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00:00This is Apropos.
00:03U.S. and Israeli officials have been expressing growing optimism that negotiations brokered
00:10by Egypt and Qatar could produce a ceasefire deal for Gaza by the end of the month.
00:15But they've also cautioned that the talks could fall through.
00:18Hamas said today it believed an agreement was still possible if the Israeli side stopped
00:23adding new conditions to the proposal.
00:26It comes as at least eight people from the same family, most of them women and children,
00:31were killed in the latest airstrikes on Gaza.
00:34Morgana Ayer has more.
00:38Rescuers battle against the flames and thick black smoke as they search for survivors and
00:43bodies.
00:44It's the scene of the latest Israeli airstrike which targeted a house in the Daraj neighborhood
00:50in Gaza City.
00:52This man is calling out, have mercy on us.
00:56According to Palestinian medics, at least 10 people were killed, several from the same
01:00family including women and children.
01:03We were surprised to find that most of the deceased were burned bodies and the bodies
01:09were of children and women.
01:11Civil defense crews are still searching for missing persons under the targeted house.
01:17Women were sleeping.
01:19This is not a combat zone.
01:20It is a civilian area with children and innocent people.
01:24A missile cut them into pieces while they were asleep.
01:31Funerals took place in Gaza City for people killed in recent Israeli airstrikes.
01:37Israel denies targeting civilians.
01:39It says that any harm to them is a result of militants operating in residential areas,
01:44a claim Hamas rejects.
01:46The two sides could be coming to a truce.
01:49That's according to White House spokesman John Kirby, who said there was no doubt they
01:54were getting closer.
01:55But he added there was caution to the optimism.
01:58From the Middle East, we're joined now by Henri Barkey, Professor of International Relations
02:04at Le Havre University.
02:06Thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening, Henri.
02:10Firstly, let's start with Gaza.
02:13Hopes again for ceasefire.
02:16Observers point out though that we have been at this position before.
02:21Israelis up until now haven't been able to secure a deal.
02:25Do you think there is more reason to be hopeful this time?
02:28There is more reason to be more hopeful because until now, if you remember, Hamas wanted a
02:36permanent ceasefire and the Israelis did not want that.
02:40And also Hamas was reluctant to release the names of the hostages.
02:46So I think they have agreed on these things.
02:50It's going to be a temporary ceasefire, I think 60 days.
02:54But the reason things have changed is because there's a great deal of reaction in Gaza to
03:01Hamas, because after 14 months of fighting, essentially people in Gaza are asking, so
03:08why is this happening?
03:09I mean, I'm blaming Hamas for having started.
03:12So finally, Hamas is starting to face domestic criticism.
03:18And that's very important to them.
03:21So they need to reorganize and rethink their strategy.
03:26So I think that's why a deal is possible.
03:30But as you said also, I mean, we've been here before and it's possible it will not happen.
03:38But if it's not this weekend, maybe later, but I still think there's a good chance it's
03:43going to happen.
03:44Under these negotiations, this time brokered by Egypt and Qatar, just talk to us a little
03:48bit about the role that Doha has been playing in all of this.
03:52Look, I don't know specifically what Doha is doing, but Doha is the most important Arab
03:59country in terms of support for Hamas.
04:02There's a historical relationship with Hamas.
04:05So they have a great deal of influence.
04:08And of course, Egypt also, because Egypt is next door and controls some of the access
04:13routes into Gaza.
04:16So I don't know specifically what Doha has been doing, but clearly Doha has always been
04:24the most important Hamas supporter in the Arab world.
04:29And Henri, earlier today, there was a lot of speculation about the Israeli prime minister's
04:32whereabouts.
04:33He later appeared inside the UN patrolled buffer zone inside Syria and the Golan Heights
04:39after being excused from testimony at his corruption trial, which is also ongoing.
04:46How much do you think that may or may not be influencing his decision and what is actually
04:50happening in Syria and also in Gaza at the moment?
04:54Oh, especially when it comes to Syria, I think what's happening domestically with his trial,
05:02with the indictments against him, this is very much a question of domestic politics.
05:08I mean, you've seen the prime minister being very, kind of very full of himself, very determined
05:17and basically doing whatever he wants, especially the decision that was taken by the Israeli
05:23cabinet the other day of supposedly doubling the number of settlers in the Golan Heights.
05:30That's completely a, shall we say, an act of theater rather than being serious, because
05:37first of all, nothing of the sort will happen anytime soon.
05:40This is a very long process, but it is a way of showing the nationalist part, at least
05:48of Israel, that he's strong, he's doing what he wants.
05:53And look, let's face it.
05:54I mean, he he has had a string of victories behind him, I mean, which enables him to be
06:00to take this attitude.
06:01I mean, Hamas has been destroyed, Hezbollah has been destroyed, Iran has been pushed out.
06:08And to some extent, what Israel did to Hezbollah and Iran explains why Assad collapsed so quickly.
06:16So but but he he's risking a great deal here, A, he's alienating the few friends that Israel
06:24has left.
06:25He is also alienating a new Syrian government regime.
06:32We don't know what it's going to be, but he's not making friends, essentially, I would say,
06:36with a new Syrian, shall we say, government.
06:41And this is an opportunity because Assad was an implacable enemy of Israel.
06:47So you have now a new Syria should be making some moves, some overtures to to the Syrians.
06:55Yes, he says he's not planning to occupy the territories that the Israeli army has
07:01moved in.
07:02And in fact, it doesn't make sense for for them to do so.
07:06But still, there's a way in which you can articulate your message in a friendlier, in
07:12a more welcoming way.
07:15But he he is because of the domestic problems he's facing.
07:19He's very unpopular, by the way.
07:21That's the other thing that people forget.
07:23I mean, the Israelis are fed up with him, but he controls the majority in parliament
07:30and the other parties that are with him are also in a kind of a trap because they don't
07:37want to go for elections and they don't want to bring down the government because they
07:40will lose if there are elections.
07:42Hence, it's a it's a zero sum game, if you want, that's going on in Israel.
07:49And he's making the most out of it.
07:52I don't think he's going to be successful.
07:53I think the Israelis are smart enough to at least those Israelis who don't support him
07:59smart enough to see through his what he's trying to do.
08:04But it will take time.
08:05And you've said recently that political leaders can be very decisive.
08:10But at the moment, we have the wrong leaders in many countries.
08:13We're going to have a new leader in the US very shortly.
08:17What kind of consequences do you think we'll see once Donald Trump comes back to the White
08:21House?
08:23So I think the right wing in Israel and and also
08:30maybe in this country think that Donald Trump will be very friendly to Israel.
08:35Yes, he will appear to be so.
08:38But look, let's remember that Donald Trump is very much interested in one thing, and
08:44that's himself. So if at some point in the future, there is an opportunity to have a
08:50major peace deal in the region, that even one that Bibi Netanyahu doesn't like and
08:55will oppose, you can be sure that Donald Trump will push for it.
09:00It doesn't matter whether he supports Bibi Netanyahu today or Donald Trump is likely
09:08to change politics or his position very easily.
09:12What I'm trying to say here is that Donald Trump is really an unknown quantity.
09:18You should not necessarily do a linear line from what he says today and assume that his
09:23policies are predictable three months or six months from now.
09:27Anything is anything is possible.
09:29He he he shifts very quickly and conditions actually, if you think about it, I mean, the
09:35Middle East has never been in a situation like today where Iran, which was the main
09:43country that undermined, if you want, stability or certainly created a chain of fire, if you
09:51want, from Tehran to Beirut, control has enormous amount of influence on Iraq, control
09:57Syria and and Lebanon through Hezbollah can no longer do that.
10:02So Iran is no can no longer be a spoiler, if you want.
10:06And under these circumstances, I would argue that this is the best moment for a
10:12comprehensive peace effort.
10:14It seems unrealistic maybe today because given all the fighting and all all the
10:21violence and the suffering that we have seen.
10:23However, if you look at it from a little bit of a dispassionate perspective, this is a
10:30great moment. When Iran is weak, Russia has been essentially removed from the Middle East
10:36and it's it's occupied by by Ukraine.
10:41So there's very little those two spoilers can do.
10:44And if I was Donald Trump, I would definitely push for a big peace effort.
10:54I doesn't necessarily mean it's going to succeed, but it's worth trying.
10:58And Turkey is also playing a key role in all of this as well.
11:02Is there a danger, though, that Ankara, it might overextend in a way and end up
11:06interfering when it comes to Syria between what's happening there in Damascus and the
11:12Kurds in the north?
11:16This is an excellent question. I mean, in an interesting way, Turkey may may emerge as a
11:22spoiler instead of Iran to some extent, not as not like Iran.
11:26But Turkey also might is is in danger of overplaying its hand.
11:33Turkey, you look at Turkish leaders, you look at the Turkish press, they're all very happy
11:39about the fact that everybody says Turkey is the biggest winner in in this Syrian crisis
11:46because Assad is gone and the new government in Syria will need Turkey.
11:52I mean, it makes sense because Turkey is the most industrialized country next to Syria,
11:58has all the way with all the Syrian needs in some construction industry, etc.
12:04But the Turks have a tendency of overplaying their hand.
12:08And we're seeing this now, especially with the Syrian Kurds.
12:13The Syrian Kurds are Syrians, first and foremost, and Turkey has made it clear that it
12:18wants the YPG, the Syrian Kurdish militia, essentially eliminated.
12:24But that militia is in alliance with the United States fighting ISIS.
12:30And the new government in Syria needs the Syrian Kurds as much as the rest of the world
12:36needs, because nobody wants ISIS to come back.
12:39And remember, some 40,000 ISIS prisoners are being essentially held in prisons in
12:49in northern Syria by the Syrian Kurdish militia.
12:54If they were to disappear, what do you think is going to happen to those 40,000?
13:01They'll spread out everywhere.
13:03They will undermine the new Syrian government.
13:05They will undermine Iraq.
13:07They will undermine even maybe Turkey.
13:09So it's not it's it's nobody wants the Syrian Kurds to this militia to disappear because
13:17they ensure a great deal of stability.
13:20But the Turks are very much afraid of the Syrian Kurds, not because the Syrian Kurds
13:28present a military threat.
13:30They represent essentially a strategic conceptual threat.
13:34That is to say, the Turks are very afraid of another autonomous Kurdish region on their
13:43borders.
13:44Henri, apologies for cutting across you there.
13:48I cut into your sentence, but we'll have to leave it there, unfortunately, for now.
13:51But thank you so much for being with us.
13:53That is Henri Barkey, professor of international relations at Lehigh University.
13:58That is it from us for now.
13:59Up next, it's Ion Africa.