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00:00Ali Fayez, thanks for joining us again from the International Crisis Group.
00:04How important is it that Biden actually says what he said?
00:10Well, it is important, but we also have to remember that President Biden has not been
00:15able to get what he wanted, a ceasefire in Gaza over the past 11 months, and also in the past few
00:23weeks he had negotiated a 21-day pause in tensions between Israel and Lebanon that Prime Minister
00:32Netanyahu also ignored. And a lot of the attacks that Israel has undertaken that has put U.S.
00:38forces in harm's way have been done either without coordination with the United States
00:43or with very little advanced notice. Remember that the attack, Iranian attack against Israel,
00:49both in April and also in October, were defeated largely because the United States got in the way
00:54and also helped shoot down a lot of those missiles. And so American forces were put in harm's way.
01:01But Prime Minister Netanyahu has a long track record of not heeding U.S. advice.
01:06This disconnect between Washington and the Israeli administration, it is dangerous, isn't it?
01:14Oh, absolutely. And the reality is that because we are so close to the U.S. elections just almost
01:21four weeks away, Prime Minister Netanyahu knows that even the little restraint that existed
01:27in the past 11 months is probably not going to exist in the coming weeks, because the only
01:33powerful tool of leverage that the United States has, which is to condition the provision of weapons
01:40to Israel, it cannot really, it has been reluctant to exercise it until now, but definitely in the
01:47next four weeks is not going to exercise it because it would have political implications
01:53in a very tight electoral situation. And so that's why he feels that he has an open hand.
02:01And President Biden is obviously warning for very good reasons that an attack on Iran's
02:06nuclear program would not be wise. It would be the last straw that would push Iran towards
02:12weaponizing its nuclear capacity. Because remember, you cannot bomb away the knowledge
02:18that Iranian scientists have acquired in terms of their nuclear advancements.
02:23Indeed. And one can only imagine the effect such an attack on Iran's facilities would have in terms
02:29of the local population, in terms of the regional population, because if you hit a nuclear facility,
02:34it doesn't just remain in one place, does it? It spreads.
02:38Yes, well, some of these facilities are underground, so nuclear contamination might
02:44be limited. But nevertheless, for local people, there is definitely a risk. And that is why
02:50in international law, it is illegal to target functional nuclear facilities. Of course,
02:59neither that nor international humanitarian law seem to hold Israel back from pursuing what it
03:06sees fit. But look, the reality is that even if the nuclear facilities are not targeted,
03:12even if Israel in a proportional manner targets Revolutionary Guard sites or the country's energy
03:21infrastructure, Iran would be compelled again to respond and retaliate. And we would be in
03:28this ballistic missile ping pong, which risks resulting in casualties and fatalities on the
03:35Israeli and American side. And at some point, we will be in a full-fledged regional war that
03:41would simply have no winners. Help us with this one, Ali. I'm wondering what actually can actually
03:46stop this escalating any further? Because if Israel will not listen to what Washington says,
03:52and you've been very clear on that question already, especially when the US is paying
03:57$3.3 billion in military aid each year and has just added an additional $8 billion to that tally
04:05to help keep Israel armed. If that kind of money doesn't talk and is not listened to
04:12by the Israeli administration, what else can stop this escalating further?
04:19Honestly, it's very hard to see that anybody else being able to pull the plug on this cycle of
04:25escalation, with the exception of the United States. I know it's hard to be hopeful, and there
04:33are now some voices in Washington having witnessed Israel's impressive tactical achievements in the
04:40past few weeks, because of its intelligence and military superiority over Iran and its allies in
04:46the region, that some people want Israel to continue and finish the job or press its advantage
04:52as much as it can. But this is really the definition of overreach. And the United States
04:59itself has committed these kind of mistakes in the region. The wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq
05:04are a good example of that. But I'm still hoping that the US would be able to, out of self-interest,
05:13to try to limit Israel in its response, so that we can draw a line under this tit-for-tat and hope
05:21that after the US elections, there will be more political pressure aimed at extinguishing the
05:28source of these tensions, which is really the war in Gaza. Ali Vaiz, thank you very much indeed for
05:34joining us. Ali Vaiz is the Director of the Iran Research Program at the International Crisis Group.
05:39Thank you for sharing your analysis with us here on France 24. Greatly appreciate it.