PokerGO: Daniel Negreanu, Jason Mercier & Nick Schulman Headline $100k Super High Roller Bowl Mixed Games!
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00:00Welcome to Las Vegas for Day 2 of the $100,000 Super High Roller Bowl Mixed Game Edition.
00:08I'm Alex Livingston, here in our studio in Las Vegas at the Aria Resort and Casino, joined alongside
00:14three-time bracelet winner and one of the best heads of hair in poker, Chris Deathdonkevich.
00:19Thanks, Alex. Super excited to be back for Day 2.
00:22Some will say the tournament's just beginning right now.
00:24Absolutely. We've got a 10-game rotation. We've got Limit and Big Bet Games.
00:28We've got Stud, Flop, and Draw all covered.
00:30Three-day event. We're on Day 2. 60-minute levels.
00:33All the re-entries are now closed. We have our final field of 29 players.
00:37And Chris, what do you expect to see today after yesterday where Michael Monchek was our runaway chip leader?
00:44Yeah, we have a big chip leader here. We have a few re-entries for the day.
00:50Four guys re-bought after busting at the end of the day last night.
00:54And a big first prize, $1.2 million.
00:57Okay, the prize pool has been finalized.
00:59Fifth place finisher will be the min casher for $225,000, all the way up to a $1.2 million first prize.
01:07Have a look at our feature table here.
01:09Daniel Legrand headlining it with $819,000 in chips,
01:13followed directly by Matt Ashton, Yuri Jilbevsky,
01:16Johannes Becker, Jason Mercier, Talal Chakerchi, and Ray D bringing up the rear.
01:21Yeah, no surprise to see Daniel here at our feature table.
01:24And had a very profitable day one.
01:26If not for Texas Mike Monchek having a massive chip lead after a huge PLO pot later in the day yesterday.
01:33Negrana might have been at the top stock to start the day, but still off to a very good start.
01:37Action folds over to Matt Ashton on the button with ace-check offsuit.
01:40And Johannes Becker picks up two 10s in the small blind.
01:42Hold on a second.
01:43Johannes is shallow enough here that we might see just a 3-bet jam.
01:47Chris, we could see some fireworks here for sure.
01:49I think Johannes is probably deciding between small 3-bet and jam.
01:53Okay, so he goes with the small 3-bet size.
01:56And it's going to fold over to Ashton who's going to have a decision here.
01:59I think button versus small blind here, there's really not much of a decision other than whether to just call or jam, right?
02:04Right. I don't think he's considering folding, but call and jam are both possible.
02:12Let's see how these two very studious online legends approach the situation.
02:23Hold on.
02:25And Johnny will certainly call this.
02:27He didn't 3-bet the full 10s.
02:28Absolutely. So we have a huge confrontation here. 432,000 chips in the middle.
02:34And I know that Johannes used a rebuy yesterday, so this is a very pivotal moment for him,
02:39risking 200k in this tournament already and hoping to stay around for a much longer day than this.
02:44As he takes a sip of some type of hot beverage.
02:48He looks a little nervous.
02:53Ooh, ace in the window.
02:54An ace in the window is not what Johannes Becker was hoping to see.
02:58He also does not have the backdoor flush drive. He's going to need to catch one of the two remaining 10s.
03:02Yeah, that is a very disappointing flop.
03:07Remaining.
03:08Turn 5.
03:09Remaining confident, remaining hopeful.
03:10Johannes down to two outs, but note that he's still sitting there just waiting, not doing the stand-up thing.
03:16Yeah, he needs to know the backpack trick maybe.
03:20And a 10 on the river! Johannes Becker!
03:22That's an exciting way to double up.
03:24It's like he knew it was coming, Chris, the way he was just sitting there waiting for that card.
03:27That is an exciting river card for sure.
03:30He looks, look at him jumping for joy.
03:32Yeah, not a lot of emotion showed throughout that hand from Johannes Becker.
03:35Yeah.
03:37Jason has another sneaky hand in the big blind with the ace, twos, three of spades.
03:40And there are a number of strong holdings out in this pot.
03:43Big hands here.
03:44Buried 10s for Talal, again a deceptive hand.
03:47Very strong three to a straight flush here for Yuri, although Shikershi does block his straight flush.
03:52And then Mercier with a hand that would be an absolute stone premium in stud high-low, but still very playable in stud.
03:57I don't think Mercier is going to be folding the spot.
04:00It's interesting to see whether he's going to come aggressive or passive.
04:02So he comes to us.
04:03By the way, Talal Shikershi is going to like his hand here, I think, because it would be very reasonable for Yuri to re-raise him with split nines.
04:09And having the 10s in the hole, he's feeling very confident against the nines that Yuri is likely to be holding.
04:14And just like you said, Chris, we do see Talal coming in for the three bet here at 36,000, trying to punish something like split nines.
04:20We see in this case he only has 28% equity against these two exact hands, but that's a little bit unusual with his hand.
04:25He would normally be doing a little bit better here.
04:27All three players are relatively short stacked, and this pot is going to be a very, very substantial result for, if not one of them, all of the players.
04:34Pretty close to a three-way flip here if you look at those equities.
04:36Yeah, all the players have kind of the type of hands you'd like to have in a big bloated pot, to be honest with you.
04:40Like a big suit of connected cards.
04:43It's Jason who catches best, in a way, with the deuces.
04:46Although, his opponents probably don't think he has three deuces, having cold called two bets, and with Yuri catching the deuce of diamonds.
04:53Yeah, really bad streak for Yuri.
04:55Nevertheless, Jason's coming with a lead, which I think is kind of cool to see how he approaches the spot.
04:59He's feeling like it just gives him more equity in the hand, even if his opponents don't believe that he has three deuces very often.
05:04He could also have some pocket pairs in the hand and just pull ahead with two pairs.
05:06Right, he's saying, I have two pair here a lot.
05:08Plus, as we can see with the actual equities, he's still 40% with the deuces and the three to a steel will.
05:12Yeah, he's doing totally fine here.
05:14It's Talal who has the most deceptive hand in some ways, but we will see how he proceeds in this spot when seeing Jason catch such a scary card.
05:23Yuri catches the flush draw.
05:26Wow!
05:27And Jason catches the flush draw.
05:28This pot is really going to escalate.
05:29I actually think that Talal has to really hate this streak.
05:32Both of his opponents caught cards that were relevant to their door, and he sees the ten fall dead.
05:36This is a disastrous result for him.
05:38The ten of spades on Jason's board is about as bad as it gets.
05:41Figuring Jason for some flush draw combos, some two pair combos, and killing his own disguise trips.
05:46And I think Talal is giving serious consideration to folding this situation.
05:49He's getting an incredible price to continue, but it's a little unclear how he can get this hand to showdown without running into some premium hands here, given the boards that he's looking at.
05:58Yeah, we can see the cards here, Chris, but if Talal can find this fold, wow.
06:02I think that's really an incredible fold.
06:03A very, very good fold.
06:04And again, just a testament to Talal's excellent post-flop ability.
06:08Yeah, absolutely.
06:09Now, Yuri and Mercy have almost the same stack sizes.
06:12I don't think Yuri believes he has any fold equity in this situation with his flush draw, so I expect to see him play pretty passively.
06:17I like that, and that's exactly what we would expect in a tournament, where he can actually save some bets, too.
06:22And he catches the green, which is a card that could get him into some trouble here.
06:26Although, now I believe he has the best hand, right?
06:28He does have the best hand.
06:30It's also a blocker to Mercy's possible spade draw, so I think this is a really nice catch for Yuri.
06:35And good recognition from Jay, also.
06:39Now, if I'm Yuri here, very interesting situation if I'm Yuri here.
06:43In a normal cash game situation, I think his hand is good enough to bet here, because he can put in a bet now and decide on the river if he wants to put in one more bet when he improves, or just take a free showdown.
06:52So it's that spot we've talked about, where if you think you're not going to get led into that often on the next street, you can bet, and then you can make the decision.
06:59Note that the betting lead is held by the player who has the better board.
07:02So on 6th and 7th Street, the boards don't change, meaning the face-up cards.
07:06So Yuri knows that Jason will have to act first, so he has position.
07:10He's betting now with the ability to value bet the good rivers and check back the bad rivers, and I think this is a nice play from Yuri.
07:15So Yuri has bricked, although he catches a very nice blocker with the five of spades.
07:19And Jason is going to end up with just a pair of twos, or a much stronger holding here.
07:23And I think Yuri really is going to want to check this back, and just hope to beat some sort of missed flush draw from Jason.
07:31And Jason has bricked, so that was a huge, huge pot for Yuri.
07:35A monumental pot there for Yuri, and as you can see, 261,000 chip pot.
07:39Crazy how big these pots can get in the limit games at this stage in the tournament, especially when on 3rd Street it went three ways and three bets each.
07:47Absolutely, and Talal managed to save himself from getting down into that danger zone by making a very, very nice disciplined laydown
07:54with a hand that was really a very strong holding on 3rd Street, but he correctly recognized that it weakened and weakened as the streets went on.
08:01A very cool multi-way situation there to see how all the players navigated a tough spot.
08:05By the way, if you were going to play open jams, I think Talal has an okay hand to jam here.
08:09This is a hand that would prefer to realize its equity, I think, and if you're beat, you're beat.
08:14If Talal has a four card ten, he cannot stand a three bet with this hand.
08:17Right, but notice he does just keep his foot on the gas.
08:24As Matt Ashen also picks up a hand which could consider just semi-wolf jamming in this situation.
08:28How will he approach it? We saw Daniel with one hand to go with a similar hand.
08:31Matt Ashen's holding is a little bit weaker, but only a little.
08:34And Talal's opening one position earlier.
08:36I still think he has kind of that look on his face like maybe going all in.
08:40Yep, and he does.
08:41And that three blocker might help inform his decision making.
08:44Absolutely, and no limit single draw. Having a pair blocker is a key card in your hand.
08:47It reduces the chance that your opponent has a made hand.
08:50And it also gives them one less perhaps good card to catch.
08:53Talal a little bit disgusted to get jammed on here and decides to go with this four card ten.
08:57So we're going to have a bit of a flip here.
08:59Despite the fact that Matt has a four card nine versus a four card ten, these equities run pretty close.
09:03And Talal's hand, he's always going to break this off. He's never going to pat that queen ten.
09:07I think he's better off drawing to the ten eight.
09:10The fact that he doesn't have a straight draw, it is correct to draw here, but it is kind of close.
09:14Yeah, perhaps if he had somehow raised and called the all in with a queen jack, he would have then kept that.
09:19He would have to have to stand pat. And actually he's thinking about it.
09:22Looks like he is considering his options here.
09:27The problem with breaking, and I do think breaking is probably the correct play,
09:30but the problem with breaking perhaps in his mind is that he knows he's going to be up against a worse draw.
09:34There's also a psychological factor at play here.
09:36A lot of players in poker feel more comfortable standing pat.
09:39You just feel like I have something.
09:41If I break the best hand and end up making a pair, I'll feel very silly.
09:44And that is what Talal ends up going with here.
09:46I believe he's just thinking about his equity,
09:48but I think that this might be a sliver of an error mathematically speaking.
09:52Now, if he had had the jack ten eight five four, he would have had it.
09:54Then he would definitely be more comfortable patting, yeah.
09:57And Matt makes it.
09:58So it was irrelevant which option Talal went with when Matt catches the nine seven.
10:02And we have lost Talal Shikurshi.
10:04England on England violence there as Talal is eliminated in 19th place.
10:08And we're now down to three tables of six.
10:10Daniel picks up a premium draw here.
10:12Big draw here, absolutely.
10:14Notice when you have a seven draw, you're not really thinking too much about your walk or your fifth card,
10:19whether or not you're going to be raising or not.
10:21Negreanu with a very different strategy in this game from what we've seen.
10:24Coming in for a full three X open raise from an early position.
10:28Yeah, I think there's some merit to it with that big ante in there.
10:31Will Ray feel compelled to defend a relatively weak three card six against this large sizing?
10:36Daniel has been very snug to start our day and Ray's probably aware of that.
10:41Nevertheless, hands do hold a number, a lot of equity in no limit single draw.
10:44And even if you think you're up against a strong one card draw,
10:47these hands do have a deceptive amount of value.
10:49And Ray agrees with that and just feels like he has too much hand to fold here.
10:53I kind of agree with that.
10:54Your opponents can be drawing one a lot of the time.
10:57Obviously, Ray would rather have something like deuce five seven where he doesn't have the straight possibilities.
11:00But he does have that additional five, which is nice because as we can see,
11:03it's one of the cards that Daniel could use to fill his hand.
11:05So he's blocking.
11:06These D2s against D1s, you know, you're in the mid 30s equity wise.
11:10You're not dead.
11:11Right.
11:12And you're often able to get some check raises in when you do make very strong hands.
11:15Good point. And he has made an unfortunate hand here.
11:18I thought he made it, but instead he has made a seven high straight.
11:20He's made a straight.
11:21So we'll see if Ray D decides to bluff with this hand being at the bottom of his range.
11:24As the player who drew two against the player who drew one,
11:27you often play quite passively and do a lot of checking.
11:29Doesn't mean you can't have some bets, though.
11:31And then if you do check, you still give yourself the option to check raise.
11:34Does Daniel go for value here with this jack seven against somebody who drew two?
11:38It seems like it's at least a consideration.
11:39It's at least a consideration.
11:40I think that he is going to feel like he doesn't need to go for value here as he's mostly going to get a fold.
11:46But he goes for a very small value bet, only betting twelve.
11:49Will this tempt Ray D to go for a bluff?
11:51He has seen that pair blocker, as you mentioned earlier.
11:53He certainly has a hand that cannot win in any other way.
11:56Is he willing to risk it with a straight in his hand?
11:59This hand does not have particularly good blocker properties to bluff with,
12:02but he might feel compelled anyway.
12:03Now if you look at Daniel's bet as face value as being some type of thin value bet going for a small sizing,
12:10then you would definitely at least want to consider bluffing with this hand
12:13where you've also seen the additional five.
12:15However, you obviously know that Daniel is a good enough player to be doing something like this to induce,
12:19and that Daniel might just decide, my bet looks weak, I'm going to call the raise anyway.
12:23So really interesting spot for Ray.
12:25Absolutely considering it.
12:26I would have a hard time not bluffing this hand facing this small bet,
12:29and maybe that's what makes this bet so nice from Daniel.
12:31I wonder if Ray's considering whether he should shove as a bluff, or whether he should raise a small size.
12:36Right.
12:39And part of my consideration for whether or not I make this bluff
12:41is how thin do I think my opponent can go for value for, as well as how many bluffs do they have.
12:45By the way, Daniel has a pretty tough decision now.
12:47Yeah, so Daniel now doesn't...
12:49This is certainly not what he wanted to see.
12:50And he value raises.
12:51Ray did choose a relatively small raise size, given how...
12:54Which also looks strong in some ways.
12:56Right.
12:59Now, it's possible that using a size like this, Ray's really just trying to get Daniel mostly to fold his bluffs,
13:03thinking he's not going to have a ton of fold equity against his value bets.
13:06But Daniel, towards the bottom of his value betting range, was just the jack low.
13:09Yeah, Daniel did bet a hand that was very thin, and it's certainly a good candidate to fold, I think.
13:14Oh, and he lays it down.
13:15Wow, what a great play from Ray D.
13:16So Ray has had to put a couple adventures so far in this round.
13:19This one worked out better for him.
13:20Action now folds around to Daniel.
13:22Negron is just going to jam here, right?
13:23Mercier has a short stack in the big blind.
13:25And Mercier certainly has an easy, easy call here.
13:27So we have an all-in moment for Jason Mercier here.
13:30Absolutely.
13:33I don't think Daniel would stand pat.
13:35Oh, he surprises me.
13:36He does stand pat.
13:38So he makes a very similar decision to Talal.
13:41Maybe he feels that Mercier would call some draw twos in this situation.
13:45That's true.
13:47Don't want it.
13:48But I think in general, these pat queens are making a small error not going for the four-card tens.
13:53Equity is going to be a little better drawn to the ten.
13:55You're right that this situation is slightly different than Talal's, where he doesn't know how many cards Jason is going to draw.
14:00However, in this situation, he also doesn't know that Jason could just stand pat behind him, right?
14:03And he would be much more likely to be drawing live with a ten draw.
14:06Yeah, I would have been tempted to draw one to the ten as well.
14:08Uh-oh, we've lost your pick.
14:10Come on, Ray.
14:12What was it?
14:13Squeeze the no-sider.
14:14Sorry, bro.
14:15A bad squeeze, yeah.
14:16So a no-sider, an ace, deuce, or three.
14:18And none of those cards being good for Jason's actual plan.
14:20Good luck, guys.
14:21Excuse Jason.
14:22See, Jason Mercier eliminated in 18th place.
14:24Aggressive lines.
14:25Let's see how Sternheimer approaches the situation, making an 8-7-6 right away in this big pot,
14:29which is a pretty dicey hand for the situation.
14:32I agree.
14:33I think, Chris, versus the range of hands that Scott would be playing as a pat,
14:36it's not clear that Sternheimer is ahead of that with the 8-7-6 four-deuce.
14:40Typically, we don't like breaking eights, and Sternheimer does go for the raise.
14:44Yeah, he has played a ton of hours with Scott Siever in high-stakes cash,
14:47and I guess maybe he has a perception of what kind of hands Scott would pat in this spot.
14:51And Scott immediately has a horrible decision here.
14:53As his hand has kind of nowhere to go,
14:55he could consider breaking the nine and drawing for the gut shot and hoping to catch the miracle deuce.
15:00Probably figures at least one, if not both, of his opponents have a deuce.
15:03But good point that these guys have played a lot of hours against each other,
15:06and a lot of, perhaps, past history influencing the way that they think about each other's ranges.
15:12Reissner here still drawing smooth enough.
15:14Sternheimer has a very uncomfortable hand,
15:16but has made a good decision so far against Scott's actual hand, right?
15:20I wonder if he's considering almost like bluffing with his hand here, you know what I mean?
15:24Standing pat behind and then doing something.
15:25I was thinking that, although his body language has indicated that perhaps he doesn't like this pot.
15:30He does end up just drawing, hoping to catch one of the two remaining deuces in the deck.
15:33Meanwhile, we have John Reissner kind of stuck in the middle with this gut shot draw
15:36that's hoping to catch a seven or an eight.
15:38Now, facing a bet here, if Scott doesn't improve,
15:40even though the pot's quite bloated, I think it's at least worth considering folding.
15:43Yeah.
15:46So Scott has decided to call, which makes me think he's probably going to continue drawing.
15:51Believing that he's just getting compelling pot odds.
15:54Certainly, he could win sometimes if he catches the eight.
15:57Yeah.
15:58Even though he's going to make the worst possible eight,
16:00so he would only really improve to Phil's pat nines.
16:04Phil could also be snowing some non-zero percentage of the time.
16:06There's a lot going on in his hand.
16:08John doesn't love this either.
16:09Yeah, what does John want to do given the situation?
16:11The pot is very, very large.
16:13I think I would call and draw John's hand.
16:15You want to break it?
16:16Easy to say when I can see that Phil has this 87, but...
16:19By the way, even if he just calls and stands pat here,
16:22Phil Sternheimer has to at least consider the fact that Reissner could have him beat.
16:25So this would be really interesting.
16:26If John pats, does Phil break?
16:29I think John has played...
16:31He looks so tentative in this situation
16:33that maybe Phil just feels a little bit more confident than he would
16:36if he had been a little bit more quick with his actions.
16:39Yeah, the body language is really interesting here.
16:41If John had something like 8-7-5...
16:43Wow, I think he's going to break it.
16:44He would just keep the 8-7-5.
16:45He's going to break it.
16:46Wow, this is going to work out amazing for John Reissner.
16:48And Phil is going to be beside himself if he loses this pot after breaking the best hand.
16:53And now Scott doesn't know what to do.
16:55Well, I think he does know what to do.
16:57I wonder if he was considering making a bluff by standing pat
17:00and then trying to represent something stronger on the river,
17:02but now he feels like he has to draw and just hope for the miracle deuce, I think.
17:07This is actually a great spot for Scott if he does draw, like I mentioned,
17:10because now he could catch the 8.
17:13This has been a fascinating hand, a triple draw.
17:15If Phil Sternheimer does not improve here,
17:17he is going to be very, very disappointed how this hand ran out.
17:20And look how big this pot has grown.
17:22Over a starting stack in the middle right now.
17:24John, of course, checking.
17:27We don't have his card yet.
17:28I think we can see that Seaver has caught the 10, though.
17:31Right. We know that Phil had an 8.
17:33Is this a different 8 that he caught, or is this the card that he drew?
17:36I can't remember the suit.
17:37I don't think the hand is updated.
17:39I think it was the card that he threw away.
17:41As his hand is still in gray.
17:44Correct, yeah.
17:46Even if he caught the 8 back here, I certainly don't think he would bet.
17:49I think he would bet a 7.
17:51Chuck.
17:529-6.
17:53Oh, no.
17:54And Phil is going to really hate hearing that.
17:57Nice hand.
17:58Yeah, Phil is disappointed for sure.
18:00Fuck.
18:01That was a very tough spot for really all three players in that hand.
18:04Absolutely, a very awkward hand.
18:05I knew it was unlikely, but I swear I made 10-7 on the end and thought it was a chance.
18:09Well, some of the recreational players can have a bit of a psychological advantage
18:12against some of the pros who are perhaps shot-taking, selling action,
18:15that sort of thing,
18:16where the recreational players are not feeling that same financial pressure.
18:19So, Johannes Becker is opening a hand that normally would not be a good hand to open.
18:22However, when you have such a shallow chip stack,
18:25you have to be very cognizant of not folding until the blinds, right?
18:29Because at some point you're just going to be all-in,
18:31and you may not pick up a better hand than this in this situation.
18:33Yeah, you're going to be forced all-in at some point, right?
18:35Right, exactly.
18:36And we see Texas Monchek pick up another premium hand and have Johnny all-in.
18:39Now, the only question for Johnny with his hand is,
18:41would he decide to keep the 9 given the roughness of his underlying draw?
18:44And it looks like the answer is yes.
18:46And I think he knows that he can be up against some draw 2s,
18:48and against those draw 2s, keeping the 9 makes a lot of sense, doesn't it?
18:51Correct.
18:52And also, if you make a 9 and you end up drawing dead in this situation,
18:55obviously your tournament is over,
18:56but typically it's different than a cash game situation
18:58where you would have reverse applied odds for the future bets.
19:01Great point.
19:02Unfortunately for Johnny, he is dead here.
19:04And this is, I pretty confidently have to say,
19:07this will be the end of Johannes Becker.
19:09Yeah, he's got to pat this hand and just hope his opponent made some type of 9.
19:12I don't really think you can draw to this 3, 4, 6, 7.
19:15It's so rough.
19:16Yeah, he can't like the situation, but...
19:21And you can see that when Texas quickly checked back that,
19:25or sorry, patted back,
19:27Johnny knew he was almost certainly dead.
19:31Good game to a good friend of mine, Johannes Becker.
19:34Johannes Becker eliminated on day 2,
19:36and I think we're down to 13 players now.
19:38Exactly.
19:39And Schulman with a defend in the big blind.
19:41Not a super fun hand, but still,
19:43if you catch that deuce, now all of a sudden you have a premium draw.
19:45And these rougher draws are the sort of hands that you feel more comfortable playing against
19:48a late position raiser than you do against an early position player.
19:53And we see that Hannigan does have a premium draw here.
19:55An absolute premium.
19:56Powerhouse on the button here.
20:04Notice that Nick just checks in the dark,
20:06and Hannigan has a spot where he can just bet in the dark
20:08in these 2-1 situations.
20:10Wow!
20:11Nick Schulman not only did he catch the deuce that you were describing,
20:13he caught the 4 as well.
20:14And this is going to probably be the end of John Hannigan
20:18because it's going to be impossible for him to get away from this draw before the river,
20:21and I'm not sure he has enough bets to even make it to the river here.
20:23What an incredible pull from Nick Schulman.
20:27I think that John will be able to save some chips here if he breaks up the hand.
20:30Ah, you're right.
20:31Unless he happens to make a hand,
20:33which he really does not want to do now.
20:35John doesn't know it, but he doesn't want to make his hand right now.
20:37He absolutely does not want to catch this 7.
20:38The worst thing he could catch would be a 3 or a 5.
20:41Correct. He would have a tough decision where he would catch an 8 on the river.
20:44Now this is a spot where Hannigan expects a fair chunk of the time Nick to check
20:48because Nick's going to have a lot of weak hands
20:50and John's going to have a lot of strong draws.
20:51When Nick bets, he's really saying...
20:53Uh-oh.
20:54Oh, wow.
20:56He caught his 7 low, and he is out.
20:59So Hannigan raised all in there and said number 4,
21:03and he could tell by the way that Nick called so quickly.
21:05He wasn't sure that that number 4 was going to be good.
21:08Right. Yeah.
21:09And of course Nick trying to courteously really put the action as quickly as possible
21:13as John is out the door.
21:14I think that decision's been made for him, not that I want to completely jinx him.
21:18It looks like Albert has found...
21:19Yeah, Albert has to go with his hand here against Ace King.
21:23Blind versus blind.
21:24Certainly no faulting this call,
21:26and still has a sizable amount of equity here
21:28even though he's against the Ace King.
21:33Good luck, Albert.
21:38Albert seemingly resigned to it here
21:41after a couple tough razz hands.
21:50Jack in the window, however, is a welcome sight.
21:57Albert pulling ahead for the time being.
21:59Nick does have that backdoor spade draw, backdoor wheel draw,
22:02backdoor Broadway draw as well as the two overcards.
22:08Ooh.
22:09There is one of those overcards as Nick takes the lead with the King.
22:13And unlike Johannes Becker who just sat there patiently,
22:15Albert does appear to be doing the stand-up move.
22:26And it was a picture card, but not the one that Albert was looking for
22:29as Albert Daher is eliminated.
22:32So our players continue to drop quickly.
22:37And as you suggested, we are going to end up with some pretty short-handed play
22:40relatively soon here in this tournament.
22:42Yeah, and this is how.
22:43Oh, hello.
22:44And Mike's got the parry jacks.
22:45Now, is this a spot, Chris, where you might consider
22:47employing some limps with range as Shulman here?
22:50I mean, I think that he maybe would have considered that.
22:53However, given the strength of his hand,
22:55he's very happy to play a big one here.
22:56Yeah, just in general, I mean.
22:58Yeah, I don't fault Texas Mike for his two-bet here.
23:00Nor do I.
23:01So in general here, yes, when you have a small card underneath,
23:05notice Nick Shulman is going with the three-bet here.
23:07So he is really just saying, I have the best hand right now,
23:11and I'm happy to build a pot.
23:12Yeah, and there was a dead queen, but Shulman's still here, 64% equity.
23:16And look at this.
23:17Right away, Shulman banks queens and fours.
23:20Now, if Monchik were to spike a jack, it would be a very hidden hand.
23:25It would look like he had two smaller pair oftentimes.
23:28Very true.
23:29And Nick could lose big pot.
23:30Nick fills up immediately.
23:31Now, we actually kind of quite like it.
23:33Oh, wow.
23:34Now, Monchik has caught jacks and nines.
23:36And, look, Monchik is leading right out
23:38because some of his range is going to be three nines.
23:40So I'm very curious to see how Nick Shulman handles this situation.
23:42Obviously, we can see he has a monster,
23:44but it's interesting to think about how he would want to play his range in this spot.
23:47I agree with that.
23:48One thing that Nick wants to think about is he wants to make sure
23:50that some of Monchik's weaker hands stay in.
23:52Let's say Monchik just had like a 9-8-7 and picked up a gutter here.
23:55And I like this flat call from Nick.
23:57He's a little concerned that if he raises right now,
23:59some of the bottom of Monchik's hand, a range that is drawing almost dead,
24:02is just going to fold immediately.
24:03So my guess is that Shulman is going to raise on 6-3.
24:05What do you think?
24:06I could see it going either way.
24:08I've seen players continue to call with such a powerhouse in this spot.
24:12But now we see Mike slow down.
24:14Yeah, interesting.
24:15He's not going to get the chance because Monchik's actual hand,
24:17it makes a lot of sense to check here.
24:18He's worried about being against queens up, right?
24:19Certainly.
24:21And facing a bet here, Monchik might just feel that the pot is too big
24:24that he needs to draw to his full house.
24:26Yeah, this is a tough spot.
24:31Did he just check raise?
24:32Wow.
24:33Okay, so this is a little bit out of line to me.
24:35He's basically bluffing, right?
24:36He's turning his hand into a bluff.
24:37Yeah, this is a little bit surprising to me.
24:39Nick is actually a little bit concerned.
24:41And Nick 3-bets.
24:42No, Nick 3-bets to 180.
24:43Oh, he's not concerned.
24:44I apologize.
24:45He's trying to get some immediate value from trip 9s,
24:47and now Monchik is going to continue to draw to his full house.
24:52Texas Mike may have misstepped a little bit in this hand.
24:57If Mike does not improve on the river,
24:59we are going to have a little bit of a shift in the chip stack.
25:02Yeah, this is a large pot.
25:08Mike needs a 9 or a jack.
25:17Let's see, Nick put in the final bet here.
25:20Sure.
25:21Can I get a different one?
25:24It sounds like he did not belong.
25:25Mike's asked to scan his card and asks for a different one,
25:27so we know he's not raising.
25:31Don't look now, but Nick Shulman is going to have 1.6 million after this hand.
25:34Yeah.
25:36And Monchik will be down to 2.2.
25:38He did cold deck Texas Mike in this hand a little bit,
25:41but I think Texas Mike lost one or two bets more than many players would.
25:45Yeah, he made an interesting raise on 6
25:47that I think was a bluff raise designed to put some pressure on queens and 4s.
25:50Yeah, and now he's just looking at the size of the pot,
25:52and he's just a little bit unsure about letting his hand go.
25:55He's got to ask himself, what can Nick possibly be bluffing with?
25:58Nick put in a bet 3 bet on 6th Street.
26:01It is almost impossible for jacks and 9s to be good here.
26:05Right, that 6th Street play really surprised me.
26:07Even with 3 9s, you're not liking life here,
26:09given how strong Nick's line was.
26:11Shulman probably believes that Texas Mike has 3 9s here.
26:14And I think that's why Shulman just chose to fast play,
26:16because Shulman doesn't have that many combos on 6 that beat 3 9s,
26:21but he does happen to have one of the ones that does.
26:23Yeah, he was really looking to maximize with that full house
26:25after almost slow playing, or definitely slow playing on 5th Street.
26:30Texas Mike just feeling like he's getting that incredible price,
26:33but he has no idea what he can beat, but still considering paying off here.
26:36Yeah, he said, I'm getting a million to one.
26:39And he says exactly what we've both thought in Big Limit Pots before,
26:42I'm getting a million to one, but I'm never good.
26:44And then I usually call.
26:45I know that feeling, but I think this one,
26:47he really can be quite confident that he's never good.
26:49Once he check raises and calls the 3 bet, he's really just trying to fill out.
26:52That's a weird hand.
26:53He has a weaker hand than it's perceived that he has.
26:56When people make full houses on start, it feels pretty weird.
27:00So Nick's acknowledging that he made a boat.
27:02And look at these chip stacks as Nick is creeping up on Texas Mike
27:05and probably is maybe into second place in the overall tournament.
27:08Anything about this 8 7 6 5 here from Nick Shulman?
27:11Yeah, I think it makes a good open.
27:12It's not a particularly strong draw, but you can just play for a single raise.
27:16And also knowing that perhaps Yuri has to play a little tighter than normal
27:19in the big blind with the ICM considerations.
27:21Certainly. Let's see how Yuri approaches the spot.
27:22So notice that Yuri is doing what I just said,
27:24which is that he feels that his D3 can be defended for this price,
27:27even with the ICM considerations.
27:29And Nick is going to have an interesting decision here.
27:31Nick could consider standing Pat with this ace low against a 3 card draw.
27:35Now, if you stood Pat here, you're just hoping your opponent pairs,
27:37or are you ever going to turn this into a bluff?
27:39Both options are available.
27:40Instead, Nick decides to draw at the open ender.
27:42And certainly if he were to make a straight on the river,
27:44then we would expect to see a bluff.
27:45I think I like the draw better because he, exactly,
27:47he can still bluff when he makes the straight.
27:49And then he still allows himself to make some very strong hands.
27:51Yes, and he does make a pair of 7s.
27:52So let's see if Nick is willing to bluff this hand.
27:54I think that he probably will.
27:563 versus 1.
27:58He certainly perceives that he needs to bluff often in this situation.
28:01And let's see how he chooses sizing-wise,
28:03and what Yuri elects to do with a hand that could be an okay bluff catcher.
28:06Certainly the straight would be an automatic bluff.
28:08The funny thing with 7s is that normally you wouldn't beat very many hands.
28:11But when your opponent draws 3,
28:12they're actually going to make some big pairs and some two-pair type hands.
28:15But still, not a ton of showdown value for Nick.
28:17And because he's able to value bet wide,
28:19he's also able to find a lot of bluffs.
28:20Yes, so he's just going with a half-pot size,
28:22which makes a lot of sense for a wide value range.
28:24I think Yuri might be able to sniff this one out, though.
28:27He unblocks a lot of the pairs that his opponent could easily have.
28:30It is a wide-range situation.
28:32And you don't defend a d3 to just auto-fold
28:34when you make a good bluff catcher as an experienced player.
28:37King-9 is actually probably above the average hand class.
28:41Definitely is.
28:42Or the median hand class, I would say.
28:43But he does get away from it,
28:44and Nick is able to get one through there with a hand that
28:46really, when you have that 8-7-6-5 in your hand,
28:48you're going to be bluffing pretty often
28:49because you don't make too many good hands.
28:51For those that are watching,
28:52Philip is the one that put this tournament together.
28:54For those of you viewing and enjoying the show,
28:56we've got great commentary from two guys who are really good
29:00but not good enough to play this tournament, clearly.
29:02Right?
29:03Because otherwise, they would have been in here.
29:05No, I'm kidding. They're very good.
29:06I actually listened to their commentary.
29:08It's worthwhile.
29:09Listen in, learn some stuff,
29:10and join us next year at the Super High Roller Bowl Mixed Games.
29:14Okay, so Matt Ashen does get the ace as his door card.
29:17And he's going to be tempted to play a very wide range of hands in this spot.
29:20I think so, too.
29:21Any one big card would be enough for me.
29:23Yeah, any over to everybody else's cards.
29:26Possibly any three.
29:27Yeah, and here he comes with the jack-5, which is super reasonable.
29:30Yeah, this is more than enough hand.
29:31Everyone should be aware that he's desperate here, I think.
29:33And I agree.
29:34Probably just any three is good enough here,
29:36given the stack size at 35 pages.
29:38I think he's not going to get through Chad Hill.
29:40Correct.
29:42And this might lure Benny into the pot
29:44with his slightly disconnected three-card bluff.
29:48If I were Chad, I might have been tempted to two-bet this hand
29:50just to get Benny off of any amount of equity.
29:52Good point.
29:57Benny probably realizing Chad's not coming in too loose,
29:59but he does feel like his hand is connected.
30:01Here's the other thing for Benny,
30:02is he figures that Chad is going to play a little more honestly
30:05with this one player all-in already,
30:07and he's going to be able to realize his equity a little better
30:09without having to call bets.
30:10Extremely good point.
30:13Nevertheless, Matt Ashton is definitely going to need to improve.
30:16He catches the four that Chad would love to see.
30:21And I think Chad should just bet here,
30:22even though there's no side pot,
30:24just clearing up his equity with the pair of fours,
30:26where Benny's most likely hand is going to be something like a pair of threes
30:29or something weak.
30:31So Matt Ashton is in bad shape here,
30:32but he does have 37% equity.
30:35He has live cards outside of the four.
30:38Matt Ashton looking to improve and fade elimination,
30:40and if he does not,
30:41we are going to be down to our final table of seven.
30:43And I'm going to be out 20 bucks.
30:46Oh no, your guy has to win.
30:47My guy still has to win.
30:49It's a long way to go there.
30:51Nice-looking card for Ashton's board,
30:53but it doesn't actually do anything for him.
30:54Right.
30:55He's got a backdoor flush draw now,
30:57and now he's got a backdoor wheel draw.
30:58He's picked up a wheel gutter,
30:59and Chad just has the fours.
31:01He's just got to beat four or so.
31:03So Chad should peel first,
31:04because if he makes two pair,
31:06then Ashton can still win on a duck.
31:09But if you catch two pair...
31:12Queens up.
31:13Queens up. That's really...
31:14And that really almost locks him out.
31:15Ashton needs the duck.
31:18We're down to seven.
31:20I'm going to go P.
31:24Good run, Matt Ashton.
31:26Close to the money.
31:27And I thought Matt played really well.
31:28Just had a bad run of cards there
31:29towards the second half of the day.
31:32Maybe even the hijack.
31:33I don't think Yuri would have played this hand anyway
31:35a four, five, seven,
31:36facing a raise and a re-raise.
31:38But given the tournament situation right now,
31:39I think it's very clear
31:40that he needs to play tight in this spot.
31:42However, I am wrong.
31:43Yuri has surprised me with his loose play
31:45in the bidugi rounds
31:46that we have seen at the table
31:47that he's been a part of both times.
31:49I tend to agree.
31:50One of the problems with Yuri's hand
31:51is that oftentimes
31:52you're just going to be up against Phil
31:53with a stronger draw one,
31:54like we see here.
31:55And you're really going to need
31:56to make a bidugi to win the pot,
31:57as it's going to be very hard
31:58to make the best three card.
31:59By the way, Manchek is in a bad spot here.
32:01He has decided to forebet
32:02and play his hand as a pat.
32:03However, a pat king against two opponents
32:05is a very difficult hand to have hold of.
32:07Well, I agree with you, Chris.
32:08I think it's hard to find another option
32:10to play this hand
32:11because breaking...
32:12Once you open it, yeah.
32:13...really just not breaking
32:14to anything good, right?
32:15So it's kind of that
32:16ultimate pat and pray scenario.
32:17He knows that Yuri just cold calling
32:19likely is still drawing.
32:20Yes.
32:21And he has to just hope
32:22that Phil is also drawing.
32:23I'm a little surprised
32:24that Yuri's involved in this hand.
32:25This is definitely a situation
32:26that you were just talking about
32:27him maybe wanting to avoid.
32:28Playing a big pot
32:29where he could get himself
32:30right down in that danger zone
32:31with the next two spots
32:32not paying any money
32:33in this tournament.
32:34Right.
32:35Perhaps he felt compelled
32:36by the price already being in there
32:37for the big blind,
32:38but it does seem a little loose
32:39facing what's already
32:40going to be a tighter range
32:41than normal from Phil.
32:42Yes.
32:43That makes sense.
32:44Well, Yuri and Phil
32:45are both looking to improve.
32:46Monchik is hoping to hang on
32:47with his king-queen bidougie here.
32:48Now, the problem for Monchik
32:49is not only does he have to pat and pray,
32:50but he has to also worry
32:51about getting bluffed.
32:52Yeah.
32:53And it's really hard
32:54to just call down here
32:55when somebody else says they're pat
32:56because their value range
32:57is going to be so far ahead of you.
32:58We see that Sternheimer
32:59does improve right away
33:00to a 10 bidougie.
33:01Interesting decision here
33:02because in some ways
33:03he would prefer to play
33:04as a call and pat, right?
33:05Because he would like Monchik
33:06to keep in worse bidougies.
33:07On the other hand,
33:08protecting his hand from Yuri,
33:09the third player in the pot,
33:10is vital.
33:11I strongly prefer
33:12raising here as Phil
33:13for two reasons.
33:14One is you get more information
33:15from Monchik,
33:16and two is being able
33:17to get Yuri out of the pot
33:18is super, super valuable.
33:19Notice that Yuri has reduced
33:20into a very strong three-card,
33:21ace, four, five.
33:22I wonder how he's going to feel
33:23about this spot
33:24given that he's already put in
33:25four small bets
33:26on the preflop street.
33:27Yuri might be able to
33:28get out of the pot
33:30Yuri might be slightly
33:31regretting his decision
33:32to get involved
33:33because now that he's here,
33:34it's very difficult to know
33:35how he should proceed.
33:36It's very hard to find a way
33:37out of this hand at this point
33:38with such a premium three-card.
33:39The problem is that
33:40Phil is really representing
33:41a bidougie at this point,
33:42and the average bidougie
33:43Phil's going to make
33:44drawing one
33:45is much stronger
33:46than the average dealt bidougie.
33:47So against a hand like that,
33:48Yuri might be,
33:49you know,
33:50he might have as few
33:51as four or five outs.
33:52Correct.
33:53He's getting an incredible price
33:54in this bloated pot,
33:55but this is a tough situation.
33:56Sternheimer desperately
33:57wants him out.
33:58Now, very interesting
33:59to see also
34:00what Michael Monchik does.
34:01Yeah, Monchik really has
34:02no good options
34:03at this point.
34:06If Monchik three bets
34:07this street,
34:08and pats,
34:09does Phil ever
34:10break off that tent?
34:11I think it's hard to break.
34:12Or do you think
34:13it's just too strong?
34:14I think it's hard to break
34:15against a player
34:16with Monchik's image.
34:17I tend to agree with you.
34:18And Monchik just calls,
34:19and now he's in a really,
34:20really good spot.
34:21Yeah, I mean,
34:22if I'm Monchik here,
34:23I suppose I think
34:24the best option
34:25is to draw two.
34:26I tend to agree with you.
34:27Or perhaps just
34:28to have folded
34:29to Phil's raise
34:30as tight as that sounds.
34:31But you know that
34:32Yuri's still drawing strong.
34:33He has not.
34:34He's decided to stand pat
34:35and see what Phil's up to.
34:36And he's hoping that Phil
34:37breaks something.
34:38Phil confidently pats behind.
34:39It is Yuri who is really
34:40in a difficult situation now.
34:42Now I think that
34:43Monchik can just get away
34:45facing another bet
34:46here from Sternheimer.
34:47Sternheimer is wondering
34:48whether or not he should bet.
34:49He has a little bit
34:50of incentive maybe to check.
34:51He's failed in his attempt
34:52to get Yuri out of the pot.
34:53Maybe preserving his chips here
34:54is worth a little something.
34:55His hand is marginal.
34:57This is true.
34:58And he does decide to check.
34:59So he's actually
35:00really preserving his chip stack
35:01as best as he can here.
35:02One other benefit to this check
35:03is he can actually convince
35:04Monchik that maybe
35:05not with this exact hand,
35:06but if Monchik had some other
35:07pat hand that was breakable,
35:08now Monchik might think that
35:09Phil actually doesn't have
35:10that strong of a hand.
35:11Wow, Yuri makes it.
35:12Convince him to pat it.
35:13Yuri has spiked
35:14a seven of spades
35:15to win a massive pot
35:16and decimate Phil Sternheimer.
35:18I believe he should come out
35:19betting here.
35:20I don't know.
35:22I believe he should come out
35:23betting here after seeing
35:24that passive action.
35:25I completely agree
35:26because it looks like both players
35:27have very marginal pat hands.
35:30This is a great spot for Yuri.
35:32Phil is puking on the inside
35:33right now.
35:34A very disappointing spot for Phil.
35:37The problem is that Phil can
35:38actually still beat
35:39the occasional value bet here.
35:40Once they've gone check,
35:41check on the previous streak,
35:42Phil could have some jacks.
35:43This would be a very,
35:44very nice fold, I think,
35:45to save his 80K.
35:48Look at this fold.
35:49Wow.
35:50I'm actually very impressed
35:51by this play.
35:52As the man is raking the pot.
35:53What you don't know about him
35:54is tailor all the clothes.
35:55Although, I believe that Phil
35:56called and he was just...
35:57In the bathroom.
35:58Oh, I'm sorry.
35:59Not a hair toothbrush.
36:00Yeah, he was quickly called.
36:01Okay, my mistake.
36:02Hygiene, physically fit,
36:04tailored clothes.
36:06It's a thing, right?
36:07Like, all encompassing.
36:08You're like,
36:09I'm going to live my best life.
36:10Yes.
36:11And look, and that's what happens.
36:12So I expect to see both players
36:13check over to Yuri
36:14and really know that
36:16really not a ton of incentive
36:17for either player
36:18to continue, actually,
36:19on this board.
36:20Now, Benny has those future blockers
36:21that you've talked about
36:22a number of times before
36:23with the Queens.
36:24He does.
36:25The problem is that
36:26he's in a three-way pot.
36:28He's not closing the action.
36:29He doesn't have much
36:30immediate equity
36:31besides the gut shot.
36:32He doesn't even have
36:33a backdoor flush draw.
36:34He wants just a little bit
36:35more interaction,
36:36in my opinion,
36:37to continue in this hand.
36:38And Yuri is just not going to have
36:39a ton of natural bluffs.
36:40This flop is going to interact
36:41very well with his
36:42cold calling range.
36:43I think Benny just needs
36:44to get out of the way.
36:46Very interesting for me
36:47as someone who doesn't play
36:48a lot of PLO
36:49to see how confident you are
36:50that the aces
36:51should just be
36:52very willing to check hold
36:53this situation.
36:54Yeah, the aces just really need
36:55some more additional equity,
36:57in my opinion,
36:58to continue.
36:59The problem is,
37:00what are you going to do
37:01on almost any turn
37:02facing further aggression?
37:03And it's going to be very hard
37:04to value bet your hand
37:05at any point as well.
37:06Yeah, it certainly makes sense
37:07when you lay it out for us
37:08like that.
37:10Daniel does see
37:11the situation a little differently.
37:12He might be looking at
37:13the strength of his backdoor
37:14nut flush draw
37:15and thinking that perhaps
37:16Yuri will also slow down
37:17with some of the straight draws.
37:18Yeah, maybe he thinks
37:19he's going to get
37:20a pretty honest reaction
37:21from Yuri on turn cards
37:22and he'll be able to
37:23navigate his way
37:24cheaply through
37:25the rest of the hand.
37:26He does pick up
37:27an interesting turn card.
37:28This is a card that
37:29both players are
37:30somewhat happy to see
37:31but also somewhat worried
37:32about seeing the straight
37:33on the board now.
37:34Super interesting spot
37:35for both players.
37:36The problem with
37:37Negreanu's hand here
37:38is he might be tempted
37:39to semi-bluff,
37:40but he doesn't have
37:41any jack or ten in his hand
37:42and Yuri's going to have
37:43a lot of flat calls
37:44that contain that jack ten,
37:45so it's really difficult
37:46to use this combo
37:47when Yuri can just hit this
37:49so hard himself.
37:50If Daniel decides
37:51to check this spot,
37:52can Yuri bet his hand
37:53for value or does he have
37:54to worry about the straight?
37:55In a cash game situation,
37:56I would very likely
37:57want to go for value here
37:58because if you do run
37:59into the straight,
38:00you still have quite good equity
38:01and you can get
38:02some other hands to call.
38:03In this tournament situation,
38:04Yuri would be in
38:05kind of nightmare land
38:06if he were to bet here
38:07and face an all-in.
38:08Yes, he would have
38:09the equity to call
38:10even against the straight,
38:11but he would be in
38:12just this ICM suicide spot.
38:13I expect Yuri
38:14to check this back
38:15with a slightly disguised
38:16strong hand that's going
38:17to also be very strong
38:18in a lot of rivers
38:19and play those rivers.
38:20Really interesting.
38:21What Yuri thinks
38:22that he wants to see
38:23is maybe a heart,
38:24but he really wants
38:25not to see a heart
38:26on the river here.
38:27Correct.
38:28And this is the kind of card
38:29that might just freeze
38:30the action entirely.
38:31Yeah, I wonder if...
38:32Daniel has shown
38:33the propensity sometimes
38:34to make bluffs
38:35that other people
38:36would not go for.
38:37If you get here
38:38with a hand as weak as Daniel's,
38:39it is quite tempting
38:40to turn it into a bluff.
38:42You want Yuri
38:43to have Aces and Queens
38:44and stuff like that
38:45in his hand.
38:46You don't have a single
38:475, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Jack,
38:48so it makes it very difficult
38:49to think that Yuri
38:50doesn't have those cards himself.
38:51Having said that,
38:52Yuri, by checking back the turn,
38:53has reduced the amount of times
38:54he has Jack-10.
38:55Yeah, you're right.
38:56And it would be tempting
38:57maybe for Negrano
38:58to even just put out
38:59a small bet here
39:00representing just
39:01the one-card straight.
39:02Right.
39:03Now, the problem is that
39:04Yuri's going to have
39:05a lot of those
39:06one-card straights himself.
39:07Even if he has something
39:08like a set of kings,
39:09he often has a straight
39:10Yeah, fascinating to see
39:11how this one's going to play out.
39:13And Negrano does just
39:14elect to check.
39:15And this is one of the reasons
39:16I would have liked to see
39:17Negrano just check-fold
39:18the flop because
39:19it's really difficult
39:20to use his hand
39:21to bluff with,
39:22not interacting very well
39:23with that middle of the deck.
39:24Right, you called it
39:25on the flop, yep.
39:26See?
39:27Faffle, he faffled,
39:28but he had a hand.
39:29It's fine, you're allowed
39:30to play that hand.
39:31And Yuri's going to
39:32enjoy this result
39:33after that 6 of clubs
39:34hits the river.
39:35He's going to lose the pot
39:36some decent chunk
39:37of the time there.
39:38I don't think Benny
39:39is going to fold
39:40very many hands in this spot.
39:43However, this is not
39:44a bad spot for
39:45Phil Sternheimer.
39:46At least he is now
39:47in position.
39:48Unfortunately for him,
39:49he picks up one of the
39:50worst hands that you can see.
39:51I think that...
39:52You think he's going to
39:53wait for a better spot?
39:54I mean, this is close,
39:55isn't it?
39:56It really is because
39:57we know the equities run close.
39:58It's very rare that he's
39:59going to get to be
40:00in position throughout
40:01the entire hand
40:02to see the drawing decision.
40:03So even though his hand
40:04is very weak looking
40:05on its face,
40:06he knows Benny has
40:07an incredibly wide range
40:08and he's kind of close
40:09in hot and cold equity
40:10pre-flop,
40:11induce the 7 triple draw.
40:12And you can see that
40:13he may be considering
40:14going with this hand
40:15even with having
40:16to draw 4 cards.
40:17I think it's very close, Chris.
40:18And one point that
40:19you made yesterday
40:20that's a nice point is
40:21let's say they were
40:22playing a 3-handed game.
40:23Now Benny's range is
40:24a little bit wider
40:25than normal,
40:26but with all the card removal
40:27of all the folded hands,
40:28Benny is a little bit
40:29stronger than normal.
40:30I have to say,
40:31I don't know if there's
40:32any merits to this
40:333-bet raise all in.
40:34Why not call?
40:35If Benny stands pat
40:36and you catch bricks,
40:37if he stands pat
40:38and you catch 2 queens
40:39and 2 jacks,
40:40maybe you can just get away.
40:41I think that this
40:42would be one spot
40:43where you would want
40:44to keep a little bit
40:45of chips behind
40:46just for the worst case scenarios.
40:47We don't have Benny's cards,
40:48however, we can be sure
40:49that he's probably
40:50not drawing 4.
40:51And oh my god,
40:52Benny does indeed
40:53have the pat hand.
40:54And I still don't know
40:55if Phil would get away
40:56for only 45,000 more.
40:57I don't know either.
40:58We'll see what he catches
40:59on his first draw,
41:00but that would have been
41:01the spot to maybe save
41:02that last 45,000 chips
41:03and wait and see.
41:04But I tend to agree,
41:05probably just give yourself
41:06a little bit of time
41:07to think about it.
41:08This is exactly the situation
41:09that Phil wanted to avoid,
41:10unfortunately.
41:11I said the hands
41:12run close in equity,
41:13but they don't run
41:14close in equity
41:15when you have a pat 8
41:16versus a draw 4.
41:17Right.
41:18And again,
41:19the likelihood of Benny
41:20having a strong hand
41:21did go up a little bit
41:22with all those folded cards
41:23and a 7-handed table,
41:24but not likely
41:25to run into a hand
41:26this strong.
41:27Phil Sternheimer
41:28needs a miracle here.
41:29Not only that,
41:30but he will realize
41:31that Benny can have
41:32a lot of relatively weak
41:33pats in this spot,
41:34so he could draw
41:35a 9.
41:36I think it's not
41:37inconceivable
41:38that he would keep
41:39the 9 here.
41:40However,
41:41maybe seeing two 9s
41:42would make it even worse
41:43for him.
41:44Yeah.
41:45I always get confused
41:46in all-in situations,
41:47to be honest.
41:48This is not a fun spot.
41:49No.
41:50Remember when we said
41:51maybe he could save
41:52that 45,000 chips?
41:53I'm not sure whether
41:54he could save it now
41:55having improved slightly
41:56to the 4-5 draw
41:57or the 4-5-9 draw,
41:58but it would certainly
41:59be tempting to fold
42:00and hope to pick up
42:01a hand on the next hand.
42:02Right.
42:03I mean,
42:04I suspect he's going
42:05to draw a 3 here,
42:06Chris,
42:07but what do you think?
42:08Do you think he's
42:09considering keeping the 9?
42:10He does say 2,
42:11so this is going to be
42:12the end of the tournament
42:13for Philip Sternheimer.
42:14There's really no way
42:15that he can change
42:16his mind now
42:17having kept those 9s.
42:18Even if he catches
42:19something like DJ,
42:20then I don't think
42:21he's going to...
42:22Yeah, it's not possible.
42:23He's hoping he's up
42:24against something
42:25really rough like a bad 10,
42:26which, to be fair,
42:27would be a reasonable hand
42:28for Benny to play
42:29in the spot
42:30in some situations,
42:31but unfortunately,
42:32our tournament organizer
42:33doesn't have much equity
42:34in this spot
42:35and does not know it.
42:36Of course,
42:37Benny doesn't know that.
42:38Last hand,
42:39I made number 1 Badugi.
42:40Really?
42:41Yeah.
42:42I think Benny's
42:43very confident
42:44in this spot here,
42:45but I agree with you.
42:46He probably doesn't realize
42:47he has 100%.
42:48Definitely could think
42:49that Phil's drawing live.
42:50Yeah.
42:51And Phil,
42:52has he made 9 perfect?
42:53Yeah.
42:54Wow.
42:55This is going to be
42:56very tilting for him.
42:57This is very tilting.
42:58He now is going to feel
42:59like there's a decent chance
43:00that he's got it.
43:01He's absolutely
43:02caught his dream catch.
43:03Now,
43:04when he watches this back
43:05later tomorrow,
43:06whenever,
43:07now he's going to be
43:08so disappointed
43:09that he kept this 9
43:10because he could
43:11actually be drawing live
43:12now with the 2,
43:133,
43:144,
43:155.
43:16Right.
43:17Yeah,
43:18maybe he'll think
43:19about it that way.
43:20That makes sense.
43:21Although,
43:22we've talked about
43:23how everything
43:24would be different.
43:25Butterfly effect.
43:26That's it.
43:27We're all in here
43:28and that's it
43:29and Benny has the pat 8.
43:30I don't win.
43:35I have to say that
43:36like I've,
43:37I don't think
43:38I've ever been so upset
43:39to get eliminated
43:40and my head is like
43:41totally spinning.
43:42Sorry bro.
43:43I get it.
43:44The pain is what we play for.
43:45No,
43:46it's just that
43:47the doobie hand,
43:48I have to say,
43:49I'm totally...
43:50Unfortunate for Nick Shulman
43:51who really is getting low
43:52on chips and gets
43:53another bring in here.
43:57Monchuk finds
43:58another raising hand.
43:59This time,
44:00another strong hand.
44:01ICM.
44:02I know.
44:05You're right.
44:06Notice that Shulman
44:07has a defensible hand here.
44:08Yeah,
44:09he does.
44:10Even with the ICM,
44:11he's already got 20k in there.
44:12It's okay,
44:13you get two.
44:14Monchuk could potentially
44:15be opening light.
44:16He certainly has seen
44:17Monchuk out of line
44:18in a number of spots.
44:19And he does call.
44:20Which I think is
44:21very understandable.
44:24And he can quite easily
44:25pull ahead on this street.
44:27Which he does not.
44:28No,
44:29but this is a dangerous
44:30situation for Nick Shulman
44:31as Michael Monchuk
44:32has also caught poorly
44:33but has a very good hand.
44:34Nick is definitely
44:35going to feel compelled
44:36to take one off here,
44:37I think.
44:38Yeah,
44:39certainly from a chip EV
44:40perspective,
44:41definitely.
44:42And maybe he just thinks
44:43that Monchuk's getting
44:44out of line,
44:45which he was in some
44:46of the previous hands,
44:47but in this case,
44:48he just has the goods.
44:49A monumental 5th street
44:50coming up for Nick.
44:51And both players
44:52catch well.
44:53And now,
44:54Nick is really going to
44:55be tempted to continue
44:56with his 10-6 draw,
44:57which is one of the
44:58draws that Monchuk
44:59can have.
45:00Monchuk can either
45:01have paired or started
45:02with some type of
45:03lemon in the hole.
45:04Absolutely.
45:05Nick is close
45:06to all-in
45:07with one more bet here.
45:08He has a bet
45:09and a quarter
45:10remaining in his stack.
45:11And catches very well,
45:12but so does Texas Mike.
45:13Now Nick can just
45:14never get away here.
45:15He's drawing to a 6
45:16against the made 7
45:17of Monchuk
45:18who can have a lot
45:19of worse hands
45:20in this spot.
45:21Yeah,
45:22I wouldn't fault Nick
45:23for going ahead
45:24and raising his money
45:25in here as he's not
45:26going to be able
45:27to get his 5,000 back.
45:28Yeah,
45:29that's the question.
45:30Is he ever going to
45:31save that last green chip?
45:32I don't see how he can
45:33against the player
45:34he perceives to be
45:35out of line.
45:36He would have such
45:37a short stack remaining
45:38that he would be faced
45:39with a very difficult
45:40decision anyway.
45:41Once he decided
45:42to defend this hand,
45:43the cards sort of
45:44played themselves.
45:45Michael Monchuk
45:46does have the goods.
45:47Yeah,
45:48and he elects
45:49to go with that play,
45:50thinking the same
45:51as you are.
45:52And he is very
45:53disappointed to see
45:54that Texas Mike
45:55has to show first
45:56so he can see
45:57what he needs to catch
45:58to improve.
45:59I mean,
46:00Mike could catch an ace
46:01and make the wheel.
46:02I don't want to squeeze
46:03an ace and lose.
46:04You know what I mean?
46:05Yeah,
46:06of course.
46:07We,
46:08by magic of TV,
46:09can see.
46:10So I need an ace.
46:11Oh,
46:12and if he squeezes this,
46:13he's going to see
46:14he has a no side.
46:15Oh,
46:16wow.
46:17Let's listen in
46:18as Nick Shulman
46:19squeezes for his
46:20tournament life.
46:21And it's a nothing
46:22across.
46:23And it's a club.
46:25Which means I'm
46:26a two to one dog,
46:27I believe.
46:28You remember your,
46:29did you have an ace?
46:30You had a five.
46:31Did you have an ace,
46:32Siri?
46:33You remember?
46:34I'll tell you what,
46:35I had the ace of clubs.
46:36No,
46:37too far.
46:38I had the ace of clubs.
46:39I had the ace of clubs.
46:40You had the ace of clubs?
46:41I did.
46:42For real?
46:43Yeah.
46:44Then he's just dead.
46:45Is that bad?
46:46I lose.
46:47I did.
46:48I had the ace of clubs.
46:49Wow,
46:50you've really outdone
46:51yourself today,
46:52Daniel.
46:54And with that,
46:55Chris,
46:56Two aces in a row.
46:58We've reached the money
46:59in the tournament
47:00as Nick Shulman
47:01unfortunately exits
47:02in sixth place.
47:03Yeah,
47:04a hasty exit,
47:05a very disappointing
47:06way for Nick
47:07to go out here.