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00:00on the River Islands guest line.
00:02We always love it here on Weatherden Dibs when we get an opportunity to bring on Tim
00:06Kawakami, SF Standard, and the TK Pod, which most recently had Mike Dunleavy Jr., so we'll
00:12get to some of that a little bit later on after Niner's free agency stuff.
00:16Tim, what's going on?
00:17Thanks for doing it.
00:18Hey, good to talk to you guys.
00:19Been a little busy this week, huh?
00:20Yeah.
00:21Got some things going on.
00:22Yeah, yeah.
00:23Some stuff cooking.
00:24Well, busier than the Niners, you know what I mean, who are just sitting there watching
00:27everybody leave.
00:28So SF Standard, great article, want to get your perspective and share it with our audience
00:34in terms of what exactly, in terms of a business model, are the Niners doing right now?
00:39I just think for a team that put a lot of money up front, they did pay it for over several
00:45years, and this is just not to the cap.
00:47This is the cash spending that, you know, the big contracts for Debo, for IUK, for the
00:52extension for McCaffrey last year, the extension for Trent Williams last year, the Javon Hargreaves,
00:58Grander contract two years ago, a bunch of these things, I think, you know, with football
01:03push, like the football side, so we got to sign these guys because we're going to win
01:07the Super Bowl while Brock Purdy's contract is low.
01:11Yeah, two things happened.
01:12Well, three things happened.
01:14Those guys, much of them got hurt and weren't very good, certainly last season, leading
01:19to a 6-11 season.
01:21Super Bowl, can't really just say I just pushed all in and get the Super Bowl because those
01:25guys didn't do it, and you have the Brock Purdy contract now on the table, or whatever
01:30you want to say.
01:31Maybe not on the table, but it's coming, and that's going to cost Jed York a lot of guaranteed
01:35money.
01:36Again, I always say it's cash, not caps, because the cap number isn't going to go much higher
01:41in a Brock Purdy deal, let's say it happens in a month or so.
01:44It'll probably be like a $15 million cap, because the bonus is what shrinks it down.
01:49He gets this guaranteed money.
01:51The guaranteed money still has to be paid, and I think there's some, certainly a lot
01:56of looking forward, like ahead, what's that going to be like on Jed York's books, and
02:01there's a sense that these big money deals that they signed for these veterans weren't
02:06worth it anyway, and they're going to shy away from paying big money to 30-year-olds.
02:10No, they're still going to pay some money to 30-year-olds.
02:13I don't want to say, like, people hear that and go, I'll never pay anybody.
02:15I think they will extend George Kittle, because he was great last year, and probably will
02:20be great in the next few years.
02:22Same for Fred Warner.
02:23They might sign Joey Bosa, again, an oft-injured 30-year-old, but that number might be pretty
02:28low.
02:29So, it's kind of measuring things.
02:31There's always a push and a pull.
02:33Do you do it for the football team?
02:34Do you just got to get the guy in, or do you say, wait a minute, what's this really going
02:38to be looking like in a year or two?
02:41And maybe because of how good they were, there was a solid lean towards just get the guy
02:46in, brand value, just get him in, $30 million a year, whatever.
02:51I think Bosa, $34 million a year, I think there is a hard, hard push, and we're really
02:56seeing it now.
02:57I've been writing about it for several weeks now, and even I did not expect it to come
03:00this hard on the last few days.
03:03They're not going to pay a lot of money up front, guaranteed money.
03:06That's how you get free agents.
03:07That's how you sign extensions.
03:08They're just going to back away from that.
03:116 and 11 is what they're going to point to, and they're going to say, are these guys going
03:15to be better than they were last year, when they're one year older?
03:18I think that's kind of the atmosphere of California's HQ on that right now.
03:22Is there a sense, Tim, of a shift in power from where Kyle Shanahan famously reportedly
03:29ran upstairs to stop the Brandon Iuk trade, and that really hasn't worked out?
03:34Has ownership decided to maybe reassert control of personnel and finances, and somewhat defanging
03:41Kyle Shanahan in this process?
03:43Well, he never had control over the finances.
03:46So it's kind of a push and a pull.
03:49Sometimes you go one way, sometimes you go towards the middle, sometimes you go the other
03:53way.
03:54I know from great reporters, a reporter about that story run upstairs, they weren't trading
03:58Brandon Iuk in that moment.
03:59They weren't doing it.
04:00So I just roll my eyes at that.
04:03It is illustrative of that story being told, of the kind of tension maybe between the football
04:08side and the financial side, that they joke about, oh, we came to a deal, but I had to
04:12make sure he wasn't traded first.
04:14He was not getting traded in that moment.
04:16That's not true.
04:17But yes, there was some joking about it.
04:19I think there was some feelings, some awkwardness about that whole thing, as proven by the feelings
04:26that remain.
04:27There's frustration with that deal.
04:29There's frustration with the way you handled it.
04:32And I think the negotiating side, the financial side, is just because of six and 11, because
04:37they didn't like those deals.
04:39They went along with them.
04:40I would say they signed them, so they can't be too bitter about it.
04:42Like they could have said, we are not doing this.
04:44They could have said, I'm not doing this deal.
04:46He's the owner.
04:47They still did it because they thought they were, you know, putting together or keeping
04:51together a Superbowl level team that did not, was not a Superbowl level team.
04:56And they're one year older.
04:57It's not like bringing them all back would have guaranteed a Superbowl this year.
05:00I think that's a larger way to look at this.
05:03Javon Hargrave staying and Jerry Greenblatt staying and Talanoa Hufanga staying and Aaron
05:09Banks staying.
05:10I don't know that that would have said, okay, that's a Superbowl team.
05:12They went six and 11.
05:14Those guys didn't play really well and they've still got a lot of big salary guys on the
05:19roster.
05:20Now they've got fewer of them than you would have imagined.
05:23But I do understand some of the sensibility here and it's not loss of power, lack of power.
05:29It's just on a case by case basis, can Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch going, okay, we need
05:35this guy.
05:36Absolutely must pay him everything because we're going to win a Superbowl.
05:38Okay.
05:39Maybe they can't say that anymore.
05:40And I think that has won out a few times over the last few years.
05:44They almost won a Superbowl.
05:45I mean, like two or three plays and maybe there's an entire different feeling right
05:50now.
05:51The way the NFL is.
05:52So, you know, two or three plays in February decide a lot of things and it kind of rolled
05:59into a bad year last year.
06:00And I think we're seeing management just say, we're not paying for these guys when they
06:06did not perform for us last year.
06:09If we can get out of them, we're going to get out of them and man, are they getting
06:12out of them?
06:13Yeah, they sure are.
06:14Tim Kawakami, SF Standard, the TK pod, which has Mike Dunleavy and for you Niner fans.
06:20Very recently, Tim did a 49ers plus minus pod with Matt Barrow, so you can get the latest
06:25on what's going on there.
06:26Tim joining us here on Weatherden Dibs, 95-7 the game.
06:29So, Tim, what about this?
06:31I know, you know, sometimes it's funny when it's like, are teams rebuilding or are they
06:34planning to win?
06:35Like, I'm sure they're going to try to win every game and maybe they'll be ahead of schedule.
06:39But how do you think, in this moment, they do view it?
06:42Do they still see themselves in a Super Bowl window or is this a little reboot that might
06:47take some time?
06:48Yeah, I think you're paying Nick Bozeman $34 million a year, you're paying George
06:53Kittle $18 million, you know, $16 million, whatever it is, you're paying Fred Warner
06:56$16 million, Richard McCaffrey's making $16 million.
06:59I think they think they can win the Super Bowl.
07:02I think what they're saying is they're not going to pay every single dollar possible
07:05to keep guys who did not perform last season.
07:08And they're going to pay Brock Purdy, you know, upwards of $15 million a year.
07:12I'm convinced of that at some point.
07:14So I think they do look at, you know, teams don't say, OK, let's just do this now because
07:20some team did it well.
07:21But I think there's some admiration, some respect for what the Rams did to kind of like
07:25shed them.
07:26You know, they piled up all these guys.
07:27Remember, they traded all their first round picks, they got all these veterans, they win
07:30a Super Bowl and then they retool from there and now they're stripped themselves of a lot
07:36of big salaries and they're good.
07:37They won a division.
07:38Are they a Super Bowl team?
07:39Well, they almost beat the Eagles in the playoffs.
07:42So with a lesser, you know, name roster, you know, some of these guys on defense, you still
07:48kind of don't really know, but they're good.
07:51I think the 49ers are down that road.
07:53I hesitate to say they're just going to go that way because they saw the Rams do it.
07:56They probably wanted to do that anyway.
07:58Every team kind of thinks like that.
08:01Let's kind of retool on the fly.
08:03Let's still have stars, but maybe we're not paying to keep the guys who are not going
08:08to be stars anymore.
08:10I think that's the different kind of emphasis.
08:14And the Rams are good.
08:15Like the Rams are just add to Vontae Adams.
08:17Like you can do that when you drop your pay down, you drop your cash spending, you haven't
08:22paid all these bonuses and then you go back in a little bit.
08:24I think my sense is the 49ers will go back in at some point and they might do it in the
08:29next few days.
08:31Keep expecting them to at some point, maybe get it signed.
08:34Joey Bosa hasn't happened yet.
08:35I don't think they're offering a ton of money.
08:37I don't think anybody really is.
08:38So he's going to have to make a decision here, but there's no urgent deadline for him.
08:43He's Joey Bosa.
08:45But I don't think it's like we're done.
08:48I don't think that they're paying these guys.
08:50What do you tell Fred Warner?
08:51Like we're done.
08:52What do you tell Kyle Shanahan?
08:54What do you tell all these guys?
08:55Brock Purdy, come sign with us and we're going to be bad for two years.
08:58No, that's not the thinking.
09:00It's just going to be done in a different way.
09:03And I just, the signal is the disappointment, the frustration with the IU deal, with the
09:08Devo deal, with the hard grape deal.
09:10Those are the three.
09:11I put Bosa in there just because it was such an unprecedented deal, but now he's no longer
09:15the highest paid defensive player in football.
09:16He was for two years and they hate that, but they paid the salary that was the top in the
09:21defense for two years.
09:22Max Crosby just topped them.
09:26Miles Garrett just topped that one.
09:28So maybe that's less on the front burner, but the hard grape one, like in terms of free
09:32agency, 30 year old at the time, I think that's not something they want to duplicate.
09:40And how much does that reality or that, you know, come to Jesus moment affect what we're
09:44going to do with Brock Purdy?
09:46Because what you said, Tim, I think is accurate that they're not interested in laying out
09:51a lot of cash upfront for deals yet.
09:54It's better off for them if they do that for Brock Purdy and Josh Allen's number just came
09:58in below 60.
10:00Does all of this kind of complicate what Brock Purdy might ask for and what actually this
10:04might look like as we drag this thing into the spring and maybe the summer?
10:08Yeah, I don't think that, I mean, I think quarterbacks is acknowledged to be a different
10:13position.
10:14You can't, I mean, I don't know, we can all judge what it was like when Bosa didn't practice
10:19all through camp and into the preseason and holding out two years ago.
10:23And I used the same thing and hold in and Trent Williams and like, you can't do that
10:28with a quarterback.
10:29I mean, you know, you, maybe you think you can survive it with players who aren't the
10:33quarterback.
10:34You can't really do, you can't have your quarterback miss a mini camp, can't have them holding
10:37out or holding in for training camp.
10:39So I think there's an acknowledgement that this one is different and they want the quarterback.
10:45I don't think they're going to break the bank for them, but quarterbacks make a lot.
10:49And I think there's an understanding that he will be offered a lot, maybe already has.
10:53It's going to be in terms of what's guaranteed.
10:55And I know this gets so complicated.
10:56I fight this fight all the time.
10:57It's not exactly the average annual value, although that's what we all say, including
11:01me.
11:02But it's what's the guarantee, what, how many years basically is this going to be guaranteed
11:07for?
11:08And I just don't think it's going to be guaranteed for as many years as like Josh Allen or Lamar
11:12Jackson.
11:13We've seen these other huge kind of Justin Herbert.
11:15I don't think it's going to be out there where he's like, no matter what, he's going to get
11:20paid for four or five years.
11:21It might be three years.
11:22Again, there's some technicalities and nobody reports it this way.
11:25So I'm fighting a losing battle, but I think when the dust is cleared and if and when there's
11:30a purdy deal, it'll be at a good number and we're all, Oh my God, he's being paid.
11:34He's popped 12, top 11 average annual value, but maybe the guarantee is going to be lower.
11:40And basically, you know, he's paid for two years guaranteed or maybe two and a half,
11:44three years guaranteed, but that's not terrible for him.
11:47I mean, he'll be 25 now.
11:49If you say we'll cut you loose in three years, great, I'll be 28 and I think I'll get paid
11:53at 28 years old.
11:54I'll get paid again.
11:55So I think that we're looking at the possibility that the foreigners and purdy come to a high
12:02number middle term deal for, for guarantees and you know, maybe we start hearing about
12:08again in two years.
12:09I don't, I just, I do think this is separate from all the other stuff that we're hearing
12:12and it's, well, it's tied to it in one way, they're kind of clearing out money for like,
12:16that's part of this.
12:17It's not all of this, but part of this is they paid all these guys while purdy was making
12:22$800,000 a year.
12:23Uh, that's not going to be the case.
12:25And a lot of the, I think the mindset on Jed York or prog maraca is, okay, when, when we're
12:32paying them $130 million guaranteed, that's going to change the dynamic of what we can
12:37pay everyone else.
12:38And that's how that's combined.
12:40It's not going to, you know, limit what they're paying, but pretty, it's kind of what's limiting
12:44everybody else.
12:45Tim Calcami with us on Willard and dibs.
12:48Okay.
12:49So Tim, down to layman's terms, you're like sitting there getting coffee and a Niner fan
12:53comes up and recognizes you and goes, man, Tim, the Niners are being cheap.
12:58What's your answer to that fan?
13:00That's fair to say for now, but let's see how the next few days go.
13:03Let's see what the roster looks like.
13:05Uh, I can't really argue with them with most of these decisions because first day of free
13:10agencies, when bad deals get made now, they're not all bad, but many of them are bad.
13:15Most of them were bad and bowing out of that and not paying, you know, Javon Hargrave anymore
13:21or getting out from who, you know, Kyle, you check, we all know how valuable he's been,
13:26but he's a fullback.
13:27They paid plenty to 33 years old.
13:30Like I, I can't really argue with a lot of these.
13:33Greenlaw would have been terrific for the locker room.
13:36He played a half and five place last season.
13:39Um, what's the injury risk there?
13:42I would just say, look at it realistically.
13:44Let's see how it ends up again.
13:46The first few days, the free agency or when bad deals get made and maybe the 49ers are
13:50playing it, but they're going to make smart deals over days, two and a half, three, four,
13:54five, six.
13:55Let's see what happens with Brock Purdy.
13:58Let's see how the roster feels, but let's see if they can hit another draft.
14:01I don't like making ultimate decisions based on the hyperventilation of day one.
14:06You know, there's so many teams that have won the off season and day one of free agency
14:11and they actually lose during the right.
14:13Let's see, let's see it play out.
14:14Let's see what the roster is.
14:15There's still a lot of good players.
14:17And I think the real, real sign is what happens with Purdy.
14:21If Purdy is signed by end of April, beginning of May, and then you start hearing other players
14:27say they're cool with what's going on, they understand it, you know, that would be Kittle
14:30and Warner would be the big two.
14:32Trent would be in there three.
14:35And they've got good young players.
14:36If they do, if they've signed some, a bunch of other guys, then I think there might be
14:40a very different mood.
14:41Now that hasn't happened yet.
14:42And I understand that, but I don't think they're just being cheap.
14:46They're being partly cheap.
14:47That's part of it.
14:49But they have paid a ton of money.
14:50Like this is not a perpetually cheap team.
14:53This is a team that's paid out a lot of money.
14:54I don't think they're just going to say, let's be crappy and be cheap and let's all cheer
14:58Jed York's bank account every time the money goes up.
15:01I don't think that's what this is about.
15:03Let's see.
15:04Maybe it's what it's about.
15:05I don't think it is.
15:07And also they're paying their head coach and their general manager a ton of money too.
15:10It would be a waste if you're throwing it all away.
15:12I think there's a plan.
15:14Let's see them execute it and let's see them sign some guys.
15:18But I just don't think you can make a full scale decision on all things, do them in an
15:23NFL franchise based on two days in March.
15:25Should I be concerned that 10% of the team is reportedly up for sale and they might be
15:30interested in the Tampa Bay Rays if they're up for sale?
15:34The divestment of funds?
15:35They're not.
15:36They're not.
15:37By and large, they need to borrow.
15:38He doesn't have any part of the 49ers anymore.
15:40So that's not them.
15:42But the 10% sale of the team, would that be something that as a fan you should be concerned
15:46about that maybe they're more interested in trying to recoup some money as opposed to
15:49spend money?
15:50Yeah, I think that maybe it has to do with the Premier League stuff.
15:54I don't think it has anything to do with the football team.
15:56Again, they've been investing in the Premier League for a long time.
16:00They make tons of profit every year.
16:03This is just what Jed York has decided that he wants the cash flow to be.
16:07They've paid it out.
16:08This is true.
16:09Now they get to a run of three straight years where they're not top 10 in cash flow.
16:14That's a different situation.
16:15They have been way up there.
16:16They've paid all these guys.
16:18I give the owner leeway to do it once and say, okay, let's just back away from some
16:23of this stuff and let's try to remain.
16:25Then it looks like the Rams did the same thing and they got better.
16:28I think the foreigner said, let's do the same thing and let's get better.
16:31Let's get younger.
16:32Let's get better.
16:33Now you still got to pay for some things, but I wouldn't just tie everything together
16:37because they are profitable.
16:38They are not losing money.
16:39They are an incredibly profitable team.
16:41Levi's stadium is a cash machine.
16:44So it's just kind of where they want the money to go when they want to pay it.
16:49I think there is some frustration, you know, how much they, I know this frustration, how
16:53much they've paid out and go six and 11.
16:56If the Jim Harbaugh would have, would not have been fired when he was, if they'd won
16:59a super bowl, they will pay money and they will tolerate a lot of things.
17:03If they're headed towards a super bowl, they thought they were, they didn't, they went
17:07six and 11.
17:08So I think it's a reaction to that.
17:10Maybe it's short sighted.
17:11Maybe it's a little bit emotional, but I get some of this and let's get to the place where
17:17the roster is a lot worse because, you know, listen, Aaron Banks leaving is, doesn't break
17:22everybody's heart.
17:23You know, there's, there's reasons for some of these things.
17:26Let's see if they do birdie, but let's see if some other things get taken care of.
17:30There's a kettle extension and then I think some grand conclusions can be made.
17:35But at this moment, no, I would not tie everything you see on Twitter X, whatever, and say, that's
17:41the reason for all this.
17:42Let's see it all put together.
17:44And listen, there's cause for concern.
17:46They lost a lot of good players and they haven't signed any, but I don't think they've lost
17:50anybody who's irreplaceable.
17:52I don't think they're out of the picture on sign of some guys who could help.
17:56Tim, before you go, Jonathan coming back on Thursday, how big of a challenge is this with
18:02how well the Warriors are playing?
18:04How do you think Steve Kerr goes about injecting him back in?
18:08Well, curse signal this for a while.
18:10We'll win.
18:11We've been asking him for a while because we thought coming up might be back a while
18:13ago.
18:14It's taken a long time.
18:15It will be Thursday now.
18:17But the signal is that they're going to slow play this.
18:19They just don't want pressure on him.
18:21They're playing so well.
18:22Like the worst thing that could happen is you inject them back in, in a major 25 minute
18:27of game role.
18:28He's not ready for it.
18:29Screws up a little bit of the, of the rhythm of the chemistry.
18:33And then all of a sudden everyone's looking at him and going, what the hell?
18:35Like they don't want that.
18:37And they don't want that mostly for Kaminga.
18:39They don't want him feeling like he's kind of off speed with everything else.
18:44I mean, you can see him, you know, five minutes here, five minutes there.
18:47There are minutes available.
18:48They only played nine last game.
18:50You could get some of those, you can't, those, those are the kind of curse that I got to
18:54play.
18:55You can't do that.
18:56I don't think you have to play.
18:57You can't, those may be some minutes there.
18:59There's ways to get them in there.
19:01There's ways to work it in.
19:02And just, I don't think her or the rest of the organization want this like, Oh my God,
19:06they won the game or lost the game because of Jonathan Kaminga's minutes.
19:10They're 12 and two over the last 14.
19:12They're going well.
19:14They lose a couple and then maybe they switch up the rotation that you're coming up more.
19:19I could see that depending on how he goes.
19:21But I think there's going to be a lot of caution about expecting too much and having Kaminga
19:28expect too much.
19:29He's got a lot of things going on.
19:30He's got the contract obviously coming up in the summertime.
19:33He's been watching this happen.
19:34He's out and out for a long time, but he could really fit this.
19:38It would be really interesting to see he and Jimmy Butler together.
19:42The two guys just going to ramrodding their way to the basket, get fouls and get the other
19:46team in foul trouble and creating space.
19:50I don't know that that's going to be the thing that they do right away, but I'm sure curious
19:53to see it because you could see a career path for Kaminga that's very similar to Jimmy Butler.
19:58I don't know that he'll ever be as good as Butler, but he could be in a similar style.
20:02He just simplifies his game.
20:04Doesn't expect too much from every play.
20:06We see it from Butler.
20:07Like sometimes he gets a little frustrated like, Jimmy, would you just shoot the ball?
20:10But he's intent on like, I'm going to dribble it here and then I'm going to pass it over
20:13there and that person is going to pass it to somebody else and it's going to be the
20:17right thing.
20:18Kaminga could learn a lot from that and I think he is learning a lot from that, but
20:22it's subtle.
20:23It's not right away.
20:25Hey, maybe he shows up and scores 30 in the first first game.
20:28I just don't think that's the way they've have it set up.
20:31Get a minor role, work his way into it.
20:34Don't overhype it and just see how it goes.
20:37Tim, great stuff.
20:39Loved, like I told you earlier, loved the article.
20:42Thought it was really, really educational with what the Niners are doing.
20:46Thanks for hopping on today.
20:47You got it, guys.
20:48All right, there he goes.
20:49Tim Calicami and again, the podcast, the 49ers Plus Miners pod with Matt Barrows recently
20:56and the TK Show with Mike Dunleavy Jr.