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00:00Yeah, it's exciting. I actually haven't been to Tampa Bay Downs. I've been to a lot of racetracks
00:05But I haven't been there yet, but I'd love to go but yeah
00:08They have the Sam F Davis this weekend for Derby points so for the entire format of our show today in this first segment
00:14We're gonna go through the Sam F Davis, which is race number 11 on Saturday
00:18We'll do a horse by horse preview of that one then in the second segment
00:21We'll hit on the other three stakes races at Tampa on Saturday
00:25We'll do some quick hit previews of those then we'll finish up with the oak lawn feature race this weekend on Saturday
00:30It's the by a koa for fillies and mares older fillies and mares and we'll get into that in our final segment
00:36But first up, let's see who's gonna be getting some Kentucky Derby points this weekend out at Tampa Bay Downs
00:42Shout out to producers Mike and rich in the back pulling the strings like always
00:46Alexa, let's start with a really talented maiden the number one camp
00:51Has never won, but he's finished second three times in a row
00:54He's been behind some really good horses like guns loaded who came back to win the mucho macho, man
01:00He finished in front of a horse named patch Adams who won next time out with a huge speed figure
01:06Finished in front of a horse named ain't no disco. So while he has not won
01:10He's definitely faced some pretty good company and he's kind of an interesting long shot
01:14If you're looking for like a horse to use in the bottom of your tries and supers
01:18He is an interesting long shot
01:20I'm kind of torn about this horse actually include him underneath of my selections
01:24But I don't love a horse that has a case of second itis
01:28Like that's never something you really want to see
01:30But it does look like he prefers prefers to be like on or near the lead as you can see time from us does predict
01:36That he can get that position
01:38But he did kind of fade a bit at the end and now they're giving him more distance. So
01:43Interesting though because his speed figures are competitive with other favorites in here
01:46I think the to Treaty of Rome is a really nice fit in here for trainer Chad Brown
01:51Alexa, you've seen the progression from him in his each of his starts
01:54He's improved based on speed figures and in the most recent race in the mucho macho, man
02:00He was a really good second and he almost ran down a horse named guns loaded who was basically loose on the lead
02:06So even though the race didn't shape up all that well for him
02:09He still ran really well to finish second that day. What do you think about Treaty of Rome?
02:14Yeah, I did run really well. He lost by a neck at 11 to 1 odds today morning line is 6
02:20Except improving every start trainer win stakes races 25% of the time
02:25So I do think this horse makes sense at 6 to 1 I would want those odds though
02:29I wouldn't want to play him lower than that John Hancock more like Herbie Hancock. Am I right?
02:34John Hancock is very quick cleared the field in that career debut
02:39Half sibling to a horse named speech who is a grade one winner who won the Ashland?
02:43So I mean this is a one of the real interesting horses in here Alexa because he
02:49Has to stretch out from six furlongs to a mile in a 16th
02:52That's not easy, but he has a ton of ability and a ton of early speed
02:56Yeah
02:56and when his trainer Brad Cox does stretch his horses out from a sprint to a route that wins at
03:01Super alarming rate 37% of the time and that was with a big sample size. So that's pretty significant
03:09My only thing is is the odds like playing a horse who's only run one time at three to one
03:14I'm actually a difficult race
03:15So for me, it was hard to play him for that
03:17You have to really like him in here to be able to swallow that really short price, right based on what he's done
03:22He couldn't win this race, but it's gonna be shorter than what his odds should be if he does
03:27Let's move to dr. Ruben M. He exits a really live race Alexa
03:31He'll have to improve to get better and to probably compete with this group
03:34But he was behind Cole battle who came back to win the smarty Jones at Oaklawn
03:40He was behind speed King who came back to win the Southwest. So the race he exits has become very live so far
03:46It has I actually was thinking I'm not a huge fan of him in here
03:49I thought the one camp Hale should be 12 to 1 odds and the fourth one should be 12 to 1
03:55You know, he disappointed when they set him up in class last out
03:58So, I mean he's been improving and learning some but I don't think in a super significant way
04:03That would make him competitive against this field the key for a lot of horses in here
04:07if you're looking at the the graph below us the time form US pace projector, you can notice that
04:13The the speed in here will be interesting because there's going to be a few horses pushing the pace. Dr
04:18Ruben M. Can you tell us a little bit more about that?
04:20What do we do with Gates keeper who comes in off of a to run a runner up and then a third-place effort
04:26So he's still a maiden coming in from Oaklawn Park. What do we do with him in this spot? I
04:31Passed on him. I thought his first race looked promising and then kind of
04:36Returned and disappointed wasn't anything special and from what I see there wasn't a big
04:42Big difference between him and the rest of the race. I mean, he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's
04:48And from what I see there wasn't a big excuse for that effort
04:52So both the number six owen almighty and then the number eight naughty rascal
04:57We're in the very same race the pasco on january 11th in that race
05:01Alexa owen almighty actually crossed the wire first, but in the middle of the running of the race
05:06He cut off one of his rivals. So he got disqualified in place behind that rival. Naughty rascal was put up
05:14Uh to win because of that now owen almighty was making his first start back of the year
05:18So he was probably shaking off some of the rust there. What do you think about him in this spot?
05:22He's he's the one to beat in here really strong horse and i'm excited to to see them have a rematch
05:28Yeah blinkers on second start back off the bench. He just he he's logical he fits
05:32He just makes a whole ton of sense in here poster undefeated three for three
05:37He won his first two starts on the turf
05:38Then he went over and won the grade two remson last time out
05:41I thought it was interesting that his rider flavian pratt who was aboard him in the remson
05:45He actually goes to ride john hancock, which you don't see
05:49You know when you've been aboard a horse and won a graded stakes on them. Usually you stay with that horse
05:54What do you think about poster in here coming off that graded stakes win? I like poster a lot
05:59You know only graded stakes winner in here
06:01doorknock actually won the remson in 2023 and then continued on to be a contender in the kentucky derby
06:07And then win the belmont which is the third leg of the triple crown
06:10um
06:11For poster though the remson was first time out on the dirt
06:14So this being the second time out on the surface, I wouldn't be surprised to see improvement
06:18I think four to one odds are really nice on him and I hope they stay that way. I think it's a play
06:23Talked a little bit about naughty rascal a moment ago because he was the horse that actually defeated owen almighty
06:28But he didn't cross the wire first. He was put up and he didn't really have anything to do with the dq
06:33He was just the one that benefited from it because owen actually
06:38Impeded a different horse there. So
06:40Naughty rascal is one of those fun horses to root for alexa because I don't know if he's going to be a kentucky derby winner
06:46Down the line, but he's honest he can run on different surfaces. He's pretty quick
06:51He's a hard knocking horse that you like to root for is he in a little too deep here though?
06:57maybe I mean he's consistently improving speed figures my main concern with him is the distance because
07:03Um, he is stretching out the longest distance he's ever tried and I think he seemed to just do a little bit better on those
07:08Shorter distances, but definitely a very talented horse completely agree with you
07:12I think he'll end up being more of like a seven for a long miler type horse overall have a little more punch there
07:17but you can understand why the connections keep
07:20Trying because they want to see if they can get some kentucky derby points here
07:24Smoke them boy the nine blinkers come on total wild card coming in from camarero
07:29Won his last two races by open lengths now comes into the jose d'angelo barn. What do you do with him?
07:35um
07:36Like you said, he's a wild card out of fire crew so far in puerto rico
07:39They've shipped him up to the us try some real competition, but this is a huge ask a huge stepped up step up
07:45But interesting note his sire catholic boy actually won the runs and then got second place in this stakes race back in 2018
07:52So, you know, he's gonna try to follow in dad's footsteps