PLT Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti menyatakan deflasi kembali terjadi di awal 2025, yaitu 0,76% secara bulanan (MOM). Sedangkan secara tahunan, masih tercatat inflasi sebesar 0,76%. Dengan demikian, deflasi Januari 2025 telah mematahkan tren kenaikan inflasi yang terjadi selama tiga bulan sebelumnya, yaitu Oktober, November dan Desember 2024.
Komoditas tarif listrik menjadi penyumbang utama deflasi pada Januari 2025, dengan tingkat deflasi sebesar 32,03% dan andil deflasi 1,47%. Deflasi terjadi karena adanya diskon 50% bagi pelanggan dengan daya listrik sampai 2.200 volt ampere (VA) di Januari 2025.
Sementara itu, sesuai dengan Keputusan Menteri ESDM Nomor 348 tahun 2024, pemberian diskon 50% tarif listrik diberikan kepada pelanggan rumah tangga PT PLN (Persero) dengan daya 450 VA, 900 VA, 1.300 VA dan 2.200 VA yang berlaku selama dua bulan yaitu Januari dan Februari 2025.
Komoditas tarif listrik menjadi penyumbang utama deflasi pada Januari 2025, dengan tingkat deflasi sebesar 32,03% dan andil deflasi 1,47%. Deflasi terjadi karena adanya diskon 50% bagi pelanggan dengan daya listrik sampai 2.200 volt ampere (VA) di Januari 2025.
Sementara itu, sesuai dengan Keputusan Menteri ESDM Nomor 348 tahun 2024, pemberian diskon 50% tarif listrik diberikan kepada pelanggan rumah tangga PT PLN (Persero) dengan daya 450 VA, 900 VA, 1.300 VA dan 2.200 VA yang berlaku selama dua bulan yaitu Januari dan Februari 2025.
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06:30What do you think about the deflation?
06:34Is it a stimulus?
06:36Is it a discount?
06:38Is it still in the parameters that have been adjusted according to the business plan of entrepreneurs?
06:46Yes, this is indeed a surprising thing for entrepreneurs
06:53that there was a deflation at the beginning of the year.
06:56And we are also making adjustments.
06:59Mr. Wiyanto has already said that there are unusual things.
07:06We understand that the purchasing power is decreasing due to the deflation.
07:12Therefore, entrepreneurs are making adjustments to be able to carry out economic activities in the future.
07:22Okay, what kind of adjustments are usually made?
07:26Do you think this will be able to boost the purchasing power of the people,
07:31even though it is only a policy from January and February?
07:36Yes, Mr. Wiyanto has already said that we are now reducing the cost.
07:43Indeed, the demand is decreasing due to the deflation.
07:48But we are sure that Indonesia's economy will grow in the future.
07:53So we are still optimistic that it will get better in the future.
07:59Finally, we ask the government to push the middle class
08:06so that the consumption level and the people's spending can return to normal.
08:14Mr. Wiyanto, the trend of inflation has been formed since October to December 2024.
08:21The deflation that occurred in January and then you projected it in February,
08:26is it only temporary or how?
08:29It is very temporary.
08:33It is purely due to the loss of incentives.
08:37So when Mr. Menko, Mr. Erlangga said that it will not be prolonged,
08:43it means that the deflation will most likely end in March.
08:49But what I want to emphasize is that the ideal is for the country to experience low inflation.
08:55But when low inflation is processed through inflation, deflation, deflation, inflation, deflation, deflation,
09:02this indicates that the country's economic situation is not smooth.
09:08This situation is often triggered by government policies that are not coherent, not comprehensive.
09:16And it is often taken in a negative way.
09:21This January deflation is actually unnecessary.
09:24This means that the government is actually spending very limited ammunition.
09:31Unfortunately, the ideal is low inflation,
09:34but the government is spending Rp12 trillion for electricity discounts when our fiscal is in trouble.
09:42If we can go back in time,
09:47ideally when PPN 12% is canceled, this incentive is also canceled.
09:54Instead of electricity incentives, it is better to increase LNG subsidies.
10:02LPG 3 kg has started to be scarce in the field.
10:06One of the volume of LPG subsidies will be reduced next year.
10:11So that's my example.
10:13Yes, but by accepting this policy condition, it has been gloated.
10:16Then it is proven that many people actually enjoy the existence of electricity discount policies,
10:22even though it eventually triggers deflation in January to February.
10:26So what steps do we need to take to prepare the government?
10:29If you say, should the policy be more directed, more comprehensive?
10:33We will discuss in the next segment.
10:35We will take a break for a while.
10:36And viewers, make sure you are still with us.
10:53Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
10:55In the next segment, we will present data for you related to the deflation contribution community.
11:00In January 2025, as you can see on your television screen,
11:04we will look at the electricity tariff with 1.47%.
11:07Then there is the tomato, cucumber, train fare, then there is also the air traffic fare.
11:13That's it for the deflation contribution community.
11:15Then, how do we make the deflation community more effective?
11:20Then, how about the inflation contribution community in January?
11:24Yearly, if we look at it,
11:27there is gold jewelry, fried oil, cigarette machine, bird's eye chili, and coffee powder.
11:33That's it.
11:34Next, we will look at the development of Indonesia's PMI manufacturing.
11:38After the last few months, we have indeed increased the level of expansion,
11:42or contracting.
11:44And in December 2024 to January 2025,
11:49the level has increased again.
11:51Indonesia's manufacturing PMI to 51.9.
11:55Next, the target of investment from 2025 to 2029.
11:59We will see if it can be a fundamental supporter of Indonesia's economic growth.
12:05That's it.
12:06The target for 2025 is Rp 1,905 trillion.
12:09It will continue to rise to Rp 3,414 trillion by 2029.
12:14The target of investment will be pursued by the Prabowo-Gibran government.
12:18Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Wijayanto Samirin,
12:21Economic Senior from the University of Paramadina.
12:24Then there is Mr. Akbar Himawan Bukhari,
12:27President of BPP HIPMI.
12:29Mr. Wijayanto, if we look at some of the data that have been provided,
12:32what do we need to pay attention to,
12:35with the policies that have been implemented by the government?
12:38In your opinion, should we be more precise,
12:42more precise in our targets,
12:44or involve a sectoral discussion with a number of other ministries?
12:50Please.
12:51Yes, I think what was said by Mr. Erlangga just now is correct.
12:54So the incentive will be stopped after February,
12:58because it has been proven to cause deflation.
13:01It means that inflation is overshooting.
13:04Then in the future, what needs to be the focus of the government,
13:08besides the global factor, which we will discuss separately,
13:11but also the factor when the government tries to cut
13:15a budget of Rp 306 trillion.
13:20This will definitely have an impact on many sectors.
13:24For example, the services, meetings, etc.
13:28That is the core of the growth of the hotel, transportation, and tourism sectors in the regions.
13:35The government must anticipate this.
13:37Don't let road cuts,
13:39but also the development of economic growth.
13:44If earlier, the graphics,
13:46Mr. Pras showed that there was a deflation,
13:50there was a deflation in the train,
13:52when flying, this will continue in the future,
13:55including the deflation of the transportation sector in general.
13:58Because many of the transportation providers
14:03get a market from government activities,
14:06both in the city and in the region.
14:08I just got off the airport,
14:10then went home by taxi.
14:12The taxi driver also said
14:14that he has started to feel hit.
14:17APBN efficiency,
14:19in the field of meetings and travel services,
14:22the number they carry down,
14:24and he said that so far,
14:26they have carried a lot of services,
14:29ASN that do trips abroad.
14:32The efficiency is extraordinarily good,
14:34but the negative impact of the efficiency
14:37must be reconsidered by the government.
14:40And as soon as possible,
14:42don't delay later.
14:44When there is a decline in the sector,
14:46for the PHK to appear,
14:47that's too late.
14:48So earlier is better.
14:49That's it, Mr. Pras.
14:50Okay, okay.
14:51This is interesting.
14:52Mr. Pras, how is it from the business world,
14:54that it turns out that various policies
14:56that have been mentioned earlier,
14:58like what Mr. Wijayanto has said,
15:02mentioned earlier,
15:03overshooting, right?
15:04This is from me,
15:06how do you see it?
15:07Is it really the overshooting policy,
15:10or does it give one of its own benefits,
15:13if indeed from the business world,
15:15there may be an increase in the purchasing power of the community
15:18appears there like that?
15:20Yes, we see that,
15:22what Mr. Wijayanto said earlier,
15:24that the government,
15:25we hope to do a comprehensive policy and study.
15:31So whatever the product or program
15:34that the government does,
15:36can be targeted,
15:38both in terms of incentives,
15:40as well as from, what is it called,
15:43those who support the demand supply can still be maintained.
15:48So that the community's spending,
15:50earlier we knew that the government spending
15:54is being pressured,
15:56so that there is, what is it called,
15:59savings,
16:00but on the other hand,
16:02there is a non-rotating economic impact.
16:05Earlier I had a chance to explain
16:07how the government can push
16:09if the government does efficiency
16:12towards the PBN,
16:14it becomes a government obligation
16:16for the government to make regulations
16:18to be able to push the middle class,
16:20so that the household spending
16:22and also the middle class spending
16:24can grow.
16:25So there is a replacement.
16:28If the government is doing efficiency,
16:32the private sector,
16:34the household sector is also stimulated
16:36by the purchasing power,
16:38so that both can get,
16:42the business actors get stimulus,
16:45and also, what is it called,
16:48the community's faith can also maintain the purchasing power.
16:53So that the comprehensive research
16:55is what we expect to be done by the government.
16:58Okay.
16:59Mr. Akbar, it's interesting,
17:00if we look at the existing conditions,
17:02various policies that have been put forward by the government
17:04are indeed expected to be able to increase
17:07the ability of the community's purchasing power.
17:09But on the other hand,
17:10there is a budget saving policy,
17:12or efficiency,
17:13which has been stated,
17:14Rp 306 trillion.
17:16Will this have a direct impact
17:20on the business world?
17:21Mr. Akbar.
17:23Certainly, there is an impact
17:26directly on the business world.
17:29Okay.
17:30The purchasing power of the community in this matter,
17:32government spending,
17:34is declining.
17:36And indirectly,
17:38what is it called,
17:39this also has an impact on the community's spending
17:42in this matter,
17:43the supply chain that occurs.
17:46For that,
17:47all government policies,
17:49in stimulus and also incentives
17:52that are given,
17:53if possible, this is the right place.
17:54Okay.
17:55So that it doesn't happen again,
17:56like what we felt in January yesterday,
17:59there was a deflation,
18:00so that the purchasing power declined.
18:02Well, it's too late
18:04if we say this deflation
18:06will continue,
18:09because this is in the beginning of the year
18:12and in the month of January,
18:14everyone is making adjustments.
18:16But it is not impossible that this can happen
18:18if it is not anticipated by the government
18:21with, what is it called,
18:23comprehensive research and policy.
18:27Okay.
18:28Under the condition of our PME Manufacturer,
18:30Mr. Wijayanto Samirin,
18:31how do you see the position of the business world in Indonesia?
18:34Was it a challenge given by Mr. Akbar?
18:37Do you think 2025 will be more tricky?
18:41Yes.
18:42If we look at the PMI,
18:44there is indeed a cyclicality element, sir.
18:47Okay.
18:48So it usually goes up
18:50in September, October, November, December,
18:53because of Nataru,
18:55then it keeps going up,
18:56towards Eid,
18:57then it goes down.
18:59So what is happening now
19:02is something that is cyclical.
19:05Okay.
19:06But we have to be grateful.
19:07Why?
19:08It means that our economic behavior is normal.
19:12So the cyclicality that has been happening
19:15when the economy is normal,
19:16it also happens now.
19:18But it is too early for us to conclude
19:21that this PMI then shows that
19:24our manufacturing industry sector
19:27has returned,
19:29has boomed, and so on.
19:31This is a cyclical impact,
19:33but we have to be grateful
19:34because our economy behaves normally.
19:38Okay.
19:39What sectors can still be relied on
19:41for the growth of our economy?
19:43On the one hand,
19:44maintaining a stable price,
19:46then those affected by the price movement
19:48can also be pressured.
19:50We will discuss this in the next segment.
19:52We will be back in a moment.
19:53And, viewers,
19:54we will be back soon after the next conversation.
20:27Okay.
20:28Okay.
20:56Okay.
20:59Okay.
21:00Okay.
21:28Okay.
21:31Hmm.
21:50Okay.
22:00Hmm.
22:13Yeah.
22:23Yeah.
22:31Hmm.
22:38Okay.
22:45Okay.
23:00Okay.
23:31Yeah.
23:44Okay.
23:52Yes.
24:01Okay.
24:22Yeah.
24:26Yeah.
24:30Hmm.
24:35Okay.
24:41Right.
25:00Hmm.
25:26Okay.
25:30Yeah.
25:37Yeah.
26:00Okay.
26:30Hmm.
27:01Okay.
27:05Okay.
27:18Okay.
27:30Okay.