Kondisi perekonomian nasional saat ini tengah menghadapi tekanan dari sisi konsumsi masyarakat. Hal ini tercermin dari data yang dirilis Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dimana deflasi telah terjadi selama 5 bulan beruturut-turut. Bahkan, deflasi beruntun yang terjadi sejak bulan Mei hingga September 2024 tersebut, dinilai mendekati rekor terpanjang pada tahun 1999, dimana saat itu terjadi deflasi selama 7 bulan beruntun akibat badai krisis moneter.
Selain itu, BPS juga merilis data jumlah kelompok menengah di Indonesia yang cenderung turun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Pada tahun 2021, jumlah kelas menengah mencapai 53,83 juta orang, namun angka ini turun menjadi 49,51 juta pada tahun 2022. Kemudian turun lagi menjadi 48,27 juta pada tahun 2023, dan menjadi 47,85 juta pada tahun 2024.
Selain itu, BPS juga merilis data jumlah kelompok menengah di Indonesia yang cenderung turun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Pada tahun 2021, jumlah kelas menengah mencapai 53,83 juta orang, namun angka ini turun menjadi 49,51 juta pada tahun 2022. Kemudian turun lagi menjadi 48,27 juta pada tahun 2023, dan menjadi 47,85 juta pada tahun 2024.
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TVTranscript
00:00The program you are about to watch is purely fictional. Any resemblance to anyone, living or dead, is coincidental and unintentional.
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Live from the AIDX studio in Jakarta, I'm Prasetyo Ibo,
00:25back again in Market Review,
00:27which will tackle the issues of Indonesia's economic movement.
00:29This time, we will talk about the retail sector,
00:31how much the impact is under pressure due to the decrease in the purchasing power in the community.
00:36Which areas have been marked?
00:39Let's start the complete Market Review.
00:50The National Economic Survey is currently facing pressure from the decrease in the purchasing power of the community.
00:56This is reflected in the deflation that occurred in the last five months, from May to September 2024.
01:07The National Economic Survey is currently facing pressure from the consumer side of the community.
01:13This is reflected in the data released by the Statistical Center,
01:16where the deflation has occurred for five consecutive months.
01:20Even the deflation that occurred from May to September 2024
01:25is estimated to be the longest record in 1999,
01:29where there was a deflation for seven months due to the monetary crisis.
01:35In addition, the National Economic Survey also released data on the number of middle class in Indonesia,
01:39which tends to decline in recent years.
01:42In 2021, the number of middle class reached 53.83 million people.
01:47However, this number fell to 49.51 million in 2022,
01:52then fell again to 48.27 million in 2023,
01:57and to 47.85 million in 2024.
02:03The decline in the purchasing power of the community and the number of middle class people
02:07is also concerned that it will have a double impact on the development and economy of the retail industry in the country.
02:13Meanwhile, the middle class has long been a pillar in the movement of the national economy through consumption activities.
02:19On the other hand, the middle class is currently lagging behind the class.
02:23This is reflected in the run-time output that tends to approach the lower classes, namely the middle class.
02:29It could even go further down, namely the poor middle class.
02:33From Jakarta, I'm Aidek Channel.
02:37Yes, to discuss our topic this time,
02:39a sustainable strategy for the retail industry to face the decline in purchasing power.
02:42We are with Roy Nicholas Mande,
02:45Chairman of the Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs Association.
02:48Good morning, Mr. Roy.
02:50Good morning, Mr. Espresso.
02:51Yes, good morning, sir.
02:52Good morning.
02:53Okay, thank you for your time.
02:55And this is Mr. Rizal Taufiq Rohman,
02:57Head of the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center.
03:00Good morning, Mr. Rizal.
03:02Good morning.
03:04Good morning, Mr. Espresso. How are you?
03:06Alhamdulillah, I'm fine. Thank you for your time.
03:09Let's start with Mr. Roy's review.
03:11Please give us an update, sir.
03:12How is the current condition of the retail industry right now,
03:15in the middle of the decline in the purchasing power of the people?
03:21Yes, thank you, Mr. Espresso.
03:23So, what we can inform you,
03:25according to the reports from the members of the modern retail business,
03:30we are talking about the modern retail business
03:33in various locations, provinces, cities, and regencies,
03:38in the outside of Java.
03:40This is interesting.
03:41We have a note like this.
03:43In the outside of Java,
03:45we know that 65% of our population and the center of the industry sector
03:49are all in the island of Java.
03:50But outside of the island of Java,
03:52the condition is still growing,
03:54even though in the middle of the declining purchasing power.
03:57The growth is insignificant,
03:59only about 2% to 3%,
04:02but there is still growth compared to last year.
04:05But if we talk about the island of Java,
04:07especially if we talk more segmented,
04:09in Jabodetabek,
04:10because there are various situations that happened in Jabodetabek,
04:15some of our stores,
04:17even there is already a minus,
04:19approaching the double digit,
04:21so the minus has reached 8% to 9%.
04:24Minus.
04:25From last year.
04:27Why is there such a difference?
04:30Because we know that the focus of the industry sector
04:34is in the island of Java.
04:36And when we talk about Jabodetabek,
04:38this is the most affected,
04:41we know when we talk about Jabodetabek,
04:43the center of manufacturing, for example,
04:45I take the example of textiles,
04:47then also shoes,
04:50which has done,
04:52there are some that have PHK,
04:55there are some that are starting to decrease,
04:59and so on.
05:00It is very felt.
05:02So Jabodetabek is around 6% to 7%,
05:07minus from last year.
05:09This is a phenomenon that happens,
05:12which is very easy for us to see,
05:14or very easy for us to observe,
05:16from the deflation condition.
05:19Deflation is a condition of domestic weakness.
05:24Demand weakness.
05:26From our domestic.
05:29The condition is very felt right now,
05:31and of course it needs radical steps,
05:34it needs significant steps,
05:37especially if we want to move to a new government.
05:39Where do you want to go with our household consumption,
05:42which is still the largest contributor to our GDP?
05:47That's right.
05:48If we look from the domestic side,
05:50how do you see the condition of the industry,
05:52in general, and then the retail industry,
05:54especially in the middle,
05:56for the past five months,
05:58the purchasing power of the public,
05:59which we know there is a slight weakness,
06:01due to the deflation that happened in the last five months.
06:05Yes, if we look from the side of GDP,
06:09as well as PMI,
06:11in 2024,
06:13there was a decline.
06:17Even if we look at Trihulan,
06:21from Trihulan I to Trihulan II,
06:25our economic growth did decline.
06:28Even in the prediction,
06:30the growth of Trihulan III will not be much different
06:35from the economic growth of Trihulan.
06:38Even the growth will decrease.
06:40If we still remember,
06:42Trihulan I was at 5.11,
06:44then 5.6,
06:46possibly around 5.3 or 5.2.
06:51And then we look again from the PMI side,
06:57that the PMI manufacturing in Indonesia
06:59has fallen to the level of contraction
07:01for three consecutive months.
07:03It even continued to decline,
07:06because of 52.1 points,
07:09even in September,
07:11which I think is very critical, 49.2.
07:15And what does this show?
07:17Of course, our industry is supported more
07:22by the food and beverage industry,
07:24where retail is one of the drivers
07:29of industrial goods in the manufacturing sector.
07:35Now, I wonder,
07:40why is the government so slow to respond to this condition?
07:43Because this is very dangerous.
07:45Especially if we talk about the purchasing power of the people,
07:49it shows,
07:51especially if there is a contraction
07:53for more than three consecutive months,
07:56the government should immediately find a short-term solution.
08:02Through some policies.
08:07But it seems that the policies
08:10implemented by the government
08:12have not yet yielded results.
08:14Imagine, it's been five months,
08:18it keeps going down.
08:20Even our consumer price index has also declined.
08:24Deflation for up to five months.
08:28And I think the government must immediately
08:33wait for a new president.
08:36But it must be anticipated.
08:38Moreover, the new president must be built
08:44in a healthy way, economically.
08:49This is a serious problem
08:53that the government must immediately take steps,
08:57not only in the short term,
08:59but also in the medium term.
09:02That's it.
09:03It's related to your response.
09:05It's not always aggressive to overcome the current conditions.
09:09Mr. Roy, since when has the weakness of purchasing power
09:12in the community been felt by retail?
09:15Remember, outside Java, there is a 2% growth.
09:18But the market domain of the industry itself is in Java.
09:22But what if it's weakened again?
09:25Yes, that's right.
09:26So the weakness is related to the deflation.
09:31So we know that every year,
09:35the peak of productivity,
09:38whether it's the food and beverage industry,
09:40or us, the retail sector,
09:42is in the month of Ramadan.
09:44In the month of Ramadan,
09:46we include fasting and Eid.
09:49Because it has a curve,
09:53when the people have income,
09:57or additional income,
09:58there is a salary of Rp13,000, there is a pension,
10:00or whatever it is,
10:02the behavior of the people is always
10:05that the Rp13,000 salary will definitely run out for shopping.
10:08There is no saving, there is no saving.
10:10That's our culture.
10:12So the consumption must be very high
10:15during Ramadan.
10:17Our income contributes almost 55%
10:20of our annual travel.
10:22Our income is more or less 50% during Ramadan.
10:26This condition, after that,
10:29there is usually a weakness.
10:32The weakness is after they have spent all their funds,
10:35their money, etc.
10:36It will run out after Eid or after Ramadan.
10:40When at that time, it is also added to the fluctuation of prices,
10:44then the price of the community,
10:46we talk about the price of the main community.
10:49Then there is also a situation of weakness
10:53from the manufacturing industry.
10:55For example, it has been explained earlier,
10:57Mr. Taufiq, we have PMI,
10:59below 50,
11:01it all indicates that we are weak.
11:0448, 49 is a weak number.
11:07Usually, in previous years, we were 52, 53,
11:10but now we are weak.
11:11What does it mean? The productivity is also low.
11:13Why is the productivity low?
11:15Because the export is also low.
11:17There are some textiles that state that
11:19the export is really now with geopolitics and so on,
11:22the export has been cut off.
11:24So even if the domestic market is going to be shaken,
11:26automatically, we know there is a capacity from the domestic market
11:30compared to the export.
11:32So it changes the situation and finally
11:35there is a reduction in labor,
11:37and we all know that there has been a decrease in the mid-level,
11:41around 9.4 million.
11:43Now, this mid-level,
11:44if it didn't go down,
11:46they would normally shop.
11:48Even though there is a decrease after Ramadan,
11:51they shop as usual,
11:53because they have a certain income every month,
11:57and when they go down,
11:59now they experience an uncertain income
12:01because they switch to the informal sector.
12:03They buy a car,
12:05so now the motor is 49%.
12:08Because there is comfort for informal work.
12:11The car goes down 29%,
12:13but the motor goes up 49%.
12:15Why?
12:16Many have moved from the formal sector,
12:18a certain job for them to also shop,
12:21consume with passion.
12:22Now they shop as much as possible.
12:25Basket size compared to retail is also going down now.
12:28Why? Because they shop as much as possible.
12:31Because they have switched to informal work.
12:33Like that.
12:34Let's see.
12:35Our brothers and sisters who shop,
12:38there are so many now, it's amazing.
12:40This indicates a weakness.
12:42This weakness is derived
12:44from the economic index,
12:46as well as what I mentioned earlier,
12:48in our industry, in the retail sector,
12:50especially Jabodetabek,
12:52it can go down to 6-8%.
12:55Okay.
12:56In a condition like this,
12:57it seems like there are a lot of fundamental things
13:00that need to be fixed.
13:01We will discuss this in the next segment.
13:03Mr. Roy, we will take a break for a while.
13:05And Mr. Mirza, make sure you are still with us.
13:15Yes, our conversation is getting warmer
13:17related to the condition of my community,
13:19where the decline in the purchasing power of this community
13:21has started to pressure many sectors,
13:23including one of them is the retail sector.
13:26Mr. Rizal, how do you see the current condition?
13:29You have already described,
13:30Mr. Roy also described the condition,
13:32there is a decline in purchasing power,
13:33the middle class that BPS mentioned earlier
13:35has also started to decline,
13:37our BMI manufacturers also tend to decline.
13:39Actually, the bottleneck,
13:41the main source of this problem,
13:43where is the point?
13:45Mr. Rizal.
13:46Yes.
13:47Indeed, from the supply side,
13:49it is also affected.
13:51Then,
13:53because the supply is the demand of the labor market,
13:57it also has an impact.
13:59Because of the productivity,
14:01PMI is the supply.
14:03So,
14:05the labor market also declined,
14:07as seen from the PMI earlier.
14:10As a result,
14:12consumption has increased.
14:15Just like what was said earlier,
14:17it is true,
14:18the revenue or revenue
14:20does not rise,
14:22it is also added
14:24to the growing informal sector,
14:26and the informal sector
14:28has far less revenue than the formal sector,
14:31then,
14:33the purchasing power of the community will automatically decrease.
14:36Imagine,
14:38what they get in revenue or salary
14:41is included in the middle income,
14:43middle income,
14:45middle class household.
14:47And,
14:49the decline of the middle class
14:51almost 9.5 million,
14:53what does it show?
14:55It shows the contribution
14:57of the middle class
15:01to the consumption of household
15:03at the national level.
15:06And that is the formation of our national GDP.
15:10So,
15:12I also see that
15:14the government must act on this condition.
15:17The initial impulse must be
15:19directly anticipated
15:21by a policy that is very
15:24very fast.
15:27To increase what?
15:29Well, income,
15:31imagine in the middle class,
15:33even to the middle class,
15:34the middle class actually
15:35consumption should also increase.
15:37This also turns out to reduce consumption.
15:40Now, of course,
15:42this is a trend that
15:44the government is very slow to see.
15:46Of course,
15:47with this condition,
15:49what is the implication?
15:51Consumption decreases,
15:54productivity for production
15:56or industry also decreases,
15:58those who do not want it will drop.
16:01Consumption,
16:02which in the long run will also decrease
16:04to the initial value of our national GDP.
16:06That's what we don't want.
16:08Imagine,
16:10what is it called,
16:12Triwulan 4,
16:14it should,
16:15or Triwulan 3 should be
16:17the hope to push
16:19our GDP in Triwulan 4.
16:22Especially the new president.
16:24Don't let the new president
16:26be trained to face the society
16:28that is already chronic.
16:30This must be anticipated.
16:32Especially having new hopes and so on.
16:36Indeed,
16:37the middle class is a hope
16:39and the government is very
16:41not sensitive
16:44to changes in consumption
16:46at the middle class level.
16:48Because so far,
16:50there is no specific policy
16:53that buffers consumption in the middle class.
16:57If at the lower level,
16:59yes,
17:00there are a lot of incentives,
17:02policies,
17:03especially if you look at the top,
17:05there are a lot of incentives
17:07provided by technology,
17:08technology and so on.
17:10Why isn't there a middle class?
17:13In fact,
17:14our biggest supporter of consumption
17:16so far is in the middle.
17:18Yes.
17:19In this middle class.
17:20And this is,
17:22I think,
17:23a new hope for the government
17:26in the future.
17:27Correct.
17:28To interpret
17:29what is called
17:31policy.
17:32Especially in this middle class policy.
17:34Yes.
17:35Imagine
17:36this middle class
17:37is already
17:39what is called
17:40quite
17:41strong.
17:42But
17:43of course,
17:44this must be supported
17:46by policies.
17:47Don't let it go down again.
17:49Okay, Mr. Rizal.
17:50Mr. Roy, how do you see it?
17:52Is there a shift in consumption patterns
17:54in the community with the current conditions?
17:56Then, what strategies will be applied
17:58by the retailers themselves
18:00to address
18:01the weakening of the purchasing power of the community?
18:06Yes, Mr. Roy.
18:08Mr. Dimir.
18:09Yes.
18:10Please, sir.
18:11Yes.
18:12Facing this weakening situation
18:14and also what we do
18:16as well as what becomes the hope
18:18for the government
18:20to snap,
18:21blink,
18:22before
18:23the transition of a new government
18:25so that it can, of course,
18:27get even.
18:28The first thing is, of course,
18:30if we simply,
18:31Mr. Pras,
18:32we have faced this situation
18:34not just now,
18:36COVID-19,
18:37weakening of purchasing power,
18:38and so on.
18:39We usually do efficiency.
18:41That's the first thing.
18:42Then, the second thing,
18:44we also coordinate
18:46with the manufacturing sector
18:48to diversify products.
18:50Reducing
18:51rather than content
18:52or rebranding
18:53or relaunching again,
18:55products or brands
18:56that are far more affordable.
18:58Then, increasing customer service
19:00is something we usually do.
19:02But what makes us unique
19:04is how to
19:06do this.
19:07We see that
19:08the most important thing is
19:10how to make the monetary policy
19:12more expansive.
19:14How the central bank
19:16can reduce the flow rate.
19:18Indeed, the FED has decreased.
19:20Our pay rate has also decreased.
19:22But how to push
19:24the flow rate
19:26in the sector related to
19:28people or manufacturers
19:30or business owners, for example,
19:31loans
19:32and our investment.
19:34Then, this is also related to
19:36credit, so that we can increase
19:38the credit to the real sector.
19:39And that can push the consumption
19:41and investment.
19:43This is the main thing.
19:44Then, fiscal stimulus.
19:46This is what the government sees
19:48for the affected groups.
19:49It can be listed here,
19:51this 9.4 million.
19:53They have lost their purchasing power,
19:55but their taxes are still the same.
19:57The taxes that
19:59they have to pay,
20:01there is a way
20:03so that they don't have to pay PPN.
20:05For example,
20:07this must be thought of by the government, of course.
20:09Related to the fiscal regulation
20:11or fiscal stimulus.
20:13Then, how about the increase of
20:15jobs?
20:16This must be realistic.
20:18And also, how about structural reform?
20:20So, there are things that have to be
20:22rejected.
20:23In Mr. Taufik's opinion,
20:24that this is only
20:26a few days,
20:28a game point,
20:30but there is still time
20:32to do things that
20:34don't have to wait until the end of this month
20:36or a new government,
20:38so that the new government, with a new format,
20:40will definitely need time.
20:42And then, the program
20:44to synchronize the ministries and institutions.
20:46This is what we expect
20:48from entrepreneurs to immediately
20:50reject the concrete regulations
20:52from the government.
20:53What's interesting is whether
20:55deflation and depotency will still happen or not.
20:57Then, how with the various
20:59conditions, we will discuss
21:01in the next segment.
21:03We will be back with Mr. Roy and Mr. Rizal.
21:05We will be right back after the break.
21:15Thank you for joining us
21:17in Market Review. Mr. Rizal,
21:19how do you see the projection with the movement
21:21of deflation in the future and then the decrease
21:23in the purchasing power of the people?
21:25Is there a potential? Will it continue or what?
21:27Yes, if the government
21:29remains silent, it will definitely continue.
21:31Maybe
21:33until it affects the recession
21:35of our GDP.
21:37It has to be immediately anticipated.
21:39Then, of course,
21:41we have to make a policy
21:43so that this does not happen
21:45through
21:47a short-term or
21:49fast-track policy to
21:51encourage consumption.
21:53In terms of consumption,
21:55we have to give incentives
21:57to the middle class,
21:59especially those who were affected earlier.
22:01The biggest costs so far are
22:03living costs, education,
22:05health, including
22:07other costs,
22:09including taxes, for example.
22:11For the time being, I think short-term
22:13must be done. The government must be brave.
22:15I think this is a bridging
22:17between the old government and the new government
22:19so that the market is also optimistic.
22:21Conditions like this are heavy.
22:23Secondly,
22:27short-term is good
22:29if there is
22:31a cut
22:33in terms of consumption reduction.
22:35It's good if the government gives incentives
22:37such as tax incentives
22:39for entrepreneurs,
22:41especially in the overhead,
22:43so that their
22:45prices can also be relatively competitive.
22:47Finally,
22:49for consumption,
22:51the middle class must be increased
22:53in terms of income.
22:55In addition to the additional
22:57job opportunities,
22:59the UMP must also be increased,
23:01especially in areas
23:03where the potential of the middle class
23:05has decreased from Rp9.4 million.
23:07The UMP must be increased immediately.
23:09Because the UMP
23:11will be released on November 21.
23:13But it's a bit difficult for us
23:15to wait for a long time.
23:17The depletion rate is increasing
23:19and it's getting harder and harder.
23:21Therefore,
23:23the government must
23:25be in a hurry
23:27with conditions like this
23:29and must be brave
23:31to innovate
23:33policies at the level
23:35of the middle class.
23:37Okay, that's it.
23:39It is the middle class that must also be
23:41paid attention to by the government.
23:43After the various incentives given
23:45for the lower part,
23:47Mr. Roy,
23:49how do you see the future?
23:51In this condition,
23:53even though the price is not moving
23:55at the retail level,
23:57it is more to the purchasing power of the community
23:59which is ultimately sustainable.
24:01How about the future for the industry?
24:03In the future,
24:05we as businessmen,
24:07with the situation as the leading sector
24:09in terms of economic strength
24:11through household consumption,
24:13we have never been a priority sector.
24:15Therefore,
24:17we who are active in economic growth
24:19through household consumption
24:21have never received incentives
24:23for the business sector.
24:25On the one hand, we are trying
24:27to follow the rules
24:29of IT,
24:31how to manage the price,
24:33and so on.
24:35But in this situation,
24:37to survive, we must be able to survive.
24:39Because if we are also affected
24:41by the impact of manufacturers,
24:43the industry, the leading sector,
24:45then consumption will definitely be
24:47greatly reduced.
24:49Because there will be no more
24:51sales,
24:53or what we call reducing
24:55the consumption for the community.
24:57That will give an impact.
24:59We hope that there will be incentives
25:01related to the trading sector.
25:03Secondly,
25:05incentives for the affected communities.
25:07The government must have a lot of
25:09incentives for that.
25:11This is the last one.
25:13Maintaining food availability
25:15and stability.
25:17Because this is a key issue for the community.
25:19We have a high inflation
25:21in food and beverage,
25:23because the main community
25:25is still fluctuating.
25:27We are heading towards the end of the year.
25:29Usually, the total of the commodity price
25:31will increase.
25:33This means that the community will be affected
25:35for the purchasing power.
25:37To prevent this from increasing,
25:39the government must have an active partnership
25:41with the Ministry of Agriculture,
25:43with the various instruments they have,
25:45to maintain.
25:47How to import subsidies
25:49so that the price does not increase
25:51at the end of the year.
25:53How is the productivity
25:55of our food products, our agriculture.
25:57This needs to be concentrated
25:59before the move of the government
26:01or later on,
26:03who will be the related ministry
26:05for food production.
26:07Thank you to the food industry
26:09at the end of the year,
26:11so that we are not more affected
26:13by the economic conditions
26:15of the household consumption sector.
26:17Especially the biggest contributor
26:19of our domestic products.
26:21Thank you for the recommendations
26:23you have given in relation to the current conditions.
26:25And also, Mr. Rizal, thank you for the information,
26:27recommendations and analysis
26:29you have given to the audience today.
26:31Congratulations on continuing your activities again.
26:33See you again.
26:35Mr. Rizal, thank you.