Kinerja penjualan eceran pada Oktober 2023 diprakirakan akan meningkat. Hal ini berdasarkan data Indeks Penjualan Riil (IPR) bulan Oktober 2023 yang tercatat sebesar 206,3 atau tumbuh 1,8 persen secara tahunan. Peningkatan kinerja penjualan ritel didorong kelompok perlengkapan rumah tangga lainnya, suku cadang dan aksesori, serta makanan, minuman dan tembakau.
Sedangkan secara bulanan, penjualan eceran diprediksi naik 2,6 persen yang didorong beberapa kelompok seperti makanan, minuman dan tembakau, serta perlengkapan rumah tangga lainnya. Kinerja IPR Oktober 2023 tercatat meningkat dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya sebesar 200,2. Angka IPR oktober 2023 juga tercatat lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan Oktober 2022 sebesar 204,3.
Momen libur Natal dan Tahun Baru, serta perhelatan tahun politik dinilai akan menjadi booster kinerja penjualan industri ritel hingga akhir tahun 2023.
Sedangkan secara bulanan, penjualan eceran diprediksi naik 2,6 persen yang didorong beberapa kelompok seperti makanan, minuman dan tembakau, serta perlengkapan rumah tangga lainnya. Kinerja IPR Oktober 2023 tercatat meningkat dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya sebesar 200,2. Angka IPR oktober 2023 juga tercatat lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan Oktober 2022 sebesar 204,3.
Momen libur Natal dan Tahun Baru, serta perhelatan tahun politik dinilai akan menjadi booster kinerja penjualan industri ritel hingga akhir tahun 2023.
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TVTranscript
00:00 The retail sales of Kinerja will continue to rise until the end of 2023
00:06 This is based on the sales index of real in October this year
00:10 which is recorded as 206.3 or up compared to the previous month
00:15 The sales of Eceran in October 2023 is expected to increase
00:24 This is based on the sales index of real or IPR in October 2023
00:30 which is recorded as 206.3 or 1.8% annually
00:36 The increase in retail sales of Kinerja is pushed by other household appliances groups
00:41 stock and accessories, as well as food, drinks and tobacco
00:46 Meanwhile, monthly sales of Eceran is predicted to increase by 2.6%
00:51 pushed by several groups such as food, drinks and tobacco
00:55 as well as other household appliances
00:58 The sales of Kinerja in October 2023 is recorded to increase compared to the previous month as big as 200.2
01:04 The sales index of October 2023 is also recorded to be higher compared to October 2022 as big as 204.3
01:12 While the number of economists predicts
01:15 the trend of positive growth in the retail industry will continue until the end of 2023
01:20 because at the end of the year, the purchasing power of the people usually improves
01:23 along with the momentum of Christmas and New Year holidays
01:26 In addition, the increase in government spending that occurred at the end of the year
01:31 to pursue the realization of APBN spending
01:34 has not been added with the passing of the five-year democracy festival
01:37 which has started to feel the impact of this time
01:40 From Jakarta Tim Liputan, IDX Channel
01:48 Okay, Mr. Mirso, to discuss our interesting topic today
01:51 related to the trend of increasing retail sales that is predicted to continue
01:54 has been connected through Zoom with Mr. Roy Nicholas Mandi
01:58 He is the general manager of the DPP Association of Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs or APRINDO
02:02 Good morning, Mr. Roy
02:03 Good morning, Mr. Pras
02:05 IDX Channel
02:07 Assalamualaikum, Salam Sehat, Semangat
02:10 Okay, Mr. Roy is very excited because the data has been delivered when showing the trend of increase
02:15 But before that, we will review first
02:18 How has the trend of retail industry been along the journey in 2023, Mr. Roy?
02:24 Yes, Mr. Pras
02:26 So we are still in the anomaly period
02:30 where this anomaly is the impact of challenges
02:34 both local and global
02:37 which is more present now
02:41 So after the COVID pandemic, we are facing high inflation challenges in various countries
02:49 Outside Indonesia, there are still countries that have an inflation rate of between 80% to 120%
02:56 Then there is also a shift from the economic growth of various countries
03:01 The advanced countries are now expected to grow between 1% to 2%
03:10 There are even some advanced countries that are only below 1%
03:18 Then there is also climate change with various changes in temperature, hurricanes, floods, etc.
03:27 This is also a little bit, a lot of things that affect us in Indonesia
03:32 The link in Indonesia is the supply chain
03:35 which is also affected by the problems
03:40 We hope in 2023, we can, even though in the middle of challenges
03:46 but we are still appreciating the improvements
03:49 even we appreciate the government
03:51 which keeps the two populist policies
03:54 fiscal and monetary policy
03:56 so that we have inflation in October, it's 2.56% year on year
04:01 and this is back before the pandemic actually
04:05 Before the pandemic, we were at 3% to 3.2%
04:09 Then our trust, our consumer trust
04:13 is surveyed how the people spend money, it's 124.3%
04:19 Then the previous one, the real sales index, 106, increased by 1.8%
04:25 on average 1% to 2%
04:27 This is a good synergy to close at the end of the year
04:30 These are some indicators that are very significant for the modern retail
04:34 With the survey results from Bank Indonesia
04:37 related to the real sales index in October
04:40 at around 206.3%
04:44 This is indeed experiencing a rise compared to before
04:46 But do you see this as a strong indicator
04:49 that the retail industry will continue to grow positively at least until the end of the year?
04:54 Yes, that's right, Mr. Prats
04:56 So at least we know there are a few things that will give an opinion to retail
05:04 especially later, the end is to household consumption
05:08 for growth, our economy, our economy, almost 52%
05:12 is contributed by household consumption
05:14 The first is the government's spending that must be collected
05:20 by the end of the year and it must reach the budget targets
05:24 that have been planned by the Ministry of the Interior in accordance with the APBN
05:29 Then the second is the democracy fest
05:32 where we know there is consumption that will increase for the needs
05:37 The name is a party, Mr. Prats
05:39 There must be a need for a democracy party for the consumption sector
05:45 Then the third is Natura
05:47 Natura is also at the end of the year, Christmas and New Year
05:52 and the people usually spend money on vacation, buying extra food and drinks
05:58 doing transportation, traveling
06:01 So all of that will move the consumption sector
06:04 These are some interesting things for us to be optimistic
06:09 that at the end of this year we can be in economic growth
06:13 between 4.9% and 5.1%
06:15 and retail is at a growth of around 4%
06:19 more than last year which was only around 3.7% and 3.8%
06:24 Okay, that's it, some positive things
06:27 it seems that it still covers the retail industry
06:29 after the pandemic has hit the retail industry and slowly it has started to rise again
06:34 We saw earlier from the performance of the IPR in October 2023
06:39 in terms of months or years compared to October 2022
06:42 it still shows a higher number than last year
06:46 So, do you see if this year will be better than last year
06:50 when viewed from the IPR's energy side
06:52 then how is the purchasing power of the people today?
06:56 Yes, at least there are three indicators that I have mentioned earlier
06:59 the maintenance inflation
07:01 then also the IPR, the real sales index, 206
07:05 which increased by almost 1.8%
07:08 and our IKK, the consumer goods index
07:10 the people still spend around 124.3
07:14 Now this is a good signalment
07:16 but this good signalment must be maintained
07:20 this can change at some point when it is not maintained
07:28 What should be maintained? Conducivity
07:31 We are in the Democracy Festival
07:35 the adults and the adults are in politics
07:38 so we maintain our economic conducivity
07:42 then the second, how we also
07:45 still prioritize the interests of humanity
07:49 the peace that we often talk about
07:51 but not related to the negative economy
07:58 that we do not expect
08:00 These two things need to be maintained
08:03 until the last two months
08:05 or after the beginning of 2024
08:08 Yes, interesting, we know that recently there was a boycott action
08:12 related to products affiliated with Israeli companies
08:17 and do you think this has an impact on the sales or production rate
08:23 of retail business in Indonesia?
08:26 Yes, this is the second point that I mentioned earlier
08:30 so besides the Democracy Festival that must be conducive
08:33 but how we maintain ourselves
08:36 maintain our economy, maintain our nation and country
08:40 we certainly support the mission of humanity
08:44 peace that we continue to excite
08:46 because this is the outcome that we hope for
08:49 but of course we hope
08:51 even if it happens, yes, these few days
08:53 it's already on social media
08:56 especially the news related to the economy
09:00 this is what we need to take care of
09:02 because our economy is recovering
09:05 we are facing a global atmosphere
09:08 that is not just good
09:10 of course we are good, we must maintain our condition
09:14 because the condition that is not just good is global
09:17 it has affected our export problem
09:20 our import, which must be sustainable export
09:23 higher import because the currency is also rising
09:26 our BI rate is also rising
09:28 it's almost 6%
09:31 the FED rate is almost 5.5%
09:34 so this global atmosphere must be maintained
09:38 don't let the bad problems in the global
09:41 eventually transfer to us
09:43 in the already good and already maintained
09:47 this is what we need together
09:50 smarter, smarter, normal shopping
09:54 not panic but also not stop buying or consuming
09:58 because it will continue the economic trade
10:01 and in the end, this trade is not from retail
10:05 the goods are from the producer
10:07 if the producer can't sell the goods through retail
10:10 they will pay the interest
10:12 the impact will be harmful to our ability
10:15 to spend money or purchasing power
10:19 where we see it now
10:21 it has improved the consumer's export index and our IPR
10:25 but directly, the impact of the businessmen
10:28 how do you feel about this boycott?
10:31 currently, it hasn't had a direct impact
10:34 because these are just the messages that are spread on social media
10:39 and APRINDO with various associations
10:43 will soon provide an explanation
10:47 public opinion with the senior sector
10:50 we are the middle sector
10:52 that we are very in favor of peace and human rights
10:56 but we have to protect the economy
10:59 especially in this situation
11:01 as I said before, the government is not doing well
11:07 don't let us be affected
11:14 this economy is very productive
11:17 and of course the people can meet their daily needs
11:21 strategy for them, we know retail stores are directly facing the public
11:25 is there a specific strategy that will be applied by APRINDO?
11:29 like the boycott
11:33 yes, of course we are consolidating
11:38 to provide explanations to the consumer
11:42 to the public
11:43 because I take an example
11:45 when a housewife wants to buy milk for her baby
11:49 then the milk is not allowed to be bought
11:55 or not to buy
11:57 while there is no other milk choice
11:59 how can you replace milk with water?
12:04 this is a basic need
12:07 so of course we have to pay attention to it
12:11 and on the other hand
12:13 when we also expect our brothers and sisters to continue to work
12:17 but if there is a reduction in consumption transactions
12:22 automatically there will be PHK, there will be Adundum to give impact to the difficulties
12:27 and this is what we must protect and advance
12:31 we agree to support peace and human rights
12:36 but for the economy, it's a different side
12:39 we have to protect our economy, our growth
12:42 and this is what APRINDO has done to address the current development in the country
12:47 then if we talk about the increase in the IPR
12:51 from the spending index, the community
12:54 then also related to the sale of real retail
12:57 can you see if this can be delivered?
13:00 what kind of products are from retail that are still absorbed by the community?
13:04 but hold on, the answer is partial, we will wait a moment
13:07 Mr. Mirza, don't be hasty from your place
13:09 we will be right back
13:11 you are still watching the market review, Mr. Mirza
13:14 before we continue to talk again with Mr. Roy Nuklasman
13:17 the general director of APRINDO
13:19 we will provide some data first
13:22 we will start from the sale index of real
13:24 in October 2023 when it was released by the Indonesian Bank
13:28 where in October 2023 was recorded 206.3 points
13:32 while in September 2023, 200.2 points
13:36 so there is an increase compared to the previous month
13:39 and we compare annually in October 2022
13:43 the sale index of real in October this year also seems to experience an increase
13:48 204.3 points in October 2022
13:53 well, next we will see from the retail sales index per October 2023
13:59 for the real sales index we see from January to October
14:07 the trend is that Mr. Mirza experienced the highest index in April
14:13 242.9 points
14:16 but the tendency is down, we will see later
14:19 what moment is there in April
14:21 then in May there was another decrease of 234.2
14:25 then reached a fairly low level of 200.2 in September last year
14:31 and in October there was an increase to 206.3 points
14:36 in the real sales index in October 2023 annually
14:41 let's continue the discussion with Mr. Roy Mande
14:44 Mr. Roy, we will continue again
14:47 it is interesting if we look at the real sales index
14:49 it has been said that the trend was the highest in April
14:53 there was a momentum in April, then it went down again
14:56 the lowest in September 2023
14:59 what moment is there in the event or in the months?
15:04 like the life cycle, retail is also no different from the life cycle
15:10 there are times when our season is the season of Ramadan, fasting, and Eid
15:20 our community, of course, the people who are in the lobby
15:25 the people who are always on duty
15:29 so there is always an extra purchase, consumption in those months that increases
15:35 especially since it has become a tradition that the monthly salary of 13
15:40 or income in the extra for Eid, it is always spent
15:46 it has been from time to time
15:48 and that is reflected when we see consumption rising in April
15:54 and when in September it went down, we know that the global ticker is getting worse
16:03 so there is a desire of the people to also
16:08 and at the same time there is a price fluctuation
16:11 there is an increase in rice prices, sugar, then there is a shift in the prices
16:18 5-10% commodity that has increased
16:23 so the people are holding back their spending
16:26 holding back their spending because they also want
16:29 meaning they hope maybe at the end of this year it will be better again, normal again
16:35 then also those who see all the situations
16:37 so there is what is called a cyclist's risk-free mode
16:41 people hold back their spending to see the situation
16:44 but at the time the situation has also been answered
16:48 now it's completely normal
16:50 the commodity price, although there are some that have risen, but the rise is still normal
16:55 and also what else is supported by information, propaganda, our economy that is improving
17:01 especially on the side of innovation
17:03 then also how we face the situation of a democracy festival
17:09 which of course this will also give a fresh wind
17:13 especially for the dynamization of our government
17:18 now this is of course the people are spending again and this is starting to increase
17:22 in 206 which was in October and October
17:24 we do hope in November, December this is around the number of 210 to 212
17:32 the IPR will touch the number of the level
17:35 so we can close our economic growth according to our expectations
17:39 still around 5% plus minus 0.9, 0.1
17:44 and our retail contributes to the growth of all aggregates which is around 4%
17:51 this gives hope for 2024 we have a better ability
17:58 so if from the side of retail products, as long as it has been supporting from the energy itself
18:03 which one is it, Mr. Roy?
18:05 yes, which is almost 52-55% in the food sector
18:11 the food sector is still dominating because of course our community is ranked 4th in the population
18:18 278 million, eating and drinking becomes a significant asset
18:22 then the next non-food
18:25 because this non-food is also a part of course related
18:28 when we face the Ramadan, Eid, and Eid al-Fitr
18:33 now there are two seasons that we know
18:35 the percentage in the month of Ramadan and Eid usually places in the portion of almost 60%
18:42 55-60% sales, the rest are natural and ordinary months
18:47 this is what will increase the ability that we are optimistic for the food sector
18:54 of course still be a part of the retail industry and consumerism
19:01 yes, so the booster factors from the retail industry are related to the holiday of religion
19:06 then the long school holidays
19:08 there was already Eid, then Christmas and New Year
19:12 how strong will the momentum be a booster for the retail industry at the end of the year?
19:19 yes, of course we hope that if we look at the first quarter
19:26 it is not different from the fourth quarter of December 2022
19:30 in the second quarter at the peak, in the third quarter we went down
19:34 but in the fourth quarter we expect it to be about 80-90% the same as the second quarter
19:42 so with the note, if we take the aggregate
19:46 then overall this year we are a little or the same as last year
19:54 not exceeding the condition of last year but we are less the same
20:00 so of course the predictions have been said that we can still be estimated at 4.9-5.1% economic growth
20:09 one of the other boosters, at the end of the year, the government spending is usually increased
20:14 or experienced this increase, how is it?
20:16 is there a strong correlation with the retail industry later?
20:21 correct, correct, so if you do not want to budget, the escalation must be reached
20:29 must be achieved according to what is planned
20:33 so that what is not finished in the last semester, this second semester is an expectation to be fulfilled
20:39 and that is usually the last quarter
20:43 so if I count the quarters per three months, so one year four quarters
20:48 so starting in October, November, December there will be an increase
20:52 in the export, if we mention household consumption export
20:56 but there is also government export which is a component of our domestic products
21:01 government export is of course not only about food but also non-food
21:07 the need for operational, the Ministry of Agriculture related to operational support
21:15 then also related to how the documentation must be prepared
21:22 and at the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture has also started to make a plan for the future
21:27 so anything related to forums, group discussions, workshops, etc.
21:32 must be fulfilled to be able to reach the budget that has been prepared in 2023
21:39 so related to the trend of increasing retail sales as predicted, will continue to rise until the end of the year
21:45 is there an expansion step that has been prepared by friends of Aprindo or an additional investment?
21:51 so back again, the key word is conductivity towards the situation or path of the democracy map
22:00 when it comes to conductivity, we have already pointed out that conductivity is an important thing
22:07 then the expansion will continue, we have received news from various members
22:13 there are those who are preparing to open 2-3 stores at the beginning of the year
22:21 it means that the development is already underway now and is ready to open
22:26 then we will talk about the growth of the retail sector from the opening of stores or drive
22:33 but there is also one side that will concern us if the government does not pay attention to the issue of illegal imports
22:42 this is also a disturbing thing, because the issue of conductivity must be maintained
22:48 but illegal imports, this must be really not only acted on, but also transparent
22:56 then the clear legal steps are taken, so that there is a significant impact to not repeat it again
23:07 these illegal imports also affect the trading sector
23:13 because goods that do not go through taxes or goods that are fake or fake goods
23:23 goods that are used and various other things that are illegally imported must be banned
23:30 must be taken seriously because this is what destroys the trade and ecosystem that we have built
23:38 these two steps must be maintained so that our expansion can continue
23:45 and we have optimism to continue to move forward and continue to produce
23:51 what is the target for the end of the year for the retail industry?
23:54 if you mentioned earlier 4% and 4% will be easily achieved or do you need stronger efforts?
24:01 yes, of course we have to make efforts because we are facing all the challenges that can not be predicted
24:09 for example, how do we explain the latest conditions, you asked about the excitement on social media
24:18 about the funding and so on, where we hope it will not happen
24:22 but let the mission of humanity and peace be what we keep pushing
24:27 because the economy is something that is independent
24:30 then the second is how the government supports the sector that contributes to the economy
24:36 the household consumption sector, for example, this is not finished yet
24:40 and we want to expect it to close before this year, namely refunding the fried food
24:45 this also hinders our expansion because we have to pay back the capital
24:53 while the capital that does not return because the payment is still being held
24:57 with all the reasons, all the conditions, this will tighten the retail sector
25:03 and finally to consumption and ultimately to the economy, not a significant growth
25:09 because when we can expand with the existing capital, with the funds that are funded
25:14 then it will contribute to the increase in productivity and consumption
25:19 so that the economy is affected, this is what needs to be a thought and concrete steps
25:27 for the solution that we are waiting for and hope for
25:30 that's it, optimism that is still built even though there are still housework that must be completed
25:35 yes, that's right
25:36 Farouk, thank you very much for your time and sharing that you have shared
25:40 and it's an interesting insight for the audience in the development of the retail industry in Indonesia
25:44 happy to continue your activities, greetings, Farouk, thank you
25:48 thank you, greetings to all, stay healthy for all of us, greetings
25:52 greetings
25:53 well, audience, I have been with you for an hour in the market review program
25:56 I am Prasetyo Ibowo, with the work team that is in charge of Undudiri
26:00 thank you and see you
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