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00:00What was the question you just asked me?
00:02Off the air?
00:03Yeah.
00:04You want me to bring that?
00:05Bring it.
00:06I would love to.
00:07Which team, and I was thinking of the three professional teams here, but the Niners are
00:11clearly the one with the lowest odds to win a title next year.
00:15The Super Bowl odds are already out for next year.
00:17What are the Niners?
00:18The Niners are 18-1.
00:19And where does that rank?
00:21That ranks number seven.
00:22You've got the Chiefs and Bills at 6-1, then it's Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Commanders, then
00:28it's the Niners and Bengals tied at 18-1.
00:32How quickly our thoughts change.
00:34The Commanders are more likely, in the minds of bettors, to win next year than the Niners.
00:39Yes.
00:40Wow.
00:41And...
00:42Jaden Daniels is good.
00:43All right, go ahead.
00:44The Raiders are 100-1, not last, but ahead of only the Saints, Titans, and Giants.
00:47It made me think, which team has lower odds to win a title?
00:53The 21-21 Warriors, or the 0-0 San Francisco Giants?
01:00And that's a great question.
01:05All right.
01:06Thank you, Buster.
01:07When you say lower odds, I want to make sure we define this correctly.
01:12Lower odds meaning longer odds.
01:14No, lower would be you have a better chance.
01:17A better chance.
01:18Right.
01:19Yeah.
01:20Higher would be longer.
01:22Lower would be better.
01:24I think that the city of Las Vegas, Nevada, and the bettors would say that the Warriors
01:34have a more likely chance of winning a championship than the San Francisco Giants.
01:39Interesting, because when you think about it, you've got a Warrior team that's 42 games
01:45into an 82-game season, and they are what the record says they are.
01:50Correct.
01:51And I believe the cliche actually works for them better than ever, because they kind of
01:54are 21-21.
01:55Well, yeah, and the Giants are what their record says they are, too.
01:59Which is 0-0.
02:00Correct.
02:01And you are correct, but it's a lot closer than you might think.
02:06Well, no, I would actually, now, if I were betting it, or ask me what I think is more
02:12likely.
02:13Hey, Mark, what do you think is more likely?
02:14Giants.
02:15Yeah.
02:16And I find both of them to be wildly unlikely.
02:19Well, and Vegas would agree with you, because the Warriors, as we sit right now, are plus
02:235,000, 50-1, to win the NBA championship to hoist the Larry O'Brien and the Giants.
02:32What do you think they are?
02:33Wait, what did you say the Warriors are?
02:3550-1.
02:3650-1, and I would say the Giants are 75.
02:4066-1, pretty good guess.
02:44But to me, it's actually not even, like there's no question that the Giants are more likely.
02:50For all kinds of sort of, maybe they're flimsy reasons, again, I agree that both are wildly
02:58unlikely, but first of all, the Giants play baseball, and baseball is where you can get
03:05a quirky championship the easiest.
03:08Points to you early for that.
03:09Secondly, I don't know what the, we don't even know who's on their roster.
03:13True.
03:15The unknown sits with the Giants.
03:18The Warriors, not only do we know exactly who they are, not only do we look at the current
03:24trade market and see not much in the way of answers, but for me, the reason the Warriors
03:31are just like almost completely off the table, the Warriors could end up being really good.
03:36They could make a trade, get healthy, and start humming.
03:40Do you realize how many teams they need to cross, and how often something like that happens
03:46in the NBA?
03:47I'd argue, and I don't have this in front of me, but I would bet that no team in the
03:54history of the NBA has been the 11th seed at the halfway point and then won a title.
04:01I bet that's never happened in the history of ever.
04:04And then won a title is the interesting part, because we know that Miami was an 8th seed
04:08and they made the finals, and we know that Houston was a 6th seed and they won the finals.
04:14But the Warriors are the 11th seed.
04:17Right.
04:18Like, I don't think, you know what I mean?
04:19There's nothing that's going to make the Warriors able to beat Oklahoma City here in a few months.
04:26Like that, that, that's, that is actually in this moment, that's more bananas than the
04:32idea of the Giants beating the Dodgers in a five game series.
04:35Well, you're right because, and you mentioned it, the flimsy nature, and it's even more,
04:40I think the word I would use would be whimsical.
04:44Baseball can be whimsical.
04:45Yeah.
04:46Logan Webb, friend of the program, could go out and throw a three hitter and you could
04:49win one nothing.
04:50Absolutely.
04:51In a fluky fashion.
04:52And then you can go out there and win two to one against Yamamoto.
04:58Yamamoto makes one mistake and somebody hits a two run yacker and then, you know, the Dodgers
05:04maybe commit a couple of errors and all of a sudden you steal that game.
05:07And, you know, baseball is much more stealable, flimsy, whimsical than base, than basketball.
05:13But you're talking about a playoff series.
05:15Right.
05:16I'm sitting here in January saying Shohei, Yamamoto, Betts, and Freeman could all get
05:21hurt and miss the year.
05:24I don't even know that, like the Dodgers are not a hundred percent to make the playoffs.
05:30What are their World Series odds?
05:31The Dodgers?
05:32Yeah.
05:33Minus two million.
05:34No, they're plus two ninety.
05:37Plus two ninety.
05:38Right.
05:39Which is three to one odds.
05:41And the next closest is the Yankees at eight to one.
05:44But they're still telling you that if you bet money on the Dodgers to win the World
05:48Series, they'll give you more back.
05:49Well, yeah.
05:50I mean, that's futures.
05:51But that means that they're saying it's a less than 50-50 proposition, even on the Dodgers
05:56to win the whole thing.
05:57Right.
05:5850-50 would be, you know, minus one hundred or plus one hundred.
06:02But you'll never see that in the futures market.
06:04Right.
06:05To have a team, especially in baseball, as you mentioned, for a team to be plus two ninety
06:09in baseball is really surprising.
06:11And I'll even relate it to the NBA.
06:14Right now, Boston is plus 220 and OKC is plus 250.
06:20But that's half a year in.
06:21And then Cleveland is, Cleveland's a nice price at plus 750.
06:25Ooh, that is a nice price.
06:26They're good.
06:27They are good.
06:28They're incredible.
06:29But Boston, what you've seen is going to go back to back.
06:32You're still getting plus money on it.
06:34You bet one hundred to win 220.
06:35Speaking of Boston, you were saying you would bet there's never been a team that was 11th
06:40at this stage of the season and won the championship.
06:42They didn't win the championship.
06:44Boston in 2022 went to the finals.
06:46They were 21 and 22, 11th in the East.
06:5011th.
06:51Interesting.
06:52Yeah.
06:53No, I knew they were 500 at this point.
06:54And so I still use those two examples as to and this is on a much smaller scale to
07:00those who say, can the Warriors even be good in the second half?
07:04Well, yeah, absolutely.
07:06They could be, you know, I know right now the idea of a four game win streak feels like
07:10a climbing Mount Everest.
07:13But here's your two examples, one of them being what Granny just said, that phenomenal
07:17Celtics team that led the Warriors to one in the finals was 21 and 22 once upon a time
07:23their opponent tonight, their opponent tonight, fans were literally ready to pull each other's
07:28hair out.
07:29They were so mad at what was happening with the Sacramento Kings this year.
07:33And then they hired a new coach and they went seven in a row.
07:37And now they're right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
07:40So like, can the Warriors get healthy and be good a month from now?
07:45Sure, sure.
07:46The title contention to me feels like completely off the table.
07:53It feels completely off the table.
07:54It'd be a stretch.
07:55And, you know, you look at that and Granny's right about the fact that on January 14th,
08:02when they lost, they were 21 and 22.
08:04They were the 11 seed, but they were only, let's see, they were two games out of the
08:11seven seed.
08:12So it's kind of similar to what the Warriors are, right?
08:14Boston did end that year on a 30 of 38 run.
08:19So they won 30 of their last 38, which got them to where they needed to be.
08:24And they actually, they never, well, they got to the one seed for a day and then they
08:28wound up as the two.
08:30But when you go 30 and eight over the last 38, you can do some things.
08:34So the Warriors are allowed to finish the year at 30 and eight.
08:38They still won't be the one seed, even if they do.