Mengawali 2025, sejumlah industri pengguna gas bumi yang mendapatkan fasilitas program Harga Gas Bumi Tertentu atau HGBT tengah harap-harap cemas. Hal ini seiring dengan telah berakhirnya kebijakan HGBT yang diperuntukkan bagi 7 sektor industri senilai USD6 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU) pada 31 Desember 2024 lalu.
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral seperti dikutip media menyebutkan, keputusan mengenai kelanjutan hingga sektor penerima HGBT di 2025 masih akan dibahas melalui rapat bersama Presiden Prabowo Subianto. Nantinya, aturan baru mengenai HGBT tahun ini akan tertuang dalam peraturan presiden, dimana Pemerintah akan mempertimbangkan pasokan gas dan kecukupan dari penerimaan negara di 2025.
Dengan demikian, selama menunggu keputusan Pemerintah terkait kelanjutan penerapan kebijakan Harga Gas Bumi Tertentu untuk 2025, maka harga gas murah untuk 7 industri penerima HGBT akan mengikuti harga komersial saat ini.
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral seperti dikutip media menyebutkan, keputusan mengenai kelanjutan hingga sektor penerima HGBT di 2025 masih akan dibahas melalui rapat bersama Presiden Prabowo Subianto. Nantinya, aturan baru mengenai HGBT tahun ini akan tertuang dalam peraturan presiden, dimana Pemerintah akan mempertimbangkan pasokan gas dan kecukupan dari penerimaan negara di 2025.
Dengan demikian, selama menunggu keputusan Pemerintah terkait kelanjutan penerapan kebijakan Harga Gas Bumi Tertentu untuk 2025, maka harga gas murah untuk 7 industri penerima HGBT akan mengikuti harga komersial saat ini.
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TVTranscript
00:00Hello viewers, how are you today, straight from the AIDX studio in Jakarta, I am Prasetyo Wibowo,
00:28back again in Market Review, a program that solves the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia.
00:34You can also watch our live streaming on Aidxchannel.com.
00:37And let's start the Market Review.
01:12In 2025, a number of land-fueled industrialists who have certain land-fuel price program facilities, or HGBT, are in dire straits.
01:23This is in line with the HGBT policy that has been established for 7 industrial sectors worth US$6 per metric million British Thermal Unit, or MMBTU, on 31 December 2024.
01:38The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as quoted by the media,
01:42the decision on the continuation of the HGBT reception sector in 2025 will still be discussed through a meeting with President Prabowo Subianto.
01:51Later, a new regulation on HGBT this year will be based on the President's Regulation,
01:56where the government will provide gas supplies and sufficiency from state reception in 2025.
02:04Meanwhile, the 7 sectors that have long been subject to certain land-fuel price policies include the fertilizer industry, petrochemicals,
02:12oleochemicals, fertilizers, ceramics, glasses, and work gloves.
02:17Even the Ministry of Home Affairs has received additional recommendations for as many as 15 industrial sub-sectors proposed as recipients of the HGBT program.
02:27Thus, while waiting for the government's decision on the continuation of the implementation of certain land-fuel price policies or HGBT in 2025,
02:35the cheap price of gas for the 7 HGBT reception industries will follow the commercial price.
02:41Jakarta, coverage team, IDX Channel.
02:44HGBT Industry Subsidy Program
02:50Yes, Mr. Mirsa, to discuss our interesting topic this time,
02:53waiting for the continuation of the HGBT Industry Subsidy Program in 2025,
02:58is already present with me at the IDX Channel studio.
03:01There is Mr. Justinus Gunawan, he is the Chairperson of the Industry Forum for Land Gas Users.
03:06Hello, how are you, sir?
03:08Good, thank you.
03:09Thank you for your presence, Mr. Justinus, at the IDX Channel studio.
03:13And it's already combined through Zoom.
03:16Mr. Yayan Satyakti, Economic and Energy Observer from Pajajaran University.
03:22Hello, how are you, Mr. Yayan?
03:24Good, how are you, Mr. Parasteo and Mr. Justinus?
03:27Good, thank you for your time.
03:30And right away, before discussing further, Mr. Justinus,
03:33we will review first from the FIPGB glasses,
03:37related to the use, availability of our land gas supply throughout 2024,
03:44what is the condition like?
03:46The availability or production of gas is very superior compared to domestic needs.
03:53However, the supply to the country, although the percentage is large,
03:57but still very low.
03:59Because no matter what, the industry must take advantage of production capacity
04:05up to 100% if possible.
04:09And that is done.
04:10During the pandemic, due to HGBT,
04:13the utilization has been boosted so that the utilization has increased.
04:18Even paying gas is more expensive than HGBT.
04:23Because we want to get a momentum of activity,
04:27as high as possible, that's what we're after.
04:31Until now, we are confident that we have the resilience of the manufacturing industry.
04:37Okay, so the supply is also abundant,
04:41in terms of production, only when it enters the industry, sir?
04:45That's right, especially there is a quota.
04:48Okay.
04:49So that quota, exceeding the quota, is charged a very high cost.
04:53Even because there is no certainty of HGBT continuation,
04:57so it is charged a high price.
05:00Okay.
05:01The price is so high, this is a pinch to the industry,
05:03so they are now ready to reduce production.
05:07Okay, okay.
05:08So the order filling, only for orders that have been committed,
05:12using existing stock.
05:14If there is a new order, then we look at the existing stock,
05:18and it is filled.
05:19Because if we receive an order at that high price,
05:22the buyer will definitely run away.
05:24Okay.
05:25Especially foreign buyers who are very difficult to be taken back,
05:28if they have left.
05:29Okay, Mr. Justus.
05:31Mr. Ian, how, from your point of view,
05:34how do you see the management of the gas supply,
05:37the occurrence and production of our gas in 2024,
05:41and in 2025, are the challenges still the same?
05:46Okay, maybe we look first at the global price prospects.
05:50So if we look at it, based on projections,
05:55for example, in the short-term energy outlook,
05:59and we also see it in GDP statistics and others,
06:03that the gas price is likely to be around $6 in 2022,
06:10per MMBTU, if I'm not mistaken.
06:13This is down 50% in 2025.
06:17So around $3,
06:19based on world projections.
06:25Then, what does it mean?
06:27It means that if we look at the global market price,
06:33it is declining because there is a lot of production,
06:39especially Indonesia as one of the largest gas producers in the world.
06:45Okay.
06:46So if we look at it from the production side,
06:48it should be like before.
06:50This is confirmed by Mr. Yustrinus.
06:52From the primary energy side, we have a surplus.
06:55But when we enter the energy final,
07:00especially when entering the industry,
07:02this becomes a bottleneck.
07:04If we look here,
07:07using the 185 sector input-output table data,
07:11from the Statistic Center,
07:14that the multiplier effect,
07:16especially for the MIGAS sector,
07:18compared to other sectors,
07:20such as natural gas production,
07:23vaporization,
07:24water,
07:25hot water,
07:26cold air,
07:27and ice production,
07:28is around 29.4%.
07:31Then fertilizer is 23.50%,
07:33electricity is 20.17%,
07:35then the oil and gas production is 9.90%,
07:39glass production is 9.60%,
07:42then the goods from Tanah Liat is 8.72%,
07:45and the basic iron and steel production is 6.92%.
07:49Then there is also the basic chemistry,
07:51except for fertilizer and others.
07:52So if we look at it,
07:54the multiplier is between the entire sector,
07:59the 185 sector,
08:01is above 5%.
08:02This means that the multiplier effect,
08:04if totaled, is approximately 3 times.
08:06So if we look at the benefits of gas,
08:10we are one of the producers,
08:12but the multiplier effect is still relatively small,
08:14only 3 times.
08:15And if we look at the benefits of domestic gas,
08:19especially for the industry,
08:20it's only around 20% to 5%.
08:23So if we look at it here,
08:24gas is not for our benefit,
08:28but it is sold,
08:29then we take advantage of it from the sales results.
08:33Meanwhile, if we look at the sales results,
08:36the trade margin is also,
08:38if we look at the multiplier effect,
08:40for example, to the creation of labor,
08:42and others,
08:43it's relatively,
08:44maybe more,
08:45maybe here it's just quick yield,
08:47which means you get money quickly,
08:49but if it's from the side of the creation of labor,
08:52I think this is relatively very,
08:55maybe small.
08:57If we look here,
08:59also with the same data,
09:02then we do an analysis,
09:04suppose,
09:05suppose the price of gas goes up,
09:081% to 30%,
09:10let's say,
09:11suppose,
09:12it turns out that the average impact is more or less,
09:17for example, like the TPT sector,
09:20this TPT is around 20%,
09:21so there will be a decrease,
09:23the output is as much as 20%,
09:26then also,
09:27for example, like earlier,
09:28chemical 18%,
09:30then also rubber 19%,
09:33then also,
09:35other sectors,
09:36it's around 3% to 5%.
09:39It means,
09:40for example,
09:41now the price of gas is rising,
09:43for the industry,
09:44it will weaken,
09:46especially production,
09:48and will reduce output,
09:50and it will,
09:51if we look at,
09:53for example,
09:54Kinerja Explor,
09:55it will reduce Kinerja Explor,
09:57for example,
09:58for the TPT industry,
09:59it's around 28%.
10:02Okay.
10:03So, this will reduce competitiveness,
10:06especially the industry in Indonesia.
10:08Yes, Mr. Ian,
10:09we will see later how effective,
10:11from the price of natural gas,
10:13for example,
10:14for some industries,
10:16there are 7 industries that have been using HGBT
10:19at 6 dollars per MBTU.
10:22We will discuss later in the next segment.
10:24We will be back in a moment with Mr. Mirsa.
10:25Make sure you are still with us.
10:32HGBT Q&A
10:37HGBT Q&A
10:46Thank you for still joining us in Market Review.
10:48Next segment,
10:49we will be sharing data for you
10:51about 7 industries that have been using HGBT
10:54from any industry.
10:56As you can see on the TV screen,
10:59there are fertilizers,
11:00petrochemicals,
11:01oleosemicals,
11:02beads,
11:03ceramics,
11:04glass,
11:05gloves,
11:06rubber.
11:07There is even a promise to expand
11:08when there are additional 15 industries
11:11that can get the HGBT program.
11:14Even though,
11:15this is still in the process of discussion by the government.
11:18Next is PMI Manufaktur Indonesia.
11:20After months,
11:22in the last 5 months,
11:23we experienced a level of contraction,
11:26and in December,
11:27we rebounded to 51.2 points,
11:30or we are back to the level of expansion
11:33for PMI Manufaktur Indonesia.
11:36We will continue our discussion today
11:38with Mr. Justinus Gunawan,
11:40the Chairperson of Forum Industri Pengguna Gas Bumi,
11:43and Mr. Ian Satyakti
11:45from Pajajara University.
11:47Mr. Justinus,
11:48how effective is the implementation of HGBT
11:52of US$6 per MMBT?
11:54As Mr. Ian said,
11:56the impact is quite scary,
11:59Mr. Justinus,
12:01if the price goes up.
12:04So far,
12:05there has been no decision to continue HGBT.
12:08Is the industry using the commercial gas price,
12:11or how, Mr. Justinus?
12:12Starting in January,
12:14the commercial price will be applied
12:16at US$16.77.
12:18US$16.77, wow.
12:20Very high compared to HGBT of US$6.5.
12:22Okay.
12:23If we look back,
12:25last year,
12:26the price went up
12:28from US$6.5 per MMBT.
12:31It can still be applied,
12:32because 2-3 years ago,
12:34the industry has gained some vitality.
12:37Okay.
12:38The impact is that the utilization has increased.
12:41Even in the beginning of the 3rd year,
12:45the average utilization was higher than before COVID.
12:48Hmm.
12:49It means that the decision to continue HGBT
12:51was very effective.
12:53It was proven during COVID.
12:55Okay.
12:56This is actually an intangible asset of the government.
13:00The HGBT mechanism has been running well.
13:03Yes.
13:04The effectiveness has been studied
13:06and delivered to the Minister of Industry
13:09three times the benefits.
13:12There are three times the benefits.
13:14Yes.
13:15It's related to the activities of the 7 industries
13:18that can be obtained.
13:20As you said,
13:22the price of industrial gas has increased
13:24to US$16.77.
13:25It's quite a lot.
13:27What is the impact?
13:29What is the strategy?
13:30As you mentioned,
13:31the price of gas has increased.
13:33Hmm.
13:34First,
13:35the preparation to reduce production.
13:38Wow. Okay.
13:39Even though the stock is still there,
13:41it's only to fulfill the orders that have been placed.
13:43Yes.
13:44With the new order,
13:46it will be fulfilled at the same price
13:49as the stock that is still there.
13:51Okay.
13:52While passing the time.
13:54Hmm.
13:55This is the critical moment
13:57when the HGBT mechanism
13:59is strongly hoped for by the government.
14:01Yes.
14:02We are waiting for 100 days
14:05for Mr. Prabowo's government
14:07to establish the HGBT.
14:09Maybe if it is analogized
14:11as free lunch,
14:15which is intended
14:17so that our generation,
14:20including the gold generation,
14:22can be good and grow.
14:25Okay.
14:26The same goes for the HGBT.
14:28The energy that competes with this industry
14:32will support economic growth
14:35in 2025
14:37to jump to 8.3% in 2027.
14:41If this year it starts to collapse,
14:44Okay.
14:46then the future will be much more difficult.
14:49Hmm.
14:50Now is the right time
14:52to declare it immediately.
14:55Hmm.
14:56If it really needs time to study,
14:59just a little more,
15:00just keep the statement,
15:02okay, HGBT continues
15:04for 7 industry sectors.
15:06Okay, the recommendation from the minister
15:08will be added later.
15:10Failure is very important.
15:12We have time,
15:14especially when the world situation
15:16is getting more uncertain.
15:18The sooner we decide,
15:21for example, Mr. Prabowo,
15:23immediately decide,
15:24so that manufacturers can move immediately.
15:27Hmm, okay.
15:28Earlier, Mr. Ian also reminded
15:30we have,
15:32we face danger
15:34of de-industrialization
15:36if the HGBT is not established.
15:38Okay.
15:39Mr. Ian,
15:40now the ball is in the government again.
15:43How do you see it?
15:45Will the progress take a long time
15:48or will it be short?
15:50I remember,
15:51even last year,
15:53there was a sign that it would continue.
15:55Then there was a transition to leadership,
15:57then there was a delay.
15:59What do you think?
16:01The future, the chance.
16:03Okay.
16:04Let's first look at our macroeconomic conditions.
16:06If we look at, for example,
16:08Mr. Prabowo's desire
16:10to achieve 8% economic growth.
16:14Okay.
16:15Then we assume that
16:17based on the research I did,
16:19that we will fully recover
16:21in 2030.
16:23In 2027,
16:25it means around 5% or 6%.
16:29So if it's 8%,
16:31we can imagine that
16:33the investment must be good.
16:35Then the manufacturing industry must also be strong.
16:38What does it mean?
16:39It means that,
16:41first, let's forget about the counter-cyclical issue
16:44or, for example, the increase in income.
16:47Okay, there is an increase in income for the government
16:52and so on.
16:53But the most important thing now is
16:54how to recover,
16:56especially the industry in Indonesia.
17:00What will the recovery of the Indonesian industry give?
17:03First, it's the multiplier effect.
17:05It means that the output increases.
17:06If the output increases,
17:07then where does it increase?
17:08Then the job market will also increase.
17:12Now, for example,
17:13this industry is still in economic recovery condition
17:18and then there are still disruptions.
17:21For example, like a certain gas price
17:26and so on,
17:27which in my opinion is a little disturbed
17:30and has not fully recovered,
17:32it will interfere with the recovery of the Indonesian economy
17:37and will also reduce the assumption
17:40to reach an 8% economy.
17:42So, the possibility,
17:43if for example now,
17:45I think it must be as soon as possible,
17:47here the government,
17:48to determine whether this HGBT continues or not,
17:53maybe around this week or the latest,
17:56next week,
17:57to give certainty
17:58so that we can see earlier,
18:00our purchasing manufacturing index has begun to recover.
18:04But here, this recovery is caused by,
18:07for example, the global tension
18:10which has dropped a bit in the Middle East,
18:13then the world demand has risen a bit,
18:16then there are changes in global politics in the United States,
18:21so that this business climate is better.
18:24Don't let this momentum disappear
18:26because there is a delay,
18:29especially the policy to determine,
18:32which gives significance to efficiency
18:37and also the increase in output in the Indonesian manufacturing sector.
18:40Yes, from the price side,
18:416 dollars or 6.5 US dollars per MVTO,
18:44in your opinion, is it ideal enough?
18:47Or is there a potential,
18:48the possibility of being tricked,
18:50then there is a higher number,
18:52for example, rising,
18:53is it possible?
18:55If we compare it to the global price,
18:58it's actually already high.
19:00Just ask Mr. Justinus, it's already high.
19:03Please check it.
19:05So, why?
19:06Because the government wants to compare it to the international price.
19:09Meanwhile, gas is ours,
19:12if it is not used,
19:13how about the implementation of Article 33 of the Basic Law of 1945?
19:20For example, now the price will be the same as the international price,
19:23we are in trouble.
19:24Meanwhile, it should be that
19:26all natural resources are used
19:29or used appropriately for the prosperity of the people.
19:31Whereas if we look at the price,
19:33the same as the international price,
19:36how about it?
19:37Meanwhile, we see our manufacturing industry
19:40is experiencing problems.
19:42We are not competitive.
19:44Then there is also the problem of investment and others.
19:46That's it.
19:47So, what do we need to deal with the current conditions?
19:49We will discuss it again later in the next segment, Mr. Ian.
19:51Mr. Justinus, we will take a short break.
19:53And, Mr. Mirsa, we will be back in the next segment.
20:13You are still watching Market Review.
20:15Let's continue this interesting discussion
20:17with Mr. Justinus Gunawan,
20:18Chairperson of the Global Gas Users' Industry Forum,
20:20and Mr. Yayaan Satyakti,
20:22Economic and Energy Observer at Pajajaran University.
20:25Mr. Justinus, how about the current price?
20:28It is USD 6 per mmbt.
20:31Do you think the potential will still be there?
20:34Because it is still in doubt.
20:36Meanwhile, the industrialists must have given a signal.
20:39At least, they communicated with the government,
20:41especially the Ministry of Industry,
20:43which will be delivered to the Ministry of Education.
20:46We believe that the USD 6.5 per mmbt
20:48can still be absorbed
20:50by the industry
20:52as before.
20:54We already have a pattern.
20:56In this matter, the work pattern and efficiency pattern.
20:59This is what we expect
21:01to be quickly broken by the government.
21:04A slight delay,
21:06like what Mr. Yayaan said,
21:08maybe this week or in the next two weeks,
21:10we may lose momentum.
21:12Meanwhile, the foreign companies are getting ready.
21:15Don't let us get flooded
21:17and we can't even export.
21:19Flooding of foreign products.
21:21This is what we are worried about.
21:25After this work is done,
21:27if the factories are getting ready
21:30to reduce their working hours.
21:32Reducing the working hours
21:34is already making them anxious.
21:37Don't let them stay at home.
21:39Moreover, Ramadan is approaching.
21:41Yes.
21:42Half a year of school.
21:44So, momentum is very important.
21:46We believe that the studies are very mature.
21:48We just need to wait
21:50for the President,
21:52Mr. Perbo,
21:54who is very firm and fast.
21:56Okay.
21:57How long and how strong
21:59if the industry still uses
22:01the commercial gas price, USD 16.77,
22:04the rise is quite extraordinary
22:06compared to the price of HGBT.
22:08How long and how strong
22:10can it last if there is no decision?
22:12In our opinion,
22:14the cycle to last is every half a month.
22:17We review it again quickly.
22:19Because usually,
22:21at the beginning of the year,
22:23the confirmation order is coming.
22:25Okay.
22:26This momentum must be maintained.
22:28Okay.
22:29I also want to say that
22:31the world has become more economical.
22:33So, the tension has started to decrease.
22:36The trade will increase.
22:38If our competition hasn't risen yet,
22:40we will lose.
22:42And also,
22:44we can't hold the import.
22:46Including,
22:48I want to say,
22:50investors must pay attention to investment.
22:52The speed of the government
22:54supporting the industry
22:56is very much
22:58expected by investors.
23:00We really need the FDI.
23:03Okay.
23:04This is expected.
23:06Not only by manufacturers,
23:08but also by investors.
23:10Okay.
23:11Mr. Yayan, what is the solution
23:13that can be conveyed
23:15if you can recommend it?
23:17That's it.
23:18I hope we don't have to wait
23:20for the gas industry,
23:22especially those who have received
23:24the HGBT program.
23:27Maybe if we look at it,
23:30maybe Mr. Prabowo
23:32can execute it
23:34immediately this week.
23:37Or if not,
23:39maybe next Monday or Tuesday.
23:41Maybe the decision is already made.
23:44And at least,
23:45if it's continued,
23:47I think it will be very helpful
23:49especially for the industry.
23:51Because even though
23:53the purchasing manufacturing index
23:57was said to be high,
24:00it actually only shows
24:02on the demand side,
24:04but not on the supply side.
24:06So here I'm worried
24:08if this uncertainty
24:12gets longer,
24:15it will have an impact
24:18like what was mentioned earlier.
24:21So hopefully the government
24:23will immediately make
24:27a quick decision
24:29so that the process,
24:31especially so that this company
24:33can be more certain,
24:35especially to adapt
24:37and also change the strategy
24:39that can increase
24:41economic growth.
24:43Because we are now targeted
24:45at 8%.
24:46So now we have to say
24:486% this year,
24:50maybe 6.5% next year,
24:52then 3rd year 7.5%,
24:54later at the end of Mr. Prabowo's period
24:57at 8%.
24:58This is also to help
25:00to go there.
25:01Okay.
25:02Your last optimism, Mr. Justinus,
25:04how effective
25:06and how strong
25:08this HGBT can increase
25:10the wheel of the Indonesian manufacturing industry
25:13while taking advantage of
25:15our PMI manufacturers
25:16who have already leveled up.
25:17If we talk about momentum,
25:19it means it has to be quick, right?
25:22We are optimistic
25:24that the government will immediately decide
25:26to support the industry
25:28and also provide investment.
25:30Because we see
25:32the government in the next 100 days
25:34has started to roll out
25:36priority programs.
25:38For example, if we analog
25:40free food
25:42has started to roll out
25:44before 100 days to prove
25:46that the new government wheels have been running.
25:48Likewise, with HGBT
25:50which in the previous wheels
25:52had run well, the mechanism
25:54as you said,
25:56can only be confirmed and stated.
25:58This will become
26:00a handle in this week
26:02so that we can all move
26:04quickly.
26:06I wanted to say
26:08the key word is immediate.
26:10We have to act immediately.
26:12Don't be left behind by other parties.
26:14Okay.
26:15Both in manufacturing and investment.
26:17Mr. Justinus, what does your target mean?
26:19If it has been confirmed,
26:21how optimistic and how strong
26:23is the growth of the industry
26:25of the earth gas users
26:27can recover quickly?
26:29I agree with Mr. Eyan.
26:31We can reach 5.5,
26:336.5 next year, I'm sure.
26:35This year we can reach 5.5.
26:37We can reach the target of 5.2 or 5.5.
26:39With 7 more sectors
26:41or will it be expanded?
26:43I remember there is an addition.
26:45First, maybe at the beginning 7 sectors.
26:47Then it will be arranged
26:49with other sectors.
26:51If there is still a need
26:53for a study,
26:55according to our observation,
26:57Mr. Eyan has said
26:59the analysis is very deep.
27:01Everything should be unified.
27:03Okay. We just have to wait
27:05for the policy
27:07to be approved.
27:09Everything can be synergized.
27:11Okay. We just have to wait.
27:13Hopefully it will be quick.
27:15Mr. Justinus, thank you very much
27:17for the information and update
27:19to the audience.
27:21Mr. Eyan, thank you
27:23for the information and analysis
27:25to the audience.
27:27Good luck with your activities.
27:29See you again.
27:31Mr. Eyan, thank you.
27:33Don't go anywhere.
27:35We will come back
27:37with more interesting information
27:39about the resilience of the country
27:41in the midst of a global economic crisis.
27:49www.globalonenessproject.org