MEDI1TV Afrique : Les enjeux de la taxe Carbone avec Zakaria Firano - 01/01/2025
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00:00Ladies and gentlemen, hello and welcome to Focus ECO.
00:13Reducing CO2 emissions, stimulating innovation in renewable energies and improving public finances.
00:19These are the objectives aimed at introducing the carbon tax,
00:25which should be applied in 2026.
00:31VMCEO Capital Global Research analyzes the implications of this tax in a recent study entitled
00:38Carbon tax, what impact for Morocco, how to prepare economic actors for this transition,
00:45what challenges and what impact for the kingdom, answers in this Focus ECO with Mr. Zakaria Shirano.
00:52Mr. Shirano, you are a professor of economics at Rabat University. It's a pleasure to have you with us.
00:57Thank you, it's a pleasure to share.
00:59So when we talk about this carbon tax, what are the issues?
01:03Very well, before talking about the issues, you should know that the European Union has joined
01:08in a drastic reduction logic of CO2 emissions.
01:11It doesn't date from today, it dates from 2005, since the establishment of what we note as
01:16the emission quota exchange system, which is normally a mechanism that allows
01:21the emission of greenhouse gases from all industries and all productions
01:25that are produced within the European Union.
01:27Today, we have a new mechanism that will be put in place and this time,
01:30it's not only for production that is done internally in Europe, but it's in relation to imports.
01:35And so, since Morocco is among the major importers, or the first importer at the European level
01:40from Africa and also from the countries of the region, so automatically it is conserved
01:46by this modification, which has come into force since October 1, 2023
01:52and which will actually come into application, that is to say on the customs level
01:56and on the application level at the border level, from 2020-2025.
02:01And so automatically, Morocco is automatically concerned.
02:06Now, what is it about? It's just a procedure that will be put in place.
02:11It must be clarified, it is not a fiscal measure, it is not only an administrative measure,
02:17it is an environmental measure.
02:19This means that it will try to reduce the inputs that come to the European Union
02:24in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and also in terms of CO2 emissions.
02:29So the logic is very simple, it is a system that will allow to control the production
02:34that comes from other EU-partner countries, such as Morocco,
02:37whether they respect or not the requirements put in place through this mechanism
02:43of carbon leakage to Europe.
02:48And so automatically, there will be certificates that will be put in place
02:51for Moroccan producers, which will be harmonized with what is done today
02:57with the exchange system of quotas, of emissions at the European level
03:01and so automatically it will allow, it will require, if I can say the right term,
03:05it will require the implementation of a new export logic for Moroccan industries,
03:10especially industries that are concerned with greenhouse gas emissions,
03:14such as steel, aluminum, hydrogen, etc.
03:17This means those that have been described by the European law.
03:20And so automatically, as you said, the Moroccan industry will have to put itself in place
03:24in relation to these devices, put, I would say, an updating,
03:27that is to say, update its production standards a little
03:30and also have the possibility of having this certification,
03:33this new order in relation to the European Union.
03:37It will take time, this transition.
03:40Very well, I think the European Union has given enough time.
03:43It was normally promulgated and accepted in October 2023.
03:47And so we had a whole way, that is to say, about more than a year
03:51to be able to prepare these quotas a little and also prepare the documentation
03:55and certificates to be put in place.
03:57And so automatically, I think the ECB had prepared the ground
04:01so that it was in line with the requirements of, I would say, the European Union.
04:07But we must not forget that the price, or I would say the pricing that will be put in place,
04:11will be calibrated on the system of exchange of emission quotas.
04:15That means, I explain very simply,
04:17it is that today Moroccan industries, they can exchange between them
04:20what are called emission quotas.
04:22That is to say, an industry or a company that has a very low emission
04:25can sell its quota to a company that has even higher emissions.
04:28And like that, it will allow a mutualization of this risk
04:31and also it will keep the market share at the level of the European Union.
04:35Well, and it was described in the law in a direct way in 2023.
04:39It is that these quotas, well, these emission leak certificates,
04:43what we call the new certificates that will be put in place in 2025,
04:47they will be, I would say, calibrated on the system of exchange and CO2 emission quotas.
04:53So automatically, Moroccan companies, they can adapt very quickly
04:56because we do not have all the industries that are CO2 emitters.
05:00So automatically, we can put in place, I would say,
05:03an internal exchange system in Morocco that will allow to facilitate
05:06and continue to access in the same way, I would say, to the European system.
05:11Knowing that the study that you mentioned of the Bank of Africa is very important.
05:16It indicates that there will be an impact on exports of around 10%.
05:21Precisely, 65% of Moroccan exports are intended for the European Union market.
05:27But not all are concerned.
05:29Because the companies that are emitters, they must have a certain quota.
05:33And as I said earlier, this quota can be exchanged between all industries.
05:37Morocco, for example, I think that the industry,
05:39the industries in Morocco are not very energy-consuming.
05:42So automatically, they are not very CO2-producing.
05:47Therefore, we will not expect a very high quota
05:53compared to other exporters to the European Union.
05:56So automatically, even if we have this possibility of being CO2 emitters,
06:02beyond the quota that is accepted by the law in force in the European Union,
06:06we could have a system of quotations that will allow to compensate
06:10between the industries that are CO2-producing and those that are not.
06:14Indeed, according to the projections of this study,
06:17we are talking about a decrease in Moroccan exports of 10%,
06:21but which could widen even more once other sectors of activity
06:26will be introduced, or at least will be affected by this tax.
06:29We are talking about the year 2027 and 2028,
06:33where the textile and agri-industrial and agri-food sectors
06:37will also be affected, in addition to iron, steel, aluminum and fertilizers,
06:42which we talked about earlier.
06:44Yes, in a linear way, yes.
06:46If we look at things in a linear way,
06:48without taking into account the energy transition in Morocco,
06:51in a linear way, yes.
06:52Why?
06:53Because the industries that are exporting in Morocco,
06:56the first one is the chemical industry,
07:00that is, the transformations that are linked to the use of what we call chemical products.
07:05And automatically, we are talking about the OECD, in a very direct way.
07:08So it is among the most important exports.
07:11And so it is a consumer of energy and a producer of CO2.
07:14And so, if we take things in a static way,
07:17if we take into account the strategies for energy improvement,
07:20yes, we can go up to 10%.
07:22But I am a little bit, I remain a little bit in a semblance
07:25in relation to these results.
07:26Why?
07:27Because we know very well that the industries today in Morocco
07:29are working on transition strategies towards green energies.
07:33And so automatically, the CO2 brand or the carbon brand in production,
07:39the OECD law with the strategy of $13 billion
07:42that is put in place to converge towards green hydrogen
07:45or other industries,
07:46it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions a little bit.
07:48And so automatically, it will not be able to enter this logic of,
07:51I would say, 10%.
07:53If we also take the introduction of sectors that will be taken into account
07:58with the new nomenclature of the European law,
08:01whether it is textile, etc.,
08:03I think that even in the Moroccan industries
08:05that will have a certain dynamic of propulsion,
08:08for example, textile,
08:09we consider in the next 10 years that there will really be an increase in this sector,
08:12I think it will be with renewable energy.
08:15That is to say, we will not be able to afford to have a production dynamic
08:18that is based solely on fossil fuels that emit CO2.
08:22So automatically, I believe that 10% is a maximum,
08:26it is a maximum estimation,
08:27that is why I said it is a somewhat linear estimation
08:30that takes into account the actuality of the exporting sectors.
08:33But if we introduce these dynamics that are taking place
08:36and that we introduce these energy transitions,
08:382030, 2045 for Morocco,
08:40it could be a bit in alignment with the European Union.
08:43Let's not forget a very important thing,
08:45what I indicated is that the price of customs certificates,
08:48that is to say, the new certificates of carbon leak,
08:51they will be indexed on the prices of the ECQ,
08:53that is to say, on the prices of the quota exchange systems.
08:55And so automatically, as I said,
08:57we could have exchanges with partners in terms of quotas.
09:01That is to say, even if in the short term we will be CO2 emitters,
09:04we could have partners in Europe
09:06who will be able to exchange their quota systems with us
09:09and that will allow a continuous accessibility of our products
09:12with the same cadence.
09:13How are economic actors preparing for these transitions today?
09:17You mentioned the 2030 national strategy,
09:20which is already in place, more or less,
09:23some priorities that have already been detailed.
09:26So how are we preparing today?
09:28How are we preparing?
09:29We feel very, very good.
09:31Well, we are not ready yet
09:32because we are in the process of transitioning to these energies.
09:34It is always fossil fuels,
09:36especially those that are highly carbon-producing,
09:41are dominant.
09:42We are energy importers.
09:44Whether it's gas, whether it's oil, etc.
09:49All these energies, we are importers.
09:51And so automatically,
09:52it's a strategy that's going to take a little longer.
09:54In 10 years, in 15 years,
09:56Morocco will transition to renewable energies.
09:59There are transformations that are being put in place.
10:02I mentioned the OECD earlier.
10:04There are also pharaonic projects
10:06that are being put in place in southern Morocco.
10:09We are talking,
10:10I take Bloomberg figures,
10:11it's not me who's talking.
10:12There are 300 billion dollars
10:14that will land in terms of investment
10:16only to produce renewable energies.
10:18Hydrogen, iron, solar and wind.
10:20And so automatically,
10:21we have a production platform that is very important
10:24and that will not only benefit citizens,
10:27but it will also benefit industries.
10:29Yes, it goes without saying that today,
10:31the cost will be higher
10:32because we are accumulating fixed costs.
10:37So automatically,
10:38the cost of production will not be very reduced.
10:41But over time,
10:42so I'm talking about 10 and 15 years,
10:43we're going to get to what we call
10:44scale economies in these energies,
10:46which will allow the industry to be very competitive.
10:49But in the short term,
10:50I think that the partnership with Europe
10:52is strategic.
10:55And so what will be beneficial in the short term
10:57is these exchanges of quotas with partners
11:00and also internally.
11:01This will facilitate the fluidity of exports
11:03and keep our market share
11:05at the level of the European Union.
11:07When we talk in this report
11:08about this carbon tax,
11:09we talk about it as a crucial step today
11:11for the ecological evolution of Morocco.
11:14Are we in a phase
11:15where we are going to accelerate
11:17the process that has already been initiated,
11:19that has already been put in place?
11:20Yes, of course.
11:21In this sense?
11:22Yes, of course.
11:23We don't have a choice.
11:24It's an obligation today.
11:25We are signatories
11:26of several international conventions.
11:28We have passed COP22.
11:32So we are in this logic
11:33of energy transition,
11:34also to protect the environment
11:36and also to reduce our carbon tax.
11:38And it's not just about sectoral policies.
11:40It also comes from the top of the state.
11:42That is, even King Mohammed VI
11:43indicated that we must go
11:44towards renewable energies.
11:46And if we want our industries
11:47to always be accepted
11:49at the international level,
11:50we have to reduce our carbon tax.
11:53Knowing that Morocco
11:54is not a big emitter.
11:55No, we are not a big emitter.
11:56But we have to respect
11:57the carbon tax a little bit.
11:58We are an exporter country.
12:00Automobile exports
12:01are very important now.
12:03Phosphate exports
12:05are also very important.
12:07Other industries,
12:08such as textiles,
12:09are going to come
12:10and pick up their cruising speed
12:13a little bit,
12:14as it was 20 years ago.
12:16Normally,
12:17this will not be possible
12:19if we can't respect
12:20the carbon tax.
12:21But we have to respect
12:22the carbon tax.
12:23The carbon tax
12:24of the European Union.
12:25We are here.
12:26The carbon tax also
12:27at the level of the United States
12:28and other countries.
12:29So, automatically,
12:30we are obliged
12:31to prepare these transitions.
12:32And we have prepared it
12:33in a very correct way.
12:34Today, we have strategies
12:35that are being implemented.
12:36We have partnerships
12:37that are being implemented.
12:38Let me give an example.
12:39Today, the very important
12:40partnership
12:41is with China.
12:42We all agree
12:43that China
12:44cannot penetrate
12:45neither the American market
12:46nor the European market.
12:47And so,
12:48if it wants to produce
12:49and that these products
12:50land in the European Union
12:51or in the United States,
12:52it has to go through
12:53an acceptable platform.
12:54The only also strategic
12:55platform for China
12:56is Morocco.
12:57There are also
12:58treaties today.
12:59We are talking
13:00about 10 billion dollars
13:01that will be integrated
13:02in the automotive market
13:03only to prepare
13:04these transitions,
13:05either through
13:06the electric car
13:07or also through
13:08the car that will be able
13:09to work in the future
13:10with green hydrogen.
13:11Or also,
13:12and why not,
13:13to benefit from
13:14free trade agreements
13:15to benefit from
13:16free trade agreements
13:17to benefit from
13:18Morocco today
13:19with the United States.
13:20That's the charge sheet.
13:21That's the charge sheet.
13:22Thank you,
13:23Mr. Zecharia Firano.
13:24I would like to remind you
13:25that you are a professor
13:26of economics
13:27at the University of
13:28Mohamed V of Rabat.
13:29It was a pleasure
13:30to have you.
13:31Thank you for
13:32all this information.
13:35This is the end
13:36of Focus and Cons.
13:37We will meet again tomorrow
13:38with a new guest
13:39and a new topic.
13:40Thank you for your loyalty
13:41and a very happy new year.
13:47Focus and Cons