"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program 1st Session Closing, Senin (30/12/2024) dengan Tema Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan."
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00:00What is the impact of the IASG movement?
00:05The information about the IASG movement throughout the year 2024
00:09recorded a new record, tens of times,
00:15but then some analysts said
00:18related to the projection of the IASG movement at the end of the year
00:21this is even tending to be corrected,
00:23if the movement is summarized in a cumulative way,
00:26the growth will be quite negative.
00:29Before we discuss this issue,
00:31we will first present the economic agenda of South Korea.
00:34There is data on the production of South Korea's industry
00:37as a one-on-one in November.
00:39Then, still from South Korea, there is retail sales in South Korea
00:42as a one-on-one in November.
00:44And from Japan, there is the PMI Manufacturing Purchasing Index
00:47in December.
00:48Then from Hong Kong, there is the range of Hong Kong transactions in November.
00:52And this is an interesting agenda for us to appreciate.
00:54You can watch it on the television screen.
01:00For PBI-RI, DPS Dividend Tunai, ADARO,
01:04X Dividend Tunai, KKGI, KUM Dividend Tunai,
01:07Payment of Dividend Tunai through LGDSE and MFEN.
01:10Next, we will look at UFOE,
01:15Payment of PACK, CMNP, SKYB, RUPS.
01:20Next, we will look at the opening of Asian major exchanges this morning.
01:26The opening of Mixed and Nikkei is 0.71% at level 39,993.
01:32STI Singapore is 0.08% at level 3,764.
01:38KOSPI Korea is 0.92% at level 2,427.
01:42And Hang Seng Hong Kong is 0.26% at level 20,143.
01:55And for this morning's discussion,
02:07we have a video conference with Mr. Wawan Hendrayana,
02:10Vice President of InfoVesta.
02:12Good morning, Mr. Wawan.
02:13Good morning.
02:15Thank you for joining us at MarketBus
02:18on the last day of trading at BrusaVec Indonesia today, Mr. Wawan.
02:23You talked about expectations, or maybe you commented on the news package
02:27about the IHS that broke the record dozens of times,
02:29but then in a cumulative way, it looks like it will be projected fully,
02:34so the movement will be negative for the IHS or its growth.
02:39What is your analysis, Mr. Wawan?
02:42Yes, indeed in 2024, we enter this year with full optimism,
02:47because at the beginning of this year,
02:50we see that there will be a political year
02:53where there will be a random election and election,
02:56which is expected to be able to increase the consumption of the people.
02:59Then the biggest expectation is the decrease in the flower population,
03:03which is expected to happen even up to four times at the beginning of the year.
03:07So these two drivers are indeed encouraging the IHS
03:11to break the all-time high several times,
03:14and the peak was in September when it reached 7,900.
03:19At that time, the IHS waited for around 9% year-to-date.
03:24However, as mentioned earlier,
03:26because there are many uncertainties,
03:29both politically and economically, from the global,
03:32then there were also several geopolitical crises,
03:35which of course we didn't expect before.
03:38This encourages foreign investors to leave Indonesia,
03:43and also encourage profit-taking actions.
03:45This is what makes the IHS so far still under pressure at a negative level,
03:49if we count it as year-to-date.
03:51Okay, if we look at the actual progress of the IHS itself,
03:54from the data that we have witnessed until December 19, 2024,
03:59it even broke through to the level of 7,900.
04:03It means that this sentiment is also quite variable, Mr. Wawan.
04:08But if we look,
04:10this is only from December,
04:12from the funds that then came out,
04:14or capital outflow from the Indonesian market,
04:17actually, what is the cause?
04:21And actually, will this pattern continue
04:25until the closing of the trade later in the evening?
04:28Yes, if we talk specifically about December,
04:31what is expected this month is the decline of the flower species,
04:35especially from the FED and also from the BI.
04:39But even though the FED did decrease the flower species,
04:43but in its data, Jerome Powell also stated that
04:47in the future, which is expected to happen next year,
04:50there will be a 4-fold decrease in flower species,
04:52he only saw it happen twice.
04:54This means that this is not in line with the initial expectations of investors.
04:59Because of that incident,
05:01and the possibility that US flower species will still be relatively high next year,
05:06this makes foreign investors who have previously entered Indonesia
05:10again profit-taking, selling to buy back USD.
05:16This also makes the dollar stronger and the rupiah weaker.
05:19These two things that pushed in December,
05:22this is per the closing of the 27th,
05:26we actually have a negative December.
05:29This is the last 20 years,
05:31only happened in 2022.
05:34So, some numbers that hopefully can be pursued today are
05:397,100 to make the EISK positive in December,
05:44which means we can see a decrease.
05:46Then also the closing figure last year, 7,272.
05:50Only if this means that it must increase by 3% today.
05:53This is quite difficult.
05:55Okay, then what are the notes for the past year in 2024
06:01that can be a reference for the potential of the market movement in 2025?
06:07Yes, indeed in Indonesia now,
06:10there is a trend that foreign funds, especially,
06:13are bigger in passive investment.
06:15This means that they will buy based on certain indexes,
06:19such as MSCI or FUJSY, which are outside.
06:22Because of that, the stocks that pick up,
06:25when foreign investors enter,
06:27there is a high possibility that they will be pursued first.
06:30On the contrary, when we look at this month, foreign investors come out,
06:34the big cap investors will also come out.
06:37Of course, the weight of the Indonesian index in the global index
06:42varies according to economic growth,
06:46then also the existing fundamental conditions.
06:48This year we are not too good,
06:51but with the new government,
06:54then with the new economic program,
06:56there will be economic improvement next year,
07:00with existing policies, of course.
07:02It is expected that foreign investors will come back,
07:05if it is like that.
07:06We can look at the S&B cap,
07:08which is actually relatively cheap now,
07:10compared to the previous valuation price.
07:14Okay, it means that you do see the opportunity for the Indonesian capital market in 2025,
07:18this will be quite positive,
07:20the movement will be triggered by economic growth.
07:22But as soon as it enters January 2025,
07:25as far as we know, according to the law itself,
07:28there is something that must be done immediately,
07:30that is the PPN becomes 12%.
07:32How is this actually treated by domestic market players
07:36and also foreign investors?
07:38Is this a concern that is quite serious?
07:43In the short term, yes.
07:45Obviously, the increase in PPN is a negative sentiment,
07:48because at this time,
07:50assumptions and projections made by analysts
07:54will of course project an increase in inflation,
07:57a decrease in purchasing power,
07:59it is also feared that it will slow down the economy.
08:02But of course, there are always two sides,
08:05when the government gets new funding from the increase in PPN,
08:10what will be done with the funds, of course.
08:13If the policy is correct,
08:15and can target sectors that should be supported by the government
08:20to move the economy,
08:22yes, maybe the increase in PPN
08:25may not be too influential,
08:27or even our economy can still grow.
08:30But of course, it takes time
08:33to see whether the policy adopted by the government
08:36is correct and can move the economy.
08:40Meanwhile, in the short term,
08:42I think the negative sentiment is even greater.
08:44Okay, in the short term,
08:46for sectors in the capital market in Indonesia
08:50or in the Indonesian economy,
08:52for the time being, especially for sectors related to consumption,
08:56what is it like, Mr. Owan?
08:58Yes, of course, investors are always moving above expectations,
09:03because the expectation is that PPN will reduce profits,
09:07especially in the retail sector.
09:09Of course, the shares are already limited,
09:13so actually the valuation is also relatively cheap.
09:17If we see that the consumption of the public will tend to stay,
09:22according to this year,
09:24in fact, these emitters are very cheap.
09:27So, investors may be confused,
09:29especially in the long term,
09:31because, after all,
09:33these emitters will not immediately lose,
09:36it may even lead to an increase in sales.
09:39So, we still have to pay attention to the fundamentals,
09:43business prospects, and also the liquidity of each emitter.
09:46That's right, and let's not forget that the end of the year
09:49can also be a harvest for the retail sector or the consumption sector.
09:53Okay, one sector that is usually a reflection
09:58of Indonesia's fundamental improvement in the economy,
10:02when Indonesia's ability to pay debts, etc.,
10:05then improved,
10:07because the input sources from various sectors
10:11are positive again.
10:15What do you think the financial sector is like at the beginning of this year?
10:19Is it true that the valuation of this financial-based sector
10:23is also categorized as cheap,
10:25so this is a moment to enter, Mr. Wawan?
10:29Yes, if we talk about debt,
10:31then no one beats the financial sector in Indonesia.
10:34Banking itself,
10:36in terms of market cap,
10:39may even take 50% of the ISG.
10:42ISG means that this is the largest and most popular sector in Indonesia.
10:48And in terms of debt growth,
10:50big banks, especially big four, are very good.
10:54So, the condition when their price is actually negative this year,
11:00the driver is because of the sale by foreign investors.
11:04If the fundamentals themselves, there is no problem with our banks.
11:08So, at the moment, the valuation is relatively cheap,
11:11so long-term investors can take advantage of it.
11:13Moreover, some government banks are well-known for consistently sharing dividends,
11:19and at the current price, the dividend yield can even beat the deposit for 2025.
11:25So, I'm sure this is actually a good opportunity for long-term investors
11:29to enter the financial sector.
11:32Because in the future, this sector will still be the culmination
11:36of economic growth in Indonesia.
11:39Okay, that's just an investment tip at the beginning of 2025.
11:44Maybe there are other tips that you can share, Mr. Wan,
11:48in this opportunity for investment in 2025.
11:53Yes, next year is indeed a year that can be said,
11:56we still have a lot of uncertainty.
11:58We still understand how the effect of the increase in GDP,
12:03and then also on January 8,
12:06there will be President Trump's inauguration in the United States.
12:09Indeed, the current perception is that
12:13he will increase the price war, trade war with China,
12:17and maybe even with other countries.
12:20So, this must also be expected,
12:22like what policy will be taken.
12:25And of course, the price of commodities is also fluctuating,
12:30because there is a geopolitical crisis.
12:32So, at the beginning of the year, I think there is still a lot of uncertainty,
12:36and it could be volatile.
12:38But for investors,
12:40I recommend doing a cost averaging strategy.
12:43Especially for those who can invest fully in 2025.
12:47So, investors can make purchases on a monthly basis,
12:52to enter stocks that are as good as possible mentally and prospectively,
12:58and the liquidity is also good.
13:00Because if foreign funds enter Indonesia,
13:04it must be liquid funds first.
13:06That's what is intended.
13:10And this is also a recommended Samsung.
13:13Speaking of recommended Samsung,
13:15Mr. Wawan, we will discuss the Samsung you recommended this morning,
13:19and in the next session, we will be back.
13:23Thank you for still joining us.
13:25Before I continue the discussion with Mr. Wawan Hendrayana,
13:28Vice President Infovesta,
13:30we will first look at the Samsung choices this morning from Mr. Wawan.
13:33As you can see on the LofBC screen,
13:36the recommended stocks are
13:45BBCA with a good recommendation,
13:47then BBRI with a good recommendation,
13:49ICBP with a good recommendation,
13:51and also Astra International with a good recommendation.
13:54We will try to discuss one by one.
13:56Mr. Wawan, what do you think about BBCA?
13:58What is interesting about BBCA?
14:00Is the valuation quite cheap,
14:02so that investors can directly enter the last price for BBCA?
14:09For BBCA, with the current price below IDR 10,000,
14:13historically, the book value is relatively cheap.
14:17And again, because BCA is the largest stock market cap in Indonesia at the moment,
14:24so if there is foreign money that will enter,
14:27this BCA stock will definitely be bought for the first time.
14:30Therefore, I recommend buy and hold for BCA
14:34with the target of returning to the level of at least IDR 11,000 next year.
14:40So this is what I recommend for BCA stocks.
14:44As for BBRI itself,
14:46this is a stock that has been corrected quite deeply
14:49since the all-time high this year,
14:51maybe more than 30% correction.
14:53But fundamentally, BBRI is still a profitable bank,
14:58and the profit is even projected above IDR 60 trillion for 2024.
15:05With a level at IDR 4,100 at the moment,
15:09the dividend yield is projected to exceed 7%,
15:12which means even higher than the deposit rate.
15:16So it's interesting for dividend hunters,
15:19to collect BRI stocks at the current level.
15:24Okay, from BBCA and also BBRI,
15:26two stocks from the banking or financial sector,
15:31are recommended to be able to enter.
15:33What is the short-term investment for these two stocks?
15:36Mid-long or what?
15:39Yes, I recommend it can be mid-long,
15:41because in the short term, I think it will definitely enter,
15:45because there are still many uncertainties.
15:47Okay, from BBCA and BBRI, we turn to ICBP.
15:50What is the analysis like, Mr. Wawan?
15:53Yes, for ICBP itself, as a consumer good,
15:55in terms of cash flow, they are quite strong.
15:58And at the beginning of 2025,
16:00we will enter the fasting month, Ramadan.
16:03And this is historically,
16:05they will experience an increase in sales in those months.
16:08Because of that, ICBP can be collected after,
16:13maybe the last month has been corrected by more than 10% for ICBP.
16:16So it's quite interesting to enter the current level.
16:20Okay, ICBP is also mid-long or what?
16:25Yes, at least we can hold on Easter.
16:29Okay, from ICBP we go to Astra International.
16:33For Astra itself, this is a stock that is still profitable,
16:39but unfortunately the growth is not too high.
16:43But in terms of valuation, it's very cheap.
16:45The profit is below one.
16:47And it's a stock that is keen on giving dividends too.
16:50So, with the government giving some incentives,
16:54one of them to hybrid cars,
16:56where one of the biggest sales is in Astra.
16:59Like Innovazenic,
17:02it's one of the top sellers for hybrid cars in Indonesia.
17:06So I see that next year,
17:08the potential for Astra to make a profit is still there.
17:13Even though the car sales trend is down in 2024,
17:17we hope that in 2025 it can be maintained,
17:20or even increased according to the incentives given by the government.
17:24Okay, talking about various sentiments that are quite positive,
17:29related to ME10,
17:32which in production, or maybe operational,
17:37produces its own nickel processing,
17:40related to the electric car ecosystem in Indonesia.
17:44When it moves to hybrid cars,
17:47what do you see the significance for those sectors?
17:53Yes, if we talk about nickel processing,
17:57it's still the most important electric car.
17:59Because it's the most expensive component of an electric car,
18:03which is the battery itself.
18:05But hybrid cars still use batteries too.
18:09So there's still a potential that
18:12when hybrid cars are getting more popular by the people,
18:16the sales of nickel processing can also increase.
18:22Yes, it means that there will be a need,
18:25but it will still be there.
18:29If in terms of trend,
18:31hybrid cars are more popular by the people,
18:34and the government plans to give incentives related to hybrid cars.
18:38Okay, what's also interesting is related to
18:41how a few years ago,
18:43the infrastructure sector, or maybe the BUMN career,
18:45was favored,
18:47because the priority program from the government
18:49was also related to infrastructure development, etc.
18:52But lately, it's not discussed much.
18:55Is this related to the current government program
18:59that is not too heavy on infrastructure development,
19:02so that it has an impact on analysis
19:04or maybe recommendations
19:06for the BUMN career, Mr. Wawan?
19:10Yes, there are three main factors from the BUMN career itself.
19:14Indeed, at the beginning of Mr. Jokowi's government,
19:17infrastructure development was very excited,
19:20so that the BUMN career at that time was very popular with investors.
19:24But after the project was running,
19:28then the funding,
19:30some had to close themselves first,
19:34so that the average BUMN career
19:36has a relatively large debt burden.
19:40Because of that, there were several cases
19:43where the businessmen or the BUMN career itself
19:46experienced several claims.
19:50So this created a negative sentiment.
19:53Then also, if we talk about the focus of the new government,
19:58Mr. Prabowo himself,
20:00it is currently a little shifted from infrastructure,
20:03so that it becomes a negative catalyst for this sector.
20:07So if the positive is,
20:09maybe from the evaluation side,
20:11it's extraordinarily cheap for these businessmen.
20:15And as long as the projects that have been running are able to be completed,
20:21meaning there will be a cash flow,
20:23this should also be a positive sentiment for these BUMN career.
20:28Okay, for those who already have some BUMN career,
20:32what should be done to respond to the projection earlier, Mr. Wawan?
20:38There are two options, of course.
20:40Number one, if you are still confident in the long term,
20:44at least it can be held.
20:46But if you are more focused on short-term trading,
20:52then it can be seen that other sectors are more interesting.
20:56It means that if the funds will be turned to other sectors,
21:02it may be necessary to make a cut loss
21:04to then see other sectors that are more prospective in 2025.
21:09Okay, from the BUMN career sector,
21:12or maybe as an investor, we move to the agricultural commodities sector.
21:17If a few years ago,
21:19which was then affected by the geopolitical conflict,
21:23whether it was the agricultural commodities sector or the energy commodities sector.
21:28If you look at President Donald Trump,
21:33there will be hopes related to the resolution of the geopolitical conflict.
21:37Specifically, we are talking about Russia and Ukraine.
21:41There are gestures that seem to point to an agreement there.
21:46It means that the geopolitical conflict there will stop.
21:51How do you see this,
21:53in terms of the movement of the commodity itself,
21:56for President Trump to be appointed?
22:00Yes, although we do not expect that there will be war,
22:05but in principle,
22:08when there is a geopolitical crisis that increases the price of commodities,
22:12Indonesia is one of the largest producers of commodities.
22:16So we are benefited when the price of commodities is increasing.
22:20Of course, this is still a double-edged sword,
22:23because it means that some commodities that we import a lot,
22:26such as wheat, are also increasing.
22:30So if President Trump can pacify,
22:34I think in the long run it will be positive for Indonesia,
22:38because it means that some commodities that we import a lot
22:42will be able to reduce the burden of the country as well.
22:45But in terms of the price of commodities, especially energy,
22:48there may be a decrease.
22:51But at the moment, if we talk about the profit margin from coal,
22:57for example, it is still very high.
22:59So even though the price of coal is going down,
23:01it doesn't mean that our coal emissions will be at a loss.
23:06Especially if it turns out that the decrease in coal prices
23:09is accompanied by demand,
23:13because it is cheaper and more willing to be bought.
23:15It means that for the coal energy commodities sector,
23:18it is still interesting to be respected like that,
23:20in the middle of the sentiment of geopolitics itself.
23:22Okay, let's move on to a little analysis of the movement of ISG
23:25at the opening of session 1 today.
23:28Today, Mr. Wawan opened at level 7036.571,
23:33but then continued to record a decrease or weakening movement,
23:37which is 0.32% at level 7013.878.
23:44How do you see the movement analysis of ISG today, Mr. Wawan?
23:51For today, ISG is still quite loose.
23:56We also see that some of the cap companies are also experiencing a correction,
24:00because maybe many traders are still on vacation,
24:05so the volume of transactions this morning is still not too big,
24:08until 9.10am, it hasn't reached 1 trillion yet.
24:13It means that there is still potential for ISG to strengthen.
24:18We really hope that at least ISG can be closed above 7114,
24:24and hopefully the support at 7000 will not be crossed today.
24:29But for the investors, for those who can long-term,
24:33when some of these cap companies are being corrected,
24:36it can be used as a weakness.
24:38Okay, those are some of the analysis that Mr. Wawan has delivered.
24:42Hopefully it can be a reference,
24:44related to the investment strategy that will be taken by the market players today.
24:48But then for the decision to invest,
24:50back to you, viewers of IDX channel.
24:52Mr. Wawan, thank you for joining us.
24:54Good luck to you.
24:56Happy New Year, Mr. Wawan.
24:58Good luck to all of us.
24:59Happy New Year, always healthy.