"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (27/12/2024) dengan Tema Alasan di Balik Pelemahan Pasar Saham Jelang Akhir Tahun"
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00:00Thank you for joining us.
00:07We will now take a look at the economic agenda of the United States.
00:11There is trade.
00:12From Spain, there is retail sales data.
00:15From Japan, there is the consumer price index.
00:17From India, there is the deficit reserve.
00:19From Thailand, there is trade data.
00:22From the Philippines, there is data on the budget.
00:26We will now move on to the emittance agenda, which is interesting for us to discuss.
00:29At the end of the year, the SWD will host the RUPS.
00:34The same will be done by ISH, Nelly, and East,
00:38which is the Payment of Interim Cash Dividends.
00:40PBRI, Ex-Dividend Tunai Interim, and TEPIK, Payment of Interim Cash Dividends.
00:48Next, there is GMFE, HMETD,
00:52KUM Dividend Tunai, RDTX, AMAR, Ex-Dividend Tunai,
00:57Sumatera Toa Darul, KUM Dividend Tunai Interim, and KEJU, KUM Saham Bonus.
01:03Next, we will take a look at the main ASEAN exchanges this morning.
01:07For example, for Nikkei, 0.77% at level 39,872.
01:13For Singapore, 0.44% at level 3,777.
01:18And for Korea, 0.86% at level 4.
01:35We will talk about the sectors that have attracted a lot of attention from investors.
01:41We will talk about the five sectors with the weakest performance since early 2024.
01:47And the sectors of the past year, such as year-to-date, transportation, and technology,
01:52have weakened by 20%.
01:54Technology has weakened by 10%.
01:58As you can see on the television screen,
02:00then for industrial, it has weakened by 7%.
02:04Infrastructure has weakened by 7%.
02:05And steel has weakened by 5%.
02:10Meanwhile, we will move on to data on the five sectors
02:13with the strongest or best performance throughout 2024,
02:18such as energy,
02:20which has strengthened by 26%,
02:22real estate and health,
02:24which has strengthened by 5%,
02:26and then health by 3.5%.
02:28Non-primary consumer goods,
02:30in terms of cumulative weakness,
02:32but then showed good performance.
02:36Meanwhile, for consumer goods,
02:38in terms of cumulative weakness, 2%.
02:44And to discuss this morning,
02:46we have contacted Mr. Praska Putrantio,
02:48CEO of Advisor.id.
02:50Good morning, Mr. Praska.
02:52Yes, good morning, Mr. Wiki.
02:54Thank you for joining us,
02:56even though the atmosphere is already in the mood for vacation,
02:58but the market is still not on vacation, right, Mr. Praska?
03:00Yes.
03:01Okay, good.
03:02If we talk about the sectors with the weakest performance throughout 2024,
03:10among them is transportation,
03:12then also technology,
03:14which recorded a weakness of 20% for technology,
03:18industrialization 10%,
03:20and also several other sectors,
03:22including infrastructure,
03:24real estate.
03:26If you look at the performance in these sectors,
03:28what is it like, Mr. Praska?
03:30Yes, okay.
03:32So if I'm here,
03:34Samsung from the five sectors,
03:37especially the logistics transportation sector,
03:41then followed by technology,
03:43the last two sectors,
03:45we talked about industrialization,
03:47and also real estate,
03:49in terms of cumulative weakness,
03:51recorded up to 24% yesterday.
03:53So indeed, in terms of logistics transportation,
03:55it is more limited by the collection of shares.
04:00Indeed, the category,
04:02if I speak here,
04:05with capitalization,
04:06small to mid caps,
04:08so even the majority is quite small,
04:10the shares,
04:12and mostly supported by the collection of shares,
04:16among them,
04:18like Indomobil Merdija Sayang,
04:20if we talk about capitalization,
04:22above 1 trillion,
04:24then followed by CMPP,
04:26then also followed by shares from Pura, GTRA,
04:32and all kinds of shares,
04:34which indeed the category,
04:36if we talk about it,
04:38is quite a mid-sized category,
04:40like even Merdija Indonesia,
04:42also experienced a significant correction,
04:44up to more than 20%,
04:46because of the minus along the year-to-date.
04:48And indeed, if we look at it,
04:50the reason is indeed because of the pressure
04:52from their financial technology
04:54throughout this year-to-date condition,
04:56which not only actually happens
04:58in the logistics transportation sector,
05:01but also in other sectors,
05:03such as commodity enterprises,
05:05as well as infrastructure enterprises,
05:07also experienced a decrease,
05:09but in the logistics transportation sector,
05:11it is the most pressing,
05:13because it is related to the utility
05:15used by the public,
05:17which is also decreasing
05:19in the middle of economic slowdown,
05:21and also faced with an increase
05:23in tariffs,
05:25and also the increase in transportation costs,
05:27so it may also decrease
05:29from the ME10 side,
05:31for the long-term energy
05:33year-to-date,
05:35up to the third quarter.
05:37For example, if we talk about Garuda Indonesia,
05:39which also experienced a significant
05:41correction,
05:43there was a minus of 14% here,
05:45due to a decrease in income delay,
05:47and also a decrease
05:49in the growth of clean and operational
05:51labor, and also for IMJS,
05:53if I look here,
05:55also experienced
05:57an energy delay
05:59throughout the year-to-date,
06:01which occurred in the logistics
06:03transportation sector,
06:05and also on the second side,
06:07from the technology side.
06:09This technology, we are talking about,
06:11is not out of the pressure on
06:13such goods as Buka,
06:15then Kutu, which has also been
06:17corrected throughout
06:19this year, even though
06:21in terms of the format for Kutu,
06:23the main improvement,
06:25but the pressure throughout the year-to-date,
06:27especially for Buka, up to 44%
06:29year-to-date, and also MTEK,
06:31even though MTEK has improved, but we are talking about cumulative
06:33year-to-date, this is still a weakness,
06:35because the energy has just been improved
06:37for about one or two quarters
06:39last, but as long as
06:41if I look at
06:43year-to-date, this is still not
06:45showing enough
06:47significance, only about one or
06:49two quarters last, more or less like that
06:51Mr. Wiki. Okay, if we look at
06:53some of the sectors that we have
06:55mentioned earlier, related to
06:57sectors that are
06:59weakening throughout
07:012024, and in your opinion,
07:03there are also some indicators that have been
07:05mentioned, meaning that if
07:07projected in 2025,
07:09are the sectors
07:11that we discussed earlier
07:13will show rebound or
07:15perhaps a more positive performance
07:17throughout 2024?
07:19Mr. Raskah?
07:21Yes, if I look at it,
07:23it depends on the macroeconomic
07:25conditions, if the external pressure
07:27is still quite high, and uncertainty
07:29in the country, especially
07:31in the issue of delay
07:33in demand
07:35due to the
07:37PPNK factor, and also
07:39other factors, where
07:41inflation also causes continuous delays,
07:43even though the
07:45flow has decreased, but we see
07:47a problem here in terms of purchasing power, in terms of
07:49and so on, if it's still like this,
07:51of course,
07:53those sectors are still unable
07:55to show their rebound in
07:57the next year, at least until
07:59the first semester, unless
08:01there is an improvement
08:03from our economic conditions,
08:05especially from
08:07the manufacturing side, the manufacturing
08:09improves, the consumer confidence improves,
08:11of course, maybe this will also affect
08:13the sector, at least
08:15the logistics transportation sector,
08:17then we will talk about
08:19technology, maybe later,
08:21like that. In other words, with
08:23the projection, this will be quite
08:25challenging for the movement of
08:27IISG in the future,
08:29or at least maybe what is projected
08:31at the end of this year?
08:33For the short term, especially at the end of the year,
08:35the movement of IISG is still
08:37far from the expectation of windowed racing,
08:39because we talk about the data throughout
08:41the year itself, sorry, I mean the monthly rate is
08:43still minus 0.68,
08:45even throughout the year, IISG is still
08:47minus, right? Still minus 2.84%,
08:51held at level 7000, so to come back
08:53to create windowed racing,
08:55it must be above 7100,
08:57this is still quite a challenge,
08:59there are only two days left today
09:01and also three days left tomorrow, roughly like that.
09:03Okay, Bren and also Goto,
09:05become the two main drivers of
09:07the movement of IISG, so that IISG
09:09at the closing of trade on Tuesday
09:11reached level 7065,
09:13which is 30.69 points,
09:15or 0.43%
09:17like that, okay.
09:19For the sectors that we have discussed earlier,
09:21for the ones that show
09:23negative performance, it means
09:25things that can then be used
09:27related to those sectors,
09:29only short-term,
09:31use the current volatility
09:33to be able to do daily trading,
09:35or potentially long-term,
09:37for example, you might
09:39see positive performance
09:41and this can also be used
09:43in a gap, Mr. Raska.
09:45Yes, if I look at it,
09:47actually, what was said earlier
09:49is more
09:51speculative,
09:53so it's just short-term,
09:55because the price is the same as the correction,
09:57so investors can take advantage of
09:59market hunting to find new spot levels,
10:01but still for a longer period of time,
10:03pay attention,
10:05especially
10:07prospects from the industry sector,
10:09if we talk about,
10:11for example, transportation,
10:13then to stock,
10:15the stock is also quite diversified,
10:17not just
10:19low-gum, but
10:21all kinds of things like that,
10:23so there are many things
10:25that investors need to pay attention to,
10:27if they want to hold it for a longer period of time,
10:29but it's quite short-term,
10:31in my opinion, investors can do it more
10:33in a speculative way, in the position of
10:35interesting support to be reflected in the spot level.
10:37The five weakest sectors and industries
10:39for the year 2024,
10:41we shifted to the five strongest sectors and industries
10:43since the beginning of the year
10:452024,
10:47including the energy sector,
10:49which is strong
10:51so far, 26%,
10:53then property and real estate,
10:555%, health, 3.5%, consumer
10:57and non-primary goods,
10:59then also consumer goods,
11:01although then in terms of cumulative data,
11:03or data that can be seen
11:05earlier in the graph,
11:07it was minus 2%, but
11:09maybe in terms of cumulative, it shows a good job.
11:11If we look from these sectors,
11:13what is it like, what
11:15then causes these sectors
11:17to look quite favorable
11:19in the eyes of investors?
11:21Yes, if we
11:23take an example from
11:25the goods sector,
11:27I mean the biggest energy,
11:29as you can see, energy is then supplied by
11:31property and real estate,
11:33property and real estate,
11:35and finally health.
11:37For the energy sector itself,
11:39many are supported by stocks,
11:41first from PTRO, large capitalization.
11:43Of course, there are also large capitalization
11:45investors,
11:47such as PTRO, then
11:49also Adaro. Adaro's strength
11:51is also quite impressive in my opinion,
11:53because here,
11:55Adaro is also positive,
11:57but the biggest strength is PTRO,
11:59then followed by Pegas,
12:01and also Delta Dunia Makmur or DOIT.
12:03So, indeed, optimism
12:05in the energy sector, especially
12:07energy-based MIGAS,
12:09in my opinion, is still enough.
12:11And coal, although coal here
12:13is a bit of a correction
12:15in the third or fourth quarter,
12:17slightly different from the usual
12:19expectations at the end of the year,
12:21now it's a bit better,
12:23but with MIGAS energy, it's still quite optimistic,
12:25so it supports
12:27Samsung's strength
12:29in energy,
12:31supported by the MIGAS sector.
12:33Then, if we talk about property,
12:35the main supporter is
12:37coal, because
12:39from others, the property is quite
12:41down, we talk about
12:43Bundesar Punggamai,
12:45Conceputra, which we talk about
12:47entering the 400s as an example,
12:49all of them experienced a correction
12:51throughout the year, but for
12:53PAN and KIJA, here,
12:55in my opinion, the market cap
12:57is still big, if KIJA is still
12:59below others,
13:01but KIJA here is also
13:03strong in the second semester,
13:05it has increased significantly,
13:07up to 51%, but
13:09for PANI,
13:11with my PIC project,
13:13this
13:15makes the PANI share fly quite high,
13:17with a return of up to 230%,
13:19especially with the capitalization
13:21reaching around 27
13:23trillion,
13:25which makes the property sector
13:27become a
13:29wreck, so
13:31the strengthening of certain shares
13:33makes the sectors
13:35experience significant strengthening.
13:37Lastly, we also talk about health,
13:39health here also strengthens
13:41around 3.68%, and this is
13:43raised by an increase
13:45from a fairly large capitalization
13:47share, namely SRAJ and SILO.
13:49So, SRAJ and SILO
13:51still increased around
13:53683% for SRAJ,
13:55as well as Raya Nubra
13:57Jaya, and also SILO,
13:59SILO International, this is up
14:01around 38%, so the two emitters
14:03are quite a positive contribution
14:05to the
14:07health sector.
14:09In terms of
14:11performance,
14:13actually, they are
14:15slow, but here maybe more
14:17to the investor's optimism,
14:19so it makes performance
14:21significant, especially in SRAJ,
14:23which is also in-line to improve
14:25performance, followed by a significant increase
14:27in the price of the stock.
14:29What's interesting is that the health sector
14:31has shown a year-to-date performance,
14:33quite positive,
14:35because some time ago, during the pandemic,
14:37a lot of people said that the performance of the health sector
14:39will not be too performant, but
14:41as soon as it enters 2024, so far
14:43it's moving positively.
14:45So, what are the recommendations for
14:47those sectors, plus later we will discuss
14:49the next agenda and
14:51Professor, stay with us, we'll be right back.