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00:00Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House, expert on Middle East matters there.
00:04Yossi, thanks as always for joining us here in France 24.
00:07We appreciate your time.
00:08Give us your sense of where we're at.
00:11I see. Good evening.
00:14I think it was obvious for Netanyahu that he had to make a decision
00:21either on the Lebanese side or the Palestinian or the Gaza side.
00:26And the decision was to reach a ceasefire deal in Lebanon and with Hezbollah.
00:35In a way, it's more straightforward because it's going back to 2006
00:42and trying to implement Resolution 1701, which also implies
00:49a resolution that implementation of Resolution 1559.
00:54In other words, at the end of the day, it creates a buffer zone between
00:59between Hezbollah, not Lebanon, but Hezbollah and Israel,
01:03which will be filled by by UNIFIL and Lebanese, are we?
01:07As Angela says earlier, the question here is about compliance,
01:11the issues where there is enforcement.
01:14That's why there is so much suspicion in Israel,
01:18especially the people of the north, that says, are we going to be safe?
01:22Is the Radwan Force, which is the elite unit of Hezbollah,
01:27is going to go back and dig tunnels as it did before?
01:31And can the 60,000 people go back safely to live in their homes?
01:37Do you think for Netanyahu, this is a possible make or break situation?
01:43It's no problem for him.
01:44And to his speech, and of course, Netanyahu says whatever suits him
01:50at the moment, and he changes his tune, depends on the circumstances.
01:55But he managed to bring with him the cabinet.
01:58The question, if there is any trade off with the far right
02:01vis-a-vis what happens in Gaza,
02:06the far right will say this is not enough, continue the war.
02:09But to be fair to Netanyahu, at a certain point, we always argue
02:13a war must end with some political arrangement.
02:17He needs also to calculate, and it was mentioned just now,
02:22the transition between Biden and Trump.
02:25If Netanyahu at this point, for instance, says no to President Biden,
02:30there was a possibility that it was going to the Security Council.
02:35And at this point, as happened with past administrations in transition,
02:40the United States would not have vetoed it as the way it did in the past.
02:44And this, even Trump, would not have changed.
02:47And this puts Netanyahu in a very tough situation.
02:50The situation regarding Iran was something, Yossi, that Netanyahu was clear on.
02:55It now allows him to, Israel, to deal with the Iran threat.
03:00Tell us more about that.
03:04Netanyahu has seen for many years, for more than two decades,
03:08to emphasize the need to stop Iranian nuclear development.
03:14At the end of the day, no one caused more damage in this sense than Netanyahu himself
03:18by putting pressure on Trump.
03:21And he's doing his first term to withdraw from the JCPOA.
03:25But things obviously changed over the last few months.
03:29One, in the sense of the axis of resistance, has been weakened
03:33as a result of the war.
03:35And also what Netanyahu said in his speech,
03:39over-exaggerating it by quite a bit,
03:42that Israel also showed military capabilities to hurt Iran
03:46and to reduce its military capability, its ability to build missiles,
03:52and also reducing its air defense systems.
03:55But I doubt if this means that what he implied,
04:00that he will now engage in a war with Iran.
04:05I don't think the United States is interested in this.
04:08And I don't think Israel is in a position to do that.
04:10Yossi, bear with me, I'm bringing Angela Diffley back in.
04:13And please, both of you, let everybody know what you're thinking
04:18as this discussion develops.
04:20I'm wondering, Angela and Yossi, what will Biden and Macron make of the fact
04:25that this has been broken by Netanyahu?
04:27Perhaps that was something that was already preordained.
04:30We don't know.
04:31But clearly, Biden and Macron have had a hand on this whole development.
04:35Yeah, and the Israelis were really not keen on the French being involved
04:40in this U.S.-led committee to oversee the agreement, if it is reached.
04:50You know, France has a longstanding relationship with Lebanon.
04:56A lot of business interests in the past.
04:57There has always been a strong rapport between the two countries.
05:01And the Lebanese specifically requested that France be part of that force.
05:06And the Israelis resisted that, you know.
05:09Netanyahu and Macron have had quite a few public spats in recent weeks.
05:16You know, I don't know.
05:18Over arms, for instance.
05:20Indeed. And it does seem Macron, certainly at the very beginning, was absolutely
05:26we stand by Israel on October the 7th.
05:29But afterwards, his position has often been quite difficult to decipher.
05:35I don't know what the Israelis make of Macron's stand on the whole.
05:40That's what that's a yossi yossi.
05:42Can you give us anything on the Israeli viewpoint of Macron's stand on the conflict?
05:47I mean, clearly, Macron didn't endear himself to Benjamin Netanyahu
05:50when he spoke about possibly cutting the supply of French arms to Israel
05:54because of the scale of the death in Gaza.
05:57Yes, of course.
05:59In Israel's view, Netanyahu's view, it's always a zero sum game.
06:04Netanyahu won't take any criticism of the way that Israel conducts the war.
06:09So if there is suggestion to limit arms,
06:13immediately whoever suggests this is becoming an enemy of the state,
06:18let alone bear in mind that actually France announced that it recognized
06:24the decision by, and will respect, the decision by the ICC of the arrest warrant.
06:30So from Netanyahu's personal point of view, it makes Macron more often
06:35almost a personal enemy.
06:37He doesn't want to give France any credit in that.
06:40But France is an important actor when it comes to Lebanon.
06:44It will be an important actor when it comes to UNIFIL
06:48and the influence of the Lebanese army.
06:50As a result, Israel needs, at least on this issue,
06:54to work closely with France.
06:56But at this point, as Netanyahu usually, he was always towards the United States
07:01and he looks mainly how it's going to affect relations with the United States.
07:06And Biden is supposed to give, I think, any minute, a press conference
07:11and take credit for actually reaching this far.
07:15We are standing by, Yossi, for that very event.
07:19And when it happens, we'll be taking it live.
07:21First of all, Yossi, can I thank you for taking part, as always,
07:24here in France 24.
07:25We appreciate the clarity you bring to what is a very complex situation.
07:29Yossi Mekkelberg from Chatham House,
07:31specialist on the Middle East, North Africa program there.
07:34And of course, someone we call on often for his insight on the Middle East.
07:38Yossi, thank you very much indeed.