Severe weather warning in place for past of the east beginning November 15, 2024.
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00:00Heat, strong winds and elevated fire dangers across southern and southeast Australia over
00:04the next few days, with a burst of wet, stormy weather to follow.
00:08Let's get into some of the details now.
00:11We'll start by taking a look at our forecast maximum temperatures over the next few days,
00:15coupled with the winds that we're forecasting as well.
00:18We can see a low pressure trough through Western Australia, this blue dashed line here, which
00:22is going to drive weather eastwards across the country over the next few days, helped
00:26along the way by this cold front sitting to the south of the Great Australian Bight.
00:30Now through the course of today, we are expecting very hot and windy weather ahead of that trough.
00:35Temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s, with strong and gusty conditions, particularly
00:40through inland Western Australia.
00:42As we go into tomorrow and this system starts to shift eastwards, that hot, windy weather
00:46will push into South Australia and the southeastern states.
00:51That pattern will continue as we go into Sunday, with winds really ramping up through the southeast
00:56in particular.
00:57In fact, overnight Saturday into Sunday, we may see locally damaging winds about the Victorian
01:02Alpine areas and southeast New South Wales Alpine areas as well.
01:06Severe weather warnings may be issued for that risk, so keep an eye out in the next
01:1024 hours or so for that one.
01:12Otherwise, it will be another warm and windy day, but we'll start to see those hot conditions
01:16gradually contracting to northern New South Wales and Queensland.
01:20While in the wake of this trough system, much milder and more settled weather will start
01:25to develop.
01:27Now where we have hot and windy weather, we do see elevated fire dangers.
01:31Even for today, we are seeing high fire dangers across many parts of Australia, particularly
01:36through southern parts of Western Australia, but it's tomorrow when that front starts to
01:40move into South Australia that we'll see the fire dangers peaking.
01:43We've got extreme fire dangers forecast for the Channel Country of Queensland, northwest
01:48Victoria and much of southern parts of South Australia.
01:52Those areas can expect to see fire weather warnings for tomorrow, with possible fire
01:56bans, total fire bans as well.
01:59Now these areas are most likely to see the most extreme conditions for fire behaviour,
02:04which may impact fires that are already ongoing, or new fires that start over the next couple
02:08of days.
02:10As we go into Sunday, we are going to see some easing in conditions through the south,
02:15but extreme fire dangers will continue about the northwest slopes and plains of New South
02:18Wales and the Channel Country of Queensland.
02:22Moving on to our thunderstorm risk now.
02:24Today, storms are possible across much of Australia in a horseshoe pattern from the
02:29west, north and then back into the east.
02:32Severe storms are once again possible across inland Western Australia and through parts
02:37of central and southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.
02:40Most notably today though, Brisbane is only expecting non-severe storms, with that severe
02:45storm risk more inland.
02:47In those eastern areas we could see damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall or large hail with
02:51severe storms today, but in the west the risk is mainly focused around damaging wind gusts.
02:58For tomorrow, our storm areas look fairly similar, but we do see them extending further
03:02south into South Australia and inland New South Wales.
03:05Now most notably in those two areas we may see some more dry thunderstorms, so producing
03:10very little rainfall and potentially posing a further risk to fire weather behaviour.
03:16We do have severe storms at risk once again across inland Western Australia and parts
03:20of Queensland.
03:21We're not really going to see widespread rainfall starting to occur until around Sunday,
03:26so let's jump forward to Sunday morning to take a quick look at that to finish off with.
03:31Now by Sunday morning our cold front and trough system are moving into the eastern states.
03:36They will start to tap into significant moisture and draw it down from the north, giving fuel
03:41to any showers and storms that develop.
03:43We may see widespread moderate to locally heavy falls through northeast Victoria and
03:47southeast New South Wales through this period, but the exact location of the heavy falls
03:52is dependent on how quickly this front moves and where the storms develop through the course
03:57of Sunday.
03:59One way or the other we will see conditions contracting away to the north into Monday
04:02with more settled weather pushing into the southeast.
04:06From heat to fire dangers to thunderstorms, there are a lot of hazards on the way over
04:10the next few days.
04:12You can find the details via the Bureau's website, the BOM Weather app or via our social
04:15media.
04:16Stay safe and we'll catch you in the next update.