Extreme temperatures expected for much of the east.
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00:00It's going to be a wet week ahead for much of Australia, with rain and storms expected
00:04across every state and territory.
00:06Let's start off first with a look at how much rainfall we're expecting through the
00:09week.
00:10And this map here shows the forecast total rainfall across the country, starting off
00:13on Monday morning.
00:14We can see heading into Tuesday, rainfall totals building through northern Australia
00:18as well as the southeast of the country.
00:20By Wednesday, we could see accumulated rainfall exceed 50mm for parts of Victoria and the
00:25northern Territory.
00:26From Thursday and Friday, that's when we start to see rainfall totals building through
00:30New South Wales and southern Queensland.
00:32This will help to ease some of those heatwave conditions through there.
00:35And by Friday night, we could see large parts of the country approach or even exceed the
00:39average monthly rainfall for November.
00:42You will notice though that the rainfall distribution is not uniform.
00:45We do have areas of low rainfall next to areas of higher rainfall, and that's because rainfall
00:49is expected to come broadly from showers and thunderstorms, and so some of those heavier
00:53totals will depend on where those thunderstorms do move and then develop.
00:57But to get a better sense of where we're expecting thunderstorms over the next few
01:00days, we can have a look at the Thunderstorm Outlook map.
01:03First starting with Tuesday, areas in green all the way from southern Victoria and up
01:07to the top end in Kimberley show where thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.
01:11But these areas in yellow show where severe thunderstorms are possible, bringing heavy
01:15rainfall, damaging winds and large hail.
01:17And they lie through central parts of Australia, South Australia, Victoria and southern parts
01:21of New South Wales.
01:23On Wednesday, the thunderstorm risk shifts towards east.
01:27We still see the risk of severe thunderstorms for much of central Australia, but we also
01:30see thunderstorms possible for Tasmania, and this red area here through northeastern parts
01:34of Victoria is where we could see severe thunderstorms become likely, again with the risk of damaging
01:40winds, large hail and heavy rainfall.
01:43So as well as the thunderstorm risk, there is also the possibility of flooding through
01:46the week, especially as rainfall totals start to build.
01:49At the moment we do have flood warnings coming through southern Queensland, but as rainfall
01:52totals grow heading into Friday and the weekend, we could see further flood watches and warnings
01:57being issued, and this situation is being monitored daily.
02:00So do keep an eye on the latest information for your area, especially if it has been quite
02:04wet recently.
02:05So what has been driving, and what will drive, these consecutive days of heavy rainfall across
02:10the country?
02:11Well we can have a look at what's happening in the oceans, and in particular the sea surface
02:14temperatures across the country.
02:16These areas in yellow shading and into the orange show where sea surface temperatures
02:20are in excess of 20, even approaching 30 degrees.
02:23But it's across the far northwest of the country where sea surface temperatures are
02:27exceeding 30 degrees, even pushing up towards 32 degrees off the coast of the Kimberley.
02:32As sea surface temperatures rise, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere or moisture
02:36increases, and this is fuel for thunderstorms.
02:39And so another measure of this is precipitable water.
02:42This shows the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, and the darker colours indicating
02:46where there is a risk of heavier rainfall.
02:48We see those dark shades across much of the country, but as we start to zoom out, and
02:52over the next few days, we start to see these weather systems push across southern Australia.
02:56They drag that moisture down across the southeast of the country, and there is also quite a
03:00bit of water vapour coming across the Pacific Ocean.
03:04And so over the next week, with the risk of severe thunderstorms and flooding, do keep
03:07up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on our website and app, follow us on our socials,
03:13and as always, please stay safe.