MEDI1TV Afrique : MEDI1 MORNING - 05/11/2024
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00:00News from the Global News
00:16Hello everyone, I am delighted to see you again in this new edition of the Global News.
00:21Here are the headlines.
00:22The election day
00:25It is the day of the presidential election in the United States on Tuesday, November 5,
00:31in which Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be elected.
00:34America faces a historic choice.
00:42And still in the United States, never the outcome of a presidential duel
00:46had also been unpredictable.
00:49No poll manages to divide Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
00:52out of 244 million voters, nearly 80 million Americans in Kamala Harris have already voted in advance.
01:03In the Middle East, the Ministry of Health of Gaza accused the Israeli army on Monday
01:07of bombing and destroying the hospital, the only one still in operation,
01:11leaving many injured by medical personnel.
01:15And it is not sure.
01:22Right away, place to our special file of presidential elections in the United States.
01:40It is the day of the presidential election in the United States.
01:43This could be one of the tightest elections in history.
01:49The Democratic candidate on Monday night in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania,
01:55a few hours before the opening of the polling stations.
01:58On the one hand, the vice president who in July replaced Joe Biden,
02:02Kamala Harris, 60 years old, can become this Tuesday the first woman to lead
02:06the largest economic and military power on the planet.
02:09On the other, former President Donald Trump, 78 years old,
02:14the author of a spectacular political comeback after leaving the White House in 2021
02:20in a chaotic context.
02:22Two theatrical shots in two attempts to assassinate Donald Trump.
02:29This race to the White House was also marked by all the overhauls in a fractured country.
02:37Each of the two rivals is confident in his victory.
02:41And Pennsylvania only has a few tens of thousands of votes in this so-called pivotal state.
02:47Will we win election?
02:51Once the polling stations are closed this Tuesday,
02:54the countdown will begin in all of the United States.
02:58A process that differs from one state to another,
03:01and which could take days, especially in the event of litigation and legal recourse
03:05in a country as extensive as the United States.
03:08With six time zones, the closing of polling stations will extend from 23 hours GMT on Tuesday
03:15in Indiana and Kentucky to 6 hours GMT on Wednesday
03:20for the most western territory in Alaska.
03:24More than 80 million Americans have already voted in a way anticipated by correspondence
03:29or at polling stations.
03:31States cannot take the lead in deploying these ballots,
03:37but they have for the most part authorized the voters to prepare them.
03:42A handful in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two key states,
03:46however, do not allow this preparation before the day of the vote.
03:50The result is then certified by the voters of the polling stations
03:54who are elected or appointed according to the legislation
03:57and transmitted to the authorities of the county and the state
04:00as well as to local officials of the political parties.
04:04And in the event of a close vote, several recounts will be necessary.
04:14The outcome of a presidential duel had never been so unpredictable.
04:20No poll manages to divide Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
04:24Out of 244 million voters, nearly 80 million Americans in Kamala Harris have already voted
04:31in a way anticipated by the explanations with a fixed pattern.
04:39Harris or Trump, the suspense is at its peak.
04:42These are the last crucial hours of a historic campaign for the White House.
04:47The two candidates face each other on Monday in the last electoral meeting
04:51on the eve of a vote on the major issues for the United States and the rest of the world.
04:56This US presidential election sees two radically opposite personalities.
05:01On the one hand, the current Democratic Vice President,
05:04who in July replaced President Joe Biden.
05:07At the height of her 60 years, Kamala Harris can become, on Tuesday,
05:10the first woman to lead the first economic and military power on the planet.
05:17Two days until we decide the fate of our nation.
05:39I see a nation determined to turn the page on hatred and division
05:44and chart a new way forward.
05:46Faced with her, the former Republican President Donald Trump,
05:50author of a spectacular political comeback after leaving the White House in 2021
05:55in a chaotic context.
05:57The general septuagint escaped two procedures of dismissal and was sentenced to justice.
06:05But all I can say is, on Tuesday,
06:10all I can say is, on Tuesday,
06:12we just have to go and vote.
06:14We're going to put an end to all this.
06:16And it will be done.
06:17That's really all you need to know.
06:19Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has broken everything.
06:22But I'm going to fix everything.
06:23And we're going to do it very quickly.
06:30The two rivals say they are confident in their victory.
06:33But in reality, the competition is so rough
06:36that only tens of thousands of votes could decide the outcome of the scrutiny.
06:40All this is played out in seven well-identified swing states,
06:43which the two White House claimants have been trying for months,
06:46spending hundreds of millions of dollars on.
06:49Of these seven states, the one that offers the most big voters is Pennsylvania.
06:53It is therefore logical in this state that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
06:57throw their last strength on Monday,
06:59at the end of a tense and anxious campaign.
07:02These last hours are therefore charged for the two rivals.
07:05The vice president will go to Scranton, Joe Biden's hometown,
07:09then to the two main cities of the state, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
07:14At this last step, she should receive the support of several stars,
07:18including Proud Winfrey, Lady Gaga or LeBron James.
07:22After a first meeting in Raleigh, North Carolina,
07:25Donald Trump puts the cap on Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania,
07:29before ending his marathon day in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
07:36The world economy is suspended.
07:40As a result of this US presidential election,
07:43the event has been closely monitored,
07:46emphasizes the agency Featured Ratings,
07:49which notes that the political themes that will emerge
07:52with the new member of Congress and the new administration in 2025
07:57will have potentially important implications on the credit,
08:02especially on Ed Geale.
08:05What could be the impact of the US elections on the markets?
08:09American financial circles are following the crazy presidential campaign
08:12and the growing uncertainty creates a significant volatility on the markets.
08:16The tight race between Trump and Harris has forced investors
08:20to turn to safe assets and to cover the risk.
08:23The market's sustainable trends will be determined
08:26by the implementation of government policy
08:28after the election,
08:30with sudden and possible refunds before the announcement of the results.
08:33World stock markets should experience increased volatility
08:36during the voting hours,
08:38potentially similar to the reactions observed
08:40during the Brexit referendum and the US election in 2016.
08:44At the time, the markets collapsed before the day of the scrutiny,
08:47but recovered when Donald Trump pronounced his victory speech.
08:51The VIX volatility indicator,
08:53established by the Chicago Board Options Exchange,
08:56a standard measure for risk coverage,
08:59plummeted by 35% in October
09:01due to the rise in risk premiums.
09:03The main global reference indices,
09:05such as the S&P 500, the Eurostoxx 600 and the ASX 200,
09:09have fallen, each losing between 2 and 3%
09:11over the last two weeks
09:13due to a risk-off feeling
09:15when market players switch from risky assets to safe values.
09:19However, a victory by Trump
09:21could increase volatility in the market
09:23over the next two years,
09:25while a victory by Harris
09:27could offer more stable economic prospects,
09:29allowing the markets to naturally follow the economic forces.
09:33In October, US state bonds
09:35suffered a strong liquidation
09:37due to two main factors.
09:39First, September's employment figures
09:41showed that the US labor market
09:43was more resilient than expected.
09:45Following the substantial drop in interest rates
09:47from the Fed in September,
09:49bonds prices first increased
09:51while returns dropped
09:53and bonds prices evolved inversely proportionally.
09:57Second, the bet on Trump,
09:59Trump Trade, played a major role
10:01in increasing US Treasury bonds returns
10:03as the billionaire's policy
10:05should lead to an increase in inflation,
10:07which would encourage the Fed
10:09to slow down interest rates.
10:11Bond returns in particular,
10:13those of short-term bonds,
10:15often reflect market expectations
10:17in terms of interest rates evolution.
10:19A Harris presidency would not necessarily
10:21lead to a forced market,
10:23as these policies are also likely
10:25to increase public debt and deficits,
10:27but perhaps to a lesser extent.
10:29The most balanced scenario for bonds
10:31could be that of a divided Congress
10:33that could slow down excessive public spending
10:35and reduce inflationary pressures.
10:52And in the news as well,
10:54in the Middle East,
10:56the Ministry of Health of the Gaza Strip
10:58accused the Israeli army on Monday
11:00of bombing and destroying the hospital,
11:02the only one still in operation,
11:04leaving many injured
11:06among medical personnel and patients.
11:08According to the Ministry of Health,
11:10the army continues to violently bomb
11:12and destroy the Kamal Adwan hospital,
11:14which is targeted by all parties.
11:16The director of the establishment
11:18located in Beit Laya,
11:20Hossam Abu Safia,
11:22described a catastrophic situation
11:24after strikes without warning
11:26beforehand.
11:28The third floor of the establishment
11:30would have been hit again,
11:32injuring six children,
11:34said on social network X
11:36the head of the World Health Organization,
11:38Tedros Ghebreyesus,
11:40challenging international criticism.
11:42Israel officially informed
11:44the UN on Monday
11:46of the ban
11:48on UNHCR,
11:50an agency considered
11:52as the backbone
11:54of aid to refugees
11:56in the occupied
11:58Palestinian territories.
12:12Right away,
12:14we have a guest
12:16from the major newspaper
12:18Medien Morning.
12:20It's the big day.
12:22The Americans vote
12:24on Tuesday, November 5,
12:26to nominate the new
12:28president of the United States.
12:30Who?
12:32Vice President Kamala Harris
12:34or former head
12:36of the Republican State
12:38Donald Trump
12:40will succeed Joe Biden.
12:42144 million voters
12:44are called to speak
12:46today
12:48on the issue.
12:50We are live with
12:52Mohamed Rajahi Barakat,
12:54an international relations
12:56expert.
12:58Hello Mohamed Rajahi Barakat
13:00and thank you
13:02for being with us.
13:06The suspense
13:08is total,
13:10every presidential election
13:12is a historic duel
13:14between Democrats
13:16and Republicans
13:18regarding the identity
13:20of the future president.
13:22Voters are called
13:24to vote
13:26and read their 47th
13:28president.
13:30How is
13:32the vote
13:34of this
13:36election going?
13:38In fact,
13:40as you just said,
13:42this American system,
13:44this voting system,
13:46is quite particular.
13:48Every four years,
13:50an electoral college is formed
13:52to elect the president
13:54of the United States and the vice president.
13:56This college is formed
13:58by 538 great electors,
14:00what we call great electors.
14:02The great electors are elected
14:04in each state.
14:06Each state has the right
14:08to have a certain number of great electors.
14:10The minimum is 3 great electors.
14:12All of this depends on the number
14:14of great electors.
14:16It depends on the number of voters
14:18in each state of the United States.
14:20So,
14:22during the vote,
14:24which is an indirect vote,
14:26people choose
14:28their great electors
14:30who have left
14:32the college
14:34and vote to elect
14:36the future president
14:38and the future vice president.
14:40So,
14:42it's a quite special system.
14:44Sometimes,
14:46the number of voters,
14:48the number of votes
14:50who choose
14:52one or the other president
14:54or candidate
14:56is higher than
14:58the real
15:00result
15:02as
15:04was the case
15:06with former President Trump
15:08when he was elected.
15:10The number of Americans
15:12who voted for him
15:14was much higher
15:16than those who voted
15:18for the other candidate,
15:20for Biden.
15:22So, it's a quite special system
15:24and we will see today
15:26who will be the future
15:28or the future president of the United States.
15:30In this system,
15:32there is also a special way
15:34that voters can
15:36vote in advance.
15:38For two weeks,
15:40the polling stations are open.
15:42Many Americans, as you said
15:44in your report,
15:46have already gone to vote.
15:48Of course, until now,
15:50we don't know who will win
15:52because no poll
15:54has been able to
15:56get a real estimate
15:58of the number of votes.
16:00As you said
16:02in your
16:04report,
16:06it can be
16:08counted
16:10one or the other
16:12can succeed
16:14with tens of thousands
16:16of votes only.
16:18It's a quite rare case.
16:20Mr. Balaket,
16:22let's talk about
16:24the atmosphere
16:26that currently reigns
16:28as a security barrier,
16:30boards on shop windows,
16:32visible police presence.
16:34Uncle Sam's country
16:36has prepared
16:38for any possibility
16:40of violence, keeping in mind
16:42the events that shook it
16:44four years ago.
16:46How to explain these measures?
16:48Can we say that
16:50the spectrum
16:52of January 6, 2021
16:54still plans
16:56on the country?
16:58Of course.
17:00In fact, the former president
17:02and the current
17:04Republican candidate, Donald Trump,
17:06had declared several times
17:08that he will never recognize
17:10the results if he is not a winner.
17:12And yes,
17:14he alluded
17:16to the fact that the American people
17:18are already
17:20among the people
17:22who support
17:24President Trump
17:26as a threat,
17:28and that in the event
17:30that President Trump is not elected,
17:32we will use weapons.
17:34So, there are some experts
17:36who believe
17:38that we are in a civil war
17:40if President Trump
17:42continues to persist
17:44and deny the results
17:46in the event that he does not win
17:48his elections.
17:50The American people, as you know,
17:52have personal weapons
17:56in the hands of the citizens
17:58of Togor.
18:00We know that
18:02the people who support
18:04President Trump
18:06are much more violent
18:08than the other Democrats.
18:10And the statements,
18:12as I have just said,
18:14go in this direction,
18:16that they will eventually use weapons.
18:18So, there are fears
18:20among
18:22the
18:24security
18:26authorities.
18:28That's why they sent
18:30the National Guard
18:32to protect
18:34the institutions.
18:38So, the situation
18:40today will be a little critical
18:42and everyone expects,
18:44or at least a lot of people expect,
18:46that there will be problems.
18:48Let's talk about the
18:50American electoral mode.
18:52What really distinguishes
18:54the American
18:56electoral mode?
19:00As I said,
19:02there is the creation every four years
19:04of this electoral college
19:06and it is not
19:08a direct election.
19:10In France, for example,
19:12the voters choose
19:14the candidates.
19:16Here, they choose the great voters
19:18who will meet
19:20to choose
19:22one of the two candidates
19:24and their vice-president or vice-president.
19:26So, it is a particular system
19:28that does not really reflect
19:30the will of the American people.
19:32The exact number of votes
19:34will not really
19:38correspond
19:40to the outcome
19:42of the elections.
19:44Mr. Barakat,
19:46the American electoral system
19:48means that only a few states,
19:50more or less the same
19:52at each election,
19:54are really
19:56decisive.
19:58Why is the election
20:00played in a handful of states?
20:04In fact,
20:06for the current elections,
20:08we know that
20:10the position
20:12of the current president
20:14of the United States,
20:16for example,
20:18many Arab
20:20or Muslim voters
20:22hesitate to choose
20:24between Donald Trump
20:26or
20:28Kamala Harris.
20:30Kamala Harris is the
20:32current vice-president
20:34of the United States.
20:36The positions of the United States
20:38are very complicated.
20:40They support
20:42a total support
20:44to the United States.
20:46So, the voters, for example,
20:48Arab or Muslim,
20:50hesitate to vote,
20:52but now they have chosen
20:54to vote for the green candidate
20:56who will
20:58maybe get 2%
21:00as a result,
21:02but these are votes that will be lost
21:04for the Democrats.
21:06Because they used to vote
21:08for the Democrat candidate.
21:10And this will influence
21:12the final result of the vote.
21:14So, there is a good chance
21:16that Donald Trump
21:18will be re-elected again
21:20as president of the United States.
21:22And his re-election
21:24will also create
21:26a tension around the world,
21:28not only in the Arab countries
21:30or the Gulf countries
21:32or in the Middle East
21:34but also at the level of the Europeans
21:36who are afraid of the return
21:38of President Trump.
21:40Everyone remembers
21:42when he was president
21:44the measures he took
21:46were practically a small economic war
21:48with the European Union.
21:50He had imposed
21:52customs rights on products
21:54imported by the United States
21:56from the European Union countries.
21:58He had criticized
22:00the European Union.
22:02Very well.
22:04Mr. Barkat,
22:06one last question
22:08regarding the
22:10anticipated vote.
22:12Nearly 80 million Americans
22:14have already voted
22:16by correspondence
22:18or in the polling stations
22:20open for weeks
22:22in some states
22:24which, according to you,
22:26Donald Trump
22:28or Kamala Harris
22:30will benefit more
22:32from this anticipated vote?
22:34I think
22:36Donald Trump will benefit more
22:38from this anticipated vote.
22:40The voters
22:42who are pro-Trump
22:44rushed
22:46to the polling stations
22:48in order to choose
22:50former President Trump.
22:52So, until now,
22:54I think that President Trump
22:56is much more likely
22:58than Kamala Harris
23:00to win or win these elections.
23:02Mohamed Rajaei Barkat,
23:04thank you very much
23:06for this insight.
23:08Thank you for answering
23:10our questions.
23:12I remind you that you are an expert
23:14in international relations.
23:20This concludes our edition.
23:22Thank you for following
23:24the rest of the programme
23:26and for watching it.
23:28See you next time.