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00:00Well, to help us make sensible that, we can bring in Brian Smith, Professor of Political
00:04Science at St. Edward's University.
00:07Thank you so much for joining us here on France 24.
00:10First of all, for the viewers that may not be familiar with the Electoral College system,
00:14help us understand how it works and why it determines the presidency.
00:17Well, first, thank you for having me.
00:20But the Electoral College is a vestige of the original Constitution.
00:25We've never gotten rid of it.
00:26What it does is it enables the states to select the president and not the actual people.
00:32And the Electoral College, right now, we have 538 electoral votes spread across the states.
00:38You need 270 to win.
00:40And most states use winner-take-all.
00:43So the candidate that's able to gather 270 electoral votes from the states is going to
00:49be the next president.
00:52Obviously on the swing states, but why are these battleground states so crucial and which
00:57states are you keeping an eye on?
01:00The battleground states are so crucial because of that winner-take-all aspect.
01:04You win a state like Pennsylvania or Georgia by a single vote, then you get all the electoral
01:09votes from that state.
01:11There's no proportional representation.
01:13There's no second round.
01:14So the key states are the ones that former President Trump and Vice President Harris
01:19are going to.
01:20Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia.
01:24And if you have time, you go out to Arizona.
01:27And will it all come down to turnout, in your opinion?
01:31It is definitely about turnout because you just need to win that state by a single vote.
01:36We're seeing the Democrats trying to get George W. Bush to come back out and endorse Vice
01:42President Harris.
01:43They hated him 12 years ago.
01:45They're just trying to maximize their vote.
01:47And the Republicans are doing the same, trying to find that last single voter.
01:51And for this reason, if the race is as close as we think, we'll wake up on Wednesday not
01:55knowing who's the president.
01:58And are there any trends that stand out in this cycle versus the previous election?
02:02Well, when we look at it, it is almost identical as 2016 and 2020 regarding the states that
02:09matter most.
02:11We haven't seen a lot of change.
02:12We haven't seen a lot of shift.
02:14So those states that really tipped the election for 2016 and then again in 2020 for Joe Biden,
02:21those are the ones at play.
02:23The candidates know the states and they know, don't go to California now, spend your time
02:28in places like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and the Michigan suburbs.
02:33And now this election is not just a race for the White House, but also for the House and
02:37the Senate as well, isn't it?
02:39It is because whomever becomes president doesn't have a blank check.
02:44We know the House and Senate are extremely close and if you get a Democratic president
02:48and Republican Congress, it's going to stop any legislation.
02:52Similarly, if it's flipped around.
02:54So the local elections, your House races, your Senate races are just as important, especially
03:00if your presidential candidate loses.
03:04And lastly, what are you keeping an eye on in this election?
03:09I'm keeping an eye on the polls.
03:10The polls could be one of three things.
03:12One, they underestimate Trump.
03:14They've done that before.
03:15Two, they overestimate Trump.
03:17That happened in 2022.
03:19Or three, they're as close as they say, if the polls are as close as they say, there's
03:24going to be a lot of lawsuits.
03:25It's going to be a real, real long Tuesday night and well into several days afterwards.
03:30It's going to be a long Tuesday night indeed.
03:33Thank you so much, Brian Smith from St. Edwards University.
03:35We appreciate your time speaking to us.
03:38Thank you for having me.