• 2 months ago
Pemerintahan Presiden Prabowo Subianto dan Wakil Presiden Gibran Rakabuming Raka berkeinginan agar Indonesia bisa menjadi anggota BRICS Plus yang diinisiasi oleh negara Brazil, Rusia, India, China dan Afrika Selatan. Adapun surat resmi pengajuan Indonesia untuk bergabung dalam BRICS Plus sudah disampaikan langsung oleh Menteri Luar Negeri Sugiono kepada Menteri Luar Negeri Rusia Sergei Lavrov dalam KTT BRICS Plus di Kazan, Rusia pada pekan lalu.

Dengan demikian, Indonesia hingga saat ini masih dalam posisi menunggu hasil keputusan, apakah negara-negara anggota BRICS Plus bersedia menerima Indonesia menjadi bagian dari aliansi ekonomi mereka atau tidak.

Pemerintah mengklaim, bahwa keputusan Indonesia untuk bergabung dalam BRICS Plus masih dalam kerangka pelaksanaan sikap politik luar negeri yang bebas aktif, dan tidak ikut dalam blok manapun. Langkah tersebut sejalan dengan program kerja Kabinet Merah Putih yaitu mewujudkan ketahanan pangan, ketahanan energi, pemberantasan kemiskinan, dan pembangunan sumber daya manusia. Indonesia juga ingin mengangkat kepentingan negara-negara berkembang di belahan bumi selatan atau global south.

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00:00I'm Prasetyo Wibowo, welcome back to Market Review, where we discuss the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia.
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Live from IDX Channel Jakarta, I'm Prasetyo Wibowo, welcome back to Market Review, where we discuss the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia.
00:31You can watch our live streaming at IDXchannel.com.
00:35Let's start the Market Review.
00:38Indonesia's Prime Minister has officially been sworn in as President of the Republic of Indonesia.
00:51Prime Minister Koso Bianto has stepped up his efforts to bring Indonesia's economy to a positive growth rate of 8%.
00:56One of his efforts is to join forces with BRICS member states.
01:00Prime Minister Koso Bianto and Vice President Gibran Raka Buming Raka want Indonesia to be a BRICS member state initiated by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
01:21The official letter of Indonesia's request to join BRICS has been delivered directly by Foreign Minister Sugiono to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the BRICS Plus meeting in Kazan, Russia a few days ago.
01:34Thus, Indonesia is still in a position to wait for the results of the decision.
01:39Are BRICS Plus member states ready to accept Indonesia as part of their economic alliance or not?
01:46The government claims that Indonesia's decision to join BRICS Plus is still in the process of implementing a free and active foreign policy and does not belong to any bloc.
01:57This step is in line with the Red-White Cabinet's work program, which is to create food security, energy security, energy efficiency, and human resources.
02:07Indonesia also wants to raise the interest of developing countries in the South or Global South.
02:13At present, the number of countries that have joined BRICS Plus consists of the main countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
02:23Then the BRICS Plus member states add five more countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt.
02:31From Jakarta, Tini Putan, IDX News.
02:33Welcome back to IDX News.
03:03Very good, Mr. Pras.
03:05Thank you. Let's start with Mr. Pitra's review.
03:09What is the real condition of Indonesia in terms of economy?
03:14I remember that the new government seems to be in a hurry after the subsidies that have been made to the members of the Red-White Cabinet.
03:24Yes, we can see that even during the retreat yesterday, there were some special assignments from the ministries.
03:36For example, Mr. Sugiono has joined BRICS, and Mr. Tomi Jiwondono has joined IMF World Bank.
03:43This actually shows that there is no time to waste.
03:48Because we can see that the transition process between the Jokowi government and the Prabowo government is seamless.
03:55Some of the current ministers are also heirs of President Jokowi.
04:00Some of them even joined as part of the transition.
04:04Actually, our future economic challenges, and it has been mentioned several times by the Prabowo government,
04:10both by the Prabowo government and its economic team,
04:15is that we need to pursue economic growth above 5%.
04:19Because if we look at the last 10 years, our economic growth, excluding pandemic times, is only 5.07%.
04:27It needs to be pushed above that.
04:30Why do we need to be pushed above that?
04:33Because according to our calculations,
04:35we don't even have much time until 2038, not even until 2045,
04:41to get out of the middle income trap.
04:44And because of that, we need minimum economic growth, the bare minimum, which is 5%.
04:49Mr. Prabowo has already proposed not only 6%, but even 8%.
04:53But I don't think that's a problem, because even if we want to reach the sky,
04:57even if we fall, we are still among the stars.
05:00At least 6%, 5%, 7% can still be achieved.
05:02But the challenge to achieve that 8%, if we set an ideal target,
05:07according to our calculation, from the target of investment needs,
05:10it needs 10 trillion for the next 5 years.
05:13For the next 5 years, what can be fulfilled domestically,
05:16is only 2,000 to a maximum of 3,000 trillion.
05:19While 7,000 trillion of it must come from financing outside of domestic.
05:25In this regard, we see that the outward-looking strategy of Mr. Prabowo and his team
05:30is very much what we expect.
05:34How did Mr. Tomi Jiwondono, at the same time as Mr. Sugiwono went to Russia,
05:40Mr. Tomi Jiwondono went to the United States.
05:43Two opposite poles, but we both agree on the importance of the two poles,
05:47which actually further strengthen Indonesia's position as a neutral country
05:54and an active and free policy.
05:57From the business actor, how do you see it, Mr. Ajib,
06:01related to the government's efforts just now,
06:04as Mr. Peter Gaspol said earlier,
06:07by taking a strategic policy at the beginning of Prabowo-Supianto's leadership
06:12when introducing Indonesia as part of the Sebrik Plus community at the moment.
06:16It is indeed interesting, Mr. Pras.
06:18If we look at how aggressive Mr. Prabowo's programs and policies are,
06:22and we look at how, for example,
06:25when the Minister of Foreign Affairs visited KTT Bricks,
06:29and on that occasion, how Indonesia officially sent to join Bricks,
06:34we see that this is more of a political interest than an economic one, Mr. Pras.
06:39Even though in the current context,
06:41we cannot dichotomize between politics and economy,
06:45because this is already starting to mix.
06:47Because if we look at it, Indonesia's foreign policy is indeed free and active.
06:50So, the philosophy of foreign policy is actually a political movement.
06:55This is a matter of international interest, Mr. Pras.
06:58Then, how is it related to the economy in the country?
07:01Just now, Dr. Fitra also said that
07:04Mr. Prabowo also has a very aggressive economic development target
07:07up to 8%, which is,
07:09actually, the optimism that is built in the global world, Indonesia,
07:12is only around 5%.
07:14The challenges that Mr. Prabowo wants to solve,
07:17we will see in the future,
07:18maybe in the next 5 years, in such a short period of time,
07:21with a limited fiscal space,
07:23and even Dr. Fitra said earlier,
07:25if we want to accelerate economic growth up to 8%,
07:29it is not less than 10,000 investments.
07:31The problem is, the value of our AICOR is actually getting higher.
07:35This means that the rate of investment increase
07:38towards our economic growth is getting smaller.
07:40This is the real problem.
07:42It should be in the context of the economy,
07:44the government must focus on economic growth in the country.
07:45The government must focus on structural economic reform, actually.
07:50And that will be the foundation of our economic growth in the future, Mr. Prawas.
07:54Because if we look at the narrative,
07:56how we join the BRIC,
07:58the fact is also to reduce the level of poverty,
08:01then to increase food security, energy security,
08:05and also to increase human resources,
08:07or human resources, empowering human resources.
08:10These narratives are actually more relevant
08:12when we focus on economic growth in the country.
08:16But in a global context,
08:18we cannot separate it with international relations.
08:20And even besides BRIC, Mr. Prawas,
08:22we also build a strategic military with the name D-8,
08:26or Developing Aid.
08:28Developing Aid is developing countries,
08:30which is like Egypt, India, and others.
08:33But the point is,
08:35how foreign policy cannot be separated from existing economic policy,
08:39the point is how we calculate
08:42how the importance and benefits of the economy
08:45can be greater than just political benefits.
08:47In a political context, we are free and active.
08:49In a political context,
08:51one of our four goals as a country is
08:54to implement the world order
08:56based on freedom, permanent peace, and social justice.
08:59But the important thing is,
09:01our first and second goals as a government
09:03is to discuss the issue of protection of national security
09:05and also to promote public health.
09:07Okay, okay. This is interesting.
09:09The point is, what is the BRIC's contribution?
09:10And what is the BRIC's contribution to promote
09:13the development of public health in Indonesia?
09:15That's the point.
09:17How strong is the urgency
09:19from the point of view that Indonesia also has to play a role
09:22in the field of social politics and economy.
09:25So, how can this be an opportunity for Indonesia
09:28to increase the value of its economic side?
09:31The reason why Indonesia will also join the BRIC
09:33is because of the real form of foreign policy
09:35which is free and active.
09:37We will discuss further
09:38the benefits that Indonesia can get
09:41if we play a lot
09:43or join other economic organizations
09:46such as abroad.
09:48In a moment.
09:50And the broadcaster, make sure you are with us.
09:51Thank you for joining us
09:53and discussing the benefits and losses
09:56of Indonesia joining the BRIC's community.
09:59Okay, we will continue.
10:01And this time, we will go to Mr. Fitra.
10:03Now, let's talk about the perspective of Indonesia.
10:05How about Indonesia's policy
10:07which was free and active
10:09and now it has become more active
10:11and more active
10:13and more active
10:15and more active
10:17and more active
10:19and more active
10:21and more active
10:23and Mr. Ajib also said that
10:25economic development should start from the country.
10:28Meanwhile, as you said,
10:30when we aim for growth above 5%, 7% or 8%
10:33for the next 5 years,
10:35we need an investment value of 10 trillion rupiah.
10:393,000 driven by domestic
10:41and the rest is from abroad.
10:43What is this like?
10:45So that we can get benefits
10:47that really give
10:48extraordinary benefits for Indonesia's economy
10:52if we join the global economic communities, Mr. Fitra.
10:56Yes, in 2016,
10:58WEI conducted a study
11:01which was submitted to the government at that time
11:03to aim for economic growth of 7%.
11:05Okay.
11:07One of them is to target non-traditional partners.
11:10Now, for non-traditional partners,
11:12most of them actually join BRIC's.
11:15Okay.
11:16Non-traditional, but we're talking about Russia,
11:19South Africa,
11:21Iran,
11:23Egypt,
11:25Ethiopia, even Saudi Arabia.
11:27This is an extraordinary potential.
11:30Especially in the Gulf countries
11:32that have been a bit marginalized
11:35in the context of the priority of investment countries.
11:37We can catch up with them.
11:39Especially Mr. Sukiyono is accompanied by Wamen Lu
11:41who can speak Arabic.
11:43So we can catch up with Petrodollar there.
11:44What's more, Indonesia is benefited
11:47because of its neutral position
11:49and we can see it in the trend of friend-sharing
11:52based on the UNCTA category in 2022.
11:55Countries in the world
11:57have entered into a period of friend-sharing
11:59between those who are equal and those who have the same ideology.
12:02The United States with Europe,
12:04while Russia and China are considered as one.
12:07But of course we are friends with all of them.
12:10Now, if I remember correctly,
12:12back in May,
12:15this year too,
12:17we have submitted a proposal to the OECD.
12:19I was not surprised when we submitted a proposal to BRICS.
12:22Why was I surprised?
12:24Because the old power countries
12:26seemed to send a signal of surprise.
12:28When we joined BRICS,
12:30we were not free and active.
12:32In May, I remember
12:34a lot of journalists asked me
12:36if we were violating the potential of being free and active
12:39by submitting to the OECD.
12:40So, either we join all of them
12:43or not at all.
12:45When we joined the OECD,
12:47I said,
12:49we just have to wait for the right time to join BRICS.
12:51And we can see that
12:53Malaysia also wants to submit a proposal
12:55even though they are closer to the OECD.
12:57But they chased BRICS first.
12:59So, I can see that
13:01this is the process of
13:04our free and active ideology.
13:06And we are benefited.
13:08We can get the one from the left,
13:10the one from the right.
13:12So, when we move forward,
13:14it can be supported
13:16by the terminology or the pattern
13:18of a thousand friends are too few
13:20and one enemy is too many.
13:22Okay. Interesting.
13:24From Apindo, your review is related to Indonesian trade relations
13:27with BRICS member countries,
13:29both the main member and additional members.
13:31Mr. Ajib.
13:33We see it positively.
13:35Because working with multilaterals like this
13:37will be encouraged
13:38by the potential of multilaterals
13:40that are more optimal in each country.
13:42For example, in BRICS or OECD.
13:44Dr. Fitra said, and I agree,
13:46that actually,
13:48when Mr. Erlang Gartar,
13:50the Minister of Economy,
13:52suggested that Indonesia
13:54is part of the OECD,
13:56no one said yes.
13:58But then,
14:00what became resistant
14:02and concern
14:04is that if Indonesia joins BRICS,
14:06will it be accepted or not in OECD?
14:08And how about other political policies
14:10globally?
14:12If they are resistant to Indonesia,
14:14any political policy made by Indonesia
14:16will also be resistant.
14:18And once again,
14:20it is more and more affirming
14:22that Indonesia's policy is free and active.
14:24We are not affiliated with any power bloc.
14:26We are free to decide
14:28political policies
14:30and primarily for the interests of the Republic.
14:32Something like that, Mr. Pras.
14:34So, once again, in terms of economy,
14:36Indonesia is very positive.
14:38If it joins BRICS and others,
14:40in terms of multiplier effect,
14:43it will give a kind of trickle-down effect
14:45that in the future,
14:47there will be more dollarization, for example.
14:49When bilateral relations
14:51between the member countries are intensified,
14:53I think the dependence on the dollar
14:55will decrease, for example,
14:57so that the currency will tend to rise.
14:59Well, the context of the global economy
15:01like this, I think,
15:03gives a positive sentiment
15:05to our domestic economy
15:06in the future, Mr. Pras.
15:08And APINDO,
15:10as we said earlier,
15:12APINDO is also active in
15:14the communication and business partnership
15:16that was built
15:18in developing aid, for example.
15:20That is part of
15:22how APINDO always supports
15:24government programs
15:26that give a positive sentiment
15:28to the domestic economy.
15:30That's it, Mr. Pras.
15:32Okay, Mr. Ajem, this is interesting.
15:34So, Mr. Pitra,
15:36this is probably
15:38parallel to other developing countries.
15:40Is it true that Indonesia's decision
15:42to join BRICS
15:44is already right now?
15:46Then, what about Indonesia's membership
15:48in other economic forums?
15:50There is G20,
15:52there is OECD which is still in progress.
15:54Yes, I think
15:56we have to know first
15:58where the history of BRICS came from.
16:00In 2001,
16:02the ideology or terminology of BRICS
16:04was Goldman Sachs
16:06and James O'Neill
16:08in 2001,
16:10who saw that developing countries
16:12needed to invest
16:14in emerging countries.
16:15So, they grouped
16:17Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
16:19There was no S at that time, in 2001.
16:21Then, they decided
16:23to make a joint partnership.
16:25So, actually, what made the terminology of BRICS
16:27was a developing country
16:29because they saw that the potential
16:31of BRICS was huge.
16:33Then, in 2009,
16:34the BRICS summit was held.
16:36Then, there were other countries.
16:38If we look at it from there,
16:40and look at the members,
16:42there is Saudi Arabia,
16:44which is close to the United States.
16:46There is Turkey,
16:48which is part of OECD
16:50which is now being invited to join.
16:52And I think
16:54developing countries
16:56will not be as determined
16:58to take the resources
17:00from BRICS countries.
17:01If we look at OECD,
17:03which was predicted for two years,
17:05I think if we join BRICS,
17:07they will be quick to replace Indonesia.
17:09Because they are determined
17:11to stay away from emerging markets
17:13because the potential of their profits is here.
17:15I think this is not something
17:17that concerns us.
17:19This is an opportunity for us
17:21to attract more investments
17:23from the old power.
17:25Okay. We know the dominance of the dollar
17:27when we try to balance it with the presence
17:29of BRICS,
17:31which is an initiation
17:33or we can call it
17:35from developing countries.
17:37But the dominance of the dollar
17:39in the United States,
17:41can we reduce it?
17:43But hold on.
17:45We will discuss the answer
17:47in the next segment.
17:49And viewers,
17:51we will be right back
17:53with the next episode of Pariwara.
18:01Thank you for joining us
18:03in Market Review.
18:05We will continue our discussion
18:07with Mr. Fitr Faisal,
18:09Senior Economist,
18:11Samuel Securities Indonesia.
18:13Then, Mr. Ajip Hamdani,
18:15Economic Policy Analyst from Pindu.
18:17Mr. Fitr, how about the continuation
18:19of the efforts to suppress the dominance
18:21of the US dollar
18:23or de-dollarization
18:25that also appeared
18:27in the BRICS fund meeting
18:29last 2019
18:31because if we look at it,
18:33there is an ADB study
18:35in 2010
18:37that for Asia alone
18:39to make a single currency
18:41is the fastest in 2050.
18:43A similar study that we did
18:45when I was still at the ADB Institute
18:47in Tokyo,
18:49we talked about how the formation
18:51of ASEAN single currency
18:53is the fastest in 2040.
18:55What is the basis to then
18:57make a single currency?
18:59Homogeneity.
19:01When we talk about BRICS,
19:03there was a cash prize.
19:05It's actually just a gimmick.
19:07In my category,
19:09it's a gift from an invitation.
19:12If there is an invitation,
19:14there is usually a gift.
19:16But it can't be made
19:18into a single currency.
19:20Not yet, it's still a long time.
19:22Because BRICS has a very high
19:24economic variation.
19:26If we just look at
19:28local currency settlement,
19:29why do we use USD?
19:31Because of convertibility,
19:33economic scale, and so on.
19:35If we talk about roadmap,
19:37we can do de-dollarization,
19:39but not in a short time.
19:41This is Putin's way
19:43to shake the perspective
19:45of the United States
19:47because we are now
19:49like Indonesia.
19:51When Indonesia moves,
19:53it enters BRICS.
19:55Malaysia has done it
19:57a few years ago,
19:59why?
20:01Because Indonesia is too big
20:03to be ignored.
20:05That's interesting.
20:07Indonesia's position is quite sexy
20:09for the international world.
20:11Mr. Ajib, what do you think
20:13about the current economic challenges
20:15in Indonesia?
20:17Fundamentally, it still needs to be improved.
20:19There is deflation,
20:21decrease in manufacturing PMI,
20:23stagnation of our economic growth at 5%,
20:25decrease in purchasing power,
20:26we need to understand
20:28that in BRICS,
20:30we are talking about high demand.
20:32Because there are India and China,
20:34the two biggest countries
20:36with the largest population in the world.
20:38It means that when Indonesia enters,
20:40it's another addition.
20:42Indonesia is number 4.
20:44It means that in the economic context,
20:46there will be an enormous demand.
20:48It means that in the future,
20:50it will be an extraordinary power
20:52when it can be well managed.
20:53Although I agree with Dr. Fitra,
20:55when it comes to single currency,
20:57it has BRICS
20:59and a long road ahead.
21:01But I think
21:03movements like this
21:05need to be something
21:07that reaffirms
21:09that Indonesia is free and active.
21:11It means that in the political context,
21:13movements like this
21:15also bring positive benefits.
21:17That's the first thing
21:19in the international geopolitical context.
21:20The second thing is
21:22we are talking about economic problems.
21:24We are talking about a very basic problem.
21:26We are talking about production inefficiency.
21:28We are talking about human resources
21:30that still don't have competitiveness.
21:32And secondly,
21:34we are talking about a lack of productivity.
21:36So, we are talking about competitiveness,
21:38and all kinds of things are still lacking.
21:40When Indonesia can do
21:42structural economic reform,
21:44then we can actually build
21:46a stronger economic foundation.
21:47The ASTA Cita program that Mr. Prabowo is going to build,
21:49out of the eight ASTA Cita programs,
21:51five of them
21:53are about
21:55economic programs.
21:57It means that Mr. Prabowo has shown
21:59that the basic problems
22:01in Indonesia
22:03should be solved
22:05through economic programs.
22:07I think that's what Mr. Ras said.
22:09But once again,
22:11entrepreneurs always have optimism
22:13that we will always meet at 5%.
22:15The global economy also sees
22:17that three countries
22:19that grow at 5% are India,
22:21United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia.
22:23Indonesia also has the same belief
22:25and even the president has more hope
22:27that we will grow at 8%.
22:29It's a challenging number,
22:31but as long as the government can do
22:33structural economic reform,
22:35then in the next five years,
22:37it will be a relatively achievable number.
22:39That's what Mr. Ras said.
22:41Okay. Structural economic reform.
22:43Mr. Fitra, how do you see Indonesia's role
22:45in increasing our active role in the international world
22:47can also be parallel
22:49and support our economic growth
22:51by increasing the common problems,
22:53the fundamental problems of our economy?
22:55Yes, it's very possible
22:57because of what Mr. Ajib said earlier
22:59about inefficiency, economic inefficiency.
23:02Economic inefficiency
23:04can be found a solution
23:06when we then
23:08improve our quality
23:10equal to partner countries.
23:12I remember in 2017,
23:142016-2017,
23:15at that time,
23:17when there was a meeting
23:19of the North East Asia Think Tank Working Group,
23:21I was in Melakil, Indonesia,
23:23meeting with Malaysian friends.
23:25At that time, Malaysian friends had joined the PPP,
23:27Trans-Pacific Partnership.
23:29I asked, why did Malaysia join?
23:31He said, this is our pull factor
23:33because when we share with non-elite countries,
23:35then automatically,
23:37our ability to govern also follows.
23:39That's what we want to pursue now.
23:41We can't just be sincere
23:43or happy
23:45and increase our quality to the top.
23:47How do we do it?
23:49There must be a balance.
23:51What is the balance?
23:53Sharing with the elite.
23:55Sharing with the elite will make us elite too.
23:57And in the end,
23:59the level of governance that has been a problem
24:01from the World Governance Indicator,
24:03there is the role of law, regulatory equality,
24:05government effectiveness,
24:07all of these in the dimension of the World Governance Indicator
24:09can be improved gradually
24:11by being friends with the elite.
24:13Okay.
24:15With this condition,
24:17Mr. Ajib, what do you see
24:19for Indonesia's economy
24:21in the next five years,
24:23at least in Prabowo-Gibran government?
24:25Yes, for a very short time, in 2025,
24:27the economic growth is still at 105%.
24:29But,
24:31the 5.2% is still relatively achievable.
24:34Okay.
24:36Our next target is after 2028.
24:38Why?
24:40Because our fiscal space for the next three years is very narrow.
24:41So, in 2025,
24:432026, and 2027,
24:45we have more than Rp800 trillion debt.
24:47It falls every year.
24:49And our potential,
24:51our income must still be covered by debt
24:53for the next three years.
24:55It means that our fiscal space is also relatively flexible
24:57in 2028.
24:59And our hope is
25:01that the government can push
25:03more competitive sources
25:05with higher value in Indonesia.
25:07So that the economic growth in 2028 and 2029
25:09can be accelerated.
25:11Something like that.
25:13Okay. So, it's already the right step
25:15from Prabowo-Gibran government
25:17to increase the role of Indonesia
25:20in the international arena
25:22by joining the global economic alliances.
25:24As you said,
25:26the frequency will be the same
25:28when we are able to join the developed countries.
25:30Hopefully,
25:32the way of thinking,
25:34the standards of developed countries
25:36can also be obtained from there.
25:37That's the transfer knowledge
25:39that can be obtained for Indonesia.
25:41Well, Mr. Fitra, thank you very much
25:43for the time you have shared with us.
25:45Mr. Ajib, thank you for the analysis
25:47and also the information and update
25:49that you have shared with us today.
25:51Congratulations on continuing your activities.
25:53Regards.
25:55Mr. Ajib, Mr. Fitra, thank you.
25:57Greetings. Greetings, Dr. Faisal.
25:59Mr. Mirsa, don't go anywhere.
26:01Because in a moment,
26:03we will be back with another interesting topic,
26:04which is the optimism of selling 1 million cars
26:07in 2025.

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