Femi Abebefe has identified one key factor in the past 24 Comeback Player of the Year winners.
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00:00Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins now both plus 325, co-favorites atop the market.
00:04J.K. Dobbins, who had a substandard game on Monday night on the road at the Arizona Cardinals.
00:09Dobbins plus 350.
00:11Aaron Rodgers now at plus 550, along with Tamar Hamlin.
00:14I'm like, I guess he can win.
00:16I would never bet him, just saying.
00:18And Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb's at nine to one here.
00:21I feel like you have a lot to say, so go ahead and say it.
00:23Yeah, Nick Chubb will start there because he was the big mover in the market.
00:28If you bet Nick Chubb at 50 to one, 30 to one, 40 to one, whatever, you have a great bet.
00:33I just don't know if it has the upside to win based on the team quality.
00:36Now, I don't think most people think about Comeback Player of the Year as a team award,
00:40but it kind of is.
00:40You need your team to be playing well to be a relevant part of the NFL discussion
00:45once we get into the month of December, which is when everyone starts to make up their minds
00:48on what they want to do with the rewards ballots.
00:51I was looking this up this morning.
00:52I'm always trying to figure out, what are the trends?
00:54What are things that have to take place for somebody to win an award?
00:57Do you know that we have not had a Comeback Player of the Year winner
01:00win that was not on a playoff team since 2003?
01:03That's the last time.
01:042003 was the last time somebody won this award and didn't make the playoffs.
01:08Now, ask yourself.
01:10It was the Cincinnati Bengals.
01:13I don't want to take up too much time here.
01:15I'm not going to know who it is off the top of my head.
01:17It's John Kitna.
01:18John Kitna won the award in 2003.
01:20The Bengals went eight and eight.
01:21So ask yourself, if you think Cleveland can make the playoffs, then go crazy.
01:26Bet Nick Chubb.
01:27But he, last week, had 22 yards and a touchdown.
01:30This week, he goes up against the Baltimore Ravens.
01:32They're an underdog in the market.
01:34There's a good chance they're trailing in the second half.
01:36You think this is going to be a big Nick Chubb game for him to rack up rushing yards?
01:40I don't think that's what it's going to be.
01:41Not to say it can't be that, but just be realistic about the situation.
01:44Do you think the Browns are going to have a lead in the fourth quarter going into that game?
01:47I don't think so.
01:48So if this team continues a downward spiral, they fall to one and seven,
01:52and they can't make the postseason.
01:54I don't think Nick Chubb has the upside to actually win this award,
01:57even though everybody loves him.
01:58I still think it's Kirk Cousins right now.
02:00Unless the Falcons have a complete collapse,
02:02but with Tampa's injuries at wide receiver,
02:04the Falcons, it's all out there.
02:06The red carpet has been laid out for them to win the NFC South.
02:08If they do that, Kirk Cousins, I think, wins comeback player of the year.
02:11I don't like everybody else that's being priced around him.
02:13I think that this is actually a pretty gross misprice in the market.
02:16That is an excellent job by Femi with all of the award takes today.
02:21Yeah, I would not have guessed Kitna.
02:25I don't know who I even would have guessed there.