Do the Celtics have what it takes to repeat?? w/ Adam Mares | Celtics Lab
What does it take to repeat as an NBA champion -- and do the Boston Celtics have it? There has not been a repeat champ in the league since 2018, and there have only been a handful since the turn of the century. At present, the Celtics are heavy favorites to win it all and hang Banner 19, but what does the past tell us about Boston's potential future as a back-to-back champ?
What helps a team repeat from one season to the next? What can get in the way? And which of these things are even under anyone's control? To get to the bottom of that particular pile of data, the hosts of the CLNS Media "Celtics Lab" podcast linked up with cohost of the "All-NBA" pod and DNVR Sports analyst Adam Mares. We took a magnifying glass to the last three franchises to pull off the rare feat and the last three teams which did not, and took notes on what Boston is already doing -- and what else they might want to work at to add to their repeat odds.
We also cover how Boston has looked in preseason play, who might make the last open roster spot (and when), if anyone, and our thoughts on the state of NBA docuseries among other things, so be sure to tune in.
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What helps a team repeat from one season to the next? What can get in the way? And which of these things are even under anyone's control? To get to the bottom of that particular pile of data, the hosts of the CLNS Media "Celtics Lab" podcast linked up with cohost of the "All-NBA" pod and DNVR Sports analyst Adam Mares. We took a magnifying glass to the last three franchises to pull off the rare feat and the last three teams which did not, and took notes on what Boston is already doing -- and what else they might want to work at to add to their repeat odds.
We also cover how Boston has looked in preseason play, who might make the last open roster spot (and when), if anyone, and our thoughts on the state of NBA docuseries among other things, so be sure to tune in.
***************************************************
CLNS Media is Powered by:
Prize Picks - https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/CLNS
Download the app today and use Code CLNS when you sign up & Get $50 instantly when you play $5!
Gametime - https://gametime.co
Take the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets with Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code CLNS for $20 off your first purchase. Download Gametime today. Last minute tickets. Lowest Price. Guaranteed. Terms apply.
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SportsTranscript
00:00:00Alrighty, welcome to the Celtics Club podcast brought to you by Price Picks, the exclusive
00:00:13fantasy basketball partner of the CLNS Media Network, and by Game Time Tickets, less than
00:00:17tickets, lowest price guaranteed.
00:00:19I'm Cameron Tepe-Dubai, I'm your host.
00:00:21I'm joined by Dr. Justin Quinn, and I'm joined by Alex Goldberg.
00:00:25In the second half of the program, we're going to talk to Adam Mares of the All-NBA
00:00:29pod and DNVR Sports.
00:00:32We figured as someone who covers the Nuggets, Adam could help us look at what it takes to
00:00:38come up short in defending a title.
00:00:40I think a lot of Celtics fans know the past six teams that tried to defend their title
00:00:45came up short, and so we looked at what they got wrong.
00:00:48We also looked at the three repeat NBA champions this decade, I mean this century, to see what
00:00:55they got right, but I mean also that tells you something about how rare it is.
00:00:58So that's in the second half of the program, a previously recorded conversation with Adam
00:01:01from a few days ago, nothing consequential happened that changed the tenor of that conversation.
00:01:06So thanks Adam, Adam Mares of the All-NBA pod, DNVR Sports.
00:01:10Make sure to check out his work and check out the second half of this podcast.
00:01:13First, Alex, Justin and I are going to go around the horn, talk about what we saw in
00:01:16preseason, some other news stuff, and then we'll get on to that conversation with Adam.
00:01:22Justin, how are things in Mexico?
00:01:25Well, I don't know if it's been showing up in previous podcasts, but the last couple
00:01:30of podcasts are drilling a well behind the park where I live next to, and it's been making
00:01:35this wonderful motorized noise that just never goes away, and it's finally stopped.
00:01:40So pretty good.
00:01:42And you didn't like go crazy with the silence?
00:01:45You know, I actually thought like if this was an amusement park ride, I would pay money
00:01:49for it.
00:01:50And then I realized that just means I'm old.
00:01:51So yeah.
00:01:52Alex, are you still in Cambridge?
00:01:57No, I'm in Brooklyn, New York right now.
00:02:00I just got back earlier today.
00:02:01Yep.
00:02:02Well, tell the people how your hometown shows were.
00:02:05Well, the hometown shows were terrific.
00:02:07We played one show at the House of Blues opening for the California Honey Drops.
00:02:12That's my band Divine Sweater.
00:02:13If you like the song at the beginning of this podcast, we did that.
00:02:18And so that was terrific.
00:02:20Love House of Blues.
00:02:21Much love to California Honey Drops.
00:02:22Thanks for having us.
00:02:23And then after that, this past weekend, we played at Mad Love Festival in Hingham, Massachusetts,
00:02:29which was also a lovely time with some of our buds, including Mint Green, terrific local
00:02:34Boston band.
00:02:35Should check them out.
00:02:36Yeah, both shows were great.
00:02:38Back in Brooklyn now, posted up here for at least a month before we're back in Boston
00:02:44at the St. Clair opening up for the Rex.
00:02:46So time to recuperate, relax and watch the Boston Celtics receive their rings and get
00:02:52the regular season started.
00:02:54Yeah, they got one more preseason game up in Canada Tuesday night.
00:03:00So some people will have listened to this after that game happened.
00:03:05Good luck to them.
00:03:06They played just under the preseason first and then the odds and ends of starting five
00:03:10and stuff.
00:03:11We saw Boston play two more preseason games.
00:03:14They played the two in Abu Dhabi, two pretty big wins.
00:03:18They played Philadelphia.
00:03:19Philadelphia was coming off a back to back.
00:03:22They played in Iowa the night before.
00:03:23So they didn't play their top eight guys and Boston beat them by 50 because Boston played
00:03:29their starters.
00:03:30It was a fun game.
00:03:32Alex, I'm going to ask you about your experience later.
00:03:36Fun game, big crowd, but not a competitive one.
00:03:40Then Boston played Toronto, got up to another big lead.
00:03:44Boston didn't play any of their starters.
00:03:45Toronto played a few of their starters, still Peyton Pritchard and company built a big lead
00:03:49and then they stopped doing their threes.
00:03:52Toronto made it close.
00:03:53So the final score 115, 111 maybe doesn't tell the whole story, but who cares?
00:04:00It's the preseason.
00:04:01The story doesn't matter.
00:04:03I think the thing that's most interesting coming out of this is who's going to land on the
00:04:08roster.
00:04:10I want to get us to Jordan Walsh.
00:04:11I want to get it to Lonnie Walker.
00:04:13Justin, give us an update on Jay Scrubb because he signed an Exhibit 10 with Boston after
00:04:19being with the team last year towards ACL, right?
00:04:22Yes.
00:04:23Stuck around, stayed with the team orbit, but it wasn't clear if he was going to re-up
00:04:27and in theory he re-upped.
00:04:30It depends on what you mean when you say re-up there.
00:04:33I mean, there's still fresh memories of how well he was doing in the Las Vegas summer
00:04:36league, the one before last, looking like he might actually make that version of the
00:04:40Celtics.
00:04:41He's been away from the game for basically a full year and he's really just starting
00:04:46to wrap up the rehab process and get back into playing five-on-five basketball.
00:04:50So it looks more to me like this is a genuine Exhibit 10 deal that is going to send him
00:04:56to the main Celtics through a little bit of extra money if he completes the requisite
00:05:01amount of days to get that lovely bonus, which is relevant to something else we'll talk about
00:05:05shortly, I think, but I'm getting ahead of myself.
00:05:09Long story short, don't expect him on the Celtics roster.
00:05:12They're not paying $10 million in taxes to bring him on when they could just leave it
00:05:16open and maybe bring him on later, like someone else, maybe.
00:05:21Yeah, I'll take the bait.
00:05:23So Boston is paying $3.75 for every dollar they spend over the tax right now, but if
00:05:32they spend a little bit more, then it's $4.
00:05:33So the back of the napkin math for Lonnie Walker making a vet minimum is that it costs
00:05:38Boston $13 or $14 million, something like that.
00:05:43And look, we're not crying crocodile tears that billionaires have to spend money to keep
00:05:48their basketball team together, but the calculus is the calculus.
00:05:51And so Lonnie Walker has to be not just good enough to make the team, but good enough for
00:05:56the ownership to spend an extra $10 million, as opposed to, say, a guy like J.D. Davidson
00:06:02who's already under contract does similar things, perhaps as well, perhaps not.
00:06:09So that's kind of one of the major questions coming out of preseason.
00:06:13Let's do it quickly.
00:06:14So 30 seconds or less.
00:06:15Alex, I'll go to you first.
00:06:16Looking to the crystal ball, what happens with Lonnie Walker?
00:06:19Yeah, you know, it's tough because I think he did actually play probably his best game
00:06:24in preseason recently, but I am more and more skeptical that he's going to be on the Celtics
00:06:30roster on opening day.
00:06:31I just feel like for the reasons you laid out, he hasn't shown enough in preseason for
00:06:37me as a third guard who's really not going to get a tremendous amount of minutes.
00:06:42He hasn't shown enough separation between, say, like a Jaden Springer or a J.D. Davidson
00:06:47to justify the ballooning payroll that it would take to keep him.
00:06:53I think he has a place in the NBA.
00:06:54I think there is a team out there that's going to sign Lonnie Walker and he will be in an
00:06:59NPA rotation this year.
00:07:00I just don't see it in Boston.
00:07:02Dr. Ben, I do think there is a very tiny runway for him to land with the Celtics at the end
00:07:10of the season.
00:07:11After the main Celtics has paid most of his salary, he's got that little exhibit and bonus
00:07:15made himself about 100 grand, and then he can come and play for the Celtics for a prorated
00:07:21minimum that will cost the Celtics considerably less, depending on when that was in the season,
00:07:26they had from the last day of the season.
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00:08:17Run your game.
00:08:18Yeah.
00:08:19Like if you're a Lonnie Walker truther, that's probably the best outcome is he goes to Maine
00:08:24and then they pay only part of his salary to bring him aboard at the end of the season.
00:08:30I just, I, his style of basketball, like I don't, I don't see it fitting with this version
00:08:36of the Celtics.
00:08:37So like if they need a offense for spark plug off the bench, something has gone wrong.
00:08:42He, you know, he showed out, he's passing well.
00:08:45He was defending well, he's moving off ball better than I think we expect from Lonnie
00:08:48Walker.
00:08:49I think he sincerely like, you know, wants to fit in if he wants to hang out in Maine
00:08:53and it seems like he, he maybe does.
00:08:55That's a great developmental project.
00:08:58If he wants to be Lonnie Walker, so in that Toronto game, he scored like 20 points.
00:09:02He kind of just got to like pound the rock a little bit.
00:09:05I just, I don't see Boston needing that long-term and not because I don't want the ownership
00:09:10group to spend their money.
00:09:11I think that that's what they have to think about, but because there might be a better
00:09:15use of an open roster spot, a two-way, like I just, I think Alex, you're right.
00:09:22Lonnie Walker, like he seems good enough to continue to play in the NBA.
00:09:25I don't know if the glove fits here.
00:09:28Jordan Walsh looked pretty damn good.
00:09:33He's still on a two-way Boston has the luxury of not needing to upgrade his contract.
00:09:40And so they can continue to develop him, continue to play him in Boston proper as needed,
00:09:46as wanted and punt on, you know, giving him a full blown contract, Justin, you get to
00:09:53go first.
00:09:54What are your thoughts on Walsh after a nice, a nice show here?
00:10:00It feels like their initial read on how he was going to look on the floor.
00:10:06Once he had some NBA experience under him as played out, he looks like a real NBA player.
00:10:11He still needs to play against some real NBA talent.
00:10:14It's important to keep in mind that he's not exactly playing against the best of the best
00:10:19in these games so far, but he will be playing against those players anyway, when he does
00:10:23see the floor of the season, he's going to be playing, you know, blowouts, he's going
00:10:26to be playing on, you know, against future lottery teams, things like that.
00:10:32He's not going to get a ton of minutes, I think, even if things go great with him this
00:10:36season, but he might earn a small spot by the end of the season.
00:10:41Sure.
00:10:42Yeah.
00:10:43I think it jumped out to me on the most recent tape that Jordan Walsh is playing much better
00:10:47when he's playing under control.
00:10:50It feels like, you know, the nerves were pretty high in summer league, particularly with O'Shea
00:10:55Berset no longer returning to the Celtics.
00:10:59It feels like, you know, there was real, he was feeling real pressure to, like, try
00:11:02and secure a roster spot and kind of show out.
00:11:06And I get that, you know, energy is high.
00:11:09You want energy players who can come in and, like, shift the course of a lethargic regular
00:11:14season game against, you know, the Raptors or whatever.
00:11:17But Jordan Walsh looked best in this preseason when he was playing under control.
00:11:23And I think if he's able to really kind of settle into, like, these are the things that
00:11:27I do, not try to, you know, push outside of that too much.
00:11:33Just play good defense, you know, shoot the ball when you have it in an open weak side
00:11:37corner and when you don't have it, you know, use your athleticism, use your size, but keep
00:11:43it moving.
00:11:44You know, you're not the focal point here.
00:11:47If he does that, I think there's a chance that he could kind of slot into that O'Shea
00:11:52Berset role.
00:11:53I don't think he's quite as seasoned as O'Shea and probably would not have the same level
00:11:58of impact.
00:11:59You know, I think there were times obviously O'Shea wasn't like a huge part of the rotation
00:12:04last year, but he had a meaningful handful of appearances.
00:12:07I don't think Jordan Walsh is quite that level yet, but he could be.
00:12:11And it's worth taking a flyer on him based on what we've seen in preseason or just the
00:12:16status quo is the flyer, right?
00:12:17I mean, they don't have to.
00:12:18They don't have to make a move, which is nice.
00:12:20Yeah.
00:12:22I think, I think the only person that's preseason who didn't have a good preseason for the South
00:12:25is Baylor Shireman.
00:12:27Luke played great, Tillman played great, Kata played great, Drew Peterson.
00:12:32I don't know if he is a future, you know, in the NBA, but he played great.
00:12:37And Walsh played fantastic.
00:12:39So like if you're Boston, you're, you're feeling like top to bottom and up to Portland, everything
00:12:44is looking great.
00:12:45I think Shireman's shot is like seeing it in person, it's what, it's something's up,
00:12:49but we can do a whole podcast on that some other time.
00:12:52Let's do this.
00:12:54Let's pause the action.
00:12:55Let's talk about our friends over at game time, and then we'll do P's and Q's for a
00:12:58little bit longer.
00:12:59And then off to our conversation with Adam, Adam Marais, he's going to talk to us about
00:13:03what it takes to repeat.
00:13:04But first, let's talk about our friends over at game time.
00:13:08The basketball season is here.
00:13:10That means the roar of the crowd, the energy of a live game, the smells, the sounds, the
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00:13:53And I love that you can view your seats before you buy.
00:13:55I also appreciate that they take the guesswork out of buying tickets, you filter by price,
00:13:59you filter by section, filter by seat view, you filter by what you want to filter by.
00:14:03And they offer things like the lowest price guarantee, event cancellation, protection
00:14:06and more.
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00:14:25What time is it?
00:14:26Game time.
00:14:27All right, back to the podcast.
00:14:30That's my reminder to put what time is it game time in our intro and post roll.
00:14:36Anyways, we'll do a little bit here.
00:14:39And then off to our conversation with Adam, Alex got to do something special.
00:14:44So we I've said this before, being a sports journalist is a really funny job because you
00:14:52have to be cool as a cucumber and act like it's not that big of a deal.
00:14:57But you get to do these amazing things and you get incredible access.
00:15:01And so Alex, who's a rock god who gets to play on stage with people like Ed Sheeran
00:15:05and stuff, maybe is a little more jaded and comfortable, but Alex got to cover his first
00:15:09NBA game.
00:15:11The Celtics hooked it up.
00:15:13I think they're thankful for the work that we do.
00:15:15It was not like it was above board.
00:15:18We worked really hard.
00:15:19You listeners are part of that.
00:15:20But Alex, it was a cool opportunity.
00:15:24As you, Alex Moll, your favorite moments from that, Justin, do you remember your first time
00:15:28covering an NBA game and that like a thing that surprised you or like a super cool moment
00:15:33you had?
00:15:35Oh, probably it would have been being impressed with the military like precision of the Miami
00:15:47Heat covering the NBA Mexico game.
00:15:52And that's all I'm going to say.
00:15:55Polite. I think one of the first memories I have is these people are so tall.
00:16:02I'm not one of those.
00:16:03No, I mean, like when the seven footers appear next to you and they sit down and like you
00:16:09just feel like you're like a toddler.
00:16:11Yeah.
00:16:12Yeah.
00:16:13That's wacky.
00:16:14Alex, I'm going to ask you your question, but I'm also going to embarrass you.
00:16:17Alex asked a great question that Jalen really jumped on.
00:16:23And then Luke Cornett was giving what was a bad press conference.
00:16:26And Alex asked him about the Vanderbilt Alabama game.
00:16:29And Luke like completely shifted gears and gave a great answer.
00:16:33And like, I'm going to be honest with you, Alex.
00:16:36Like it was a bad press conference.
00:16:37Luke was like seems really uncomfortable.
00:16:39You kind of saved him there. So good job.
00:16:41Anyways, well, what do you remember?
00:16:43You don't play cool.
00:16:44Like what do you remember from the night?
00:16:46Well, I mean, you know, I just first got to shout out my guy, Luke Cornett.
00:16:49Luke, if for whatever reason you end up listening to this podcast, you know, I'm sure that
00:16:55with those press conferences, there's a lot of questions about basketball.
00:16:58But if you ever want to talk Vandy football or just, you know, hang out and vibe with
00:17:02us over on Celtics Lab, we're more than happy to talk about basketball, football, whatever
00:17:07you want to chat on. So feel free to come on.
00:17:10No, it was really fun.
00:17:12I really liked kind of first off, just the physical experience of like getting to see
00:17:17a different part of the TD Garden was cool.
00:17:20You know, I've been a million times as a fan.
00:17:23And, you know, I've been to different sections and sat in different places.
00:17:27But getting to actually kind of go into the guts of the garden, like see all of the stuff
00:17:32that's happening behind the scenes, all of the activity, you know, that is happening
00:17:36on staff and, you know, kind of meeting people like that was really cool.
00:17:40Shout out to the staff at TD Garden.
00:17:42Y'all are working your butts off and that's just preseason.
00:17:45So I can't imagine what it's like for a regular season game.
00:17:49Obviously, it was great to hang out with all of our CLNS reporter crew, Jack Simone,
00:17:57Noah Dalzell, Bobby Kravitzky, you know.
00:18:00Bobby's not on CLNS, so you're not obligated to shout him out.
00:18:02Fine, fine, fine.
00:18:03Even so, it was it was nice to see everybody and, you know, to kind of see them in their
00:18:08element.
00:18:09That was cool as well.
00:18:10You know, and obviously, like, you want to play it cool, but, you know, it's sometimes
00:18:17a little nuts to, like, fist bump Jalen Brown in the tunnel and, you know, say hi to Derek
00:18:22White as he's getting ready for warmups.
00:18:25I think other things that stood out to me is that Joe Mazzulla really doesn't have an
00:18:31off switch at all.
00:18:34He is he is just exactly like that all the time.
00:18:37Like what you see is very much what you get for that dude.
00:18:40He was in midseason form.
00:18:42I did not ask a question at Joe's press conferences either before or after the game because he
00:18:47seemed far too locked in and I didn't want to ask a question that he would dismiss out
00:18:52of hand.
00:18:53Yeah, I asked a question before and after and he hated both of them.
00:18:57Yeah, that'll do it.
00:19:00He hates all questions.
00:19:01He really, Joe is really cut from the cloth of Bill Belichick.
00:19:07I think he's going to be the Celtics coach potentially for a very long time and be giving
00:19:12a lot of these Kurt answers throughout that period.
00:19:15Yeah, you know, it was cool to interact with the players.
00:19:19You know, we got to chat with Drew Hanlon, which was fun and got some interesting tidbits
00:19:24on his work on starting five and other things like that.
00:19:28So that was cool.
00:19:29Yeah, in general, it was just a really, really fun experience.
00:19:33And you know, it was my first time actually setting foot on the parquet, which was great.
00:19:38You know, just there's not many times that people get to do that.
00:19:42So in general, really grateful.
00:19:45Thanks to the C's for letting me tag along.
00:19:47Would love to do it again.
00:19:48If for whatever reason you need a person to go see a game at Barclays Center in Brooklyn,
00:19:54I'm happy to do that as well.
00:19:56Or in Madison Square Garden.
00:19:58Yeah, hit my line.
00:20:00I'm around and happy to do it again.
00:20:04As a small aside, actually, the press credential went in as Celtics Wire.
00:20:07So you were here as possibly Celtics Wire person, not Celtics Lab, but whatever.
00:20:15And yeah, I think you had such a good time because it's such a good tour guide, huh?
00:20:19Might be a possible A. What do you mean by that, Justin?
00:20:23I mean, it wouldn't be out of the question, I think, for the Celtics if they are issuing
00:20:29media credentials.
00:20:30But you know, I was looking into it.
00:20:33I mean, we had this conversation, the Knicks, sorry, we're not there yet.
00:20:39But for the Nets, that feels possible.
00:20:42Yeah.
00:20:43I have to say, one other quick thing, in addition to doing all this stuff, a game did happen
00:20:48that night.
00:20:49And just briefly on that, a couple of takeaways.
00:20:54First off, as you mentioned, Luke Cornett looks terrific and very comfortable in the
00:20:59starting lineup.
00:21:00Admittedly, he was abusing a bunch of guys who were five inches shorter than him.
00:21:05But he looked really comfortable, and he spoke to that in the press conference, getting good
00:21:09separation on screens, rolling to the rim, making his presence known on defense.
00:21:14But we got to give a shout out to Xavier Tillman, the standout player in that game, three for
00:21:21three from deep, terrific defense the whole way.
00:21:24Guys, if Xavier Tillman's three point shot is a real thing, holy smokes, the rest of
00:21:30the league is in so much trouble, because that guy could be a really, really good bench
00:21:35player.
00:21:36Yeah, heard that.
00:21:39Justin, we have starting 500 notes, I guess.
00:21:43I think we're allowed to say this, that it was confirmed to us that there's a second
00:21:47season I haven't come out and said it, but a bunch of people have and now we're saying
00:21:50it too.
00:21:51There's a second season.
00:21:52They're working on it.
00:21:54To my knowledge, there's not Celtics players involved, but if you like the program, great,
00:21:59they're going to do another.
00:22:00Justin, did you have any thoughts that you want to share?
00:22:03I'm just curious to see what you guys thought of it.
00:22:06I definitely watched the first episode with my wife, who will watch some basketball things,
00:22:11but she will not be watching future episodes of this.
00:22:15It really feels like a basketball sicko series.
00:22:18You really, really, really have to get into basketball.
00:22:21Yeah, that's what I thought.
00:22:22I was like, you wouldn't even understand really what's going on if you didn't already know
00:22:24what happened.
00:22:25I mean, I think LeBron James is a really compelling character and always will be.
00:22:31He's just very good at, you know, doing media stuff.
00:22:34And I think, like, you know, the stuff with his family was fun and interesting.
00:22:38And he's inherently a compelling figure, both in and outside of basketball.
00:22:44But yeah, I largely agree.
00:22:47Much of the narrative that exists for the players they chose, you know, deserved or
00:22:52not.
00:22:53It doesn't work very well without the context of, like, knowing, like, their entire arc
00:22:59of their careers, basically, up to this point.
00:23:01And to that point, it is a basketball nerd series, for sure.
00:23:06Yeah.
00:23:07I asked Joe Mozilla what his goals were for the season, and he didn't give an answer.
00:23:12But a goal I have for us this season is when we say, oh, we only need to go eight minutes
00:23:17here.
00:23:18Let's keep an eye on the clock, because we just tripled the amount of time we talked.
00:23:22So let me note that Al Horford, it was promised he was going to play, that he's quote unquote
00:23:27ramping up.
00:23:28But that's not because he's injured.
00:23:29It's because he's old, and that he'll play sometime in the preseason.
00:23:34That would mean Tuesday in Toronto.
00:23:37I'm not 100% sure they follow through on that.
00:23:39They don't need to.
00:23:40Maybe they will.
00:23:41But in theory, future people, listeners, podcasters, will get to see Al Horford play in Toronto.
00:23:51Yeah, it's the preseason.
00:23:52It doesn't matter if he doesn't play.
00:23:53Like, don't freak out if he doesn't play.
00:23:55I have to say, yeah, Al Horford, buddy, you've earned it.
00:24:01You don't need to play that game.
00:24:02I think we're going to be fine.
00:24:04Honestly, one last thing, too, about the Sixers is they seem to have discovered that they
00:24:10do not need to play their key older players in unimportant games, which has me very curious
00:24:16as to whether this might actually be a really good Joe Allen beat season.
00:24:21Really important addendum to that.
00:24:23I was just scrolling through Twitter while Cam was reading during the ad break, and Paul
00:24:27George tweaked his knee and is not going to be back for the rest of the Sixers preseason
00:24:31game tonight.
00:24:32So speaking of not playing old dudes in preseason, maybe that's a lesson that we should not play
00:24:38Al Horford in Toronto's preseason game.
00:24:41Yeah, let's segue to our conversation with Adam Marais.
00:24:45A big, big, big theme of what does it take to repeat is get healthy with injury luck
00:24:51two years in a row.
00:24:53We had other takeaways and analysis, like we actually put on our history teacher hats
00:24:57and thought about it, but let's keep it real.
00:25:00Health is really important.
00:25:01And so, Al Horford, do what you've got to do to stay healthy up in Toronto because can
00:25:08you imagine?
00:25:09Anyways, thanks for listening to this part of the podcast and the next part of the podcast
00:25:16and all the parts of all the podcasts.
00:25:18We are going to swing things over to our past selves, our competition with Adam Marais of
00:25:22the All-NBA pod and DNBR sports about what does it take to repeat in the NBA and how
00:25:28do teams mess that up?
00:25:30Until next week, we'll catch you later.
00:25:32See you.
00:25:33All right.
00:25:34Welcome in to the podcast, Adam Marais of All-NBA pod and DNBR sports and a whole bunch
00:25:39of other things.
00:25:40Adam, you are our expert and our historian and our wishcaster on what it takes to repeat
00:25:48and what happens that causes teams to not repeat in the modern NBA.
00:25:52So with that, Adam, how are you?
00:25:54I'm doing good.
00:25:55I can definitely tell you how not to repeat as I just followed a team that did not, that
00:25:58failed to repeat.
00:25:59So I'll be an expert on that one for sure.
00:26:01Exactly.
00:26:02Yeah.
00:26:04Let's learn from mistakes.
00:26:05That's how it's done.
00:26:06So what we'll do is we're going to take this in parts.
00:26:09We're basically going to consider some of the extenuating circumstances that go into
00:26:15the team building and then look at the teams in recent history that have been able to repeat
00:26:19and repeat again.
00:26:21But then also look at the teams that haven't.
00:26:22Boston, what is it, five years, six years straight now that a team has not repeated
00:26:26as champion in the NBA.
00:26:27So we want to get a little specific and look at what were the things that stopped those
00:26:32teams from repeating, the Nuggets being one of them, and does that apply to Boston?
00:26:36So this is about history and a little bit of logic and a little bit of legalese because
00:26:42the CBA in particular is pretty strict for team building.
00:26:46It's really not sexy for sports fans to have to worry about how millionaires get their
00:26:51checks or how teams structure their books.
00:26:54But so much of team building has to do with what is legally possible.
00:26:58And then also the macro trends we've seen in the NBA through the past few years.
00:27:05Adam, though, Justin wanted me to start with a question.
00:27:11You recently claimed the Celtics are not an interesting team in the East, Adam.
00:27:15So welcome to the Celtics Live podcast.
00:27:17Why aren't the Celtics interesting?
00:27:18Man, you guys are putting me on right away, like putting me on the spot.
00:27:22This is a warm up.
00:27:23Yeah, this is the warm up, huh?
00:27:24It's going to be a tough one.
00:27:26It wasn't that the Celtics aren't interesting.
00:27:29They weren't, to me, one of the five most interesting teams and it's really a credit
00:27:31to the Celtics.
00:27:32The Thunder, by the way, spoiler alert, were not one of the top five most interesting teams
00:27:36in the Western Conference.
00:27:37And I think it's because they're clearly the two best teams in their conference.
00:27:41I think the Celtics last year had such consistent success.
00:27:46They clearly have a repeatable style of play that is, you know, the margin for error for
00:27:50it is pretty wide.
00:27:51So you have a hot shooting night, you have a cold shooting night.
00:27:54They get what they want every game.
00:27:57And I think this year, what's interesting about them is that they're shorthanded
00:28:00guys early.
00:28:01But I don't know how interesting that is as an overarching storyline.
00:28:03When they're healthy, I think they're going to clearly be the favorite in the East.
00:28:06And it was as simple as that.
00:28:08All right.
00:28:09Fair enough.
00:28:10So check out Adam's pod if you want to hear more about that.
00:28:12But let's stick with this pod for now.
00:28:13So let's look at the teams that have been able to repeat.
00:28:16And we're already starting to reach back pretty far in NBA history.
00:28:20So we're looking at the Golden State Dynasty from the late 20-teens, the Miami Heetals,
00:28:25and then we have to go all the way back to the Lakers in 2009-2010 to talk about repeat
00:28:30teams.
00:28:31So, you know, there's a lot of smoke about, oh, my God, will the Celtics be able to repeat?
00:28:35This is a new era.
00:28:36But, you know, historically, it is quite hard to repeat.
00:28:41Let's start with Golden State, the teams that won consecutively.
00:28:44They had a lot of things going for them, obviously.
00:28:48Adam, what do you think?
00:28:51This is another warm-up.
00:28:52It's kind of a layup here.
00:28:53What do you think was the biggest factor in Golden State being able to repeat in 2018?
00:28:57Talent?
00:28:58I mean, I think it's simple.
00:28:59It's talent.
00:29:00You know, when I was thinking about this question and preparing for the show, my thought was
00:29:04there really are two types of repeaters.
00:29:06And the most common type of repeater is a team that just from a talent perspective is
00:29:11so dominant.
00:29:12And when I say talent, I really mean top talent.
00:29:14The Celtics are an extremely talented team.
00:29:16The Nuggets are an extremely talented team.
00:29:19The Nuggets have Jokic, who I think kind of fits this category, you know, top-end talent.
00:29:23I don't know if the Celtics do personally.
00:29:25They have a lot of great players.
00:29:26But when you look at the Kobe and Shaq Lakers, we're talking about two of the all-time best
00:29:31players together.
00:29:32So you lose a guy, some things go wrong.
00:29:35It doesn't matter.
00:29:36If those guys are healthy, everyone fits around, you're going to have a chance.
00:29:38Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, that's two of the all-time greatest players to ever play
00:29:42the game.
00:29:43If they're healthy, you're going to have a chance.
00:29:45So I think it's top-tier talent that really sticks out when you just go through the pattern.
00:29:49Even the Miami Heat, who, by the way, the margin of error, they almost didn't repeat,
00:29:54right?
00:29:55They came as close as you could.
00:29:56And they had LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, two of the all-time best, most talented players.
00:30:01When you look at the last three years, the Nuggets, the Celtics, the Warriors before
00:30:06them, the Bucs, the Bucs in Denver, and to some degree, obviously, Steph Curry was phenomenal
00:30:12in that run.
00:30:13He was one of those guys, but you didn't have a second guy.
00:30:15And as we saw, the margin for error was close.
00:30:17Denver could have repeated.
00:30:19Milwaukee could have repeated.
00:30:20The Celtics next year could repeat.
00:30:22They very well could.
00:30:23But the margin for error, I think, becomes incredibly small.
00:30:26And the truth that nobody really likes to admit in sports, because we talk about what
00:30:30did happen, not what could have happened, is that no matter how good you are, there's
00:30:33a level of luck.
00:30:35And I think for teams of the Celtics' caliber, of the Nuggets' caliber, of the Bucs' caliber,
00:30:40even if you put your best foot forward and build things, you still count on the right
00:30:44matchups, the right health, the right amount of rest, and just some things breaking your
00:30:48way that you can't totally control.
00:30:49Sure.
00:30:50I mean, the Celtics were this overwhelming juggernaut, kind of like these Warriors.
00:30:55But Justin, I'm going to go to you, because there's a lot of team building and circumstance
00:31:00that went into that Golden State team, including a little bit of luck.
00:31:03So Justin, from your perspective, what about the construction of that team was important
00:31:07for them repeating, other than the Kevin Durant of it all?
00:31:11I think, see, one of the things I wanted to talk about was the fact that all of these
00:31:16teams have at least one 60-win season, usually in the first of the two repeats.
00:31:23Sometimes I think one of them comes later, if I remember correctly.
00:31:26But what you're talking about, continuity, I think, is also a really big factor, because
00:31:31these are the teams that are not picking things up from one season to the next, adding a new
00:31:36major minutes player.
00:31:37It's mostly the same team, mostly the same core minutes coming back.
00:31:41There's lesser or greater degrees of that in the three examples we have, but it is a
00:31:44constant in operating.
00:31:46Alex, something we pointed out, I think it was you, in preparing for this, is that all
00:31:52of the teams that we're looking at, including these Golden State teams, they lost in the
00:31:55finals at one point before they repeated.
00:31:58And then they also lost on their way out of this little dynastic period.
00:32:03As a former history teacher, what does that say about the arc of contention?
00:32:08So I think there's a lot of things that we kind of talked about, the top-end talent,
00:32:14or the roster depth, or these kind of MVP-level players that kind of separate the repeat teams.
00:32:21But one thing that might give Celtics fans a little optimism is that the teams that went
00:32:27back-to-back also had previously established runs of playoff success, both before and after
00:32:34their windows here.
00:32:36So if we look at, obviously, with the Warriors, they made the finals in the previous two years
00:32:42prior to this back-to-back.
00:32:44They won one of them.
00:32:45They lost, notably, in the 73-win season.
00:32:48And then they lost again after that win to kind of close that window.
00:32:52In short, the Warriors made the finals five times in a row, and they won two of them with
00:32:57Kevin Durant on the team.
00:32:59Miami made the finals four times in a row.
00:33:02They lost their bookends once against Dirk Nowitzki, and then they won two titles in
00:33:07a row in OKC and San Antonio, and then lost again to the Spurs.
00:33:12The Lakers, in 2009-2010, they won back-to-back titles, but before they won back-to-back titles,
00:33:18they lost the title, notably, to the Boston Celtics in 2007-2008.
00:33:22So if you're looking for possible indicators of long-term success that could be in favor
00:33:29of the Celtics' argument that maybe they are on that level of a potential repeat champion,
00:33:36the main argument going for them is that all of these teams had consistent, sustained,
00:33:42high-level success at making the conference finals, making the finals, and doing so repeatedly
00:33:49for a pretty large chunk of time.
00:33:52Now, obviously, the Celtics made the finals in 2022 and then lost in the Eastern Conference
00:33:57Finals the year before they won last year, but they've been in the mix with Tatum and
00:34:02Brown.
00:34:03If those two guys are healthy, I mean, they've literally made the conference finals or better
00:34:09every year that Tatum and Brown have been healthy for the playoffs, except for the year
00:34:14where Kyrie Irving blew up the team when he decided that he wanted to guard Giannis in
00:34:18the playoffs series, which we don't have to talk about too much.
00:34:22But, so yeah, that's an underlying theme of these repeat teams is they didn't have Kyrie
00:34:27Irving.
00:34:28Adam, I wanted to transition to talking to that trend.
00:34:33I want to talk about the heels because, you know, one of the things I've been on a lot
00:34:37is a player's prime is something we talk about all the time, but it's really meaningful.
00:34:42And we always talk about how players step into their prime when they're 27, 28, 29.
00:34:47We saw with MJ and when we're thinking about the heels, LeBron, I mean, that's why I think
00:34:52panning LeBron for the decision is over, overblown.
00:34:55He was 26 at the time, but that timeline sounds pretty familiar to Celtics fans.
00:35:00Tatum and Brown are 26 and 27.
00:35:02So Adam, reach back and talk to us because history looks inevitable, but to your point
00:35:08earlier, the heels were not inevitable.
00:35:10I mean, they didn't win five, six, seven, like they promised.
00:35:13They won two very nice titles.
00:35:14So take us back.
00:35:17What about the heels looked like a freight train that was definitely going to win a title?
00:35:22And what about them was shakier than perhaps we remember?
00:35:25Well, to me, what's so fascinating about that specific team, because it would be a different
00:35:29answer if you mentioned the Cavaliers who the Cavaliers had a similar setup, but theirs
00:35:32was more injury based, right?
00:35:34Like they just had bad luck at the wrong times for their runs and ran into another juggernaut
00:35:38in the Warriors that just happened to overlap.
00:35:41And that's a part of this story as well, by the way, that a lot of the repeats, maybe
00:35:44you caught the league in a moment or even just your conference in a moment where there
00:35:47wasn't a true challenger to kind of push you.
00:35:50But to your question here specifically about the heat that I find interesting, and it's
00:35:54the biggest wild card that you can never factor into basketball, which is the heat were built
00:35:59at the exact knee of the curve when the league was changing.
00:36:03They built a team that had Zydrunas Elgaskis on it and Joelle Anthony.
00:36:07And it's like players that right now you would be like, well, what role do they have in the
00:36:10league?
00:36:11In 2011, 12, 13, 14, it wasn't quite as small ball spread out as it was in the immediate
00:36:19aftermath of that.
00:36:21But if you think about them losing to Dallas, Dallas was one of the first four out teams
00:36:26with one dive guy and you have a bunch of spacing and they're going to get to the corners.
00:36:31It's funny to think, but the idea of the corners being this valuable real estate that bends
00:36:36the league.
00:36:37In 2011, it wasn't thought of the way it is right now where that's just intuitive and
00:36:40everybody thinks about it.
00:36:42If there's a parallel to this with the Celtics, it would be, one, we know if you saw Rick
00:36:48Carlisle's comments from a couple of weeks ago where he said all the coaches were on
00:36:51a meeting call with the league and they said, hey, this is going to be a lot more physical
00:36:54than years past.
00:36:56Little changes like that, as well as different strategies, or maybe even a new caliber or
00:37:01type of player archetype that enters, and all of a sudden there's a new strategy that
00:37:05shifts that makes what you do less valuable and what others do more valuable.
00:37:09That could be a thing that you can anticipate, and I think with the Heat, that was one of
00:37:12it.
00:37:13They built a team for 2008 entering a 2012, 13, 14 run where the league totally transitioned.
00:37:19To that end, Adam, talk about how important Shane Battier was for this run for the Heat.
00:37:24I mean, he was, right?
00:37:27That was a huge, huge upgrade for them.
00:37:29They're laughing because I spent an hour today talking about I think Shane Battier was the
00:37:34most important player on that team.
00:37:37I think he's more like a P.J. Brown to Boston in 2008, but he's an important player.
00:37:41I think he's just the least important player you could call an important player.
00:37:44Well, here's why I would agree with you, Cameron, and that is that you're right that in terms
00:37:49of absolute value, he was P.J. Tucker, but this was before P.J. Tucker existed, right?
00:37:55Sometimes discovering the mold is part of the importance, and I think Shane Battier
00:37:59discovered the mold of a player that we almost take for granted now because it's like every
00:38:02team needs that, and he was an early version of it for the Heat, at least.
00:38:06We invited you on this podcast.
00:38:08Well, it's interesting because we talk about kind of how the Heat kind of hit part of their
00:38:15success with that.
00:38:16They hit the league at this point in the league's development curve that really worked well
00:38:21for their specific style of play, but part of that is also about roster adjustments and
00:38:26kind of the way that rosters shift around.
00:38:29If you look at the year that the Lakers went back-to-back with Kobe and Pau in 2009 and
00:38:35then 2010, you know, looking at those off seasons, there's almost no significant free
00:38:41agent or trade moves of consequence between those two seasons, and even with the Lakers,
00:38:48they didn't really do much to add or change their roster outside of basically getting
00:38:54Andrew Bynum back and healthy.
00:38:56The Heat, similarly, it's like they bring in Shane Battier one year, and then they bring
00:39:00in Ray Allen the next year.
00:39:02Outside of Chris Paul getting traded to the Clippers, there wasn't a ton of movement across
00:39:07the league.
00:39:08Then you flip to the Golden State example, and you see Kevin Durant going to the Warriors,
00:39:14and there's a flurry of transactions in that space in between those two titles.
00:39:19You know, Kyrie Irving goes to Boston, and, you know, all of these, like the Houston Rockets
00:39:24get in on Chris Paul.
00:39:25All of these different things happen, and, you know, I do think that is another part
00:39:30of this story is in order to understand what you need to get a repeat champion, you also
00:39:36have to understand kind of the state of the league at large in that time period, and,
00:39:42you know, we've seen examples of both where the Warriors, you know, shuffled their roster
00:39:47somewhat considerably in between those two titles, particularly their bench depth.
00:39:54The Lakers, by contrast, brought back almost exactly the same squad, and the league barely
00:39:59changed around them.
00:40:00The Celtics are entering into this weird place where they're bringing back basically the
00:40:04same squad, but the league has actually shifted a great deal around them, so they're kind
00:40:09of entering unprecedented territory, at least as far as recent repeat champions go, and
00:40:15I think it'll be interesting to see if the roster that they bring back from last year
00:40:21kind of still hits the league at this weird inflection point where even with all of the
00:40:26other moves happening around them, you know, Towns to New York or Paul George to Philly,
00:40:33like, are those moves going to get those rosters to the place where the Celtics are, where
00:40:38they can be this hyper-versatile defensive team that can also bomb away from three at
00:40:45historically unprecedented levels?
00:40:47I don't know.
00:40:48It's going to be interesting to watch.
00:40:51That Los Angeles Lakers team that we included in this exercise was interesting, too, because
00:40:57one of the most common characteristics of a contender is top ten offense, top ten defense,
00:41:03or somewhere in that general range, but when you look at the Lakers, they really stuck
00:41:09out to me as, like, one of the last bastions of the non-three-point revolution teams to
00:41:15really win.
00:41:16If you look at their three-point percentages, they are pretty abysmal compared to today,
00:41:21and it's making me wonder if what you were talking about, Alex, like, the league does
00:41:25not stand still from season to season, so bringing back in continuity isn't always necessarily
00:41:32a benefit.
00:41:34So let's do this.
00:41:35Let's move forward in time in terms of history, and let's look at the teams that didn't repeat.
00:41:43Certainly year over year, you know, the landscape of the league changes, Adam, to your point,
00:41:46there's perhaps consequential rule changes within a season that can stack, but let's
00:41:51look at these teams that didn't repeat and see if we can learn anything from a Celtics
00:41:54perspective.
00:41:55I'm going to cross the Toronto Raptors off the list.
00:41:59Renting Kawhi for a year, I think we can figure that out.
00:42:03I'm going to cross the Lakers in 2020 off the list, because I think they just, like,
00:42:07tore apart what was a really good team and completely broke their roster.
00:42:11Lost Dwight Howard, lost Rondo.
00:42:14I think there's one thing that's as important as all of that, which is that this is a trait
00:42:18that goes from the Celtics to the Nuggets to the Lakers, and that is they got an incredible
00:42:23rest before their playoff runs, all three of those teams.
00:42:26For the Lakers, it was the bubble, you know, and four months off for an old, aging team,
00:42:31and then you go into the bubble, and it's like, all right, you know, everybody's kind
00:42:34of healthy and rested.
00:42:35You look at the Nuggets, they were the one seed by eight games or something in the month
00:42:38of March.
00:42:39They completely punted on the month of March.
00:42:41They get into the playoffs, and they were so much fresher than everybody else, and then
00:42:45the Celtics last year, same thing, and, you know, that's not always a luxury.
00:42:49One of the reasons Denver didn't repeat last year, in my opinion, was they had to sprint
00:42:53through the tape in a very competitive Western Conference race that saw them not take any
00:42:57days off, any games off.
00:43:00They were shorthanded Jamal Murray, you know, because he got hurt throughout the entire
00:43:04season.
00:43:05He was in and out of the lineup, and he really got hurt in March, and so everybody overextended,
00:43:09and it's just another thing to think out with the Celtics.
00:43:11Like, they're so good and so dominant, but if Porzingis is hurt, if you suffer one other
00:43:16injury and all of a sudden, you know, you find yourself in December where you're actually
00:43:20tied with another team or behind a couple games, you're going to look at that and go,
00:43:25we're probably playing hard all the way through April 15th, and if that's the case, how does
00:43:29that change things when you get to the playoffs?
00:43:31I think that's one of the number one traits that all of those teams share.
00:43:35Milwaukee and Golden State are a little bit different because it was more injury-based
00:43:38and some other things, but those three, to me, all share that trait.
00:43:42So, yeah, I was going to say something similar, Milwaukee and Golden State.
00:43:46I think we can figure out that they might have been, I mean, Golden State was maybe
00:43:49one last gasp, and Milwaukee's had just, like, miserable injury luck.
00:43:54It's worth, I get to bring up my favorite NBA conspiracies theory, which is Giannis
00:43:58had COVID in the 2021 Finals, and they just didn't do anything about it, but let's bring
00:44:03it back to Denver because, Adam, you got to see a team win a title in spectacular fashion,
00:44:09I mean, Big Honey is one of only six players to win three MVPs, I mean, the dude is bona
00:44:15fide in the most verified air, and yet, Denver, in like a lion, out like a lamb last season,
00:44:23right?
00:44:24Like, it wasn't the most aggressive championship defense.
00:44:30What do you think were some of the flaws?
00:44:32I guess I'm curious in terms of rest, do you think they could have played it differently?
00:44:36I don't think they could have, and I think that that question, could they have done things
00:44:40differently is at the heart of the nuggets, because I think the nuggets have come away
00:44:43this summer saying, like, we need to find more rest for our guys.
00:44:46I disagree.
00:44:47You just need your guys not to get injured, and last year, that's what happened, so if
00:44:51you look at last year, Denver's first seven games or something, they look incredible to
00:44:55start the year.
00:44:56They just looked like, I was like, they're repeating, they're the best team in the NBA,
00:44:58they look awesome.
00:44:59Jamal Murray pulls a hamstring, and it was, and this is like November, and it's really
00:45:03early, and you go, okay, well, it's a bummer, he's out for several weeks, and so the nuggets,
00:45:08everyone's minutes go up a little bit, but it's November, whatever, you can survive.
00:45:12In and out, not really healthy, a couple other guys go out, and all of a sudden, you get
00:45:15to the all-star break, and it's like reset.
00:45:17Denver has survived, but they haven't thrived.
00:45:19They've been pretty good in spots, but they look like they have all the pieces.
00:45:23You get out of the all-star break, they beat the Celtics twice, you know, the high-profile
00:45:27game in Boston and Denver, those were statement wins.
00:45:29They went on a huge win streak, and they just looked to me, again, like they looked
00:45:33in the playoffs, and I was like, there it is, they're back.
00:45:36Jamal Murray gets hurt again, and he has to come out of the lineup.
00:45:39And on top of that, Denver was streaking, number one seed, everything's looking good,
00:45:43it's a repeat.
00:45:44They're going to build a lead in the West, take their foot off the gas, and go into the
00:45:47playoffs healthy.
00:45:48Instead, Murray gets hurt, they fall in the standings, they have to chase Oklahoma City
00:45:53and Minnesota, and they successfully pull it off.
00:45:55With everybody's minutes kind of elevating, they beat Minnesota in the third-to-last game
00:45:59of the year.
00:46:00Jamal Murray had just come back.
00:46:01He didn't look fully healthy, but you kind of felt like, OK, there's positivity and momentum.
00:46:06Denver dropped a game, the second-to-last game of the year, they drop it to San Antonio,
00:46:10who was tanking at the time, and they would have been the one seed.
00:46:14They knew Minnesota was their toughest matchup.
00:46:16Minnesota would have been three, Denver one, and you go, OK, perfect, you're going to avoid
00:46:19your toughest matchup.
00:46:21Hopefully Jamal gets a little rest throughout the playoffs, and he's healthy by round two
00:46:24or three.
00:46:25Instead, you drop that game.
00:46:28These guys had just pushed themselves for 15 straight games to get that one seed, and
00:46:31you drop it.
00:46:32You fumble at the end zone.
00:46:35To me, there's just no question that that was ... You get into the playoffs, Jamal's
00:46:38clearly not healthy, the team is exhausted, and the vibe is low now because the team just
00:46:43knows our whole plan, the whole reason we pushed ourselves for the last month was to
00:46:46have an easy path, and now instead we have a hard path.
00:46:50You get into that series with the Lakers, and if you remember, they got outplayed in
00:46:52every single game.
00:46:53They just outshot the Lakers in the clutch because Jamal Murray and Jokic are awesome
00:46:57in the clutch.
00:46:58They kind of escaped, but they didn't look good in a single game.
00:47:01Not a single game did you walk away going, there's the Nuggets from last year.
00:47:04You looked at the Lakers, they're not good in the clutch.
00:47:07Then you get to Minnesota.
00:47:08They had two 30-point blowout losses in that one.
00:47:10They blew a 20-point game.
00:47:13Jamal Murray couldn't dribble the ball over half court.
00:47:15He didn't look good in the entire playoffs.
00:47:16For me, I think one of the things you always have to do is you look at it and say, was
00:47:20Denver not good enough because of the construction or this or that, or did they look good enough
00:47:24at certain times, but in the moments that mattered most, the playoffs, they just were
00:47:28clearly not rested or in shape enough to carry the burden.
00:47:32More importantly, in the Celtics, this is important for Celtics, you now know what it
00:47:36takes to win.
00:47:38That's a good thing because now you kind of know we push ourselves.
00:47:41We have to do this, that.
00:47:42But you also know what it takes to win when you don't have it.
00:47:45I think the Nuggets last year were like, we're not a championship team.
00:47:49We know what a championship team is.
00:47:50We were that last year.
00:47:51We're not that this year.
00:47:52There was just a lack of belief that I think caught up to them in that series, and it's
00:47:55why they blew multiple major leads in the second half.
00:47:59I think they lost faith that they were going to be able to pull that off.
00:48:03Do you think that that was the right read, or do you think that there's something that
00:48:08Malone could have done, that Jokic could have done, that some of the leadership in that
00:48:12locker room could have done to wrestle back the emotional narrative that the team had?
00:48:17What's hard about the Nuggets that I think is different probably from the Celtics based
00:48:19on what I know about them is that I think Jamal Murray specifically had a hard time
00:48:24with motivation.
00:48:25And if you look at Jokic, I don't know if you guys know this, has played more minutes
00:48:28than anybody in NBA history without an All-Star, a player that made an All-Star.
00:48:33Not an MVP.
00:48:35Any player just has not played with another All-Star.
00:48:38But we all know that's a little misleading.
00:48:40Jamal Murray is an All-Star caliber player.
00:48:42He just doesn't seem motivated to be that 82 games of a year.
00:48:47He's a rare example of a guy that kind of saves it for the playoffs to that degree.
00:48:50So I think to answer your question was, the thing they needed to do was for Jamal to be
00:48:56healthier, and I just think the team looked around and goes, we don't have an All-Star,
00:49:00but we do have a playoff All-Star.
00:49:01And last year they looked around and said, we don't have a playoff All-Star this year.
00:49:04Jokic can only do so much, and it's not going anywhere.
00:49:07Adam, I have one more question for you, and then I want to flip things to the Celtics
00:49:11here.
00:49:13So we were talking before you came on that the Nuggets let Contavious Caldwell Pope walk
00:49:20away, and it's clear that they're a team that's a casualty of the new CBA, and also maybe
00:49:27has an ownership that's not really willing to spend, right?
00:49:31Do you think that this is the beginning of them saying, look, we're not going to spend
00:49:37to win a title, and if we can squeeze another one out, great, but if not, this will die
00:49:41in the vine?
00:49:42Do you think that there is an appetite to do something big, say, trade Michael Porter
00:49:47Jr., trade Aaron Gordon?
00:49:48Do you think that they're going to shuffle the deck here, or do you think they're going
00:49:50to run it back and hope in the next two seasons the bench can fill in what they got out of
00:49:56KCP and others?
00:49:57Well, first of all, I think the reason they let KCP go is they knew that if they signed
00:50:02him they would have a harder summer the following one when they want to retain Aaron Gordon
00:50:07and do different things.
00:50:08So I think there was a fear, and I think this was a bad calculation on their part,
00:50:12but a fear of, it's OK to go in the apron this year, but we have to get out of it next
00:50:17summer.
00:50:18And then you look at it, well, is it easier to get out of it this year or next year?
00:50:20And they said, well, it's easier this year, and they said, OK, we'll play it safe then.
00:50:23We'll lose KCP and what have you.
00:50:26I think that you can't plan around the corner in the NBA.
00:50:29You can never say what you can do next summer.
00:50:31If you have a chance to do something this summer that sets you up, do it, and worry
00:50:33about next summer when it gets there.
00:50:35Denver made a different calculation.
00:50:37So there's that part of it.
00:50:39The ownership group, I think, is certainly cheap.
00:50:41They've earned that reputation to be called that.
00:50:44But I do think they have an appetite to keep this thing going.
00:50:46I just think they believe that Aaron Gordon's a key piece of this.
00:50:50He's up for an extension.
00:50:51I think they want to get that done.
00:50:52And you couldn't do both.
00:50:53You were going to have to pick.
00:50:54So I think they chose Aaron Gordon with the belief that the young players they've brought
00:50:59in, namely Christian Brown, Julian Strother, and Peyton Watson, that those guys are going
00:51:04to be at KCP's level in short order.
00:51:08And lastly, and this is another thing that I think is difficult, is Michael Malone last
00:51:13year.
00:51:14Michael Malone is a guy that just likes his guys.
00:51:15He has less variation in his rotation than anybody in the NBA.
00:51:19The starters play together.
00:51:20The bench plays together.
00:51:21Nobody else does that to the degree the Nuggets do, not even close.
00:51:24And last year, you get into a series where KCP is guarding an Anthony Edwards.
00:51:28KCP's a phenomenal defender.
00:51:30That's a bad matchup for him.
00:51:31He's way too small.
00:51:32But Michael Malone likes his guys.
00:51:34He doesn't like to adjust.
00:51:35He's, hey, what got us here?
00:51:36What got us a championship?
00:51:37KCP.
00:51:38He didn't adjust.
00:51:39And I honestly think the front office looked at that and said, we can't get Malone to play
00:51:43the matchup.
00:51:45He's just going to play his guys.
00:51:46So we have to take him out to force these guys to kind of grow into those roles.
00:51:49So bad, I would call that a bad partnership between those two that ultimately led to that
00:51:54split.
00:51:55All right.
00:51:56Fair enough.
00:51:57So let's do this.
00:51:58Let's, um, I think we just learned a lot about NBA history, what it takes to repeat, or we
00:52:03can pretend like we did.
00:52:04So let's turn our attention.
00:52:05This is the Celtics Lab podcast, not the Nuggets Lab podcast.
00:52:08Let's turn our attention to Boston.
00:52:09And I'm going to go around the horn and ask everyone to share what is the thing that is
00:52:13either going to stop the Celtics from repeating and you can't say health or the thing that
00:52:19is going to guarantee that they repeat.
00:52:23And I guess you can say health.
00:52:24You can have that one.
00:52:25So Adam, as the guest, you get to go last on this one.
00:52:27We'll close up shop with you.
00:52:29I'll go around the horn the other way.
00:52:30Justin, a sunny side of the street or sitting under a rain cloud, what's happening to stop
00:52:36the Celtics from repeating or why do you have them as next year's champion?
00:52:40I'm going to, since I'm usually Mr. Positivity, I will throw a little tiny wrench out there
00:52:46and just say that individual goals, like everyone's saying, it's so great that the Celtics have
00:52:51these narratives that they can focus on with the two top stars being snubbed, et cetera,
00:52:56et cetera.
00:52:57Individual goals are not always good for a championship team, as Celtics fans should
00:53:01know very, very well after all the years of Cam and Jays playing together.
00:53:06After a season of watching them do exactly what we wanted them to do, for them to have
00:53:12some individual scores to settle might not be the best thing.
00:53:15And in my opinion, if there's something that could throw a wrench in all of this, it would
00:53:19be that.
00:53:20All right.
00:53:21Alex, same question.
00:53:23You can remain pessimistic or you can put some wind in our sails.
00:53:29I'm going to put some wind in your sails.
00:53:31I think the Celtics are going to repeat, and I think there's three quick reasons why.
00:53:35The first reason is that I don't think the rest of the Easter Conference got better enough
00:53:40to challenge them in a meaningful way.
00:53:42With all due respect to Karl-Anthony Towns and Paul George, I just am not sure I'm buying
00:53:47those Knicks and those Sixers quite yet.
00:53:49I still need to see it.
00:53:51The second reason the Celtics are going to repeat is because, Justin, you touched on
00:53:54motivation and individual goals.
00:53:56You forgot to mention that their coach is a sick man.
00:53:59Joe Gazzula is a messed up guy who will keep them focused on winning through hell or high
00:54:04water by showing them footage of animals hunting in packs until they all get the message.
00:54:10And then the third reason that I think the Celtics are going to repeat is less data-driven,
00:54:17is less driven on actual hard evidence, and is more just a gut feeling that I think Al
00:54:24Horford really wants to end his career when the book ends.
00:54:28Because wouldn't that be serendipitous to start it off with a back-to-back in Florida
00:54:32and end it with a back-to-back in Oregon?
00:54:35I'm taking Al Horford and the Celtics again this year.
00:54:40That's a great storyline I had not considered.
00:54:43Al Horford's career coming full circle.
00:54:45That would be interesting.
00:54:46I love that.
00:54:47I actually have no idea.
00:54:51Every so often I pitch to Justin, can we just do one podcast where we're really negative
00:54:55and get it out of our system?
00:54:56We've been doing that a couple years ago, all year.
00:54:59Yeah.
00:55:00It's true.
00:55:01I have a lot of negative things that I'd say, but that Jason and Jay Leonard, 26 and 27,
00:55:07they truly are entering their primes.
00:55:09I think they both have levels to reach, and they both seem so much more sure of who they
00:55:16are in the world, on the court and beyond, that it could get really scary really fast
00:55:22if you hear the rest of the NBA.
00:55:23I guess I'll keep it optimistic.
00:55:25Adam Marais of the All-NBA Pod and DNVR Sports and all sorts of other stuff.
00:55:29Adam, you get two-parter.
00:55:31Talk to us about the Celtics, but talk to us about the Nuggets.
00:55:34If I were to say why will the Celtics repeat or not, and I think they have a great chance.
00:55:38I thought Denver had a great chance last year, by the way.
00:55:40I really do.
00:55:41I think there were points of the season where I thought they were number one, but things
00:55:44happen.
00:55:45I think the Celtics have a phenomenal chance to repeat, but if there were a reason they
00:55:48didn't, it's two parts, but they're connected.
00:55:51One would be fatigue and match-ups.
00:55:54I say that to say, I know Celtics fans are going to be very sensitive, Nuggets fans were
00:55:57very sensitive about this as well when people brought it up, but the path through the East
00:56:01wasn't the hardest last year.
00:56:02For the Nuggets in 2023, the path wasn't the hardest.
00:56:05It could have been harder.
00:56:06They could have faced bigger challenges.
00:56:09When you talk about 16-2, 16-4 in Denver's case, that is nice.
00:56:15That's comfortable.
00:56:16You never really felt the strain of a team that pushed you physically and mentally and
00:56:20emotionally.
00:56:21On top of that, when you face good teams, they make you adjust.
00:56:25When you don't have to adjust, when you race through a series and you never had to show
00:56:28anything, the next round, there's no scout on that.
00:56:31You almost still have a few aces up your sleeve.
00:56:35For two years ago, the Nuggets didn't have to show that in any round.
00:56:38Last year, the Celtics didn't have to show that.
00:56:40This next year, with these injuries that you're going to start the season with, do you fall
00:56:44behind in the standings so that in February or March, all of a sudden it's, hey, no, actually
00:56:48we need to step up a little bit and play a little bit more?
00:56:51Do you get into a playoff seating where round number one, you're facing a really tough Orlando
00:56:57Magic team or some team that's like, hey, we should beat them, but it's not going to
00:57:00be four.
00:57:01It's going to be six and maybe seven.
00:57:03You get into a second round that all of a sudden it's Philadelphia.
00:57:06Now this is a whole different type of team where the schemes are different.
00:57:09We're going to have to show everybody a little bit more of how we handle certain situations
00:57:13and then a conference finals and then a finals.
00:57:15If you have to go four rounds of tough and different matchups, it is a game changer.
00:57:21You would like to think that's why you get a one seed is that you avoid that.
00:57:24More often than not, that happens, but it's not always the case.
00:57:27If they were to lose, it would probably be because fatigue and matchups just put pressure
00:57:31on them that they did not feel last year.
00:57:33All right.
00:57:35Well, I hate that you're right.
00:57:37Fair enough.
00:57:38Let me do post roll and then I want you to do the same exercise for the Nuggets.
00:57:44This episode of the Celtics Up podcast is brought to you by PrizePix, the exclusive
00:57:47fantasy basketball partner of the CLNS Media Network, and by Game Time Tickets, less than
00:57:50a ticket, lowest price guaranteed, Adam Marais of the All-NBA Podcast, and the DNVR Sports.
00:57:56And as we established all a bunch of other stuff, Adam, what's good with the Nuggets?
00:58:01Are they going to win a title next year?
00:58:03They can.
00:58:04Their case is way more flimsy than the Celtics is this year.
00:58:06And a lot of that is I think they have Calvin Booth at Media Day said we have nine real
00:58:10guys, which is kind of a hilarious gaffe of a GM to say, but it is true.
00:58:15They have nine real guys.
00:58:16So an injury to any of those kind of now you have not a full rotation for a regular season,
00:58:21but you know, fatigue and health and depth is a big thing for them.
00:58:24They just, they really don't have a ton of versatility or flexibility.
00:58:27And then the same thing.
00:58:29If you told me the Nuggets were matching up with the Clippers and then maybe the Suns
00:58:33and then after that, maybe the Mavericks, you know, I would say, you know what?
00:58:36I like that.
00:58:37I think Denver, it's tough, but Denver can do it.
00:58:39If you tell me they're going to play Minnesota and Oklahoma City, you know, back to back
00:58:42and then the Celtics right after that, it's like they can win all of those series, but
00:58:47their odds of winning all three of them is low.
00:58:49And so it's a little bit of a numbers game and health and how they match up.
00:58:53You would like to believe you're matchup proof.
00:58:56Denver is not matchup proof, unfortunately, and there'll be a little matchup dependent.
00:59:00It'll be totally lucky at the end of the year who they get matched up with.
00:59:04Yeah.
00:59:05I think that really the thesis here is there's so much more luck and circumstance than sports
00:59:10fans want to admit in the area, in the era of parody, especially, I don't know if it
00:59:15was always true.
00:59:16I mean, I look the mellow era and Denver lost in the first round a lot.
00:59:19They were the nail, but there's a lot of like three, six matchups that were like, come on,
00:59:23the gap between these two teams is so wide.
00:59:25I just don't think there is that much anymore in a three, six matchup.
00:59:28There's good teams down there.
00:59:29Nope.
00:59:30God, no.
00:59:31A lot of, a lot of good teams and a lot of variants in the way basketball is played.
00:59:36I will say that if the Nuggets win another title and Yoko Chas three MVPs and two titles,
00:59:43some really serious conversations are going to need to be had about where that man fits
00:59:47in NBA history.
00:59:48Because I think, I don't think he gets his flowers enough, but that would be really hard
00:59:52to ignore.
00:59:54Two titles without a single all-star teammate would be absolutely insane.
00:59:59And it's, you know, I just think that's a real thing.
01:00:02It's an underrated thing of all of this that Jamal Murray, as great as he is, not close
01:00:06to an all-star.
01:00:07Like he's not, it's not that he was on the cusp.
01:00:09He's never been close to being an all-star and it's kind of wild.
01:00:12It's very wild.
01:00:13I think Nicole Yoko is just the most exciting basketball player to watch and criminally
01:00:18underrated, but that we could do a whole podcast on why that might be the case.
01:00:22Until then, I'm Adam Harris, the All-NBA Pod and DNVR Sports.
01:00:27Thanks for stopping by the Celtics Lab podcast.
01:00:29And I'll tell you what, if the Celtics and the Nuggets do meet up in the spring, we'll
01:00:33give you a call.
01:00:34Sounds great.
01:00:35Until then, thanks everyone for stopping by and like and subscribe and all that jazz.
01:00:39And we will catch you next week.
01:00:41We've got some real basketball to talk about soon.
01:00:43Adios.