Met Office Thursday Evening Weather Forecast 05/09/2024 -
05 September - National Weather Forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there. Depending on where you are in the UK over the next couple of days, you'll experience
00:05radically different types of weather. Very warm sunshine in some spots, most notably
00:11towards the northwest where summer was largely absent, let's be fair. Whereas towards the
00:17south, closest to this area of low pressure, we'll see some very wet weather. That's already
00:23started across southern and southwestern parts of the country. And that's because we've had
00:28this part of the jet stream cut off from the main flow. It's called a cut-off low.
00:33And when this happens with the main flow being directed away from the UK to the north, well,
00:38it tends to meander around slowly and erratically and it gets stuck. And so the outbreaks of
00:45rain that we've seen arrive through Thursday across the south and southwest will essentially
00:50keep going during Friday and into the weekend. And that means there'll be considerable rainfall
00:56accumulations in places. Not only have we got the low pressure leading to rising air,
01:01but we've got added humidity because of this relatively humid air being carried north across
01:08central Europe into the North Sea and dragged across the UK during Thursday and Friday.
01:14So the humidity, the instability, the rising air leads to a lot of rain basically across
01:19the south and southwest. This shows 48-hour rainfall totals through Thursday and Friday.
01:26There will be ebbs and flows in the rainfall. There'll be pulses of heavier rain at times
01:30and then lighter rain at times as well. So this is just the total through two days. I
01:34wouldn't take the location too literally, but it just shows where we're likely to see
01:3925 or more millimetres of rain through that period. And in some places, 50 to 100 millimetres
01:45or perhaps more. But like I say, I wouldn't take the location of the highest rainfall
01:50totals too literally. It just goes to show the potential. And that's why there's a rainfall
01:54warning in force. There's the risk during the next few days of river flooding, surface
01:59water flooding, transport disruption. A lot of the heavier rain will arrive during the
02:03rush hour of Thursday evening, Friday morning, Friday evening and so on. So best to be vigilant
02:09and pay close attention to the forecast and warnings as they are updated over the next
02:1448 hours or so. The rain does ease away for a time overnight in the south. We keep a lot
02:19of cloud, drizzle, some moderate pulses of rain moving through. But it'll also be cloudy
02:24for eastern parts of the UK. That cloud, the result of a humid easterly wind coming in
02:30from the North Sea. But clear skies for Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, North Wales and
02:34North West England. Whether you've got the clear skies or the cloud overnight, it's going
02:38to be a humid night. Uncomfortable for sleeping in some places, 16 to 18 Celsius typically.
02:44We start off Friday with that warmth, but also with a lot of cloud in the south and
02:50the rain getting its act together once again, turning heavier and more persistent through
02:54the morning, especially to the south of the M4 Corridor. That's where we're likely to
02:59see the wettest weather, the thickest cloud. To the north of that, much brighter skies
03:03across most of the UK. Mid Wales, Midlands, East Anglia, northwards, plenty of sunshine
03:08except for the North Sea coast where we will see some of that mist and low cloud, fret
03:14and har coming and going through the day. Some of it could burn back to the beaches
03:17for a time. So, actually, widespread fine weather for much of the country. Blue skies
03:22for Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West England and North Wales. Yeah, the wind
03:26will be a little bit gusty from time to time, but that won't prevent the temperatures from
03:30reaching 25 to 27 Celsius all the way from Cambridgeshire through the North Midlands
03:35into North Wales, North West England. And for North West Scotland, the potential for
03:3926 or 27 Celsius, and if that happens Friday in Western Scotland, will be the warmest day
03:45of the year so far. The gusty wind, of course, helping to increase those temperatures because
03:50of the fern effect where the wind dries up and warms up as it comes over the mountains
03:56to the east of these locations. And you can see that swathe of warmer than average weather
04:00all the way across central parts of the UK up into the north and north west, with the
04:04exception of those North Sea coasts because of the onshore breeze, and the south where
04:09temperatures will be below average because of the outbreaks of persistent rain. A sharp
04:14gradient between the warm or very warm sunshine and the thick cloud in those outbreaks of
04:20rain. So, if you're near the boundary, well, it could just slightly oscillate between those
04:28two types of weather and there'll be a dramatic difference from one side to the next to take
04:34close notice of. Now, the cloud and outbreaks of rain will move north once again, that boundary
04:40shifting north on Friday evening. Some heavier rain once again into South Wales and then
04:44Mid Wales and the Midlands. But it does ease off overnight once more. Clear spells here
04:49and there. A lot of cloud across the UK but the best clear spells will be towards the
04:52north west and another mild, some might say muggy night and a warm start to the weekend.
04:59The weekend starts off mostly dry actually. Saturday morning likely to be the finest weather
05:04of the weekend. Some sunshine even in the south for a time before once more the cloud
05:10and those outbreaks of showery rain return to southern counties and perhaps into South
05:14Wales later on. Showers also breaking out across the Midlands, East Wales into the north
05:19east. Mostly this will be drizzly, showery stuff. But Cumbria, Western Scotland, Northern
05:25Ireland largely avoiding any showers. Sunny skies and another warm day. Not quite as warm
05:30as Friday but still temperatures reaching 22, 23, 24 Celsius in places. Still feeling
05:36humid but it's going to gradually turn cloudier and less humid. Cooler, you might say, on
05:44Sunday and into Monday. Further outbreaks of showery rain in many places, especially
05:49towards the south.