J&K Election 2024 Exit Polls: Hung Assembly Likely As NC-Cong May Miss Majority Mark

Oneindia

According to the latest exit polls for the 2024 Jammu & Kashmir elections, a hung assembly appears to be the most likely outcome. The National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance may fall short of the majority mark, setting the stage for potential political negotiations and alliances. With key regional parties vying for influence, the political landscape in J&K remains uncertain as voters wait for the final results. Stay tuned for detailed insights and analysis on this developing situation.     #JKElection2024 #JammuKashmirExitPolls #HungAssembly #NCCongAlliance #ElectionResults2024 #JKPolitics #NCCongress #KashmirElections #ExitPollAnalysis #ElectionTrends #JammuAndKashmir #JKVotes2024 #PoliticalScenario #ElectionUpdates #IndianElections2024

Transcript

00:00The verdict of the exit polls of 2024 is that it is going to be a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir.

00:07Well, the numbers are out. The exit polls for 2024 assembly elections have come out for Jammu

00:12and Kashmir and Haryana. Without much ado, let's delve into the initial numbers that we are getting

00:19as far as the exit polls are concerned for the year 2024. Let's hold it here. People's Pulse is

00:26rating agency, the polling agency and out of 90 seats, it is giving NC plus 46 to 50 seats, BJP

00:3323 to 37, PDP 7 to 11 and others are bagging 4 to 6 seats. Now NC plus is National Conference

00:40plus the Congress Party and a few other smaller parties, BJP independently contesting their 23 to

00:4737, not reaching the half a mark. But here, if you take a look here, now People's Pulse for now

00:55is giving somewhere close to the half a mark of 46 in these 90 seats, although five seats are

01:03reserved there. So we are looking at 85 seats. So the contest is there on 85 seats as far as

01:08these voting patterns are concerned. But in subsequent numbers and polling rating agencies,

01:17if you would take a look, then it's being projected as a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir,

01:24whether the PDP will come and join the party with a national conference and Congress remains to be

01:29seen in order to keep the BJP out of equation. That is something that many political pundits

01:35are hedging their bets on. Moving on to the next polling agency, which is Dainik Bhaskar

01:43media group, independent media group coming out with its own numbers, NC plus there you see 35 to

01:5040, not close to the halfway mark, BJP 20 to 25, PDP 4 to 7 and others 12 to 16. It has increased

01:59the number of others but again, it has cut down on the advantage that People's Pulse was showing

02:06for the national conference plus the Congress Alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. So Dainik Bhaskar

02:12not giving any clear majority to any political party pointing to a hung assembly or if there

02:18could be some equations being done from the other side or from the PDP side. Gulistan is another

02:27polling agency which does the number crunching and speaks to the people more than 8 to 10,000

02:36people are normally spoken with. That depends on a sample size also what these companies choose to

02:43go for. Out of the 90 seats, NC plus 31 to 36 is what Gulistan is giving, BJP 28 to 38, PDP 5 to 7

02:52and others 8 to 16 more or less the same figure as Dainik Bhaskar had given no clear majority to

02:58any of the parties again pointing to a hung assembly and more political drama to unfold.

03:05We will have to wait and watch for October 8th and see how the numbers are exactly stacked up.

03:12These are just the exit poll numbers, not the final figure. So I would like to remind the viewers

03:18well the other company rating polling agency India Today and C voter out of the 90 seats NC 40 to 48

03:26well this takes them closer to the halfway mark. PDP 6 to 12, BJP 27 to 32 and others 12 to 16. So

03:36what the loss that is being shown to the PDP has gone to others and at least 5 to 10 seats here

03:43that we saw from other polling agencies and that's why the others figures have gone up.

03:49Why I'm focusing on others because if this majority, if these numbers remain the same

03:55then whether the PDP would want to come and join the NC Congress, whether this alliance especially

04:03National Conference and PDP are opposing parties in Jammu and Kashmir, whether Congress would be

04:09able to the Rahul Gandhi factor, whether he would be able to convince say an Omar Abdullah or Farooq

04:15Abdullah to join hands with Mehbooba Mufti in order to keep the BJP at bay. So that is also

04:24one of the case possibilities that is being looked at. So these are the numbers as of now that we

04:30have for you from four different polling agencies as far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned. The

04:35verdict of the exit polls of 2024 is that it is going to be a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir,

04:42no clear majority. How does the political arithmetic pan out that would be more clearer

04:49after I believe 2 pm on October the 8th when the results for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are out.

04:58All right now moving on to another polling company Metrise which is giving 40 to 48 seats to NC

05:07in NC and the alliance in Jammu and Kashmir 40 to 48, BJP 27 to 32, PDP 6 to 12 and others 6 to 11.

05:16Well once again you would see no clear majority as of now to any political party and whether the

05:23alliance picture will come into play remains to be seen. So this is how all these polling

05:31companies have analysed the results for the exit poll for Jammu and Kashmir. We bring you the

05:36poll of polls which gives you the average of all the samples that we have taken as of now here and

05:42this is how it seems as of now. If you take out all the averages of the 6 to 7 leading polling

05:49companies then out of the 90 seats the poll of polls says that National Conference and Congress

05:54would get 33 to 39 seats, BJP 25 to 33, PDP 4 to 8 and others will get 9 to 15. A sizeable number

06:04going there for the others. Why this is important as of now is giving these numbers or if we consider

06:11plus minus 5 to these numbers then again the picture is clear in Jammu and Kashmir,

06:17no clear majority to any party. It was to a certain extent I would say expected also,

06:22BJP was trying to make inroads in Kashmir, Jammu it had the stronghold whereas the

06:28historical traditional political parties of the National Conference and the PDP

06:33after 10 years of elections might have might have just touched that raw nerve with the people

06:38and could have convinced them to vote for them and not independently for the BJP. Congress there

06:43with the National Conference. These are the numbers as of now. What transpires exactly

06:49would be clear on October 8th when the results are out. Until then keep watching One India.

06:55Don't miss out. Log on to oneindia.com for more updates.

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