日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年10月05日 石破総理の手のひら返し?経済・外交政策を検証

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日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年10月05日 石破総理の手のひら返し?経済・外交政策を検証
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00:00BS Teleto
00:16Good morning.
00:17Good morning.
00:18This is Nikkei Saturday, October 5th.
00:21Let me introduce today's guest.
00:25Mr. Kenji Minemura, Chief Researcher at Canon Global Strategic Research Institute,
00:29who is well-versed in foreign policy and security.
00:32Good morning.
00:33Good morning.
00:35Mr. Joseph Kraft, Economic Analyst.
00:38Nice to meet you.
00:39Nice to meet you.
00:41Mr. Itaru Oishi, Editor-in-Chief of Japan Economic News,
00:44who is covering the political situation in Japan and the United States.
00:47Good morning.
00:48Good morning.
00:49Nice to meet you.
00:51Today, I'm going to talk with these three people.
00:56Let's take a look at the screen.
01:00Here it is.
01:01Is it a production of Prime Minister Ishiba after his inauguration?
01:05Mr. Yamakawa.
01:06Well, it's a bit of an expression.
01:08I feel quite a bit of a blur in the words.
01:12It's under the picture there.
01:14I wonder where the Ishiba color is.
01:19It was a speech on the surface yesterday,
01:22but I can feel it.
01:24I'd like to focus on that today.
01:26It's written as the Kishiba Cabinet.
01:29Well, he said that he would continue the Kishiba administration,
01:33but even so,
01:35I feel that Mr. Ishiba could put out a little more color.
01:41Let's hear from him.
01:43This week, it's on the far left,
01:46but I wonder if Israel has a retaliatory attack on Iran as it is now.
01:52I'm curious about that, too.
01:54And the market.
01:56Let's take a look at the employment statistics for September in the United States, which were announced last night.
02:00The number of unemployed people in the non-agricultural sector,
02:04which shows the situation of the economy,
02:06increased by 254,000 compared to the month before.
02:09It exceeded the market expectations of 140,000 to 150,000 people.
02:15The unemployment rate was 4.1%,
02:17and the market expectations were double.
02:19The average hourly wage was 4% more than a year ago,
02:22which exceeded the market expectations.
02:24According to the employment statistics,
02:26the number of unemployed people in the non-agricultural sector was rapidly declining.
02:29At one time, the number of unemployed people was 149.
02:31It was the first time in about a month,
02:33and the average hourly wage was 70,000 yen,
02:35which was 1 dollar 148 yen,
02:37which was 60,000 to 70,000 yen.
02:39Mr. Kraut, what do you think?
02:41This is strong in all respects.
02:43In other words,
02:45the hard landing scenario of the United States,
02:47the economic principle theory,
02:49has collapsed.
02:51In November,
02:53it was said that the market could be reduced by 0.5%,
02:58but with this data,
03:00there is a possibility that 0.25% will be seen off.
03:06The soft landing scenario is very strong,
03:09and the stock price will rise.
03:11I think that the weekly average of the Japanese economy
03:14will probably rise by about 1,000 yen.
03:17In the case of Japan,
03:19is it because it is becoming cheaper?
03:22Yes, it is mainly because it is cheaper.
03:25However, the fact that the American economy
03:27is not declining more than expected
03:29has little negative impact on the Japanese economy,
03:31so the stock price will be supported by two effects.
03:35I understand.
03:37After this is a special report.
03:39Prime Minister Ishiba has started.
03:41Prime Minister Ishiba,
03:43who is out of touch with his statement after his inauguration.
03:45We will consider the background and whereabouts of the policy.
03:47Ishiba's speech
03:51Security and peace for all people.
03:55Prime Minister Ishiba started his speech
03:58with the words of security and peace.
04:02The first thing he mentioned was the political fund issue.
04:06We will consider the political fund issue
04:09and the situation that has caused the political unrest of the people
04:12with deep reflection.
04:15We will consider the political fund issue.
04:18Regarding the so-called Uragane議員,
04:21which was not included in the political fund report,
04:24when Prime Minister Ishiba made his statement,
04:28he said that the discussion of whether it is appropriate to recognize
04:31should be carried out thoroughly
04:34at the Election Commission.
04:39At this point,
04:41the proposal to recognize Uragane議員 as a principle arose,
04:44and there was a strong voice of resistance from the opposition parties.
04:52As for the economic policy,
04:56In order to prioritize refugees,
05:00we will build an economic system
05:04based on the idea of an economic system.
05:07We will build an economic system that is critical to the crisis.
05:12He emphasized that he would realize a growth-type economy
05:15that would lead to inflation and investment.
05:20He showed the idea of recognition of the Kishida route.
05:27He showed the policy of preparing for the installation of a disaster-prevention tower
05:30in order to double the local government's subsidy
05:33based on the initial budget
05:36and to strengthen the response to the disaster.
05:40He did not mention the creation of the Asia version of NATO
05:44or the revision of the Japan-U.S. regional agreement.
05:48As a whole, it is a form of sealing Ishiba's color.
05:56What did the opposition party say about the initial statement?
06:00It is a very rare initial statement in recent years.
06:05During the presidential election,
06:08there was no specific, passionate statement.
06:12There is no thin fashion.
06:17The color of Ishiba is completely gone.
06:21It has been beautifully discolored.
06:24You can't taste it even if you chew it.
06:26It felt like gum.
06:28It was a lack of content that made us wonder
06:31whether the JCPOA has deteriorated so much.
06:36During the initial statement,
06:38President Ishiba could not fully show his true political stance.
06:46He was supposed to be negative about the disbandment of the presidential election,
06:50but he changed his policy right after winning the presidential election.
06:54It seems that the weak foundation of the party
06:57is being pushed to the party's policy.
07:02This is what happened when he met with the former JCPOA member.
07:08Good luck with the disbandment of Ishiba.
07:10If I do it, I'll be fired.
07:12Don't say that.
07:15If I do it, I'll be fired.
07:19The JCPOA and TV Tokyo's emergency public opinion survey,
07:23which took place on January 1st to 2nd,
07:26showed that President Ishiba's support rate was 51%,
07:30which is lower than the 59% of President Kishida's support rate.
07:37What is the future of the Ishiba administration,
07:39which does not seem to be going well?
07:44We will now look at the true intentions of President Ishiba.
07:48Today, we will look at three themes.
07:51First, where is the Ishiba color going?
07:54First, we will look at the contents of the speech
07:57where President Ishiba gave a speech for the first time.
08:01In the speech, President Ishiba said,
08:03Protect the rules, protect Japan, protect the people, protect the region,
08:08protect young people and women's opportunities.
08:11He said these five things.
08:14As a reflection of President Ishiba's intentions,
08:17he said that he would set up a relationship improvement meeting
08:20for the improvement of the JCPOA,
08:22and that the minimum wage would be 1,500 yen per person
08:26to prepare for the setting up of the disaster zone.
08:28He also talked about local government subsidies and compensation.
08:32On the other hand, he did not discuss the JCPOA and the Asian version of it,
08:39such as selective marriage discrimination,
08:41financial income tax, and strengthening, etc.
08:44First, where did you pay attention to this speech, Mr. Minemura?
08:49First of all, I thought that this downgrade was amazing.
08:54I counted the number of applause,
08:57and there were only about five applause.
09:01And there was a lot of booing.
09:04I couldn't hear it in the middle,
09:06but there was a lot of booing.
09:08This is a symbolic speech of the current Ishiba administration.
09:12It's not very popular within the party,
09:15and it's a symbolic speech of the ruling party.
09:20Normally, the ruling party would have more applause, right?
09:26Yes, there were no more mountains.
09:28Normally, there are two or three mountains,
09:30but this time there were no mountains at all,
09:32and there was a little applause from the local government,
09:36but there were no concrete measures,
09:38so it was a mess.
09:40What about the contents?
09:42The contents are more important than what was said.
09:48For example, the income tax,
09:50and the Asian version of NATO,
09:52when the Ishiba administration was in power,
09:55they didn't have to say,
09:57this is dangerous.
10:00Especially the foreign ministers and officials
10:05didn't have to persuade them to say it.
10:08I think everyone felt that.
10:10Especially Minemura-san,
10:11you're in charge of security,
10:13but this regional agreement and the Asian version of NATO,
10:16was it difficult to say it at this timing?
10:19I think it was already exploding.
10:22After the Ishiba administration was in power,
10:25the Asian version of NATO and the regional agreement,
10:28both the Democratic Party of the United States
10:30and the government said,
10:32what the hell is this?
10:34About 10 people contacted me,
10:38and from China,
10:40what the hell is this Asian version of NATO?
10:43If they really said it,
10:45it would have been a disaster.
10:47I think it was such a destructive word.
10:51What about you, Oishi-san?
10:54At the beginning,
10:56we talked about protecting the rules.
10:58At the end,
10:59we talked about the memories of Watanabe Michio-san.
11:02This is Ishiba-san,
11:05but in the middle,
11:07there is almost no Ishiba color.
11:10Somehow,
11:12since this summer,
11:14for example, Kasumigaseki,
11:16in the fall,
11:17there is a state assembly,
11:19and we have to make a speech for the Prime Minister,
11:21and we have to make a short film
11:23where each minister says,
11:25put this in,
11:27and we brought it without anyone screening it,
11:29and Ishiba-san said,
11:31the speech is ready,
11:33and I said,
11:35can I put Watanabe Michio-san's memories in it?
11:38That's all.
11:41I used to be a reporter for Watanabe Michio-san.
11:45At that time,
11:47Michi-san asked me if I wanted to eat,
11:49and I said,
11:50I brought a young man I was looking forward to,
11:52and Ishiba-san, who had won once,
11:54came there.
11:56So I think Michi-san was really looking forward to it.
11:59By now,
12:00I'm sure he's happy under the grave,
12:03but I want to make those memories stronger.
12:07In other words,
12:08this time,
12:09we're going to disband,
12:10so we don't have a law.
12:12Usually,
12:13there's a little bit of an explanation
12:15of the law that we'll discuss later,
12:17but this time,
12:18we don't need that element,
12:20so in a sense,
12:21it's more like Ishiba-san's story
12:23than a political story.
12:25I think it was good enough to fill it up.
12:29There was a speech
12:31from the general election to the election vote.
12:33At that time,
12:34it seemed like you were talking
12:36a little bit,
12:37but this time,
12:38you didn't have that much time, did you?
12:41Well,
12:42there's a part of me
12:44that doesn't have much of a brain
12:46like a speech writer,
12:48and that's because,
12:49as Mr. Maehara said earlier,
12:51I get angry,
12:52so it's already been done.
12:55That's how I feel.
12:57How about you, Mr. Craft?
12:59Yes,
13:00as you just said,
13:01Shirakeppuri is my first impression,
13:05but from the beginning,
13:07it starts with a praise of Prime Minister Kishida.
13:10Is this a statement for the people,
13:13or is it a comment for Kishida-san?
13:16I was so confused.
13:18I read it again on paper,
13:22but instead of Ishiba Shigeru in the title,
13:25it said Kishida Fumio,
13:27and there was nothing wrong with it.
13:29It was all written by Kishida.
13:33It was only about the construction of the disaster area.
13:36Also,
13:37the local budget is not a lot of money,
13:40so I don't think it's a big deal.
13:42It's very...
13:43From the beginning,
13:45he said he would give the people
13:47the material to judge the election.
13:51I don't think you can judge anything
13:54from this initial statement.
13:58I think Ishiba-san had a lot of expectations,
14:03but he made a mistake in his statement.
14:07Yes,
14:08Ishiba-san made a mistake in his statement
14:10before and after his inauguration.
14:12Regarding the timing of the disbandment,
14:14he said he would disband as soon as possible
14:17after the budget meeting,
14:19but after his inauguration,
14:21without a budget meeting,
14:23he announced the general election policy on October 27th.
14:27Also,
14:28he said it was natural to have a thorough discussion
14:31about the appointment of the vice-chairman.
14:34He said there was nothing set in stone.
14:38And about the anti-Abenomics,
14:40the reimbursement of the Japanese yen,
14:42in an interview with a magazine,
14:44he said,
14:45I'm the only one who can say this
14:47because it's a rejection of the Abenomics,
14:50but personally,
14:51I don't think it's in an environment
14:53where additional reimbursements are needed.
14:57Also,
14:58regarding the disbandment of health insurance,
15:00he said,
15:01if there are people who don't agree,
15:03it's a good idea to disband,
15:05but after his inauguration,
15:07he instructed the Minister of Health and Labor
15:09to promote the use of minor health insurance.
15:11Mr. Oishi,
15:12it may be difficult to say
15:14if you are in favor of the government,
15:17but even so,
15:18I think a lot of statements have changed.
15:21What do you think about this?
15:23Regarding the schedule of the JCPOA,
15:27to be honest,
15:29even though the JCPOA was in motion
15:31with the assumption that
15:33Mr. Ishiba would win,
15:35Mr. Ishiba was chosen
15:37unexpectedly.
15:39That's how I feel.
15:41To be honest,
15:43if Mr. Koizumi wins,
15:45if the JCPOA goes with Mr. Koizumi's schedule,
15:47to put it the other way around,
15:49Mr. Koizumi will immediately disband
15:51as soon as the JCPOA is in motion.
15:53That's what he said.
15:55He has already started running,
15:57but he said that
15:59it would be a problem
16:01if the JCPOA changes
16:03in a word.
16:05Even so,
16:07even if the Chief of Staff Moriyama
16:09persuaded him,
16:11even at the time of the JCPOA discussion,
16:13there were discussions
16:15in the head office
16:17and the budget committee,
16:19so at least at the time of the disbandment,
16:21I think it would be good
16:23if Mr. Koizumi could
16:25stick to his own will.
16:27Why can't he do that?
16:29To put it in a bad way,
16:31I have the impression
16:33that becoming the Prime Minister
16:35was the purpose of Mr. Koizumi.
16:37Normally, it is said that
16:39becoming the Prime Minister
16:41is either a purpose or a means.
16:43There is a place where
16:45Mr. Koizumi aims for.
16:47I have the impression
16:49that Mr. Koizumi was a person
16:51who could just
16:53get on the ship
16:55that he was already on.
16:57That's a pretty tough opinion.
16:59How about you, Mr. Kraft?
17:01I have the impression
17:03that Mr. Kraft has been
17:05talking about the JCPOA
17:07for many years,
17:09and he is facing the reality
17:11that it won't work
17:13if he becomes
17:15the Prime Minister.
17:17Even so,
17:19politicians often
17:21adjust their ideas
17:23or policies,
17:25but I don't remember
17:27a 180-degree change
17:29until now.
17:31In the end,
17:33strategically and objectively,
17:39I don't think he thought
17:41about the administration of the government.
17:43If he is forced to fight
17:45a very tough battle
17:47in the election,
17:49and if the foundation
17:51of the administration
17:53is shaken,
17:55it may not even become
17:57a single-party government.
17:59I don't know how far
18:01he has been thinking about it.
18:03Mr. Minemura is nodding
18:05next to you.
18:07As Mr. Kraft said,
18:09what was the JCPOA
18:11for Mr. Ishiba?
18:13The JCPOA has a long history,
18:15and Mr. Ishiba said
18:17that he wanted to fight
18:19the administration
18:21of the government
18:23with the ruling party.
18:25Mr. Ishiba,
18:27I think you voted
18:29with the expectation
18:31that Mr. Ishiba would
18:33reform the JCPOA.
18:35What was the JCPOA
18:37for Mr. Ishiba?
18:39Mr. Ishiba,
18:41I was impressed
18:43by the JCPOA.
18:45Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Maehara
18:47were talking about
18:49the JCPOA,
18:51and Mr. Ishiba said
18:53that the JCPOA would
18:55get angry at the party.
18:57I think this is a symbolic
18:59word, and I think
19:01that the JCPOA
19:03has a new form
19:05that the party
19:07and Mr. Ishiba
19:09focused on the administration
19:11at the time.
19:13I don't think
19:15Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Maehara
19:17are in a relationship.
19:19As Mr. Kraft said,
19:21I think Mr. Ishiba
19:23and Mr. Maehara
19:25are taking a risk
19:27that Mr. Ishiba
19:29and Mr. Maehara
19:31will win the next election.
19:33Mr. Kraft,
19:35we think that
19:37such a turn of events
19:39will affect the election,
19:41but is it still better
19:43to have a JCPOA on the 27th?
19:45Is that what you're saying?
19:47In various judgments this time,
19:49even if it's not
19:51Mr. Ishiba,
19:53if someone is looking at
19:55everything and making
19:57various strategic judgments
19:59and has a sense of unity,
20:01even if Mr. Ishiba dies,
20:03he's still moving as a party.
20:05Mr. Moriyama can see
20:07the colors here in some parts,
20:09Mr. Kishida can see them here,
20:11Mr. Suga can see them,
20:13but he can't see
20:15everyone united.
20:17That's why they're moving
20:19in different ways.
20:21I think it's very dangerous.
20:23Until now, the JCPOA was bad,
20:25so there were various problems.
20:27Mr. Ishiba was trying to erase
20:29the JCPOA,
20:31but in the end,
20:33if it's painted in the colors of the people,
20:35it's dangerous.
20:37Let's take a look at the JCPOA.
20:39This is the face of the Ishiba Cabinet.
20:41Out of 20 people,
20:4313 are first-timers.
20:45The average age is 63 years old.
20:47Mr. Ishiba was the one
20:49who had the most votes,
20:51and 11 were unvoted.
20:53Mr. Ishiba's candidate,
20:556 members are first-timers.
20:57Among them,
20:594 experienced people
21:01stand out.
21:03And 2 women.
21:05Let's take a look
21:07at the JCPOA.
21:09Mr. Moriyama,
21:11Mr. Koizumi,
21:13Mr. Takaichi,
21:15Mr. Suga,
21:17Mr. Asou,
21:19Mr. Asou,
21:21Mr. Asou,
21:23Mr. Asou,
21:25Mr. Asou,
21:27Mr. Asou,
21:29Mr. Asou,
21:31Mr. Asou,
21:33Mr. Asou,
21:35Mr. Asou,
21:37Mr. Asou,
21:39Mr. Asou,
21:41Mr. Asou,
21:43Mr. Asou,
21:45Mr. Asou,
21:47Mr. Asou,
21:49Mr. Asou,
21:51Mr. Asou,
21:53Mr. Asou,
21:55Mr. Asou,
21:57Mr. Asou,
21:59Mr. Asou,
22:01Mr. Asou,
22:03Mr. Asou,
22:05Mr. Asou,
22:07Mr. Asou,
22:09Mr. Asou,
22:11Mr. Asou,
22:13Mr. Asou,
22:15Mr. Asou,
22:17Mr. Asou,
22:19Mr. Asou,
22:21Mr. Asou,
22:23Mr. Asou,
22:25Mr. Asou,
22:27Mr. Asou,
22:29Mr. Asou,
22:31Mr. Asou,
22:33Mr. Asou,
22:35Mr. Asou,
22:37Mr. Asou,
22:39Mr. Asou,
22:41Mr. Asou,
22:43Mr. Asou,
22:45Mr. Asou,
22:47Mr. Asou,
22:49Mr. Asou,
22:51Mr. Asou,
22:53Mr. Asou,
22:55Mr. Asou,
22:57Mr. Asou,
22:59Mr. Asou,
23:01Mr. Asou,
23:03Mr. Asou,
23:05Mr. Asou,
23:07Mr. Asou,
23:09Mr. Asou,
23:11Mr. Asou,
23:13Mr. Asou,
23:15Mr. Asou,
23:17Mr. Asou,
23:19Mr. Asou,
23:21Mr. Asou,
23:23Mr. Asou,
23:25Mr. Asou,
23:27Mr. Asou,
23:29Mr. Asou,
23:31Mr. Asou,
23:33Mr. Asou,
23:35Mr. Asou,
23:37Mr. Asou,
23:39Mr. Asou,
23:41Mr. Asou,
23:43Mr. Asou,
23:45Mr. Asou,
23:47Mr. Asou,
23:49Mr. Asou,
23:51Mr. Asou,
23:53Mr. Asou,
23:55Mr. Asou,
23:57Mr. Asou,
23:59Mr. Asou,
24:01Mr. Asou,
24:03Mr. Asou,
24:05Mr. Asou,
24:07Mr. Asou,
24:09Mr. Asou,
24:11Mr. Asou,
24:13Mr. Asou,
24:15Mr. Asou,
24:17Mr. Asou,
24:19Mr. Asou,
24:21Mr. Asou,
24:23Mr. Asou,
24:25Mr. Asou,
24:27Mr. Asou,
24:29Mr. Asou,
24:31Mr. Asou,
24:33Mr. Asou,
24:35Mr. Asou,
24:37Mr. Asou,
24:39Mr. Asou,
24:41Mr. Asou,
24:43Mr. Asou,
24:45Mr. Asou,
24:47Mr. Asou,
24:49Mr. Asou,
24:51Mr. Asou,
24:53Mr. Asou,
24:55Mr. Asou,
24:57Mr. Asou,
24:59Mr. Asou,
25:01Mr. Asou,
25:03Mr. Asou,
25:05Mr. Asou,
25:07Mr. Asou,
25:09Mr. Asou,
25:11Mr. Asou,
25:13Mr. Asou,
25:15Mr. Asou,
25:17Mr. Asou,
25:19Mr. Asou,
25:21Mr. Asou,
25:23Mr. Asou,
25:25Mr. Asou,
25:27Mr. Asou,
25:29Mr. Asou,
25:31Mr. Asou,
25:33Mr. Asou,
25:35Mr. Asou,
25:37Mr. Asou,
25:39Mr. Asou,
25:41Mr. Asou,
25:43Mr. Asou,
25:45Mr. Asou,
25:47Mr. Asou,
25:49Mr. Asou,
25:51Mr. Asou,
25:53Mr. Asou,
25:55Mr. Asou,
25:57Mr. Asou,
25:59Mr. Asou,
26:01Mr. Asou,
26:03Mr. Asou,
26:05Mr. Asou,
26:07Mr. Asou,
26:09Mr. Asou,
26:11Mr. Asou,
26:13Mr. Asou,
26:15Mr. Asou,
26:17Mr. Asou,
26:19Mr. Asou,
26:21Mr. Asou,
26:23Mr. Asou,
26:25Mr. Asou,
26:27Mr. Asou,
26:29Mr. Asou,
26:31Mr. Asou,
26:33Mr. Asou,
26:35Mr. Asou,
26:37Mr. Asou,
26:39Mr. Asou,
26:41Mr. Asou,
26:43Mr. Asou,
26:45Mr. Asou,
26:47Mr. Asou,
26:49Mr. Asou,
26:51Mr. Asou,
26:53Mr. Asou,
26:55Mr. Asou,
26:57Mr. Asou,
26:59Mr. Asou,
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