日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年8月31日 誰が勝ち抜く総裁選 経済・外交政策を検証
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00:00This interview was recorded on the 31st of August.
00:10Good morning.
00:11I'm Nikkei Satade, your reporter for the day.
00:15Let me introduce our guest for today.
00:18Our political analyst, Mr. Ito Atsuo.
00:21Thank you for joining us.
00:23Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at the University of Hosei, specializing in modern political analysis.
00:29Thank you for joining us.
00:30Thank you for having me.
00:31And Mr. Itaru Oishi, editor-in-chief of the Japan Economic News,
00:35who has been covering the JCPOA for many years.
00:37Thank you for joining us.
00:38Thank you for having me.
00:39Looking at the faces of these three,
00:41I'm sure you can guess what today's topic is.
00:44First, I'd like to introduce today's topic.
00:47Here it is.
00:49It's written in big letters.
00:51Analysts analyze the JCPOA.
00:54That's right.
00:55We're starting to see the face of the JCPOA candidates.
01:01It's time to see what the latest developments are going to look like.
01:06And we're starting to see the quality of the JCPOA candidates.
01:13Today, I'd like to go into the details of the JCPOA election.
01:19Okay.
01:20First, I'd like to tell you about the Typhoon No. 10.
01:24According to the Meteorological Agency,
01:26the Typhoon No. 10 is expected to pass through Shikoku today and approach Kinki.
01:30Although the force is declining,
01:32there is a possibility that a landslide will occur in Kinki and Tokai this morning
01:36due to the impact of the war.
01:41Typhoon No. 10 is expected to weaken the force of the typhoon and move westward to the east at low speed.
01:46It is also expected to turn into a tropical low pressure tomorrow.
01:49Typhoon No. 10 is expected to continue for two days due to the impact of the typhoon and the war.
01:54The Meteorological Agency is warning of landslides and volcanic eruptions.
02:00Typhoon No. 10 is moving at a very slow pace.
02:04Please be careful of landslides and volcanic eruptions as it contains a lot of water.
02:09Please stay away from dangerous places during the weekend.
02:13Now, let's move on to a special report.
02:15We will analyze the whereabouts of the Kansai Line of the People's Party of Japan as an expert.
02:24The Kansai Line of the People's Party of Japan, which is likely to become a Kansai Line that has never seen an example in the past.
02:29I grew up in an ordinary salaryman's family.
02:34Regardless of the division, the People's Party of Japan, which is standing here now,
02:41is a symbol of trying to change seriously.
02:47As the last battle, I will go back to the origin and ask for your guidance with all my heart and soul.
02:57Protect the rules.
02:59Politics that is trusted by the people.
03:03Protect Japan.
03:05And protect the people.
03:09Protect the region.
03:12And protect the future.
03:15In order to overcome this adversity, I, Kono Taro, will take advantage of my experience so far
03:21and move this country forward as a leader of Japan.
03:29Until the 31st, Kobayashi, the Minister in charge of all economic security,
03:34Ishiba, the former director-general,
03:38and Kono, the Minister of Digital Affairs, made their appearance.
03:42After next week, Hayashi, the Minister of Public Works, and Motegi, the Minister of Public Affairs,
03:47and Koizumi, the Minister of Environment,
03:51who was nominated as the person suitable for the current public opinion survey.
03:56In addition, Takaichi, the Minister in charge of economic security,
04:00and Kato, the former Minister of Public Works, also made their appearance.
04:06In addition, Mr. Aoyama, Mr. Kamikawa, Mr. Saito, and Mr. Noda also made their appearance.
04:13We are looking forward to seeing how many people will make their appearance in the end.
04:20One of the focus of this general election is the response to the back-bone issue.
04:29On the 27th, Mr. Kobayashi recognized the need for a strict application of the Reform Policy.
04:39On the 24th, Mr. Ishiba said,
04:44I want to be a politician who follows the rules.
04:47I'm not a politician for money.
04:50I'm not a politician for politicians.
04:53He said that we should thoroughly discuss whether he is suitable for the current public opinion survey.
05:02However, he also said that we should decide based on the current situation.
05:06We should not be careless about the people who are not elected yet.
05:12Mr. Kono also said,
05:15I think it would be better for us to reduce the number of people who are not elected.
05:29He expressed his opinion, but there is also a voice of opposition from within the party.
05:36In order to win the general election, what is the response to the back-bone issue chosen by each candidate?
05:45Also, this time it is said that it is a general election without a majority,
05:49Mr. Kono will leave as a member of the Aso faction, which is the only one in the party.
05:56Mr. Aso says that he will not be bound by the majority, but how will this affect the result?
06:04On the other hand, the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party, which will be held at the same time, has also begun.
06:12On the 21st, all the representatives of the branch officially announced their candidacy.
06:20On the 26th, Mr. Izumi, who was asked to be a candidate by local mayors of Yushino, also showed interest in the re-election.
06:28On the 29th, Prime Minister Noda also officially announced his candidacy.
06:36On the 23rd, Mr. Noda attended as a lecturer at the Japan-Yushin Association,
06:42and on the next election, he will be a member of the Aso faction,
06:48which is the only one in the party.
06:53On the 23rd, Mr. Noda attended as a lecturer at the Japan-Yushin Association,
06:59and on the next election, he will be a member of the Aso faction,
07:05and on the next election, he will be a member of the Aso faction,
07:11and on the next election, he will be a member of the Aso faction,
07:17What are your plans?
07:24Today, we will talk about three important issues.
07:29First of all, these are who theira candidates are.
07:33First about the dates of the presidential election.
07:36The presidential election of ?knowing of Kichida-sousai's popularity was announced on September 12th.
07:4120 candidates will be able to run for office.
07:44During the 15-day election period,
07:46speeches and debates will be held all over the country.
07:50The Tokyo Olympics will be held on the 27th.
07:52After that, the Prime Minister will be appointed to the National Assembly,
07:55and a new government will be born after the election.
07:59And here is a sneak peek at the presidential election.
08:04For now,
08:05Kobayashi Takayuki, former Minister of Economic Security and Insurance,
08:09Ishiba Shigeru, former Cabinet Secretary,
08:11and Kono Taro, former Minister of Digital Affairs,
08:13will be running for office.
08:14And next week,
08:16Yoshimasa Hayashi, Cabinet Secretary,
08:18will run for office on the 3rd.
08:19Toshimitsu Motegi, Cabinet Secretary,
08:21will run for office on the 4th.
08:22Shinji Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment,
08:24will run for office on the 6th.
08:25Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security and Insurance,
08:27will run for office on the 9th.
08:29Katsunobu Kato, former Cabinet Secretary,
08:31will run for office on the 10th.
09:01There is also the issue of decision-making.
09:05Mr. Ito, what do you think of this move,
09:09including the face-to-face meetings so far?
09:12There are no examples in the past
09:15where a large number of candidates have raised their hands.
09:18I think there are two reasons.
09:22One is that the Prime Minister Kishida
09:26has declared that he will not run for office.
09:28If he does not run for office,
09:30it will make it easier for people in the government
09:33and other ministries to raise their hands.
09:35Another reason is that,
09:37as the water level has been rising again,
09:40the pressure has been relieved on the surface.
09:46The pressure has been loosened.
09:48I think these two are the big factors.
09:52Mr. Ito, you have categorized the candidates
09:57into four categories.
10:00What does this mean?
10:02There are too many candidates,
10:04so I thought I might as well categorize them.
10:08The first and last category
10:10is a matter of age.
10:12If the next presidential election is very popular,
10:15everyone will be in their 70s.
10:17Some people may be older than Mr. Kishida.
10:21If we miss this opportunity,
10:23it will be difficult for the next presidential election.
10:27The next category is a matter of age.
10:31There are two young people.
10:33I always get caught up in the word age.
10:37It's not age.
10:39I think it's better to use kanji.
10:42I always get caught up in that.
10:45Age is not the only category.
10:47That's right.
10:49The third category is a matter of age.
10:52We have to show our presence.
10:54It may be difficult this time,
10:56but we want to show our presence.
10:59Or we want to connect to the future.
11:03The last category is a matter of age.
11:06We've had several presidential elections.
11:10If we miss this opportunity,
11:13it will be difficult for the next presidential election.
11:18I categorized them into four categories.
11:21The person on the top left,
11:23the first and last person,
11:25is there a chance that the next person will be elected?
11:29I think there is a possibility.
11:31If it ends within a year or so,
11:35there is still a possibility.
11:37Mr. Shiratori, what do you think?
11:40In this presidential election,
11:43it's important to show your presence.
11:45Mr. Ito just said kanji.
11:47I think it's important.
11:49I think it's important to show your presence.
11:56There are three categories.
11:59The first one is to choose someone
12:01who is further away from the Kishida administration.
12:04The second category is probably gender.
12:06If you become a female president or prime minister,
12:09you will have a sense of belonging.
12:11The third category, as Mr. Ito said,
12:15is generation and age.
12:20If you look at it this way,
12:22I think the keyword this time is
12:26that we have to show that the JIP has changed.
12:28Even if it's just a feeling.
12:30I think that's the keyword this time.
12:34One of the causes of the increase in the number of people
12:36is generational change.
12:39In a way, this time,
12:42Prime Minister Abe passed away
12:45and it was the first presidential election.
12:49Since 2012,
12:52the Abe administration, the Suga administration,
12:55Mr. Abe, Mr. Suga, and Mr. Kishida,
12:59I have the impression that the same people have continued
13:02for about 10 years.
13:05Now that Prime Minister Abe is gone,
13:08it feels like the next generation has come.
13:12I think there are a lot of parts where everyone
13:15raised their names at once.
13:17So what's going to happen?
13:19First of all, let's review the structure of the general election.
13:22Here's how to choose a general election.
13:26The number of members of the National Assembly
13:30excluding the chairman of the House of Representatives
13:32and members of the House of Representatives
13:34who are suspended from voting is 367 as of the 20th.
13:36Members of the House of Representatives
13:38and members of the House of Representatives
13:40are suspended from voting by 367 votes,
13:42which is a total of 734 votes.
13:44First of all, if there is a candidate
13:47with a single majority of 368 votes
13:50in the first round of voting,
13:52that person will be admitted to the general election.
13:54If neither candidate reaches the majority,
13:56the two top candidates will have a decisive vote.
13:59In the decisive vote, the number of members of the National Assembly is 367,
14:03and in the first round of voting,
14:05the number of members of the House of Representatives
14:07is 47, which is a total of 414 votes.
14:09Compared to the first round of voting,
14:11the number of members of the House of Representatives
14:13is higher.
14:15So the first round of voting
14:17and the decisive vote
14:19are different ways of fighting.
14:21In the decisive vote,
14:23the number of members of the House of Representatives
14:25will be higher.
14:27And this time,
14:29the more candidates there are,
14:31there will be at least 20 members of the House of Representatives.
14:33So in the second round of voting,
14:35it will be difficult for someone
14:37to reach the majority
14:39in the first round of voting,
14:41and the possibility of a decisive vote
14:43will increase.
14:45What do you think about that?
14:47I think it's common sense.
14:49So the possibility of a decisive vote is high.
14:51In today's system,
14:53the House of Representatives
14:55and the House of Representatives
14:57have the same number of members.
14:59But in the second round of voting,
15:01you don't know how many members
15:03there are in each district.
15:05So the House of Representatives
15:07will also have the same number of members.
15:09Even if you don't have much time
15:11to go to the decisive vote,
15:13you will know how many members
15:15there are in each district.
15:17So you will know
15:19how many members
15:21there are in each district
15:23in the first round of voting.
15:25Yes, the House of Representatives
15:27will have the same number of members.
15:29But in the second round of voting,
15:31the House of Representatives
15:33will also have the same number of members.
15:35But in the second round of voting,
15:37the House of Representatives
15:39will also have the same number of members.
15:41But in the second round of voting,
15:43the House of Representatives
15:45will also have the same number of members.
15:47But in the second round of voting,
15:49the House of Representatives
15:51will also have the same number of members.
15:53But in the second round of voting,
15:55the House of Representatives
15:57will also have the same number of members.
15:59But in the second round of voting,
16:01the House of Representatives
16:03will also have the same number of members.
16:05But in the second round of voting,
16:07the House of Representatives
16:09will also have the same number of members.
16:11But in the second round of voting,
16:13the House of Representatives
16:15will also have the same number of members.
16:17But in the second round of voting,
16:19the House of Representatives
16:21will also have the same number of members.
16:23In the second round of voting,
16:25the House of Representatives
16:27will also have the same number of members.
16:29But in the second round of voting,
16:31the House of Representatives
16:33will also have the same number of members.
16:35But in the second round of voting,
16:37the House of Representatives
16:39will also have the same number of members.
16:41But in the second round of voting,
16:43the House of Representatives
16:45will also have the same number of members.
16:47But in the second round of voting,
16:49the House of Representatives
16:51will also have the same number of members.
16:53But in the second round of voting,
16:55the House of Representatives
16:57will also have the same number of members.
16:59But in the second round of voting,
17:01the House of Representatives
17:03will also have the same number of members.
17:05But in the second round of voting,
17:07the House of Representatives
17:09will also have the same number of members.
17:11But in the second round of voting,
17:13the House of Representatives
17:15will also have the same number of members.
17:17But in the second round of voting,
17:19the House of Representatives
17:21will also have the same number of members.
17:23But in the second round of voting,
17:25the House of Representatives
17:27will also have the same number of members.
17:29But in the second round of voting,
17:31the House of Representatives
17:33will also have the same number of members.
17:35But in the second round of voting,
17:37the House of Representatives
17:39will also have the same number of members.
17:41But in the second round of voting,
17:43the House of Representatives
17:45will also have the same number of members.
17:47But in the second round of voting,
17:49the House of Representatives
17:51will also have the same number of members.
17:53But in the second round of voting,
17:55the House of Representatives
17:57will also have the same number of members.
17:59But in the second round of voting,
18:01the House of Representatives
18:03will also have the same number of members.
18:05But in the second round of voting,
18:07the House of Representatives
18:09will also have the same number of members.
18:11But in the second round of voting,
18:13the House of Representatives
18:15will also have the same number of members.
18:17But in the second round of voting,
18:19the House of Representatives
18:21will also have the same number of members.
18:23But in the second round of voting,
18:25the House of Representatives
18:27will also have the same number of members.
18:29But in the second round of voting,
18:31the House of Representatives
18:33will also have the same number of members.
18:35But in the second round of voting,
18:37the House of Representatives
18:39will also have the same number of members.
18:41But in the second round of voting,
18:43there is always a說
18:45The result will always depend on
18:47either the result of
18:49the House or member votes
18:51that will win.
18:55If there is a difference,
18:57it's hard to predict
18:59who will win
19:01With this current situation,
19:03it is highly likely that
19:05Koizumi's decision
19:07in the first round of voting
19:09will win.
19:11Do you think there is an advantage in supporting the JCPOA?
19:17Strictly speaking, the people who supported the JCPOA and the people who are eligible to vote for the JCPOA are not equal.
19:27So there is a slight difference.
19:29However, there are already rumors that Mr. Koizumi has a lot of supporters.
19:39Based on that, I think it's pretty credible that the members of the committee are saying that Mr. Koizumi is quite advantageous in the first round.
19:49How about you, Mr. Shiratori?
19:51After all, in the first round of voting, it is decided who will advance to the final vote.
19:57Mr. Koizumi probably thought that the JCPOA would be a generation change.
20:04If Mr. Takahashi remains, gender is also important.
20:08First of all, the female prime minister.
20:10As for Mr. Ishiba, Mr. Kishida's support rate was low.
20:16Mr. Kishida's support rate was the lowest.
20:19Mr. Kishida's support rate was the lowest.
20:23Mr. Kishida's support rate was the lowest.
20:28In that respect, I think it will be very important to decide who will remain among the three.
20:35And as another factor, I think that the JCPOA will basically be resolved except for the Asoha.
20:44But I think there is still some influence.
20:48Here is a simple diagram.
20:50From the current chairman of the JCPOA, Mr. Kishida, Mr. Hayashi and Mr. Kamikawa.
20:57From the Asoha, Mr. Kono.
20:59From the former Motegi faction, Mr. Motegi and Mr. Kato.
21:02From the former Nikai faction, Mr. Kobayashi.
21:04From the former Ishiba group, Mr. Ishiba.
21:07Mr. Koizumi is pushing for a gathering of non-discrimination senators close to Prime Minister Sugamoto.
21:12In the conventional JCPOA, candidates came out for each faction and fought.
21:16This time, it is said that the situation will change.
21:20Mr. Ito, how much will this affect you, and where will you pay attention to?
21:26As the JCPOA approaches, the movement of each old faction has begun to stand out considerably.
21:35And in the end, if there is an election, there is a good chance that the old factions will come together.
21:42Especially in the election.
21:44Mr. Asoha doesn't seem to be so focused on the primary vote.
21:50But when it comes to the election, you're thinking about one lump.
21:53That's right. And on the other hand, the existence of the Abe faction, which was supposed to have split up,
22:00On the contrary, it has become quite large in this general election.
22:05For example, the old Abe faction has the image of being a backdoor.
22:13There are quite a few candidates who think that the Abe faction should not be turned against
22:20In that sense, the old faction is actually still alive.
22:25It's not exactly the same as the old faction, but it's still alive.
22:31The faction is a strange way of saying it, but I don't think it's going to die.
22:37Because any organization has a faction or a group.
22:41In the old days, Mr. Masayoshi Ohira said,
22:45So I don't think it's going to die.
22:47When those people face this kind of situation,
22:50There is a possibility that the movement to gather as a comrade will deepen.
22:55I don't think the influence of the faction has disappeared yet.
22:59I feel like it's becoming more and more presentable.
23:02Mr. Koizumi, for example,
23:04I don't think it's going to disappear yet.
23:07I feel like it's becoming more and more presentable.
23:10For example, one of the reasons why Mr. Koizumi is so advantageous now is that
23:16There is a group of young people who are looking forward to it.
23:21Another thing is that this time,
23:24Prime Minister Sugamae is said to be Koizumi's favorite.
23:29Then Mr. Suga's place wasn't a faction.
23:34While saying that it was a non-faction,
23:36There was a so-called Suga group of about a dozen people.
23:43I think this vote is almost on Mr. Koizumi.
23:48It seems to have a considerable influence.
23:51Because of that, everyone is more and more flowing to Koizumi.
23:56After all, how do you make a lump of votes?
24:00In the end, the lump that originally existed,
24:03It's like a so-called faction.
24:05After all, it is now in a form that is easy to exert influence.
24:09Mr. Kobayashi's place is also a so-called former Abe faction.
24:12There are almost half of them.
24:14After all, it is quite active in a lump of old factions.
24:19Especially when it comes to the final vote,
24:22Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi is one of the two.
24:25When it comes to taking quite a lot of local votes,
24:28Then, in other places, it's quite a faction.
24:32Is there a possibility that it will move like riding a horse?
24:36That's right.
24:37For example, the old Kishida faction is seen to be able to exert influence.
24:43This is the faction that said it would disband the faction first.
24:47This time, it's almost in a lump.
24:50It's not that the factions are split because there are two people.
24:55In the faction, Mr. Hayashi is the so-called former president of Koga.
24:59The people who are close to Mr. Kishida now are like Mr. Kamikawa.
25:02On the contrary, there is a feeling that two people are standing up on purpose to defend the organization.
25:08In the end, around yesterday, in this faction,
25:11At the end, everyone said, let's do it together.
25:17Then, whether or not to move 46 votes in the final vote is a considerable influence.
25:23The Kishida faction is likely to be the strongest lump in the final vote.
25:28That's right.
25:30Mr. Shiratori, what do you think?
25:32Yes, so maybe this was a faction-free general election.
25:36In the end, I think it will end in the form of a faction revival general election or a faction reorganization general election.
25:46Is the reorganization a new Suga group?
25:50Or is it a group of young people like Mr. Fukuda and others who are pushing Mr. Kobayashi now?
25:57Is it like a new birth?
25:59I think there are aspects like that.
26:02Basically, I think that the division of the old faction will be once again,
26:06or that the division from there will be a different movement.
26:15However, if that happens,
26:17Certainly, there were so many candidates in this faction-free general election.
26:22But in the end, including the final vote,
26:24In the end, it will be decided by the faction.
26:27If it becomes like that,
26:29Even if you try to create a sense of innovation,
26:32How far will it be transmitted to the people?
26:35I think it will be like that.
26:38After the commercial, we will think about how the issue of politics and money will affect the general election.
26:50The next theme is here.
26:52What will happen to the back-money issue and the economy?
26:55First, let's look back at the remarks on the back-money issue.
26:58There is a difference between the strong and the weak among the candidates.
27:04First, Mr. Ishiba, as a candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party,
27:07He suggests that it should be thoroughly discussed whether it is appropriate or not.
27:13Mr. Noda,
27:14It is a statement with the premise that those who have back-money will not win the election on their own.
27:19Mr. Kono,
27:20It is a recognition that the back-money issue will be eliminated by the conversion of the same amount of money.
27:25Mr. Motegi,
27:26Mr. Koizumi,
27:42I divided the gradation like this.
27:45In particular, those who say that it is a conversion,
27:49In addition, it is said that it should be denied in the next election.
27:55What do you think, Mr. Ito?
27:57In the case of Mr. Ishiba, the statement has already been toned down.
28:02Mr. Noda has made it clear.
28:05But in the total, everyone is in a dilemma.
28:09For example, the reason why the Prime Minister, Mr. Kishida, declared that he would not run for president is
28:16Because the response to the back-money issue and the people is too loose.
28:20I think there is a big reason why the criticism of the people has increased.
28:25If so, what should we do?
28:29After all, we have to go back to the origin and come up with a radical reform plan.
28:37If we don't move in the direction of implementing it, we shouldn't be able to do it.
28:41However, everyone is talking about post-processing as the problem is over.
28:48Do the people really agree with that?
28:53Or, as soon as Mr. Kono said that it was a conversion of the same amount as the back-money issue,
29:00There is a report that criticism has come out of the old Abe faction.
29:04If it's true, I don't think it's a good idea to take it as if it's not reflected at all.
29:11I feel that other people are focusing on the abstract theory on this issue.
29:16Including other people, I wonder if they know what is really pushing political distrust from the people.
29:26There are some points where I'm a little puzzled.
29:29Mr. Shiratori, the issue of politics and money is very important, but I'd like to make it ambiguous.
29:37I'm doing a general election, but from the point of view of the people, I'm doing a prime ministerial election.
29:45As a citizen, I want you to be strict on the issue of politics and money.
29:49However, if you are too strict, you will be quite strict after the general election.
30:06In a sense, I think it's one of the key points to determine how strict you can be on politics and money.
30:21Mr. Shiratori, you said that the way of voting and the way of fighting are different.
30:26But if you don't stay in two people, you can't win.
30:29In order to stay in two people, you have to be very conscious of the people.
30:34I think it would be better to make a strict statement about this political reform.
30:39But I'm a little puzzled that everyone thinks about the election and makes a statement.
30:48I think that's the limit of the People's Party.
30:54In other words, I'd like to change the cover and make it look like a press release.
30:58But in reality, it's all about the press release.
31:01Or, considering the votes of the last election vote that the members of the National Assembly will cast,
31:07it will inevitably be toned down.
31:11I think we have to do what Mr. Ito just said.
31:16Mr. Oishi, what do you think?
31:18In order to get a member's vote, there are about 100 members of the House of Representatives who can influence only the members of the House of Representatives.
31:27So I don't think we can get a large number of members of the House of Representatives by turning this around.
31:34On the other hand, the People's Party is naturally thinking about the next step.
31:40It's naturally thinking about the House of Representatives election.
31:43It's not just about the general election.
31:45If the People's Party's theory is the basis for the election,
31:53I think it's disadvantageous.
31:55Some people are strict and some people are loose.
32:00It's like, there's a certain range.
32:05I don't think it's a figure of speech.
32:07This person is a little strict.
32:10This person is a little loose.
32:12I think everyone is somehow thinking that it would be more convenient for the People's Party to have a gradation.
32:20But Mr. Oishi, according to Mr. Ito, everyone is loose.
32:27Mr. Oishi, when Shinjiro Koizumi makes his speech,
32:33I'm sure he'll be asked about his stance.
32:36What kind of statement will he make?
32:38What kind of position will he be in?
32:40In the end, Mr. Suga is actually saying something strict.
32:48I think we'll talk about it in the near future.
32:53I don't think I'd say that if I were to say something like an unauthorized person.
32:59After all, he's the one who's most likely to go to the final vote.
33:03Is that what you mean by being more conscious?
33:06No, even if you say something a little strict,
33:08I feel like I can move on to the final vote.
33:12I'm sure you'll say it's a little strict.
33:14I think we'll calm down by talking about whether or not we'll implement it in the end.
33:19I'm sure you'll say something like, I'll make it unauthorized.
33:22I think we'll calm down by talking about whether or not we'll implement it in the end.
33:27And one more thing.
33:29I'm curious about your stance on the economy.
33:32I heard a policy that you want to discuss in the general election
33:36in the Japanese Economic News and TV Tokyo's emergency public opinion survey on the 21st and 22nd of this month.
33:42No. 1 is corporate measures. No. 2 is the economy as a whole.
33:45And No. 3 is pension. No. 4 is medical care.
33:48No. 5 is child-rearing education. No. 6 is employment.
33:51No. 6 is employment.
33:56And about the economy.
33:59Yes, about the economy.
34:01Let's take a look at the economic policy of the candidates from the report of Mr. Miyamae Koya, an economist from the SMBC Nikosho Prefecture.
34:10The vertical axis is categorized as a large government or a small government.
34:13The horizontal axis is categorized as a normalization or continuation of the economic policy.
34:18If you look at the candidates,
34:20Mr. Takaichi and Mr. Kobayashi claim that the economic policy continues in a large government.
34:25Mr. Motegi, Mr. Noda, and Mr. Ishiba claim that the economic policy is normalized in a large government.
34:30Mr. Kono claims that the economic policy is normalized in a small government.
34:34Mr. Koizumi also claims that the economic policy aims to normalize the economy.
34:40Mr. Takaichi is a so-called reflectionist.
34:44It's easy to understand that.
34:46But there are some other people who still can't see the position clearly.
34:51He put out a categorization like this.
34:55Mr. Oishi, where are you actually paying attention?
34:59For the economic policy, it's not about whether it's big or small.
35:04It's about whether or not the Abenomics has been successful over the past 10 years.
35:10I think that's a very key word.
35:13Especially the people of the Abe faction don't want to break the line that the Abe administration they supported was successful.
35:22So they always continue the Abenomics.
35:26It doesn't matter if there are minor corrections.
35:29I think they're very particular about whether or not the word Abenomics continues.
35:35In this category, I think Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Kono are more negative about it.
35:43But if you say it too clearly, you can't get the part of the Abe faction in the election.
35:49Is that the dilemma?
35:53I think that the word Abenomics itself is becoming more and more important than whether or not the economy is growing.
36:04Mr. Ito, Mr. Kobayashi is from the Ministry of Finance.
36:08But of course, he says that the economy is more important than the economy.
36:15What do you think about that?
36:18I think that half of the 20 people who voted in favor of the Abe administration are members of the Abe faction.
36:23I think you can see their consideration for the Abe administration.
36:27But even though they're from the Ministry of Finance,
36:33there are people who are not necessarily in favor of the Abe administration.
36:40But looking at it as a whole,
36:43as Mr. Ishiba said,
36:45I think it would be good to have a proper discussion among the candidates about how to get rid of Abenomics.
36:54And looking at the survey on Nikkei Television,
36:58I think it's important to show the people.
37:01In other words, the issue of politics and money has sunk deep into the sea.
37:04Of course, it's normal for the economy to go up.
37:09But I think it's completely involved in the presidential election.
37:14I see.
37:15I'd like to ask you one last question.
37:19Mr. Shiratori, I'm going to ask you a straightforward question.
37:24I understand that Shinjiro is in the lead,
37:29but who will be the other candidate?
37:32What kind of development are you expecting?
37:35From Mr. Shinjiro's point of view,
37:37who do you think will be more likely to win the election?
37:40What do you think about that?
37:42I think it's easier for Mr. Ishiba to come in.
37:49In the end, he'll be in the top two.
37:51I think he'll be able to create a new Liberal Democratic Party with the cooperation of the seven.
37:59But if Mr. Takahashi comes in,
38:03it will be difficult to maintain the Abenomics.
38:08It will be difficult to maintain the Abenomics.
38:12It will be difficult to maintain the Abenomics.
38:18But personally, I think gender is also an important factor in the sense of leadership.
38:28Mr. Onishi, what do you think?
38:30It's hard to predict who will be in second place.
38:35But I have the impression that even if he gets second and third,
38:39he won't be able to get to first place.
38:42I have the impression that he won't be able to get to first place.
38:45So, I think there's a chance that the results will be seen
38:49without having to vote to decide.
38:55After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:01After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:02After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:03After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:04After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:05After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:06After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:07After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:08After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:09After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:10After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:11After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:12After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:13After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:14After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:15After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:16After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:17After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:18After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:19After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:20After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:21After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:22After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:23After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:24After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:25After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:26After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:27After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:28After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:29After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:30After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:31After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
39:32After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
40:02After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
40:32After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
40:42After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
40:52After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
41:00After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
41:10After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
41:20After the commercial break, we will look at the election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the timing of the general election.
41:28If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
41:34If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
41:42If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
41:50If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
41:58If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
42:06If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
42:14If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
42:22If you really want to win the election, you have to be a liberal.
42:30Mr. Nozawa, there was a movement that concerned me the other day.
42:36Mr. Nozawa, there was a movement that concerned me the other day.
42:42There was a movement that concerned me the other day.
42:48On the other hand, when he appeared on a TV program recently,
42:52he denied that there was no election cooperation with the Liberal Democratic Party.
42:59Mr. Shiratori, what do you think about this?
43:02Now, since 1993, we are living in an era of continuous elections.
43:07We are living in a new era of Japanese politics called the 93-year system.
43:12It is impossible to change the government by a single government.
43:18In other words, the Liberal Democratic Party's representative election
43:24shows the line of confrontation between the two parties.
43:32Mr. Edaru is a liberal.
43:35Mr. Noda is probably a conservative.
43:38The direction is quite clear.
43:41I think it is difficult that Mr. Izumi's position is very unclear.
43:49If he were to become a new representative,
43:52I think it is necessary to make it clear what was wrong with Mr. Izumi's system.
43:57And what kind of framework will he use to take over the government during the election campaign?
44:02I think that is what will be discussed in the upcoming Kittori Commission.
44:07I think this result will probably have a certain influence on the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party.
44:13Mr. Oishi, if Mr. Noda actually becomes the representative,
44:18will there be a lot of cooperation at the level of election cooperation?
44:24I think it is difficult to reach election cooperation.
44:28However, Mr. Noda himself, on the eastern side of Japan,
44:32has a slightly more prioritized position.
44:36On the Kansai side, he has a slightly more prioritized position.
44:40I think it would be good if they could put down their candidates a little bit
44:45Certainly, there are quite a few electorates where you can win over the Liberal Democratic Party just by dividing up the seats.
44:50I think that kind of adjustment can be made to some extent.
44:55What is behind this is that the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party has increased tremendously.
45:00Since Mr. Kishida said he would quit,
45:03if it continues like this, the Liberal Democratic Party will be overwhelmed.
45:08In times like this, the Liberal Democratic Party is usually overwhelmed.
45:11The premise that the Liberal Democratic Party will lose seats in a tough election is already over.
45:18Therefore, the Liberal Democratic Party is also suffering from various issues,
45:22such as the issue of impeachment and the issue of the Governor of Hyogo Prefecture.
45:26The Liberal Democratic Party also has a considerable sense of crisis
45:30that if they don't cooperate even if they lower their heads,
45:34both parties will be defeated.
45:39I think this is connected to the study session of the Liberal Democratic Party this time.
45:46The Liberal Democratic Party also has a sense of crisis
45:50because of the issue of the Governor of Hyogo Prefecture.
45:54Mr. Ito, I think there will be a general election in November.
45:59To sum up today's story,
46:02Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi and Mr. Noda,
46:05when they became representatives of each other,
46:08when they became the face of the election,
46:11in a sense, it was interesting, including the debate.
46:15Yes, in that sense, it was very symmetrical and interesting.
46:19Mr. Koizumi has rarely appeared in the debates between politicians so far.
46:26Even if he had an interview alone,
46:29he is not used to debating between politicians,
46:32so I think it would be very interesting if the two of them had a debate.
46:36Also, as Mr. Koizumi said, the issue of the right to vote.
46:41When I was a member of the Liberal Democratic Party,
46:44I used to look into it a lot.
46:46The relationship between the exposure rate and the right to vote is exactly the same.
46:50So now the Liberal Democratic Party is exposed thoroughly,
46:53so it has risen sharply so far.
46:55However, I don't think there will be much time until the election,
46:59but I think it will calm down a little
47:03when the Liberal Democratic Party election is over.
47:07And the evaluation of the new administration will come out.
47:10So I think there is still a bit of room for improvement in the exposure rate.
47:18That's all for today's special.
47:20After the commercial break, it's time for the market.
47:26Tomorrow's Nikkei Nichiyou Salon.
47:28The guest is Prime Minister Seiko Noda.
47:31We will hear about the response to the Liberal Democratic Party election
47:34and the issue of politics and money.
47:36Please take a look.
47:37Now for the market information.
47:39The New York Dow continued to rise in the New York stock market on the 31st.
47:44The end price was $218, which was $41,563.
47:49It was the highest price in a row.
47:51Nasdaq, which has a high high-tech ratio, rebelled for the first time in three days.
47:54The end price was 17,713, which was 197 points higher.
47:59The end price of the New York foreign exchange market stock market
48:02was $1.46, which was $1.46, which was $1.46, which was $1.46, which was $1.46, which was $1.46, which was $1.46.
48:08Oh, it's 30 days.
48:09I'm sorry.
48:10The Nikkei average in Chicago was 38,990 yen.
48:13It's about 340 yen higher than the Nikkei average Friday end.
48:18I'm hearing from a market official that the stock market will be in the end of September.
48:22Hiroki Manex from Manex Shoken is at 39,500 yen.
48:25After the general election of the Liberal Democratic Party,
48:27the flow from the increase in the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party to the general election of disbandment
48:30has emerged as the theme of the stock market.
48:33It means that the stock market will try to rise in a stable state of the government.
48:37Kobayashi from UBS Sumitrust is at 38,000 yen.
48:41A review of corporate stocks has been carried out in a long-term trend,
48:44but the situation is difficult to overcome.
48:46He pointed out that he is concerned about the rise in volatility before the U.S. presidential election.
48:51It means that the election will affect Japan and the United States.
48:54Yes.
48:55Next week's schedule.
48:57This is also a list of the results of the election.
48:59At the end, there is an employment statistics,
49:01so those who are related to the market should pay attention to this.
49:04I couldn't pick it up earlier,
49:06but Mr. Oishi, what do you think about the timing of the general election of disbandment?
49:10In October, the new prime minister will be elected,
49:13and then there will be a list of the new prime ministers.
49:17Considering the timing of the election,
49:19it seems difficult to bring in the voting day in October.
49:23At the moment, there are many places that are preparing to vote on November 10.
49:30The possibility of voting is high.
49:33Yes.
49:34That's all for today.
49:36Thank you to all the guests for coming today.