日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月14日 日米の新リーダー選択 誰が勝ち抜く？
日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月14日 日米の新リーダー選択 誰が勝ち抜く？
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00:00SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2019
00:11Good morning.
00:12Good morning.
00:13This is the Saturday News on September 14.
00:16Now, let me introduce today's guest.
00:20Professor Miyako Nakabayashi of Waseda University,
00:23who is familiar with American politics.
00:25Thank you for joining us.
00:26Thank you for having me.
00:28Professor Tetsuo Kotani of Meikai University,
00:31who is familiar with international relations
00:33centered around the U.S.
00:34Thank you for joining us.
00:35Thank you for having me.
00:37And Mr. Takuma Ohamazaki,
00:39President of JAC Japan,
00:40who is an election consultant.
00:43Thank you for joining us.
00:44Thank you for having me.
00:47And Mr. Itaru Oishi,
00:48Editor-in-Chief of Nihon Keizai Shimbun,
00:50who is covering the political situation
00:52in Japan and the U.S.
00:54Thank you for joining us.
00:55Thank you for having me.
00:56We have four guests this week.
00:59Now, let's take a look at today's topic.
01:03We have two themes for this week.
01:07The first is the two-week presidential election
01:09until the Tokyo Olympics.
01:11We have nine candidates.
01:15And among them,
01:17we have a new leader of Japan.
01:21Mr. Yamakawa, what is your catchphrase?
01:25Kamara Sanae.
01:28Recently, the top Japanese and American leaders
01:31have been calling each other by first name.
01:34It's very popular.
01:36But looking at the current situation,
01:38Mr. Takahashi's potential is also emerging.
01:42So, I thought it would be a good idea
01:44to use this combination as a first name.
01:46That's why I wrote it.
01:47But today, as a special feature,
01:50I'd like to talk to the guests in two months
01:54and have them imagine.
01:56In two months,
01:57the leaders of Japan and the U.S.
01:59will change their faces.
02:00So, I'd like to talk about
02:02how the relationship between Japan and the U.S.
02:04will develop with this combination.
02:07So, the left side and the right side
02:10will be divided into two sides.
02:13Let's start with the special feature
02:15from Japan.
02:16On the 12th,
02:17the nine members of the JCPOA were elected.
02:21Let's analyze which candidate is the most popular.
02:29The JCPOA was announced on the 12th.
02:33The nine members of the JCPOA were elected.
02:38Yesterday, a joint press conference was held at the JCPOA headquarters.
02:42The elected members of the JCPOA criticized the policy.
02:45The JCPOA is a strategic policy.
02:48By doing so,
02:49we can improve the consumer mindset
02:52of increasing employment and income.
02:55By increasing the tax rate,
02:57we can create a form of increasing tax revenue.
02:59In a sense,
03:00the JCPOA is leaning too much to the left.
03:02In my opinion,
03:03the current energy basic plan
03:05should be revised urgently.
03:07In addition,
03:08the JCPOA should be implemented as soon as possible.
03:12The JCPOA should be implemented as soon as possible.
03:15The JCPOA should be implemented as soon as possible.
03:18The JCPOA should be implemented as soon as possible.
03:20I want to add more measures
03:22to make small and medium-sized businesses
03:24and small-scale businesses
03:26realize this.
03:28I want to focus on
03:30labor market reform
03:32and the reform of the unconstitutional policy
03:34including ride-share.
03:36I want to focus on
03:38human demand and
03:40restore the dynamism of the economy of Japan.
03:44In that way,
03:46I prioritize those
03:48who are single, single mothers
03:50and those who face difficulties in life with me.
03:52I will make policies
03:54that are versatile, comprehensive
03:56kind of and warm.
04:00We need no additional costs
04:03such as printed meal fees,
04:05maternity fees,
04:07We aim to implement the reform of the Constitution, including other systems that are heading in the same direction.
04:17If I become the Prime Minister, I want to be able to speed up the reform at a top-down level.
04:24I want to create an independent financial institution and thoroughly check the numbers issued by the government.
04:33I think that the direction of the reform is generally acceptable.
04:38However, we need to examine why Ukraine has not been able to influence the reform properly.
04:47I think that there is still room for growth in the Japanese economy.
04:52We want to pursue what is best for the Japanese people.
04:56I believe that we can increase our tax revenue through growth strategies.
05:03Yesterday, each candidate presented their growth strategy on TV Tokyo.
05:10A serious debate has begun.
05:14Will the debate be settled with nine candidates in disarray?
05:21In addition, each candidate has carefully considered the possibility of reinvestigating the Uragane issue.
05:30Will we be able to expect a debate that will destroy the public opinion?
05:39Although this is a general election without a majority, the shadow of a majority is visible in the faces of each candidate.
05:47What kind of impact will this have on voting?
05:52First of all, here are the faces of the nine candidates who voted in favor of the JCPOA announced on the 12th.
06:00Mr. Takaichi, Mr. Kato, and Mr. Kamikawa expressed their opinions.
06:04This week, nine of the nine candidates who voted in favor of the JCPOA announced in favor of the JCPOA.
06:09Mr. Ohamazaki, what do you think of the results so far?
06:15I think that the number of candidates has not increased at all.
06:25And the number of votes in favor of the JCPOA and the JCPOA is quite low.
06:32I'd like to pay attention to the movement of the three candidates in the first round.
06:43First of all, I'd like to hear from Mr. Ohamazaki in detail about the three candidates.
06:49Mr. Ohashi, what do you think?
06:51I often see that the issue of political funds has reduced the number of candidates, and that's why everyone is free.
07:00I'm thinking that the Prime Minister Abemoto died and the first Liberal Democratic Party was created.
07:07Since the second Abe administration in 2012, the same members have been in power for more than 10 years.
07:16Prime Minister Abemoto, Mr. Aso, Mr. Nikai, and Mr. Kishida.
07:21There were quite a few people in the Liberal Democratic Party who wanted to switch generations.
07:31As Prime Minister Abemoto passed away, people who were in the same generation thought it was about time.
07:40So, new people came out.
07:45On the other hand, people who were the last runners of the previous generation said,
07:50Oh, if I let them go, I'll never be able to get out again.
07:56There are people who want to get out of the top and the bottom, and as a result, they became a country.
08:03I see.
08:05I'd like to hear your comments, especially about the economy.
08:09Last night, the country appeared on WBS on TV Tokyo and wrote a proposal for a growth strategy for everyone.
08:17Mr. Takaichi proposed a strategic financial output.
08:21Mr. Kobayashi proposed a New Japan Creation Plan.
08:24Mr. Hayashi proposed content.
08:27Mr. Koizumi proposed an expansion of life choices.
08:30Mr. Kamikawa proposed an economy of multiplication.
08:33Mr. Kato proposed a doubling of national income.
08:37Mr. Kono proposed a labor market reform with a sense of dynamism.
08:41Mr. Ishiba proposed a regional creation 2.0 using the latest digital technology.
08:45Mr. Motegi proposed a policy of zero increase in taxes.
08:51Mr. Oishi, WBS specifically asked about the economy.
08:58Where are you paying attention to?
09:01When it comes to economic policy, there are various views,
09:06such as whether it is growth-oriented or fiscal reconstruction.
09:11But if we continue to praise Abenomics,
09:18I have the impression that the old Abenomics, which is now quite fragmented,
09:23will be able to get the votes here.
09:26I have the impression that they are promoting economic policy
09:30including the number of votes.
09:33Whether to affirm Abenomics or say that it needs to be corrected,
09:37the old Abenomics will be able to get the votes.
09:43That's what I'm looking at.
09:46Mr. Nakabayashi, how are you interested in Japan's general election?
09:55This is an election without a Liberal Democratic Party,
10:00but in the end, the Prime Minister will be elected.
10:02Then, how do the people see Japan as a whole?
10:07And what if you look at it from the outside?
10:10The general psychology of the people is that
10:13the Prime Minister Kishida was doing so well abroad,
10:17but why did he have to get off this time?
10:20The people were irritated that there was no way to fix the problem of the backbone
10:24or that the explanation was not fulfilled.
10:28And the private sector also fell sharply.
10:30Foreigners often ask me,
10:33why is the support rate so low when he's doing so well?
10:36It's because of the backbone.
10:38That's the only thing I can't explain from the inside.
10:41So, I think it's true that the general election this time
10:45is about how each person thinks about the backbone.
10:49But if it's too much,
10:51the people might forget.
10:54I would like to ask the experts in the field of public opinion research and election strategy.
11:01For example, there are people who recommend this person
11:06when it comes to the backbone issue.
11:12If you reverse that,
11:14what kind of election,
11:16the issue of the backbone,
11:18and the issue of the backbone
11:20will Japan face in the future?
11:22I think it will be seen a little.
11:24Will it be seen with this?
11:26That's right.
11:28The candidates will be asked to recommend 20 people.
11:33So, some people will be seen.
11:36How many of these 20 people
11:38were included in the so-called backbone members?
11:41If you reverse that,
11:43the backbone members will be seen,
11:46so the recommendation will be clear.
11:48Based on that,
11:49the candidates will be able to see
11:51if there was a situation where they had to do something,
11:54or if the problem was already solved.
11:58Let's take a look at the analysis of the recommendation.
12:02This is the analysis of the recommendation.
12:04Takahashi-san has 14 people in the Blue Abe faction.
12:08Kobayashi-san has 15 people in the Blue Abe faction.
12:15And Hayashi-san has 15 people in the Old Kishida faction.
12:19Koizumi-san has 14 people in the Muhabatsu faction.
12:24Many of them are also said to be members of the Suga Group.
12:29And Kamikawa-san also has 9 people in the Aso faction.
12:33And Kato-san has 6 people in the Old Motegi faction.
12:36And Kono-san has 18 people in the Aso faction.
12:39Many of the 14 people in the Muhabatsu faction of Ishiba-san
12:42are members of the Old Ishiba Group.
12:45And Motegi-san has 14 people in the Motegi faction.
12:49Mr. Ohamazaki, when you look at it from here,
12:52this is a question for Mr. Nakabayashi,
12:54but how do you see the attitude towards the Uragane issue?
12:59Well, first of all, Takahashi-san, who has many members of the Old Abe faction,
13:03should be noticed.
13:05As for Takahashi-san's Uragane issue,
13:07it has already been resolved once,
13:09and it is said that it is basically unacceptable
13:12for the current chairman to do anything more.
13:16Actually, among Takahashi-san's recommendations,
13:19there are many members of the Uragane faction,
13:22and among these 9 people,
13:24there is a large proportion of members of the Uragane faction,
13:27or a large amount of money,
13:29so in the future, the members of the Old Abe faction,
13:32this is a story about the recommendations,
13:34but it is said that the members of the Old Abe faction
13:37will also come out to support.
13:39What about Mr. Kobayashi?
13:41That's right.
13:43Next, the proportion of members of the Old Abe faction,
13:45I think that Mr. Kobayashi is the one who has the possibility
13:49that the members of the Old Abe faction will come out next.
13:52Mr. Kotani, I think that you are probably looking at
13:55Japan's general election from the perspective of security insurance
13:58or Japan-U.S. relations,
14:00but where are you paying attention?
14:02Well, I think that the current policy discussion
14:05is focused on the internal affairs,
14:07but for example,
14:09what will happen to the Japan-U.S. alliance from now on,
14:11and how will it relate to the current Ukrainian issue,
14:13I feel that it is difficult to hear the discussion.
14:16Among them, for example,
14:18there are candidates who say that we should review the non-dispersion principle
14:21and bring in the U.S. nuclear,
14:24but in the current U.S. nuclear policy,
14:26there is no nuclear strategy to bring it into Japan.
14:29There is no nuclear power.
14:31I wonder if they really understand the current U.S. nuclear policy,
14:34and there are candidates who say that Japan should also have a nuclear power,
14:38and there are candidates who say that Japan should also have a nuclear power,
14:41and there are candidates who say that Japan should also have a nuclear power,
14:44and it is normal to think that such a large-scale nuclear power
14:47can be operated in the East China Sea,
14:50but I feel that there are many people who speak
14:53with a little bit of military knowledge and safety insurance
14:56and make it stand out.
14:59And the biggest concern now is that
15:02there are people who say that they want to go to a cheap country
15:06even when they become prime ministers and prime ministers.
15:08This is where the relationship between Japan and the U.S.
15:11is finally starting to move,
15:14and many people are making an effort,
15:17but if the prime minister goes to a cheap country,
15:20it will destroy everything.
15:23The relationship with the U.S. and Korea will also get worse,
15:26so I wonder if they are thinking about that enough.
15:29Finally, the biggest challenge in Japan's safety insurance
15:32is the dispersion.
15:35If we don't solve the dispersion issue,
15:38we won't be able to maintain the JSDF.
15:41Now, one in 100 people has to join the JSDF.
15:44Twenty years later, one in 60 people has to join the JSDF
15:47to maintain the current JSDF,
15:50but this is not realistic.
15:53After discussing this properly,
15:56I would like you to discuss the growth strategy,
15:59the issue of science and technology,
16:02and safety insurance.
16:04Who is saying what?
16:07Who is saying what?
16:10Who is saying what?
16:13Mr. Takaichi is saying that we should
16:16reconsider the JSDF,
16:19and Mr. Kono is saying that
16:22we should take the lead.
16:25I think everyone is interested
16:28in what will happen,
16:31but I think Mr. Ohamazaki is doing a lot of analysis,
16:34so I would like you to explain
16:37what Mr. Ohamazaki is doing
16:40as a member of the board.
16:43The members of the board
16:46each have one vote,
16:49so the members of the board
16:52can look at the media
16:55or the SNS
16:58and see what they said
17:01at the inauguration ceremony.
17:04When you look at this,
17:07Mr. Kobayashi had the most votes,
17:10and he was the first one
17:13to go to the inauguration ceremony.
17:16After the inauguration,
17:19Mr. Hayashi,
17:22and Mr. Motegi
17:25have their own opinions,
17:28so there is not much difference.
17:31There are 20 candidates,
17:34but I think the votes are spread out.
17:37There are 107 people left,
17:40but does this mean that
17:43a huge number of people
17:46will go to someone else?
17:49Yes, out of the 107 people left,
17:52about 10 are elected officials,
17:55so they won't be declared until the end.
17:58So there are about 90 people left,
18:01and about half of them
18:04will go to Mr. Motegi,
18:07so where will these people go?
18:10I think they will go to politicians,
18:13or those who haven't been declared yet.
18:16After this, there will be an election,
18:19so who will they vote for?
18:22I think this will be the last move
18:25of the members of the board.
18:28So the members of the board
18:31will have a huge impact
18:34on the election results.
18:37Let's take a look at the results.
18:40On the far left,
18:43we have the Nikkei TV and other media.
18:46The top three are
18:49Mr. Koizumi, Mr. Ishibashi, and Mr. Takaichi.
18:52All three of them are being investigated,
18:55but do you think that
18:58this will be reflected in the election results?
19:01Yes, I think that
19:04it will be reflected in the election results.
19:07But there are two people left to vote.
19:10The numbers we have now
19:13are not just for the members of the board.
19:16The members of the board
19:19have an advantage over Mr. Ishibashi,
19:22and Mr. Takaichi and Mr. Koizumi
19:25are spreading a lot of dead heat.
19:28Mr. Koizumi and Mr. Takaichi
19:31don't seem to have much of a difference.
19:34So it's hard to say
19:37which of them will be left to vote.
19:40So I think there are three ways
19:43for the three candidates to work together.
19:46Mr. Ohashi, what do you think?
19:49Do you have anything to add?
19:52There are nine people now,
19:55but if you look at the results,
19:58there is a big difference
20:01between the top three and the remaining six.
20:04I think it's a bit rude
20:07to say that there is no difference
20:10between the top three and the remaining six.
20:13So Mr. Ohashi, what I'm most concerned about
20:16is that if there are three people,
20:19there are already three combinations, right?
20:22Yes, that's right.
20:25When there are three combinations,
20:28the number of members of the board
20:31will be higher in the final vote.
20:34That's what I'm most interested in
20:37at the moment.
20:40For example, Mr. Abe or Mr. Kobayashi,
20:43and Mr. Takaichi ideologically,
20:46or Mr. Kishida or Mr. Hayashi,
20:49or Mr. Kamikawa,
20:52will they choose Mr. Ishiba
20:55or Mr. Koizumi?
20:58I think there is a simulation
21:01like that.
21:04You have to be a little aware
21:07of the movement of the members of the board.
21:10In other words, the members of the board
21:13will immediately hold the general election,
21:16so after seeing the results of the local votes,
21:19the first round and the second round
21:22are only a few minutes long.
21:25In this process,
21:28each member of the board
21:31will observe the movement
21:34of the members of the board.
21:37Until a few days ago,
21:40there was talk that Mr. Koizumi
21:43was in the lead,
21:46but compared to that time,
21:49according to Mr. Ohamuzaki's recent analysis,
21:52there is a possibility that Mr. Koizumi
21:55will not remain among the two,
21:58and even if he remains,
22:01if he is in second place,
22:04it will be a matter of debate.
22:07Some people are a little worried
22:10about Mr. Koizumi's speech.
22:13Also, when considering the member vote,
22:16Mr. Ishiba is a strong candidate.
22:19If you look at the member vote,
22:22Mr. Takahashi has a more voting rate
22:25than the member vote,
22:28so I think Mr. Takahashi will get more votes
22:31than Mr. Ishiba.
22:34If Mr. Koizumi is in third place,
22:37there is a possibility that
22:40Mr. Koizumi will not remain.
22:43After the commercial break,
22:46we will talk about the evaluation
22:49of the U.S. presidential election
22:52and the whereabouts of the presidential election.
23:04More than 67 million people
23:07attended the U.S. presidential debate.
23:10The debate began with
23:13Democratic candidate Harris
23:16walking up to Republican candidate Trump
23:19and shaking hands.
23:35On the other hand,
23:38Mr. Trump criticized
23:41former Vice President Harris.
23:54Mr. Trump avoided personal attacks
23:57and wanted a calm debate,
24:00but Ms. Harris said
24:02that the U.S. presidential election
24:05is a time for boredom.
24:28Then, he said,
24:30the U.S. presidential election
24:33is a time for boredom.
24:36The energy policy of the two candidates
24:39is very different.
24:53The two candidates' opinions
24:56clashed,
24:58and it seems that
25:0163% of CNN TV's
25:04emergency public opinion survey
25:07said that Ms. Harris
25:10showed a better performance,
25:13surpassing 37% of Mr. Trump.
25:16What is the whereabouts of the presidential election?
25:28The U.S. presidential debate
25:31was held in the U.S.
25:34for the first time.
25:3767 million people
25:40attended the debate.
25:4351.3 million people
25:46attended the U.S. presidential debate.
25:4963% of CNN TV's emergency public opinion survey
25:52said that Ms. Harris showed a better performance.
25:5537% of CNN TV's emergency public opinion survey
25:58said that Ms. Harris showed a better performance.
26:01And 31% of CNN TV's emergency public opinion survey
26:04said that Ms. Harris showed a better performance.
26:07And 31%.
26:10On December 12,
26:13Trump himself claimed to be the winner
26:16by saying in his SNS video.
26:19He submitted again
26:22that he should focus on
26:25what he should have done in the past four years.
26:28What do you think about the overall evaluation of the discussion?
26:34In the first place, I didn't know what kind of person Mr. Harris was,
26:39what he was really thinking, and where he was really putting his heart.
26:47So I think a lot of people thought,
26:49what kind of person is Mr. Harris in this discussion?
26:53And I think that the discussion itself will come out as a discussion,
27:00whether you won or lost, whether it was good or bad.
27:08But on the other hand, it is not always clear what your life will be like in the discussion.
27:16So I think there are people who vote for other than winning or losing,
27:22so I don't know how far they have stepped and how far they have reached people's lives.
27:28I think there are still issues to be addressed.
27:31But there is also an entertainment element to it.
27:35In that sense, I remember the story of Trump eating a very punchy pet.
27:42But after all, impressions are important to voters,
27:46so I think it was a discussion like that.
27:49Mr. Kodari, what do you think?
27:51Well, Mr. Harris has been a prosecutor for many years,
27:56so he wanted to investigate the perpetrators of the guilty verdict.
28:05On the other hand, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Harris has been a member of the Biden administration
28:12for the past three and a half years as a vice president,
28:15but he has not been able to suppress this inflation.
28:18So he tried to show Mr. Harris's weakness in this TV debate by attacking Mr. Harris instead of Mr. Biden.
28:25As a result, Mr. Harris was able to touch on Mr. Trump's financial situation well and emotionally.
28:34As a whole, Mr. Harris seemed to be doing better in the debate.
28:41But as Professor Nakabayashi said,
28:44from the point of view of those who have not yet decided on the voting code for this election week,
28:49which one will make their lives easier?
28:52I don't know if I'll be able to pay the bill tomorrow,
28:55but which one will change my life?
28:57From that point of view, they are attacking each other individually,
29:02but I haven't heard much about the policy,
29:05so I don't think this TV debate will lead to actual voting.
29:10I don't think it will lead to a decision.
29:12CNN has broken down the topics a little more and listened to the evaluation.
29:19According to this, even after this debate,
29:23the immigration policy and the economy,
29:25in terms of the economy,
29:26it is very expensive to evaluate Mr. Trump's side of the red.
29:30Of course, Mr. Harris's side of the population is higher.
29:37Mr. Nakabayashi, in this area,
29:40in the end, Mr. Trump's evaluation is higher, isn't it?
29:43Mr. Trump has already been president for four years,
29:46and even through the pre-election,
29:48he has repeatedly repeated economic policies,
29:51so the people can understand to some extent.
29:54After all, he is intentionally issuing policies for workers in the election week,
30:01so that kind of thing is stuck in my head to some extent.
30:05However, Mr. Harris is saying that he will continue to vote on what Mr. Biden has issued,
30:12but he has not stepped into this debate
30:15as to what exactly my life, my job, and my future will be.
30:20That means that the debate is not the only chance to know it,
30:24but in the sense that we still don't know Mr. Harris's policy,
30:28there are quite a few details in the economic field,
30:31but if it's about my life,
30:34it's not limited to simply not paying taxes on the chip,
30:38so I think it's obvious that Mr. Trump knows that better.
30:44We still don't know how far Mr. Harris's policy will go.
30:49Mr. Oishi, what did you think?
30:52Well, when it comes to voters,
30:56I can't say for sure whether they are really making a decision based on policy
31:01or whether they are making a decision based on their mood.
31:05I think this is the same in both Japan and the United States.
31:09When people ask me how I think about this issue in a public opinion survey,
31:13I give a very interesting answer,
31:16but when I actually put it in the ballot box,
31:19I often just put it in because I feel like it.
31:23There are a lot of people who are focusing on economic policy,
31:28so I think it's a bit too much to think that things will really be decided by economic policy.
31:36Let's take a look at the contents of each other's conversation.
31:39Yes, I'm going to divide it into the main topics of the debate.
31:44First of all, regarding inflation measures,
31:46Mr. Trump invited the worst inflation ever.
31:48She is Biden.
31:50Mr. Harris said that raising tariffs will worsen inflation and invite economic change.
31:55And regarding the exchange rate, Mr. Harris said that it is Trump's consumption tax.
32:00The median is an increase of $4,000 a year.
32:03He also criticized Mr. Trump's policy on taxes.
32:07He criticized Mr. Trump,
32:09but he still feels that there is a lack of input into the original policy.
32:15And the next page.
32:18Regarding the leadership in the world,
32:20Mr. Trump said that if he won, he would end the war between Ukraine and the Middle East.
32:26And in the Trump immigration issue,
32:28he wanted to blame Mr. Harris for not being able to prevent illegal immigration,
32:32but he said that it was not true that illegal immigrants were eating the dogs and cats of residents' pets,
32:37resulting in criticism.
32:40Mr. Kotani, where did you pay attention?
32:43Well, the issue of foreign security was not a big issue,
32:50but the issue of China, Ukraine, and Gaza were also discussed to some extent.
32:58The issue of China is a big issue for American workers,
33:05so I think that Mr. Trump was more motivated and resonated with this issue.
33:15Regarding the issue of Ukraine,
33:17Mr. Trump said that stopping the war between Ukraine and the United States would be the American legacy.
33:24He didn't answer that clearly,
33:26but he said that he would end the war anyway.
33:30Mr. Harris, on the other hand,
33:32couldn't say how exactly he would continue the war between Ukraine and the United States,
33:36so I don't think there was enough discussion around this issue.
33:41As one of the data,
33:43we know that there are some residents of Poland or Ukraine in this war zone.
33:51What kind of voting code do these people take?
33:56We are currently gathering information on what kind of voting code these people will take.
34:03The Harris camp is now starting to advertise to appeal to residents of Poland,
34:10so we haven't paid much attention to this area,
34:13but we may hear a few hundred votes in the end.
34:19How about you, Ms. Nakabayashi?
34:21Actually, J.D. Vance, the vice president of Ukraine,
34:25recently said that it is one of the solutions to make Ukraine a satellite neutral country.
34:32He said he wouldn't put Ukraine in NATO.
34:34That's right.
34:35That means that even if he promises that,
34:38Russia has broken that promise so far,
34:40so if European countries don't help,
34:44there is a possibility that Ukraine will be invaded again.
34:49In fact, in this debate,
34:51Mr. Trump said that he would immediately stop the war in Ukraine,
34:58but he didn't say what he would do.
35:00The host asked a more specific question, but he didn't answer.
35:04That's right.
35:05I think there is a plus or minus to what he actually said.
35:09The vice president's candidate is a satellite neutral country,
35:13which is exactly what Russia wants.
35:16In that case, Russia will have a lot of options,
35:19including the removal of the occupied territories.
35:24It is important to know what people in the United States think about international affairs,
35:33and what immigrants think.
35:38From Japan's perspective,
35:40I think it's a pretty big story because it's related to what order will come out in the future,
35:49including the fact that the United States has been in an economic sanctions
35:54to protect democracy as a satellite neutral country.
35:58Mr. Ohamazaki is a professional election planner,
36:02but how does the presidential election compare to the general election?
36:06Yes.
36:07There were two candidates for the presidential election,
36:10and there were two hours of TV debate.
36:12One of them didn't talk for an hour,
36:14but the debate didn't get deeper.
36:16As Mr. Ohamazaki said earlier,
36:18there should be a political debate,
36:21but it's not always the case that the voters' vote is political.
36:26No matter how much we talk about politics here,
36:29as we did four years ago,
36:31we didn't know if the coronavirus would spread like this,
36:34or if there would be an earthquake.
36:37Then, for example, leadership,
36:39or as Mr. Nakamura said earlier,
36:41being next to people,
36:43that kind of behavior.
36:45We have to look at these things.
36:47There were nine candidates for the general election this time,
36:50and there was almost no debate in either direction,
36:53so I think there are some points where the candidates can't decide.
36:57But I think it would be interesting to see
37:00where each candidate speaks for a longer period of time,
37:03or if there is a way to explain being next to people a little more,
37:06I think that kind of play would be interesting.
37:09I'll just check the recent situation of the presidential election.
37:12It's in Gekisenshu, right?
37:14Yes.
37:15It shows the difference in the winning rate of Gekisenshu,
37:18but after the end of the Democratic Party,
37:20it's on the left, and after the TV debate, it's on the right.
37:23After the TV debate,
37:24Harris became the governor,
37:26and Harris became the governor for three states,
37:29but Michigan is down 1.2 points.
37:33Pennsylvania, where there are many voters in Gekisenshu,
37:36has no difference.
37:38It's a result of waiting and waiting.
37:41Ms. Nakabayashi, where do you pay attention?
37:43Arizona, which is a border state,
37:48after the end of the Democratic Party,
37:51the number of supporters for the Republican Party,
37:54which was about 0.2, has increased to 1.6.
37:58That's right.
37:59Yes.
38:00I think that's a big jump.
38:03It's no different from a close battle,
38:05but it's a big jump.
38:07That means that among the states that are in contact with the border,
38:11Trump's statement, including eating pets,
38:16has a tendency to be very interested in immigrants.
38:22I think that people living in each state
38:25are gradually finding out
38:29what they are doing wrong
38:31as a matter of their daily life and everyday problems.
38:36Yes.
38:37Now, let's see if there are any changes
38:39in the relationship between Japan and the U.S.
38:41in Japan and the U.S. in Japan and the U.S.
38:44Let's take a look at the political diaries of Japan and the U.S.
38:48The presidential election for the Democratic Party will be held on the 27th.
38:52The new president will be appointed by the prime minister on behalf of the main office.
38:55After the inauguration, there is a strong prospect of a disbanded general election.
39:00The date of the general election is 10.27,
39:03which is earlier than expected.
39:06And the presidential election for the U.S.
39:08will start mail-in voting in Pennsylvania next week,
39:11and on October 1st,
39:13a televised speech by the vice-presidential candidate will be scheduled.
39:16In the second televised debate of the presidential candidate,
39:19Mr. Trump has rejected it,
39:21and there is a strong prospect that it will not be held.
39:23The general election for the presidential election will be held on November 5th.
39:27Mr. Oishi, first of all,
39:28when do you think the general election in Japan will be held?
39:33At first, the theory that the general election will be held on November 10th
39:37was very popular,
39:39but now the mood is that we want to do it as soon as possible.
39:45So the possibility of voting on October 27th is getting bigger.
39:50On October 1st, we will convene the National Assembly,
39:53decide the prime minister right away,
39:55and give a speech on the 4th.
39:57After that, we will ask a representative question and disband.
40:00I think the general election will start on the 15th.
40:04Mr. Ohamazaki,
40:05there is also a representative election for the立憲民主党.
40:09What do you think about the prospect of the general election?
40:13It is said that the representative election for the立憲民主党 will be held by Mr. Noda or Mr. Edano.
40:19As Mr. Ohamazaki said,
40:21the schedule after this will be very tight.
40:25After the立憲民主党, the people, the representative election, and the general election have changed,
40:29we will have to prepare for the general election in a short period of time.
40:32In such a case, if the time and resources are the same,
40:35those who have the financial power and organizational power are still strong in the election.
40:39Even if someone is the president of the People's Party,
40:42there is a prospect that the People's Party will be a strong result.
40:47But I think there is a matchmaking part,
40:50such as who is the representative of the立憲民主党 and who is the president of the People's Party.
40:56I think it will change depending on the situation,
41:01whether the face will be left and right, or whether they will be middlemen.
41:07If Mr. Noda becomes the representative of the立憲民主党,
41:10will the election cooperation with the so-called opposite party
41:14progress or not during this short period of time?
41:18I don't think it will progress much,
41:20but on the other hand, the opposite party is also in a very tough situation now.
41:23I think we'll talk about it at that stage,
41:26but I don't think it's going to go that far yet.
41:33And today, we talked about the theme at the beginning,
41:38but in two months, the faces of Japan and the United States will be different.
41:44I don't see the United States at all,
41:50but I'd like to ask each guest what kind of combination it will be and how it will be.
42:01First of all, Mr. Kotani, where are you paying attention?
42:05If the United States becomes President Trump,
42:09there are three conditions for dating.
42:12One is patience, and the other is that the domestic foundation is solid.
42:18The first is that golf is good to some extent.
42:21From that point of view, there are no people who fit those three conditions,
42:28so I think it's difficult for anyone.
42:33What about Mr. Harris?
42:35Mr. Harris has little foreign experience,
42:38so I'm not sure how he will date foreigners.
42:42One is that Mr. Harris is Indian,
42:47but he is not very popular in India.
42:50When she goes to India, this kind of movement happens.
42:53That's because she criticized the Hinduism of the Modi administration.
42:59She criticized it even in India, which is her roots,
43:03so if she is a leader who does not fit her values,
43:07there is a possibility that she will criticize it,
43:10so she may be a difficult leader.
43:13Ms. Nakabayashi.
43:15I think it's quite difficult to change the logic of the world suddenly,
43:22but in the United States, foreign ministers are the most likely to meet foreign ministers.
43:33Mr. Kamikawa, the current foreign minister,
43:36said that if he met her, he might become the leader of Japan.
43:41I personally talk to people who have become the leader of Japan.
43:48If you think about it,
43:50there are not many people who can hear such a voice among the top three.
43:57Are you talking about the top three?
44:00I'm trying to decide the evaluation in Washington,
44:03not only in Japan, but also in the United States.
44:07In that sense, I think it's difficult to match.
44:13Also, if Mr. Harris becomes the leader of Japan,
44:16I don't know if there will be a woman's struggle,
44:20but it's not just about gender,
44:22but it's also about how much women's rights are valued,
44:26and in particular, the Democratic Party values diversity and inclusion,
44:32so I think it will be a card that is easy to understand.
44:44Mr. Oshii, what do you think?
44:46Interestingly, I said earlier that there is a big difference between the top three and the bottom six,
44:52but none of the top three are foreign ministers.
44:56Among the bottom six, there are actually four foreign ministers.
45:01So after the general election is over,
45:05if the winning party dominates the losing party,
45:08this will have an unexpected impact on the relationship between Japan and the United States.
45:13In fact, whether the Democratic Party can show its teamwork
45:17will also affect what to do with the next presidential election.
45:21That's already at the presidential election,
45:24various people will be treated,
45:26and people with rich foreign experience will also come in.
45:30Among them, there are people who say,
45:32if it's Trump, leave it to me.
45:34I don't know if he can do it alone,
45:37but I think it's important to have a person who can take advantage of that kind of thing.
45:46Mr. Ohamazaki.
45:47That's right. As Mr. Oshii just said,
45:49if the general election is a decisive vote,
45:52it will definitely become a matter of the post-reform movement.
45:55At that time, including who will do the field work,
45:59how the top three will move is the most important thing.
46:05From an economic point of view,
46:08whether this combination is real or not,
46:11or whether there is a possibility,
46:13the combination of Mr. Trump and Mr. Takahashi
46:16is a so-called Abenomics inheritance.
46:19Or in the Japanese economy,
46:22I heard that there is a certain expectation that Abenomics will continue,
46:25and that Mr. Takahashi will support it.
46:27Mr. Trump, on the other hand,
46:29has established as a combination,
46:31and if this relationship improves,
46:33Abenomics itself will revive again.
46:36It is said that it is an unstable situation in the economy
46:40that it will recover again in the long term,
46:44but I think there is a possibility that it will recover.
46:48I think it's a little different when you think about whether there is such a possibility.
46:52Well, if you just look at the economy,
46:54it looks like it's going to accelerate quite a bit.
46:57It looks like a combination.
46:59It's a strategic recovery.
47:01Now, after the commercials, it's market information.
47:10Tomorrow's Nikkei Sunday Salon.
47:12The guest is Kouji Nakakita,
47:14a professor at Chuo University and a political scientist.
47:16We will hear about the whereabouts of the Liberal Democratic Party
47:19and the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party.
47:21Next is the market.
47:5136,220 yen
47:53It is about 360 yen cheaper than the end of Friday of the Nikkei Week.
47:58I asked a marketer about the stock price at the end of September.
48:02Ide, a Japanese-made basic research institute, is 37,500 yen.
48:06At FOMC, the downward pace until the end of next year is shown,
48:10and the market's opacity softens,
48:12but the yen price is reversed,
48:14and the rise in Japanese stocks is limited.
48:16Itoshima, PICTE Japan, is 36,000 yen.
48:19At FOMC, the yen price due to the reduction in the Japanese-U.S. bond price
48:23and the possibility of entering the GERAC trend are high.
48:25From the trend of American AI semiconductor-related stocks,
48:28the rise in Japanese average stocks is heavy,
48:31but it is also possible that the market will reverse
48:33if the new stock price is sold in early dismantling.
48:37Then, next week's schedule.
48:40First of all, a meeting to decide the financial policy
48:43at the market in Japan and the U.S. will be held.
48:45Pay attention to this area.
48:47Mr. Kotani, the mail voting will start in Pennsylvania.
48:52That's right.
48:53In Pennsylvania, the mail voting will be counted
48:57after the voting is over,
48:59so I don't think the results will come out on the same day.
49:03So, if the results are in the morning of the 6th day of the Japanese time,
49:06we will know the results,
49:08but we probably won't know at that point,
49:11and I think that there may be a recount after that.
49:16Mr. Yabai, what do you think?
49:17The Republican Party is also following the democratic party's policy
49:20to vote by mail.
49:22This is a promotion policy to ensure voting,
49:26but Mr. Trump has recently said that
49:29he will not vote by mail,
49:32so I'm worried that he will put up a warning when he loses.
49:37I see.
49:38What will happen in two months?
49:40Thank you all for coming today.