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00:01:30Well, thanks so much for tuning in to India Market Close right here on NDTV Profit.
00:01:57And it's the final day of Lord Ganesha's 11 days of being here with us.
00:02:06I call it 11 because we do it a day earlier as well.
00:02:09And today is the day when he leaves.
00:02:12In fact, there will be a visarjan right in our studios as well.
00:02:15So looking forward to that.
00:02:16But the markets will behave, you have to admit, I mean, just about 46 odd points in the in
00:02:23the green for the nifty, back nifty, OK, midcaps and small caps on your screen next.
00:02:30And there too, the performance has been very, very flat as you didn't expect too much different.
00:02:36You have to admit simply because the penultimate day to the Fed decision, we'll get to know
00:02:42about it tomorrow evening.
00:02:43Remember, and later on in the show, viewers, I'll tell you exactly how the tape is played
00:02:47every single point of time that there has been a bit of a rate easing cycle.
00:02:53So that you have to bear in mind.
00:02:55Let's get the heat map up on the screen and show you what's moving and what's not.
00:02:59Well, some weakness for Tata Motors continues.
00:03:02HDFC Life continues.
00:03:04Adani Port is now the new entry in the top five losers.
00:03:07Aishwarya Motors, Tata Steel.
00:03:08So that's the set of stocks that largely remain weak through the day today.
00:03:12What's done well?
00:03:13Hiro Motocorp and Bajaj Auto.
00:03:15So at least the other two wheelers have done well, even if Aishwarya hasn't.
00:03:19Bharti Airtel, another one and a half percent.
00:03:21Mahindra and Mahindra gallops in trade.
00:03:23NDPC, Cipla, Britannia, some of the others that have stood out.
00:03:28A fairly disparate set of stocks moving today, but no trends really out here in the large
00:03:33cap space.
00:03:34Trends, if any, at the broader end of the spectrum.
00:03:36And the BSE 500 list of winners and losers will come up on your screen next.
00:03:41Mighty different from what it looked like yesterday, though you admit that maybe a century
00:03:45ply kind of stood out yesterday too, but Blue Dart, Century Ply, Nuo Covista, Sumitomo Chemicals.
00:03:51Not too many newsmakers, but for a Thermax, which is continuing to move up in trade.
00:03:55And IGL, MGL, the duo, which have had a good move because of the UBS node.
00:04:00What's not done well?
00:04:02Triveni Turbine down about 5 percent.
00:04:05Godfrey Phillips corrects today.
00:04:06Blue Star corrects.
00:04:07A bit of a correction in Suzlon.
00:04:10And then some of the pharma names, Biocon, FTC, Loras Labs is in the red today.
00:04:15Not a lot of pharma names have done really well.
00:04:16So that's the other bucket to watch out for.
00:04:19Lastly, the listings.
00:04:20Let's just get them on the screen.
00:04:22And you see PN Gartgill, you see Bajaj Housing Finance, both of them will come up on your
00:04:27screen individually, as also you probably see Cross Limited amongst the few that came
00:04:33out in the last two days.
00:04:34And this is, of course, PN Gartgill about 60.
00:04:37So more or less in line, Cross 5 percent lower, continues to remain soft.
00:04:42And Bajaj Housing Finance, Toinstar is down 5 percent as well, continues to remain soft.
00:04:47And Bajaj Housing Finance, 10 percent yet again.
00:04:51And then the brokerage calls that have come in today.
00:04:53So like I said, IGL, MGL, there is Ola Electric, which has seen an uptick, and there is Neogen
00:05:00Chemicals, which has seen an uptick.
00:05:02So IGL up about 3.8 percent, MGL 3.7, Ola Electric and Neogen Chemicals are the other
00:05:07two.
00:05:08Ola is up 10 percent.
00:05:09Neogen Chemicals, the last one, up about 10 percent as well.
00:05:12So watch out for all of this.
00:05:15Let me take it to our guests.
00:05:16Aditya Agarwala is with us on the show today.
00:05:18Aditya, good having you.
00:05:19Thanks for taking the time out.
00:05:20Hope all is well.
00:05:21Are you trading the index at all, Aditya, or are you basing it completely on specific
00:05:25stocks?
00:05:26Good afternoon.
00:05:27Thanks for having the show.
00:05:28To be honest, I'm not trading the index at current levels because if we see the last
00:05:33three trading sessions, the market hasn't done much for itself.
00:05:36We are getting small real bodies, not much of a movement for the index per se.
00:05:42On the upside, 25, 4.50, 25.51, it is acting as a hurdle and we are nearing an event, a
00:05:46very important event.
00:05:48So any negative surprises can trigger a negative reaction in the market as well.
00:05:52So for that reason, I will stay out of the index and also on several timeframes, some
00:05:59of the indices are trading at overbought levels.
00:06:01So for that reason, maybe I'll trade stocks and individual stocks and sectors where there
00:06:06is a momentum and just stay out of the index, both the Nifty and the Bank Nifty.
00:06:10After a recent run up in the Bank Nifty as well, I think it's poised for a mild bit of
00:06:15pullback, at least from the Bank Nifty, and if we get anywhere 52,000 or maybe 51,900
00:06:22in the next couple of trading sessions, that can be an opportunity to go long on the Bank
00:06:26Nifty.
00:06:27But as of now, staying away from the indices.
00:06:30Okay.
00:06:31Kush, are you trading away from the indices as well or are you trading the Nifty or the
00:06:35Nifty Bank?
00:06:36Good afternoon.
00:06:37Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:06:38Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:06:39No, I would stay away, but the gun to my head, if I were to trade an index, it would be back
00:06:45to the head.
00:06:46Head of the Fed decision.
00:06:47Head of the Fed decision, no guns to the head, Kush.
00:06:50So I'll leave you.
00:06:51I am so glad.
00:06:52I am so glad.
00:06:53No, I agree with Aditya's reasoning as well.
00:06:54I mean, if you see, Nifty has not gone anywhere.
00:06:5525, 550 is the near-term target or hurdle the way you look at it for the Nifty.
00:06:56So the risk reward ratio will not really be too favourable.
00:06:57Also, Bank Nifty, I have been constructive on for some time, continue to remain so.
00:07:13My only hitch is that 50 to 200, the level that we've been talking about, and this was
00:07:18the second target that we spoke of at the start of this month for the Bank Nifty, that's
00:07:21been hit.
00:07:22But now there is a congestion zone from 50 to 200 to 50 to 800.
00:07:27Event is already there.
00:07:28The index has already run up.
00:07:30I think these couple of factors will make it a more interesting buy if we do have a
00:07:33pullback of about three, four hundred points on the Bank Nifty, or we do meaningfully cross
00:07:38the 50 to 200 threshold and close above that.
00:07:41So at the moment, I think indices are a no trade, but as I said, the bias on the Bank
00:07:46Nifty, I'm sorry, at least continues to remain positive.
00:07:50Okay.
00:07:51Let's take in stock ideas then.
00:07:52Aditya, I'll come to you first.
00:07:53Your top stock recommendations for the day today.
00:07:55So I have a couple of buy recommendations, Neeraj, because there is buying scene in individual
00:08:00stocks.
00:08:01So the first one is Adani Green.
00:08:02It looks very interesting to me on the chart set up.
00:08:05After a good period of consolidation, stock is now getting ready for a breakout from an
00:08:09ascending triangle pattern.
00:08:10At current levels, I'm preempting a breakout purely because of the fact that I'm seeing
00:08:14excellent volumes for last two trading sessions.
00:08:17For a target of 2160, I'll go long on Adani Green with a stop loss at 1830 on the downside.
00:08:23The second stock recommendation is from the two wheeler space, which is Hiromoto Corp.
00:08:26Again, stock has been making high rise, high low constantly.
00:08:29And after a good bit of consolidation, stock is again into 52-week high territory.
00:08:34So at current levels, I will go long on Hiromoto Corp as well for a target of 6450 on the upside
00:08:39with a stop loss at 5700 on the downside.
00:08:43Interesting.
00:08:44Both stocks fairly active today as well.
00:08:47Adani Green, of course, had a big move in trade yesterday too.
00:08:50Kush, what about your stock recommendations?
00:08:54So hedge strategy, Neeraj, given how the market is placed at the moment.
00:08:59So IEX was our call last week with a second target of 221.
00:09:02That's been hit.
00:09:04So you could take this as an update also and a follow up, which is, you know, the steady
00:09:07move on this continues and it's very impressive.
00:09:10The volumes are also very decent.
00:09:12On the days when the stock ended lower, the volumes are actually shrunk.
00:09:14So this is suggesting that there is a fair degree of delivery buying in the sectors are
00:09:18slightly weakish on this one.
00:09:20Although the stock is off the day highs, but that's understandable.
00:09:23I think from a near-term perspective, you could continue to hold for targets of 225
00:09:27or 229, 225 and 229 and 215 is your stop loss.
00:09:32If you don't have a position, you could still consider, you know, making one in IEX.
00:09:37On the short side, we've got BHL, if you'll recall around 290, we had a short call on
00:09:41this.
00:09:42So the way of that market is significantly lower.
00:09:45For the last three to four sessions, we've seen a bit of short covering bounce in this.
00:09:49But there's a possibility that, you know, this might fizzle out.
00:09:52And the strong support zone is close to the 255 mark for the 200 day moving average recital.
00:09:56So 260, 255 are your targets on the downside and 270 is where you place your stop loss.
00:10:01So IEX is a buy and BHL is a sell.
00:10:05Interesting.
00:10:06A buy and a sell call, balancing it out, no selling the stock of the day today.
00:10:11And you could argue, you could have flipped between Ola Electric or NEOGEN chemicals.
00:10:15We've chosen NEOGEN chemicals to talk about because chemical stocks aren't quite doing
00:10:19well, but NEOGEN is.
00:10:21This comes after Avenda Spark initiated coverage with a buy rating on the stock.
00:10:25Varsha Johnson with the rationale behind this.
00:10:27Varsha, what does the brokerage house have to say?
00:10:30Well, thanks Neeraj for that.
00:10:32So we are speaking here about 125% upside potential that Avenda Spark has given to this
00:10:38stock.
00:10:39They have initiated coverage with buy rating with a target price of 3600.
00:10:43Now let's see why the move.
00:10:45So NEOGEN is already an importer of lithium carbonate.
00:10:48So getting into electrolyte salt makes much sense.
00:10:52And so electrolyte salts are actually used in making of lithium ion batteries.
00:10:56But the battery chemical market, if you see, is a competitive market.
00:11:00So no company has an advantage or a guaranteed edge as per Sparks.
00:11:05Now the domestic EV market, if you see, is a slow starter and battery demand is low now
00:11:09at around 10 gigawatts.
00:11:11But if EV picks up, so we are talking about demand of around 52 gigawatts by 2030, leading
00:11:19to almost $750 million of opportunity.
00:11:23Now globally, NEOGEN could tap into $3 billion of US markets and $2.5 billion of Europe market
00:11:31and $0.2 billion when it comes to Asia market.
00:11:34Now if you see the NEOGEN's net debt, it stands at around 400 crore in FY24.
00:11:40Sparks is expecting this to inch up to 1700 crore by FY26 because of the CAPEX which they
00:11:45are doing into the EV business.
00:11:47But Spark is not worried about it because if NEOGEN executes it well.
00:11:52And they are expecting a 46% CAGR when it comes to revenue from FY25 to FY28, mainly
00:11:57driven by EV business, that is battery chemical business.
00:12:01Now let's see what are the risks that Sparks has laid down.
00:12:05So slow EV adoption, then EV execution and non-Chinese competition are some of the risks
00:12:11that they have spread out.
00:12:12So technically, it's a big opportunities market, big opportunities ahead, but challenges
00:12:17do exit.
00:12:18Now speaking about the valuation, so basically their CSM business, that is custom synthesis
00:12:24business is around 15% of their revenue, which they want to take it to 20% due to the diversification
00:12:31when it comes to flavors and fragrance industry.
00:12:33And positive outlook has been given on the recovery of agro-chemical sector from H2 FY24.
00:12:38So taking into all this into consideration, considering the capacities that they are going
00:12:42into, the greenfield capacity.
00:12:45So they are expecting FY26 sales of around 12, 1280 crores with around 20% EBITDA margin.
00:12:52And considering the 10% PAT margin if you take, so we are talking about EPS of around
00:12:5748.
00:12:59So on base, if I were to talk about the valuation, considering FY26 basis, so we are talking
00:13:07about a multiple of around 37.
00:13:09So this is all we have on NEOGEN.
00:13:12So basically this is buzzing on the back of this Spark that they have initiated a coverage.
00:13:16Oh, yes, indeed, and these days brokerage calls sometimes get some very strong reactions
00:13:21as well.
00:13:22Aditya, coming on NEOGEN up about 11% and counting, is there more here?
00:13:28It's a bit of a lone ranger.
00:13:30So I have to admit, Gujarat Floro has done a real good job last week too.
00:13:33But what about NEOGEN in particular?
00:13:35I think there's a bit more upside here left, can test levels of 1400 on the upside.
00:13:39On the downside, 1150 is a good support area.
00:13:43But yes, don't allocate too much of money here because of the fact the stock has already
00:13:47shot up significantly in the past few trading sessions.
00:13:50But yes, the up move continues and 1400 can be seen in the near term for the stock for
00:13:54sure.
00:13:56Kush, I'm throwing this out of the dark at you, but there is strength in Edelweiss.
00:14:03Two days on a trot, it's done well today.
00:14:05The weakness has been bought back into the green today.
00:14:09Can it do more?
00:14:10Neeraj, considering what's happening in the entire space, a lot of names have already
00:14:16run up.
00:14:17Edelweiss is playing a catch up game now.
00:14:19There is a possibility that it can do more.
00:14:22But similar to what it has done in the last month or so, that remains a little unlikely.
00:14:28But if you're a trader and if you want to play for the last, let's say, 5%, maybe 8%
00:14:32up until the levels of 140-145, you could buy into the dip that you're seeing today.
00:14:38There was a gap that was created two days ago with the gap up opening that's been filled
00:14:42today.
00:14:43So that technical parameter also stands good now.
00:14:46So if you want to buy, your stop loss should be at 124.
00:14:49You're looking at targets of 138 and 145.
00:14:52For the last, about 8%, 10%, 5%, if you want to do play the momentum, then yes, Edelweiss
00:14:58does have that kind of strength.
00:15:00Okay.
00:15:01Well, new guest on the show, Hemang Jani.
00:15:05And let's talk about new kids on the block, because frankly, the big talking point for
00:15:10the last few days, weeks, months, maybe, maybe new paper that is coming in.
00:15:14Hemang, good afternoon.
00:15:17Thanks for joining in Gargill today, Bajaj Housing Finance yesterday.
00:15:21In fact, Bajaj Housing Finance today as well, a slew of others that have done well.
00:15:26What's your view on the primary paper?
00:15:28And particularly, let's say Bajaj Housing Finance, who a lot of people may have got
00:15:32an allotment or may not have got an allotment, but may have been wanting to buy.
00:15:37What does one do with this one?
00:15:39Good afternoon, Edel, I think the party continues in the primary market and no real complaints
00:15:46except the fact that the exuberance is too much.
00:15:51And while the valuations are definitely on a higher side, the only good part about some
00:15:56of these companies is that they belong to a very credible kind of business group.
00:16:02And there is a very good business model in place at the ground level.
00:16:08So in gold market, people tend to kind of forget or ignore valuations and how big the
00:16:15story could be.
00:16:17But that's the typical nature of the market and we have to accept that.
00:16:22So I think as long as this party continues, I think we should really try and participate
00:16:28to the extent that we can.
00:16:30So now that, let's say in case of Bajaj Home Finance or this PN Gargill, I would reckon
00:16:38that having seen this kind of exuberance, we should really wait for a good entry point
00:16:44rather than chasing the momentum, because typically you see wild swings in the newly
00:16:50listed names as wild as 15-20%.
00:16:54And recently, in case of two or three such primary issues, we had seen that post listing
00:16:59the stock corrected almost about 25%.
00:17:02So I would be more comfortable buying into, let's say a Bajaj Home Finance somewhere close
00:17:08to about 155-160 zone rather than chasing at this point of time.
00:17:14Okay, so a Bajaj Home Finance, Bajaj Housing Finance you mean Hema, you would be comfortable
00:17:22in buying into?
00:17:25Yeah, I am talking about Bajaj Housing Finance, I would be more comfortable buying in the
00:17:30range of about 155 or thereabouts rather than chasing because of the kind of run up that
00:17:36we have seen in the past two weeks.
00:17:37The problem is that there is such a sense of FOMO, for the lack of a better word, for
00:17:43Bajaj Housing Finance that no one is sure if you will get that opportunity.
00:17:49You know, you have a Philips Capital note out today, which has set a target price of
00:17:53210.
00:17:54So yeah, at some point perhaps you will get the opportunity.
00:17:57My point is that is it, and there's so many more coming in.
00:18:02So I want to ask your view and focus of the IPOs which are actually going to come in further
00:18:06down the line.
00:18:07Everyone's going to wait for the next Bajaj Housing Finance like opportunity.
00:18:12Is there any primary paper that you are looking forward to?
00:18:15Well, the biggest issue that I'm looking forward to is NSC.
00:18:20Let's hope it gets clearance from SEBI very soon.
00:18:24Because sometimes what happens is that, let's say in case of Bajaj Housing Finance, first
00:18:30you saw action across most of the housing finance companies.
00:18:35And even the NBFC, the whole sector got related.
00:18:40And then when the listing happened, there is a certain amount of excitement that's created.
00:18:44So in anticipation of the NSC IPO, we have seen a fairly good action across BSC, MCAX,
00:18:52even IEX.
00:18:53You may or may not call it a genuine exchange platform, but there is a fair degree of action
00:18:59over there also.
00:19:00So I think this is something really very exciting for retail investors.
00:19:05And NSC, given the positioning that it has, the kind of volume growth that we have seen
00:19:11in the markets, be it new listing, options, futures, cash, and more importantly, the kind
00:19:18of subsidiaries it is sitting on.
00:19:20I think it presents a great opportunity for all the investors.
00:19:23So looking forward to that IPO very keenly.
00:19:26Okay.
00:19:27I mean, the NSC IPO, it will just be madness.
00:19:30If we're seeing this kind of frenzy for Bajaj Housing Finance, it's going to be chaos.
00:19:36But I'm wondering, just talking about BSC then, because looking at the run-up that BSC
00:19:41had yesterday, and we'll pull up the BSC stock now, ahead of whenever this happens, how do
00:19:46you like any of those exchanges?
00:19:47Kush, let me come to you.
00:19:49BSC after its massive run yesterday has seen a bit of a slide in one month, about 26% up.
00:19:56Would you look at a BSC, just basis charts?
00:20:01For sure.
00:20:02The stock had had a very good run, but then a news or two came out and then it consolidated
00:20:06for a long time, that I think from a technical standpoint, at least was very healthy for
00:20:11the stock.
00:20:12It even went all the way down to the 200-day moving average, spent some time there and
00:20:15then rebounded.
00:20:16I think on the whole, this universe is doing very well, very stark possibilities that it
00:20:22could continue to do well.
00:20:23It may not be like a secular one-way run, but these volatile moves with bouts of correction
00:20:28are very much welcome.
00:20:29I think if you don't have BSC, you should include this in your portfolio and hold it
00:20:33for some time.
00:20:35From a trading perspective, I think 3600 is a fairly reasonable number on this.
00:20:39On the downside, you're looking at a stop-loss close to 3200, which the previous high was,
00:20:44that resistance will now start acting as a support.
00:20:46On the whole, very constructive on BSC, any kind of dip should actually be taken as an
00:20:49opportunity to accumulate or add in your portfolio.
00:20:53Okay.
00:20:54Let's talk about some other buzzers today and basis notes actually.
00:20:59I mean, I'm sure we all like Electric was one, but the other one is MGL and IGL.
00:21:04UBS has given a positive outlook for both Mahanagar Gas and Indraprastha Gas.
00:21:10Mekha joins us with the details.
00:21:14Good afternoon.
00:21:15So the buzz around IGL and MGL is mainly on a UBS brokerage note.
00:21:19What UBS has noted is a consolidation into the CGD, which is the city gas distribution
00:21:24sector and expects this consolidation trend to continue because of the pressure due to
00:21:28infrastructure targets, gas sourcing challenges, which will be the key drivers.
00:21:32And they state that IGL and MGL have stated an intention to participate in this trend.
00:21:36Now, for Indraprastha Gas, they've upgraded the rating from a sell to a buy at a target
00:21:40price of Rs.700, which implies a 32% upset to the previous close.
00:21:44Infrastructure expansion as well as new geographies are expected to drive volume growth.
00:21:48And they've raised the FY26 and FY27 volume estimates by 1% to 3%.
00:21:51They've also stated that Indraprastha Gas does not currently reflect inorganic growth
00:21:57opportunity in its valuations and that the market is pricing too much of an EV risk.
00:22:01For Mahanagar Gas, they maintain a buy rating and have raised the target price to Rs.2,400,
00:22:05which also implies a 31% to 32% upset from the previous close.
00:22:08They expect elevated volume trajectory to sustain in coming quarters.
00:22:12And they've raised both the FY25 to FY27 total volume expectations as well as the EBITDA
00:22:18per unit expectations.
00:22:20In terms of Mahanagar Gas's valuations, they do not view that Mahanagar Gas's valuations
00:22:24are demanding and they stated that the stock does partly reflect some inorganic growth
00:22:29in its valuations.
00:22:30You know, IGL, MGL both doing well today.
00:22:33I mean, of course, they paid in comparison when you compare to what an Ola is doing.
00:22:36But all right.
00:22:37IGL, MGL both having a good day.
00:22:40UBS is bullish on.
00:22:42Hemang, do you share that view at all?
00:22:45I think, you know, if you see the hardcore numbers, IGL, because of its presence only
00:22:53in the NCR region, actually, the growth in terms of volume was not that good.
00:22:58And even if you look at the vehicle registration data, you know, there was no growth whatsoever.
00:23:05Now, you know, if one is really making out a case that there is going to be a geographical
00:23:10expansion and you will have, you know, growth come through from consolidation, etc., I honestly
00:23:17don't have a very specific logic or data points to believe that, you know, typically, unless
00:23:24you see that there is a great amount of visibility on the volume growth and when you're talking
00:23:30about a volume growth of 4, 4.5% to almost 8% and it is almost about 90 to 100% kind
00:23:35of growth.
00:23:36So I don't see much of justification in these kind of growth numbers.
00:23:40Typically, people do want to participate in stories which have really not performed as
00:23:45much because, you know, if you look at the aggregate market, there are hardly any pockets
00:23:49where you can make out a case that, okay, there's a genuine story, etc.
00:23:53So people look out for laggards or, you know, the stories which have not really done well.
00:23:58So not too positive on that space per se.
00:24:01I would rather, you know, look out for better opportunities outside the city gas distribution
00:24:06at this point of time.
00:24:07All right.
00:24:08So we're talking about the other brokerage buzzer and that's Goldman Sachs, clearly,
00:24:14which has a buy rating on Ola Electric with a target of Rs. 160, that's a 48% upside.
00:24:23This stock just flying today, already 117, 10% up, 9% up nearly.
00:24:29So the reason why Goldman Sachs is so bullish is they say that Ola Electric is building
00:24:35a local formula for giga growth in electric two-wheelers and are positively levered to
00:24:40long-term trends in India's electric two-wheeler market.
00:24:44Their in-house battery manufacturing launches by incumbents are key factors.
00:24:50This is something that a lot of houses have reiterated.
00:24:53Remember when we spoke to Ola Electric as well, they're talking about this in the first
00:24:58quarter of next year or the first calendar year quarter of next year.
00:25:02It has been pushed back to a couple of times, but that's going to be the big change.
00:25:07Goldman Sachs expects the EBITDA to break even by FY27 and expect FY24 to 30 revenue
00:25:14growth of 40% CAGR for Ola as well.
00:25:18I'm going to come, I mean, I don't know what the technical analyst, perhaps not enough
00:25:22data to talk about Ola, so let me come back to Himang on it, since it's a fairly new listing,
00:25:26so I don't think too much data on the charts.
00:25:28But Himang, in this whole electric vehicle story, do you think Ola has an advantage as
00:25:33a front runner?
00:25:34Because the other view is that the moment the larger players come in with dominance,
00:25:39they can wipe out the market share that Ola has fairly easily.
00:25:44So while there is a certain degree of excitement because of the timing and the fact that the
00:25:49EV story in India is still at a relatively early stage and we'll see a fairly decent
00:25:56growth over the next three to five years.
00:25:58And when you look at the comments from the players like Bajaj, TVS, Hero Motors, they,
00:26:05even Maruti for that matter, they are saying that a large part of their growth will happen
00:26:10from the hybrid or the EV vehicles.
00:26:14So Ola certainly has an advantage over there, but given the kind of valuations and the fact
00:26:19that the profitability is far off from where we are right now, I have always been of the
00:26:26view that it makes more sense to be with the incumbent players because companies like Hero,
00:26:31Bajaj, TVS, all of them have a decent amount of presence on the EV side also.
00:26:37And Bajaj has done so much better with the CNG side of the game.
00:26:41So it makes more sense to be with them while the returns may not be that great because
00:26:46of the emerging category of this company, Ola, but for a stable 15-20-25% kind of return,
00:26:53I think the incumbent players make more sense rather than a name like Ola at this point.
00:26:59What would be your top pick there in the incumbent players?
00:27:03My top pick would be Hero Motors followed by TVS because still in case of Hero Motors,
00:27:11the valuation is not out of whack.
00:27:13And I do think that given the fact that 2Wheeler as a space is doing well, it makes more sense
00:27:18to be with these two names.
00:27:22What about you, Akush on TVS, Hero Moto, which do you prefer or if I add Bajaj there as well?
00:27:31This is where technicals meet fundamentals.
00:27:34Bajaj has had a very sharp run-up, no signs of correcting just yet, but the risk-to-worth
00:27:40ratio will not be favorable anymore at this juncture.
00:27:44So any kind of pullback towards 11500, perhaps even a little lower, 11300 should be a good
00:27:49entry point.
00:27:50But at the moment, Bajaj, if you've got it, then ride the momentum, pardon the pun.
00:27:54But otherwise, no entries now.
00:27:56TVS seems to be doing well, it's consolidating perhaps like most other stocks.
00:28:00This is also waiting for the big event to be out of the way before it breaks that resistance
00:28:06around the 2850 mark.
00:28:07So this is the one that you can consider.
00:28:09But among the three, the one that tops my list is Hero Moto.
00:28:145900 was the resistance, it's taken that out very comfortably today on the back of volumes
00:28:19which are higher than the monthly averages.
00:28:22So if you want, then you could still consider this one.
00:28:25On the upside, you're looking at a 6200 and a 6350 kind of levels as your target.
00:28:30And 5800 thereabouts, the resistance will now start acting as a support so that's a
00:28:34stop-loss.
00:28:36Aditya, what about you?
00:28:37What is your sort of list and rankings as far as two-wheelers are concerned?
00:28:45I do like Hero Moto as well, in fact, I had suggested buying Hero Moto Cop at the start
00:28:50of the show.
00:28:51So I think Hero Moto Cop definitely can be looked at.
00:28:53On the flip side, if I just look at Ola Electric, I think it makes sense to go long even though
00:28:58there is limited data, but whatever data I see on the charts, I think after a good run-up
00:29:03stock went into a consolidation phase with a stop-loss just below the recent lows of
00:29:07105, one can actually look at going long on Ola Electric at current levels and look for
00:29:11a target of at least 150 to about 160 which was the previous high for the stock.
00:29:15So I think both the stocks, Hero Moto and Ola Electric can be bought at current levels
00:29:19purely going by the chart setup.
00:29:21Okay, all right.
00:29:22We'll take a very short break but stay tuned.
00:29:26We have a special deep dive coming up on the other side where we get you a bull versus
00:29:30bear scenario into what I'm sure is the biggest talking point in the market right now, Bajaj
00:29:35Housing Finance.
00:29:36Stay tuned for that.
00:32:30Back with India Market Close right here on NDTV Profit.
00:32:41Just take a quick snapshot.
00:32:43Remember, it's not a very active day from a broader of the spectrum space, but I mean
00:32:49I think the IPOs are the ones which are ruling the roost even in terms of large trades or
00:32:52otherwise it's effectively all the new kids on the block which are featuring in this list
00:32:58and Gadgil of course stays out, stands out by virtue of the fact that it's the first
00:33:03day but Bajaj Housing yet another 10% upside on that one whether we like it or not and
00:33:08the others.
00:33:09But any case, speaking of Bajaj Housing, since it continues to see gains in today's session,
00:33:14we thought why fight the party, why not join it and talk about Bajaj Housing a little bit
00:33:19more.
00:33:20The point is are there some causes for concern in the stock despite the run-up or is it a
00:33:25blue sky scenario?
00:33:26So Harsh Johnson with the bull view and hey, Harsh Johnson with the bear view as well.
00:33:32Harsh, tell us, what are the arguments for and against?
00:33:35Well, never a complete blue sky, right?
00:33:38So bull versus bear on Bajaj Housing.
00:33:41First off, with regard to growth, there's been very, very solid growth that Bajaj Housing
00:33:46has seen on its AUM portfolio, 72% CAGR till FY24 in terms of AUM growth compounded annually
00:33:54and the current growth also continues to stand at 30% plus.
00:33:58Well, the flip side of it, you have a 1 lakh crore book now.
00:34:02So can you continue to sustain that kind of growth?
00:34:05Not so sure and as the base keeps increasing, that will be tougher to come.
00:34:10That 30% kind of number, not sure if that can sustain.
00:34:14Also, increased competition as penetration continues to increase.
00:34:18But the other focus is definitely profitability.
00:34:22Well, Bajaj Housing has stronger yields due to the top-up loans that they offer, but with
00:34:27it also comes higher risk.
00:34:30As of now, you're not seeing that risk translate, but if that would translate, you could suddenly
00:34:35start to see the bear case on that start to play out.
00:34:39I'll stick to asset quality even on my next point when it comes to construction finance.
00:34:46In terms of growth, construction finance is something that Bajaj Finance will, Bajaj Housing
00:34:51will likely lean on to continue to push growth because it's chunkier loans, right?
00:34:57And therefore, that increased reliance will also come at an increased risk.
00:35:02But what Philip Capital seems to be suggesting is they will grow it only at 8 to 10%.
00:35:09That's what they're building in, in their numbers.
00:35:11Mind you, Philip Capital has expected the balance sheet to double in three years.
00:35:15So they're also expecting growth at 25% and likely not 30 plus percent, just for context.
00:35:22Last off, with regard to valuations, Philip Capital has given this a target price of 210,
00:35:27while it is also the most expensive housing financier already.
00:35:33On day one itself, it was the most expensive housing financier.
00:35:37Why is that so though?
00:35:39One of the reasons for that is that the anchor lock-in leaves very little room for liquidity
00:35:45in the stock.
00:35:46The anchor lock-in largely comprises of 4 to 5%.
00:35:51Mind you, the promoters haven't diluted in a big fashion.
00:35:53They continue to own 89% of the company.
00:35:56And therefore, the free float is extremely small.
00:35:58In fact, when you look at the NSC, the number of shares available or rather demanded by
00:36:07investors is roughly two and a half crore shares, whereas there are no sellers on the
00:36:12NSC, at least on this stock at the moment.
00:36:15So, the bull case, as per Philip Capital, they have assumed 210 to be the basis of price
00:36:22to earnings multiple of 30 times, which is 30 times they've come to basis a 20% discount
00:36:30on one standard deviation higher than Bajaj Finance's price to earnings multiple.
00:36:37And that's what they've really taken as the number.
00:36:40Therefore, that's how this plays out.
00:36:42Just in terms of price to book, here's some context.
00:36:46You look at Aptus, which is probably the second priciest in terms of housing financiers, and
00:36:51Bajaj Housing standing tall, twice of that in terms of price to book valuation.
00:36:57So, something to take from all of this, I hope.
00:37:01Most certainly, a lot to take for, but you know, this is a thing.
00:37:05I mean, maybe some of the companies, the larger ones, have remained the most expensive names
00:37:10in their particular sectors, but have continued to do well.
00:37:13Calder Dixon in that side, or Trent, which another one and a half, by virtue of being
00:37:18another one and a half percent higher, would probably easily qualify as the most expensive
00:37:23retail stock, but continues to march higher.
00:37:26So, a really strong show.
00:37:27Now, because we've discussed Bajaj Housing Finance at length, I want to talk about some
00:37:31of the others.
00:37:32And Trent comes in as a case in point.
00:37:34At 7,400, fundamentally Himachal, it is arguably one of the most expensive liquid names.
00:37:42Maybe there is an Avenue Supermarts with features there, but it's not quite retail, retail,
00:37:47although you could argue that it's a different form of retail, but entirely a retail story.
00:37:51So, what do you do with Trent, and Avenue Supermarts, and some of the others, but Trent
00:37:55in particular?
00:37:56You know, it's typically, you know, in a bull market like what we are witnessing right now,
00:38:03you will come across, you know, certain companies, certain teams, where companies would deliver
00:38:10on the growth, or companies which are doing much better than the consensus market expectations,
00:38:16there is going to be a chase, and people are willing to give much higher valuations to
00:38:22such companies.
00:38:23So, if I have to give you a few examples of such companies, it will be something like,
00:38:28of course, you know, Trent is top in that game, Indico, and you also mentioned D-Mart,
00:38:37but D-Mart, the growth has not been that great, while they have been, you know, consistent
00:38:42in terms of wealth creation.
00:38:44I think that the growth that D-Mart has posted, at least in the last two years has not been
00:38:49that great.
00:38:50So, I think exchange for that matter, let's say something like a BSE from about 1200-1400
00:38:55rupees, it has become, you know, about 5-6 bagger kind of a story.
00:39:00So, there are certain pockets where you will see this kind of a performance, and because
00:39:05of the growth that they're delivering, market is willing to pay them higher valuation.
00:39:10So, if you were to ask me about my view on Trent, it would be a bit difficult for anybody
00:39:15to justify buying a fresh.
00:39:17But I do think that as long as they deliver a 40-45-50% kind of a growth of the top line
00:39:23and bottom line, the company will continue to deliver.
00:39:26So, I would be comfortable holding on to Trent.
00:39:29If I have to buy a fresh, maybe I'll buy in two or three parts.
00:39:33Okay.
00:39:34Okay.
00:39:35Fair call.
00:39:36Yeah.
00:39:37But the rally though, you have to admit, and I take on board Emang's point, the question
00:39:41from a trader's perspective is that every single point of time this stock starts looking
00:39:46like it's becoming toppish, it then tends to move higher.
00:39:48In 12 months, 257% is a seriously strong run.
00:39:54So, the question that I have, Aditya Aggarwal, for you is, would you go out and trade this
00:40:01now at the current juncture?
00:40:03Would you go out and take a fresh bet, whether a long or a short, on a Trent, maybe some
00:40:08of the other retail players?
00:40:11Definitely not needed, to be honest.
00:40:12The kind of overbought levels that the Trent is showing, purely going by the chart setup,
00:40:17I wouldn't stick my neck out and buy the stock at current levels.
00:40:21I can't justify a risk to reward at current levels.
00:40:24Maybe if I have to pick a stock, Demart could be one which offers a good risk to reward.
00:40:30But again, on the upside, my targets would be at max 5,800 to about 5,700.
00:40:37Okay.
00:40:38And you know, talking of expensive stocks, I mean, there was a beautiful conversation
00:40:42that we had today with Ravi Dharamshi, wherein he was talking about how some stocks which
00:40:46appear expensive, actually are cheap because the earnings growth more than makes up for
00:40:50it.
00:40:51You need to build a hypothesis, of course.
00:40:52So he was giving example of Titan earlier in the conversation, and then he loaded on
00:40:58to talk about the EMS space, wherein stocks like Dixon, Keynes, etc., are looking expensive.
00:41:04Hear out a small slice of that conversation that we had with Ravi Dharamshi.
00:41:08They are factoring in a lot of the future.
00:41:13So there is a risk to the extent that what if the future is different than what the stock
00:41:18prices are suggesting.
00:41:19However, I'll just give you a framework on how we think about it and how we attach probabilities
00:41:25to the outcome.
00:41:27And that might give you some sense on how to evaluate this.
00:41:31So 2-3 years back, when this sector was actually getting born, you know, where new companies
00:41:36were getting listed.
00:41:37At that point of time, this valuation concern was actually totally not required.
00:41:44Why?
00:41:45Because, see, we tend to track a lot of these trends on our 10-20 year horizon.
00:41:51But only when they cross a particular inflection point that we bring it on our radar or make
00:41:56it a part of our investable universe, is that the growth is going to pan out in the next
00:42:025-7 years and not in some 10-20 year horizon, which might not be my investment horizon to
00:42:08begin with.
00:42:10So when, you know, government in 2014-15 started talking about making India, and then they
00:42:18focused, they came out with a policy for electronic manufacturing, we knew that this is the beginning
00:42:25of a particular mega trend.
00:42:27However, we waited until, you know, Samsung came here, Apple came here.
00:42:33Once the OEM started coming here, and of course, we all start with low-end assembly work.
00:42:39And then the ecosystem around it started developing.
00:42:43That's when you keep your eyes out for companies, where there is some differentiation where
00:42:49they are showing some signs, who are these large OEMs beginning to work with?
00:42:54Those are the companies that you should be focused on.
00:42:56And then you have a reference point, how this particular thing has panned out, whether in
00:43:00China, whether in Taiwan, and someday we will have our own Pegatron, Winstron, Foxconn out
00:43:07of India.
00:43:08Yes, there is all possibility and likelihood that we will have, because government has
00:43:12created that required ecosystem and the required ingredients from where the entrepreneurs can
00:43:20actually start charting their own path.
00:43:24Okay, so that was an interesting view from Ravi Dharamshi.
00:43:27But you know, at this point, nearly 15 minutes and a little more for market close, the focus
00:43:33is now going to shift on hedging your positions ahead of the Fed meet.
00:43:37And Hemang, just let me come to you on that part about how banks, IT will be in focus,
00:43:44you think, next two trading sessions?
00:43:47Yes, clearly, you know, there's going to be a, you know, overall focus on the rate cut,
00:43:54what kind of rate cut do we get, what kind of market reaction the US will have post that
00:43:59announcement.
00:44:01And I do think that a large part of the positive news coming from the rate cut are in the price.
00:44:07So you might see a little bit of, you know, a negative reaction if it is just 25 basis
00:44:12points, which is what widely the market is expecting.
00:44:15But I think as a part of the sector rotation, I definitely think that, you know, banking
00:44:19should remain quite, you know, stronger, we are seeing a bit of stability and positive
00:44:25action in names like ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and even HDFC Bank.
00:44:31So I do think that as a rotation, you know, theory, you will see some money moving back
00:44:38into the banking sector.
00:44:43It is a very important next 48 hours or less than 48 hours because the Fed meet begins
00:44:50today, today evening, Indian time, and by tomorrow evening or tomorrow late evening
00:44:55or night, Indian Standard Time, we'll get to know what the Fed has decided.
00:45:00Now, it's important to put this into perspective.
00:45:03Market is currently pricing in a 62% possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut.
00:45:10This has moved up because about a month ago, maybe, the probability was much lower.
00:45:15I mean, it was about 25% one month back.
00:45:19This is as per, of course, data available.
00:45:23So this is part one.
00:45:24Now, let's move on and try and talk about what are the key things that people should
00:45:28keep in mind when you look at the history.
00:45:31So in 2001, which is the one period of rate cuts, the Nifty fell 35% after falling 25%
00:45:37in the year of 2000.
00:45:38So when you're thinking of what the index strategy should be in a rate easing cycle,
00:45:43keep in mind that in 2001, the index had fallen.
00:45:46Actually, a fairly similar performance, if you will, or at least a fall that happened
00:45:50in 2008 as well.
00:45:51That will be the next one that will come up on your screen.
00:45:54Nifty rose initially, but plunged 60% in 2008.
00:45:58The only difference, viewers, is that both in 2001 and 2008, or the 2000-2001 and 2007
00:46:04and 2008 period, you had massive economic woes in the U.S. and otherwise.
00:46:13The GFC happened, the financial crisis in 2008, Y2K, post-Y2K period in 2000-2001.
00:46:19So therefore, that also had to play a part.
00:46:22In 2019, the index had stayed absolutely flat in the easing cycle.
00:46:28Now, let's compare the context of what was the case in the different years.
00:46:34So in 2001, in the second period, 7-8, 2019 in the current period, the Fed outcome, rate
00:46:40cut, rate cut, rate cut.
00:46:41Here, we will see a rate cut two days from now.
00:46:43Trailing P multiples for the index, our markets, 15 times in 2001, 20 times 2007-8, 30 times
00:46:502019.
00:46:51Currently, you could argue we are about 31 times trading earnings.
00:46:54So this is part one, trailing P. What about some of the others?
00:46:58Let's say the price to book, market cap to sales.
00:47:01So trailing price to book, 1.7 times in 2001, about 4.5 times in 2007-8, 2.9 times 2019,
00:47:09currently at 4.8.
00:47:10So you can see that even on this parameter, we are at the highest level relative to the
00:47:14past.
00:47:15And market cap to GDP as well, we are almost comparable to what the situation used to be
00:47:21in 2007 and 2008.
00:47:22So could there be an encore?
00:47:26History may not repeat, but can history rhyme?
00:47:29It most certainly can.
00:47:30Like I said, the only difference is that 2007 and 2001 were completely different periods
00:47:35from an economic growth perspective.
00:47:37This time around, it's not so bad.
00:47:38The last thing that I want to mention, well, what should the strategy be?
00:47:42So for example, Nuama has put out a note, and they are saying that they maintain large
00:47:46defensive bias.
00:47:48Expensive cyclicals like industrials, PSUs, autos, and metals are most vulnerable, a la
00:47:53IT in 2001, and cyclicals in 2008.
00:47:55They have a more defensive bent, cash cows, insurance, and some of the others, and private
00:48:02banks are the ones they are the most overweight on.
00:48:06So this is the long and short of the data that you should keep in mind when you're thinking
00:48:10of an index strategy in a Fed easing cycle.
00:48:13Yeah, absolutely.
00:48:14And that's what everyone's focus will be on.
00:48:17I think the other factor is whether we will see an increase in foreign fund flows coming
00:48:23in post the Fed meters out of the way, and a subsequent correction in equities, in Indian
00:48:29equities due to rate cuts.
00:48:31If there is one, will it be different and will it be shallow?
00:48:34A very interesting take on this from Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC, listen in.
00:48:40I'm sure you would have seen a Lagaan movie where local team defeated English team.
00:48:47We are seeing Lagaan playing out in our market every day.
00:48:51First we saw one day international during COVID time where April, May, June, July, August
00:48:5520, foreigners came and dumped about 70,000, 80,000 crore.
00:49:00They just wanted to exit, so there was no price limit.
00:49:04And retail investor kept on supporting mutual fund via SIP, and we kept on buying, and finally
00:49:10foreigners considered defeat.
00:49:13Then they realized that one day international is not where we can win.
00:49:17So they came to play test match between October 21 to June 22, they sold about 250,000 crore
00:49:24worth of equity.
00:49:25Again, retail investor kept on supporting us, don't worry, we are sending our SIP money,
00:49:32just keep on investing in India growth story.
00:49:35Eventually foreigners tired out and then they withdrew from test match.
00:49:39Then they realized that we can't win against retail investors and mutual funds in one day
00:49:45or in test match.
00:49:46So let's come and play T20.
00:49:49So on the election result day they came to play T20 and one single day they sold more
00:49:54than 20,000 crore.
00:49:56Now this time retail investor said mutual funds you move out, we'll give you some money,
00:50:00you can do what you want, but let us play directly.
00:50:04They pumped more than 20,000 crore in a single day to take out all the foreigners selling.
00:50:10Now with this kind of domestic participation, you can very well guess what kind of corrections
00:50:15will come and how swift it will be.
00:50:19The point is, in this market, we do expect limited downside for quality stocks, for high
00:50:26floating stock counters and for reasonably valued stocks.
00:50:32The wall of money cannot stop overvaluation to get corrected.
00:50:37We have seen that in 90s, we have seen that in 2000s, we have seen that in 2008.
00:50:44Money alone cannot support stock prices for long.
00:50:47At the end of the day, stocks are a slave of earning power.
00:50:52So my feeling is that the correction for the broader market will be limited, will be shallow,
00:51:02but there are stocks where corrections will be painful as and when supply emerges.
00:51:07Well, let's take in closing strategies now.
00:51:12Before we talk more, Kushbora, I'll come to you first, your top BTST or STBT as the
00:51:17case may be.
00:51:18BTST in this case, Sriram Finance continues to do well, is trading on the positive side,
00:51:24mild profit booking, but that's understandable, but the volumes are very encouraging.
00:51:28So from a near-term perspective, 3500, 3575 are the targets to look at, 3350 is where
00:51:33you place your stop-loss.
00:51:34So Sriram Finance on the long side.
00:51:36Okay.
00:51:37Aditya, what about you?
00:51:38Your top closing strategy?
00:51:39Couple of buy recommendations again, Neeraj.
00:51:41ABB looks attractive to me on the chart set up.
00:51:43So it's a buy for a target of 8300 with a stop-loss at 7650.
00:51:48The second stock is MFSL, that too looks interesting, continues to make high-rise, high-lows.
00:51:53For a target of 1250, one can initiate a fresh long position here with a stop-loss at 1100.
00:51:59Okay.
00:52:00Hemang, some of the brokerage names have made a spurt in the recent past.
00:52:05I mean, we've seen the last few days, GM Financial, Edelweiss, a couple of others starting
00:52:10to move around.
00:52:12Convinced about the capital market story or brokerage is not the best way to play it?
00:52:18I do think that given the, you know, kind of exuberance that we are seeing in the capital
00:52:22market, you know, both on the cash and on the derivative side, there is going to be,
00:52:27you know, some excitement for the, you know, exchanges and for the brokerage firms both.
00:52:35In the brokerage firms, I think, you know, Edelweiss, because of the possible de-locking
00:52:40of the Newama stake and, you know, a couple of other companies, you might see some more
00:52:47upside.
00:52:48So I think that's more of a special situation or a tactical play.
00:52:52And I do think that, you know, IAFL would be one stock that one could really look at
00:52:59it given the fact that it has not participated as much versus some of the other brokerage
00:53:04names.
00:53:05So that is where I think there is a case for some sort of a re-rating over there.
00:53:09Okay.
00:53:10You know, today's contrasting fortunes for a Suzlon versus the Inox twins, simply because
00:53:16otherwise the fortunes are there linked to the excitement within the wind energy equipment
00:53:22space.
00:53:23But today, Suzlon is down, but Inox wind and Inox wind energy, both of them are up and
00:53:27about in trade, 4.5%, if I'm not wrong, currently for Inox wind energy.
00:53:32What about equipment, Hemang Jani, are you constructive here or are the valuations prohibitive?
00:53:39I think the overall story there continues to be good, but I would be more comfortable,
00:53:46you know, into the larger names, you know, something like ABB Cements, which have a much
00:53:53more diversified portfolio and, you know, this is across railways and capital goods
00:53:59and related stuff.
00:54:01So the feel is that many people thought that capital goods is a space is kind of the valuations
00:54:07are too high and the growth may not sustain beyond a point.
00:54:12But my understanding is that, you know, given the larger capex across the pockets, this
00:54:19theme will stretch itself for another couple of years.
00:54:23And the stocks have cooled off a bit from the top that they made.
00:54:27So both ABB and Cements are the companies that I would be comfortable buying into even
00:54:31at parent levels.
00:54:33Okay.
00:54:34You know, that is some of the focus for tomorrow.
00:54:39But just to widen it, we are over the next few days going to hear a lot from the Modi
00:54:46government and key ministers for the completion of 100 days of the government.
00:54:51This also becomes important from the point of view of a lot of capex announcements that
00:54:56are going to come in and the focus, of course, on manufacturing.
00:55:00Now, in an exclusive conversation with NDTV's Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia, the External
00:55:05Affairs Minister S.J.
00:55:06Shankar highlighted the importance of the manufacturing sector in India's growth and
00:55:12the need for strengthening manufacturing prowess.
00:55:14Listen.
00:55:16The foundation, the foundation is manufacturing.
00:55:22We need to move manufacturing forward.
00:55:26Orthodox means normal manufacturing and tomorrow's manufacturing, which you think is new emerging
00:55:33technologies, like semiconductors, like drones, like space, like electric mobility.
00:55:39But at the same time, you should also take your engineering goods, your other manufacturing
00:55:45with you.
00:55:49Because until manufacturing increases, your employment will not increase.
00:55:53So, in order to increase manufacturing, today the Modi government has given priority that
00:55:59these 12 industrial nodes should be built all over the country.
00:56:04And along with that, the need for skills that you must have seen, that the formal budget,
00:56:11the full year's budget, that was also given priority for skilling.
00:56:16That industrial nodes should also move forward, its infrastructure should move forward so
00:56:22that goods, raw material comes, finished goods come out.
00:56:26And the preparation of human resources, how it moves forward.
00:56:30Okay, so that was the word coming in from S.J. Shankar.
00:56:33The external affairs minister, of course, in an exclusive conversation with NDTV.
00:56:38But as we wrap up the trading day, it's been fairly lackluster, to be honest.
00:56:44Completely flat on all ends, on the indices as well.
00:56:47And sectorally as well, not much of a move at all.
00:56:50Let's just pull up Tata Motors to see what's happened there.
00:56:53Tata Motors has seen quite a bit of stress through the day.
00:56:58But that's also because of the DVR issue.
00:57:00Down still about a percent and a half.
00:57:02We've been focusing on autos a bit and Tata Motors taking a knock right since this morning.
00:57:07Let me just get a quick call from you, Aditya, on Tata Motors at this level.
00:57:11Approaching its 200 DMH, Amarnath.
00:57:13So very interesting level to watch out for.
00:57:15I'll still wait before I initiate a fresh long position.
00:57:18If in trade tomorrow Tata Motors does hold on to levels of 950 or maybe 940 on the downside,
00:57:24I could look for a short covering rally all the way back to levels of 1050.
00:57:28However, if it breaks 940 levels, then maybe I'll wait for further correction in Tata Motors to initiate a fresh long position.
00:57:34Talking of short positions at current levels, no, I would avoid because, again,
00:57:38clearly it's approaching its 200 DMH, which has been acting as a major support level for the stock.
00:57:43Okay, Kush, I'm going to come to you on an index call, actually.
00:57:47And I know you've been talking about it through the afternoon.
00:57:51But looking at the levels that we are set to close at with the Nifty above the 25,400 mark,
00:57:57I know you're not seeing runaway gains, but we've not seen huge weakness either.
00:58:02What would be your position on the Nifty and the Bank Nifty, say, for the next two days,
00:58:07before a Thursday morning tomorrow is the day that you take that position?
00:58:11What would be your call?
00:58:13Considering that a 50 basis point rate cut is also something that is being contemplated?
00:58:19That's what kind of worries me.
00:58:21What if that doesn't come about?
00:58:23Will the market take a 25 basis point?
00:58:25And, you know, hence the word of caution.
00:58:28Ideal scenario on this would be don't take a trade.
00:58:31There are enough and more technical indicators suggesting that there could be pressure on the Nifty.
00:58:35But, you know, as I said at the start of the show, if you need to take one,
00:58:38then perhaps Bank Nifty is the index that you should focus on.
00:58:41The levels, the key levels on this one to watch for are 51, 600, 650, you know, as a support zone.
00:58:48On the upside, you're looking at a 50 to 500 and a 50 to 800.
00:58:52If I want to consider a long position, Bank Nifty is the index that I'll play with.
00:58:57Nifty for now, I will continue to just monitor.
00:59:00If I have an existing position, I will make sure that I place my stop loss close to the 21, 25,100, 25,200 kind of support zone.
00:59:10Got it. Okay. Aditya Kush, gentlemen, thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us today on the show.
00:59:15Really appreciate your time.
00:59:16Pleasure.
00:59:17Let's start wrapping up the markets for you.
00:59:18It's for you quiet as she goes.
00:59:20It's been that kind of a day yet again for the Nifty.
00:59:23So extremely flat, all indices flat.
00:59:26So no big changes there.
00:59:27I mean, you look at IT, banking, mid cap, small cap, it's been a flattish performance across.
00:59:32Let's get the heat map up on the screen and show you what's moving and what's not within the large cap space at least.
00:59:38So even Stevens, by the way, that's part one.
00:59:40And you can see it right here.
00:59:41It's CL Tech and Infia bobbing between the red and the green.
00:59:43TCS just marginally in the green.
00:59:45So that's IT for you.
00:59:46What's corrected today?
00:59:47Tata Motors has been the biggest cruiser since moment one.
00:59:52Just that it's recouped some of those losses.
00:59:54There is weakness in Tata Steel, JSW Steel.
00:59:57So some of those ferrous commodity names have come off in the session today.
01:00:02Divis corrects two days after gaining for nine days.
01:00:05But aside of that, nothing noteworthy, if you will.
01:00:08On the gaining side, Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto make their presence felt.
01:00:13Airtel yet another day of gains.
01:00:15Remember NTPC and Power Grid yesterday were up in trade.
01:00:18NTPC is yet again up in trade today.
01:00:20But auto selectively have actually been on the gaining side as well in the session today.
01:00:26And some bit of recouping of losses for select FMCG like Britannia.
01:00:30But not too much of action in the large caps, unfortunately.
01:00:33Yeah, absolutely.
01:00:34Hero Motor is interesting though.
01:00:35And that whole two-wheeler versus passenger vehicle story playing out.
01:00:40I just want to pull up what the broader indices are doing in the last few minutes of trade.
01:00:45And nothing too great on the mid-cap either.
01:00:48Spot a weakness there, actually.
01:00:50Not massively, but yes, definitely in the red.
01:00:52Same on the small cap, perhaps even worse.
01:00:55We'll pull up the advance-decline ratio as we have finally closed for the day.
01:00:58And while the nifty happens to stick around to its levels,
01:01:03but you're seeing that the market breadth was definitely negative.
01:01:07So that cautious note ahead of the Fed announcement continues.
01:01:11And you won't know tomorrow either.
01:01:12So tomorrow could be another day of not having too much movement.
01:01:15We'll just quickly pull up the top gainers and losers of the day.
01:01:19And sectorally, I mean, it's really about stock-specific kind of stories.
01:01:24Godfrey Phillips has continued to get hammered for the last several days.
01:01:27Suzlon finally seeing some profit booking coming in.
01:01:30And that really is the kind of view and mood, right?
01:01:36Some of your PSUs, defence, some of those players not doing too well, not even in rail.
01:01:41On the winning side, of course, you have MGL on the basis of that note.
01:01:45Varun Beverages after the knock yesterday, climbing back up.
01:01:48And then a century and blue dart.
01:01:50Gautam Jagravit on that edible oils thing as well.
01:01:52Yesterday up and up today as well.
01:01:54I don't know how much it really benefits at the end of it.
01:01:58Maybe more sentimental than anything else.
01:02:00Yeah, the Motilal Aswal note though, very constructive there.
01:02:05Be there as it may.
01:02:06For now, from Tamanna and me and the team that put this show together.
01:02:09Thanks so much for watching.
01:02:10Be back with all the action tomorrow, which is the day when the Fed will announce its big decision.