#Sensex, #Nifty recoup losses as bank stocks lead gains.
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00:00 order end of the spectrum. That's the simplest way to put it. Large caps are doing OK. Nifty
00:00:04 about a third of a percent led predominantly by Nifty Bank. And we'll talk in detail about
00:00:09 valuations for Nifty Bank and other non-financial services. But plus the reason why the Nifty Bank
00:00:15 may be up today. But the mid caps and the small caps are sulking. There is clear pressure there.
00:00:21 Though off the lows of the day I would suspect the small cap index should come up on a screen first
00:00:26 by 2 percent lower. We can just have the intraday of the small cap first before we get the heat map
00:00:30 up on the screen. And the intraday of the small cap would probably show you that the index is
00:00:35 slightly off. I may be wrong. I think it's slightly off from the lows of today. So there you are. The
00:00:40 lows hit somewhere here. And I think we've bounced back a little bit. So which is maybe a good sign.
00:00:45 Get the heat map up on the screen and show you what's moving and what's not on the Nifty. And
00:00:49 we'll also maybe do a Nifty 500 map afterwards. But banks at the top of the pile. Kotak Bank,
00:00:55 Access Bank right up on your screen. Just doing well. I think what is giving companies also IT.
00:01:00 So HCL Tech is up about a percent. There is some strength in TCS up about half a percent. So when
00:01:05 banks and IT do well. Very difficult for the index to come off. Never mind the cuts that we've seen
00:01:12 in economy linked sectors today. So Adani Enterprises, Ultratech, NTPC, Adani POS, JSW.
00:01:21 The economy linked pieces have come off quite rapidly in the session today. And I'm sure Harsh
00:01:25 will mark the entire bucket of broader end of the spectrum stocks. But if you can just get the Nifty
00:01:30 500 winners and losers on the screen once just to show you how Harsh, while it's widespread,
00:01:39 it's financials which are ruling the roost when it comes to the losers. Well, yes, absolutely.
00:01:43 Especially on the non-banking side of things. IIFL, Capri Global. Again, Capri Global event-based,
00:01:51 IFL event-based. So a little bit of... GM Finance event-based. Yes, GM Financial event-based.
00:01:56 But nonetheless, some of that is rubbing off on some of the other players. Let me pull up
00:02:00 something like an L&T Finance down roughly 8% in trade today. Let's pull up something like a
00:02:07 Mannapuram, Sriram Finance. All three of them are sharply lower. Again, the sector at large is
00:02:16 buzzing either positive, either negative. And that's the nature of things in financials,
00:02:20 at least today. Let's pull out an AB Capital as well. And again, that one is deep in the red.
00:02:26 If we can also for a minute, try and pull up something like IFL Securities 361 to try and
00:02:33 see that there is an impact there as well from everything that's happening in IFL Finance.
00:02:38 So there you go. IFL Securities 5% lower. 361 is 3% lower today after a 2% cut seen yesterday as
00:02:47 well. But outside of that, Gas stocks in focus after that Citi's note on MGL. And therefore,
00:02:55 you're seeing some reaction on IGL as well on the back of gas prices as well. So a few movers
00:03:01 within the gas space, MGL also, if we can pull that up, you'll see that that one also has an
00:03:08 impact. But among all the losers, we have a few winners, which I want to talk about
00:03:14 before we start the larger conversation. Tata Chemicals, Natco Pharma is up 3.7%. Not sure why
00:03:20 though, but Tata Chemicals up 8.5% because it owns, of course, a stake in Tata Sons.
00:03:26 And that is why that one is buzzing up nearly 9%. You have an REC, which is doing fairly well,
00:03:33 decently on a tough day of trade. They have announced a board meeting for an interim
00:03:41 dividend to happen middle of this month. But outside of that, you have Muthoot,
00:03:46 Updata Services, Avas, all three of them buzzing. Muthoot Finance, if we can pull that one up,
00:03:53 Updata Services as well as Avas on the back of positive notes. Avas was down yesterday,
00:03:58 so the 2% uptick will be a welcome. But Muthoot Finance, yes, that's the one, 1.8% higher in trade
00:04:05 today as well. Of course, IAFL's impact rubbing off on some of the gold loan financiers.
00:04:11 Yes, indeed. And there's a small graphic that we have around why Tata Chemicals would be the
00:04:20 Lone Ranger of sorts, which has done well. Maybe we can pull it up just before we go to our guests.
00:04:25 But if you just look at the Tata Sons proposed IPO that is going to come up at some point of time,
00:04:31 four companies own stakes in Tata Sons, and Tata Power, Tata Chemicals are amongst those. But
00:04:37 there's a table that we have which shows how the stake of Tata Chemicals in Tata Sons is about
00:04:45 73% of its overall market cap. So little surprise it's up two days on a trot. Jay Bala of Cash the
00:04:53 Chaos joins us on the show as on the technicals. Vijay Chopra of Enoch Ventures on the fundamentals.
00:04:59 Jay, I mean, both of you, thanks so much for joining in. Jay, it's looking particularly
00:05:03 bad for the broader end of the spectrum. You reckon, I mean, are there supports
00:05:08 at some point of time in the near term or could this continue for a bit?
00:05:11 See, I've been saying that this resembles a distribution for the market. But as long as
00:05:19 the small cap index stays about 15200 and Nifty stays about 21860, both these,
00:05:28 the broader market will stay out of trouble. If that supports were to break, then we are in for
00:05:35 some problem. I'm talking about Nifty small cap 100, not Nifty small cap 250. So
00:05:41 watch these as very important parameters for the markets. But the market is carrying the
00:05:50 stamp of distribution and banking index is seeing some resumption. It could push to fresh
00:05:56 52-week highs or our fresh record high, but it will still be a medium term topping pattern.
00:06:01 Okay. So what's a trade to enact, Jay, on a day like this?
00:06:08 Yeah, you stay on the edge and continue to be bullish. You don't get too much to the middle.
00:06:14 And, you know, so use the nearest supports. The nearest supports for Nifty is about 21,
00:06:26 sorry, 21900. So as long as that stays, you can use intraday levels of about 22-300 as a very
00:06:33 important support and you can stay bullish on the markets. But know that we are at the last
00:06:38 stretch of this market smoke. Sure. Thanks for that, Jay. Vijay,
00:06:43 let me switch over to you. Your views on today's, especially on the broader markets on the fall
00:06:50 today. Good afternoon. Thanks for having me on the show. I think that in the kind of smart recovery
00:07:01 the markets have shown, this is indicating that there's going to be a range bound movement. So
00:07:06 markets are falling down for sure. The stocks are correcting, but when it comes back sharply,
00:07:12 it denotes that, you know, there's going to be a range bound movement. So although there would be
00:07:18 a correction, but I doubt there would be a crash because, you know, overall the fundamentals are
00:07:23 good. The GDP numbers are good. Tax collections are good. Market breadth is overall good.
00:07:28 There have been certain, you know, actions taken by SEBI and exchanges. You know, they have barred
00:07:35 mutual funds to take more money in the small cap space and mid cap space. So that's why we
00:07:41 are seeing such cuts in the small cap and mid cap companies. But there are scores of companies in
00:07:47 the mid cap space, which are very good. Fundamentals are excellent. And I don't think that,
00:07:52 you know, money is going to be pulled out from there. Wherever we see froth, definitely there's
00:07:56 going to be an exit. There might be some kind of a redemption pressure as well, although I'm not
00:08:02 sure about it. But again, money would flow into the large caps. Look at HDFC today. So I would
00:08:07 say that, you know, there are, you know, alluring opportunities in the large cap space. Look at an
00:08:13 ITC, Hindustan Lever, look at a Pidilite, look at, you know, an HDFC bank for that matter,
00:08:20 a Kotak bank. You know, these companies have corrected quite a bit, haven't participated at
00:08:24 all in this rally. So there are opportunities, especially in the banking space, I see. And of
00:08:29 course, the public sector banking, some mid cap stocks look excellent, you know, stocks like Bank
00:08:34 India, Union Bank, they look very good. The financials are good. The asset quality is good.
00:08:40 So, you know, look for opportunities, look for companies which haven't moved much,
00:08:44 and there is scope for an upside rather than, you know, chasing froth. So I would say that
00:08:51 there are opportunities in the market. And when market shows such smart recovery, so do participate
00:08:56 in buying into such sectors in such companies. Got your point, Vijay. Now, I just want to
00:09:01 quickly mark out, you have both Sensex and Nifty at record highs. It's a funny day,
00:09:07 Neeraj, for the benchmarks to clock a record high today. But Vijay, if I can quickly have your
00:09:15 one minute take, small and mid cap, is this a good, is this dip 2% on the Nifty small cap today,
00:09:23 lower? Is it a good day to buy? I would say quality mid caps, I like, I can name some if
00:09:30 you would suggest. But yes, stay out of froth, stay out of overvaluation. And don't chase frenzy.
00:09:38 I think chasing fundamentals is a good idea, good strategy rather than chasing frenzy.
00:09:45 So there are good opportunities. I can name few stocks.
00:09:47 Please, please name, Vijay, please. I think, you know, in the defence space,
00:09:52 there are two companies I like. One is special metals called Midhani, which is Mishra Dhatu
00:09:56 Nigam, which is a government of India company. And again, the other one is Garden Reach Shipyard,
00:10:01 a very good company in defence. So these two companies I like, they have corrected today.
00:10:07 But I think that if somebody buys with medium to long term perspective, these companies have
00:10:11 huge order books, both of them. And this makes them very interesting watch over next few months
00:10:18 and years. So these two companies I would like to recommend, one banking stock I've already
00:10:23 mentioned, Bank India, and one large cap stock I would like to recommend again,
00:10:27 a conservative sector pharma, Divislab. Divislab has started coming up. So presently at about 3550.
00:10:34 I think that, you know, this stock can, you know, clock about 4000 in some time.
00:10:40 Okay, Jai, what about stock recommendations from your end today, specific stocks?
00:10:47 Yeah, I have one bullish and one bearish. And I like Indian Energy Exchange on the bearish side.
00:10:56 Now it's been ranked as a performer. Since 2021, it's been trending lower. And the recent pullback
00:11:02 to about 158 is the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the 2024s move. So and the stock is cooling
00:11:10 off from there. And it looks like it can drop to about 130. So a stop at 158 and potential to drop
00:11:15 to 130 to 120. And on the bullish side, I like Linda India. I know after a short term under
00:11:24 performance, the stock seems to be coming out of a falling wedge pattern. And if it were to close
00:11:31 about 5650, 5700, that will complete the breakout pattern and a very low risk entry point. So the
00:11:39 stock is only about 5300. It has potential to climb its all time high past 6800.
00:11:44 Okay, very quickly viewers, before we take that break, need to mark the stock of the day.
00:11:49 And that is JM Financial clearly stands out down about 14%. There are many others,
00:11:54 IFL Finance has had a larger fall than JM Financial has, but JM Financial at about 11.5%
00:12:00 to 12% lower certainly deserves the mantle of the stock of the day simply because of the news flow
00:12:06 around it and what it could do potentially to maybe some of the other capital marketplace,
00:12:10 this kind of directive that has come in from the Reserve Bank of India. So do keep this one
00:12:14 as the one that is the key stock to monitor. Vijay, we really need to slip into a break. But
00:12:23 would you use fundamentally, would you use this dip into a name like JM Financial to add or would
00:12:28 you wait for the dust to settle? Well, I don't think right now it's the right time. So if at all
00:12:34 I want to be, I would be in Bajaj FinSev. This is one company which I like. Definitely, you know,
00:12:40 JM as the kind of experience and lineage it has, it has a lot of credit to its name. But yes,
00:12:46 I would wait for some time before getting into a JM Financial rather than if you want to really buy
00:12:51 and get into a financial stock or an NPFC, I think Bajaj FinSev is on the top deck and you should buy
00:12:58 that company. Okay. Well, let's take that break. As we hit that break, the other set of or rather
00:13:07 the other stock is of course, IFL Finance, which has had two days of a downtick. We spoke to AK
00:13:12 Purwar, who is the Chairman of IFL Finance on the compliance plan after the Reserve Bank's
00:13:18 restrictions. Listen in. The last couple of days, we had intensive meeting of the board.
00:13:25 And as a board and as a company, we have taken a view that we will strictly comply with
00:13:30 RBI regulations in letter as well as in speech. And we have substantially looked after all the
00:13:39 issues which have been concerned, which have been flipped by RBI. We have amended our policies. And
00:13:45 our effort is that by 31st March, we are able to carry out all the required changes, amendments,
00:13:52 remedial action in the company. If there could be a few left, but we definitely will also.
00:13:58 We are continuously going to engage with RBI to give them full satisfaction
00:14:02 as to our business and as to and all regard to our compliance also.
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00:17:37 Welcome back. Thanks for staying tuned to India Market Close on NGTV Profit.
00:17:41 Let me go across. We have both our guests, Jai as well as Vijay. Vijay, let me come to you.
00:17:47 Just before we slipped into this break, we were speaking about JM Financial and how you would rather wait and watch
00:17:55 as to how this one is playing out. Now, Vijay, this one is trading at roughly one times book,
00:18:01 maybe lesser than that now. And we saw 20 percent fall. Loan against shares is just about 8-9 percent of the loan book.
00:18:11 So, just want to try and understand. Is it more of a knee jerk? You know, it's very different from the IFL situation,
00:18:21 the way I'm looking at it, just trying to play devil's advocate. So, would you look at this at all differently?
00:18:27 Is there a different lens to this? Because this one is looking decently reasonable in terms of price.
00:18:35 Well, yes. JM Financial, for that matter, has never been a fast mover. It has never shown any fireworks.
00:18:43 Now, look at Paytm, you know where it started. So, first, their NBFC or the lending was, you know,
00:18:51 there was an objection over lending, over onboarding clients. And slowly and steadily, there were more skeletons in the cupboard,
00:18:57 including an ED inquiry. So, I don't know. You know, I think that the regulators are coming very harshly on NBFCs,
00:19:04 whether it's IFL or JM Financial. So, my sense is that why not wait? You know, people just pounced upon Paytm and bought again.
00:19:14 And, you know, still Paytm has not come out of the woods. So, why unnecessarily risk the capital?
00:19:20 Why not buy an ITC at this level and why JM Financial? So, there has to be a reason, a rationale why to get into a stock.
00:19:28 So, I would say that if at all you can buy Hindustan Lever, an ITC, a Divis Lab for that matter,
00:19:34 or an HDFC Bank for that matter, why to go into JM Financial? I would never recommend to risk capital, you know,
00:19:41 when the markets are at all-time high. Why not get into fundamentally strong stocks?
00:19:45 ITC, even if it goes down to 380, 370, you know, I won't be afraid because it is a fantastic dividend yield.
00:19:51 So, you would earn anyway more than an FD. So, you know, save your capital, let the market correct properly
00:19:57 and then, you know, a lot of these companies can be bought into. But again, I would recommend to be in majorly large caps or quality mid caps
00:20:06 and, you know, stories around defense, as I said. - Sure. Sure. Fully take your point and thank you so much for that.
00:20:15 Let me though quickly go across. We have Dhaval Ajmera, who is the director at Ajmera Realty and Infra.
00:20:22 Now, the news on this one is that they have raised around 500 odd crore in debt capital.
00:20:29 Some portion of this Dhaval is going to be used for repayment, some portion of this for the development of the Mumbai project.
00:20:37 Could you give us an overview as to what kind of numbers are we looking at and where would debt stand post the repayment of the debt?
00:20:45 So, you know, overall, what we have done is we've done a structured deal.
00:20:50 The idea behind this was that we are basically trying to make this entire transaction in a very secured way.
00:20:58 We have taken this deal in one of our projects, which is known as Ajmera Manhattan, where we are more than 60 percent of the project inventory already sold.
00:21:08 And, you know, it is a complete cost to complete with terms of the sales, what we have done.
00:21:15 And the cost which is required to complete is already been secured.
00:21:18 So now what we have done is we just leverage this project where we are absolutely sure and we are trying to, you know, reduce our corporate debt loan.
00:21:27 And which was at 540 right now, and we've reduced it by 200 by paying off from this project particularly.
00:21:34 And so entirely structuring is done in a way where our cost of debt is coming down from 12.3 percent to 11 percent.
00:21:43 And we are making it even more secure so that, you know, it is the cash flows are not affected.
00:21:49 It is given from the project itself. So overall, the cash flows becomes in a better way and in a structured way.
00:21:55 Understood. And so this 12.3 to 11 percent, that is going to be our cost of debt on the 500 crore is what I believe.
00:22:06 Yes. Yes. Understood. Understood. Understood. And how much does that save you in terms of interest cost on the incremental?
00:22:14 So incremental overall, it's about, you know, 1 percent. So overall, in the life cycle, about 15 to 18 crore.
00:22:22 OK. OK. Fair. OK. Understood. And, you know, with regard to where you'd like your debt levels to be at.
00:22:30 So currently, debt is roughly one is to one prior to you taking up this 500 crore repaying and doing this restructure.
00:22:38 Where do you expect that to sit at now? This is going to be a reasonable level for maybe the next one to two years.
00:22:44 Or would you also require more cash flow for certain other projects?
00:22:48 So our endeavor is that we want to reduce our corporate loan to the maximum.
00:22:53 And that is what we are trying to do right now. We have started with this first phase of structuring it to our Manhattan project.
00:23:00 While with our projects coming in, the debt will continue, but that will only be for working capital requirement and cash flow management.
00:23:07 But our endeavor is to reduce our corporate debt loan to absolutely zero, which we have endeavored to do it over the next two to three years time.
00:23:16 And this is the first step towards it. In the next few, probably this financial year, you know, the coming financial year,
00:23:23 we'll see a lot of other debt from the corporate level coming up.
00:23:27 Right. I know you did mention what your corporate debt level number was, but could you re-mention that?
00:23:32 So overall, we are at about 800 levels right now. Correct. So we continue to stay there with this structuring.
00:23:39 But now it is becoming more project level debts, which is managed from the project cash flows.
00:23:44 Understood. So it's more of SPV level debt that you're taking over rather than at the whole co-level.
00:23:50 Understood. And therefore, you will run down this 800 crore to zero is what I understand three years from now.
00:23:56 Not really. Out of this, 500 is corporate and 300 is project level.
00:24:01 So 300 probably will continue and end with the lifecycle of the project.
00:24:05 From the 500 to 100, we've already taken out and the balance 300 will also slowly, slowly start reducing.
00:24:11 Understood. And with regard to new projects, what's the kind of pipeline like and what's the kind of cash flow visibility like going into Q4 as well as into Q1 FY25?
00:24:23 So this year we've announced about six projects. Yes.
00:24:26 And we want our overall top line from these projects are going to be about 5000 crores,
00:24:32 which will be realized over the next two to three years time.
00:24:35 And the Q4 is also looking interesting and it is in line with our market estimates of sales revenue of 1000 crores for this financial year.
00:24:47 And we should be crossing and nearly being there towards the year end.
00:24:53 So thank you so much for that, Dhaval.
00:24:56 It's good getting all of that perspective with regard to what's happening at Ajmera, at least the announcement today.
00:25:03 We've tried to cover that. The stock absolutely flat on an otherwise very tough day of trade.
00:25:09 But Neeraj was mentioning with regard to Tata Chemicals, we had a chart with regard to how much Tata Chemicals holds in Tata Suns and the break up.
00:25:21 As of this morning, maybe as of last night or this morning.
00:25:24 So Tata Chemicals market cap early morning was 27000 crores.
00:25:29 It's gone up eight, nine percent now. But the stake value of Tata Chemicals stake in Tata Suns is, in case this data doesn't quite sit well,
00:25:39 but it is essentially the stake, the stake value of the companies in Tata Suns.
00:25:45 OK, four group companies hold stake in Tata Suns and Tata Motors, Tata Chemicals, Tata Power, Indian Motors.
00:25:50 Now, let's go back to the chart. So if you just look at the percentage of market cap of Tata Chemicals,
00:25:58 that the stake in Tata Suns is effectively coming out to, that's about 73 percent before this eight percent up move today.
00:26:09 But after the eight percent up move yesterday, for the others to about 10 percent, 10 percent, seven percent, not chop change, but small.
00:26:15 For Tata Chemicals, it's a really big deal. And which is why I think a stock in the last two days has had such a strong move.
00:26:22 Now, could it end? Who knows? Would this, could it actually do another five, 10, 15 percent? Maybe.
00:26:28 It's actually now about 10 percent and going really, really strong. Now, Jay Bala, fundamental business, notwithstanding, this is a technical trigger.
00:26:38 The IPO is still some time away, but the stock has given a really good move. Can it extend this?
00:26:45 Oh, definitely, Neeraj. If you can pull up the weekly charts for your audience, it will show that the stock has been consolidating between 880 and 1100 for the past 14 months.
00:26:58 So once the stock goes sideways and then breaks out, that kind of consolidation and breaks out brings in the animal spirits for the stock.
00:27:08 And the bare minimum for this stock is about 1400 and can do much more. So, you know, it's a very significant breakout.
00:27:15 There's a minor resistance of the all time high of about 1216. I think that will get taken out. But it has great potential.
00:27:22 Sure. Point taken, Vijay, if I can come to you, because this one since the 2020 restructure for shareholders holding it at that point of time, it's been a phenomenal value unlock story that has played out and could play out potentially.
00:27:45 So, your views with regard to the possibility of the play out is one, but the second more important piece is valuations at this point.
00:27:55 Well, I think that valuations are still not stretched, although I think there might be an up move, it might touch 1200, 1250, but again, there would be a retracement.
00:28:07 In the longer run, the stock has become fantastically good and valuation wise, I don't think that Tata Chemical is stretched at all.
00:28:16 So one of the flagship chemical companies of Tata Group and definitely this value unlocking of Tata Senses is a huge upside for the stock.
00:28:27 So I don't think that valuation wise, Tata Chemical is stretched at all. It has been doing consistent business over a period of time. Sales have been more or less consistent.
00:28:37 March 23, they did about 16,700, 800 crores of sales. The EPS has been consistently growing. The profit has been growing.
00:28:47 So I don't think that at any point of time, Tata Chemical's valuation part is stretched. But yes, I am a very conservative investor.
00:28:57 I think whenever there is such an up move, there is a retracement. If at all you get this company back again, maybe around 1040, 1050 odd levels, again a great buy for the longer term.
00:29:08 The problem actually for this one has never not been valuations as much as growth. I mean, March 2022, they did about 3,500 crores.
00:29:17 December 2023, they've done 3,700 crores on a quarterly basis. So the problem always has been that there is lack of growth.
00:29:25 Commodity chemical business doesn't quite do well. But for now, the Tata Senses IPO getting it excited.
00:29:30 What we'll do is we'll take a break, come back very quickly, get an Agam to talk about what's happening at the derivative end of the market.
00:29:37 Try and get in some more ideas from Jay Bala as well. Stay tuned.
00:29:42 Thank you.
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00:33:01 Welcome back. You're watching India Market Close here on NDTV Profit. We have Agam standing by with the latest on the derivatives.
00:33:08 What are the F&OQs telling you, Agam?
00:33:11 Well, so far, we've had a fairly steady day of trade, at least for the bank Nifty, considering it was the weekly options expiry in the last five minutes.
00:33:19 We have seen a little bit of a correction. It's not a big one, but it has lost out on the 48,000 mark.
00:33:25 But I'm going to start off with the Nifty. The Nifty advancing, and more open interest added now after three straight days of very little change in OI.
00:33:34 And for the bank Nifty, let's pull that up. And that, of course, will be in focus right now.
00:33:39 Again, as I was mentioning, it's hanging around the 48,000 mark at the moment, and unwinding coming through as far as this one goes.
00:33:47 Moving on to the options market. Tomorrow, of course, we move into the Nifty expiry.
00:33:52 Let's move on and talk about the overall open interest distribution.
00:33:56 And as we move in tomorrow, we are still looking at a roughly 700 to 800 odd point range where, you know, between 22,000 on the lower end and, of course, 23,000 on the higher end.
00:34:09 Well, moving on to the bank Nifty, as I was mentioning, 48,000 was where the action was, as you can see here.
00:34:16 And that's exactly where we are likely to close around.
00:34:19 Moving on to stocks, let's pull up that list of stocks which is seeing an increase in open interest and MGL, IGL, Samadhan, L&D, Finn and Ramkussemin.
00:34:28 All of them looking at fresh shorts at the moment. And in terms of stocks which is seeing unwinding, short covering for ICICI Prudential and Muthud Finance.
00:34:36 But on the other hand, Tata Motors, BHEL and Interglobe Aviation looking at some amount of weakness and thereby looking at longs unwinding coming through.
00:34:45 Well, it's not turned out to be too volatile a day of trade at least for the bank Nifty.
00:34:51 Say for something like the Nifty which also recovered in the last couple of hours, well, this turning out to be a positive day for the benchmarks at the moment.
00:35:01 Sure, positive day on benchmarks and how, but the small and mid caps not doing as well.
00:35:09 At least that's the quick take when it comes to F&O. Thanks so much Agam for all of that.
00:35:16 But let me quickly take it across to Vijay. Vijay, you know, on a day when we're seeing regulated entities, RBI regulated entities face pressure.
00:35:28 On the flip side, we're seeing a positive reaction where the Nifty Bank is concerned.
00:35:33 What's your sense, firstly, with regard to why this is so?
00:35:39 We know that private sector banks are decently valued. Maybe that is one reason.
00:35:44 But what's your sense? Is this kind of rally sustainable?
00:35:49 Well, the money is going into large caps. Look at Kotak, look at HDFC Bank, look at, you know, public sector banks.
00:35:59 The money is flowing there and that's why we are seeing a lot of stability in Bank Nifty.
00:36:05 So look at the price to book of HDFC Bank. I think that it is fairly valued.
00:36:11 And at 1440 or somebody who holds a medium term perspective, I think 1600, 1700 is quite possible.
00:36:17 So even large cap banks like ICICI, Kotak, even Indus, it looks good.
00:36:24 So that is the reason why we are seeing stability in Bank Nifty.
00:36:29 And BFCs, I'm sure that, you know, these people have a huge pressure of growth.
00:36:34 We saw this with DHFL and India Bulls Housing. I hope you remember when, you know, both these companies crashed.
00:36:40 You know, in the rut of increasing their market share, they were doing substandard loans.
00:36:45 This is what Paytm was also doing. You know, the KYC norms were not good and they were not, you know, managing the compliances well.
00:36:53 They were not doing the due diligence well. They were, you know, doling out loans on substandard LAL/DORA kind properties.
00:37:00 So I think that, you know, the public sector banks and the private sector banks, especially the public sector ones, have come a long way.
00:37:08 You know, now it is not easy to get a loan from a public sector bank.
00:37:11 So I think that banks are quite well placed and we might see an up move.
00:37:17 And this probably is a sustainable rally, you know, if at all HDFC moves, HDFC Bank moves another 100, 200 rupees from here.
00:37:25 So for sure, we are going to see Bank Nifty levels going up.
00:37:30 Right. Right, Vijay. Jai, your take with regard to the Bank Nifty on charts?
00:37:36 I'm not sure if we covered that, but your take?
00:37:41 See, I always look at the markets from a medium term perspective and the short term perspective.
00:37:46 So, look, I know I presented this chart for, you know, an audience with Neeraj in Jan 2022.
00:37:54 And the, you know, the Nifty banks are high, about 49,000.
00:38:01 So very significant resistance from the long term perspective.
00:38:05 If you connect the highs of 2008, past 2015, '16, '18, '19, they all coincide with that internal trend line.
00:38:14 And this is also an internal channel out there.
00:38:17 So the banking index got very significant resistance at about 48,000 to 49,000.
00:38:23 And, you know, so this is coming to a very important, you know, resistance for the overall market.
00:38:29 And, you know, it gets too technical to talk about it, but, you know, it is, I can just say it's a kind of a top information to make it simpler for people's understanding.
00:38:42 So, you know, be very cautious. And also, you know, as an aside, just as a general aside, you know, March is known to be a giant killer of trends, both bullish and bearish.
00:38:51 If the trend is bullish, it can reverse when the reversal happens. It will not be a short reversal.
00:38:56 Recall, you know, the 2008 tech bubble bust in March. Recall the 2008 grand financial crisis bottomed in March.
00:39:03 The COVID low bottomed in March. It's not just one asset class, it's also multiple asset classes.
00:39:07 If you look at silver, the giant top at $50 also occurred in March.
00:39:12 So be very careful when the trend change occurs. March is known to be a giant killer of trends.
00:39:21 Right. Giant killer of trends. Let's wait and watch as to how that hopefully plays out.
00:39:28 But thank you so much, Vijay, you know, for answering all of those questions.
00:39:35 Jay, you know, we'll come back to you. But while we are at it, we also have with us Andrew Holland, who is the CEO at Avendus Capital, to talk to us about all that's happening in markets.
00:39:51 Andrew, thanks so much for doing this with us.
00:39:55 My pleasure. Thank you.
00:39:57 Andrew, what's your sense? Small and mid cap valuations, you know, we saw a bit of a correction, but now we're starting to see a bit of a recovery.
00:40:05 Do you therefore expect a larger correction in the small and mid cap space?
00:40:15 Not really. I mean, I think we've been expecting that large caps.
00:40:19 I mean, we've been talking about it for weeks, right? Maybe a month.
00:40:22 But the small and mid caps have really outperformed and that large caps, you know, we're probably looking better value.
00:40:28 And that's really all there is to it. I mean, the fundamentals of a lot of these small cap companies have not have not changed.
00:40:36 Maybe, you know, prices got pushed up a little bit higher.
00:40:39 So there's nothing you know, there's nothing I'm seeing that's so untoward that, you know, I should be out of mid caps and small caps.
00:40:46 So if you have the opportunity to buy your favorite company, these are the kind of days that you do it.
00:40:54 Andrew, let's kind of probe that further. These are the days to do it.
00:40:58 I mean, would it be in the financial space or would you look at the mid cap and small cap companies in the non financial space?
00:41:05 It depends on the things that you want to play.
00:41:09 So, you know, for example, if you wanted to play into the kind of the whole spending, you know, kind of premiumization,
00:41:17 then you could look at the, you know, the beverages or if you want to do it on spending towards experiences,
00:41:24 then obviously the hotel and airline sectors.
00:41:27 These are the kind of companies where the runway is going to be very long for them in terms of growth.
00:41:33 So these are the kind of days that, you know, you can look at them again and say, you know, they're being hit for no reason.
00:41:39 I can I can buy because long term the prospects haven't changed.
00:41:44 What do you make of these actions taken,
00:41:48 corrective actions against some of the NBFCs or or, you know, non banks, if you will,
00:41:55 whether lending or non lending financials and do their present value because of the corrective moves that have happened?
00:42:02 Or would you be circumspect? Yeah, I mean, you know, until the clarity comes out,
00:42:11 you know, the RBI taking these actions for certain reasons, which, you know,
00:42:14 I mean, see what you're putting up on your on your screen.
00:42:19 But, you know, until until, you know, the clarity is out or it's been resolved, whatever problems they have,
00:42:25 then it's just better to be on the sidelines. And perhaps this is why the banking, the larger banks are having,
00:42:31 you know, a bit of a run. It's a kind of a move to safety, move to quality,
00:42:36 you know, which maybe we haven't been seeing for some time. So, you know, in my in my view, I just wait.
00:42:44 There's no need to rush. So, and Andrew, let me take a cue from your last answer.
00:42:51 With regard to large cap banks, they have seen a large underperformance.
00:42:57 In fact, Neeraj and me were speaking earlier. And what we were picking in terms of trends is after such a large underperformance,
00:43:05 we've always seen, especially the Nifty Bank Index itself outperformed by quite a bit.
00:43:12 Do you expect that outperformance to come maybe over the next 12 months or so?
00:43:17 Is that something that one can expect? Yeah, I think so.
00:43:22 And the reason behind that is twofold, really. One is, I mean, the announcements were made just today by Bloomberg to include the bond index.
00:43:31 I'm sure, you know, FTSE will do the same at some point.
00:43:35 So, you know, we do know that flows are going to come into the bond markets.
00:43:39 We should push yields down. And, you know, with that kind of inflow,
00:43:45 you could argue that the RBI has the ability to reduce rates, even if even if it's before the Fed,
00:43:51 because it won't have that much impact on the currency. Now, if that was the case,
00:43:56 and that's the narrative that the market might want to play out, that's good for the banks,
00:44:01 because obviously they've been under pressure with NIMS and deposits.
00:44:06 So that would be for them. And that's why you probably get that outperformance.
00:44:11 Andrew, anything within the PSU basket which you would prefer over the private banks at this point?
00:44:23 Listen, if I'm liking the banking sector, then I would look at the PSUs as well.
00:44:27 But I would rather be with private banks where I think the underperformance has been quite significant over the past six months or so.
00:44:38 Andrew, I have one final question. This disappointment around some of the gas stocks,
00:44:43 is it by virtue of the strong language alone, or is it that the market would punish almost anything
00:44:50 that would have government intervention, which was not earlier perceived to be the case?
00:44:57 Yeah, I mean, you know, that's always the case with a lot of industries where there is government regulation,
00:45:05 which can hurt the earnings or potential earnings of the companies.
00:45:10 But I think you have to live with that and have your eyes wide open when you go into these stocks.
00:45:15 So it's not unusual for this to happen, and it happens many times,
00:45:20 and then you'll see the recovery as they normalize the earnings.
00:45:25 Okay. Andrew, much appreciate you taking the time out and being with us for a quick perspective.
00:45:31 Thanks for your time.
00:45:32 My pleasure. Thank you.
00:45:33 That's Andrew Allen saying that this might be the time to buy into some of the mid-sized companies
00:45:39 that you always would have wanted to buy. Of course, we spoke about the gas companies,
00:45:44 and MGL, IGL, etc. in focus. Cities cut the target price, and of course,
00:45:51 the statements from the minister apparently the reason.
00:45:54 Mihika Johnson, she's looked at all the developments behind and what brokerages are making of it. Mihika.
00:46:00 Yes. So first one is CNG prices are cut by Mahanagar Gas in Mumbai by 2.5 rupees per kg,
00:46:07 and they are now at 73.5 rupees per kg, effective from today.
00:46:11 Second, we have a city note which has downgraded its rating on Mahanagar Gas to a sell
00:46:16 and cut the target price by 5% to 1,405. And this is mainly on regulatory risk to its margins.
00:46:23 Now, the oil minister, the latest industry event stated that the gas companies are not passing on
00:46:28 the full benefit of the reforms to the end consumers, and they're willing to take drastic steps
00:46:32 in order to ensure full benefit. Additionally, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board
00:46:37 had also announced that they're going to set up an expert level committee to look into the existing framework.
00:46:42 What this basically does is creates a potential overhang in terms of sustainability of the company's margins.
00:46:48 Why Mahanagar Gas has the most to lose is because it is more susceptible to the regulatory framework
00:46:53 because its per unit EBITDA trades at a premium. According to Citi, the current EBITDA margins
00:46:59 for Mahanagar Gas stand at 13 rupees per standard cubic of meter of gas, whereas
00:47:04 Indraprastha Gas and Gujarat Gas peers stand at rupees 8 and rupees 5.
00:47:09 Sure, thanks for that, Mihika. Jai, your views with regard to 1MGL on charts, how does it look?
00:47:18 Today, of course, a tough day for that one. But even outside of that, some other gas stocks.
00:47:25 Yeah, see, strangely, Mahanagar Gas is probably the strongest amongst them.
00:47:33 But I know from a short term perspective, the trend may have exhausted, but from a medium to slightly higher time frame,
00:47:41 say from six to nine months time frame, this could be just a medium term correction that takes the stock
00:47:47 to somewhere close to 1100 or slightly below 1100. And once that's done, it will probably consolidate and resume the uptrend.
00:47:54 So stomach some pain for the short term. But the trend looks incomplete in the medium term.
00:48:02 Sure. And, you know, Jai, with regard to just the manner in which MGL has moved,
00:48:14 I know that short to medium term, you've given your view largely, but how should one look at it in terms of levels?
00:48:23 Could you give us a few levels in your view?
00:48:27 Yeah, see, as a trader, you should wear a trader's hat. The immediate support is about 1260.
00:48:34 So, you know, if you are a medium term investor, you can see through the pain.
00:48:41 But if you're a trader, you can attempt some short term scalping around 1260.
00:48:46 Once that the market trades near that level, that could be a short term bounce back.
00:48:51 But that will most likely be a dead cat bounce. And, you know, probably I'm just trying to catch all the movements, which is very dangerous.
00:49:01 So, you know, around 1260 to 1380, 1400 will be the anticipated movement.
00:49:07 And now as a sensible trader, one should wait for the stock to complete a correction closer to 1100.
00:49:15 Wait for the dust to settle down and then look at, you know, a position trading from that point onwards.
00:49:21 Fair. So thank you for that, Jai. And Jai, with regard to, you know, we're roughly nine minutes to close for the day.
00:49:29 Your BTST, STBT strategy?
00:49:33 Yeah, Varun Beverages looks pretty interesting. And, you know, the stock can hold about 1395 for probably tomorrow and probably get to 1480.
00:49:44 But even from a slightly higher time frame, the stock is about 1365 and probably has a potential takeoff 52 week high.
00:49:52 So, you know, it's a BTST and also a potential position.
00:49:58 Sure. So thanks for that, Jai. But let's shift focus a little bit.
00:50:04 We spoke with Hiren Veth earlier today, listening to why he calls the recent actions by the regulators, the USFDA moment for Indian financials.
00:50:16 The financial services industry may be going through its USFDA moment. Right.
00:50:23 So if you know what I'm saying, in 2015 and 16, when, you know, similar regulatory interventions were done in the pharma industry,
00:50:37 first we thought, oh, it's just, you know, one off plant, one off company.
00:50:43 And then one after the other, you had almost every pharma company coming under very severe scrutiny.
00:50:51 So obviously the intensity was different. In some cases, they got an import alert.
00:50:57 And now something similar is happening that the RBI is, you know, actually asking you to stop a certain line of business.
00:51:06 Right. Obviously, that's going to impact growth. And to some extent in the near term, it could even impact the sentiment of the sector.
00:51:17 You know, as I said, longer run, it's all good. But in the short to medium term, I do believe it will have an impact.
00:51:26 So that's Hiren's view with regard to, of course, the financials.
00:51:32 But unperturbed with regard to where the Bank Nifty is, it's clearly leading the rally.
00:51:38 But the other one, which is silently doing very, very well as well, in fact, now doing better than the Bank Nifty is the Nifty IT index.
00:51:46 Jayap, your views with regard to this one. It's up and away in trade.
00:51:51 We're sitting at the high point, in fact, for the day on the Nifty IT.
00:51:56 Any specific calls that you have within IT which you like?
00:52:01 I'll take a sector call first. You know, basically, the significant support for the Nifty IT index comes about 34,200.
00:52:10 There's a minor support, which the index broke today at about 36,200. It went below that to somewhere, that is 100 and change and it's bounced back.
00:52:19 So, you know, despite TCS going to record highs, I've said before that the price action looks a little bit suspect.
00:52:26 And, you know, barring TCS, most of the frontline IT names, TCS and HCL Tech, I would put it as the leaders within the pack.
00:52:34 The rest of the names like Infosys, Wipro, LTI, MindTree, they all look weaker than TCS and HCL Tech.
00:52:42 So, if you want a relative trade, you should be in TCS and HCL Tech rather than Infosys and Wipro.
00:52:48 So, watch 34,200 as a hawk. If that were given, it's a little bit of distance now, but that will mark a trend shift for the sector.
00:52:57 And I believe the US tech sector, which is being led by AI play, is also nearing its end.
00:53:06 And Nvidia has probably got a little bit of higher push to somewhere close to 920, 970.
00:53:11 Once the trend change comes through for the US tech sector, I think the Indian tech sector will also take a hitting.
00:53:18 But until that point, stay with the trend. 34,200 is the bull bar divide.
00:53:24 Okay. Some other losers include NW3 Real Estate, which is down about 9% in trade today on the news that they have to surrender an SEZ that they had.
00:53:36 So, that is to be kept in mind. The other aspect is two things around banks and financials.
00:53:42 So, while banks are going up and there is a DSP/MF note, which speaks about how in the past,
00:53:49 whenever the Bank Nifty aggregate price to book, trailing price to book has been below 2,
00:53:54 the resultant gains have been very strong. And four instances in the past when something like this has happened,
00:54:01 each time that the price to book was lower than 2, the resultant gains have been strong.
00:54:06 So, this is one such moment. The other thing, Harsh, if you just want to bring up the thing around NBFCs and the past valuations relative to,
00:54:14 or the current valuations relative to what the valuations have been in the past.
00:54:18 Well, yeah, absolutely, Neeraj. So, I mean, this was rather pointed out by you than me.
00:54:24 And what basically it makes a case for is whenever valuations have for the Nifty Bank have slipped below the 2 times price to book value,
00:54:36 there is a case where the Nifty thereafter, in the immediate year thereafter, could see a very, very strong rally.
00:54:47 The extent of that rally over the next three years could be between the 50 to 125 percent in absolute returns over the next three years that one could see.
00:55:00 And therefore, it makes a case that the Nifty Bank, when it slips below 2, and this has happened in four instances in the past, 2009, '16, '18 and 2020.
00:55:11 And in all of those times, it has thereafter shown a significant rally.
00:55:18 And that's basically a possibility given the way in which valuations currently are at within the Nifty Bank as well as the financials.
00:55:29 Well, clearly showing that maybe, just maybe, in select cases at least, who knows, there could be value as well.
00:55:40 Actually, Jai, if we haven't spoken about Bajaj Finance, a word there, that's the big boy that is corrected quite significantly from the highs.
00:55:49 Today showed some signs of fight in the morning.
00:55:52 Is this or around these are levels from where this could have some benefits?
00:55:59 See, the stats for both the Bajaj Finance and Bajaj students aren't encouraging.
00:56:06 And I know I tweeted a few weeks back, about four weeks back when the stock broke about 70-40, Bajaj Finance, I said it's breaking down from a head and shoulders breakdown.
00:56:19 And the potential for this to drop is about, I know it's quite deep, is about 5,600, 5,400.
00:56:24 So be a little cautious here. And this can continue.
00:56:28 And likewise, Bajaj FinCe has a potential to correct to about 1,200.
00:56:32 So the medium to long term might be looking good, but we have a fair bit of short term pain to stomach.
00:56:40 So, you know, it's not, if it's anything, it's just a bit too early to get into the stock right now.
00:56:46 Perfect. So thanks for that roundup.
00:56:50 But I also want to try and understand your views on the nifty media last off before we go across to close.
00:56:56 On the nifty media, we're seeing a bit of, I mean, a bit of pressure today, roughly 3% down.
00:57:03 Jay, any views at this point, how to trade this one? Because this one has been particularly volatile.
00:57:09 Yeah, one of the weakest sector and thankfully, it's a lightweight, it doesn't contribute too much for the nifty.
00:57:17 But, you know, it's from you look at it from a medium term perspective, the 2500 level for the nifty media index is looking like a double top.
00:57:25 You know, but, you know, double top is confirmed only the previous support break.
00:57:30 But that's obvious. I know support is about 1640, but the short term is looking quite, quite negative.
00:57:37 And I think the pullbacks here will get sold and probably, you know, whatever the Z story or whatever is contributing to the negatives.
00:57:45 I don't know, but I don't think the stock, the sector, bounce back about 2200.
00:57:52 Anything closer to 2200 will get sold. And I think it's looking like it's one of the weakest sector and it's starting to look, you know, medium term perish.
00:58:03 So, you know, I will be very cautious here. No investments to be taken unless the sector reverses.
00:58:09 The 2200, 2150, 2200, so very significant resistance for the sector.
00:58:15 Okay, Jay, we leave it at that. Thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us today and giving us thoughts.
00:58:20 We really appreciate your time. About a minute left for the markets to shut and bring up how the markets are faring at close.
00:58:25 Actually, much better, really. Half a percent up. You would see the screen and you wouldn't think that the broader markets are in such turmoil.
00:58:32 But that's what's happened. The banks, by the way, have done very well. So there are no problems on the bank side.
00:58:37 But small caps and the market breadth will come up on your screen next.
00:58:41 The advanced decline ratio and that will give you a picture of what's happened in the mid cap and the small cap and a lot of pain.
00:58:47 A lot of individual stocks have corrected quite viciously. And look at that advanced decline ratio.
00:58:51 Well, it's come close by. It's not as bad as it was at a point of time. It was really terrible.
00:58:56 But 6 390 to 1606 is not a great ratio. Now, very quickly, the nifty heat map.
00:59:02 And then Herschel, of course, round up in the mid caps and the small caps as well.
00:59:08 But there is, like we said today, more green and red, but pressure on the economy facing stocks.
00:59:14 Adani, Ultratech, BPCL, ONGC, Adani Ports, JSW Steel, Power Grid, for example, all of these have come under pressure.
00:59:23 Tata Motors, a clutch of brokerages have downgraded and that stock too is in the red.
00:59:27 What's done well, Bajaj Auto, in fact, has perked up in the last few minutes of trade.
00:59:31 There is Kotak Bank, Bharti, SBI Life and Axis amongst others.
00:59:36 And at close, you have to argue that it's IT and to an extent banking, which have done well,
00:59:42 which have led the markets to end up about half a percent or 126 points in the green, the mid caps.
00:59:50 Herschel. Well, yes, absolutely. In fact, not as bad a day as we had earlier.
00:59:56 And besides, half a percent cut on the nifty mid cap.
01:00:00 You know, some names which are or continue to languish in the red.
01:00:04 I'll come to. But the small cap to now just below that two percent cut kind of mark.
01:00:10 So it's it's not as bad as as we were seeing somewhere midday.
01:00:15 So that's the positive I would take from this one. But let's pull up some specific names.
01:00:20 Let's first pull up a GM Financial. It has been the stock of the day.
01:00:24 Let's see where that one settling at. Ten and a half percent clarification coming through as well.
01:00:28 That not as material, just about one point five percent of net income may get impacted,
01:00:34 which is relatively small in comparison to IIFL.
01:00:39 And let's pull that one up as well to see where. Well, that's a flat 20 percent down.
01:00:44 Not much of a surprise either, but 20 percent straight up.
01:00:48 Let's pull up some of the subsidiary, some of the other IFL group companies, securities, 361.
01:00:53 Those ones are seeing cuts as well, but not as bad.
01:00:56 Five percent lower on securities, two and a half percent on 361.
01:01:00 Not as impacted as yesterday. 361 was largely down two percent, less than two percent yesterday.
01:01:06 Let's pull up a Manapuram as a consequence of some of these.
01:01:10 Manapuram, L&T Finance, Sriram Finance. There you go.
01:01:14 You're seeing sharp cuts on some of these. Seven and a half percent on L&T Finance.
01:01:19 Sriram Finance is well down two and a quarter percent.
01:01:22 Let's pull up an AB Capital. That's the other NBFC, which is seeing cuts.
01:01:27 And on the positive side of things, let's try and pull up something like an REC.
01:01:33 Positive announcement, closing also 1.1 percent in the green on a day like this.
01:01:38 Not bad at all. Muthoot and Updata Services on the back of some notes which have come.
01:01:45 And you had Avast also doing quite well.
01:01:48 Let's see where MGL has settled in and let's see where Tata Chemicals has really settled.
01:01:53 Fifteen and a half percent on MGL and Tata Chemicals closing around 11.4 percent higher.
01:01:59 All right. With that, it's a wrap on this leg of India Market Close. Thanks so much for watching.
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