Sensex adds over 1,000 points; #Nifty around 80 points away from record. #NDTVProfitMarkets
Tamanna Inamdar and Niraj Shah dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Tamanna Inamdar and Niraj Shah dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00:31Strong afternoon, isn't it?
00:00:33I mean, you look at the Nifty, you look at the Nifty Bank
00:00:35and you feel this is special.
00:00:37About a sharp surge that has come into the markets
00:00:40in the last 30 odd minutes of trade.
00:00:43And I'll tell you what, we'll get our charters very quickly on the show today
00:00:46to try and understand if this can be bought into.
00:00:48So we'll make the market check quick.
00:00:50But the point is, almost everything is participating.
00:00:53Banks are in the green, moving almost in the same way.
00:00:56Reliance Industries, the heavyweight has participated.
00:00:58Metals are doing really well for themselves as well.
00:01:01And get the heat map up on the screen
00:01:03and you will see that there is participation across the board.
00:01:06I stand corrected in the morning we were saying
00:01:09that this market breadth which was 5 in the red and maximum in the green
00:01:12will change by the afternoon, has changed, but in the other way
00:01:15because there is only one Nifty stock in the red.
00:01:18The market breadth is positive, no, but Tamana will highlight this.
00:01:21Just get the heat map up on the screen because on the large cap end
00:01:24look at the gains that have come in to autos, to oil and gas as well
00:01:29with ONGC and Reliance participating, to metals.
00:01:32So commodities and autos are participating.
00:01:35But the largest point contribution viewers I'm sure
00:01:38is coming in from the banking space
00:01:40because that space is a heavyweight and that is moving.
00:01:43Tamana, mid caps probably not.
00:01:46I mean the last, the gusto is in the large caps.
00:01:49But you don't have a reason to complain.
00:01:52There is a party going on.
00:01:53Question is whether you have been invited or not.
00:01:55Exactly.
00:01:56And most of the market is.
00:01:58So this is one of those days of truth Neeraj.
00:02:00If your portfolio is not looking good this afternoon,
00:02:02you need a serious rethink.
00:02:06Just look at this screen
00:02:08and look at the kind of strength that you have seen.
00:02:10Let's pull up the broader indices
00:02:12before we go to the advance decline ratio as well.
00:02:14The mid cap 150 not showing as much of a spike as the Nifty.
00:02:18So remember this is a bit of a Nifty story in that sense.
00:02:21But let's pull up the small cap index as well.
00:02:23The intraday chart and see what's happening there.
00:02:25Steady as she goes.
00:02:26It's been a good day.
00:02:28But again that sharp upswing is coming in the heavyweights undoubtedly.
00:02:33Advance decline ratio just once more just to see
00:02:35how evenly that gap has broadened.
00:02:38And you know on the broader end of the spectrum
00:02:41some would argue that a little after markets open
00:02:43it was actually looking better.
00:02:44So it's positive largely Nifty story.
00:02:47Let's look at some of the key movers.
00:02:49I mean a Keynes Tech today.
00:02:51Keynes Tech and if I may add a Dixon.
00:02:53There's a Nomura note out
00:02:55and of course they've initiated coverage by target.
00:02:5830% upside on Keynes.
00:03:00They had an upside on Dixon as well.
00:03:02Nothing much happened with Dixon to that extent.
00:03:04But Keynes is nearly 12% up.
00:03:06That stock absolutely buzzing.
00:03:08A lot of brokerage calls are the trigger
00:03:10for stocks that are moving this afternoon.
00:03:12So look at Zomato for example.
00:03:14Positive brokerage call there.
00:03:16Kalyan Jewellers is another one
00:03:18which has had a positive HSBC call on it.
00:03:21So Kalyan Jewellers also about 5% up.
00:03:24But on the other hand Adani Power
00:03:27as I had a disclosures there.
00:03:28But Adani Power doing well in afternoon trade
00:03:31because the coastal energy acquisition
00:03:33which was stuck in Enclad
00:03:35has been cleared by the Supreme Court.
00:03:37So that stock in focus this afternoon about 4% up.
00:03:40On the downside you have a Honasa
00:03:43expected with a block deal impact.
00:03:45And you know so Honasa of course looking a bit soft.
00:03:50But let's also 6% down there.
00:03:53But let's also look at Granules.
00:03:54And that's also a stock of the day.
00:03:56So we'll come to it in a little more detail.
00:03:58But Granules getting pummeled 16% down.
00:04:03Now this is an interesting sequence of events
00:04:06in the sense that there's a US FDA set of observations.
00:04:09Six in fact.
00:04:11This came out yesterday.
00:04:12The stock didn't react that badly.
00:04:14And then this afternoon the company comes and clarifies
00:04:16saying that we are cooperating etc.
00:04:18Standard boilerplate.
00:04:19But that's when you see the massive dive continuing.
00:04:22So 16% down on that.
00:04:23But those are more exceptions in the market today Neeraj.
00:04:26Because the heavyweights are all ready
00:04:28to break out the party hats.
00:04:30Now you can attribute various reasons to this.
00:04:33Tamanna, China to cut rates.
00:04:35Therefore that gets the commodity space active.
00:04:37And therefore if indeed the growth numbers
00:04:39don't look all that bad there.
00:04:40Is it good for world markets at large?
00:04:42Who knows.
00:04:43Just before we get to our experts.
00:04:44European markets should come up on your screen.
00:04:46Just to mark.
00:04:47You know the European markets also have rallied.
00:04:49I mean look at those markets.
00:04:50DAX is up 1.16%.
00:04:52FTSE about 0.72%.
00:04:54So there is a bit of a move out there too.
00:04:56Kush Poda, Rajesh Pal, we are to talk about
00:04:58the technicals and the derivative side of the market.
00:05:00Jamin, both of you, thanks so much for joining in.
00:05:02Kush, good afternoon.
00:05:04Simple pointed question.
00:05:06If you were not long until now,
00:05:08would you initiate a fresh long?
00:05:10And if you were long,
00:05:12would you take money off the table or stay long?
00:05:16This is on the Nifty by the way.
00:05:18Very good afternoon.
00:05:20I think this afternoon has turned good
00:05:22right at the stroke of 2pm.
00:05:24Up until then it was just another day.
00:05:26Caught everyone by surprise much like Friday.
00:05:29Now to answer your question very pointedly,
00:05:31if I had long positions,
00:05:33I would take money off the table.
00:05:35I would book profit and wait for
00:05:37a day just to see whether
00:05:39the 25-300 new highs are taken out
00:05:41on the Nifty.
00:05:43Just to conclude a point,
00:05:45we have been seeing negative divergences
00:05:47on the daily and the weekly setup.
00:05:49Even this move isn't really clearing
00:05:51any doubts on that front
00:05:53as the negative divergences still remain intact.
00:05:55So I would take these bouts
00:05:57as a profit booking opportunity.
00:05:59But this kind of a move,
00:06:0125-300-350 isn't really that far.
00:06:03But if that is taken out,
00:06:05that's when you see fresh momentum
00:06:07and that's when you perhaps add new long positions.
00:06:09At the moment, you take the money off the table.
00:06:13You take some money off the table
00:06:15at these positions is what Kush is saying
00:06:17just on the Bank Nifty as well.
00:06:19Kush, very good afternoon to you.
00:06:21And let's get your top picks this afternoon.
00:06:25Hi Tamna, very good afternoon to you too.
00:06:27A couple of stocks both on the long side.
00:06:30The first one is
00:06:32IPCA Labs.
00:06:34We have just been seeing
00:06:36a rather decent momentum on the upside.
00:06:38A couple of days of consolidation
00:06:40and retesting the previous highs again.
00:06:42I think on the upside,
00:06:4415-25-16-100 are the targets to look at.
00:06:4613-75 is where you place your stop-loss.
00:06:48Science.
00:06:50Here too, we've seen a breakout
00:06:52after a good 15-20 sessions
00:06:54of consolidation yesterday.
00:06:56The move continues today as well.
00:06:58From a positional standpoint,
00:07:0020-200-20-60 are the targets to look at.
00:07:02I've got a couple of updates as well.
00:07:04And when you cue me in,
00:07:06I'll be happy to share those as well.
00:07:08Updates for sure.
00:07:10But let me get Rajesh's view on the indices.
00:07:12And Rajesh, why don't you start
00:07:14with the Bank Nifty as well?
00:07:16Bank Nifty, Nifty, and of course, picks.
00:07:18Good afternoon, Tamna.
00:07:20My view is a little different.
00:07:22I'll carry my long position
00:07:24as Nifty has been a very strong
00:07:26short-covering action.
00:07:28And the way Nifty has moved up
00:07:30beyond 52,200,
00:07:3225,200,
00:07:34I think this really has
00:07:36now potential to cross
00:07:38all-time high trajectory also.
00:07:40So I think
00:07:42till Nifty is holding about 25,150,
00:07:44I'll carry my long position.
00:07:46And possibly we are aiming
00:07:48target of 25,450 to 500
00:07:50in the continuation of this up move.
00:07:52And for Bank Nifty also,
00:07:54very strong buying action.
00:07:56Bank Nifty constituents also
00:07:58started participating.
00:08:00All private as well as PSU banks also
00:08:02participating in this.
00:08:04So we believe that the way Bank Nifty is holding
00:08:06above 51,400,
00:08:08I think if it stays above those levels,
00:08:10possible target for Bank Nifty
00:08:12we could see towards 51,800 to
00:08:1452,000 also.
00:08:16So here also we are carrying our long position.
00:08:18At this juncture, our
00:08:20stop losses are placed at around 51,300
00:08:22to hold long position in
00:08:24Bank Nifty also.
00:08:26All three heavyweight stocks,
00:08:28first one is from
00:08:30telecom sector, that is Bharti Etel.
00:08:32Sustained buying action is
00:08:34taking place in this stock. The way stock has
00:08:36moved up in today's session,
00:08:38there is a high possibility that
00:08:40stock may cross
00:08:42level of 1,700 also in this
00:08:44rally. So we are projecting
00:08:46target towards 1,690 to 1,710
00:08:48for Bharti Etel.
00:08:50Your stop loss should be placed at around 1,608.
00:08:52Second stock is from
00:08:54the private bank,
00:08:56that is ICICI Bank.
00:08:58Here, the way stock
00:09:00is outperforming
00:09:02compared to all other private
00:09:04banks, there is a possibility
00:09:06that ICICI may regain to
00:09:08all-time high trajectory very soon.
00:09:10We are projecting target towards
00:09:121,285 for ICICI Bank.
00:09:14Since last
00:09:16couple of days, we are seeing that
00:09:18positions are intact, long build-up is there
00:09:20in the data. So one can buy with
00:09:22stop loss of 1,218.
00:09:24And the third stock is from FMCG Basket,
00:09:26that is Britannia.
00:09:28A very strong breakout on a daily-weekly
00:09:30timeframe and the way stock has shown long
00:09:32build-up in last couple of
00:09:34days, we believe that Britannia
00:09:36may extend its gain and
00:09:38possible target towards 60-50 we can
00:09:40see in short period of time. So Britannia
00:09:42is buying with stop loss of 6,060.
00:09:44Just
00:09:46another stock that we should focus
00:09:48on is Bharti Etel.
00:09:50Bharti Etel in that day.
00:09:52Granules is the stock of the day on the negative side.
00:09:54Bharti Etel is the stock of the day on the positive
00:09:56side. Look at the sharp upswing there.
00:09:58So what's happened there is that they have signed a
00:10:00pact with Sparkle for
00:10:02blue Raman capacity between
00:10:04India and Italy. If you didn't understand any
00:10:06of that, it's essentially a
00:10:08submarine cable system
00:10:10that they have signed a pact from.
00:10:12We'll try and get you more details on why
00:10:14this is such a big deal and we'll ask our fundamental
00:10:16guest as well. But meanwhile, Rajesh, just
00:10:18your take on the charts on Bharti Etel.
00:10:20So definitely, Tamanna,
00:10:22we are holding bullish when the continuation of
00:10:24uptrend is going on. Stock is moving
00:10:26in upsloping channel on weekly chart.
00:10:28There is a long buildup on the derivative
00:10:30data. The way stock has shown
00:10:32strength in today's session
00:10:34especially, we expect that
00:10:36this really may extend to 1690 to
00:10:381710. So I think
00:10:40Bharti is a buy at current level
00:10:42also. Even in minor decline also you can add
00:10:44the position. 1610,
00:10:461605 should be your stop loss.
00:10:48Okay.
00:10:50Well, Etel is zooming
00:10:52in trade. What is not zooming and
00:10:54hitting quite the reverse gear
00:10:56is Granules India.
00:10:58The stock has been
00:11:00battered in trade on the back
00:11:02of the USFDA's six observations at
00:11:04the Hyderabad plant which includes and I
00:11:06quote, destroying
00:11:08quality control data.
00:11:10Varsha Johnson to tell us more.
00:11:12Varsha.
00:11:14Yes, Granules stock is under pressure.
00:11:16Now this is on the back of company receiving
00:11:18six observations from USFDA
00:11:20at its Hyderabad plant. Now this was
00:11:22two, three days ago
00:11:24news but let's see what the observations
00:11:26were. First, the inspection was conducted
00:11:28from August 26 to September 6,
00:11:302024 at their Hyderabad
00:11:32facility which is crucial for manufacturing
00:11:34finished doses. Now they also
00:11:36produce, the facility also makes
00:11:38pharmaceutical formulation
00:11:40intermediates. This facility
00:11:42supports global operation and it
00:11:44has a capacity of 23,200
00:11:46tons per annum for pharmaceutical
00:11:48intermediates and 26.8
00:11:50billion units for their
00:11:52finished doses. Now,
00:11:54the point is, the observation is,
00:11:56so the big investors like
00:11:58Aditya Khemka in their tweet
00:12:00says that the Granules stole and
00:12:02destroyed quality control data,
00:12:04GNP documents and papers
00:12:06leading to data integrity issues.
00:12:08Now the data integrity is nothing
00:12:10but the maintenance of the accuracy and
00:12:12consistency of data and it is
00:12:14critical aspects when it comes to pharmaceutical
00:12:16industry because it ensures that
00:12:18the drugs are safe and effective and meet quality
00:12:20standards. Now the data integrity
00:12:22issue can occur when data is corrupted
00:12:24which is when unwanted or
00:12:26unexpected changes take place which
00:12:28leads to storage
00:12:30or processing.
00:12:32Now this can be caused by hardware failures,
00:12:34human error or malicious
00:12:36actions or data security
00:12:38failures. So the fact that
00:12:40the observation finds the data integrity
00:12:42issues is the reason that we are seeing the
00:12:44pressure on this stock.
00:12:46Thanks Varsha for that. That Aditya Khemka tweet
00:12:48should come up because, I mean, this is of course
00:12:50him also putting it out. He is a noted fund manager
00:12:52but putting it out, this is what he has heard that if
00:12:54this has happened, then why is it that the
00:12:56company would do something like this in this day
00:12:58and age? I think that is what he was trying to say.
00:13:00But if that is what has happened because
00:13:02Granules statement, me and Tamanna were just talking
00:13:04about it, the Granules statement
00:13:06is effectively saying only one thing, that
00:13:08we are addressing the US FDA concerns
00:13:10and we will work with the US FDA
00:13:12to try and come at
00:13:14suitable solutions. But until then,
00:13:16how long does this take? This is the biggest
00:13:18plant of Granules
00:13:20which is now under the
00:13:22US FDA
00:13:24scanner and therefore
00:13:26it is not good news.
00:13:28And I think to the point that you were making
00:13:30as well Neeraj, that while the response
00:13:32from Granules is pretty standard
00:13:34as it usually is in these cases
00:13:36where you come and say that we are doing
00:13:38everything that we are supposed to, there is no clear
00:13:40sharp denial of some
00:13:42of the allegations that have come in
00:13:44in terms of was
00:13:46any evidence destroyed or
00:13:48they are pretty harsh
00:13:50observations. Maybe they could
00:13:52not have come in and said anything there
00:13:54but a more
00:13:56constructive tone may
00:13:58have helped or maybe it is
00:14:00harsh enough that nothing would have helped
00:14:02one way or the other. Granules is the outlier
00:14:04on this day.
00:14:06Rajesh, do you look at this
00:14:08stock at all on the charts?
00:14:10So a very
00:14:12significant fall in the stock
00:14:14in today's session and the way short
00:14:16build-up is there and the stock now slid below
00:14:18to 50-day moving average also.
00:14:20So maybe if it is
00:14:22sustained below to
00:14:24580, 590 soon, I think
00:14:26furthermore supply pressure we could see in the
00:14:28near-term basis and possibly
00:14:30the stock may go further down
00:14:32towards 540,
00:14:34530 kind of level also.
00:14:36So I think stay away at this moment
00:14:38not to buy this
00:14:40falling knife at this junction till the
00:14:42clarity not comes. I think the way
00:14:44stock has broken all its important
00:14:46support area on daily as well as on
00:14:48the weekly chart, I think furthermore follow
00:14:50up selling we could see in the
00:14:52coming trading session also.
00:14:54In fact, that is the question, Kushbora.
00:14:56The stock rallied from
00:14:58500 to 700 very, very swiftly.
00:15:00Now fundamentally the largest
00:15:02plant is under the scanner. My question is
00:15:04actually can it
00:15:06do more? You may not want to sell it
00:15:08after 16% lower. Agreed. Because
00:15:10a lot of the easy money
00:15:12is out of the bag. But do the charts indicate
00:15:14more downsides here?
00:15:16Is it possible to predict that?
00:15:18They do, Neeraj.
00:15:20And this was one of the
00:15:22favorites for a
00:15:24lot of experts, a lot of funds also
00:15:26when it was going up, the kind of moves that it used
00:15:28to see. There was a time when it had
00:15:305, I think about
00:15:325 to 7, 8, maybe more
00:15:34closings on the
00:15:36higher side. I just think that there was a lot
00:15:38of interest. Now all of that is going to come into question.
00:15:40Now as Rajesh said, the
00:15:42first level of support that I'm looking at
00:15:44after this kind of a fall is actually around
00:15:46525 if that is broken
00:15:48then 490. Now
00:15:50if you're a braveheart, you might still want to consider
00:15:52a short on this one. But at the
00:15:54very least, if you have a position, then it's not
00:15:56a bad idea to exit
00:15:58right now because as we speak, the stock
00:16:00on the back of very strong volumes continues
00:16:02to hit fresh lows. So
00:16:04there is a possibility that it might tend towards
00:16:06525, 490 zones as well.
00:16:08How low
00:16:10granules can go?
00:16:12Aditya Shah joining us from Hercules Securities.
00:16:14Aditya, very good afternoon to you and so much
00:16:16to unpack today on what's happening with the markets,
00:16:18Bharti Airtel, etc. But
00:16:20since you've joined the conversation at a point when we're
00:16:22talking about granules, let's get your view on that.
00:16:24Any silver lining
00:16:26anywhere for the stock, for the company
00:16:28right now?
00:16:30See, Tamanna, we've seen
00:16:32a lot of generic companies with very
00:16:34poor compliance, stock prices
00:16:36moving up. And now we've seen
00:16:38the USMDA coming in and
00:16:40giving all of these
00:16:42red letter warnings
00:16:44to companies.
00:16:46So my advice to
00:16:48investors would be, be very
00:16:50careful on the generic side of it.
00:16:52Only try to invest where there's a
00:16:54strong track record of compliances.
00:16:56Rather than going into all of these
00:16:58companies, try to invest in
00:17:00cramped CDMO businesses or
00:17:02try to invest in the diagnostic
00:17:04sector or in the API sector
00:17:06where compliance is really very strong.
00:17:08Compliance is one of
00:17:10the strongest points that
00:17:12you need to decipher while investing
00:17:14in the pharma companies. And I
00:17:16would advise investors to stay away
00:17:18from companies, from granules
00:17:20as well as companies where compliance
00:17:22track record is absolutely very weak.
00:17:26Okay, so from the big
00:17:28loser of the day to the big
00:17:30winner of the day, especially as per
00:17:32weightage, Aditya, what about
00:17:34Bharti Airtel? I think
00:17:36the news trigger is this
00:17:38undersea
00:17:40cable deal that they
00:17:42have signed. But
00:17:44what are you finding exciting about Bharti Airtel
00:17:46and why do you reckon we've seen such a sharp
00:17:48upswing?
00:17:50So, we are positive both
00:17:52on Bharti Airtel and Reliance
00:17:54Jio or the Reliance stock per se.
00:17:56Both these companies will continue
00:17:58to do exceptionally well. We are
00:18:00on a path to a tariff hike
00:18:02and we will see continuous tariff
00:18:04hikes in the next 6, 12,
00:18:0624 months. So,
00:18:08today's trigger is, as you
00:18:10said, the news that
00:18:12has come up. However, longer term,
00:18:14I am positive both on Bharti Airtel as
00:18:16well as Reliance.
00:18:18Yeah, you know, 4% higher. In a bit,
00:18:20Rucha will of course join in to talk about this
00:18:22as well. But, you know, just
00:18:24the kind of moves that
00:18:26are happening in commodities warrant
00:18:28a quick check on that before we get to
00:18:30the cabinet decision on
00:18:32autos as well.
00:18:34Rajesh, the moves
00:18:36that we're seeing, Vedanta, Hindalco,
00:18:38all steel companies as well,
00:18:40everything metal has done well. Now, whether it's
00:18:42due to this whole talk of
00:18:44China cutting rates or the ECB cutting rates
00:18:46very, very shortly, what have you,
00:18:48but the move is
00:18:50happening as a pack.
00:18:52Would you trade any of the metal names?
00:18:56So, definitely, Neeraj,
00:18:58GSW still is looking promising.
00:19:00The stock has comfortably managed
00:19:02to cross its last 6 days consolidation
00:19:04range. We believe that
00:19:06if the stock continues to hold above 940,
00:19:08I think there is a possibility
00:19:10stock can move further higher to 990,
00:19:12even 1000 kind of level.
00:19:14Even Vedanta is also looking promising.
00:19:16Long-term structure is bullish and
00:19:18the way stock has recovered from
00:19:20today's low, I think
00:19:22it's a very strong recovery
00:19:24is taking place in this stock.
00:19:26I think Vedanta can also extend
00:19:28its gain. 455
00:19:30is the next target for the stock.
00:19:32At this juncture, one can buy with
00:19:34stop-loss of 434.
00:19:37Okay. Vedanta
00:19:39in focus in terms of metals.
00:19:41Aditya, let me come to you
00:19:43quickly on the metal story. So,
00:19:45whole host of things. Steel companies, of course,
00:19:47buzzing since morning. The story has gone beyond
00:19:49steel. Look at the metals index and their
00:19:51components. That's where the shine completely
00:19:53is. What are you betting
00:19:55on right now, Aditya, in the metals pack?
00:19:57Within the metals
00:19:59pack, we like the ferrous side
00:20:01of it or the ferrous metals
00:20:03and companies like Tata
00:20:05and Tata Steel. Those look really very
00:20:07interesting to us. However, you need to be
00:20:09really very careful. This is a short-term
00:20:11blip. Given that the world is
00:20:13undergoing a slowdown,
00:20:15there is a quintessential
00:20:17requirement for interest rate
00:20:19cuts and as the interest rate
00:20:21cuts come along, then these commodity
00:20:23prices will start to do exceptionally well.
00:20:25So, not so bullish
00:20:27in the near term. However, on
00:20:29a longer-term perspective, I'm bullish
00:20:31on the ferrous side of metals.
00:20:34You're bullish on the ferrous
00:20:36side of metals. Now, a lot of things
00:20:38combining to the
00:20:40kind of move we've seen in the markets
00:20:42today. Perfect storm, but in a
00:20:44positive sense. And one of
00:20:46the major stories having an impact is also
00:20:48the cabinet approving the PME drive
00:20:50scheme with a 10,900
00:20:52crore rupee outlay. This move
00:20:54has seen several EV stocks move
00:20:56higher in trade. Puneet brings
00:20:58us more details on the stock impact
00:21:00on major auto players.
00:21:03This is a major impact and I also
00:21:05want to just take a couple of moments to highlight
00:21:07the comments that Mr. Kumaraswamy,
00:21:09the Minister of Heavy Industries
00:21:11has said. His press conference is
00:21:13going on right now and our colleague Tushar is giving us
00:21:15some highlights. Now, what is essentially
00:21:17the key concern here is that they've given the
00:21:19outlay of the scheme across categories.
00:21:21So, you know, the breakup is roughly
00:21:23around 1,700 odd crores will be for these
00:21:25electric two-wheelers, roughly 500
00:21:27odd crores for hybrid ambulances,
00:21:29900 odd crores for electric
00:21:31three-wheelers and 4,300 odd
00:21:33crores for electric buses. Now, the reason
00:21:35I want to focus is because electric
00:21:37cars, as my colleague said, is not included
00:21:39in this particular scheme and the rationale behind
00:21:41this is that electric cars attract
00:21:43a lower GST of just 5%
00:21:45versus roughly 28% on normal cars
00:21:47and 43% on, 43
00:21:49to 48% on the bigger and the hybrid
00:21:51cars as well. So, since this is already
00:21:53getting the benefit of lower
00:21:55GST, that's the reason electric
00:21:57cars has not been included. That's what Mr. Kumaraswamy
00:21:59had to say. Apart from that, you know,
00:22:01the subsidy on electric
00:22:03two-wheelers has been reduced from
00:22:0510,000 kilowatt hour previously to
00:22:075,000 now and this is slightly
00:22:09negative because the 10,000 scheme
00:22:11was just, you know, introduced in the month of April
00:22:13on the first in the new EMPS
00:22:15scheme which had, you know, come after the
00:22:17FAME scheme as a temporary halt stop. Now,
00:22:19this is also a key negative for
00:22:21electric two-wheeler players, the likes of
00:22:23Ola Electric, Bajaj Auto as well as TVS
00:22:25because the incentive for purchasing
00:22:27an electric scooter has, you know, dramatically
00:22:29been reduced over the last six months. Now,
00:22:31even though, for the
00:22:33electric, this is in the, if you purchase
00:22:35the scheme in the first year, an electric scooter
00:22:37in the first year is 5,000 kilowatt. If you
00:22:39do that the next year, which is roughly FI
00:22:4126, it goes down further to
00:22:43roughly 2,500 rupees a kilowatt hour.
00:22:45Generally, an electric scooter is about
00:22:473 kilowatts. So, your maximum discount
00:22:49is up to 7,500
00:22:51to 10,000 rupees. Finally,
00:22:53the subsidy on electric three-wheelers, it's
00:22:55coming at roughly 50,000 rupees per kilowatt
00:22:57hour in the first year and that halves
00:22:59in the second year. So, in the morning, we
00:23:01had highlighted the electric four-wheeler makers
00:23:03will be impacted by this since they're not included.
00:23:05I think, based on this particular
00:23:07new development, electric two-wheeler
00:23:09makers also won't be very happy with the
00:23:1150% reduction in subsidies
00:23:13going forward compared to the
00:23:15same time, you know, in the last six months.
00:23:17E-buses, we are still awaiting some
00:23:19more details on how it is, but E-buses
00:23:21seem to be the most favorable here. Yeah,
00:23:23but everyone is happy right now
00:23:25because look at what's happening in the markets.
00:23:27You are just inches
00:23:29away from an all-time high
00:23:31on the Nifty.
00:23:33There is not a single
00:23:35stock in the red on the Nifty
00:23:3750. It's green
00:23:39every which way you
00:23:41look. Like, the biggest lose on the Nifty
00:23:43right now is SBI Life, which is also
00:23:450.26% up. Hindalco,
00:23:47NTPC, all of them up there
00:23:49celebrating. But look at the auto
00:23:51pack as well. M&M, Hero,
00:23:53Bajaj Auto, all of them
00:23:55are making it to the top of the list. So,
00:23:57it's metals. It's all over really,
00:23:59but it's metals. A lot of heavyweights coming in.
00:24:01Look at the upswing in a Wipro
00:24:03since this morning actually,
00:24:05but benefiting there
00:24:07as well. Let's pull up the Nifty and
00:24:09like we said, you are just a few points
00:24:11away from an all-time
00:24:13high right now. Over
00:24:15400 points up on
00:24:17the Nifty at this point.
00:24:19So, it's looking like a very,
00:24:21very exciting
00:24:23afternoon. Yeah, we have touched the all-time high.
00:24:25We have touched the all-time
00:24:27high 25331
00:24:29on the Nifty. 25338
00:24:31is the all-time high that we have touched.
00:24:33So, an exciting day.
00:24:35An exciting day to
00:24:37wrap up what has been an interesting week
00:24:39and you know, this is a completely different
00:24:41situation because all your intraday charts is talking
00:24:43about this 2 o'clock zoom.
00:24:45Now, I don't know if this is going to be
00:24:47FII inflows which have pushed
00:24:49this up. We will wait till this evening to see
00:24:51that detail, but definitely
00:24:53this is a different
00:24:55trajectory that we are going into.
00:24:57Kush, you started the show saying that if you were
00:24:59long on the Nifty, you would
00:25:01cut off your, you know, you sell your
00:25:03positions or you close your positions.
00:25:05Do you want to
00:25:07review that? What would you do with a
00:25:09Bank Nifty? Bank Nifty also 600 points up.
00:25:13Who would have woken up this
00:25:15morning thinking, oh come on, we'll hit a new
00:25:17high on the Nifty and you know, Bank Nifty
00:25:19will be breaking out of all the resistances.
00:25:21Boring would life be if he knew
00:25:23in the morning what's going to happen by the
00:25:25afternoon. Trust me, I don't mind that.
00:25:27If I know that, if I can lick my positions
00:25:29I'm completely happy.
00:25:31Anyway, boring that is to make money.
00:25:33Yeah, but then it would be you
00:25:35and everyone else, so then the
00:25:37after could have happened. Just kidding.
00:25:39Anyways, yeah. Kush, sorry, please finish your answer.
00:25:41No, so I still
00:25:43maintain that view. I mean, we did speak that, you know, with the kind of
00:25:45momentum, 100 points error, therefore the
00:25:47Nifty will, you know, will not really be a big deal
00:25:49in the, what, last 20-25
00:25:51minutes of our discussion, the Nifty
00:25:53touched that. My view still remains, I
00:25:55will for the day at least take some money home
00:25:57you know, see, assess what the data
00:25:59sets up like for tomorrow
00:26:01and then perhaps decide, you know, if we
00:26:03do maintain this kind of a
00:26:05closing at least, then perhaps, you know, there is
00:26:07another, perhaps, you know,
00:26:09150-200 points of up move left,
00:26:11500 sort of comes into play, but
00:26:13for the day, I mean, you know, if I had long position
00:26:15and if I was looking at
00:26:17the last couple of sessions under a lot of pressure
00:26:19I would still be tempted to take some
00:26:21money home. Bank Nifty, on the other hand,
00:26:23slightly different creature, where the 50-day
00:26:25moving average was acting as a bit of a resistance
00:26:27for, you know, 8-10 odd sessions
00:26:29broken past that
00:26:31so from here on, 50-200
00:26:33you know, is the target that comes into play
00:26:35that's the one index that you perhaps
00:26:37want to consider going long on rather than
00:26:39Nifty at the moment. Aditya, what
00:26:41is your reading of what's happening in the markets
00:26:43right now and, you know,
00:26:45is this the time when people look at
00:26:47possibility of booking
00:26:49profits or
00:26:51waiting for this upswing to sort of continue?
00:26:53So,
00:26:55what I am seeing is that
00:26:57the part of Nifty that was not performing
00:26:59the private sector banks, that has
00:27:01now come up, we've seen HDFC Bank
00:27:03that is going up, we've seen
00:27:05Kotak Bank that is going up
00:27:07the whole host of banks that were
00:27:09not leading the market up, they are now leading
00:27:11the market up and this
00:27:13move is a lot to do with what Bank Nifty
00:27:15is really doing. So, in my opinion
00:27:17it was warranted and it was bound
00:27:19to really happen. If you are holding
00:27:21positions in good companies, I don't think
00:27:23that there is any need
00:27:25to book profits
00:27:27however, your
00:27:29time horizon should be longer term. In the near
00:27:31term, you could see some volatility
00:27:33however, longer term, I am positive on the market
00:27:36Okay, well
00:27:38strong moves there, you know
00:27:40Rajesh, you must be smiling
00:27:42your way to the bank although it is only a
00:27:440.3% up move from the time
00:27:46that we spoke but it is certainly
00:27:48ending well. The question is
00:27:50on private banks Rajesh
00:27:52completely out of favour, not quite
00:27:54there, today participating
00:27:56would you trade an HDFC
00:27:58I know you mentioned ICICI Bank as one of your
00:28:00ideas. The others, HDFC
00:28:02Bank or a Kotak Bank, would you trade
00:28:04them or is there more juice
00:28:06in an ICICI kind of a stock?
00:28:10So, definitely HDFC Bank
00:28:12is on our second stock
00:28:14on a private bank and I think
00:28:16the way after a long
00:28:18consolidation, in today's move
00:28:20stock managed to give breakout
00:28:22I think if any follow up buying
00:28:24action comes above 1670
00:28:26on the HDFC Bank
00:28:28I think here also we could see some short covering
00:28:30and then possibly stock
00:28:32may extend its gain towards 1700-1720
00:28:34that's the major
00:28:36congestion zone for the stock
00:28:38so I think 1720 would be
00:28:40the key resistance area for HDFC Bank
00:28:42if at all this pullback
00:28:44continues further tomorrow
00:28:46I think looking at the
00:28:48structure yes we do believe that there is
00:28:50a possibility that HDFC Bank can
00:28:52extend gain. So I think yes here
00:28:54we can deploy some long trade with stop loss
00:28:56of 1640
00:28:58Okay
00:29:00well we are making a habit of
00:29:02talking on big moments
00:29:04and big days with Pankaj Murarka, CIO
00:29:06of Renaissance Investment Managers, he joins us on the show
00:29:08yet again Pankaj, great having you
00:29:10thanks for agreeing to talk on such a short notice
00:29:12but you know
00:29:14I wonder if it's got
00:29:16to do with this surge
00:29:18that we are seeing in sentiment across the
00:29:20world, is it got to do with B being
00:29:22closer to the rate cards also
00:29:24some news on Bloomberg that China is going to cut
00:29:26rates on $5 trillion worth of
00:29:28mortgages as soon as September
00:29:30is all of this fueling it or is it difficult to say?
00:29:34Good afternoon Neeraj, first of all
00:29:36congratulations to you and all your viewers
00:29:38for making a new
00:29:40high. I think fundamentally
00:29:42the fact remains that
00:29:44we've been into last
00:29:4618 months or 20 months
00:29:48of very steep rate hike by Fed
00:29:50and now that cycle is reversing
00:29:52we are on course for
00:29:54probably at least 200 basis points
00:29:56rate cuts in US over the next 12 to 15 months
00:29:58and if that is the case
00:30:00then we are going to see, I firmly
00:30:02believe that we are going to see significant amount
00:30:04of capital flowing back to emerging markets
00:30:06the big difference this time
00:30:08around India is last time when we were
00:30:10in a rate cut cycle or a 9 interest rate cycle
00:30:12during Covid, India's
00:30:14rate in MSCI emerging market was
00:30:168% and China was 40%
00:30:18come 2024
00:30:20as we speak, India's rate is
00:30:2220% and China is 22%
00:30:24the point I'm going to say is, India this time
00:30:26around is going to get far significantly
00:30:28much higher flows coming to emerging
00:30:30markets as percentage share
00:30:32than what we got last time and if that
00:30:34is the case then Indian markets are headed higher
00:30:38Pankaj hi, good afternoon, Tamanna here
00:30:40you know what's amazing
00:30:42is if you see which are the
00:30:44biggest movers today and
00:30:46it's not necessarily the
00:30:48usual suspects, your private banks
00:30:50they are doing well no doubt
00:30:52but you are seeing action in a Bharti
00:30:54Airtel, Wipro, some of these
00:30:56kind of counters, do you think that's
00:30:58also indicative that in this
00:31:00next leg up of
00:31:02funds flowing in
00:31:04the choices might be different or
00:31:06do you think you would watch out for
00:31:08the usual suspects
00:31:10no, I agree with you
00:31:12Tamanna, I think market is already witnessing
00:31:14a sectoral rotation
00:31:16probably last 18 months or 2 years
00:31:18right from March 23 until few months
00:31:20back was about defense
00:31:22railways and capital goods or industrial
00:31:24while the underlying story
00:31:26earnings momentum in that
00:31:28sector or segment remains strong
00:31:30but the fact remains valuations there
00:31:32are rich or extremely rich
00:31:34from a next 1 to 2 year perspective
00:31:36and so I think significantly
00:31:38higher amount of capital
00:31:40flow into some of these lagard sectors
00:31:42which is already showing signs in the last
00:31:446 or 8 weeks, you have seen IT has done
00:31:46extremely well in the last 8 weeks
00:31:48we have seen some revival, I think
00:31:50from here on private sector banks will participate in the rally
00:31:52so I think we are going to see sectoral
00:31:54rotation in the market because there is a segment
00:31:56of the market which includes IT, consumer
00:31:58consumer discretionary and banks
00:32:00financials including private sector banks
00:32:02which has underperformed and where probably
00:32:04the earnings outlook today is much better
00:32:06than or the earnings headwinds are behind
00:32:08and probably we are looking forward to strong earnings growth
00:32:10so I think much higher capital
00:32:12will flow into it and we will see
00:32:14sectoral rotation, this is just the beginning of
00:32:16pick up from some of these lagard
00:32:18sectors and stocks within those sectors
00:32:20Alright
00:32:22so sectoral rotation is something which we
00:32:24will see, will we see
00:32:26you know, sort of a
00:32:28policy push kind of a surge as
00:32:30well Pankaj, I mean is this a story
00:32:32that repeats itself, so your
00:32:34defence, renewables, you are already
00:32:36seeing some buzz coming in from
00:32:38decisions that the government
00:32:40is making and
00:32:42do you see that upside returning to the market
00:32:44well
00:32:46on the defence and industrial side of the story
00:32:48long term story remains intact and I think
00:32:50we will keep seeing positive news flow
00:32:52or news flows in terms of orders
00:32:54and all of that but the only point I am going to
00:32:56say is from a near term perspective all of that
00:32:58is into the price and the
00:33:00stocks within sectors are extremely
00:33:02rich, I haven't seen for a very long time
00:33:04a PSU company trading at
00:33:0640-50 multiple
00:33:08on 2 year forward earnings which HAL
00:33:10is trading at, so these kind of valuations
00:33:12I haven't seen for a very long time for a
00:33:14PSU company but the fact remains
00:33:16that the underlying story remains compelling
00:33:18there is strong earnings growth but I think probably
00:33:20all of that is in the price and the risk reward is much better
00:33:22in some of the other sectors or other
00:33:24segments of the market, so I think probably
00:33:26we find much better risk reward in
00:33:28those segments or those sectors in that sense
00:33:30Last question, sorry, are you
00:33:32moving to some bit of cash as a
00:33:34reason, if you can
00:33:36or are you swapping for sectors
00:33:38wherein the valuations are a lot more
00:33:40easier?
00:33:42Neeraj, I firmly believe we are in a
00:33:44bull market, we are in a very strong bull market
00:33:46it is foolish or naive to sit on cash
00:33:48in a bull market, don't waste
00:33:50don't waste, there is
00:33:52significant opportunity cost to cash in a bull market
00:33:54the simple thing to do in a bull market is
00:33:56just stay invested fully and let markets
00:33:58do their job
00:34:00Pankaj, appreciate you
00:34:02joining us, thanks for taking the time out and
00:34:04being with us, our guests of course stay
00:34:06with us, we take a quick break
00:34:08on the other side, we try
00:34:10and take a look at the EMS stocks which have
00:34:12had a fabulous move today
00:34:14also try and talk about Bharti Airtel which is
00:34:16the top nifty gainer, some
00:34:18BTST ideas and maybe push
00:34:20Aditya to talk about one
00:34:22fundamental idea
00:34:24Stay tuned, we'll be right back
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00:38:00All right, welcome back.
00:38:01Well, no signs of flagging in the markets
00:38:05now above the 25,400 levels on the Nifty.
00:38:09So not only have we crossed new highs,
00:38:12but you are continuing the trajectory.
00:38:15Look at the swing in just a day, over 500 points up just
00:38:19on the Nifty.
00:38:20I'm going to just quickly pull up
00:38:22where the gainers are once again.
00:38:24And while we try to make sense of this,
00:38:25is this foreign money finding a better destination
00:38:30in India versus China?
00:38:32It could be any of those reasons that are coming in.
00:38:35But it's just a complete sea of green on the markets today.
00:38:42One of the top buzzes, of course, is Bharti Airtel.
00:38:45The stock is trading over 4% up as we speak.
00:38:48And there's a whole host of updates
00:38:50that have come in just today, nearly 5% up on Bharti Airtel.
00:38:53Now, Rucha brings us the details.
00:38:55Rucha, what is the news flow as far as Bharti is concerned?
00:38:58So Tamanna, you're right.
00:38:59Bharti Airtel has hit 52-week high.
00:39:02And this is on the back of three new updates, which
00:39:04has come today.
00:39:05Number one is that Bharti Airtel has signed an agreement
00:39:08with Sparkle for additional capacity, which
00:39:10connects India and Italy.
00:39:12But let me explain this in detail.
00:39:13Now, Sparkle is the first international service provider
00:39:16in Italy.
00:39:17And this additional capacity will
00:39:20be taken from Sparkle on the Blue Raman submarine cable
00:39:24system.
00:39:24So it is a way wherein the additional capacity will
00:39:27be deployed.
00:39:28And this will enable users to connect to the network
00:39:32between India and Italy.
00:39:33And this will also help Bharti Airtel
00:39:36to enhance its global presence.
00:39:38Second is that the company has expanded its home Wi-Fi
00:39:42services across all districts of Jammu, Kashmir, and Leh,
00:39:46Ladakh.
00:39:46And hence, this will aid the customer base as well in Jammu
00:39:50and Kashmir and Leh, Ladakh.
00:39:52The third point is that Airtel has completed deployment
00:39:54of additional spectrum, which it had purchased in July 2024
00:39:59in the areas of Chandigarh and Punjab.
00:40:02This will also result in wider coverage
00:40:04across highways, railroads, as well as increasing footprints
00:40:07in the rural areas of India.
00:40:09Now, all this will increase the customer base.
00:40:12And hence, remember that Airtel had mentioned
00:40:15that it targets an ARPU, that is average revenue
00:40:17per user, of rupees 300 versus the current levels
00:40:21of around 211 rupees per share.
00:40:23So I think all this will aid in achieving
00:40:25that target of 300 rupees average revenue per user.
00:40:30So a whole host of reasons that Bharti Airtel could run,
00:40:34but nothing that justifies a 4.5% uptick.
00:40:36I mean, nothing that explains why the Nifty right now
00:40:42is nearly 500 points up.
00:40:44But not that we're complaining, but it has to be in China.
00:40:48But why so?
00:40:49Why so, Neeraj?
00:40:49No, I'm just trying to think out loud
00:40:51that the one economy which is ailing
00:40:53and not doing anything is China.
00:40:55I mean, whatever measures they were coming out
00:40:57were found to be wanting.
00:40:58We know that the US is cutting, the ECB is due to cut.
00:41:01So the other major economies are cutting rates
00:41:02in order to boost.
00:41:03China was left out.
00:41:05China is doing this, which explains the metals,
00:41:07which explains why maybe Europe is doing what it is doing
00:41:09as well out of the ECB rate cuts.
00:41:11And this, I mean, right now, based on the reasons visible.
00:41:14So boost to China economy effectively,
00:41:17then even boost to India, because it's usually seen
00:41:19as an either-or situation.
00:41:21That's just what I'm trying to understand.
00:41:22But two reasons, one, boost to a risk on sentiment
00:41:26on commodities and others.
00:41:28And now if there's a concerted effort
00:41:30by global central banks across to try and ensure
00:41:33that growth rates don't really crash too much,
00:41:36is that a construct?
00:41:37Is that a positive thing?
00:41:38I mean, everybody wanted a rate cut cycle to come in.
00:41:41You have the rate cut cycle coming in,
00:41:42but what was the issue that, oh, is the growth dwindling?
00:41:46Is it too late?
00:41:47But if there are measures taken to ensure
00:41:50that growth also does, because if 20% of the world GDP
00:41:53contracts significantly, the world is gonna have issues.
00:41:56If they are trying to take measures, maybe, just maybe,
00:41:59growth also finds a bit of a flow.
00:42:00Yeah, but then does money, do foreign funds
00:42:03then flow into China or into India?
00:42:05It's a very good question.
00:42:06So yeah, so then that's the big macro question.
00:42:08But anyway, we'll wait and see what happens today.
00:42:10For right now, 25,400 standing strong.
00:42:14I have to come back to our chartists
00:42:15and ask them what they're seeing at 25,400.
00:42:19Let me start with you, Rajesh.
00:42:22So, Tamanna, yes, I think continuity of opt-in
00:42:25would be there, 25,400.
00:42:26We have already moved to that level.
00:42:28I think next target, 25,500,
00:42:31you could see easily in the Nifty
00:42:32as all large-scale stock, all Nifty constituents
00:42:35are showing good traction.
00:42:37Short covering is already done in most of the stocks.
00:42:39I think fresh buying action is also visible
00:42:43in some of the underperforming stocks.
00:42:45I think Bank Nifty, that is showing
00:42:47very commendable positioning at this moment
00:42:52as now we are almost trading at 51,800
00:42:55as we projected in the beginning of show
00:42:57that 51,800 to 52,000 could be there.
00:43:00I think here we could see more traction
00:43:03as most of the large-scale bank,
00:43:04private large-scale banks have shown
00:43:07very good buying interest in today's session.
00:43:09And I think here we could see further more traction
00:43:12and possibly in next one or two trading session,
00:43:15Bank Nifty may scale up to 52,500 kind of zone also
00:43:20as ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank,
00:43:23all these large-scale banks are at day high
00:43:25and the breakout is already visible.
00:43:27So we could see further more traction
00:43:29in large-scale private banks also.
00:43:33Okay, so that's the story as far as the Nifty is concerned.
00:43:39Kush, you wanna come back on what would be your next move?
00:43:44I can't help it, I can't help it.
00:43:47The index level changes every 10 minutes.
00:43:50I tell you the one guy who's not smiling though
00:43:52from amongst all of us is Aditya.
00:43:54Is Aditya, yeah.
00:43:55Are you short on the markets or what?
00:43:57We'll come to Kush, but Aditya, I'm really intrigued.
00:43:59Are you short on the markets?
00:44:01No, no, no, so I'm not short on the markets.
00:44:03I'm happy that my call on the private sector banks
00:44:05is really playing out and that was one space
00:44:09where the valuation was still okay
00:44:10rather than as you say, betting on the EMS space
00:44:14or any other space versus.
00:44:16So I'm really happy, of course I'm happy.
00:44:18But now the opportunities in the market
00:44:22become thinner and thinner.
00:44:23That's what I'm worried about.
00:44:25So a preemptive worry there from Aditya
00:44:28that opportunities become thinner
00:44:30but then that's what we all are here for.
00:44:32And Aditya, you will come back with those ideas as well,
00:44:34I'm sure, but Kush, on the index.
00:44:38I'm glad Aditya clarified why he had that grim look
00:44:41on his face.
00:44:41Otherwise I was wondering, he's probably laughing at me
00:44:43and Rajesh saying, they will keep giving levels
00:44:46of markets to him, but it's doing anything.
00:44:48That's it.
00:44:51Good one, good one.
00:44:53But Kush, come on, now you tell us the level, Kush.
00:44:58Sorry, we're losing.
00:44:59Am I losing, Kush?
00:45:00Yeah.
00:45:01Sorry, I'm not quite getting the audio
00:45:03from Kush properly.
00:45:04Am I audible?
00:45:05Yes.
00:45:06Okay, Kush.
00:45:07Sure.
00:45:08So as I said, I'll focus more on the Bank Nifty now.
00:45:10The Nifty is already balancing perhaps 25, 500
00:45:13in the near term is where it could hit
00:45:16and perhaps take a pause.
00:45:17I don't know.
00:45:17I'm just trying to conjecture here
00:45:19because we're going into uncharted territory.
00:45:21Bank Nifty, however, has been squeezed quite a lot,
00:45:24has underperformed 50 to 200 we spoke of in the near term.
00:45:28I think perhaps one good day and we'll be there.
00:45:30But then on the upside, beyond that 50 to 800
00:45:32is the level to look for.
00:45:34So still, if you want to play,
00:45:35I think Bank Nifty is the way to go.
00:45:38Okay.
00:45:39Now let's get to stock specific.
00:45:40The overall view and of course,
00:45:42the overall mood is very, very positive,
00:45:44but there are some stocks which are buzzing more
00:45:46than others in the space today.
00:45:48And this is on the back of a Nomura report
00:45:51on the whole EMS space.
00:45:52Dixon, Tech, Keynes, Motherson
00:45:54is some of the stocks they've talked about,
00:45:56but the real winner here is Keynes, isn't it?
00:45:59Puneet?
00:46:00Yeah, thanks for that.
00:46:01So Nomura has come up with a very, very positive report.
00:46:05They are seeing India being at an inflection point
00:46:07in the EMS space.
00:46:08And there are some factors that they mentioned
00:46:10that are leading to this.
00:46:11PLI benefits growing substantially,
00:46:13reducing imports from China,
00:46:15as well as the production and the consumption of electronics
00:46:18in the last couple of years has propelled us
00:46:20to become a $100 billion industry as of 2023.
00:46:24Nomura is predicting this to go to $450 billion
00:46:28just in the next six years by F530.
00:46:30And they are seeing the semiconductor manufacturing
00:46:33and packaging will be a long-term opportunity
00:46:36for these players.
00:46:37They also mentioned that the IT hardware segment
00:46:39specifically is seeing a lot of traction here
00:46:41and by F526 should be substantial part
00:46:44of company's revenues.
00:46:45Based on these two semiconductor as well as IT hardware,
00:46:48they are targeting two stocks.
00:46:49They've initiated coverage on Dixon Technology.
00:46:51Target price are roughly about 15,567.
00:46:54Now this was a 26% upside from the previous close,
00:46:58but it is one of the key beneficiaries
00:47:01of the localization trend going forward
00:47:04for electronics in India.
00:47:05Nomura says that they will be able to cater
00:47:07to a 30% market of the India mobile phone market by F527.
00:47:12And are expecting that valuations,
00:47:14although high at 60 times price to earning a F527,
00:47:17does give a good opportunity for the company.
00:47:20The other one, Scans Technology is initiating coverage
00:47:22by again with a target price of 5,969.
00:47:25Now although this was a 29% upside from the previous close,
00:47:29they are mentioning that the strong order book
00:47:31is driving growth visibility for the company
00:47:33and specifically the company's foray into semiconductors
00:47:37and they've got a cabinet approval as well
00:47:39for 3,300 odd crores.
00:47:40The setup of semiconductor plant in Gujarat,
00:47:42that's gonna be one of the key things to watch out for.
00:47:45Do note that the company's foray
00:47:46into PCB manufacturing as well.
00:47:48That's another growth aspect.
00:47:50They're estimating revenues from both of these segments
00:47:52to cross 4,000 crores by F530.
00:47:54Finally on Madarsan, they have mentioned
00:47:56that because of the focus of these EMS players
00:47:59on the automotive segment will lead to growth
00:48:01for Madarsan as well.
00:48:01They have a target of 204 rupees per share
00:48:04and they see that it may benefit
00:48:06from addressing the component ecosystem.
00:48:08So overall, real positive growth coming in on Keynes
00:48:11as well as Dixon Technology and Madarsan
00:48:13on the back of the automotive component segment growth.
00:48:15Back to you.
00:48:16Okay, so Keynes, Dixon, Madarsan are some of those
00:48:19that are buzzing today.
00:48:20Keynes more than anything, I mean frankly,
00:48:22apart from the Nomura note,
00:48:23everything else is known and in the public domain as well.
00:48:27But Rajesh, let me come to you on any of these counters
00:48:31that you're tracking, Keynes or Dixon, Madarsan as well.
00:48:36Well, Dixon and Keynes both are looking attractive.
00:48:38The way Keynes is now approaching
00:48:40to its previous swing high,
00:48:42I think there is a possibility that stock may continue
00:48:46furthermore upside to 5,300 kind of zone.
00:48:49I think those who have already long in the trade
00:48:51can hold on the position
00:48:53with trailing a stop loss of 5,070.
00:48:57Even in the Dixon also, we do believe
00:48:59that here also a possibility that stock may
00:49:02across the level of 13,000 in short span of time.
00:49:06I think the way stock is moving in up-sloping channel
00:49:09that clearly shows that a sustained buying action
00:49:11is taking place in this stock.
00:49:13And minor dips are again attracting
00:49:15the buying interest in this counter.
00:49:18So I think 13,000, 13,200 would be the next target
00:49:21for Dixon Tech.
00:49:22I think here also one can even hold their position
00:49:26or even the fresh buying can be done
00:49:29with stop loss of 12,650.
00:49:33Okay, now just a fun factoid before,
00:49:36and actually maybe we should try
00:49:37and take in closing strategies too very quickly.
00:49:39But the fun factoid is that on this day,
00:49:43which is September 12th, 30 years ago,
00:49:46in the year 1994, the Sensex,
00:49:49we should have the Sensex on the screen.
00:49:51The Sensex posted the then all-time high
00:49:55of 4643.31.
00:49:59From there to 82,900,
00:50:04it's been a seriously strong ride.
00:50:07Wow.
00:50:08And you know we-
00:50:09This is Rajat Bose, of course, who sent this to me.
00:50:11Yeah, and if there's anyone who knows his trivia
00:50:13and his numbers, it is Rajat Bose.
00:50:16The thing is that the ease with which
00:50:18we've been hitting every new high
00:50:21is perhaps sometimes we end up taking for granted
00:50:23what really has happened with Indian markets
00:50:26and the kind of move that we've seen.
00:50:28This is, I mean, astonishing at all levels.
00:50:30You might see a pullback tomorrow.
00:50:33You might see some profit booking.
00:50:34All that is fine, but look at that one-way trajectory
00:50:37that we have been seeing.
00:50:38Mark is coming off its highest points,
00:50:39but steadily above the 25,300 mark,
00:50:43undoubtedly, right now.
00:50:46But let's talk about more stories
00:50:47that we're covering this afternoon
00:50:48on NDTV Profit and an exclusive story coming in.
00:50:51In fact, the RBI is not in favor
00:50:55of State Bank of India's 51% stake sale proposal in Yes Bank.
00:50:59My colleague Subhana Sheikh
00:51:00joins in with this exclusive detail.
00:51:05SBI stake sale in Yes Bank has now reached in a limbo.
00:51:08According to a source, a couple of Japanese bank
00:51:11had shown interest in terms of buying stake in Yes Bank.
00:51:15However, this deal has now hit a roadblock
00:51:18because RBI has not yet received
00:51:22a fit and proper check of this deal.
00:51:25Some context to this, back in 2020,
00:51:29when the whole Yes Bank fiasco had happened,
00:51:32State Bank of India had stepped in
00:51:34and bought stake in Yes Bank.
00:51:37A couple of other banks had also bought stake.
00:51:40Now, SBI has been trying to offload this stake
00:51:43for some time now.
00:51:44That is why these Japanese banks were showing interest.
00:51:47However, the RBI, the whole stake sale deal
00:51:52has now hit a roadblock.
00:51:55The stake sale was supposed to happen
00:51:57by the end of this financial year.
00:51:59However, now this seems like it has been delayed.
00:52:04All right, so that's the big story on Yes Bank and SBI.
00:52:08Actually, it's bad news for both,
00:52:09but I doubt too much reaction coming in right now
00:52:11because this is one of those tides
00:52:13which lifts all boats and SBI
00:52:15is definitely on that tide right now.
00:52:18Yes Bank, though, showing the pressure
00:52:20even on a very, very good day, about 2% down right now.
00:52:24Aditya, you spoke a little while earlier
00:52:26that your take on private banks
00:52:29is exactly how you thought it would pan out.
00:52:31What about public sector banks?
00:52:33Where do you stand on opportunities
00:52:35in your NBFC financials kind of pack?
00:52:39So I have questions on PSU banks.
00:52:41Some of the PSU banks have varied dramatically
00:52:43and we've already seen asset quality
00:52:46from being the finest is starting to deteriorate now.
00:52:50And one needs to be cautious on the PSU banks per se.
00:52:54Having said that, I'm always positive
00:52:56on a couple of PSU banks, which will include SBI.
00:52:59SBI will continue to do extremely well.
00:53:02Then Canada Bank will continue to do extremely well
00:53:04within the PSU space.
00:53:06And Indian Bank is the third one
00:53:08which will continue to do extremely well.
00:53:10So these three are the ones that I'm looking for.
00:53:12And if you talk about the NBFC space,
00:53:14then you have to look beyond Bajaj Finance.
00:53:18Bajaj Finance has been doing extremely well
00:53:20over the last two, two and a half years.
00:53:23But the stock price has taken a time correction.
00:53:26A valuation correction has already taken place.
00:53:29And with the Bajaj Housing Finance IPO coming up,
00:53:31a huge value is going to take place
00:53:33within the Bajaj Finance stock.
00:53:36So within the NBFC space,
00:53:37now my topic continues to be Bajaj Finance.
00:53:40And within the PSU, SBI, followed by Canada.
00:53:45What would you do with private banks right now, Aditya?
00:53:48I'll continue to hold.
00:53:49This phase has just started.
00:53:50In my opinion, a lot of them have undergone
00:53:53a time correction over the last two, two and a half years.
00:53:56And this is just the start of the rally
00:53:58where large private sector banks
00:54:00will continue to outperform the PSU banks
00:54:02and the smaller private sector banks.
00:54:05So continue to hold on to all of them.
00:54:08Okay, continue to hold on to all of it.
00:54:11All right.
00:54:12Now here's a question which Kush and Rajesh
00:54:14will find interesting to answer.
00:54:17Let's get closing strategies.
00:54:18What are your BTSD calls for tomorrow?
00:54:21How do you set yourself up for a great Friday?
00:54:28So for me, again, private sector bank,
00:54:31Kotak Bank, I would take as a BTSD.
00:54:34The stock managed to give breakout
00:54:35of falling trend line on a daily chart.
00:54:37Contracting triangle, triangular formation
00:54:40and breakout is already done on the stock.
00:54:42I think Kotak Bank can extend its gain
00:54:45towards 1865 to 1870.
00:54:49So here one can buy as a BTSD with stop loss of 1810.
00:54:53Another stock is GMR Airport.
00:54:56After correction, again, stock is showing good traction
00:54:59in terms of buying and stock is now trading at day high.
00:55:03The way stock is penetrating its falling trend line,
00:55:06I think there is a potential of 98 to 100 rupees
00:55:10kind of move we can see.
00:55:11So GMR Airport is BTSD with stop loss of 92
00:55:15and third one is Zomato.
00:55:17Zomato is again now trading at all time high trajectory
00:55:20and throughout the day we have seen a good buying action.
00:55:23So I think Zomato can be a stock as a BTSD
00:55:26for upside target of 295 to 298.
00:55:29Stop loss can be placed at 278.
00:55:34All right.
00:55:35Rajesh, what about you?
00:55:36Your ideas?
00:55:38Couple of them, more like updates as well.
00:55:40You know, we had discussed around the levels of 1930,
00:55:44just about a week ago and the second target was 1995 on this
00:55:49about the three and a half percent kind of returns
00:55:51on an F&O stock.
00:55:52Not a bad move.
00:55:53I think this could continue.
00:55:54The volumes are also pretty, you know,
00:55:56encouraging on this one.
00:55:57So I think on the upside,
00:55:58you're looking at a move towards 2020 and 2050 on this one.
00:56:01The stop loss will now be at 1917.
00:56:04Concord Biotech, you know,
00:56:06every time we discussed pharma,
00:56:07this was the one stock that we discussed time and again.
00:56:091950 was the second target.
00:56:11Well, head and shoulders above that.
00:56:14The move still continues,
00:56:15still some distance away from the overheated territory.
00:56:18So you could continue to ride this for levels of 2100 and 2175
00:56:22and on the downside now you place your stop loss
00:56:24near 1960 levels.
00:56:27Concord Bio, one of those tomorrow that you could look at
00:56:30stocks already 4% up,
00:56:32but you know, even as we go into the last few minutes
00:56:35of Trade Neeraj, I think the other big story
00:56:37to look at post-closing is our own inflation numbers,
00:56:41which are going to come in.
00:56:42Because remember, retail inflation is expected to remain
00:56:46at a five year low in August.
00:56:48CPI data will be out later this evening.
00:56:51It's projected to ease with 3.42% in August.
00:56:55That's because of base effect
00:56:56and continuing easing in food pressures.
00:56:59Retail inflation will come within RBI's target
00:57:02of 4% and high frequency data is suggesting
00:57:04easing in prices of tomatoes on annual and sequential basis.
00:57:08Now I was reading this piece, Neeraj,
00:57:10about how just the drop in prices of tomatoes
00:57:13have dropped the price of entire thalis
00:57:15and meat, veg and non-veg by 30 to 40%.
00:57:19So I mean, that's the kind of vagaries
00:57:22the food basket is subject to.
00:57:24I would say Indian and Italian both.
00:57:26Indian and Italian, Mexican as well, why not?
00:57:29Mexican as well.
00:57:31But nevertheless, I mean, if you have a good figure,
00:57:34a good number, market doesn't generally move too much
00:57:36on the inflation number,
00:57:38but more good news is always welcome
00:57:40if that's what we see later today.
00:57:42Yeah, why not?
00:57:42Aditya, well, so maybe more good news, welcome.
00:57:46You were constructive on banks.
00:57:48Last word to you.
00:57:49Anything that you can think of as an investment candidate
00:57:54aside of large banks currently?
00:57:56We have about 60 seconds, Aditya.
00:57:59So the mantra theme, chemicals,
00:58:01we've seen Gujarat move from 3,000 to about 5,000 now.
00:58:06There's a company called Aquatex Industries
00:58:08that you can watch out for.
00:58:11There are companies in the diagnostic space as well.
00:58:14Let's say companies like Krishna Diagnostics
00:58:15who are doing exceptionally well.
00:58:17There are companies within the auto-ancillary space as well.
00:58:20Companies like Motherson, companies like RACL,
00:58:23Gatech, who are doing extremely well.
00:58:25So these are all the themes that you can watch out for.
00:58:28And these have to be long-term investments
00:58:29and not short-term investments.
00:58:31Yeah, well, Gujarat, Flora, Aditya is right,
00:58:34has had a stellar run.
00:58:35But yeah, long-term investments at the current context.
00:58:39But gentlemen, all three of you on such a celebratory day,
00:58:42thank you so much for being with us
00:58:44and giving us your thoughts.
00:58:45Really appreciate your time.
00:58:47And what a day it has been.
00:58:49I know we tend to celebrate bull markets
00:58:51and some bears will argue why not the bearish side,
00:58:54but hey, most people are invested
00:58:56and therefore the bulls deserve the cheer.
00:58:57But what a day today, what a day.
00:58:59And what a close, Tamanna.
00:59:00You could argue that we are not 2% high, about 1.6,
00:59:03but that's quibbling really for the chop change.
00:59:06You have to leave something for tomorrow
00:59:08because you're going to close out the week.
00:59:11Now, what are we going to see in the next few hours
00:59:13before we get to markets open tomorrow?
00:59:15You're going to see CPI data from India.
00:59:17You're going to see PPI data coming in the US,
00:59:20production price index as well.
00:59:22So that would set you up perhaps for great global cues,
00:59:25more clarity on what's happening in China.
00:59:27So the global piece becomes fairly important
00:59:30on a day like this.
00:59:31I would be keen to see what that FII figure is also
00:59:34this evening and how much that's perhaps contributed
00:59:36to this kind of afternoon delight that we've seen.
00:59:40Could be very, very interesting to see that number for sure.
00:59:42But very quickly as we wrap up,
00:59:43just a snapshot of the Nifty 50 heat map,
00:59:47just to show you two stocks in the red
00:59:50and hardly in the red, but look at the greens
00:59:52and the list has stayed the same.
00:59:53So I won't argue too much,
00:59:54but just note that metals in addition to everything else
00:59:58have done really well.
00:59:59And that's a bit of a surprise move ahead.
01:00:00Yeah.
01:00:01On the broader side of the markets,
01:00:03just quickly the small cap and the mid cap,
01:00:05because is this a Nifty story only?
01:00:07Not really, though obviously all the fireworks
01:00:10are on the Nifty right now.
01:00:12So you're seeing the small cap and the mid cap index
01:00:15just about a percent up.
01:00:16Top gainers and losers on the broader end of the spectrum
01:00:18before we wrap for the day.
01:00:21On the gaining side, century textiles,
01:00:23Engineers India has had an interesting spike there.
01:00:26Kalyan Joel is in the back of an HSBC note
01:00:28today doing pretty well.
01:00:30So CG Power, all of the Semicon stocks
01:00:33actually fairly buzzing in trade.
01:00:36I don't know how Acane's tech has ended,
01:00:38but that will be interesting to see.
01:00:40Prism John is seeing a second day in a row
01:00:42of profit booking.
01:00:43Granules because of six US FDA observations
01:00:46is in a bit of pain as well,
01:00:49but many more gainers than losers.
01:00:51So it's been a good day and we'll see you back
01:00:53on India Market Open to set you up for trade tomorrow.
01:00:56But for now from Neeraj and me and the entire team
01:00:58that put the show together,
01:01:00thank you so much for watching.
01:02:21It's ready, we'll do a slightly longer one, yeah?
01:02:51Many blocks they have, no problem.
01:02:52Kali ek nifty ka line graph dikhao, please.
01:02:59Sensex, nifty, whatever.