- #Sensex, #Nifty extend decline
- Volume buzzers, large trades
Samina Nalwala and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
- Volume buzzers, large trades
Samina Nalwala and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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00:02:05 Hello and welcome to India Market Close.
00:02:07 And it's the third straight day of weakness on D Street.
00:02:10 The markets continue to see selling pressure as we head into the last hour of trade.
00:02:15 Well, we're off the day's low point, which was 21,285.
00:02:18 We are pretty much at the same point as we were when we started trading at 9 a.m. this morning.
00:02:23 144 points off on the Nifty 50.
00:02:26 The Sensex as well trades with a similar cutter.
00:02:29 So, no major relief has come in through the most part of the trading day.
00:02:32 Intraday lows were made.
00:02:33 We have recovered from that, closing pretty, I mean, trading pretty much 50 to 60 points away
00:02:38 from the intraday high that the markets had made.
00:02:41 Bang Nifty is a weak spot and is probably single-handedly pulling the Nifty lower.
00:02:46 There are three stocks that are responsible for today's fall.
00:02:49 We will take you through that in a minute.
00:02:50 But Bang Nifty down 500 odd points, 45,560 is what Bang Nifty trades at.
00:02:57 Broader markets were actually doing better than the benchmark in the first half of trade.
00:03:01 But that equation has now changed slightly with the broader markets performing or declining
00:03:06 in line with the benchmark itself.
00:03:07 In fact, just to put this in perspective, the mid-cap and the small-cap index actually
00:03:11 opened positive in the first few ticks of trade this morning,
00:03:14 but very quickly have declined to trade in line with the benchmark itself.
00:03:18 Well, the small-cap is still not looking as bad as the mid-cap.
00:03:20 The mid-cap and the Nifty pretty much trading in line with each other.
00:03:23 Well, the breadth of the market has definitely improved from the get-go this morning.
00:03:28 It still doesn't look very good, but you have seen some amount of stocks advancing,
00:03:33 which weren't really doing so in the first half of trade.
00:03:36 The declining numbers still outpacing advances by almost double.
00:03:39 Well, those are the top gainers and losers in trade.
00:03:42 Like I said, three to four counters that have single-handedly let the index lower today.
00:03:46 It's LTI Mindtree, the counter is getting trashed on back of numbers that some believe
00:03:51 are below street expectations.
00:03:53 Margins expansion was not seen.
00:03:55 Guidance has been pushed forward.
00:03:57 No clarity in terms of when there could be recovery and uptick for the company is what's
00:04:02 pulling the stock lower.
00:04:03 11% cut on LTI Mindtree is what we have.
00:04:06 NDPC seeing a cut of 4%.
00:04:08 HDFC Bank after a nearly 9% fall yesterday continues to trade the cut of 0.35%, dip below
00:04:15 1500 and is trading around those levels even as we speak.
00:04:18 Power Grid down 2.5%.
00:04:20 Asian Paints numbers weren't too bad, but the street doesn't seem very overjoyed by that.
00:04:24 The stock corrected yesterday in the last few minutes of trade, continues to do so today
00:04:28 as well, 2.5% off on Asian Paints is what we have.
00:04:32 On the gaining side, Sun Pharma on back of soon to be completed acquisition of Taro.
00:04:38 The stock is getting a thumbs up.
00:04:40 Its revenue accretive, remember with 100% owned subsidiary or company of Sun Pharma.
00:04:44 The counter trades 2.5% higher.
00:04:46 Cipla is not doing too badly.
00:04:48 I guess LTI Mindtree is lost since we take mind there's gain 2% higher this afternoon.
00:04:52 M&M, Tata Motors, auto is not looking too bad.
00:04:55 L&T on an order win.
00:04:57 Some of your banks which were getting sold off yesterday on back of a contagion effect of HDFC
00:05:02 such as Axis Bank and ICICI Bank have probably found their feet in afternoon trade.
00:05:08 All in all, it's a down day.
00:05:11 No surprises there, Harsh, but we aren't doing as badly as the intraday low and I do feel like
00:05:16 the likes of HDFC Bank will soon find their feet and we should settle at these levels if not recover.
00:05:21 Absolutely, Samina.
00:05:23 Few stocks which are buzzing in trade today, you've pointed out a few, especially on the benchmark.
00:05:29 But let's take it to the broader market quickly.
00:05:32 We have Shakti Pumps in focus, QIP coming in there, 200 odd crore.
00:05:37 You also have the likes of Tata Motors among the frontliners.
00:05:41 We have a positive note coming in from Bofa which has helped the stock gain around a percent or thereabouts.
00:05:49 Ajmera and Keystone, both those counters in focus on the back of a tie-up that they've had
00:05:54 with regard to development of a project worth 760 odd crores.
00:05:59 Both companies will be holding a 50% stake.
00:06:03 You can see that spike in Ajmera on the back of that.
00:06:06 Max Health around half a percent of the total market cap has exchanged hands
00:06:12 and therefore you're seeing that 3% down on the stock.
00:06:15 Leland, order win, 520 crores in consideration and you're seeing that stock a buzz as well.
00:06:22 Aarti Industries, 6000 crore new order win coming through.
00:06:26 Four-year supply contract, 1500 crore per year starting FY25.
00:06:30 We spoke with the management, that stock is up in a way as well, 4.5% plus.
00:06:34 NHPC in focus because government is selling stake.
00:06:37 I expect it to pre-call. Minda also in focus. Minda has sold 15.5% in pre-call at 343.
00:06:45 You're seeing even pre-call largely in focus and that one's the real beneficiary.
00:06:50 Sun Pharma, Samina spoke about.
00:06:52 We also have within the earnings pack several stocks in focus.
00:06:56 Oracle Finance, the two big ones, of course, HDFC Bank and LTI Minetree still continue to be in focus.
00:07:03 ICICI Proo is down on the back of results.
00:07:06 Alok Industries, Happiest Minds as well as South Indian Bank.
00:07:10 If we can quickly have those, you'll see the reaction there as well.
00:07:15 Positive on South Indian Bank on the back of a strong path growth coming in and Happiest Minds down 4.5%.
00:07:23 Those are all of the stocks in focus, Samina.
00:07:25 It's insane, right? You get stocks like Oracle that actually gain with the kind of gains that we've seen.
00:07:31 Unprecedented moves is often what some of these stocks have been seeing in the last couple of weeks or at least in this part of the rally.
00:07:39 Rakil like Harsh Mithyend has impressed the streets so much so that the stock trades with a gain of 28%.
00:07:47 Soba, I want to quickly mention, I'm not sure if he mentioned that, the stock is up 14%, so very sharp rally playing out there.
00:07:54 Vaibhav Global, now this is an interesting counter.
00:07:56 It's been a huge underperformer in the last few years.
00:08:00 We actually had caught up with one of the marquee investors in Vaibhav Global, which is Sumit of Malabar Investments.
00:08:08 He was talking about how the company's prospects are looking great.
00:08:11 They've also raised some funds for massive expansion plans this year and that could be keeping the stock together up 7% in trade.
00:08:17 Apollo Tires is up 6.5%. So, auto ancillary is actually looking pretty good today.
00:08:21 Castrol India also trading with a little bit of a gain.
00:08:24 Seat, tire companies in particular are having a pretty pleasant day.
00:08:28 Apart from LTI, Mindtree, Alok has got a thumbs down in numbers.
00:08:31 The stock is down 6.5%.
00:08:33 Koforge is seeing some weakness.
00:08:35 You've also got Capri Global.
00:08:37 Now, remember, Capri Global as well has been a big gainer in the last few days.
00:08:41 There was fundraising there.
00:08:43 The company we caught up with yesterday seems very optimistic and bullish about the outlook.
00:08:47 What you're seeing this afternoon is pure and simple profit-taking.
00:08:51 So, that's literally the texture of the market.
00:08:53 Stock-specific action, but you've got some stocks that are leading the losses on back of earnings largely.
00:08:59 Well, a quick mention of Europe, if I can get that on the screen before we go over to Gaurav Biswa
00:09:03 and get a sense of the markets from him as well.
00:09:05 Europe, remember, is seeing a flat start from what I last checked.
00:09:10 There you go. That's exactly how it is.
00:09:12 CAC is looking okay, but the DAX and the FTSE are trading flat.
00:09:15 They, remember, was at a pretty rough day in trade yesterday.
00:09:17 So, those markets as they open up are trying to find some sort of sanity this afternoon.
00:09:22 But Gaurav Biswa, Vice President in Credit Equities, now joins us.
00:09:25 Gaurav, hi, good morning. Sorry, good afternoon.
00:09:28 How are you feeling about the markets?
00:09:31 We've seen a big fall.
00:09:33 I don't know whether a 4% really qualifies as a big fall,
00:09:36 especially after the kind of rally and run-up that we've seen in the last couple of months.
00:09:40 But what are the thoughts on the Nifty and what's the strategy on the Nifty at these levels?
00:09:45 Very good afternoon and thank you for inviting me on the show.
00:09:49 Yes, indeed, 4% might not sound that large unless you are a put writer.
00:09:54 Having said that, Nifty is not trading near its support area, 21,450.
00:09:59 440 is the immediate support area.
00:10:01 It's hinching around those levels for Bank Nifty.
00:10:04 The supports are placed at 45,400 on the spot side.
00:10:08 Again, it's slightly above that.
00:10:10 So, in my opinion, if these levels are sustained, we may see some relief upside.
00:10:14 I will not call this as a bottom that from here on we'll have a fresh left-hand high,
00:10:20 but a bounce back cannot be ruled out.
00:10:24 We have seen RSI on the lower time frames, intraday time frames being an extremely oversold zone.
00:10:29 So, under that perspective, you can see that even though from just almost a flat kind of move in Nifty,
00:10:36 we are down 130, 140 points, but we have again tried to recover.
00:10:40 And that is because your RSI is still in the oversold zone and that is trying to make sure that we don't fall too much.
00:10:48 So, yes, today we might end on a negative note.
00:10:51 We might not fall very deep.
00:10:53 And tomorrow, if we sustain again above 21,500 and 45,500 for Bank Nifty,
00:10:59 we may see some upside towards the level of 21,850 in the coming days.
00:11:04 So, right now, we are not that bearish.
00:11:06 We were a few days back, but right now we are hopeful of a bounce.
00:11:10 Gaurav, we made an intraday low of 21,285.
00:11:16 We bounced back from that to levels of 21,480 odd.
00:11:21 What sort of a closing are you watching out for in today's day of trade that could probably for the interim,
00:11:28 lead to maybe a dead cat bounce of that?
00:11:32 That will be around levels of 21,500 because people who got comfortable writing call options will now again be forced to cover the positions.
00:11:42 And we may see some short covering also once Nifty sustains above 21,500.
00:11:47 So, for me, that is a good level to watch out for.
00:11:50 And if that sustains, then today's low, that becomes the trigger point of many of the stop-losses of the long position.
00:11:58 We may see a decent upside.
00:12:00 We will have a day where we had a panic bottom.
00:12:03 We had a very strong bounce, very strong recovery from the panic bottom.
00:12:07 And then we are comfortably sustaining above an immediate resistance of 21,500.
00:12:12 So, these three factors combined can result in some amount of upside in the Nifty in the coming days.
00:12:17 Got it, Gaurav. Harsh also joining in.
00:12:20 Gaurav, if I can have your views on two counters in particular, it's TFC Bank.
00:12:24 What should one do? How are charts looking?
00:12:26 And LTI Mine Tree, both of those big ones are beaten in trade.
00:12:31 See, it's very easy to answer for SDFC Bank.
00:12:35 The disclaimer, we have advised our clients to buy SDFC Bank today.
00:12:40 We are not suggesting a buy for a trading perspective.
00:12:44 But for long-term investors, we have pushed them to buy at least a partial quarantine to be bought at the current juncture.
00:12:51 Yesterday, the area was pointing towards a 10% cut. And if there were a similar kind of fall that we would have seen today, 8%, 9%,
00:12:58 then we would have bought the entire quantity, but it was a 2%, 3% downside.
00:13:03 So, in that perspective, we are keeping some cash to average it out again once it goes towards 1400.
00:13:09 The long-term structure remains extremely positive.
00:13:12 And I think this is going to be one of the last falls, another 5%, 7% from here.
00:13:17 And then we can see a very sustained upside.
00:13:19 So, we may see some underperformance on an immediate basis.
00:13:22 It might trade in a range. It might remain sluggish, how it has been doing for the last one year.
00:13:27 But the intensity of the fall will not be that high going forward.
00:13:31 It's HDFC Bank that we are talking about.
00:13:35 Gaurav, even if you, like you said, you have recommended a long trade to your clients and, you know, your clients largely.
00:13:45 What is the sort of upside that we are watching out for?
00:13:49 So, even if we do get a revival or a return or some sort of a recovery coming in, what should be a good take profit level?
00:13:56 So, our conserved targets are Rs. 1750-1800, which we are expecting in a year.
00:14:02 And from that, we may see a fresh momentum sort of coming in.
00:14:05 So, on our property models, there have been four instances where it has come to extreme levels.
00:14:11 And in all the three or four instances, we have seen a very sharp rise coming in.
00:14:16 It makes a fresh lifetime high within months and it does into long term uptrend.
00:14:21 That extreme level would have been Rs. 1300 if it would have fallen towards those levels.
00:14:25 Since it has not approached those levels, we are not very aggressively buying.
00:14:28 But what we are expecting is that at least a lifetime high can be seen this year.
00:14:33 And then we may review whether we need to keep booking profits or we need to ride the trend.
00:14:39 Vineet Bulinkar also joins in. Vineet, good afternoon.
00:14:44 We spoke a few days ago and a lot has changed since then, it seems like it.
00:14:48 The markets are looking a little less nervous than they did this morning.
00:14:52 But we are still not being able to pull through any sort of meaningful recovery on the benchmark.
00:14:58 Before we get to the benchmark conversation, just for the sake of continuity, we talked of course about HDFC Bank.
00:15:07 What are you making of those numbers? Do you feel like the reaction has been a little overdone with the way the stock is corrected?
00:15:13 And also being mindful of the fact that none of the brokerages have downgraded the counter despite numbers being a slight disappointment?
00:15:20 So, we have to look at it. We have had 22% top line growth and your NIMS have gone from 4.2 to 3.4.
00:15:30 So, you have taken a 14% hit, effectively you have grown your top line at about 8%.
00:15:35 And your EPS has turned negative. That is a very negative concern for everybody, generally.
00:15:43 And unless and until your NIMS start coming back or you show some kind of traction around deposit mobilization,
00:15:51 which will help to boost your NIMS, I think things are going to remain in a kind of a suspended motion in terms of HDFC Bank.
00:16:03 Before we can expect any re-rating to happen.
00:16:06 So, to that extent, I think we last spoke that our topics are going to be AXS, Kotak, and HDFC Bank in that order.
00:16:16 And I think that kind of situation is now playing out.
00:16:20 So, when AXS is available at reasonable growth and valuations, with steady NIMS not expecting too much of deterioration out there,
00:16:30 why venture into stocks where there is growth concerns are happening?
00:16:36 So, I guess that is my take and I think AXS provides a better opportunity than HDFC Bank at this point in time.
00:16:44 Point taken, Vineet. AXS over HDFC at this point.
00:16:48 But I'm going to quickly address because we've got Tata Communications numbers which have just come out.
00:16:54 You've got revenue which is up roughly 16% sequential.
00:16:58 You're also seeing EBITDA which is up roughly 12% sequential.
00:17:03 So, there's a bit of a margin decline that we are seeing.
00:17:05 From 20.8 margins have declined to 20.1, around 70 odd bips of decline that we are seeing.
00:17:11 There's an exceptional loss which is also at play in Q3.
00:17:14 I have to try and dig in and understand more on that.
00:17:17 But outside of that, you're seeing a profit of around 45 crore.
00:17:21 And if I remove that exceptional loss, you're seeing a profit of roughly 230 crore.
00:17:26 Not bad at all. Sequential uptick when I'm removing that exceptional loss.
00:17:30 And you can see that there's a little bit of a spike on the stock on the back of that.
00:17:35 But we'll discuss that and much more.
00:17:37 Lots to address including Stock of the Day's Amina which is LTI Mindtree.
00:17:41 On the other side, time for a quick breather.
00:17:43 You stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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00:21:44 Welcome back. It's turning out to be quite the afternoon.
00:21:47 Markets finding the feet after the big fall yesterday, some losses this morning and now consolidating around 21,481.
00:21:54 We are seeing a little bit of a recovery if you can see on the charts well off the day's low point, 21,482.
00:22:01 The markets will attempt to try and close about 21,500 if the bulls have their way.
00:22:06 In terms of the broader markets, there are lots of stocks that are quite active.
00:22:10 So, while the big losers are sort of pulling the counters down,
00:22:14 there are counters like Soba from the broader markets that are actually having quite a field day in trade.
00:22:18 One of, talking with Soba, the stock saw very high volumes in intraday trade.
00:22:23 In fact, the volumes were up about 23% on the counter.
00:22:27 The stock is up 14%. Mahima is joining us with more on this.
00:22:31 Mahima, what's going on? Massive volumes, big gains, but I believe Mahima is still micing up.
00:22:37 But in the interim, I'll go to Gaurav. Gaurav, have you been tracking Soba?
00:22:41 Sharp, smart up move. Volumes have been exceptionally large.
00:22:46 On the charts, how does Soba look?
00:22:49 I have been tracking it very, very closely and I would say that I missed it.
00:22:55 The reason being that it had a 10-year breakout on charts.
00:22:59 So, it has the best structure among the real estate names.
00:23:02 A very strong breakout, very strong volume participation.
00:23:06 And since it was a multi-year, almost a decade-long breakout, I was waiting for at least a weekly close for confirmation.
00:23:13 The breakout happened at 1050-1060.
00:23:16 And because I was waiting for weekly confirmation, it moved past 1200-1250 right away.
00:23:22 And then the rest of the history did not come down even to 1200 once.
00:23:26 So, the structure was what one can definitely keep holding.
00:23:29 The structure is extremely strong and the targets are quite large even from the current levels.
00:23:34 But somebody who wants to buy fresh, wait for a correction, the current move has been more of a breakout outcome that we have seen.
00:23:45 Deconsolution breakout outcome. Volumes are rising.
00:23:49 But the risk would not be that favorable.
00:23:51 So, in my opinion, if somebody wants to buy, wait for a decline and that too a sufficient decline, not just 5% decline.
00:23:58 And then why? Because the stop loss will be deep even if you are looking for trading.
00:24:01 Even if you have a 2-3 year horizon, I would still recommend, let it come at least to 1200-1250.
00:24:06 Add some quantity over there. And if at all you get more correction, you can add the remaining quantity.
00:24:11 But I would not suggest buying at the current levels.
00:24:14 Right. Thanks for that. Let me go across to Vineet.
00:24:17 Vineet, your views when it comes to Sobha as well as the larger real estate pack.
00:24:21 They have had a phenomenal run. How do you view those and which are your picks within that pack?
00:24:27 So, obviously, Sobha is one of our picks. But we think that DB Realty has really been a very, very strong outperformer.
00:24:34 And, you know, given the land bank that it has and with all the corporate governance issues, funding issues over with,
00:24:42 I think this stock has substantial room to grow. We are expecting this stock to double in the next three years.
00:24:48 Right. And how are you viewing valuations in this space, Vineet?
00:24:54 Any specific stocks which you feel are standing out outside of Sobha within this basket as well as within the small and mid caps?
00:25:03 There are several, you know, the likes of a Suntech Realty, which have done fairly well.
00:25:09 But commentary continues to be quite strong, even from analysts, street analysts, as well as from the management.
00:25:16 Any particular ones which have really caught your eye in terms of valuations now that this has already gone up?
00:25:22 I think Maninfra looks to be a very interesting story.
00:25:25 We believe that the land parcel that they've acquired recently in Chembu is a very prime parcel.
00:25:30 And we expect some rich dividends to come in from there. And accordingly, I think that this stock still has a lot of room to grow.
00:25:40 That's a few recommendations coming from Vineet as well. In the meantime, a stock we can't get our eyes off is Herakle Financial.
00:25:49 The stock is up 27 percent. I mean, that's a whopping gain.
00:25:53 That is how stocks that don't even do that in years together, this one's done that in one day on back of strong earnings.
00:25:59 Mahima is standing by with more on that. Mahima, what's going on? I mean, how good are these numbers?
00:26:03 Right, Samina. So the numbers are really good. The result for Q3 has been tremendous.
00:26:08 In fact, the revenue is up 26 percent. And if we talk about EBIT, EBIT has been up over 57 percent.
00:26:14 And margins are significantly improved. If we compare it to the last quarter, the margins have improved from 37 percent to 46.5 percent, which is a huge uptake.
00:26:23 Again, net profit is up 77.5 percent, which is also a huge rise in terms of net profit.
00:26:30 If we talk about the key highlights that we can take away from the result, the license fee is the major takeaway, where it is increased by 76 percent as compared to the last fiscal year.
00:26:42 And 19 customers were added in this quarter for Herakle and 50 percent of the revenue came from U.S. and Asia-Pacific region.
00:26:49 Also, it is worthy to note that their attrition rate has decreased from 15 percent to 10 percent.
00:26:55 And if we talk about the stock performance, as you rightly mentioned, the stock has gained over 27 percent today.
00:27:00 And in six months, the stock has gained 57 percent and one year around 97.8 percent.
00:27:06 So the stock has also been performing great today on the back of tremendous results.
00:27:12 And also there was a large trade that took place of around 54,000 shares at a price of 6,103.
00:27:19 And the shares are trading in high in volumes at 20 times its 20-day average.
00:27:24 So overall, positive results have really worked out well for the stock.
00:27:29 Right. Gaurav, do you track Herakle financials?
00:27:32 I'm not sure if this is in the futures space as well or just a cash stock, but a 30 percent up move, it's unheard of.
00:27:40 Well, certainly. This is a tremendous upside by any standards.
00:27:45 And it had a fresh breakout in the morning itself.
00:27:48 It made a fresh swing high breakout this week at 5,200.
00:27:53 It had a fresh breakout at 5,700 today on a weekly chart as well.
00:27:58 And since then, there's no stopping. Again, if somebody has already bought, can book certain profits and keep the remaining portion intact.
00:28:06 This is the first time we have seen an eight year, nine year breakout.
00:28:09 And from here on, we can see again some more upsets sort of coming in.
00:28:12 But somebody who is looking to buy again, I would certainly not suggest to do that.
00:28:17 But some profit booking and that's the use trailing stock loss for adding further upside is what I would suggest for people who have already bought.
00:28:26 Right. Thanks. Let me also move over, Vineet, if you can talk to us about your views on Herakle with regard to valuations.
00:28:35 Of course, it's a good result, but a 28 percent gain in a day.
00:28:40 How do you view valuations now, given the fact that there's been a significant run up only today itself?
00:28:48 So, you know, we have to see the numbers in light of what they've been doing in the recent past.
00:28:54 Absolutely no growth or very, very marginal growth.
00:28:57 And suddenly you have this outlier jump in pump in earnings, not only in terms of revenue booking, but also in terms of the margins expanding.
00:29:06 So what we are expecting is that, you know, with this license revenue coming in, OK, this will be followed up with a lot of AMC and operating revenues that come in.
00:29:17 So this is not just the end of everything that is happening.
00:29:23 In fact, it is just the beginning of a new upcoming that has started.
00:29:27 And this is going to have multiplier effects going ahead.
00:29:32 So I don't think that this is the, you know, like there's too much concern out here.
00:29:39 Of course, action has been very fast. But, you know, any dips should be bought into now.
00:29:45 Any dips should be bought into. That's the word on Herakle Financial.
00:29:49 The stock at 30 percent at the day's high point, no profit taking emerging just yet.
00:29:54 From one beginner to one to another one, that's a big losers LTI Mindtree.
00:29:59 The stock is down over 10 percent trade. Its December quarter profit has remained flat, though revenues have witnessed a marginal uptick.
00:30:08 Tushar is joining us with the key takeaways. Tushar, these days, you know, with even a slight disappointment, stocks are getting thrashed.
00:30:16 And with a slight impression, if I might say, numbers, companies are getting rewarded.
00:30:24 I mean, look at Herakle up 30 percent on slightly better than expected numbers.
00:30:29 And LTI Mindtree, on the other hand, is on 10 percent. Yeah. So, Samina, we missed one particular metric.
00:30:34 That is the EBIT margin, which was down about 61 basis points quarter and quarter to 15.37 percent.
00:30:41 And the stock essentially is reacting to the fact that the CEO has told to us, as well as to a wider space,
00:30:49 that they are going to miss the margin guidance of 17 to 18 percent for FY24.
00:30:54 Also, the company and the management has not indicated anything on the lines of whether they are witnessing green shoots or anything.
00:31:02 So, if you take out the key highlights, so they have the highest ever order inflows at 1.5 billion dollars,
00:31:08 but the revenue has only seen a marginal uptick at 1.2 percent.
00:31:11 Essentially, that whole idea of deals to revenue conversion is not happening.
00:31:15 The management is not guiding on any green shoots and discretionary spending.
00:31:19 And discretionary spending make up a bunch or a chunk of what LTI Mindtree earns.
00:31:25 So, and again, the CEO is saying that we will miss the margin guidance of 17 to 18 percent.
00:31:30 The company is going to prioritize growth going forward.
00:31:33 So, any gains on the margin front cannot, should not be expected in the next two or three quarters.
00:31:40 So, that is what I think the stock is reacting to that commentary that is coming from the CEO.
00:31:45 Understood. Thank you so much for that, Tushar.
00:31:49 Let me quickly go across to, you know, both our analysts.
00:31:53 First off, let me, because Tushar has spoken on the fundamental side of things, let me go to Vineet.
00:31:58 Vineet, on the fundamentals, how does LTI now look, LTI Mindtree, I beg your pardon, now look for you?
00:32:06 See, you know, LTI Mindtree had got very premium valuations compared to the rest of the pack.
00:32:12 And with no growth and margins coming off, I think, you know, it's signaling that things are not,
00:32:20 things are more deteriorating rather than getting better.
00:32:23 And hence, we've seen these things come through.
00:32:27 And we believe that the valuations could contract even further going ahead.
00:32:31 So, remain underweight on this stock.
00:32:33 Right. Underweight LTI Mindtree, the stock is down 11% in trade.
00:32:38 A quick check on the Nifty before we slip into a break and continue our conversation with our guests
00:32:42 as we wrap up the last 30 minutes of today's trade.
00:32:44 21.451, that's the Nifty at struggling and really to get beyond these levels.
00:32:49 We'll take a break. We'll come back with a lot more on the other side. So, stay tuned.
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00:37:06 Welcome back. You're watching India Market Close here on NDTV Profit.
00:37:10 We have, as always, Agam standing by for a breakdown of the F&Qs for the day as we run down into close.
00:37:17 Agam, take it away.
00:37:18 Well, we have seen the benchmarks remain largely flattish after the weak opening that we saw
00:37:24 and the Nifty as well currently trending in the red.
00:37:28 While we have seen a recovery from days lows, well, it is trending downward by around 0.5% all the same.
00:37:34 We're still below the mark of 21,500.
00:37:37 Now, we haven't seen too much change in open interest, and when it comes to the Bank Nifty,
00:37:40 that's where perhaps the focus is a little more because we're seeing unwinding there as well,
00:37:45 even though we have seen the index come off by around 0.7%.
00:37:49 Remember, at one point in time, we had the Bank Nifty, which was in the green,
00:37:53 and at one point in time, we also had the Bank Nifty, which was down by as much as 1%.
00:37:57 So it's been a relatively volatile day of trade as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned,
00:38:01 and this is largely on account of HDFC Bank.
00:38:03 But when it comes to the Nifty in terms of open interest on options, as one might expect,
00:38:08 little more writing, in fact, a lot more writing, around 21,700, 21,800 calls,
00:38:14 and not too much to speak for as far as puts are concerned,
00:38:17 but naturally, we have seen the Nifty come off by quite an extent.
00:38:21 Now, let's move on and talk about the open interest distribution.
00:38:24 This is, of course, this week, and so for the next 20, 30-odd minutes,
00:38:29 we're not looking at a very wide range as far as the Nifty is concerned.
00:38:32 Most likely, we are going to see the Nifty close exactly where it is currently trending at.
00:38:38 That's around the mark of 21,500 odd levels.
00:38:41 Let's move on and talk about the other stocks then, and we do have shorts building up in LTIM,
00:38:46 ICICI Prudential and India Mart Intermesh, all on account of earnings.
00:38:50 Oracle Financial Services, on the other hand, a whopping 30% up move there,
00:38:55 and Apollo Tyres, of course, the other one, that is also looking at a 6% up move,
00:38:59 as we see a 21% increase in open interest. Longs there.
00:39:04 In terms of stocks which are seeing unwinding, let's pull that list up as well.
00:39:07 So, we do have Longs unwinding and L&T Tech, Innocent Bank, IEX, as well as Bella Soft,
00:39:14 and of course, Vedanta is the other one where we're looking at borrow short covering.
00:39:18 All eyes will remain on the benchmarks tomorrow as well,
00:39:21 and I am sure that a lot of participants will be hopeful that as we move into
00:39:26 the final trading day of this particularly volatile week,
00:39:31 we perhaps could expect a bout of short covering. That's what we're going to watch.
00:39:35 Short covering rally is what we're expecting. Polycap numbers are coming in.
00:39:38 Just to quickly take you through that counter, the stock is there.
00:39:42 Margins have come at 13.1 versus 13.9. That was the expectation.
00:39:46 The stock is up about a percent. Net profit is up 15.7% to come at 416.5 crores
00:39:53 versus 361 crores. The expectation was somewhere around 434,
00:39:58 so it's slightly lower than what the street was working with.
00:40:02 Revenues as well coming at 4,340 crores versus 4,470 crores.
00:40:07 Slightly disappointing in terms of what we're seeing and the stock is reacting to those numbers.
00:40:12 It was trading about a percent and a half higher just a few minutes ago
00:40:16 before these numbers came through. For now, the stock is down 0.5%,
00:40:20 numbers below what the street was working with. Gaurav, very quickly, do you track Polycap?
00:40:26 Well, yes, and we had advised our clients as well, not fresh entry,
00:40:30 but if you look at the weekly and the monthly charts,
00:40:32 on monthly charts it has bounced back from one of the very key components of an indicator known as Ichimoku.
00:40:38 The Kijun Parichi is the heart of Ichimoku. It bounced exactly from those levels.
00:40:42 Also, it's near the 89 weekly exponential money averaging.
00:40:46 So in my opinion, till 3850 sustained, we were hopeful of a bounce back,
00:40:50 which we have seen 10-12% bounce from low levels.
00:40:53 And currently, it is trying to fill the gap. And if it gives a close above 4,450-4,500,
00:40:58 then it will try to fill the gap towards 4850-4800 levels.
00:41:02 So right now, the trend remains positive. I would not recommend adding fresh here
00:41:06 because the supports will be lower. But suddenly, if you again get the short towards 4,000-4,100,
00:41:11 one can look at it from a long-term perspective.
00:41:13 Right. Vineet, your quick views on the first set of numbers that have come through on Polycab.
00:41:19 Also, we have not had a chance to interact with regard to Polycab's latest tax issues
00:41:25 that have also cropped up, possible corporate governance issues which have been spoken about.
00:41:29 What's your viewpoint with regard to Polycab from a fundamental standpoint?
00:41:33 So, the numbers which have come out in Polycab as we speak,
00:41:41 they are suggesting that the tax issues where there was a thousand crore kind of underreporting of the revenues
00:41:52 is actually being pulled out from the company.
00:41:56 So, because of that, we are seeing a flattish kind of growth coming in.
00:42:01 It's on the sequential side and that can have a little bit of repercussion on the stock going back.
00:42:11 Sure. So, those are the views coming in with regard to where Polycab is concerned.
00:42:16 The other one which is in focus is ICICI Pro. Again, numbers is what's keeping this one in focus as well.
00:42:22 We've seen a whole host of stocks buzzing largely on the back of news.
00:42:29 That's what's really keeping markets going at least today.
00:42:32 So, ICICI Pro down 6%, value of new business fell 29% and the profit jumped 2% during the quarter.
00:42:40 Monal is here with the fine print of this one. Monal, break it down for us. This one's totally beaten.
00:42:47 Sure, Harsh. Yes, I think the main problem here that is happening is from what we can pick up from the budget.
00:42:55 Non-part policies, the above 5 lakh ones. So, that is what is creating the pressure and the entire year that is what was expected.
00:43:03 But now what was to be seen is how companies are navigating this and showing growth prospects in other areas.
00:43:09 Now, V&V margins are down 11% from what it was in Q3 last year, which is a huge, huge downfall.
00:43:16 I mean, from 33% levels, we're down to 23%, like 33 point something.
00:43:21 So, this is majorly because of a higher share of ULIPs. Usually, ULIPs and participating products have a lower profit margin.
00:43:31 And that is what is creating this softness in the V&V.
00:43:35 And a lot of brokerages are also seeing that in terms of the growth prospects, they're seeing an issue here in terms of future growth.
00:43:43 Also, they're saying that the non-ICICI bank channels have not been giving the kind of result that should be seen in terms of growth and pushing of policies.
00:43:53 A lot of these issues are plaguing the stock and it's clearly evident from how it's beaten down today.
00:43:58 Numbers, not so great. Cost ratios have also gone up. So, they've gone up by around 5%.
00:44:06 So, a lot of things that are plaguing the stock and pulling it down. We have to watch of what is going to happen next.
00:44:12 Sure. Thank you so much for that perspective, Monal. Clearly, that V&V margin shrink not being taken too well by the street.
00:44:19 Vineet, let me go first to you. Your views with regard to what this means for ICICI approved.
00:44:27 How do you see the larger life insurance valuation picture because you are seeing some which are more expensive than IAPRU.
00:44:35 But this large margin shrink, is it a real concern in your view?
00:44:40 Vineet, that one's for you.
00:44:45 Yeah. So, I think the erosion in the margins is very, very concerning.
00:44:51 And that is going to, I think, lead to further... it's showing reluctance on the market. Also, growth is not there.
00:44:58 So, I think that these two are causing a kind of a... creating a de-operating leverage on the downside.
00:45:06 And this could possibly see the stock lose much more value going ahead.
00:45:12 So, Gaurav, do you track IAPRU on charts? What's really jumping out today from everything that's happening?
00:45:22 If you look at the charts, it's bounced back from a crucial support area. It has been trading in a rising channel pattern.
00:45:29 We had earlier given a shot. We moved around 510-515. And today we recommend a buy at 470 levels.
00:45:36 So, for me, it can move towards the median line, which is placed at 510-515.
00:45:41 And if somebody wants to buy and declines towards 475, can be bought into keeping a stop at 462-463, target of 515.
00:45:49 Right. And Gaurav, very, very quickly, if we can have your BTST ideas.
00:45:57 Yeah. So, the first recommendation would be a buy on FTC. We have seen good breakouts.
00:46:02 It's a volume-based breakout. We have seen a basing pattern formation and then the breakout has happened.
00:46:07 One can keep a stop loss of 425, target of 465.
00:46:10 Second, we buy on BPCL where we have seen a bullish flag breakout continuation pattern.
00:46:15 Keeping a stop loss of 460, one can buy BPCL for target of 500.
00:46:19 Got it. Okay. Thank you so much for that, Gaurav. We'll let you go on that note.
00:46:24 But, you know, we shift focus to IndusInd Bank. That one's expected to report numbers.
00:46:31 Mimansa is joining us with what we all need to look out for from the fine print that will come out later today evening as well as from the commentary.
00:46:39 Mimansa, what's the sense like?
00:46:42 Hi, Harsh. So, IndusInd Bank is set to announce its Q3 earnings today where it is expected to report a 16% rise in net profit on year-on-year basis.
00:46:51 So, this is because of a continued momentum in accelerated growth in its core high-yield loan segment which is vehicle finance portfolio for IndusInd Bank.
00:47:00 Apart from that, the net interest income is expected to rise by around 15% which is slightly lower than what was reported in the previous quarter which was 18%.
00:47:10 The NIM is likely to remain stable at 4.3% on quarter-on-quarter basis while the CASA ratio is expected to decline by 90 basis points to 38.5%
00:47:22 which indicates that the deposit growth has been mainly driven by term deposits.
00:47:26 On asset quality, analysts are expecting stable NPAs and provisions will continue to decline due to lower slippages.
00:47:33 Both microfinance loans and vehicle finance portfolio for IndusInd Bank are showing negligible risk as per the analysts' estimates.
00:47:41 Now, while loan growth is seen at solid 20%, the key focus for IndusInd Bank will be the cost of funds and whether the bank is able to sustain its loan growth at current levels.
00:47:52 Deposit growth is also seen at around 13% on year-on-year basis.
00:47:57 Non-interest income would be subdued by lower treasury income and other fee income.
00:48:03 So, all of these factors may result in about 2% year-on-year rise in its pre-provision operating profit along with higher operating cost led by recovery in business momentum.
00:48:15 Vinit, IndusInd Bank stock is seeing a cut of 2%. At the back of what we have seen with HDFC Bank numbers as well, what expectations do you have from IndusInd Bank?
00:48:32 Have you gone back to the drawing room and revised those expectations?
00:48:36 So, apart from cost inputs that are going up and slight contraction of margins, I don't think there will be too much of negatives to build into IndusInd Bank.
00:48:48 And we believe that this bank can continue to perform as it has been in the previous quarters albeit with a slightly lower trajectory.
00:48:57 Vinit, I just wanted your views with regard to pure valuations. You said you prefer Axis currently over the likes of HDFC.
00:49:13 Where does IndusInd really stack up for you with regard to valuations?
00:49:16 Because it's more reasonably valued, it's given a longer trajectory when it comes to its growth. The growth numbers at least in terms of their growth rates, they've given a better guidance.
00:49:29 And asset quality looks good as well.
00:49:32 Yeah, so you know, Axis and IndusInd Bank would be quite comparable in the sense that IndusInd Bank has got a tad better metrics on all aspects, be it NIMS, be it ROEs, ROAs.
00:49:48 It has generally been performing well. And being a smaller bank, it is more conducive to better growth prospects.
00:49:56 And hence, we think that both Axis and IndusInd Bank are at the top of the pecking order.
00:50:04 Sure. So, Axis and IndusInd are pretty much there on top of your list. Understood.
00:50:11 We also have the likes of an HUL, which will disclose numbers. And we are expecting a flattish sort of set when it comes to the top line of HUL, just 2% odd growth expected.
00:50:23 EBITDA also expected to be quite soft. Margins expected to be sub 24%. And PAT is expected to grow roughly 8% year over year.
00:50:32 Now, of course, from the management commentary, we will get patterns, especially with regard to where rural consumption lies, where or when will volume led growth start coming through.
00:50:43 Also, how the top line is expected to evolve along with that growth and how competition is really playing its part with regard to HULs numbers.
00:50:55 With regard to pricing as well, one will have to try and understand as to how pricing is evolving in this market.
00:51:02 But very quickly, if I can go back to you, Vineet, your sense with regard to HUL, what can we expect or what are your expectations from this particular set of companies, FMCG, rural play of sorts?
00:51:18 And how you're looking at valuations in this space, because it's always been richly valued.
00:51:25 Yeah, so, you know, our expectation is that the numbers could be better than what the street is expecting, given that we are seeing an uptick in rural consumption.
00:51:35 And hence, we expect better numbers to come in. As far as valuations are concerned, we are not unduly worried.
00:51:42 These valuations can sustain because what we've seen is very pathetic, you know, like an insensitive performance by HUL over the last few quarters.
00:51:52 And hence, these valuations are more or less reflective of the damp sentiment that is prevailing.
00:51:58 So we do expect a kind of a surprise out here. And that would be very encouraging.
00:52:04 And what about something like the likes of an Asian Paints? Disclosed numbers yesterday, you know, with regard to top line was a bit of a disappointment, but they've done fairly well where operational metrics are concerned.
00:52:17 Stock obviously beaten. Your sense of how you look at an Asian Paints? Again, very similar to HUL, the play.
00:52:25 Yeah, so again, Asian Paints is in another category where, you know, there's a competitive intensity is kind of coming up.
00:52:35 And hence, we are seeing the stock remain subdued. Growth is a challenge given that, you know, the new incumbents which are there, you know, especially from the ranks of Grasem and JSW,
00:52:47 you know, they are going to try to push the pedal in terms of penetration pricing to gain market share.
00:52:52 So for a few quarters, the growth can be a little bit of an issue out here.
00:52:56 But definitely, it's a stock that, you know, over a period of time will tend to perform better.
00:53:04 However, given at this point in time, I think that, you know, it's a more of a hold situation rather than, you know, getting a beat or bullish on the stock as such.
00:53:16 Sure, and Vineet, your top sector for 2024, if I were to request you to make a bet, what would that be?
00:53:26 We have the Nifty, I mean, we're now off the highs, but nonetheless, quite close to the highs rather than the lows of the 52 week.
00:53:36 I think infrastructure and autos are two-wheeler autos should continue to perform well.
00:53:44 So these are two segments where we are discerningly bullish on.
00:53:48 Right, and this is despite the run that two-wheeler auto has had the likes of a Hero, Bajaj, TVS, all of which are now trading very close to their 52 week highs.
00:53:58 So what we are seeing is, you know, if you see the EB space, you know, the traditional incumbents were no where present.
00:54:08 And over the last couple of months, if you track the data, you will find that they've already gained about 20% market share each.
00:54:14 So, you know, clearly they are straddling not only the EB segment, but the two-wheeler segment as well, the traditional two-wheelers, the ICE vehicles.
00:54:24 And what we are noticing is that, you know, this segment had seen a kind of a slowdown since COVID and that slowdown has been extended.
00:54:36 But now the cycle is just picking up. And we believe that this cycle has got legs for another two, two and a half years to play out.
00:54:44 Sure. So you're expecting rural to start flipping. When, in your view, will that start reflecting?
00:54:52 It's already started in terms of two-wheelers, it's already started.
00:54:56 Sure. But what about the FMCG and...
00:55:00 So that's what I told you, as I said that HUL will see, you know, it is my expectation that HUL could see a better language, body language in terms of outlook that they give when the results come out soon.
00:55:16 Right. Yeah. Okay. Got it. So point taken. Let me also take it or try and take your views with regard to pharma.
00:55:25 We've probably not covered that space in this segment at the moment.
00:55:31 Vineet, how are you viewing pharma? What are your expectations? Because all those numbers expected later this month.
00:55:38 So I think they will be very encouraging numbers. Margins should play out. We'll have decent volume growth.
00:55:45 And generally, we will see compounding stories play out. I am of the view that Glaxo pharmaceuticals can be an outlier in the segment.
00:55:57 Understood. And, Vineet, the big one, before I go to Samina for close, the big one will be Reliance Industries tomorrow.
00:56:06 We've seen HDFC getting badgered and taking the indices lower. Where does Reliance go in your view? Do you think it will be a solid set?
00:56:15 I believe that the numbers should be encouraging and that should help shore up the market sentiment towards a significant extent going ahead.
00:56:25 Sure. Perfect. So that's where we are, where Vineet's views are concerned. And Vineet, last take with regard to the Nifty 50 itself, your target for 2024?
00:56:39 We have an election year. So I believe that till March, we will be in a kind of a range bound market.
00:56:48 But beyond March, we expect the markets to pick up steam again and start rallying, provided the global scenario doesn't really detunate.
00:56:59 So if the global scenario stays as it is, then I think we are headed much, much higher from here. Very bullish on the Indian markets.
00:57:07 Growth story is still to play out. And however, we have a lot of tax selling that happens in the months of February and March.
00:57:15 So we could be a little bit subdued. Market expectations on the budget delivery, something is not well placed in my opinion,
00:57:24 because of the vote on account budget and we could see a lot of populist measures creep in.
00:57:28 So that's how I sum up the way the market trend should play out.
00:57:33 Absolutely, Vineet. We've kind of covered quite a few bases today. It's been a pleasure speaking with you and having you on our show, giving us all those views.
00:57:41 We let you go on that note. With markets, let's take a quick check. Half a percent lower on the Nifty.
00:57:49 We've gone or rather four tenths of a percent lower on the Nifty.
00:57:52 So we've inched a little bit higher than where we started at least this show at.
00:57:58 And overall, you are seeing the broader markets too in a bit of a recovery mode.
00:58:03 You are seeing the Nifty mid cap absolutely flat. So that's clearly recovered.
00:58:08 The Nifty small cap also just about six basis points in the minus. So absolutely flat there as well.
00:58:15 But Nifty Bank continues to be the clear drag and financials. Nifty Fin down a percent.
00:58:20 Those two are the clear drag on indices, because outside of that, you're seeing the Nifty Metal, Nifty Media and Nifty IT with around half a percent odd of losses.
00:58:30 But the main losses are currently being carried by financials. Samina.
00:58:34 Yeah, not very good looking in terms of the picture. Exactly what we saw yesterday.
00:58:39 The only difference being that the losses today are probably or not as bad as what we saw yesterday.
00:58:44 But it's a third afternoon. The markets are seeing weakness.
00:58:48 Well, we've not managed to do much of a recovery on the Nifty in the last few minutes of trade.
00:58:54 The Nifty is going home with cuts. We are closing below 21,500.
00:58:59 21,477 is what it looks like the Nifty could be closing to. The Sensex is well down to 70 points.
00:59:05 Bank Nifty had a drop 320 points down. Well, the good news is we're off the day's low point on Bank Nifty at least.
00:59:12 45,750 is where we'd be closing today's trade at. Seven tenths of a percent cut on Bank Nifty.
00:59:18 Well, a quick check of how the rest of the markets played out.
00:59:21 Broader markets were indicating some outperformance on the benchmark, despite the fact that there have been valuation concerns for the broader market
00:59:28 and the expectation was that if the selling had to come in, it would come from the broader market space.
00:59:32 But that's not really how it's playing out. The small cap index going home flat.
00:59:35 Nifty mid cap also recouping most of its losses from the day to go home with sort of no gains or no losses.
00:59:41 Flat is what we have the Nifty mid cap at. Well, let's take a check of how the Nifty stocks have done in today's day of trade.
00:59:48 Your top loser is LTIM. Disappointing numbers, management not being very committal, margins have come off and the stock is getting punished for that.
00:59:57 Investors disappointed and so are traders. The stock down 11 percent in today's trade.
01:00:02 HDFC Bank after 9 percent sell off yesterday, the stock sold off another 3 odd percent today.
01:00:07 It'd be interesting to see how the ADR plays out when the US markets open up later on in the night.
01:00:12 Expectation of some consolidation at this stage is what we'd be probably expecting.
01:00:17 Titan 2.5 percent lower, the stock not doing too well. Power Grid as well seeing a cut.
01:00:22 Asian paints on back of numbers seeing a sell off. Aisha Indus Ind on back of earnings seeing some weakness.
01:00:28 On the gaining side, you have Sun Pharma on back of Taro. Techminds are not doing too badly.
01:00:33 Some of the auto names are not doing bad either. RIL and Ultratech ahead of numbers is going home marginally higher.
01:00:38 All in all, a weak day of trade. Day 2 of a huge cut on the index.
01:00:43 Not like the 2 percent cut yesterday, but going home sub 21,500 on the Nifty.
01:00:48 There will be a little more uncertainties we come into trade tomorrow.
01:00:52 The wicks as well will be an indicator of what the street is thinking.
01:00:55 With that, it's a wrap on India market close with a lot more Davos activity in action that we are tracking from here up next.
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01:05:03 It's not often that you find a large real estate entity out of India at the cold shores of Davos.
01:05:10 Okay, maybe not shores, but the cold hills of Davos. And that's what we have today.
01:05:15 I'll be speaking to Mr. Manoj Mehta of RMZ Corporation on their view of what they are gauging the interest in India right here at the West.
01:05:22 And how is it that they envisage the movement of the sector in India over the course of the remainder of this decade?
01:05:30 Mr. Mehta, great having you. Thanks for taking the time out.
01:05:32 Thank you, Neeraj.
01:05:33 In some sense, you would be a happy corporation because everybody, everybody unanimously believes that we're in the midst or at the beginning of a longer term real estate cycle, which has come after a really long time.
01:05:49 Is that your belief as well?
01:05:50 Absolutely. I think the first belief is India.
01:05:53 Right.
01:05:54 I think we're, you know, we're all benefiting from the leadership in India today. Right. I mean, it's, it's thanks to the leadership that's put India out in the map. And I think it's now our fiduciary responsibility.