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00:00 Amitabh Tiwari joins us this morning, political strategist.
00:02 We also have Muralidhar Swaminathan in the studios
00:05 on a very, very exciting morning.
00:07 We're hoping some relief after yesterday.
00:10 Absolutely.
00:10 By the way, first monsoon showers have hit in Mumbai.
00:13 Absolutely.
00:14 So I always see that as a good omen.
00:16 And hopefully, market will see some of that barrage as well.
00:21 Amitabh Tiwari is joining us.
00:23 Amitabh, the dust has sort of settled.
00:25 We have the final numbers.
00:27 Some seats were very, very close.
00:29 So I think we've seen the update late last night.
00:32 We've heard from Prime Minister Modi.
00:34 We heard from Rahul Gandhi yesterday.
00:36 Now, today, would it be fair to say the following?
00:40 We're having an NDA, as was expected by the street.
00:44 We're having a Modi 3.0, which was expected by the street.
00:47 Perhaps you will see more balance
00:49 in the composition of the NDA than we saw previously.
00:55 Yeah, I think two things are very important
00:58 when we discuss this.
00:59 One is stability, and one is continuity.
01:03 The first thing is that the NDA comes back to power,
01:07 but BJP has more than 80% of the seats and vote share.
01:13 The second aspect which brings stability
01:15 is the fact that this is a pre-poll alliance and not
01:17 a post-poll alliance.
01:20 And the third and the most important factor
01:21 is that it has at the helm Prime Minister Modi, who
01:25 has been--
01:26 I think we lost his feed.
01:33 I think we lost his feed.
01:34 We'll try and get Amitabh back.
01:36 But, Modi, very interesting points there.
01:41 That because of a high benchmark and expectations,
01:46 the street was racket.
01:48 But at the end of the day, you're the single largest party.
01:50 That's the BJP.
01:51 You have more seats than all of the India Alliance combined.
01:55 And you will get the first invitation
01:57 to form the government.
01:59 And you have a pre-poll alliance.
02:01 Absolutely.
02:02 So, no, so markets overreact sometimes.
02:05 But markets also know what's coming.
02:08 So if you look at the five or six days
02:10 when there was large selling before the RBI announced
02:13 its bonanza, the markets could feel the jitters on the ground.
02:18 They knew that something was amiss.
02:19 They knew that the targets were lofty and ambitious, which
02:23 is why you saw that first burst of selling.
02:25 Then again, the markets recovered.
02:27 And then the exit polls got it completely, completely wrong.
02:31 Again, markets overreacted to exit polls.
02:34 So that swing, the wild swing, is
02:37 what the markets are up to.
02:38 That's purely because of trading positions.
02:42 Now, if you ask me what retail investors do--
02:46 let me focus on retail investors and not
02:49 focus on what the traders are doing--
02:51 the traders will profit.
02:53 They'll book loss.
02:54 They will try to keep navigating between hope and despair
03:00 to make that short-term intraday money in the F&O market.
03:05 Now, this is an excellent opportunity
03:08 for any retail investor.
03:11 It's a no-brainer.
03:12 You just go out and look at the list.
03:14 You are getting an SBI, the Adani ports, you name it.
03:18 Or any of your banks, M&M, auto stocks.
03:24 All these days, people were saying
03:26 that there is this FOMO factor.
03:28 You know that FOMO factor is gone?
03:30 There's a grand opportunity that has come in front
03:33 of the retail investors.
03:35 The best thing for a retail investor
03:36 is to just simply go out and start buying.
03:39 And start buying not at one go, because you will see a lot of--
03:43 like, as you said, the next few months,
03:46 till there is very clear clarity and clear support coming
03:51 from the NDA constituents, especially
03:54 TDP and Nitish Kumar.
03:57 I think it's a 24-hour game, because there is an NDA meeting
04:01 today, this evening.
04:03 There is also an India alliance meeting today.
04:06 I think by tomorrow day, after the dust should clear,
04:08 once that invitation comes from the president of India,
04:12 it's done.
04:13 No, that's the government formation.
04:15 There is no doubt about the government formation.
04:17 That process will take place, as the prime minister articulated
04:19 yesterday.
04:20 That's very clear.
04:21 The government formation, PM coming back to power,
04:24 I think there is no doubt in my mind about that part.
04:27 What is the doubt?
04:28 What is the market and brokerages
04:29 are concerned about that, look, your dependency,
04:32 or what I call the dependency ratio,
04:34 is on two parties, TDP and the other one.
04:37 Now, that is a short-term problem.
04:39 That will also settle down.
04:40 Having said that, will this really
04:43 change the game fundamentally, or will the fundamentals change?
04:47 In my opinion, no.
04:48 The fundamentals are not going to change.
04:50 It's not going to alter your economy.
04:52 Policy direction emphasis might be a little more here
04:55 and a little more there to accommodate the requirements
04:58 of the alliance partners.
05:00 If that is the case, would you get a better opportunity
05:03 to buy?
05:05 So investors should simply go out and buy.
05:08 Buy mutual funds.
05:09 Buy ETFs.
05:11 They are all available.
05:13 Today, yesterday, if somebody had to invest in mutual funds,
05:17 the best route would have been ETFs.
05:19 So how ETFs are easily available.
05:23 Or for that matter, as you said, it's raining outside.
05:27 So if the rains have reached Mumbai,
05:28 the rains have also reached the market,
05:30 and the monsoons are better.
05:31 So therefore, FMCV--
05:32 I was looking at this Phillips Capital note
05:34 about the big events to now watch.
05:36 June 7th becomes important, the RBI monetary policy statement.
05:42 Then the budget.
05:43 You have, again, results season will
05:45 start from second week of July.
05:47 So markets will get over this and get on
05:49 with the business of every day.
05:50 So there will be ups and downs.
05:52 So for the next one month, you need
05:53 to continuously keep buying.
05:56 There are options to do SIPs on a daily basis.
05:58 If you do SIPs on a daily basis, I
06:01 think the next one month or till the run up to the budget,
06:05 there is a fantastic opportunity.
06:06 Now, we don't know who the finance minister would be,
06:08 what would be the kind of demand coming from the alliance
06:11 partners.
06:13 So therefore, those questions will be there.
06:15 They will provide volatility.
06:17 And for a retail investor, the best thing to do is make money,
06:20 is buying volatility.
06:21 Don't trade.
06:22 Invest, accumulate, average, and you
06:24 will create wealth in the long term.
06:25 So I think that's the big one.
06:27 Hitherto, it didn't quite matter who were the ministers,
06:30 because you had a very strong PMO,
06:32 and they had numbers on their own.
06:33 Amitabh Tiwari is back on.
06:35 We've got your line fixed.
06:37 Amitabh, now that's going to be the next one, right?
06:39 What this government formation looks like,
06:42 what is the quote unquote "pound of flesh"
06:45 the BJP has to pay to its allies to stick around?
06:50 Of course, as we were discussing stability,
06:52 so BJP has 80% of MPs and vote share.
06:57 This is a pre-poll alliance, and it
06:58 has at the helm Prime Minister Modi,
07:01 who has been chief minister and prime minister
07:03 for almost 25 years now.
07:05 So now, as you mentioned, some of the important or key
07:08 portfolios could go to the alliance partners,
07:11 because they also make up almost 20%
07:14 of the strength of the NDA.
07:15 That's fairly natural.
07:17 What is going to happen is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi
07:20 is a fairly flexible, adaptable, and a practical politician.
07:24 And he has built a great camaraderie and relationship
07:28 with global leaders across the world.
07:32 Now, I think he'll have to invest some more time
07:34 and build similar sort of camaraderie,
07:36 or revive the camaraderie he used to have with Nitish Kumar
07:41 and Chandra Babu Naidu.
07:42 They have been long-term partners of BJP and NDA.
07:46 However, they have been coming in and out of the alliance
07:51 for some time now.
07:53 Having said that, Chandra Babu Naidu also prides himself,
07:58 or proudly called himself the CEO of Andhra Pradesh.
08:02 So he is credited with bringing the IT revolution
08:06 to Hyderabad and the region where he was the Chief Minister.
08:09 Whereas, Nitish Kumar brings with him
08:13 the social justice aspect also.
08:15 He is the only Chief Minister to have conducted a caste census
08:20 and made the report public.
08:22 So what we are likely to see is that
08:24 the focus will be on economic growth with creation of jobs.
08:31 However, there will be a welfare element
08:34 which will come into the aspect of policymaking
08:39 of this government.
08:40 - Amitabh, I have a question.
08:43 You know, Chandra Babu Naidu,
08:46 I think somewhere in the mid-90s,
08:48 when he was the Chief Minister,
08:50 you know, he introduced a lot of technology
08:53 to run administration.
08:55 I remember, you know, he distributed iPads and notepads
08:59 to all the district collectors.
09:01 He would have a conference call in the morning.
09:03 Every day, he would have a weekly review.
09:06 He's a great administrator.
09:07 So he's going to bring in a lot of administrative
09:11 and implementation skills that is required
09:14 at the ground level.
09:15 And what do you think of Chandra Babu's skills
09:19 as a great administrator?
09:21 - Well, of course, he has also years of experience.
09:26 And he has brought the IT revolution to Hyderabad
09:31 and the development of Hyderabad
09:33 would be credited to him as well.
09:35 And when he was Chief Minister,
09:36 he was known for implementing IT.
09:39 And at that point, it was not called AI,
09:42 but IT and AI stuff at that point of time
09:44 during his tenure as Chief Minister.
09:47 And the good part is that BJP has been a lucky charm
09:50 for Chandra Babu Naidu.
09:52 So whenever Chandra Babu Naidu has allied with the BJP,
09:55 he has formed the government.
09:56 So these things also matter a lot in politics.
09:59 And he does bring that kind of skill sets
10:02 and knowledge and experience, as you've mentioned,
10:05 to the table and also could play a key role
10:08 in providing inputs on economic policy
10:12 towards IT creation of jobs, as well as AI,
10:15 which is now an in thing in the market.
10:18 - Right.
10:21 One more question.
10:22 Do you think the finance ministry portfolio,
10:26 who is likely to get?
10:29 Will it be with the BJP
10:30 or will it be with the NDA partners?
10:32 What's your guess?
10:33 - No, I think the finance, the home,
10:38 external affairs, defense,
10:39 I think these are likely to be with the BJP.
10:43 The top four are likely to be with the BJP.
10:47 I don't think there will be any compromise
10:50 on the top four portfolios.
10:51 Apart from that, of course,
10:53 some of them would have to be given to the allies,
10:55 which is Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu.
10:58 - Amitabh, the one question,
11:00 and you know why the street was scared
11:02 about the whole coalition politics
11:04 is because coalition partners often hop.
11:07 From what you have heard yesterday
11:09 from statements in public from Nitish Kumar's party
11:12 and from Chandrababu Naidu's party,
11:14 do you see any chances of that happening?
11:16 Or is that now something which is off the table?
11:18 Because the India leaders are talking
11:22 about more people joining them.
11:24 - No, I think, see, this is a pre-poll alliance,
11:26 and both our chief ministers,
11:29 or Chandrababu Naidu is going to be sworn in
11:33 as a chief minister.
11:33 So Nitish Kumar, of course, needs BJP in Bihar
11:38 to continue his government.
11:40 And so does Chandrababu Naidu.
11:43 However, the numbers of BJP are fairly small there.
11:46 So since this is a pre-poll alliance,
11:48 I think these two leaders are likely to stay
11:51 with the BJP as far as we can see with the statements.
11:56 However, this is a coalition era.
12:00 There will be pulls and pressures,
12:02 and there will be a man-to-man marking.
12:03 We've seen in the past, I mean,
12:05 and even yesterday Amit Shah called Manji,
12:09 who is an MP and represents one party.
12:13 So there will be man-to-man marking, of course,
12:15 because both the sides are trying
12:17 to guard their respective votes.
12:21 I don't see these two making any such decision
12:25 in the immediate term.
12:26 I mean, long-term we'll have to see
12:28 how this coalition pans out.
12:31 - All right, thank you so much for that.
12:32 Amitabh, great to speak with you as always.
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