Kickoff 2024: College Football Begins with FSU vs Georgia Tech
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00:00You have made it. Tomorrow is the start of the 2024 college
00:09football season. It's why the shirt reads college football
00:13period. It is not the greatest week zero slate we have ever
00:17seen in the history of CFP. It's not even the best week zero
00:21slate we have seen in the last few seasons but we do have an
00:25ACC affair with a preseason top ten team to kick off the
00:292024 campaign tomorrow in Ireland. It's the Dublin debut
00:35of tenth ranked Florida State and Georgia Tech in ACC clash
00:39to begin 2024 in college football that from a betting
00:43perspective has been a fascinating case study in the
00:47last week and a half. Florida State top ten team in the
00:50preseason. Perfect undefeated and an ACC champ entering the
00:55bowl season last year. The Seminoles opened as a 13 and a
01:00half point favorite. Donnie, there's no favorite by double
01:03digits. Expected to win the game outright in a large way
01:06over the Yellow Jackets but 13 and a half about 10 days ago
01:11has now become closer to single digits than to touchdowns. Only
01:15a ten and a half point spread. Total 55 and a half. Where do
01:19you fall on the eve of the 2024 college football season?
01:23Yeah, we talked about it in the last week when that line was
01:26eleven and a half and I did like Georgia Tech because
01:28there's a lot of, you know, we don't know what's going to take
01:30place. Breaking a new quarterback for Florida State.
01:32You're not exactly playing at Doe Campbell either. You are
01:35across seas here so neither one of these teams is used to
01:37playing in that environment. Maybe it'll be a little bit
01:39sloppy right off the top but also what you can't deny.
01:42Sometimes we're looking at like professional handicappers,
01:45right? We say, okay, the season's just starting. The
01:47public usually has an eye on the game going, ooh, which way
01:51do we want to go here? And as Ben just pointed out, this
01:53line was hovering around two touchdowns here. Let's just
01:55call it thirteen and a half. Now, this line sits at ten and
01:58a half at the FanDuel Sportsbook. If you go right to
02:01the FanDuel Sportsbook and click on statistics for this
02:03game, betting statistics that is, 72% of the tickets coming
02:07in on Florida State. Sixty-nine percent of the money coming in
02:10on Florida State. Thirteen and a half down to ten and a half.
02:13That means some sharp action is coming in the opposite way on
02:16Georgia Tech. Does it always win? No, it doesn't but I
02:18always like these false flag type game saying, everybody you
02:21talk to typically likes Florida State and then you say, well,
02:24why wouldn't that line be going from thirteen and a half and to
02:26seventeen and a half, not thirteen and a half back down
02:29to ten and a half. It's just those little betting
02:31intricacies that we see early in the season that you pay
02:33attention to but a lot of people like Florida State but
02:36can't answer for why that line is actually dropping here.
02:39Yeah, it is really interesting. We shared some insights from
02:42those around the sports betting landscape earlier in the week
02:45that a lot of the sharp money, that big market moving money is
02:50on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets who enter year number
02:53two fully under Brent Key who played his college football on
02:57the defensive side of the ball there in Atlanta, Georgia for
03:01Georgia Tech. Interim head coach in 2022 after Jeff Collins was
03:05dismissed, led Georgia Tech to a four and four season in his
03:10tenure. Seven and six last year with a ball victory and maybe
03:13most important DRS for a big two touchdown spread in a
03:17conference game. Georgia Tech was seven and two against the
03:20number as an underdog a season ago. Florida State favored 11
03:24times last year, six and five against the spread. To Donnie's
03:28point, DJ is now the quarterback for FSU, a guy with
03:34plenty of college football and ACC experience, 48 games in his
03:38career, a thirty and ten record as a starter. Last season in
03:44Corvallis at Oregon State, the first three years of his tenure
03:48at Clemson. Donnie, when you look at some of the props that
03:51are available, one of the other reasons that I think a lot of
03:54people are looking at Georgia Tech is the consistency of a
03:58promising young head coach in Brent Key and the quarterback
04:01of Haynes King being back for a second straight season. 187 and
04:05a hook is his passing yards prop. FSU, six best passing
04:09defense in the country a season ago and they're two all ACC
04:13performers in the secondary to return this year but it's also
04:18his legs. Haynes King over 700 yards on the ground last year,
04:22ten rushing scores, his rushing yards prop, 42 and a half
04:26against Florida State's defense. Yeah, and the tough
04:29part about that too is we always have to remind people. If
04:31you are on the FanDuel Sportsbook looking at players
04:33rushing, you're like, boy, Ben just told you, this guy's an
04:35unbelievable runner. Forty-two and a half, that's really easy.
04:37Well, understand this. Florida State's got some weapons in
04:39that front seven and they put pressure on you which means you
04:42take sacks, that goes away from your rushing yards. So,
04:44theoretically, you can have a hundred yards on the ground as
04:47a quarterback and say, Ben, why did he wind up with 62 yards?
04:51Well, cuz that's what happens here in college football. I
04:53don't know why they've ever not done away with that rule. Just
04:55one of those quirks they have. Same thing with DJU out there.
04:57Twenty and a half rushing yards here. Oh, that should be
05:00easier but also take it to account for the favorites. You
05:02might take knees at the end of the football game but also if
05:04you take sacks, you will lose that but most of these are
05:07correlated. If you think Georgia Tech is gonna hang
05:09around and win this game, Haynes King is probably gonna
05:11be a big deal there throwing the football for close to 200
05:13yards and or rushing. If he goes under those two totals, I
05:17doubt the fact that they're gonna be hanging around this
05:19football game within single digits here but also, it is the
05:22first game. You're taking a lot of leaps here. As Ben pointed
05:24out, sometimes just having that quarterback in the system back
05:28for another year after having some success here, you can look
05:31to take that leap into the second year and the question
05:33marks more from Florida State side. Do we know Florida State
05:36has better football players? Of course, we do but it's just a
05:38matter of that game against Georgia. A lot of talent left
05:41the building breaking in a new quarterback overseas. Sometimes
05:45that's a little bit more to deal with here and that line,
05:47we know Ben, it wouldn't be ten and a half. It was a dope
05:50Campbell. It will be well over two touchdowns as a favorite
05:52for Florida State. It's a unique spot of course for both
05:56Florida State and Georgia Tech to start a season in week zero
06:01all the way over in Ireland. FSU of course has a lot of new
06:06faces. Not just their quarterback and DJ, but also
06:10transfer running back from Alabama. His name is Royale
06:13Williams. We'll talk a couple of more props on the other side
06:16of the break but just so you get the understanding of where
06:19the knolls are entering this year. Of course, Florida State
06:22was one of the stories of 2023. One of fifteen undefeated
06:27power five conference champions in the history, the ten-year
06:30history of the college football playoff and the only
06:33one of those fifteen to be left out of the CFP. They are the
06:38favorites to win the ACC this year. A plus 320 price. It is
06:42considered a three-team race between FSU, Clemson, and
06:46Miami and a plus 160 number for the knolls to reach the
06:51college football playoff. Nine and a half to win total. The
06:54under has the juice. Donnie, if you had to pick the ACC
06:57champion entering 2024, is it this Florida State team or is
07:01it another team from the Sunshine State? I would yeah,
07:04I would probably say, look, Florida State is too easy for
07:07me to attack right now. A lot of changes. So, Clemson, I
07:09think is going to be in the mix and certainly the Miami
07:11Hurricanes with that new backfield, if you will,
07:13quarterback and running back. I think it's that year where
07:16Miami actually can play a factor in the ACC. About time,
07:19Miami. More from the week zero slate up next. Live right here
07:25on the early line on a football Friday on the eve of
07:28the 2024 college football campaign that starts in
07:31Dublin. Tenth-ranked Florida State and Georgia Tech, an ACC
07:36affair to get us started in 2024. Just want to make this
07:40point. We'll have some bets a little bit later on for you.
07:43Roydell Williams, new transfer running back for FSU in a two
07:47man backfield that also features Lawrence Toefili, who
07:51is big for FSU in the ACC championship game. We'll look
07:55at their rushing yards props, but it will be an area of
07:58attack for me. DRS is Georgia Tech had the third worst
08:03rushing defense in FBS college football. There were 133 teams
08:08playing FBS college football last year in Georgia Tech had
08:11the third worst rushing defense allowing 226 yards per game.
08:16Yeah, and you know what's funny about that too because I
08:18remember a couple years ago. I can't remember the exact
08:21mine. I don't mind Williams like I'm probably getting this
08:23wrong for Ohio State. The reason I'm bringing it up is
08:25they had one of their first games and Kevin. Yeah, Kevin
08:27Weir on the air. He was supposed to be the starter. So
08:30his number is like 101 yards. Like yeah, he should be able to
08:33run wild and like that game that he was plummeting like a
08:36rock because it was understood. He wasn't actually the starting
08:40running back. The only reason I bring this up is because you
08:42try to educate the public on day like it's not like the NFL
08:45where it's like now hold on. No, Nixon's not getting the
08:47cars for the Texans. Kenneth Gainwell starting over Saquon
08:50Barkley. We don't really get those surprises, but you do get
08:53them in college football. So I'm interested to see like
08:55we're almost what 24 hours or so away from game time. Yeah,
08:59I'm looking at those numbers now and you say to yourself
09:01totally there 42 and a half yards. We're Dell Williams 67
09:04and a half. I want to see where those line up here and if
09:06they stay the same because I always remember statistics like
09:08they're like, hey running back number one on the depth chart.
09:11He should get all the bulk of the carries to be like, hey,
09:13the guy's getting carries late in the fourth quarter. What
09:16actually happened to you? So just a word to the wise at that
09:18point that they're probably going to get the bulk, but it's
09:20going to be interesting to see where those numbers wind up
09:22right before we get the game time because that's like to say
09:25somebody probably knows something on what that rotation
09:27is actually going to be and who's going to be the lead ball
09:29carrier and get the majority of the carries. Prop betting in
09:33college football is still a relatively new phenomenon,
09:36which can mean that you have some edges if you hit it right
09:39and you are in the know or it can be the most frustrating
09:42thing you have ever done because availability and injury
09:46reports are not commonplace or at least did not used to be a
09:50common occurrence in college football. More so now
09:53instituted on a conference by conference basis. It can also
09:57be incredibly frustrating when you bet a quarterback and the
10:00over of his rushing yards prop only to see him get sacked twice
10:03late in the game and then the number to stay under elsewhere
10:07in week zero DRS. We've got three other games on the week
10:11a new ACC team in SMU travels out to Nevada. What's
10:17surprising about this SMU earlier this week a 27 and a
10:22half point favorite. Now it's 24 in a hook only the Wolfpack
10:26getting some love in the market Delaware State. We are happy to
10:30report has landed out on the islands and off the mainland
10:34Hawaii though a 39 and a half point favorite against the
10:38Hornets Brayden Shager is back for the Rainbow Warriors under
10:42Timmy Chang. They are going to toss that ball all around the
10:46yard and Montana State is an FCS powerhouse at least has been
10:50that way under Brent vegan the past few years a 32 and nine
10:54record Donnie. It's not often though you see an FCS team
10:58ballooning to a two touchdown favorite virtually against the
11:02FBS school in action in the game in New Mexico. Yeah, that's a
11:07tough look right there for a team that's supposed to be the
11:09better team and playing at home and getting two touchdowns.
11:12It's like you're supposed to open up with cupcakes on your
11:14schedules of major division one team. Now granted they power
11:17five not necessarily, but there's still division one.
11:20That's tough to but also I've always like I've never been to
11:23Hawaii. So let's just say I've been told multiple times. I live
11:26on the East Coast. I want to go to Hawaii Donnie. You're going
11:29to need at least two weeks because that flight out there
11:32is a pain that flight out there back is a pain. You want to be
11:34able to relax and like get your mind about you. So we're led
11:37to believe that Delaware State is flying from the East Coast
11:40out to Hawaii playing a football game right away and
11:43flying back. I mean that just seems like the ultimate fate at
11:46this point and when you do here, you're playing at Hawaii.
11:48It's got to be cool for a cause. Hey man, we're at Hawaii.
11:50That's going to be really neat. It's not as if you're flying
11:52out there to lay on the beach for six or seven days, get some
11:54work in and play a game. That's a business and I can't imagine
11:57flying to the West Coast then flying once again. That's too
12:01much for me man. Where are their legs going to be in that
12:03game? Good. Yeah, it's going to be difficult. I can't believe
12:07it's only a twenty-four and a half point spread in favor of
12:10the stayings against Nevada. It's still more than three
12:13scores. It's four scores, but SMU and eleven win team that has
12:17the eleventh most returning production. 78% of their team
12:20back from last year, including virtually their entire offense
12:24and quarterback Preston Stone is only a favorite now against
12:29Nevada, who has won just two games each of the past two
12:33years. Brayden Shager, by the way for Hawaii 297 and a hook
12:38the passing yards prop against Delaware State.