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00:00The Jack of all trades in a big way on this Monday, a prop perspective with Tom Vecchio
00:09here on the early line on SportsGrid. Today, Tom will take us through a season-long prop that he
00:14likes in the National Football League, check Jack of all trades, and go through the Monday MLB card
00:20with a ton to like on the board today and a recap of some final weekend action over in the Olympic
00:27Games. Vecchio, as always, we appreciate the time. Thanks for having me. Yeah, it is truly the dog
00:33days of the MLB season, but football's right around the corner and there's a ton to dig into,
00:38so let's get to it. A ton to dig into indeed, including the gold medal game on Saturday in
00:45men's basketball. If you bet the over on Stephen Curry's points prop, you love what you saw at the
00:51end. Four threes in the final three minutes to lead the Americans and pull away to a fifth
00:56consecutive gold medal over France. Vecchio, as you look back on betting Team USA throughout the
01:03Olympic Games, how will you remember what you saw the past two weeks in Paris? Well, when push comes
01:08to shove, the answer is, I guess, always LeBron and Curry. They'll just get it done when it matters
01:13most, but I also think it's important to note that, you know, in FIBA basketball rules, I think
01:18the gap is closing, and we saw that with Serbia, you know, down at 17 at one point. France gave
01:23them a run for the money, and, you know, looking ahead to the next Olympics, I'm assuming we're
01:28not going to see LeBron, Curry, or Durant play, and I think that's going to be a really tough
01:34challenge for the U.S. Obviously, we don't know what the team's going to be, but it's not like
01:37Wembiana and France are going to get any worse. Like, he's only going to get better over the next
01:41set of years. Jokic is still going to be there, so what the team looks like for the next Olympics,
01:46I think is going to be huge, and which of the players step up to fill that LeBron-Curry-Durant
01:50role is going to be vital. It is going to be vital, too, and also, a lot of you have no shortage of
01:56players that are going to want to play in Los Angeles, in the Olympics, on home turf. Should
02:00be fun to play out. Let me ask you this question, Tom, because, you know, every four years, we get
02:04a taste of international basketball, per se, that we all like to watch and enjoy. Shorter quarters
02:09here, much more physical game. Talk to us about, like, just take a look at the NBA and how you get
02:14the foul calls in the international game. You don't. Did you like that style of basketball that
02:18they played throughout the Olympics? I do. I prefer that style, a little more physical. Like, I grew
02:24up watching the old Big East, so that's the style of basketball I played. That's the style of
02:29basketball I was taught, so I enjoy seeing that. Like, playoff basketball is the best, and that's
02:35what I want to see all year round. That's never going to happen, but that's what I prefer. Ain't
02:39no foul merchants in the old Big East, and we see that in FIBA rules European basketball
02:46throughout the Olympic Games, and the United States makes those adaptations when necessary.
02:50Five consecutive gold medals. Vecchio, the Olympics come to a close. Week number one of the NFL
02:56preseason, with a regular season on the horizon. Here we are during training camp, getting some
03:01glimpses during preseason, and let's highlight some season-long receiving yards props. If you're
03:08looking around the NFL, and you had to highlight a wide receiver, who would that name be, and what's
03:13the prop? That's going to Michael Pittman for the Indianapolis Colts, and over five and a half
03:19receiving touchdowns. It's sitting at plus 108 now. We look back over the first four years of
03:24his career, he has 15 total receiving touchdowns, so getting to six when he has 15 total, there's
03:29obviously a lot going on. First off, he's had seven different quarterbacks throwing him the ball in
03:33the first four years of his career. Phil Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Sam Mellinger, we had
03:40Nick Foles in there, Gardner Minshew, and Anthony Richardson, so there's no surprise to see a little
03:44bit of inconsistency overall, but in the last three years, he's been over 900 yards once,
03:48over a thousand yards twice, and in two of the last three years, he was in the top 20 of the
03:52league among wide receivers when it comes to red zone targets. We also see this year that PFF has
03:57the offensive line for the Colts as the sixth best, so we have great underlying metrics,
04:02a high target share, high red zone targets, your high usage, you're just not getting the touchdowns
04:06because they're variable because of the quarterback play, so a full year of Anthony Richardson
04:11developing behind a great offensive line should put Pittman in a spot to have a career year
04:16and hit six touchdowns and hit the over at five and a half. The offense was very good last year
04:21to under Steichen and a non-mobile quarterback. Now you get that mobile quarterback. The last time
04:25Steichen had that mobile quarterback for a full season was Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, and they
04:29absolutely moved it, and the wide receivers were fantastic. Let's keep it moving to Major League
04:33Baseball today. Pittsburgh and San Diego, one team looking good for the playoffs now, that's the
04:37Padres, one team leaking oil, that's the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you look today's action, a updated
04:43number of minus 164 as a price point is a favorite for San Diego, and a total eight across the board.
04:48Another loss piling up here for the Pirates here, Tom. You know, I have a tough time backing the
04:55Padres, and it's not because the number, you know, Joe Musgrove's making his first start since May
05:0026th, and everything that I could find, he pitched about 60 pitches or so in a minor league rehab
05:05start. I also have trouble taking the Pirates just because their offense can be so inconsistent at
05:11times, and I'm not expecting Musgrove to be in there for a long time, but the Padres' bullpen
05:16has been so good. They have a 3.80 exit, which is the sixth best in the league, so the Pirates,
05:20maybe they're just at this long road trip, they're just getting to the end of it, and they know that
05:24they're out. I can't possibly back them, but I also don't want to back a pitcher coming back
05:29for the first time in two months. So, San Diego has won 16 of its last 19 games. The Padres, 66 and
05:3653. The Diamondbacks, red hot. They've won 15 of their last 18. They are also 66 and 53, and the
05:44Dodgers top the division, but the National League West is having a renaissance. The Giants have won
05:50eight of their last 11, taking on the slumping Braves. San Francisco now only a game and a half
05:56behind Atlanta for the third and final National League wildcard spot, and Becky, I want to
06:01pitchers do what we have tonight by the bay. Blake Snell, the reigning National League Cy Young
06:06winner on the bump for San Fran on the other side for Atlanta. It's the odds-on favorite to win this
06:11year's National League Cy Young award, Chris Sale. What do you like in the opener tonight in San
06:16Francisco? I like Sale under eight and a half strikeouts, and I know that might be a bit of a
06:21stretch for some people considering how good he has been. You know, 32.6% strikeout rate this year,
06:25but if we dig into it, San Francisco at home this year versus lefties, they have a 21.6%
06:31strikeout rate, which isn't high at all. They also have a 123 WRC plus versus lefties at home,
06:35and that's the sixth best in the league. So, I know Sale has been great, but there's a small
06:40part of me that thinks the Braves are trying to protect Sale and not going to be pushing him over
06:45100 pitches too often because their pitching staff is not looking good right now. Max Fried
06:49came back, but he's still not great. Lopez is on the IL. Their pitching staff is not at 100%,
06:55and we are getting to crunch time with the Giants very close behind them, with the Padres very close
06:59behind them. Musgrove coming back for the Padres. We know who the Giants have been. I think they're
07:03going to try and reel in Sale just a little bit, and that's going to limit his potential to get to
07:08over eight and a half strikeouts. Tom, in that wild card market at the season end today, the
07:12Diamondbacks, Padres, and Braves will be in, but the Braves certainly playing the Giants today.
07:17Only a half game up on the Mets. Every single game matters, and it's certainly going to be a
07:21sprint to the finish. Now, we say every single game matters. Maybe that's not the case for the
07:25Chicago White Sox. You take a look at them taking on the Yankees today. Heel versus Kai Bush. Minus
07:30330 price for the Yankees. They're not even at home. They're on the road with a total of nine.
07:35Unbelievable. What's your approach to the White Sox? And also, that big of a favorite on the road
07:40is back to run line at that point. The money line implies that they're not going to be tested in this
07:50game, so therefore, it should be a relatively easy win in the run line. It's probably the best route
07:54to go because I'm never going to lay 310 in a baseball game ever. Let's just go to Kai Bush
08:00under three and a half strikeouts. This is his second career start. We look to some of his
08:05minor league numbers. He had 11.8% strikeout rate in AAA this year. Very small sample size.
08:0910.1% strikeout rate in AA earlier this year and 11.6% strikeout rate in AA last year. He also
08:14struggles with walks. We have a red hot Yankees offense and a pitcher we can't possibly trust
08:20to do anything. And if the fly balls get going at a guaranteed rate field,
08:24which is also a good hitter's park, it is going to be a short outing for Kai Bush.
08:30Grady Sizemore, not off to a great start as the interim manager for the Chicago White Sox,
08:34but really nobody is. The White Sox have now lost three in a row. A historic streak may be
08:40building once again. Vecchio, quickly here. Final play of the day. A 22-game hit streak
08:45came to a close yesterday for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Does he get back on track with a new streak
08:50starting today? Yeah, he gets right back to it today. Let's go to two plus total bases and minus
08:55125. 155 WRC plus and 388 Wobo going up against Wrighties. He's facing Davis. Daniel has given up
09:01a 563 slugging to Wrighties and 1.74 home runs per nine. So to keep it simple, Vladdy getting
09:06back on track. I like the look there for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. One of the few bright spots for the
09:13Blue Jays this year. They lost their weekend set to the A's, who are 20 and 13 since July 2nd.
09:19Keep an eye on Oakland. Tom Vecchio, we appreciate the time. Thanks for being here.