Professor Who's Predicted 9 Out Of 10 Past Elections Asked: Does Harris Have A Chance At Winning?

2 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," creator of the "Keys to the White House" Professor Alan Lichtman discussed Vice President Kamala Harris's possibility of winning the 2024 presidential election.

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Transcript

00:00Yes, but you you named everyone that you named was a Democrat who did not win the presidency.

00:06So as we sit here right now, we are 24 hours out from that announcement.

00:12Vice President Kamala Harris is not the nominee.

00:16Some are endorsing her.

00:17Many Democrats are endorsing her, others withholding that endorsement, like former President Obama.

00:22As we sit here right now, where the chips have fallen, do Democrats have a chance at

00:27winning?

00:29Oh, absolutely, of course.

00:31Let's presume Democrats suddenly grow a spine and a brain and unite behind Harris.

00:38Let's look at my key system.

00:40That would put the Democrats down three keys right now.

00:44The mandate key because of losses in the midterm elections in the U.S. House.

00:49The incumbent charisma key because Harris is not a FDR.

00:57And of course, the incumbency key.

00:59That means.

01:01Three more keys would have to fall to predict their defeat.

01:05And right now I only see four shaky keys, third party, social unrest, foreign slash

01:10military failure and success.

01:13Three of those keys would have to fall to predict the Democrats defeat.

01:18Certainly possible, but not necessarily highly likely.

01:23If the party foolishly plunges into a nomination fight, you then lose another key, the contest

01:29key.

01:30You're down four keys.

01:31Only two shaky keys would have to fall to predict their defeat.

01:36You also push the Democrats into a situation where the White House party has never won.

01:41Whereas, you know, when you have an open seat, it's not great for the White House party.

01:46But if you avoid a contest, you still have a decent chance of winning, as we saw with

01:51Herbert Hoover in 1928 and George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Professor Who's Predicted 9 Out Of 10 Past Elections Asked: Does Harris Have A Chance At Winning?

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