Will The 'Reluctant Trump Voter' Help Carry The Former President Over? Political Scientist Discusses

5 months ago

Professor Emeritus at the University of Chicago Charles Lipson joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss a reluctant Trump voter.

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Transcript

00:00 But I do not want to turn to more general election polling. If we remember in 2016,

00:05 Donald Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton in almost every national poll. He ended up winning,

00:11 so obviously the polls weren't accurate there, but there were many reluctant Trump voters.

00:17 Do you think that we're going to see that in this election?

00:22 I don't know, but I will tell you the way that I knew it was true in 2016. If people were being

00:32 polled by a computer and knew it was a computer voice, they gave a different answer than if a real

00:40 human was asking them. I have a friend now, deceased, who did some of the initial social

00:48 science research on that. Back in the days of door-to-door polling, if a black person came to

00:57 your door and asked the same questions as a white person coming to your door, and of course they did

01:05 random sampling, they got different answers on issues because people, in a good way, I think,

01:13 want to give people what they want. They want to be positive to people. So if a person said,

01:21 "Hello, I'm Mr. Rosenbaum, and I'd like to know your views about anti-Semitism,"

01:26 they might give you a different answer than if you said, "Hello, my name is Mr. Jones."

01:32 And so we just don't know whether or not the fact that Trump, having been president,

01:41 is now a more regularized figure. It's harder, actually, for both parties to paint the president

01:51 in a different way from the way that the public has already seen him. They can see Joe Biden.

01:58 They can see he can't walk off the stage. They can see he can't answer without cards.

02:05 Now, the Republicans will run ads that reinforce that, but the public already knows it.

02:15 The Democrats will run ads that say Trump is a wannabe dictator. The public has already basically

02:24 made up its mind on that. So what you'll be doing, it's important to distinguish two issues.

02:31 One is, what are your views? And then the other is, how important are they to you?

02:37 And I think that's going to be the stress here.

02:41 We've seen that on... The Latch. We've seen that on...

Will The 'Reluctant Trump Voter' Help Carry The Former President Over? Political Scientist Discusses

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