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00:00Adam Kavlin is our NFL insider and people didn't realize that on the side, he's also
00:07one of my physicians.
00:09Ever since my open heart surgery, when I was at the Super Bowl, he did check on me and
00:14do some tests, some blood work, and he listened to my heart to make sure that my new cow valves
00:20were working and my clamp.
00:21And he's done a great job.
00:22Whenever my cardiologist is too busy for me, I always turn to Adam Kavlin and you can turn
00:28to him for your NFL skinny, almost three decades covering the NFL.
00:32You can follow him on X at Kaplan NFL, and he is very popular and very busy.
00:38He's getting ready for his summer tour of training camps.
00:40But before we start today on the NFC North, tell me about this story that's now popping
00:46about Hertz and don't call me Joe Satriani, Sirianni.
00:52Do they have a relationship on the rocks?
00:55Okay.
00:56A couple of things there.
00:57First of all, Jalen Hertz had some strange comments when asked during their OTA program
01:04just about how Sirianni's new role on staff, because remember, they brought in Kellen Moore,
01:10so it's not Nick Sirianni's offense anymore.
01:12Nick gave up the play calling his first year to Shane Steichen, but it's not going to be
01:16his offense anymore.
01:17It's not his scheme, it's Kellen Moore's scheme.
01:19And Hertz's response was, it was just kind of odd, and it was a big story in Philly on
01:25talk radio, by the way, on both radio stations here.
01:28But when you talk about their relationship last season, it was just that Hertz didn't
01:32play well.
01:34They couldn't get him to play at the level that they wanted him to.
01:37And people want to know, what's the issue here?
01:39Because remember, it was Sirianni's run last year.
01:41Yeah, he's their coach, but it's his offensive scheme, the same one, by the way, they got
01:46to the Super Bowl with in 22.
01:48So things kind of dropped off.
01:51And it was just a matter of them being able to reach Hertz and get him to do what they
01:56wanted.
01:57And they couldn't do that.
01:58And that's why Sirianni gave up his scheme to Kellen Moore, and it's Kellen Moore's run,
02:00by the way.
02:01And here's another thing, as we move on with this.
02:03I know there was that podcast in The Athletic where they were talking about this.
02:07But what I can tell you is, Kellen Moore now, who's going to call the plays, it's his scheme.
02:13He's got to develop a relationship with Hertz here.
02:15They got to connect well.
02:16Because this is a brand new scheme, and Hertz, I think this, what I'm told is a little bit
02:21of an exaggeration.
02:22And we talked about the offensive scheme.
02:24It's 95%.
02:25No, it's not really quite that much.
02:27But the bottom line is, it's different.
02:29And Hertz is playing in a variety of schemes going back to his high school days.
02:33And his close buddy, Brian Johnson, the former OC, Brian Johnson is known, is known Hertz's
02:39family, the gentleman was in his single digits as a kid.
02:43And Johnson was let go.
02:45He's now with the commanders in the same division.
02:48This is a big year for Sirianni and also a big year for Hertz.
02:52Well, it sounds like Hertz doesn't like the fact that his longtime friend and coach is
02:58gone and he has to listen to a new guy now and a new scheme.
03:03And we don't even know how he gets along with Kellen Moore.
03:05All right, let's talk about, that's very interesting stuff, by the way.
03:08I think it's going to, that story is not finished yet.
03:11We're going to see how they do.
03:12And he's on a hot seat.
03:14He's lucky he still has his job after the way they played at the end of the season,
03:18Sirianni.
03:19Let's talk about the NFC North, start with the Lions.
03:21All right, so this division, all of a sudden, Scott, all of a sudden is the hot division.
03:26Yes, the AFC North is the best, but all of a sudden we're going to get to the Bears.
03:31They're one of these sexy teams, but it starts with the Lions.
03:34Now the win total is 10 and a half.
03:36The Overs minus 135, the Hunters 110 to win the division is plus, they're plus 150.
03:41Now you and I have talked about the Packers before, how much I like the Packers, but over
03:4510 and a half, I hate to use the word lock.
03:48You got to love that, folks.
03:50They're going to be, if all their key players are healthy, they're easily going to get over
03:5510 and a half.
03:56So 11 wins are more clearly the Overs, the play at minus 135.
04:01The big story here with the Lions is Ben Johnson is back, I'll admit it.
04:05I didn't think that could happen.
04:07The Commanders wanted to hire him, it didn't work out, so they hired Dan Quinn.
04:12Ben Johnson's back, pretty much everybody's back.
04:14Aaron Glenn's back as a defense coordinator, he's done a good job.
04:17And they've addressed their problems on defense with two corners, Carleton Davis in the trade
04:22from Tampa, and Terryon Arnold, their first-round pick out of Alabama.
04:25The only issue for them, and why I do believe the Niners will get to the Super Bowl over
04:29them, is because I don't think their pass rush is going to be good enough.
04:32Other than that, it's a phenomenal football team, really good roster, love that over 10
04:36and a half.
04:38They should have gone to the Super Bowl the way they blew that game against the Niners.
04:41I'm still sick to my stomach over it.
04:44What a choke job that was.
04:46That was almost not as bad as the Falcons in the Super Bowl, but the next best thing.
04:50How about the Packers?
04:51Everyone loves them, including you.
04:53Oh, I can't believe their win total's not 10.
04:57It's 9 and a half.
04:58The Overs, minus 135, the Unners, plus 115.
05:02To win the division, it's plus 210, I like that number.
05:05You look at their offense, you've got Josh Jacobs, who's an upgraded running back.
05:08Aaron Jones is explosive, but he needs to be in a two-back system.
05:12Josh Jacobs is going to be that man.
05:13I know Jacobs didn't play well last season.
05:15Remember, he had the holdout, the timing was off with him, and their head coach with the
05:20Raiders, and their play caller, Josh McDaniels, was fired midstream.
05:23That screwed up everything.
05:24Josh Jacobs now, he's got a big salary.
05:26He's going to be the man.
05:27Now, defensively, they're going to have a new scheme, and I like this one.
05:31I really like this one.
05:32It's going to be a 43, but they're going to, as I was told by a player recently of
05:36the Packers, they're going to do some good disguise.
05:39The edge rushers are going to stand up a little bit.
05:41It's going to look a little different than the 34 front that they run under Barry there.
05:47Barry, who's gone, who's moved on.
05:49But the bottom line is, this is a really good football team, well-coached in offense, deepest
05:54receiver core in football, and Joe Barry's no longer there.
05:57I like Jeff Halfley, who's going to run their defense.
05:59I like this thing.
06:01They're going to push the Lions to the limit.
06:03I love the over nine and a half at minus 135.
06:05So the back end at safety and corners is not a concern at all, because I think their offense
06:12is stacked.
06:13The quarterback's a badass.
06:15They got Jacobs.
06:16I'm not worried about their offense.
06:17I'm not worried about their coaching.
06:19I am question mark on their back end.
06:22Yes, opposite Jair Alexander, who, by the way, didn't play well last season, but that
06:27Dallas game, he was phenomenal, where they blew out the Cowboys on the road.
06:30Yeah, they're not good at corner opposite them.
06:32But now, I like the safety group, which was not good last season.
06:35They brought in Xavier McKinney, 17 million a year.
06:38I love that move.
06:39And Javon Bullard, one of the best safeties in this draft, out of Georgia in the second
06:43round.
06:44So the cornerback position, they're not real deep.
06:46That to me is a concern.
06:47All right.
06:48So I want to hear your thoughts on this Bears team that's getting so much hype.
06:53It's not even funny.
06:54I don't believe for one minute they're going to live up to it.
06:57Not only do I not believe they're going to live up to it all.
06:59Let's talk about Eberflus being the coach of the year and everything else.
07:02I can't even take it.
07:04Eight and a half.
07:06Listen to this.
07:07Their win total is eight and a half.
07:08It's minus 165 on the over.
07:11Everyone's hammering that over.
07:12You and I are seeing this the same.
07:13The under is plus 140 to win the division.
07:16It's only plus 265.
07:18Brand new scheme here.
07:20Under Shane Waldron, who did a great job of developing Gino Smith into a competent starting
07:23quarterback for two seasons.
07:25And then when you look at it, the run game, DeAndre Schrift is going to be there.
07:28They're going to spread things out.
07:29They're absolutely loaded receiver.
07:31It's defensively.
07:32They're not going to have much of a pass rush.
07:34Montez Sweat, who's a decent pass rusher, extended his contract at the time of the trade
07:38from Washington.
07:39Love their back seven.
07:41Don't like their D-line.
07:42Don't like their D-line at all, to be honest with you.
07:44They'll be a nice team.
07:45Eight or nine wins.
07:47I think that over is crazy at minus 165 at eight and a half.
07:51Yeah.
07:52I'm with you.
07:53I'm not buying it and I'll believe it when I see it.
07:56I think it's still going to be difficult for Williams.
07:59They were not a good team.
08:00They haven't been a good team.
08:02All they do is lose.
08:04It's been going on forever.
08:06And now everyone thinks because they got him that it's going to flip like a pancake.
08:09I am not buying that.
08:11All right.
08:12The Vikings, another question mark, but at least Jefferson's loaded.
08:16Yeah.
08:17They had been the darling of the division for years.
08:19And then unfortunately, Kirk Cousins shares his Achilles.
08:22Their season goes down in the tank.
08:23They went through a spate of quarterbacks.
08:25Now you look at it.
08:26J.J. McCarthy, the first round pick right now, they think Donald will be ready to start
08:30week one.
08:31But I'm not going there yet.
08:32Sam Donald is a journeyman.
08:33He has trouble processing decent athlete like people around and love him because he's tough.
08:39But in the end, generally gets replaced.
08:42And J.J. McCarthy was the first round pick.
08:44They had a chance to trade up for him.
08:45They didn't.
08:46They got him.
08:47He was their man, their win total, because nobody's on them at all is six and a half.
08:51The over is minus 150.
08:53The honors plus 125.
08:54The win in the division plus 1,000.
08:57It's got nobody into them at all.
08:59And I agree with that.
09:00That's one where I agree with the odds maker.
09:02Six and a half.
09:03They might get seven.
09:04But to me, actually, like the under more at plus 125.