If Biden Drops Out, This Is What Delegates Could Do At DNC Open Convention: Presidential Historian
On "Forbes Newsroom," presidential historian Professor David Greenberg spoke about what could happen if President Biden ends his 2024 campaign, the assassination attempt on President Trump, the selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) as the 2024 Republican Vice Presidential nominee, and more.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi everyone, I'm Maggie McGrath, senior editor at Forbes.
00:07These past several days have brought a bevy of headlines about the presidential election
00:11and whether or not President Biden will remove himself from the race.
00:16Here to give us some context and explain this moment in history is presidential historian
00:22David Greenberg.
00:23David, thank you so much for joining us.
00:25Sure.
00:26I'm glad to be with you.
00:27Busy times.
00:29Busy times.
00:30As I said to you before we started recording, I feel like I've lived a year in the last
00:34week.
00:35But let's talk about where we are right now.
00:37As we are recording this, top Democrats are calling on President Biden to drop out of
00:42the presidential race.
00:44What is the precedent for something like this to happen after so many voters have voted
00:49in the primaries?
00:50Really, there is none.
00:53The primary system as we know it sort of started in 1972.
00:59There were primaries before that going all the way back to the early 1900s.
01:03But only in the 70s did they become the binding method for choosing the party's nominee.
01:11And since then, no one has ever dropped out after winning, which Biden, of course, won.
01:17He ran pretty much unopposed.
01:19There was a kind of token opposition in the form of Dean Phillips, an admirable Minnesota
01:25congressman who warned that Biden was not in good enough health or sort of at the top
01:32of his game strong enough to beat Trump in a rematch.
01:37But at the time, of course, people stuck with Biden, trusted in Biden and voted for Biden.
01:43So we really are in uncharted territory.
01:46You have to go back to the years before the primaries were the method for selecting nominees.
01:54And back then, that was done by the delegates.
01:59Party leaders in each state, governors, state senators, that sort of thing, who would decide
02:07our state's going for Kennedy, our state's going for Adlai Stevenson.
02:11And they would decide who the nominee was, not the voters at large.
02:17So are we in a situation now where if President Biden drops out of the race, it's down to
02:23these delegates at the DNC?
02:26That's exactly right.
02:28So right now, the delegates are bound.
02:30They're pledged to vote for Biden, but he can release them from that.
02:35He's the only one who can do that.
02:37That's why people have been waiting on Biden to say, I'm ready to step aside, which, as
02:44we're talking right now, he still hasn't done, although it's looking like that's at least
02:49more of a possibility than it seemed, you know, a week or two ago.
02:54So we will have a sort of strange and unfamiliar situation where roughly 4000 people will get
03:02to decide who who they want the nominee to be.
03:05And if there's one person nominated, then it'll be easy.
03:10If there's several people nominated, it'll be whoever gets to 50 percent of the delegates
03:15first.
03:16You may have to have several ballots before one person clears 50 percent.
03:21Of course, we're dealing in hypotheticals here.
03:23But just to continue down this hypothetical path, if President Biden drops out, he's on
03:27a ticket with Vice President Harris.
03:30So would he say or could he confer his delegates to Vice President Harris or do the delegates
03:38literally just get to be on the DNC floor and say, I want Bernie Sanders back or I want
03:43Hillary Clinton back or what happens there?
03:47Yeah, the delegates get to decide.
03:49I mean, Biden can put his thumb on the scales by saying, I endorse Vice President Harris.
03:55And if he does that, it would likely be in concert with other party leaders to try to
04:00create a fait accompli, the sense that she is the handpicked successor and that most
04:07of the delegates would therefore go along.
04:10It's also the case that, you know, it changes from convention to convention.
04:16But each year, the rules specify how a nomination is made, how many signatures or votes you
04:24need to be a full fledged nominee that is, you know, nominated to be the nominee.
04:32So you might not have more than one candidate.
04:36But if it's a truly open convention, as we call it, then, you know, in the past, sometimes
04:41people have from the floor, you know, on the second day of the convention, third day of
04:46the convention, we still don't have a nominee.
04:48Someone new is put into the mix and that scrambles everything.
04:52I don't think we're likely to go that route this year, but it's not out of the realm of
04:57possibility.
04:59So anything is possible, it sounds like.
05:03Well, certainly there's a broad range of possibilities.
05:06I mean, right now, what I'm hearing is that there's a sense that Harris should be the
05:13nominee if it's not Biden.
05:15But there's a lot of other people who look at her polling and say she's not that strong
05:22against Trump. Shouldn't the party put forward the person who would be the best, strongest
05:27nominee? If we're going this unprecedented route of asking, let's face it, a successful
05:35one term president who's proven himself capable of beating Trump for asking him to step
05:40aside after having won all the primaries.
05:44We should only take that extraordinary measure in order to get the best candidate out
05:48there. And depending on your analysis, that may or may not be Vice President Harris.
05:56Who are these delegates?
05:57You mentioned a few potential titles in your comments before, but I guess I'm wondering
06:02because if I'm a voter in Pennsylvania or any of the states, I think I'm probably feeling a
06:08little bit like, hey, I did my duty as a citizen.
06:11I voted in the primary.
06:12And now my candidate, again, in this hypothetical scenario, is dropping out.
06:17So can I, as a voter, call a delegate and say, I want you to put forward Bernie Sanders
06:24because I loved him so much in 2016 or I think Hillary Clinton is the only person who can
06:28beat Donald Trump?
06:30Can regular voters do that?
06:33Well, they certainly can try.
06:35You can certainly weigh in whether or not you'll have much influence would remain to be
06:42seen. These delegates, when you voted, let's say you're a Pennsylvania voter, when you voted
06:48for Joe Biden back in the primary, you weren't actually voting for Joe Biden.
06:53I mean, you were, but you were really voting for a list of names of people who had pledged
07:00themselves to be Joe Biden delegates.
07:03If Dean Phillips, let's say, had actually won in Pennsylvania, a different group of
07:09individuals would be going to the convention representing Pennsylvania.
07:14They would be people loyal to Dean Phillips.
07:17So these people who are loyal to Joe Biden, again, they tend to be prominent state
07:23politicians or mid-level politicians, but not always.
07:27You know, they might be somebody active in a union or just sort of people who are locally
07:33active in politics and managed to get their name on the ballot as a Biden delegate.
07:39And we think that they will probably have leanings, much like Biden, sort of center-left,
07:47mainstream liberal.
07:49But, you know, some of them may track more left-wing progressive than Biden.
07:56And in theory, that could be a problem if you have people wanting to nominate a Bernie
08:02Sanders or an AOC or a Ro Khanna or somebody who's way out of the mainstream and would
08:08likely get demolished by Trump.
08:11Now, there's another phrase or word that we might hear in the coming months, and that's
08:17superdelegate.
08:18What is the difference between a delegate and superdelegate and how do they play into
08:22this process?
08:23So in the 1980s, the Democrats created the second class of delegates called superdelegates.
08:30I think they're now called automatic delegates, but everyone still calls them
08:34superdelegates.
08:35These are people who simply by virtue of their position, being a sitting governor, elected
08:42member of Congress, certain other offices, automatically get a vote.
08:48But under new rules, they don't get a vote on that first ballot.
08:54So in most of our last 50, 60 years, we've only had one ballot.
09:00That's all it took because you had a winner going into the convention.
09:05But in an open convention, those first 4000 delegates might divide themselves among four
09:12different possibilities.
09:14So then on the second round, the superdelegates also get a vote.
09:18So their preferences are now in consideration.
09:22And the thinking is they would sort of weight the choice, you know, toward a more
09:28established, mainstream, proven elected official, less likely than an ordinary delegate
09:37to back someone who's either ideologically eccentric or has an unusual background or
09:42that kind of thing.
09:45Speaking of unusual backgrounds, you parlayed your answer right into my next question,
09:49which is we are speaking during the RNC.
09:52It's ongoing as we speak.
09:54And candidate Trump has nominated or chosen J.D.
09:59Vance as his vice president this time around.
10:02And J.D. Vance spoke at the convention.
10:05J.D. Vance, of course, is an author and he is a senator in Ohio, but it's a relatively
10:11young political career.
10:13Can you put into context for us J.D.
10:16Vance's vice presidential candidacy?
10:18How does he compare to other people who are typically chosen for vice president?
10:24Yes, well, Vance is unusually young.
10:29One comparison that's been made is to Richard Nixon, because Nixon, when he was chosen by
10:36Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, was also quite young, still in his 30s, had been senator for
10:43two years, had been a congressman for four years before that.
10:48So had a little more experience, but was seen as a new, young, fresh face.
10:54This was sort of before he really became known as Tricky Dick in the mind of the public at
11:00large. And Eisenhower thought that Nixon could sort of unite the right wing, the wing of
11:07Joe McCarthy and sort of the real fiercely anti-communist side with the more moderate
11:15wing that Eisenhower represented.
11:17And Nixon was kind of seen as able to bridge that.
11:21Vance, in his own way, could be seen as a bridge.
11:24You know, he started off certainly as a conservative.
11:29If people have read Hillbilly Elegy, there's certainly notes of conservative policy
11:35prescription, but kind of a moderate conservative, a fairly appealing voice as the
11:41success of his book and the movie that was based on it, A Test, went to Yale Law School
11:46where he was surrounded by a lot of liberal people and seemed able to make his way in
11:51that world. But in the last few years, he's really turned toward a more Trumpy kind of
11:58right wing conservatism, you know, being very dismissive of the importance of Ukraine and
12:04protecting Europe, you know, being more protectionist on issues like trade and some of
12:10these issues where Trump has taken the Republican Party in a more reactionary direction or
12:18populist direction, as some people might call it.
12:21So it's hard to know where Vance's, you know, true political leanings lie or if, you know,
12:29as a relatively young man, he's still in the process of figuring them out.
12:34I see. I was going to ask you what his vice presidency candidacy signals about the
12:40direction of the GOP.
12:43Can you is it too soon to say?
12:45Well, I think it certainly does indicate, you know, a further move away from let's call it
12:52Reaganism. You know, Mike Pence eight years ago was a very different kind of choice,
12:58although Pence was and is a very conservative man.
13:03He was sort of tied to that mainstream what we used to call the conservative movement.
13:08He had been a conservative talk radio host, you know, was quite devout in his Christianity
13:16and had ties to the Christian right.
13:19And Trump sort of picked him to assure that wing that, you know, what was then sort of a
13:25mainstream conservative wing that, you know, Trump was not going to veer too far in his own
13:32policies from what conservatives wanted.
13:35Now, eight years later, you look at, say, who are the Republicans in Congress?
13:40Who are the people that the Republican Party has nominated for governor and senator?
13:46You know, it's a very different profile of person.
13:49And on many issues, they differ.
13:53They still tend to be, you know, a party of tax cutting and anti-government.
13:58But that kind of rhetoric is is less prominent.
14:03And it's much more kind of inward turn, much more an explicit cultivation of the working
14:10class vote, the white working class originally, but now increasingly black and Hispanic as
14:17well. So Vance, with this sort of, you know, coming from Appalachia, coming from a working
14:25class background, Rust Belt is really sort of playing to to that audience and to the
14:31hope that this is the future direction of the Republican Party, that he could be someone,
14:38you know, that Trump could see as an heir apparent, which, you know, with Mike Pence was
14:42never really the case.
14:44You mentioned appealing to working class voters, and I am thinking about the Teamsters
14:50president who spoke at the RNC.
14:52And as we talk about history that's been made this week, this is perhaps more of a
14:56policy wonk piece of history.
14:59But that has never happened.
15:02You normally hear union and you think DNC, if anyone's going to speak at a convention.
15:07Can you put into perspective the significance of the Teamsters appearing at the RNC?
15:14Yeah, well, back in the 70s and even maybe the late 60s, a little bit was when you first
15:20saw this drift of the working class from Democratic to Republican.
15:26And I believe George Meany, I forget if he was the head of the Teamsters or AFL-CIO,
15:33endorsed Nixon.
15:35So there was some precedent back then.
15:39And then in the 90s, Bill Clinton won back labor.
15:44Labor was big in Bill Clinton's corner.
15:47You know, anyone who remembers sort of the anti-impeachment rallies, remember these big,
15:52beefy union guys coming with their pre-made signs.
15:57So labor kind of came back to the Democratic fold.
16:01But while the leadership of labor did, you know, ordinary working class voters, many of
16:08whom were no longer in unions, actually, because unions have been getting progressively
16:13weaker for many decades as we no longer have an industrial economy, which is sort of what
16:19unions were for.
16:22So, you know, there's some suggestion that Sean O'Brien might be sort of following his
16:29base rather than leading them, that as these voters are just, you know, more pro-Trump,
16:35they just have more conservative views on all kinds of social issues, immigration, gender,
16:41race. You know, it makes sense for their leaders to say, you know, I want you to, you
16:47know, I'm going to stick with you and where your political priorities are.
16:52Now, as we talk about the history that's happened within the last week, we'd be remiss not
16:57to talk about the assassination attempt on former President Trump.
17:01And David, I want to ask you a somewhat broad question.
17:04How do assassination attempts affect presidential campaigns and voting outcomes?
17:10What do we know about this?
17:12Well, we really can't generalize because.
17:16You know, they've been they've been so rare on the campaign trail, you know, back in 1972,
17:22you did have George Wallace being shot, that was a very big deal, but, you know, he was a
17:28third party candidate and he he wasn't really destined to to be a major player in the
17:35race. Then you go back to 1912 and Theodore Roosevelt, that was a rather amazing story
17:43where Roosevelt took the bullet and then continued to read and finish his speech before
17:50going off to the hospital.
17:52That was also an odd three way race where Roosevelt, having tried to, Roosevelt had
17:59served as president for seven years and was trying to come back as the Republican nominee,
18:05lost to the incumbent, William Howard Taft.
18:08So you had a three way race.
18:09Woodrow Wilson, the Democrat, ends up winning.
18:12I'm not sure that either of those assassination attempts had any discernible effect on the
18:18outcome. They're big news stories.
18:20And honestly, I'm skeptical that this will have a discernible effect on the outcome.
18:27In the moment, it gives Trump a boost, of course.
18:30There's a there's a surge of sympathy for him, especially at a time when Biden is
18:36contemplating leaving the race when the Democrats seem to be weak and in disarray.
18:41The Republicans are unifying behind Trump.
18:44But, you know, that in July, that happening in July is not likely to make much of a
18:51difference come November.
18:53That's interesting because it felt a little bit like in the immediate aftermath, there was
18:59this public consensus of this is really going to help candidate Trump.
19:03But your perspective is it's it's July.
19:06It's too far away from the actual moment of voting.
19:10And perhaps voters are a little too entrenched in what they were going to do already.
19:16Well, yes, I mean, think about, you know, recent campaigns, 2020, but even more so,
19:222016, all of the major headlines that bombarded us in the fall from the Axis Hollywood tape
19:30for Trump to Jim Comey's letter kind of reopening his investigation of Hillary to, you
19:38know, Russian hacking.
19:40So much went on that, you know, something that happened in July was almost forgotten.
19:46And I rather expect it's going to be a busy and turbulent fall, especially if, as now
19:54seems more likely than not, the Democrats choose a new nominee, you know, very hard to
20:02predict. But if that happens, that will get all the headlines.
20:06That person will have to be sort of vetted in real time by the media.
20:10There'll be puff pieces.
20:12There'll be scandal stories, you know.
20:14So we're going to have a lot of news, a lot of twists and turns, I think.
20:19And, you know, some people say that the real presidential campaign doesn't start until
20:25September, that as much as you and I and people listening to us may be plugged in right
20:31now, a sizable number of voters really do not tune in until the home stretch.
20:40So there's still a lot of minds to be made up.
20:44When you say that it could get even more turbulent, I feel like my only response is
20:49buckle in. But I do want to ask you, because you are an historian and you can provide a
20:53wide lens on this.
20:55So many people say we live in unprecedented times and I'm sick of living in
20:58unprecedented times.
21:00How unprecedented is this moment really and really the past eight years?
21:05Or does history always feel unprecedented when you're living through it?
21:09Well, look, I mean, I never like the word unprecedented because, of course, things are
21:14different. I mean, everything's always in flux.
21:17Everything's always changing.
21:19And yes, I mean, I think you'd be a fool to deny that these are unusually polarized
21:26times, dramatic times.
21:28We've seen a surge in political violence.
21:31That's quite uncommon.
21:33Not just the assassination of Trump, but over many years, other members of Congress
21:41being shot at, people being stalked at their homes.
21:45Like, you know, the boundaries of civility are falling away, the guardrails of
21:52democracy. But this is not the only time we've been through something like that.
21:56I mean, people, some of our listeners will remember the late 60s as a time where there
22:02were multiple assassinations.
22:05Martin Luther King, Robert F.
22:07Kennedy. As I said, Wallace was shot a few years later, not killed, but shot.
22:12You had, you know, riots in the streets.
22:17You know, it was a very turbulent time when a lot of people thought American society was
22:22coming apart at the seams.
22:23You can go back, you know, to to other eras where there were periods of, you know,
22:30anarchist terrorism.
22:32You can go back, of course, to the pre-Civil War era, not that anybody hopes that that
22:37would be a precedent where the country literally goes to war with itself.
22:42So, you know, we are in times that are quite different and quite different from what most
22:48of us have grown up with.
22:50But at the same time, you know, you can find, you know, certain precedents and certain
22:56certain other periods that were turbulent, that were disruptive, where people feared for
23:00the future of democracy, where people feared for the stability of the system.
23:06It's cold comfort to say, well, we made it through then.
23:09I don't think that should diminish our vigilance and concern about the health of the
23:13present moment. But it is important to realize that, you know, this is not sort of
23:20completely new in all respects.
23:23So since it is not completely new and we're coming up towards the end of time I have
23:28with you, what are what are your final thoughts?
23:30What would you like to leave with our audience?
23:32Either words of comfort, words of this is something to watch for.
23:36You know, if we don't know our history, we're doomed to repeat it.
23:39What is one thing everyone should know as we move forward into this very, very busy
23:44summer? Well, I think, you know, it'd be kind of foolish to try to offer words of of
23:52comfort. I tend to be an optimist myself, but, you know, I'll confess that, you know, I
23:57have great anxiety about the state of our democracy and the state of our civil
24:02discourse. I do think that times of high political engagement, you know, can lead to
24:12times of higher, you know, greater political education and that if people do sort of
24:19use the the excitement and the passions that get them into politics, if they then
24:26channel that into a kind of serious concern with the health of democracy, you know, we
24:31could come out on the other side, you know, if not stronger, at least with our
24:38institutions intact.
24:40But we have a long way to go before I think any of us can rest easy and say that all is
24:47well with American democracy right now.
24:50Well, David Greenberg, we hope you join us on that road again sometime soon.
24:54But in the meantime, thank you so much for joining us today.
24:57Sure. Good to talk with you.