On "Forbes Newsroom," political scientist and University of Chicago Professor Emeritus Charles Lipson discussed the RNC, the assassination attempt against former President Trump, whether President Biden will drop out of the 2024 contest, and more.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes breaking news. Joining me now is Charles Lipson,
00:08professor emeritus at the University of Chicago. Charles, thank you so much for joining me.
00:13Always enjoy it, Brittany. Charles, I was telling you this earlier, but this week could
00:18really give anyone whiplash with the political news coming out. I mean, it's really enough
00:22for an entire election season jam packed in six days. So let's take it back to last Saturday.
00:29That's when former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt against
00:33him at a political rally in Pennsylvania. What's your reaction to that news?
00:39I don't know about you, Brittany, but I was I followed it in real time, not because I
00:45had been watching the rally in in Butler, Pennsylvania, but because a friend who is
00:52in the financial markets immediately texted me and said Trump has been shot. So I turned
00:59on TV. And I think the difference in experience for people who didn't know the outcome immediately
01:10and people who tuned in a half an hour, an hour later and knew he had been shot but survived
01:17and the injury was minor. That's a very different that's a very different experience. My experience
01:25was just shock and fear. And that was not a partisan fear. It was just I've been through
01:32this in 68. I can remember as a child, John F. Kennedy being shot, it disorients your
01:39entire world. But I think when Donald Trump raised his fist with that flag in the background,
01:53that will define his every biography of him that will define this campaign and his memory
02:03in the future. And I think it Yogi Berra once said it's hard to predict, especially about
02:09the future. But it's really hard to see how he is defeated in this election. And equally
02:16important, he's going to carry it looks like a lot of swing districts, which is why you
02:22see a kind of widespread panic. But I think that when he why did he raise his fist? A
02:29because that's who he is. And B, I think he was really trying to reassure the crowd that
02:36was there. The crowd that was watching on TV and the whole world that he was safe, as
02:44far as he knew. And that he said, fight, fight, fight. I mean, it's just it's an iconic
02:52moment. And it contrasts very sharply with an incumbent president who needs his wife or a
03:01former president to lead him off the stage.
03:05To your point right there. I mean, he popped down was bombarded by Secret Service came back
03:11up and made it a point to raise his fist and tell the crowd fight. The crowd was chanting
03:16USA. I was watching in real time as well. So what do you think the impact on the race is
03:23going to be after this moment?
03:26Decisive, decisive. I mean, if you were looking for strength and endurance through any
03:38crisis, what could be better proof? And this wasn't partisan. This was in the message itself
03:48wasn't partisan of raising his fist. It was the that the song that he should play was an old
04:02Donna Summer song from disco. I will survive.
04:09I'm Yeah, I mean, well, he walked out at the RNC to a different song twice, Lee Greenwood's, God
04:17bless the USA. And Donald Trump, many have pointed out, he looked different at the RNC. He
04:24looks like he was misty eyed at some points, his smile, he people have described him as more
04:30human. What do you think of him at the RNC and the RNC as a whole, especially when this event less
04:37than 48 hours from the kickoff of the RNC was the backdrop?
04:42I thought that the RNC was a tremendous success for what they were trying to do. And it was very
04:51focused and on point. And the least focus and least on point was Donald Trump's the sort of second
04:58half of his speech. I completely agree with you, by the way, the first part of that speech, when he
05:04was recounting for what he says is the first and last time what that experience of being shot was
05:10like. He looked reflective, serious. The, the motto of Aristotle is know thyself. That's what it
05:23looked like. I didn't think that the second half of the speech did him any good. Because it ran on
05:32too long. If he cut two thirds of it, he would have been much better off. But my favorite moment, I
05:38didn't watch all the convention. As they say, I have a life to lead. But I thought my favorite moment at
05:46the convention was the priest who did the imitation of Donald Trump before he did the benediction. And
05:55you could just see the smile on Trump's face. And I thought having his granddaughter, well, there were
06:02two granddaughter moments. One was a great speech by the granddaughter. I thought the granddaughter
06:07speech was better than her father's or her uncle's. But seeing Donald Trump with the young granddaughter
06:16on his lap was a very humanizing moment. It's, in a way, it's kind of sad that we think about electing
06:26leaders, because of these more personalistic elements, but we do. And, and I think that helps Trump now
06:38and hurts Biden now.
06:41I think that's a really interesting point, because there were a few speeches like Laura Trump's, like
06:47the granddaughter Kai Trump of, hey, despite his mean tweets, despite maybe some tweets, you don't
06:53like some rhetoric you don't like. He's my grandpa. He's like any other grandpa. He sneaks me candy and
06:58soda. He's a great father-in-law. He's great with my kids. So what do you think the strategy of, like
07:06you said, humanizing Donald Trump was?
07:10Well, I think that the point, the main point of the convention was to draw sharp policy contrasts with
07:20the current administration. And to say, as Reagan did, in effect about Jimmy Carter, are you better
07:28off now than you were four years ago? Are you safer? Are you more prosperous? And so forth. And it's
07:35clearly now Trump's party. And what strikes me is both the transformation of the party into a kind of
07:44working class populist nationalist party under Trump. That's, by the way, the reason I think that he
07:52picked JD Vance, because he is the emblem of that transformation. And he will ensure that it continues
08:04into 2028 and beyond. But I also think that the Democrats are still running against the party of
08:16George HW Bush. Every time they talk about tax cuts, and so forth. It's all for the rich. They think
08:22they're running against country club Republicans. But, but Republicans don't think that. And I don't
08:29think that independents in the country think that. But I don't, a final point, I don't think that this
08:39race will be fundamentally a positive race. I think it will be a plebiscite in which people vote
08:47negatively, either about Biden, or whoever replaces him, because Biden's policies are not idiosyncratic.
08:57They are mainline democratic policies. And because of that, I don't see Kamala definitely can't run away
09:08from him. She's the Vice President. It's the Hubert Humphrey problem in 1968. How can you run away from
09:14Lyndon Johnson? Right. And all the other Democrats supported it. And they were part of a cover up. They
09:21all knew that Joe Biden was declining cognitively and physically. And they and the mainstream media
09:30covered it all up. So it's very damaging to them.
09:34Let's talk about that contrast really quick. Because at the RNC, what we all saw was a very unified GOP. I
09:43mean, you had everyone from Nikki Haley to Donald Trump himself speaking, even the Teamsters president
09:48making history as the first time a Teamsters president was speaking at the RNC. And then this is
09:55happening as there is waves in the Democratic Party. I mean, after the assassination attempt on Saturday,
10:02calls publicly quieted for Joe Biden to step aside. And they reignited this week with Adam Schiff calling
10:09him on him to step down. A letter from Jamie Raskin, essentially saying, you'll make the right decision,
10:16even though President Biden said he already made his decision. He said, I'm running. And Democrats seem to
10:22say, we're leaving it up to him. We're looking for his decision. So what do you think of this contrast between
10:28Democrats and Republicans right now?
10:31Sharp, sharp contrast, and it benefits the Republicans, the party of Trump. But I would say this, one of the
10:40things, but just because you say something doesn't mean what you say is credible to the people who are
10:49receiving the message. And that's been part of Biden's problem on the international stage. And it's part of
10:56Trump's strength. You know, Putin doesn't know what the heck he'll do. Kim doesn't know what the heck he'll do.
11:03She doesn't know what the heck he'll do. So his his threats, I might do something, and I might do something
11:10harsh. And if he does it, he won't wait a week and a half and listen to Anthony Blinken and other people, he'll
11:18just do it. And so that lends a deterrent credibility to his threats. Now, as for Biden saying, I'm staying in, I
11:31mean, look, the last job Biden held was mowing lawns for a quarter or something. He's been in politics all of his
11:39adult life. And it's how his family made his money. It's all that they do. And it's very clear that Joe Biden
11:49wants him to stay in and he has the votes to win the nomination. What was striking to me, Brittany, was that he
12:00wanted the convention to hold an early Zoom session to lock in the nomination. And I've never seen a situation
12:11where the party overrode the incumbent president to do to do something against his wishes like this. They said,
12:21No, we're not going to do it. And I think that was a real signal to him. But don't believe everything you hear. He may
12:31get out, he may not. I think the main problem with him continuing to try to run is that nobody believes he can make it
12:45even through the rest of the year, much less through four years. So it looks like he'll be turning over the the Oval
12:53Office at some point to Kamala Harris. Well, if he's going to do that, why not let the voters decide?
13:00Do you think that within the upcoming days, weeks to the DNC? Do you think he will step aside? Do you think that will
13:09reach a fever pitch where he'll come to that decision on his own?
13:16Well, he's not exactly coming to it on his own. He's coming to it under tremendous pressure. But we don't know if he'll make
13:23that decision. But they don't have a horse's head to put in his bed as a threat. And it's unclear what the incentives, the sort
13:35of carrot and stick, they don't have any sticks, they don't have any carrots. Now, what, what has changed over the past
13:43couple of weeks has been that the money has dried up. And the private conversations with him have been important. But a
13:54couple of days ago, three, four days ago, he went to Michigan, you remember that Brittany? And did you notice that there
14:01were no major elected officials from Michigan who are willing to appear in the crowd? None. And that tells him something
14:13very important. That's like those, when you call up some lovely woman for a date in high school, and she says, in three
14:23weeks, and she says, No, I'm sorry, I have to wash my hair that night.
14:27So what you're saying, basically, is it's a message received?
14:34Yes, well, it's a message sent. Now, that's been the problem. Does he receive the message? Well, he may receive the
14:41message, but it doesn't convince him. I think the problem he now faces, and he must realize it, is he won't have money to
14:49run the campaign. And I thought, okay, the money is being diverted down ballot, because those people are petrified. The
14:57people are coming out publicly against him. This is different from the private conversations with Schumer and Pelosi and so
15:05forth. People who are coming out publicly are people who are who are in very embattled re-election efforts. They're in purple
15:14states. They're Jon Tester. If you hear the same thing from Casey in Pennsylvania, or some of the other close races, Jackie
15:24Rosen in Nevada, that will add to the pressure. But frankly, it's unclear if Kamala Harris will help much more at the top of the
15:38ticket. And if they bypass her, they'll blow up their coalition.
15:45Within the Biden presidency, I mean, Kamala Harris has seen worse approval ratings than President Biden himself. And I want to
15:54talk about the Republican counterpart there, J.D. Vance. That was the big news out of the RNC. Donald Trump selected the
16:01senator from Ohio to be his running mate. What do you think of that choice?
16:06I wrote an article a couple of days ago that said, why didn't he choose X or Y? Why did he choose J.D. Vance? So let's look at
16:22that. I thought that in a lot of ways, his best choice was Yunkin. Because Yunkin could help a lot, not only in Virginia, but in
16:32swing states like Pennsylvania. It's unclear, some of the others, why he didn't choose them. But I think, first of all, Vance is
16:46whip smart. Secondly, Trump was willing to ignore some very harsh statements that Vance had made earlier against Trump. Because
16:59Vance has obviously changed his position. Now you could say that's opportunistic. But I think Vance sees which side his bread is
17:09buttered on. And this is Trump's party, and you do not want to be against Trump. I thought the reason to choose a guy like Yunkin was
17:22that the thing that undid Trump last time was that he was never able to get control of the permanent government, what some people
17:31call the deep state or the permanent bureaucracy. So a really competent guy who's been in business and then led a state government
17:40would be helpful there. And I do think that Trump will have some of those people around him, led probably by John Ratcliffe, who was
17:51formerly the head of DNI and so forth. And a lot of his people are experienced now at managing the government from the first. But I
18:02think what the J.D. Vance selection tells you is that Trump is completely confident he will win. He is not picking somebody who will
18:15help him to the extent any vice president can in swing states. He's picking somebody who is a MAGA Republican to continue the party in
18:29that vein after his presidency. Because remember, Trump will be a lame duck on the day he removes his hand from the Bible.
18:41Let's talk about what you think that future will be, because something that has loomed large over this election definitely has been age. I mean, Bill
18:50Clinton, as of right now, is younger than both Trump and Biden, and he was president 30 years ago. So J.D. Vance is 39 years old, not a career
19:02politician, was elected to the Senate in 2022, is less of a traditional Republican, more of that Trump MAGA Republican. So what do you think
19:12this indicates about the future of the GOP?
19:16Well, I think the main thing that it indicates is that the party has been transformed. Now, they can't emphasize too much J.D. Vance's youth,
19:27because it contrasts with Trump. What they'll indicate, what they'll do is contrast the vigor of Vance and Trump against Biden's
19:41decrepitness if Biden stays in. And then, you know, if J.D. Vance will just shred Kamala Harris in a debate, he's just whip smart. And he's a
20:00great big debater. But I think what it all indicates is that they're building a, not so much a youth movement, but a working class movement. I mean,
20:11this is a guy who can go into a rural community. I grew up in a town of 2000 people. The main industry was farming. The second largest industry
20:22was crushing soybeans for their oil, soybean oil. So, but it was mostly cotton farming and soybeans, 2000 people. That's how many people
20:33lived in the town. J.D. Vance can go into a town like that. Kamala Harris just flies over it.
20:42I think a big question going into this weekend, heading into Monday, is the question of will he or won't he, meaning will President Biden step
20:52aside from the race or won't he? He and his campaign are saying he will not. So what are you looking out for this weekend and come Monday?
21:02Well, I thought the most important signal was that he no longer referred to getting a message from God to take him out, but rather a message from his
21:13doctor. If his doctor told him that there were reasons he shouldn't continue, then he would get out. Well, look, those reasons are already
21:23there. So that's a built-in excuse. But long ago, before Richard Nixon changed the dollar's role in the world, there used to be what were
21:40called fixed exchange rates. So the exchange rate between the dollar and the British pound was $2.40. And today, if you want, if you're
21:55planning a trip to London or France or whatever, you look at the pound, you look at the euro, and it's going to have a different rate every day
22:04in the same way that ground beef or milk has a different price every day. But that was not true in the past. How does that relate here?
22:14Well, if you're going to devalue a currency, you always said we're never going to devalue, we're never going to devalue, we're never going to
22:24devalue, oops, we just devalued. Because as soon as you say you might, the markets will move in and force you to do it. So you couldn't say it.
22:38And the same is true. If you look at sporting managers, the manager of baseball team match football team or soccer team, the owner comes out and
22:49says we're 100% 1000% behind our current management. And they say it repeatedly until they fire the guy. The difference here is that Biden owns the
23:01team. He's not only the manager on the field, he would have to fire himself. And that's why the pressure is on. And if you read those headlines,
23:15even from Nancy Pelosi, she she doesn't say he's going to resign. She says we think we can convince him to this weekend, and so forth. That's just
23:27designed to put more pressure on it. But unless Joe and Jill and Hunter, and Joe's sister, make that decision. And they're going to make it
23:39privately in a beach house, or in Wilmington, we just don't know what he's going to do.
23:47Well, a lot remains to be seen. There's definitely a lot in the air between now and the DNC, at least. And I'm sure in between there, you will come back on
23:55hopefully, and continue to discuss with me. Charles Lipson, per usual, thank you so much.
24:01It's my pleasure. The DNC is 22 blocks away from my house. So let's hope it is a calm convention.
24:10Fingers crossed for sure.
24:13Bye bye.