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00:00We go over to the Houston Texans who last year, countless people kept saying, nobody
00:08saw this coming despite the fact that if you were with us on game time decisions, you very
00:14much did hear the Texans 10 to 1 AFC South bet.
00:18And it was a product of some CJ Stroud hype, some hype around Demeco Ryans, but also the
00:24fact that that team did have a soft schedule they could take advantage of.
00:28What's even more interesting, though, is now how the conversation has shifted for the
00:32Houston Texans.
00:33They have just completely replaced the Jaguars.
00:38What I mean by that is if you look back to last year's Jacksonville team, runaway favorites,
00:42nobody in this division has a pulse.
00:45How could it not be them?
00:46Best quarterback.
00:47I'm not trying to downplay the Texans, but it's pushed everyone else in the division
00:53aside.
00:55I think the best way to open this up, and I'll start with you, Donny, is do you feel
00:59the Texans are in a tier of their own when you evaluate this division?
01:05You know what?
01:06You take a look at the odds, right?
01:07Plus 105, plus 270.
01:08And then you see what you get after that.
01:10But for me, it sort of has that Buffalo Bills feel for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
01:14And the reason I say that is the It Kids last year were not the Texans.
01:18I understand you thought they would have a solid season, but for me it was like it's
01:22Jacksonville and it's probably everybody else.
01:25And it turned out, quite frankly, that it should have probably just been the Texans
01:27at the top of the heap from when we saw, like, oh, not buying in weeks three, weeks four,
01:31weeks five.
01:32Rookie quarterback.
01:33Sooner or later going to hit the wall.
01:34They never did that.
01:35So when I look at this myself, I say, you're still going to have to reach down deep.
01:37And also, you get paid a lot of money for Trevor Lawrence.
01:40We're no longer looking at Trevor Lawrence, hey, young quarterback trying to be the franchise
01:43guy.
01:44He's paid to be the franchise guy.
01:45They expect those expectations to be settled this season.
01:49So for my money, I'm trying to gauge what I saw from the Texans last year and use it
01:53towards this year.
01:54Because if it's just that upward trend, watch out.
01:56They might knock off the Chiefs.
01:58But if it's year number two, sophomore slump is not the right thing to say.
02:02But let's just not say an MVP trajectory for your quarterback and he just has a good season.
02:07Is that enough to overtake the Jacksonville Jaguars if they're on top of their game?
02:10That's what I'm trying to marry right now.
02:12But I do agree with the odds right now.
02:13Nothing that I saw last year from the Houston Texans tells me this year that they're not
02:17going for it.
02:18Everything they did in the offseason, the draft, they're going for it this year.
02:21And I like the spot that they put CJ Stroud.
02:23I agree.
02:24I have Houston as the best team in the division and it comes down to CJ Stroud.
02:27He didn't turn the football over.
02:29Only four interceptions in the regular season.
02:31And that's the main reason why I think they're the frontrunners right now.
02:35You look at Trevor Lawrence.
02:36Yeah, he got paid the money.
02:38They started eight and three.
02:40But he was turnover prone and back-to-back losses to Cleveland and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
02:45Six interceptions in both of those games.
02:48Travis Etienne was nonexistent as it related to the rushing attack.
02:52And more pressures on Doug Peterson.
02:54This team does not make the playoffs this year.
02:56I think Doug Peterson could be on his way out in regards to Jacksonville.
02:59I'm not a buyer in regards to what I saw from Trevor Lawrence last year.
03:04I know he was hurt.
03:05But again, he looked inconsistent.
03:07He did not look confident where he wanted to go with his regional progressions.
03:11And that's why I would buy into CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans as being the main frontrunners.
03:17But I'll say this.
03:18Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor for the Colts, they should be a little bit priced
03:22a little bit closer to the Jacksonville Jaguars as well.
03:25Here's kind of my thing on the Texans.
03:28And again, if you compare them to the Jaguars, the Texans did it earlier, right, in that
03:33Trevor had, it was Trevor's second season where they were able to win the division.
03:37But bringing in Doug Peterson after the Urban Meyer disaster class obviously was a big step
03:42forward.
03:43But if you look back to the Texans year, week 18, they had to go to Indianapolis and get
03:49a win.
03:50They did.
03:51And then they needed the Jaguars to lose to the Titans.
03:54Otherwise, they still would have not made the playoffs.
03:58And I don't think anybody would suggest the Houston price would be what it is if the Texans
04:03didn't make the playoffs.
04:06And that was something that was out of their control.
04:09So again, we're early out, right, fellas?
04:12Everybody here is today locking in dead set.
04:15I got you X, Y, Z.
04:17But from a price perspective, it's too strong because of the things that led us to that
04:24number.
04:25It was the performance against Cleveland, I really believe, that got us there.
04:29Again, a performance that was only made happen by a Jaguars collapse.
04:33I mean, think back to the, what is it, four or five game losing streak they had.
04:38It coincided with a Trevor injury.
04:41So if this is going to be Texans as a maybe 12-win team, then OK.
04:48But could these other teams bounce back?