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00:00Pro football today, crew back up here at the wall.
00:06Wow.
00:07Is it true that we're really doing this just to get some reps in, see if we got the positioning
00:11back down?
00:12Tell me something.
00:13Is this picked right now?
00:14Wait, who's my pick?
00:15Yeah.
00:16Yes, maybe a little Sunday morning crunch?
00:19It's possible.
00:20I think it's still clear that you two do fit much better over there than Leecey and I do,
00:25just from the eye test.
00:27But nevertheless, we go over to the Houston Texans, who last year, countless people kept
00:33saying, nobody saw this coming, despite the fact that if you were with us on game time
00:39decisions, you very much did hear the Texans 10 to one AFC South bet.
00:44And it was a product of some CJ Stroud hype, some hype around Demeco Ryans, but also the
00:49fact that that team did have a soft schedule they could take advantage of.
00:53What's even more interesting, though, is now how the conversation has shifted for the
00:57Houston Texans.
00:59They have just completely replaced the Jaguars.
01:03What I mean by that is if you look back to last year's Jacksonville team, runaway favorites,
01:08nobody in this division has a pulse.
01:10How could it not be them?
01:12Best quarterback.
01:13I'm not trying to downplay the Texans, but it's pushed everyone else in the division
01:19aside.
01:20I think the best way to open this up, and I'll start with you, Donny, is do you feel
01:24the Texans are in a tier of their own when you evaluate this division?
01:30You know what?
01:31You take a look at the odds, right?
01:32Plus 105, plus 270.
01:34And then you see what you get after that.
01:35But for me, it sort of has that Buffalo Bills feel for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
01:39And the reason I say that is the kids last year were not the Texans.
01:44Like I understand, like you thought they would have a solid season.
01:46But for me, it was like it's Jacksonville and it's probably everybody else.
01:51And it turned out, quite frankly, that it should have probably just been the Texans
01:53at the top of the heap from when we saw like, oh, not buying in weeks three, weeks four,
01:56weeks five.
01:57Rookie quarterback.
01:58Sooner or later, we're going to hit the wall.
01:59They never did that.
02:00So when I look at this myself, I say you're still going to have to reach down deep.
02:03And also you get paid a lot of money for Trevor Lawrence.
02:06We're no longer looking at Trevor Lawrence.
02:07Hey, young quarterback trying to be the franchise guy.
02:09He's paid to be the franchise guy.
02:11They expect those expectations to be settled this season.
02:14So for my money, I'm trying to gauge what I saw from the Texans last year and use it
02:19towards this year.
02:20Because if it's just that upward trend, watch out.
02:22They might knock off the Chiefs.
02:23But if it's year number two, sophomore slump is not the right thing to say.
02:27But let's just not say an MVP trajectory for your quarterback.
02:30And he just has a good season.
02:32Is that enough to overtake the Jacksonville Jaguars if they're on top of their game?
02:36That's what I'm trying to marry right now.
02:37But I do agree with the odds right now.
02:39Nothing that I saw last year from the Houston Texans tells me this year that they're not
02:42going for it.
02:43Everything they did in the offseason, the draft, they're going for it this year.
02:46And I like the spot that they put CJ Stroud.
02:48I agree.
02:49I have Houston as the best team in the division.
02:51And it comes down to CJ Stroud.
02:53He didn't turn the football over.
02:54Only four interceptions in the regular season.
02:57And that's the main reason why I think they're the frontrunners right now.
03:00You look at Trevor Lawrence.
03:01Yeah, he got paid the money.
03:04They started eight and three.
03:05But he was turnover prone and back-to-back losses to Cleveland and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
03:10Six interceptions in both of those games.
03:13Travis Etienne was nonexistent as it related to the rushing attack.
03:17And more pressures on Doug Peterson.
03:19This team does not make the playoffs this year.
03:21I think Doug Peterson could be on his way out in regards to Jacksonville.
03:25I'm not a buyer in regards to what I saw from Trevor Lawrence last year.
03:29I know he was hurt.
03:31But again, he looked inconsistent.
03:33He did not look confident where he wanted to go with his regional progressions.
03:37And that's why I would buy into CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans as being the main frontrunners.
03:42But I'll say this.
03:43Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor for the Colts, they should be a little bit priced
03:47a little bit closer to the Jacksonville Jaguars as well.
03:51Here's kind of my thing on the Texans.
03:54And again, if you compare them to the Jaguars, the Texans did it earlier, right, in that
03:59Trevor had, it was Trevor's second season where they were able to win the division.
04:03But bringing in Doug Peterson after the Urban Meyer disaster class obviously was a big step
04:07forward.
04:08But if you look back to the Texans year, week 18, they had to go to Indianapolis and get
04:14a win.
04:15They did.
04:16And then they needed the Jaguars to lose to the Titans.
04:20Otherwise, they still would have not made the playoffs.
04:23And I don't think anybody would suggest the Houston price would be what it is if the Texans
04:29didn't make the playoffs.
04:31And that was something that was out of their control.
04:35So again, we're early out, right, fellas?
04:39Cleveland here is today locking in dead set.
04:41I got you X, Y, Z.
04:42But from a price perspective, it's too strong because of the things that led us to that
04:49number.
04:50It was the performance against Cleveland, I really believe, that got us there.
04:54Again, a performance that was only made happen by a Jaguars collapse.
04:58I mean, think back to the, what is it, four or five game losing streak they had.
05:04It coincided with a Trevor injury.
05:06So if this is going to be Texans as a maybe 12-win team, then okay.
05:13But could these other teams bounce back?
05:16Or could for the first time in a while, we talk about the AFC South as a multi-playoff
05:22division?
05:23We'll get to the Jags, the Colts, and the Titans next.
05:25It's Sports Critic Pro Football Today.
05:27We are back with you.
05:29It is Pro Football Today.
05:31An early look ahead with a discussion around every single team in this league.
05:38Before you know it, we will be together week one, breaking down the slate.
05:43And before that, we'll have to make some preseason predictions.
05:47And right now, the Texans are lined up as the favorites in the South.
05:50And I do think that there is a compelling case to be made that the Texans make another
05:55leap forward and separate from the division.
05:58And that's totally fair.
05:59My question then would be, can Jacksonville or Indianapolis, far more than Tennessee,
06:04we'll touch on them a bit.
06:06But could Jacksonville or Indianapolis, Joe, be a double-digit playoff team?
06:13And all of a sudden, we look at the South as not a weak division, but a division with
06:17some depth.
06:18No, I think they can.
06:19I think both teams can.
06:20Again, we talked about Jacksonville and how they got away from the rushing attack with
06:24Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne.
06:26They were nonexistent over the last five games of the regular season.
06:30One-dimensional, relying solely on the passing attack and Trevor Lawrence.
06:34If they get back to more balance and more strong offensive line play, they can be an
06:3911 or a 12-win football team, especially when they have leads.
06:43They had the lead in Tennessee at the end of that game, and they let Tennessee take
06:48over.
06:49So again, you need, especially in terms of playoff environments, you need to be able
06:54to run the football, especially on the road or on a neutral field in a Super Bowl type
06:59of situation.
07:00So I think Jacksonville, and with Jonathan Taylor, we saw exactly what he was able to
07:04do, right?
07:05I mean, he could take games over single-handedly, take the pressure off for Anthony Richardson.
07:10So I think Shane Steichen did a fantastic job.
07:14If Anthony Richardson could develop, they could be a 10-win football team this year,
07:18Donny.
07:19That's the problem I'm going to run into now, because I didn't get that, you know, even
07:21analysis.
07:22I do love to have seen from Richardson throughout that season last year, getting banged up.
07:25The one thing that I do love is he's going to take off, and he won his rushing props.
07:29Boy, I was grabbing left and right to start that season.
07:31Touchdown props, over 50 yards props.
07:33I mean, he was the man, but the question is, you can't just do that.
07:37You can't lower your shoulder into linebackers.
07:39You can't run seven, eight, nine times design per game anymore in the NFL and make it through
07:43a 17-game schedule.
07:45And correct me if I'm wrong.
07:46Did it feel like he left every single game he started, which again, leads you up to bleed,
07:50So it's to a tiger by low, where you say, like, you know, I don't know if he could stay
07:53healthy.
07:54He stayed healthy last year.
07:55Completely different scenario.
07:56This is a guy that you look at him as a specimen that says, you know what?
07:59When he's running right, he is absolutely phenomenal, and nobody can stop him.
08:03What stops him?
08:04Injuries here.
08:05So how do you sort of hold him back, but still have him be effective?
08:08That's going to be the problem with me.
08:09There's no doubt my mom, they're going to be running the football, the quarterback and
08:12the running back.
08:13Absolutely sensational.
08:14I'm just not trusting the fact that I can get a full 17 games out of Richardson, and
08:18you can't lean back on like a Gardner Minshew.
08:20It's going to be Joe Flacco at like, I don't know, 48 years old.
08:23It feels like at this point, that's my issue.
08:26So it's a good point, though, with Richardson, because that style of play.
08:32The run first quarterback.
08:33Oh, they're going to get injured at a moment's notice, and that's like they're not always
08:38that injured.
08:39Right.
08:40Like again, Lamar Burrow is one more injury prone than the other, maybe.
08:43And then the answer is probably Burrow.
08:46Shane last year, though, absolutely did have some injury issues.
08:49But man, are people excited about the player?
08:53And for me, more importantly, I'm excited about the coach.
08:56I knew it wasn't going to go this way, but I thought Shane Stiketon was very clearly
09:01coach of the year.
09:02I know Stefanski, and I think he was a fine winner with the ups and downs that they went
09:06through.
09:07But, you know, a lot of people were talking about Demeko Ryans because they won the division.
09:12To me, that's more Stroud, Bobby Slowick.
09:15I just thought what Stiketon was able to get out of Gardner Minshew was absolutely
09:21incredible.
09:22So it's on the board that Anthony Richardson is a star type of guy in this league.
09:28And that's the thing.
09:29We always talk about the quarterback position first and rightfully so.
09:33So CJ is already a star.
09:35Richardson has that potential.
09:37How do we evaluate newly paid Trevor Lawrence?
09:40Trevor Lawrence, of these guys, you talk about pedigree, is supposed to be the guy.
09:45He had a stretch of football where it felt like that was happening.
09:49Again, last year was really, really messy.
09:53They are a team, Donnie.
09:54It might come down to just schedule spots more than anything else.
09:58But I've not given up on the idea that the Jaguars are a playoff caliber team in this
10:04conference.
10:05No, and they should be a playoff team.
10:06No question about it.
10:07You take a look at a lot of players.
10:08Good young talent included.
10:09He's one of the best pass rushers in the NFL in defense.
10:11A decent secondary backing him up.
10:13But you're just taking a look at Trevor Lawrence taking that next step from, yeah, I think
10:17I'm going to be a good young football player, too.
10:18I'm being paid like a franchise guy.
10:20Now it's time to perform.
10:21Now, did it help that you lose Calvin Ridley?
10:23No.
10:24But Davis Kirk and Thomas Jr. out there on the outside, they should be fine at this point.
10:28And also, you're looking for a quarterback.
10:30We're not going to give Josh Allen any excuses this year in Buffalo, right?
10:34We're not going to say, oh, you know what?
10:35He lost his number one.
10:36It's a shame he missed the playoffs.
10:37Maybe they'll get him a number one.
10:38That's not the case here.
10:39When you are paid to be a top flight quarterback, and I'm not talking about like, hey, they
10:43gave him a nice contract.
10:44They gave him one of the biggest contracts in the history of the NFL.
10:47He's supposed to perform.
10:48I'm not giving up on them, per se, where I don't think they can win the division because
10:51I think they do.
10:52They should be a playoff team.
10:54If they're not, change is good.
10:56The head coach is gone.
10:57They don't make the playoffs this year.
10:58I agree.
10:59One and five down the stretch.
11:00One and five.
11:01They started eating three.
11:02They were walking through the motions.
11:03Dan?
11:05So, but it did line up with Trevor getting injured.
11:08Yeah, but again, he was in those games.
11:10He threw three interceptions against Cleveland.
11:13They got absolutely abused by Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield in that game.
11:18They completely no-showed.
11:20And I understand.
11:21Where was the rushing attack?
11:22So it's part of Trevor Lawrence.
11:25It's part on Doug Peterson and the offensive star.
11:28But again, they didn't rely.
11:31They did not try to win games.
11:33It's like they walked through the motions, laid up each and every week until they got
11:37to the final regular season game.
11:39It was a shootout.
11:41And Trevor Lawrence could not out-duel Will Levis on the road.
11:44And that is the biggest thing.
11:46Dan, how many shots inside the goal line?
11:48Look, think about it.
11:49How many shots?
11:50Five?
11:51No, no, no.
11:52Six?
11:53It was bad.
11:54It was bad.
11:55I'm not here to tell you, whoa, he did a great job.
11:56No.
11:57Yeah.
11:58I just think sometimes it's, and again, we're early in the process.
11:59Right?
12:00What was the last thing we saw from Jacksonville?
12:01Terrible.
12:03And if we then eliminate, they were an eight and three football team going to try and make
12:06a push for the one seat at a moment there.
12:09That's where it gets really interesting.
12:10Just so we don't skip over Tennessee.
12:12Even if you want to make an argument, it's worthy to skip over them.
12:16They feel like one of the weirdest teams in the league, right?
12:18Vrabel gone.
12:19Didn't get a job.
12:21Levis in.
12:23I don't know.
12:24He's not a first round pick, but he's not some fifth round pick.
12:26They obviously think he has some chops.
12:28They brought Calvin Ridley in.
12:30You pair him with Hopkins who showed he still certainly has a level of juice.
12:34Again, the idea is they're definitely the worst team in the division.
12:38I think the question is, Don, are they a terrible football team?
12:42No, they're not a terrible football team.
12:43And I like the fact that we're talking about the Titans because they're supposed to be
12:46last place.
12:47Then you go, okay, if I get a decent quarterback here out of Will Levis and he starts to mature,
12:51I got a decent tight end, but really good wide receiving core.
12:54It's Calvin Ridley, it's Hopkins and Boyd comes over from the Cincinnati Bengals.
12:58And then you get Pollard over from the Dallas Cowboys.
13:00That should be formidable.
13:01But again, it's predicated on Levis taking that next step.
13:04So you're right.
13:05It's one of those teams that you feel like if you weren't really doing your homework
13:08on the Titans and say, let me just take generalities, boy, they're going to stink next year.
13:12And quite frankly, they might.
13:13But at the same time, I'm going to look at them in certain football games and say, once
13:17again, if Will Levis can progress, hey, this offense isn't too bad.
13:21Maybe this defense gets a going.
13:22Maybe they just needed a regime, a regime change at this point, because I like what
13:25I see.
13:26And I think they're going to be, dare I say, a sneaky bet on just say, forget about the
13:31team itself, individual players like when we're talking about Sunday here, going over
13:35some of those crunch players, who's having really 40 and a half yard.
13:38What are you going to give me that Calvin Ridley for the end?
13:40Because you're going to be able to buy low on some of these guys.
13:42It's possible.
13:43I'm still not sold on Will Levis.
13:45What is the offensive identity?
13:46There's certainly a different rushing attack now with Tajay Spears and Tony Pollard than
13:51they what they had last year with Derrick Henry, right?
13:53They're not going to be able to line it up and get those two or three tough yards in
13:58regards to, you know, big matchup.
14:00So schedule is difficult.
14:02They play Green Bay.
14:04They play the Bills.
14:05They play the Dolphins.
14:06I mean, that's not going to be easy.
14:08Cincinnati is on there as well, along with the divisional opponents.
14:12I think there are four win football team.
14:14I'm not a buyer of Will Levis.
14:16I thought it was a bust.
14:17I think Will Levis and you know how I feel about Drake May, quarterbacks win ballgames
14:22in the NFL.
14:23I'm selling Tennessee this year.
14:25Yeah, look, I will say Will Levis, certainly not a guy that I was high on coming in.
14:30He had some moments last year, right?
14:32Victory over Miami, right?
14:34What a crazy thing.
14:35One of the best pro days we've ever seen, too.
14:37Wow.
14:38Well, him and Malik Willis.
14:39I mean, let's start that band back up.
14:42The South is going to be fun.