Bob Ward, pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss a new AARP poll that found former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden in a poll taken after the historic June presidential debate.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is pollster Bob Ward with the firm Fabrizio Ward.
00:10Bob, thanks so much for coming on. Thanks for having me. The AARP released a new poll post-debate between former President Donald Trump,
00:19current President Joe Biden, and they are numbers coming out of Wisconsin. So take it away. What stuck out to you?
00:27Well, so here we are just under four months from the election. We surveyed voters in Wisconsin immediately after the debate through last week,
00:38and we're seeing that Donald Trump has a six-point lead over Joe Biden in the state, which I think is considerably higher from the polling averages we saw
00:50pre-debate, which Trump had maybe a one- or two-point lead in the state. But on the Senate race side, incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin has a
01:02five-point lead over her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde. So we are seeing, you know, splitting of tickets in Wisconsin, as we've seen in
01:13other swing states. I think the big story in Wisconsin is whether or not young voters are going to show up in the numbers that they have in
01:26previous elections. We ask a question in this survey about how motivated you are to vote, and it's from a zero-to-10 scale. And when you compare
01:36voters under the age of 50 to voters over the age of 50, there's about a 21-point gap of those who say, 10 out of 10, I'm going to be, I am motivated to vote
01:45this election. We've seen this in other places, in other swing states. This lack of motivation really spells problems, potentially, for the Democrats.
01:59So even though Tammy Baldwin is ahead, if a key base of the Democratic constituency, that is, younger voters, don't show up, her five-point lead
02:10could quickly evaporate. And it's key for both the presidential candidates and the Senate candidates to be focused on those older voters who are
02:22going to show up. And they can get them by talking about issues that are important to them.
02:29So let's talk about the issues that are important to them, because what I'm hearing from you is that older voters are going to matter, and they're going to
02:36matter more this election, because they're the ones hitting the polls come November. So what are those big issues that they care about most?
02:46Well, I think if you were to sum it up, it's the economy. We look at politics today, and yes, there are cultural issues that are important to both sides of
02:55the political, either side of the political spectrum. Among Republicans in Wisconsin, as in other places, immigration and border security are really
03:04high. Among Democrats in Wisconsin, you see issues like threats to democracy, abortion, and reproductive rights being very high. But across the
03:14political spectrum, you see issues like the economy, economy jobs, inflation. I'll throw Social Security in there, since we're talking about older voters,
03:23because that's a big issue for them. All of these issues netted up are bigger than those cultural issues. And so when you look at, take voters 65 and older,
03:35what I'll call seniors, in Wisconsin, the presidential race is tied. In the Senate race, Tammy Baldwin's up by two points. Seniors are a competitive voting block
03:48that all campaigns need to focus on. So talking about issues that are economic focused, like Social Security, are really important to get those voters to pay
03:59attention to your campaign.
04:00That's a really interesting step. And I had that written down, too, that voters older than 65 are tied in Wisconsin when it comes to Donald Trump and Joe
04:09Biden. Do you think that is because, do they have a little more sympathy or understand or give Biden a little bit more of a break when it comes to his age and mental
04:19fitness?
04:21Well, I think we've seen in not just Wisconsin, but in other battleground states that we've polled, today's 65 plus voters tend to be more liberal than
04:36conservative, lean more Democrat than Republican. That differs from what we've seen in elections past. And I don't know if it's necessarily a sympathy factor
04:47with Joe Biden, more so than a demographic factor. There's only five years of baby boomers who are not age 65 and older. These are the people who came politically
04:57aware in the late 60s and early 70s. And so they are a little bit more Democrat leaning than voters 65 plus have been in previous elections. So I think their issues
05:11are really focused on what's impacting me. So we ask a question in the survey about, you know, are you worried about your personal financial situation?
05:21And, you know, the answer is yes, 60% of Wisconsin voters are worried about their personal financial situation. And so when I'm talking about the top issues being
05:31inflation, rising prices, the economy and jobs and social security, I think these are the things that are paramount in voters minds. And, you know, I think I think
05:43they are competitive from a political standpoint. If you're talking about those issues and can address those concerns, you're going to have an edge as a
05:51candidate.
05:53By the numbers, the economy is doing better than it has been in recent years. But as we know, sentiment always lags the actual numbers. Do you think between now and then
06:03between now and November, rather, sentiment will change when it comes to the economy? Voters will feel more favorably to Biden because they're saying, hey, OK, my wallet
06:12feels a little better. These kitchen table items are a little bit cheaper.
06:17Yeah. So, I mean, let's think about the metrics when we say the economy is better. Oftentimes we look at the, you know, the stock market, the employment rate,
06:25things like that. If you think about older voters, many of whom are retired, in this survey in Wisconsin voters, just a data point to spot a light on this, you have
06:39to look at the data. I mean, just make sure I get it right. Sixty four percent of voters, 50 plus, say that Social Security either is or will play a major role in their
06:51future, in their retirement. These are folks who are not really thinking, you know, less about sort of the stock market and more about the check that comes in the mail
07:02and will it be there for me? And so, yes, I think there is time for the environment to change. We've got, like I said, just under four months to the election. And so that's
07:13certainly a possibility. But older voters are, you know, many of them fixed income and are pretty much know their financial situation. They know how much things cost at the
07:25grocery store. They know how much the rent or the mortgage is, you know, for those who are paying it. So I think, you know, those types of fundamentals, fundamentals, you know, are not
07:36likely to change between now and the election unless there's a dramatic change in, you know, for example, everyday prices of goods.
07:45I do now want to pivot to that Senate race you're talking about, because last time we talked, you said down ballot races were flying under the radar because you said you've got an incumbent president
07:55and a former president going head to head in a rematch. So I think it's taking a lot of the oxygen out of our political space. Now we have incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin beating her Republican
08:06challenger. But as support wanes for President Biden, do you see that race really tightening and do you see it becoming a toss up come November?
08:17It could. It really could. And I alluded to this earlier. The lack of motivation among a key constituent of, you know, Democratic politicians are younger voters.
08:32And they support Tammy Baldwin, you know, a lot more than they support President Biden. It is unusual for a Senate race to lead turnout in a presidential election year.
08:46So if you're not enthusiastic about who's at the top of the ticket, even though you may like the person running for Senate, there is a chance you may stay home.
08:55And that is a real threat to a lot of the down ballot Democrats running this year. So can that change? Absolutely. You know, there's chaos in Washington right now about what's going to happen. Right.
09:12So, you know, thing big things can change. But the bottom line is folks like Tammy Baldwin and other Democrats running for office really need to focus on a ground game to get voters out who, you know, they think might ordinarily turn out in a presidential year. This year they may not.
09:31When you're thinking about recent elections starting in 2016, Democrats were excited to vote for Hillary Clinton because she was first woman, amongst other things. People were intrigued by Donald Trump because he wasn't the typical politician. Then 2020, there was more enthusiasm there. Is it unusual to see this lack of enthusiasm this close to an election?
09:55Yeah. And the lack of enthusiasm really is focused at younger voters. Older voters are very enthusiastic, whether they're Democrat or Republican. They're paying attention. We asked if people watch the debate, for example, on the 27th. 75 percent of voters, 50 plus, watched the debate. Only 50 percent of voters under 50 did.
10:19So it is that is not unusual per se. Older voters typically are more engaged. What we're seeing this year is if you look at Joe Biden's favorability rating, his job approval rating among these younger voters, he is getting the worst ratings from an age group that is the most Democratic.
10:45He's getting worse ratings among younger voters than some of the more Republican age groups like voters 50 to 64. That is unusual. And that is one of the reasons why it's a real question mark as to how many of these voters turn out. And that should be a real concern for Democrats down ticket.
11:05You alluded to this earlier, but there is disarray in Washington right now. Democrats are behind closed doors, reportedly panicked in public, seemingly nudging President Biden to step aside. What are you looking out for between now and November?
11:21Well, I mean, as a survey researcher, I want to know who the candidates are going to be, who the presidential candidates are going to be, who the vice presidential candidates are going to be. And so if that changes, obviously, it's, you know, really throws things up in the air and a lot of polling will be done if something like that happens.
11:41So that is a big X factor that really is above my pay grade as to what's going to happen. But it would absolutely shake things up in a race. And we'd have to start over to a certain degree on what 2024 is all about.
11:57And how much do you think the debate shook things up in this race? Because people were unenthusiastic. Everything seemed baked in. We saw this race four years ago. And it seems like now there's a lot more conversations. Do you think this shook, the debate shook things up in voters' minds?
12:17I think it probably to a lesser extent than what it shook things up in sort of the political class of Washington's minds. I think voters are more focused on what impacts them, the pocketbook issues, the things that are important in their day to day lives. And so I think probably the debate had a lesser impact on that.
12:46But if you are a partisan on either side, you know, certainly the debate had had an impact. If you're a Republican, you're probably feeling pretty good post-debate. If you're a Democrat, you know, probably not so good.
12:57Bob Ward, I appreciate the conversation. I hope to have more of them as the situation develops between now and November. Thank you so much for joining me.
13:06Thank you. Appreciate it.
13:16Thank you.