Hurricane Expert, Alex DaSilva, has the latest on the Beryl eye path and what to expect when the storm approaches the Texas coast.
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00:00The first landfalling hurricane of the year in the U.S. is a big one in terms of impacts and at least in terms of attention.
00:07There's a lot of buzz about this over the next day or two. So what's the status of Burl right now?
00:12Well right now the storm just emerged out into the western Gulf of Mexico.
00:16The storm is a little disheveled right now as it's dealing with a little bit of wind shear right now.
00:20So it has dropped down to tropical storm status but looks like this is going to be only temporary
00:25as we expect the storm to strengthen up as it makes its way towards the Texas coast.
00:29So overall the mechanics of the storm, a lot of eyes over the past week and rightfully so, Alex,
00:34have been on this ridge of high pressure aloft. How has that evolved?
00:38It is drifting east a little bit. Is it going to allow this to come straight north or how is it going to evolve here?
00:44We've been talking about this this entire week that we were concerned that if this area of high pressure
00:49backs away a little bit and the storm is a little stronger than what we anticipated
00:53and which it was once it got into the southwestern Gulf,
00:56it can actually be pulled to the north towards the Texas coast.
00:59We've been very concerned about this potential to happen and it looks like it is going to happen.
01:03The storm is going to be pulled to the north by an area of low pressure dipping into Texas
01:09and the storm is expected to make that turn arriving on the Texas coast somewhere around midday Monday.
01:15And we have a more zoomed in view here. You mentioned Matagorda Bay is the likely location of landfall.
01:22So areas just northeast of there, how will their impacts vary from those just to the south?
01:27The track is going to matter so much. Areas just to the north of that landfall point
01:31is going to deal with the most storm surge. So we're very concerned about Matagorda Bay, Port Lavaca.
01:36These areas I think are going to be under the gun for the most severe storm surge.
01:40Right now we're thinking three to six feet above normally dry ground.
01:43So please, if you're out there along any of these coastal areas,
01:46heat evacuation orders if they're given for these coastline areas.
01:50And here we have that six foot plus storm surge range around that area.
01:55And for those around Houston and Galveston, what will our biggest flood concern be?
02:00Will it be tied to the storm surge or rain?
02:02I think it's going to be a little of both. We have to watch the storm track very carefully.
02:06It could inch a little further north towards Galveston Bay,
02:09in which case the storm surge numbers would have to come up.
02:11But I think a lot of it is going to be very heavy rainfall.
02:14You can see here we're forecasting around three to six to four to eight inches around the Houston area.
02:19So that's going to cause plenty of flooding.
02:21And then we're also going to have the tidal flooding as well from the storm surge.
02:24And we're looking at the arrival time of that rain around Galveston.
02:27Sometimes the squiggly lines, they're a little chaotic at first glance,
02:30but they're very meaningful and you can connect the dots here from around Galveston,
02:332 p.m. Sunday for the arrival time of the rain, and it increases after that time.
02:38Yeah.
02:39All right. Well, Alex DaSilva, we appreciate all your insight from the wind to the rain,
02:43the storm surge, all really good information here.
02:46So I know you're hard at work. So thanks again, Alex.
02:48We certainly appreciate it.