AFC East Analysis | Futures Bets | Expectations for NY Jets
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00:00back with you here. It's pro football today and we are going
00:07to go through all eight divisions. We begin as most do
00:11with the AFC East and forgive me, Bills and Dolphins fans
00:16while I am sure you feel that you should be the first
00:20discussed. We have to begin with the New York Jets. A season
00:25last year that is at times impossible to wrap your head
00:29around. All of these expectations, the hope and
00:32belief of Aaron Rodgers gone in a moment's notice. The torn
00:38Achilles and was it his first third play and he was gone. At
00:46times I forget that they won that football game on a Monday
00:49night against the Buffalo Bills and then Rodgers proceeded to
00:55influence the Jets all year despite not playing in another
00:59game saying, Oh, I'll be back. No, don't get any other
01:02upgrades. They trotted Zach Wilson out again. He proceeded
01:05to continue to be the worst starting quarterback in
01:08football. Then Tim Boyle got a chance to make Zach Wilson look
01:12good and then we've entered into this offseason and they're
01:16saying Rodgers is saying all the right things and then
01:19Rodgers is off on retreats again, which kind of goes the
01:23other way. What's interesting is the Jets are actually in front
01:26of the Miami Dolphins as it pertains to status within the
01:30AFC East market. Bills 165, Jets 185, Dolphins plus 210.
01:36Patriots are at a name your price kind of style. How do you
01:39feel right now Joe about the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers? I
01:42think they're in complete disarray and this is you know
01:44take Aaron Rodgers out of it. Just seeing how they handled
01:47last season in regards to Zach Wilson and the quarterback
01:50situation. Robert Salah, I think is dead man walking and that is
01:54a big cause of concern for the Jets big picture, right? Even
01:56if Aaron Rodgers is is healthy, let's say 95% coming off the
02:01ACL. I don't know if they have continuity as it relates to the
02:04offensive line. I don't think there's any continuity as it
02:07relates to Aaron Rodgers, the new additions of Mike Williams,
02:11Garrett Wilson now and and just expecting the New York Jets to
02:14be a 10 or an 11 win football team. I just don't see it. I
02:18don't understand how they could price forget the Jets ahead of
02:22the Miami Dolphins. How do you have them ahead of the
02:25Cleveland Browns at $10 cheaper? The Cleveland Browns
02:29are 20 to one and the Jets are 10 to one. It's ridiculous just
02:33to win the AFC. I do not see it again. Aaron Rodgers has shown
02:37it's Aaron Rodgers and everybody else and again if you
02:40wanna be the leader of that team, you'd be in OTAs. You'd
02:43be in mandatory mini camp. He's not and that just shows you
02:46where what he believes in this team big picture. I think there
02:49are seven win football team at best Donnie. Here's the issue
02:52that we're gonna run up against, right? Because you
02:54take a look at the Jets last year and all we said all year
02:56long was, boy, if they could get not good clay, competent
02:59quarterback play, they're a playoff team. Now, we think
03:02we're gonna get a competent quarterback team here with
03:04Aaron Rodgers but the expectations now are back to
03:06being sky high because remember last year is like, hey, look at
03:08this. Jets running to the Super Bowl. You check the sports
03:10book. Wait a second. Nine and a half wins in a 17-game season.
03:13That doesn't sound like a Super Bowl team to me and yes, the
03:15division is going to be something but also let's key in
03:18on what actually took place last year guys. Aaron Rodgers
03:21ran that franchise. He gets hurt and he goes, you know what?
03:23I'm gonna be back. Don't you dare sign another guy to take
03:25this team who might make the playoffs and make me look bad
03:28in the next season and then my favorite one was the final week
03:30of the season. Some guy just trying to earn a living. Aaron's
03:33like, throw that guy off the team here. I wanna throw slant
03:35passes in practice this week and then saying I had no idea.
03:37Then in the offseason, oh, is everybody gonna come back? Oh,
03:40Aaron okayed everybody to come back. So now, how does he repay
03:43them? Mandatory OTAs. I'm going to Egypt. He went to Egypt
03:46because he said like, oh, look, wires got crossed at this
03:49point. What that means is he runs that locker room what he
03:52says goes. If he doesn't like what's going on, he's going to
03:54make those changes. It'll be interesting to see how it plays
03:56out but I am fighting with myself a little bit with the
03:58Jets because again, just decent quarterback play probably gets
04:03them ten wins and they're gonna get that if he stays healthy.
04:06That is the big part of it that I think last year, what
04:11happened to Rodgers, I think it is fair to call kind of a freak
04:14accident. I know the age is there but just because you're
04:1740 does not mean that you're Achilles pops at a moment's
04:20notice. However, I would say the odds are against Rodgers
04:25finishing a season fully healthy. We didn't watch that
04:29play out. We know that there are players who you can look at
04:33and go, oh, they're not gonna stay healthy. You have to Kawhi
04:35Leonard in the NBA is always the example I go to when people
04:38like, oh, if only Kawhi stayed healthy. Well, why were you
04:41betting on something that's just not going to happen? So, for
04:45Rodgers, my wonder with the Jets is, I think I'll get eight
04:50great weeks, right? And then, does he get injured at week
04:53nine, ten? Is he back by week fourteen? Can they stay above
04:56water? In the meantime, those all become the questions around
05:01the New York Jets. The thing that I think has me now pushing
05:05away, I don't know if you guys remember but we kinda did a a
05:08show in the in between of the conference championship games
05:11in the Super Bowl and at the time, I mentioned the Jets as
05:14an interesting by low spot. Well, I can't make that
05:18argument anymore cuz it's no longer by low. They're higher.
05:21They have a better odds to make the playoffs this coming season
05:24than they did last year. We're talking nearly minus 170 to make
05:27the postseason, Joe. There's now more optimism around the Jets.
05:31Again, this year than last year and that's where I get thrown
05:35off. I do too and it's ridiculous in my opinion. I'll
05:38just say this. His last season in Green Bay, twenty-six
05:42touchdowns, twelve interceptions. He cost his team
05:45an opportunity by losing to the Detroit Lions at a playoff
05:49appearance. So again, expecting him to come in off a major
05:54injury. Hit the ground running and throw for thirty touchdowns
05:57in this offense. I just don't see it and then you talk about
06:00the other playmakers. When's Mike Williams been healthy for
06:03a complete season? We're expecting Mike Williams to be
06:06the savior with Garrett Wilson as well and oh by the way,
06:08Breece Hall is just going to run for 1500 yards. He's
06:12dealing with injuries as well and then that defense is
06:15supposed to carry them. The defense couldn't carry them
06:18last year. Now, you can blame Zach Wilson. You can blame
06:20Robert Salah but it's still the coaching staff. If Aaron
06:23Rogers is not happy in the middle part of the season and
06:26they start, let's say two and five, the wheels are going to
06:29come off in regards to the team and if Aaron is not happy,
06:33that's it. It is a dead bet in my opinion. I'm going under. I
06:37do not see how they get to ten or eleven wins. I still put the
06:40Dolphins and Bills above them in the division. We'll see how
06:43it plays out but that's why I'm betting under. And by the way,
06:46just quickly there, the opening game at San Francisco, you want
06:49to test out that Achilles. You want to test out that
06:51questionable offensive line. You're going to get that week
06:53number one but it'll be fascinating and also, the
06:55eastern, the eastern division, it's not as good as it was last
06:58year. Some of those teams have taken a slight step back so it
07:01might help them a little bit. That is where we will turn our
07:05attention. Even if you are high on the Jets, how does it line
07:08up relative to a Bills team that looked dead in the water
07:13and then left another great opportunity on the table. A
07:17Dolphins team who couldn't beat anyone with a pulse other than
07:20Dallas. We'll get to it all on Pro Football today. Closing out
07:24the conversation around the AFC East. While we did give the
07:27Jets a lot of time, I think they're a very polarizing group
07:30but the same could be said for Buffalo or Miami. Both teams
07:34fell short of expectations last year. The Bills were a true
07:38Super Bowl contender entering the season and while they did
07:42great to find a way to win that division again and win a
07:46playoff game, they left fans wanting more. Eliminated by the
07:50Chiefs again at home in a game where it felt like Josh Allen
07:55could have been better and it was a tough blow. Miami, guess
07:59what? Also eliminated by the Kansas City Chiefs. The
08:02difference is their offense didn't show up. It was a wild
08:05weather game but there were frustrations with the Dolphins
08:09when you pull things back to the regular season and their
08:12inability to beat and to some degree even hang with top teams
08:18in this league. So, Joe, when you look at Buffalo or Miami,
08:22maybe even if we don't worry as much about betting the AFC
08:25East, would you be interested in betting either team to win
08:29this conference outright? I would take a shot on Josh Allen
08:33and the Buffalo Bills because of Josh Allen. I think he can
08:36take a game over and he did that towards the end of the
08:38regular season when they relied on the rushing attack with
08:41James Cook and that defense. I think if that's the key for
08:44Buffalo for me, even if Keon Coleman, the youngster from
08:47Florida State doesn't start fast right away, I still think
08:50they can run it with James Cook, utilize a ball control
08:54attack with Kincaid and Dawson Knox and still rely on that
08:58defense. Even though they have some absences, they reloaded in
09:01terms of free agency and the NFL draft. I think they're
09:05going to be there. The main question for Miami, it's not
09:08offense. We know Tua, we know Waddle and Tyreek Hill can
09:12score on anyone but when you put into a cold weather
09:14environment and you're put into a situation where you have to
09:17rely on your defense, can they step up? Two games last year
09:21against Buffalo in our house with the AFC East Championship
09:25on the line. They didn't step up. They let Josh Allen run it
09:28and throw it all over us and Donnie, they were non-existent
09:31and could not shut down Pat Mahomes and Kansas City. That
09:35is the main reason why I would bet Buffalo over Miami. Miami
09:38is a very good regular season team and rightfully so. I mean
09:41they have weapons all across the board. Tua Tagovailoa did
09:43stay healthy last year but if push comes to shove, you get to
09:46the playoffs. You need to get a couple drives together and if
09:49you're just talking about the Buffalo Bills and the Miami
09:51Dolphins, probably going to trust the Buffalo Bills more
09:53than I do the Miami Dolphins at that point and it's not
09:55fair to say because last year was a prove it year for Tua.
09:58It doesn't have a contract yet. We're saying to ourselves
10:00still a prove it year for Tua once again and if I'm saying I
10:04need my quarterback to be healthy throughout the season,
10:07who do you trust more in that division? Now granted Aaron
10:09Rodgers, well, we'll see if he gets there. Who knows who's
10:11going to be the quarterback for the New England Patriots but I
10:14still have that notion of boy oh boy if it's week three and
10:16things are going well and Tua's on the sideline getting checked
10:19for a concussion, the season is over for the Miami Dolphins. I
10:22know it's an unfair bias to have there but the trustability
10:25with the Dolphins right now, I just don't have it as much as I
10:27should. I get it but for me, it it comes down to at least at
10:31this point in the conversation price point plus 750 Buffalo
10:36twelve to one Miami. Again, Buffalo is has not proven all
10:39that much more than the Dolphins and if anything to take
10:42it back to what we just said, the Jets being ten to one of the
10:45Dolphins being the twelve to one isn't necessarily something
10:48that at this point in time, I could get to. I take the chance
10:52that Tua maybe pieces this all together because I think if we
10:56removed quarterbacks, which I know you can't do, everybody
10:59would take Miami over Buffalo. We'll close this out with the
11:02New England Patriots. We're not a contender. They have the
11:04longest price to win this division by far the longest
11:07price to win the conference overall. The question is will
11:11Drake may start for this team and if that is no, which it's
11:16favored to be a no by the way minus 355 Jacoby is supposed to
11:20be your week one starter. When could we see Drake May and what
11:24would those expectations be Joe? I think it's middle of the
11:27season, maybe game eight or game nine after the maybe they
11:30start you know two and five or two and seven at that point and
11:33then you get Drake May as long as he has a grasp of the
11:36offense. I think big picture you want him prepared for year
11:39number two. What is the offensive identity Kev? That is
11:41the biggest question mark. This team did not have one last year.
11:45They relied on a an average rushing attack with Ezekiel
11:48Elliott and Romandre Stevenson and a middle of the road
11:52defense that's gotten older now. So you have to get Drake
11:55May ready as long as he has a grasp of the offense at the end
11:59of the regular season. That's it, but I think there are four
12:01win football team at best and here's the part that Joe's
12:04bring up as well. It's hard enough just to be a rookie
12:06quarterback in the NFL. How about starting at the Bengals
12:08home to the Seahawks at the Jets at the 49ers Miami Dolphins,
12:11Houston Texans at the Jaguars Jets and then you finally get
12:14the Titans Sunday, November 3rd. So if you're going to start
12:18him and say I'm going to shell shock you right away and ruin
12:20your NFL career. Good luck and try that out. Let the kids sit
12:23there. Put them in when the season is de facto over, which
12:26might be the early parts of November. How about that? How
12:28about this week 14 by hey kid you get the last month of the
12:32season. No, then we call him bust. No, I got it. All I'm
12:36saying is already then the the proof is in the pudding. If you
12:40sit, it works out. We'll see if what the Patriots do.