If that's a question you've been wondering, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva have an explanation for you.
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00:00Joining me right now is Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva.
00:05Alex, before we get into what we're going to be seeing over the next couple of days,
00:10we've been calling for a supercharged season.
00:13There's no reason to believe that it won't happen.
00:15But having said that, it's been a slow start to the hurricane season as far as getting our first named system.
00:23It has been so far, and that's not typically that unusual.
00:27The first named storm of the season is usually June 20th or so.
00:31But over the last couple of years, we've seen a lot of storms early in the season,
00:34which kind of gives the impression that we're a little bit behind schedule,
00:37when in fact, we're not really that behind schedule.
00:40And I think some of it actually has to do with some of the wildfires over Central America.
00:44Some of that smoke and dry air has made it into the Gulf of Mexico over the last couple of weeks.
00:49And actually, it looks like that that has inhibited some tropical development.
00:53Yeah, and I think there's another reason as well, Alex, excellent point.
00:56I mean, when you look at where we see development, we see development this time of year, not from the tropics,
01:02what we call homegrown development in the Gulf of Mexico, the Northwest Caribbean,
01:07and the southeast coast of the United States.
01:09But we really haven't seen the correct pattern to get this homegrown development.
01:14Yeah, we usually look for either a front or a dip in the jet stream to kind of dive south across the Gulf of Mexico
01:20and stall out either in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean.
01:24And that's usually where you see those really early season storms developing.
01:27You get a little bit of spin off the end of a front or off the bottom of a dip in the jet stream,
01:32and that's what can lead to development.
01:34So again, we look for the areas that we look for, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico,
01:38and just off the southeast coast this early in the season.
01:41I have the jet stream here. Let's play this forward here, and we'll highlight it.
01:45I know it's kind of hard to see. A couple of things we want to point out, though.
01:48You could see the yellow off the Central American coast, off the coast of Mexico.
01:54And also, Alex, that little spin, we're going to have to keep an eye on that
01:58off the southeast coast of the United States later on this week as well.
02:03Yeah, that's something we're going to have to keep an eye out for.
02:05That little vorticity spin right off the southeast coast could develop here
02:09over the next couple of days after the rain event there in Florida,
02:12but I really don't think it's going to be a big deal.
02:14It should continue to move off to the north and east.
02:17We also have to monitor the southwestern Gulf.
02:19There's what we call a big gyre forming there over Central America.
02:23That's what all those thunderstorms are there.
02:25And that's typical in the months of June and July, and also at the end of the season.
02:29You get this kind of big rotation, essentially, of thunderstorms,
02:33and stuff can kind of break off from that, and that's what can lead to development.
02:36So again, we're going to be watching the Gulf of Mexico, southwest Gulf,
02:40here over the next couple of days.
02:42All right, Accuweather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva,
02:45thanks again for joining us here on Accuweather Early.