This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 22/05/2024.
After a particularly wet couple of days, the weather will turn that much drier by Friday. The best day of the bank holiday will likely be Saturday as it turns more unsettled from Sunday from the west. However by next week, the Azores high could bring drier weather to the south and east in particular.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
After a particularly wet couple of days, the weather will turn that much drier by Friday. The best day of the bank holiday will likely be Saturday as it turns more unsettled from Sunday from the west. However by next week, the Azores high could bring drier weather to the south and east in particular.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello there. The good news is the wet weather we're seeing at the moment is
00:03 not going to last into the Bank Holiday weekend as a little change is on the way.
00:08 But the bad news is, as is fairly typical, the weather is a little bit
00:11 uncertain for Bank Holiday Monday in particular. Let's take a closer look at
00:16 the pressure pattern at the moment. I think the important things to note are
00:19 the jet stream first of all. It's a fairly meandering pattern, you can see it
00:23 pushing up to the north of the UK and round to the south of the UK as well.
00:27 That's building in this area of high pressure. It's quite a blocked pattern
00:31 basically and this area of high pressure to the east of the UK is blocking any
00:35 progress of our weather systems in from the west. So any mobility that has been
00:39 moving in from the west, any weather fronts and low pressures that have moved
00:43 in from the Atlantic, bumped into this high pressure and pivoted back around to
00:47 affect the UK. That's what's happened with this area of low
00:52 pressure that we're seeing at the moment. That's bringing the very persistent and
00:54 fairly exceptional rainfall to some areas. Over the next few days
00:59 though, we'll see that area of low pressure fill and by Saturday we'll see
01:02 a much more relaxed pressure pattern with no weather fronts or low pressure
01:07 systems at all. So Saturday is looking like the best day of the Bank Holiday
01:11 weekend. But before then, it's going to be quite a slow process for that low
01:15 pressure to fill. So through Thursday, we'll still be pivoting around to the
01:18 north and east of the UK with wet weather still pushing in from the north,
01:22 particularly across Scotland through Thursday. There's still weather warnings
01:25 in force through Thursday. The rain will slowly and continue to ease through
01:30 Thursday night into Friday morning. So by the time we get to Friday morning,
01:33 there's still be quite a lot of cloud around but it's certainly going to be
01:36 that much drier. And across the south, particularly through Thursday and into
01:40 Friday, it should be considerably drier but still fairly cloudy. In any sunshine
01:45 it won't feel too bad on Thursday and Friday in the south but widely I think
01:49 temperatures will be a little bit below par. Some showers may break out on Friday
01:54 across northern areas but compared to Wednesday and Thursday is going to be a
01:58 considerably better day. As we head into Friday evening and into the weekend, we
02:05 continue to see the weather improve. Saturday as I said looks like the best
02:08 day of the weekend. It's not going to be widespread sunshine throughout the day
02:12 but it does look like most areas should get away with a dry day with some fairly
02:16 prolonged sunny spells. However notice there is some wet weather pushing into
02:21 the east. There's a low possibility that we could see some quite heavy showers
02:24 across eastern areas by the afternoon and into early evening. But in any
02:29 sunshine, temperatures are on the rise into the low 20s across the south and
02:33 high teens across the north. But there will be a change as we head into
02:38 Saturday evening and Sunday. This wet weather across the west is a weather
02:42 front and that's going to make progress pushing across the UK through Sunday.
02:46 It won't move particularly quickly and as it does move eastwards it will become
02:51 more of a showery feature. So potentially some persistent rain to start across the
02:55 northeast on Sunday. Most areas having a fairly dry start on Sunday but showers
03:00 will break out quite widely actually on Sunday. They're not going to affect
03:05 everywhere. There will still be some sunshine between those showers. Highs of
03:09 20-21 degrees into the low 20s around average for the time of year. Fairly
03:13 warm in that sunshine but potentially some quite hefty downpours. Let's take a
03:18 look at the rainfall accumulations throughout Sunday. So as I said that
03:22 persistent rain across the northeast to start but it's further south and west
03:26 that we start to see those showers breaking out by Sunday afternoon. As you
03:29 can see most areas actually won't see any of those showers but where you do
03:33 catch one you can see there's some quite bright echoes and that could bring about
03:36 15 millimetres in around three hours. So that's enough to bring some spray on the
03:41 road to make you want to go inside if you are heading out and about on Sunday.
03:45 So it's worth keeping up with the radar through Sunday to keep an eye on those
03:49 showers. So it's fairly straightforward as we head through Saturday and Sunday.
03:54 Bit of a change to more unsettled weather on Sunday but as is often the
03:58 case by Bank Holiday Monday the weather forecast it becomes slightly less
04:03 certain. Let's take a look at what the Met Office model wants to do at this
04:07 stage. So this weather front this plume of warm air comes up from the south and
04:12 east and as this trough across Europe develops it will allow this low pressure
04:18 system to develop across the UK. Now this is quite a change from what we were
04:23 seeing yesterday in the deep dive for our Bank Holiday Monday forecast and
04:27 it's also quite a different forecast compared to other models as well. So take
04:32 a look here we've got this is the Met Office model we've got low pressure
04:34 right centred right across the UK for Bank Holiday Monday. Let's take another
04:38 look at take a closer look at another model. This is ECMWF the European
04:44 long-range model. This is the same point on the Bank Holiday Monday and we've got
04:49 a ridge of higher pressure building in and cooler air as well. You can see that
04:54 plume that develops in the Met Office model it's actually well to the east of
04:57 the UK taking with it that more unsettled weather and this would bring a
05:01 more widely showery picture. So what do we trust when the models are showing us
05:07 different things? Well we need to take a closer look at a few different things as
05:10 well. So let's take a closer look at some more stuff from our Met
05:14 Office model. We call these the postage stamps they are very small so I don't
05:19 expect you to be able to look at the detail just yet. We'll have a closer look
05:23 in a couple in just a moment. But essentially if you don't know what an
05:26 ensemble model is it's when you take the same model and you run it several times
05:31 with slightly different initial conditions starting points just to see
05:35 how that changes the forecast as you head further in time. And one thing to
05:41 note is all of these postage stamps do look quite different and when you see
05:44 things like this you think oh there is some uncertainty in the forecast not
05:47 everything is showing us the same thing but that might mean that there is a
05:51 chance of some slightly better weather than that low pressure across the UK on
05:55 Monday. So let's zoom in on a couple of those of those postage stamps. So this is
06:01 the control run this is what shows that low pressure system and you can see
06:04 these are the 24-hour rainfall accumulations through Monday and there's
06:09 some pretty wet weather in this run across the UK central areas of
06:14 England and Wales in particular seeing that wet weather. But if you look at
06:18 another member actually that's not supported by all the other members and
06:21 in this run actually the wettest weather is out to the east of the UK
06:25 similar to how that ECMWF model was showing us as well. And there's still
06:30 some rainfall across the UK but again potentially just some showers and all
06:34 those postage stamps showed somewhere either one or the other or somewhere in
06:38 between. So what can we say for the Bank Holiday Monday at this point? Well I
06:42 think the best thing to take away is that it's likely to be a showery day
06:46 probably as unsettled as it will be on Sunday with potentially some heavy and
06:51 thundery showers across eastern areas of the UK. However having said that light
06:57 winds means that it will still feel fairly warm in any sunshine so it's not
07:01 expected to be a total washout at this stage. We're still a few days away and we
07:06 will be putting out a full Bank Holiday forecast tomorrow so make sure you keep
07:10 up to date with the details on that one. So what's going to happen after the Bank
07:14 Holiday Monday and into the half term week for some of us? Well our friend the
07:19 Azores High is expected to build in. This has been a bit of a trending trend
07:24 for the past few weeks is for the Azores High to build in and
07:28 this is the most likely pressure pattern for a lot of next week. So you can see
07:32 that Azores High to the southwest of the UK and that would bring drier weather to
07:37 many southern areas but there's still some wet weather around with the jet
07:42 stream still meandering up to the north of the UK that would push low pressure
07:45 systems up to the north and west. But as it's often the case when we get between
07:50 these highs and lows there is a bit of a battle between the highs and lows
07:55 and some days one will win out over the other and there will be some days when
07:59 that low pressure is a little bit more dominant throughout next week bringing
08:03 that wetter weather more widely particularly to western areas. But there
08:07 will also be some days when that higher pressure wins out a little bit more
08:11 bringing more widely settled weather across the UK. So I think we'll be mixing
08:16 between that high and low moving in from the north and that's high building in
08:21 from the south throughout next week. But in all of these cases actually the
08:25 driest weather is still expected to be across the south and east in particular
08:30 and the wetter weather becoming in most frequently across the north and west. So
08:34 a bit of a northwest southeast split is expected for much of next week but the
08:39 best of any dry weather in the south and east and the most persistent wetter
08:43 weather in the north and west. But as I said that dry weather could push a
08:47 bit more widely across the UK and that wetter weather could also push a bit
08:51 more widely across the UK on some days but most days will be somewhere in
08:56 between these I would think. And also it's still looking fairly warm so it
09:01 will still feel fairly warm in any sunshine some further fairly mild
09:04 nights to come as well. Though before we get to next week we've still got the
09:09 back holiday to come as I said we will be putting out a full forecast tomorrow
09:13 on YouTube so make sure make sure you stay tuned for that and don't forget to
09:17 subscribe to our YouTube channel. Bye bye.