Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) mencatat realisasi penerimaan pajak pada Januari hingga Maret 2024 sebesar Rp 393,91 triliun. Angka ini terkoreksi 8,8% secara tahunan atau baru mencapai 19,81% dari target Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2024.
Menteri Keuangan, Sri Mulyani mengungkapkan kontribusi penerimaan pajak dari sektor pertambangan terkoreksi sangat dalam yakni sebesar 39,4% di kuartal I 2024. Sementara pada periode sebelumnya tercatat tumbuh positif 72,3%. Kementerian Keuangan menambahkan pemerintah akan berupaya mengelola APBN sebaik mungkin agar defisit anggaran tetap ada di target 2,29% terhadap PDB.
Namun gejolak ekonomi dan geopolitik global diakui akan menjadi faktor risiko penekan APBN khususnya dari penguatan kurs dolar Amerika dan potensi kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia. Hal itu bisa berpengaruh kepada membengkakkan subsidi energi.
Menteri Keuangan, Sri Mulyani mengungkapkan kontribusi penerimaan pajak dari sektor pertambangan terkoreksi sangat dalam yakni sebesar 39,4% di kuartal I 2024. Sementara pada periode sebelumnya tercatat tumbuh positif 72,3%. Kementerian Keuangan menambahkan pemerintah akan berupaya mengelola APBN sebaik mungkin agar defisit anggaran tetap ada di target 2,29% terhadap PDB.
Namun gejolak ekonomi dan geopolitik global diakui akan menjadi faktor risiko penekan APBN khususnya dari penguatan kurs dolar Amerika dan potensi kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia. Hal itu bisa berpengaruh kepada membengkakkan subsidi energi.
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TVTranscript
00:00Introduction
00:15Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:17Back again with me, Prasetya Wibo
00:19in the Market Review program
00:21which will discuss the issues of the Indonesian economic movement
00:23and this time we will discuss the tax sector
00:26where the country's income in the first quarter
00:29has decreased a little.
00:31What are the parameters that are causing it?
00:33Let's start the complete Market Review.
00:45The Ministry of Finance notes that the tax rate
00:47has decreased until March 2024
00:50and one of the reasons is the normalization
00:53of the national advantage commodity price
00:55so that the tax rate related to the commodity Anjelok rises.
01:03The Ministry of Finance notes that the tax rate
01:05has decreased until March 2024
01:09and one of the reasons is the normalization
01:11of the national advantage commodity price
01:13so that the tax rate related to the commodity Anjelok rises.
01:17Based on the PBN data,
01:19we in April 2024 realized the tax rate
01:21until the end of Q1 2024
01:24at 393.9 trillion rupiah
01:28or equal to 19.8% of the target set
01:31at 1,988.9 trillion rupiah.
01:37The realization value was corrected 8.8%
01:40from the same period last year
01:42which reached 431.9 trillion rupiah.
01:46The correction is in line with the decrease
01:48of a number of main taxes.
01:50For example, the body income tax
01:53with a contribution of 14.5%
01:55to the total income tax
01:57plus 29.8%.
02:01Then the significant correction is also noted
02:03by the domestic added value tax
02:05or PPNDN.
02:07The tax rate with a contribution of 22.1%
02:09to the total income tax
02:11decreased by 23.8% annually.
02:16Meanwhile, the income tax
02:18article 21 or PPH21
02:20with a contribution of 16%
02:22to the total income tax
02:24still recorded a positive growth
02:26of 25.9%.
02:29IDX Channel coverage team
02:34Yes, Mr. Mir, it's time to discuss our topic this time.
02:37The income tax for the first quarter of 2024
02:39has begun to decrease.
02:40We have been connected via Zoom
02:42with Mr. Fajri Akbar.
02:43He is a tax observer from CITA.
02:45Yes, good morning, Mr. Fajri.
02:48Good morning, sir.
02:49Greetings, sir.
02:51Alhamdulillah.
02:52Thank you for your time.
02:54This is related to the realization
02:56of the income tax in the first quarter of this year
02:58which has just accumulated
03:00around Rp393.9 trillion
03:02or decreased by 8.8% annually
03:05or at least reached 19.81%
03:08from the PPNDN target.
03:10What can you review, Mr. Fajri,
03:12related to the state's income in the first quarter?
03:15Indeed, our first quarter income
03:17has been significantly corrected.
03:21Unlike the previous years
03:23which were full of achievements,
03:25our income tax in the first quarter
03:28has been corrected by 8.8%
03:33or 8.2%
03:35if we include tax receivables
03:37and fees.
03:39If we look at the tax type,
03:42the biggest correction is
03:44the PPHB body income
03:46which has been corrected by 29.8%
03:50followed by the PPNDN income
03:52which has been corrected by 23.8%.
03:55However, I see that
03:57this tax receivables correction
03:59is only temporary
04:02in the first quarter only.
04:04And in the second, third, and fourth quarters,
04:09there is a high possibility that it will improve.
04:12However, this improvement
04:14must be supervised by the government
04:17considering the PPHB body income
04:19and PPNDN income
04:20as the main contributors
04:22of our tax receivables.
04:23If this does not improve,
04:26it will affect the budget deficit
04:28and this will affect our economy.
04:33It's interesting to see the correction
04:35from the government
04:37of our main tax receivables,
04:38the PPHB that you mentioned,
04:40because the contribution is 14.5%
04:42for the national tax receivables.
04:44So, how?
04:46What is the main factor
04:48in general if we look at the tax receivables?
04:52Are there so many companies
04:55in the water
04:56that are experiencing pressure?
04:58Or is there something else?
05:00To answer this,
05:01we need to know a little about
05:03the tax administrator.
05:05The report of the PPHB
05:08was last in April.
05:10So, the report of the PPHB
05:13was just started in May.
05:15The PROD was started in May,
05:18not in January.
05:21Which means,
05:22the PPHB income in the first quarter
05:27is a continuation of the income from last year.
05:33So, this weakness
05:35does not reflect the current corporate condition,
05:39but the corporate that last year
05:41when it experienced a correction
05:43from the weakness of the commodity price.
05:46And last year,
05:48there were many corporations
05:50that proposed what is called
05:52a downward dynamization.
05:54A downward dynamization,
05:55which is a request for a reduction of the PPHB.
05:58And this has an impact
06:00in the first quarter of 2024.
06:03And this can be proven
06:05if we look at the tax receivables
06:08in a sectoral way.
06:09Which sector?
06:11The mining sector.
06:15Yes.
06:16And for the manufacturing sector,
06:19the impact is the commodity management,
06:23such as CPO management.
06:25Therefore, I see that
06:27for the second, third, and fourth quarters,
06:30I'm sure the PPHB income
06:32will experience a correction.
06:34Okay, that's the background.
06:36Why is there a slight decrease in the first quarter?
06:39Because this is still related to Kinergy
06:42or the tax report from 2023, right?
06:45Yes, indeed.
06:46If we look at it,
06:48we can see that
06:50our windfall commodity has ended.
06:52It means that the price has normalized there.
06:55Then, how strong can this impact
06:58related to state receivables,
07:00but from the body tax
07:02related to the mining sector?
07:05Yes, indeed.
07:07If we look at it,
07:09the commodity price in 2024
07:13has actually been moderated.
07:15Okay.
07:16But if there is a decrease again,
07:21there is a high possibility
07:23that there will still be a correction
07:26in the body PPHB income.
07:28Of course, this is not what we want
07:30considering the contribution
07:32from the body PPHB
07:34is so big for our tax receivables.
07:37If this doesn't improve,
07:40it can be said that
07:42it will affect our budget deficit.
07:45That's what we don't want.
07:4814.5% is not bad
07:50if we look at the contribution
07:52to state receivables.
07:5314.5% is in a weak condition.
07:58As far as I know,
07:59it's normally above 20%.
08:01Okay.
08:02What about the potential?
08:04You said you were optimistic
08:06that it would improve in the second quarter.
08:08Does this have anything to do
08:10with the correlation in 2024?
08:13If we talk about the second quarter
08:15or the body PPHB.
08:16It all depends on
08:18the macro conditions.
08:20Especially from the commodity price
08:24and also
08:25how the external demand
08:29because we know that
08:31our exports will be
08:33in March
08:35still minus 4%
08:38and it will affect
08:40the corporations that have markets abroad.
08:43Okay.
08:44In terms of administration and policy,
08:46there will be no change
08:48so the biggest impact
08:50is from the external sector.
08:52This is the economic condition.
08:53Is it global?
08:55With the prolonged war,
08:56will it decrease demand again?
08:58Yes.
08:59Not only the war,
09:01but also the issue between
09:03the US and China.
09:05There is the
09:07French-Oring policy.
09:09Okay.
09:10Which causes the factories
09:13from China to switch to other countries
09:15like India.
09:16While China is
09:18Indonesia's largest trading partner.
09:20Correct.
09:21If China's demand decreases,
09:23it will affect the corporations in Indonesia
09:25and it will affect
09:27our corporations.
09:29Okay.
09:30What's interesting from the corporations
09:32is also the decrease
09:34or the correction that is experienced
09:36by the domestic corporations.
09:38We will discuss this in the next segment.
09:40Mr. Fadjri, we will take a short break.
09:42We will be back
09:44after the break.
09:58Thank you for joining us
10:00in Market Review.
10:01Next, we will present you
10:03the data on the decrease
10:05in taxes
10:07in the first quarter of 2024
10:09for the national industry.
10:11There is the manufacturing industry.
10:13The decrease is 13.6 percent.
10:15Then, the trading is minus 1.6 percent.
10:18In the agricultural sector,
10:20the decrease is minus 58.2 percent.
10:23For the food sector,
10:25the decrease is minus 8.2 percent.
10:27For the tax receipt
10:29in the industrial sector.
10:31Then, we will look at the tax receipt
10:33from 2023.
10:35We will compare it with 2024.
10:37Rp1,869 trillion last year.
10:41The increase is 6.4 percent
10:43compared to this year.
10:45The target is Rp1,989 trillion.
10:52Okay.
10:53We will continue our discussion
10:55with Mr. Fajri Akbar,
10:57a tax officer in CITA.
10:59Mr. Fajri, we will continue
11:01from the tax receipt
11:03in the industrial sector.
11:05The manufacturing industry
11:07has a decrease of double digit.
11:09Then, the trading is minus 1.6 percent.
11:11And, the agricultural sector
11:13has a decrease of 58.2 percent.
11:15From this,
11:17which is the dominant global factor?
11:19If we look at it,
11:21which is the dominant global factor?
11:23Which one do you think
11:25that we can distinguish?
11:27Is it the management
11:29or the PNBM?
11:31Yes.
11:33For the mining sector,
11:35it is clear.
11:37For the mining sector,
11:39it is clear because of the moderation
11:41of the commodity price.
11:43Most probably,
11:45it is due to the weakness
11:47of the PNBM.
11:49It is also due to the decrease
11:51of the commodity price.
11:53of the commodity price.
11:55As for the trading,
11:57most probably,
11:59it is due to the weakness of the PNBM.
12:01Because our PNBM,
12:03as a result,
12:05it is waiting for a minus
12:07or is contracted
12:09minus 23.8 percent.
12:11And, this is what causes the contraction
12:13of the trading sector.
12:15Alright.
12:17So, you are in conflict with some sectors
12:19that are under pressure,
12:21even though some of them continued last year,
12:23and some of them are in the current condition.
12:25How about the tax target?
12:27As we can see from the data,
12:29it is higher this year.
12:31Will it be heavy enough?
12:33Well, with the initial condition
12:35like this,
12:37with a contraction of minus 8.8 percent,
12:39with a contraction of minus 8.8 percent,
12:41there is optimism.
12:43there is optimism.
12:45I admit that it is heavy.
12:47It is heavy.
12:49So, there is an extra effort
12:51for the DJP
12:53to achieve this tax target.
12:55So, it seems that
12:57it is very likely that
12:59the DJP and the Ministry of Finance
13:01will issue one of the policies
13:03one of the policies
13:05from the HPP law
13:07that hasn't been issued yet.
13:09That's it.
13:11What is it related to?
13:13What is it related to?
13:15If we look at the policy,
13:17it is likely that it will be issued.
13:19Again, it is to increase
13:21the tax receipt this year.
13:23So, it is very likely
13:25that there is a policy
13:27from the HPP law
13:29that hasn't been issued yet.
13:31There are still some regulations
13:33that haven't been issued yet.
13:35There are still some regulations
13:37that haven't been issued yet.
13:39It is likely that it will be issued
13:41to achieve the tax target.
13:43That's it.
13:45Those are some data
13:47or analysis related to
13:49the development of tax receipts
13:51and some sectors that are under pressure
13:53in the first quarter of 2024.
13:55Let's talk about the domestic PPN.
13:57It has decreased.
13:59Yes.
14:01The contribution is 22.1%
14:03to the total tax receipts.
14:05How do you see it
14:07from the domestic PPN?
14:09The domestic PPN is unique.
14:11It is different from the domestic PPH.
14:13The domestic PPN
14:15represents the current economic condition.
14:17However,
14:19if we look at the macro data,
14:21our consumption condition is good.
14:23For example,
14:25if we look at the IKK data,
14:27the consumer confidence index,
14:29or if we look at the money-spending index,
14:31we can see that
14:33our consumption is actually still strong.
14:35However, our domestic PPN
14:37has decreased.
14:39If we look at it in detail,
14:41what has decreased
14:43is the domestic PPN.
14:45Brutally,
14:47if we look at the economic condition,
14:49it is still waiting for 5.8%.
14:51Okay.
14:53So, the impact
14:55of the domestic PPN
14:57is not the economic condition,
14:59but there are other factors.
15:01For example,
15:03the increase in the tax rate
15:05which has an impact
15:07on domestic income
15:09up to minus 23.8%.
15:11It should grow
15:13by 5.8%.
15:17Okay.
15:19There was a restitution that was done.
15:21Is this more for the body,
15:23the company, or individuals?
15:25If we look at the tax obligation related to the PPN.
15:27This restitution is more for the body.
15:29Okay.
15:31How do you see
15:33this restitution?
15:35Is it useful for anything?
15:37Is there a need
15:39for corporate action?
15:41Or maybe more for
15:43capital enhancement?
15:45So,
15:47this restitution increase
15:49is identical to the increase
15:51in the need for fresh funds from the company.
15:53So, when the company needs
15:55fresh funds,
15:57it is done by
15:59looking for a restitution or tax payment.
16:01The big possibility is
16:03why is it increasing?
16:05Why is it suddenly increasing?
16:07The big possibility is
16:09related to the increase in the cost of fund
16:11or the access to funds from the banking sector.
16:13Okay.
16:15So, when the cost of fund is increasing,
16:17what the corporation does
16:19is looking for
16:21the source of funding
16:23from the internal.
16:25One of them is the debt.
16:27One type of debt is the tax debt.
16:29So, this restitution
16:31has an impact
16:33on our tax payment.
16:35That's it.
16:37Do we need to deal with this?
16:39What strategy do we need to prepare
16:41by the special government from the tax department?
16:43We will discuss it in the next segment.
16:45We will be back in a moment.
16:47Stay tuned with us.
16:59Next, we will continue
17:01this interesting discussion
17:03with Mr. Fazri Akbar.
17:05He is a tax officer from CITA.
17:07If we look at the receivables
17:09that had a chance to decrease,
17:11there is still an impact
17:13from the year 2023
17:15related to the physical insurance,
17:17then the PPNDN
17:19or the special tax
17:21from this country.
17:23There is something that gives
17:25a kind of
17:27a signal
17:29related to the condition
17:31of the country
17:33in the first quarter of 2024.
17:35Let's talk about the strategy.
17:37What else
17:39do we need to do
17:41in order to push
17:43the receivables?
17:45Will there be
17:47an impact from the year 2023?
17:49Are we more confident?
17:51Or do we need to harmonize
17:53the policies?
17:55There are new rules
17:57from the tax sector.
17:59Yes.
18:01If we want to increase
18:03the receivables in the short term,
18:05the government must
18:07issue new policies.
18:09This was proven in the year 2022
18:11when the government increased the PPNDN
18:13or issued the PPS policy.
18:15Actually,
18:17if we look
18:19at the HPP law
18:21yesterday, there are still
18:23some regulations that have not been
18:25issued by the government.
18:27One of them is related to the tax on commerce.
18:29So,
18:31there is an opportunity
18:33from the policies that can be used
18:35by the government to increase
18:37the receivables this year.
18:39In addition to the HPP law,
18:41the government can also
18:43reduce the limit
18:45of the PPNDN.
18:47So,
18:49the PPNDN must be paid
18:51with an
18:53omset above 4.8.
18:57One of the strategies is
18:59to increase the tax receivables,
19:01the government can reduce
19:03the limit of the PPNDN.
19:05It can be 2 billion,
19:07for example.
19:09It will be able to reduce
19:11the PPND tax.
19:13The third one is
19:15from the regulations that have been issued
19:17by the government,
19:19the HPP law.
19:21It can be optimized
19:23by the government, such as
19:25the tax on natural resources, etc.
19:27And the last one,
19:29that can be done
19:31is the extra effort
19:33that the tax authorities
19:35have done,
19:37both on intensification and
19:39extensification.
19:41However, we hope
19:43that the government will be more focused
19:45on extensification.
19:47In my opinion,
19:49there are still a lot of tax subjects
19:51that are not included in our tax system.
19:53For example,
19:55those who work abroad.
19:57Correct.
19:59Can this Cortex System
20:01become a game changer later?
20:03Cortex System,
20:05one of them, yes.
20:07One of them is
20:09Risk Management.
20:11So,
20:13who will be inspected later
20:15will not be the ones who have obeyed,
20:17but those who are at high risk.
20:19Including people who have not
20:21reported SPT.
20:23For WPOP,
20:27non-employee WPOP
20:29is still quite low
20:31compared to other countries.
20:33If this CRM
20:35is implemented,
20:37those who have not reported SPT
20:39will be targeted
20:41by the tax authorities.
20:43Okay.
20:45If we look at other factors
20:47that can affect tax receivables,
20:49is there any increase in BIR
20:51by the Central Bank?
20:53Does this also affect
20:55the procurement energy?
20:57This is interesting.
20:59It's not only
21:01about BIR,
21:03but I also see
21:05Pet Fund Rate
21:07because our corporation
21:09has access to funding from abroad.
21:11Okay.
21:13When the cost of funding increases,
21:15when the accessibility
21:17of funding from the Central Bank
21:19is getting tighter,
21:21what the corporation does
21:23is to
21:25optimize
21:27internal funding.
21:29One of them is loans.
21:31One of the types of loans is
21:33tax loans.
21:35This is likely
21:37to cause
21:39a deep correction.
21:41Yes.
21:43Okay. So, those factors
21:45are not only internal
21:47and global factors,
21:49but also have an impact.
21:51Yes.
21:53Speaking of sectors,
21:55what can be expected
21:57to support the tax system in the future?
21:59Actually,
22:01if we look at it structurally,
22:03we expect
22:05from the trading sector
22:07and manufacturing sector
22:09to be able to recover.
22:11Because in the first quarter,
22:13these two sectors are still negative.
22:15Whereas, the biggest contribution
22:17from tax receivables
22:19comes from these two sectors.
22:21So, if these two sectors can't recover,
22:23our tax receivables
22:25will not recover.
22:27Yes. Tax, for example,
22:29from the side of the efforts
22:31carried out, for example,
22:33by the Ministry of Industry and others
22:35What do you think about the industry sector?
22:37Are the policies
22:39or the regulations
22:41at least pro
22:43for the industry?
22:45Yes. What is interesting
22:47is that
22:49there is a positive connection
22:51between industrialization and tax receivables.
22:53Okay.
22:55So, policies that support the industry
22:57will have a positive impact
22:59on our tax receivables.
23:01And countries with high tax ratios
23:03will have
23:05a big contribution
23:07from the manufacturing sector.
23:09So, if the government
23:11supports the manufacturing sector
23:13and industrialization,
23:15then, automatically,
23:17our tax receivables
23:19and tax receivables will increase.
23:21Okay.
23:23If we talk about the sector,
23:25what are the efforts
23:27to chase
23:29the realization
23:31of our tax receivables?
23:33Yes. As I said,
23:35whether we want it or not,
23:37the government must issue
23:39a tax policy
23:41to increase
23:43tax receivables in a short time.
23:45Hmm. Okay.
23:47Whether we want it or not, there is a new regulation.
23:49Yes. That's it. We'll wait for it.
23:51Yes.
23:53It seems like
23:55it should be like that.
23:57It should be like that.
23:59It should be like that too.
24:01If we...
24:03For identification,
24:05it might be difficult.
24:07But, if we don't want it,
24:09there will be a new regulation.
24:11Okay.
24:13Whether it's an amendment
24:15from the HPB law
24:17or other provisions.
24:19And it should be done
24:21to chase our tax receivables.
24:23Okay. Let's wait
24:25to see what kind of innovation
24:27will be supported.
24:29Okay. Mr. Fadjri, thank you so much
24:31for the amazing analysis
24:33that you've given us.
24:35Mr. Pemirsa, today, congratulations on continuing
24:37your activities. Stay healthy.
24:39Mr. Fadjri.
24:41You too. Thank you.
24:43Okay, Mr. Pemirsa. Don't leave your seat.
24:45Because we'll be back
24:47with another interesting topic where the government
24:49is chasing the realization of investment
24:51of the IKN. Market Review will be back soon.
24:57Market Review
24:59www.marketreview.com