Defisit APBN 2024 kembali terjadi di bulan Agustus 2024 yang mencapai Rp153,7 triliun. Defisit tersebut, setara dengan 0,68% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB).
Realisasi defisit tersebut masih menunjukkan moderasi perekonomian yang disumbang oleh belanja Pemerintah. Defisit terjadi akibat belanja negara yang mencapai RP1.930,7 triliun, sementara pendapatan negara hanya mencapai 1.777 triliun atau turun 2,5% secara tahunan.
Sri Mulyani berharap, realisasi belanja Pemerintah yang lebih baik dapat mendorong kinerja APBN 2024 pada akhir tahun ini. Menkeu juga memastikan, APBN akan terus didorong untuk menjaga prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.
Realisasi defisit tersebut masih menunjukkan moderasi perekonomian yang disumbang oleh belanja Pemerintah. Defisit terjadi akibat belanja negara yang mencapai RP1.930,7 triliun, sementara pendapatan negara hanya mencapai 1.777 triliun atau turun 2,5% secara tahunan.
Sri Mulyani berharap, realisasi belanja Pemerintah yang lebih baik dapat mendorong kinerja APBN 2024 pada akhir tahun ini. Menkeu juga memastikan, APBN akan terus didorong untuk menjaga prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.
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TVTranscript
00:00The program you are about to watch is a work of fiction. Any resemblance to anyone, living or dead, is coincidental and unintentional.
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:23Welcome back to IDXNL Jakarta, I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
00:26Welcome back to Market Review, where we will be talking about the economic issues in Indonesia.
00:30This time we will be talking about the increasing APBN deficit in 2024.
00:37It is said that the government is still below the target of the APBN deficit.
00:42But does this become a concern when the government's spending is increasing or decreasing?
00:49Let's start the complete Market Review.
00:53APBN Deficit in 2024
01:01The budget for state spending, or APBN, in 2024 is experiencing a deficit again in August 2024.
01:08The APBN deficit reached 153.7 trillion rupiah, or 0.68% of Bruto's domestic product.
01:16In terms of state spending, the APBN deficit reached 153.7 trillion rupiah, or 0.68% of Bruto's domestic product.
01:31It is still on track with the 2024 APBN budget.
01:37Our primary balance sheet is still in the surplus status of Rp 161.8 trillion.
01:46This is the performance at the end of August 2024.
01:52This is the statement of Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati regarding the APBN deficit in 2024 in August 2024, which was recorded to reach Rp 153.7 trillion.
02:05The deficit is equivalent to 0.68% of Bruto's domestic product.
02:11The realization of the deficit still shows the moderation of the economy contributed by government spending.
02:17The deficit occurred due to state spending reaching Rp 1930.7 trillion, while state income only reached Rp 1,777 trillion, or a decline of 2.5% annually.
02:31Sri Mulyani hopes that a better government spending realization can boost the APBN budget in 2024 at the end of this year.
02:39The Ministry of Finance also ensures that the APBN will continue to be boosted to maintain the prospects of national economic growth.
02:45From Jakarta, Harjo Padmo, IDX Journal.
02:48Good morning, Mr. Yusuf.
03:04Good morning, Mr. Pras.
03:06May peace be upon you.
03:08May peace be upon you too.
03:09Good morning, Mrs. Diana Dewi, Chairperson of KDDK Jakarta.
03:13Good morning, Mrs. Diana.
03:17Yes, hello.
03:20Okay, it seems like you are still on mute.
03:21And we will immediately review from Mr. Yusuf Rendy, how does Indonesia see and also review the role of the APBN itself in supporting national economic growth.
03:33Mr. Yusuf, please.
03:34Yes, if we look at this year's context, the APBN still contributes positively to national economic growth in general.
03:44This can actually be seen in the government consumption contribution in the first semester, which can grow 9% annually.
03:55So I think this 9% figure is still relatively large compared to several other components in the GDP.
04:02This also indicates that the APBN contributes to economic growth in the first quarter and also in the second quarter.
04:13Contributions in the APBN itself, if we look at it, especially in the first semester, it was caused or pushed by two factors.
04:21The first, if we remember, at the beginning of the year, the government suspended the budget allocation allocated for the needs of the political year.
04:31Because at the beginning of the year there was a general election for president and also several sub-administrations related to that political year.
04:41Meanwhile, the second, if we remember, still at the beginning of the year, the APBN was allocated for social assistance needs.
04:54Because at the beginning of the year, we remember there was a price increase for several food communities.
05:00So at that time, the government finally adjusted the budget to allocate several components of social assistance needs in a thematic way.
05:11Which is intended to anticipate the weakening of the purchasing power of the people due to the increase in food prices at that time.
05:19So in general, if we look at it, the APBN still makes a positive contribution in general.
05:27But if we compare it to last year, the APBN contribution or government spending on the PDB has indeed decreased.
05:35Because the spending is also adjusted compared to last year.
05:40Okay, from the point of view of an entrepreneur, what do you think about the role and energy of our APBN?
05:47Is it significant enough related to the economic and industrial activities in the country?
05:55Yes, as mentioned earlier, the APBN contributes the most at the moment.
06:06What makes the situation worse is that we see that the consumption of household goods, the purchasing power of the people has decreased.
06:19We are very concerned about this situation.
06:25Okay, so there is a decrease in the purchasing power of the people.
06:28As mentioned earlier, there may be some points that can be used for the APBN to push or become a booster.
06:34From the point of view of economic activities in the first quarter, there was an increase in the spending for the political year.
06:39Then there was also a decrease in food prices.
06:42And in August 2024, you see that the APBN deficit again expanded to 0.68% of the PDB or around 153.7 trillion compared to July, which was 0.41% of the PDB.
06:57What can we analyze related to the increasing deficit?
07:03Actually, if we look at the correlation between the price of commodities and the APBN, we see a positive correlation.
07:12It means that when there is a movement of the price of commodities, the APBN will also react.
07:18So the expansion of the deficit this year is actually relatively expected.
07:24Because if we look at the price of commodities this year, it is already in the period of normalization compared to last year.
07:31So when the price of commodities has started to slow down, it finally has an impact on the balance of countries, especially those related to commodities, such as mining, oil and gas, etc.
07:47At the same time, if we look at the acceptance of the country, it has decreased, but the spending has increased.
07:55The increase in spending, as we discussed earlier, was contributed by the political year, followed by social assistance.
08:03And in the middle of the year, in August, the transfer to the region, which was still relatively slow at the beginning of the year,
08:13but in the middle of this year, it has been relatively fast.
08:18Because some friends in the regional government have started to implement several transfer components, such as public allocation funds, special allocation funds, village funds, etc.
08:32So the impact of the increase in spending mentioned earlier and the weakening of the price of commodities.
08:40And one more thing, if we talk about acceptance, the manufacturing industry, if we look at it in the last few months, has experienced a delay.
08:51Well, this is also bad news from the acceptance side, because the manufacturing industry is the largest contributor to the tax receipt, especially in general.
09:05So when the industry slows down, the tax receipt also slows down.
09:09And this ultimately leads to widespread deficits, which we have observed from the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter.
09:19Okay, Mr. Suplantas, let's see, is it true that the government's spending is also effectively felt by entrepreneurs?
09:25In other words, are there really incentives there too? We will discuss later in the next segment.
09:30We will pause for a moment. And Mr. Mirza, make sure you are still with us.
09:35Yes, thank you for still joining us in Market Review.
09:54Mr. Mirza, in the next segment, we will present data related to GDP per year 2024 in August 2024.
09:59Yes, as you can see on your television screen, we can see that the country's income has reached Rp1,777 trillion, or about 63.4% of the target.
10:10Or if we look at the country's income, it has dropped by about 2.5% per year.
10:17Meanwhile, on the other hand, the country's spending recorded Rp1,930.7 trillion, or 58.1% of the target.
10:29And the country's spending experienced a double digit increase of 15.3% per year or year-on-year, resulting in a deficit of Rp153.7 trillion, or about 0.68% of GDP.
10:44Meanwhile, the primary balance is still surplus, Rp161.8 trillion.
10:51Next, we will discuss the APBN deficit trend from April to August 2024.
10:57In April, it was 0.33% of GDP, while in May, it was 0.1%, then in June, it was 0.34%, then in July, it was 0.41%, and in August, it was 0.68% of GDP.
11:17The trend tends to rise from May, June, July, and August.
11:23Next, let's take a look at the country's income.
11:27Here are the contributing components.
11:29There is PPH Non-Migas, Rp665.52 trillion, PPN and PPN-BM, Rp470.81 trillion, PPH Migas, Rp44.45 trillion, PBB, and other taxes, Rp15.76 trillion.
11:46We will continue our discussion with Mrs. Diana Dewi, Chairperson of DKI Jakarta, and Mr. Yusuf Rendy Manilet, Economic Core Researcher, Indonesia.
11:56Mrs. Diana Dewi, we have discussed the current economic condition.
12:02As you can see, the government spending has started to rise, resulting in a wider deficit.
12:09Do you feel that the government spending is really effective for the business world?
12:17Yes, we feel that there is a bottleneck.
12:25Because of what the entrepreneurs feel, the revenue that we target is almost unachievable.
12:35You can see the condition.
12:38And we also know that it's not just because of the onset, but also because of the PHK.
12:46This proves where the money comes from.
12:51Why doesn't it circulate?
12:53This is what we are also asking.
12:57Because we feel that the people's purchasing power has decreased, but the APBN itself has contributed a lot to the government spending.
13:08This is what we also feel until now.
13:12Why should the people's purchasing power decrease?
13:16This is what we are also asking.
13:19Or maybe it's because of the competition.
13:24For example, there are a lot of imported products.
13:30So, those who are affected by imported products feel that their purchasing power has decreased.
13:37This is what entrepreneurs are concerned about.
13:42Okay, this is interesting.
13:44Mr. Yusuf, from the Indonesian Corp, how is it?
13:47You can see that the government spending has increased by 15 percent.
13:55Meanwhile, in the business world, the revenue that they expect or target is not achieved.
14:03There were several points earlier.
14:05People's purchasing power weakness.
14:07How do you see this condition?
14:10But why can't it be a booster for economic activities from the production side?
14:16Yes.
14:18So, if we try to run it, how can the APBN have an impact?
14:25Especially to the industry, it can be done in various ways.
14:28Okay.
14:29The first is to provide direct incentives.
14:32Usually, tax incentives or certain subsidies are provided to help.
14:38Especially for entrepreneurs who are under pressure right now.
14:44Okay.
14:45The second channel, APBN can help through direct impact.
14:50For example, the government protects the people's livelihood.
14:55So that the people's consumption drive can remain.
15:01And what will feel the impact is when the people's consumption is still high.
15:10So that the production capacity can still be run.
15:14More or less simply like that.
15:16Now, for the first point, if we look at this year,
15:21the tax incentives provided are not as big as the previous years.
15:27Especially during the pandemic.
15:29It means that the government has begun to limit the tax incentives for certain groups of businesses.
15:36And this is what I think is an additional burden.
15:41Especially for them, entrepreneurs or industries that are not fully recovered.
15:47Especially after the pandemic.
15:49There are several industries, for example, the textile industry and its products.
15:53Okay.
15:54If we talk about long discussions, they are not fully recovered.
15:58Now, when the government has begun to withdraw its assistance,
16:01this industry is finally more under pressure.
16:04They are not fully recovered, but the government has withdrawn the assistance provided to them.
16:11Now, then if the tax incentives.
16:13Earlier, we said that the tax incentives were distributed at the beginning of the year.
16:18But as the middle of the year, the tax incentives began to be limited.
16:23Because the government did not distribute the assistance in a wider way compared to the beginning of last year.
16:30So when the assistance is not distributed again,
16:33especially when the assistance is only limited to certain income groups,
16:37the consumption of the community is finally under pressure.
16:41That's why in the second quarter, household consumption,
16:46even though it still grows, the growth is relatively lower than last year.
16:52I think one of the reasons is because there was a price increase,
16:57and then the tax incentives have also begun to be relatively limited.
17:00So that's about the picture.
17:02Mr. Yusuf, this is interesting.
17:03So if there is an increase in government spending,
17:06compared to the receipt you mentioned earlier,
17:09but then where does the flow of funds go?
17:14If this becomes a question,
17:16why can't it be a booster for growth or economic and industrial activities in the country?
17:23Yes, because if we look at the flow of funds, especially from the APBN,
17:28it is distributed to employee spending.
17:32Employee spending is actually more specific to ASN, for example.
17:37Unfortunately, the contribution of ASN to the total number of workers is not that big,
17:43about less than 5%.
17:45So even if ASN gets a raise or a bonus from the APBN,
17:53the macro-wide contribution is relatively small.
17:57That's why, if we look at the contribution to the economy,
18:04the sum of APBN funds to the economy is relatively small,
18:07because the contribution is also small.
18:10Also, don't forget that in the APBN,
18:13there is spending that is not very productive.
18:16For example, I have to raise this issue,
18:18for example, spending on debt repayment.
18:21Debt repayment is a relatively small multiplier.
18:23It means that in terms of shares, it has increased in the past few years,
18:28but in terms of contribution, it is also relatively small.
18:30That's why the budget for spending looks big,
18:37but when we talk about the economy in general,
18:40it feels a little to the business.
18:43Okay, so how can we boost our economy in the middle of the transition period?
18:47On the one hand, the spending continues to increase,
18:50then the decrease, sorry, I mean,
18:53how does the acceptance of this decrease have to be increased?
18:56We will discuss later in the next segment.
18:58We will be back in a moment.
18:59Viewers, we will be right back after the break.
19:07Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
19:21We will continue this interesting discussion
19:23together with the resumers,
19:24Mr. Yusof Rendy Manilet, Berikot Indonesia,
19:26then Mrs. Diana Dewi, Kadin Jakarta.
19:28Okay, Mrs. Diana Dewi,
19:30how about some of the notes that Mr. Yusof Rendy has just said?
19:34The deficit is indeed widespread,
19:37but it does not have a significant impact on industry activities,
19:43even though there were some incentives
19:45to maintain the purchasing power of the people,
19:47or maybe it has been given a policy that was taken from the APBN by the government.
19:53So, what is the strategy of the businessman himself
19:56to deal with this situation, Mrs. Diana?
20:00Yes, we are trying,
20:04that these friends empower the existing products,
20:10which are local products.
20:12This has to be increased.
20:14So, we always say that
20:17from the background of bad conditions,
20:22we try to reduce the import of products.
20:28Yes, we know that the possibility of the existing APBN
20:32is also more to pay abroad
20:36because it has fallen in tempo, maybe like that.
20:39Friends in the private sector also
20:41yesterday with the dollar condition,
20:44Rp16,000, then a lot of falling in tempo,
20:47they also screamed.
20:49So, of course, we have to go back to
20:52how we improve the local knowledge.
20:56Then, of course, there are incentives
21:01in implementing activities.
21:05If not helped by the government,
21:10we finally want the instant,
21:12we want everything to be imported.
21:14This is also important.
21:16And friends who use,
21:22in the future, God willing,
21:23with the government program
21:27for food,
21:29this may have a good impact
21:33for friends who are in the country,
21:39how to raise local products.
21:42Not with Rp71 trillion that we have in front of our eyes,
21:47there will also be imported products
21:49that are larger in portion.
21:51This is important.
21:53Yes, it means that there is an industry that may be able to
21:55get its blessings with this policy.
21:59Well, with conditions like this,
22:01how is it, Mrs. Soefrendi?
22:03If there was a country's spending,
22:05incentives that have been given,
22:07we know there is a property sector
22:09and several other business sectors
22:11until the end of 2024.
22:13But what about the acceptance of the country?
22:15Which other sectors can be targeted
22:17to boost the country's income?
22:19Yes, so,
22:21I think if we talk about the sector,
22:23it's a bit tricky.
22:25Especially if we talk about
22:27a few months before the end of the year.
22:29So,
22:31in my opinion,
22:33actually, the effort to boost acceptance
22:35is also correlated with
22:37the effort to boost economic growth
22:39in general.
22:41Hopefully, with economic growth
22:43experiencing an increase,
22:45it can attract the government
22:47or be given incentives by the government
22:49to become bigger.
22:51So, in the last few months,
22:53in our opinion,
22:55the government should focus
22:57on maintaining stability
22:59first.
23:01Stability, for example,
23:03inflation, then the stability of exchange rates.
23:05That's what we think
23:07can be done.
23:09Especially if we talk about a relatively short period of time.
23:11However,
23:13at the same time,
23:15we also need to look at the fiscal space.
23:17Will there be an opportunity
23:19at the end of the year
23:21to, for example,
23:23raise the deficit
23:25with the goal of giving incentives?
23:27So, once again,
23:29the goal of raising the deficit
23:31is to give incentives.
23:33What are the incentives?
23:35For example, the PPNDTP incentive
23:37or corporate tax incentives
23:39or, for example,
23:41corporate factory incentives
23:43and various sorts.
23:45Those are the options that the government
23:47can take in a short period of time.
23:49But if we talk about a longer context,
23:51a medium to long term,
23:53I agree with what
23:55Ms. Diana said.
23:57Several government programs,
23:59such as a flagship program
24:01from the new government,
24:03free lunch,
24:05should also be able to provide
24:07a benefit to entrepreneurs
24:09ecosystem dari sebuah kebijakan kata-kata lainnya program makan bergizi gratis itu harus didesign untuk melibatkan
24:16stakeholder-stakeholder di dalam negeri. Dengan harapan tadi ya, suntikan dari APBN itu juga bisa dirasakan
24:23langsung ke masyarakat ataupun pelaku usaha domestik.
24:27Tapi trendnya sendiri menurut Anda dari pelebaran defisit APBN kita akan berlanjut tidak?
24:34Ya, potensi pelebaran defisit pasti akan terjadi ya. Apalagi kalau kita bicara konteks tahun ini
24:39dimana belanjanya semakin membesar dan penerimaannya makin turun secara pertumbuhan.
24:46Saya kira pelebaran defisit merupakan hal yang sulit dihindari baik di tahun ini maupun di tahun-tahun mendatang
24:53ketika belanja pemerintah semakin membesar dengan kebutuhan beberapa program pembangunan.
25:01Baik, kemudiannya bagaimana optimisme Anda sendiri terkait dengan dunia usaha di dalam negeri
25:06dengan bagaimana APBN juga bisa menjadi short absorber ya terhadap kondisi ekonomi di dalam negeri
25:11dan juga tekanan-tekanan dari global begitu. Silahkan.
25:15Ya, saya khawatirnya pendapatan negara ini memang sudah di dalam tahap maksimal ya.
25:23Itu yang kita khawatirkan. Jadi, bukannya terus equilibrium-nya menaik terus
25:29tapi ini bisa, ya syukur-syukur dalam keadaan start-nya.
25:34Tapi kalau ini turun, nah ini yang kita juga mengkhawatirkan.
25:39Karena pasti dikejar-kejar pajak itu satu hari bisa ada 3-4 telpon sama AO-nya ya masing-masing.
25:47Teman-teman di bagian pajak, di perusahaan masing-masing itu sudah teriak semua loh mas
25:53bahwa banyak sekali kondisi ini yang akhirnya membuat teman-teman merasa juga
25:58bukan ketenangan di dalam berbisnis, tapi ya dampaknya seperti ini, gitu mas.
26:05Baik, Ibu Diana, terima kasih juga atas waktu sharing dan juga informasi bahwa itu adalah update terkini ya
26:10terkait dunia usaha, bagaimana APBN diharapkan benar-benar menjadi buffer juga
26:15begitu menjadi short absorber terhadap perekonomian di dalam negeri.
26:19Mas Yusuf, terima kasih banyak juga atas analisis yang sudah anda sampaikan kepada pemirsa pada hari ini.
26:24Selamat melanjutkan aktivitas anda kembali, salam sehat.
26:27Mas Yusuf, Ibu Diana, terima kasih.
26:29Salam sehat, terima kasih.
26:31Baik pemirsa, jangan beranjak dari tempat anda karena sesaat lagi kami masih akan kembali dengan tema menarik lainnya
26:35di mana rokok berkemasan polos, negara dan industri berpotensi mengalami kerugian.
26:41Sesaat lagi.