Itinanggi na ni dating Pangulong Rodrigo Duterte na nagkaroon siya ng 'gentleman’s agreement' sa China pero inamin niyang pinag-usapan nila ang status quo order sa West Philippine Sea.
Ayon naman kay International Studies Professor Renato De Castro, bahagi raw ng appeasement policy ni dating Pangulong Duterte ang umano'y 'gentleman's agreement' na pananatilihin ang status quo sa pinag-aagawang teritoryo.
Ano nga ba ang implikasyon ng sinasabing ‘gentleman’s agreement’ sa posisyon ng Pilipinas sa West Philippine Sea?
Sasagutin iyan ni Prof. Renato De Castro sa The Mangahas Interviews.
Ayon naman kay International Studies Professor Renato De Castro, bahagi raw ng appeasement policy ni dating Pangulong Duterte ang umano'y 'gentleman's agreement' na pananatilihin ang status quo sa pinag-aagawang teritoryo.
Ano nga ba ang implikasyon ng sinasabing ‘gentleman’s agreement’ sa posisyon ng Pilipinas sa West Philippine Sea?
Sasagutin iyan ni Prof. Renato De Castro sa The Mangahas Interviews.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 [Music]
00:05 Good day to all of you. You are now watching The Mangahas Interviews.
00:09 We will talk about a very big story.
00:13 We will talk about Professor Renato De Castro.
00:18 He is a professor at De La Salle University.
00:21 He has over 100 books, academic reports, and he is a scholar of US-Philippine relations, ASEAN, politics, etc.
00:36 Good day, Professor Renato.
00:38 Good morning, Malu. How are you?
00:41 I'm good. It seems like you are not stopping.
00:45 You are a favorite of the interview panels today.
00:50 Professor Renato, tell us about this Balikatan exercise.
00:54 39th exercise, 16,000 troops, 14 countries.
00:58 What does this mean? Is this a war?
01:07 No, we are preparing.
01:10 Last year, we had a new defense policy.
01:17 It is called comprehensive archipelagic defense concept.
01:22 We are announcing that for almost 70 years, the government and military have been paying attention to deal with the so-called internal insurgencies,
01:38 such as the communist insurgency, the Muslim and secessionist movement, and also the fight against terrorism.
01:46 The government decided to look outside.
01:53 The story that is happening outside, I will use the term or speech that President Bongbong Marcos Jr. used.
02:04 There is a powerful country that is challenging our maritime border.
02:12 That was his speech that he delivered last February 2023 in Malacanang.
02:18 He gave the idea that our problem now is that there is a powerful country there.
02:24 I will also use the term used by Secretary Chodoro when he describes our territorial dispute.
02:33 I am saying that we are giving up our exclusive economic zone.
02:37 Professor Rene, even though China or China is not exactly the one who is being targeted by this unity of 14 countries,
02:48 Balikatan of 16,000 troops, China is the enemy. Is that the only real enemy?
02:55 Yes. In a way, China is upset because it has already occupied one of the seas, the South China Sea.
03:05 The evidence is that China released a nine-dash line map in 2009 and it added another ten-dash line.
03:15 We will look at it. Maybe it's better to discuss the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea and July 12, 2016 Arbitral Tribunal.
03:27 China is a member of UNCLOS. If you are a member of UNCLOS, your maritime claims are defined by UNCLOS.
03:37 You have 12 nautical miles, contingent zone and of course up to 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone.
03:48 You don't own it, but you have a maritime entitlement.
03:52 But China is basing its claims in the South China Sea on its historic claims and of course nine-dash line claims.
04:01 It has no basis in UNCLOS because UNCLOS, your claim should be geographic based on what you call baseline.
04:10 China never released its baseline. It only released its nine-dash line in 2009 and of course it added ten-dash line.
04:19 As you remember, in January 2013, we filed a claim in the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea, in the Arbitral Tribunal ruling.
04:33 The Arbitral Tribunal released a ruling on July 12, 2016 that says that China's claim is based on legal basis and even its historic claim.
04:44 Despite the ruling, despite China being a member of UNCLOS, it is occupying 80 percent of the South China Sea.
04:53 All right. Professor Rene, it's been several months, several years, since the verbal claim of the Philippines and China,
05:02 and now the Philippines has allies in Bali, Catan. But for the people, what should be the message?
05:11 Where will this criticism go? Should they be afraid?
05:17 We don't want chaos, we don't want war, but we should defend our maritime entitlement.
05:27 We can see on television that our fishermen are being sent away to Scarborough Shoal, Chinese Coast Guard are being sent away.
05:37 We are resupplying to Ayungin, but Chinese Coast Guard is preventing us.
05:41 We cannot explore our natural resources, natural gas or lead banks.
05:48 The President is now in power. What is the cause of the tension?
05:53 In the last six years, during the time of President Rodrigo Duterte, the government's policy is to appease China.
06:01 China is surprised that we have a President who is not yet a President,
06:10 he acknowledged the arbitral tribunal ruling and he announced that he would not lose a square inch.
06:18 One of the causes of tension, the Chinese are saying, they are consistent in their concerns, but we are different.
06:28 China is saying cognitive dissonance because the President is now acting like a fool, unlike the last six years when he appeased China.
06:40 That's why the Gentleman's Agreement was signed.
06:42 Let's go to the Gentleman's Agreement. There's a denial.
06:46 Former President Duterte signed the Gentleman's Agreement, but the Chinese foreign ministry has a confirmation that there was a discussion
06:55 that as is, where is, status quo, no movement. What is the truth? Is there a Gentleman's Agreement or not?
07:02 What are the contents of the discussions?
07:05 Of course, we are focused on the Iung-ing Shoal. Supposedly, the Gentleman's Agreement, let's explain to the viewers,
07:14 first of all, we have the commission vessel of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, a landing tank ship
07:22 that was put there in 1999 during the time of President Joseph Estrada.
07:28 Let's explain later why we put it there.
07:31 We are reacting to the Chinese's attempt to steal.
07:34 It started in 1995 when China stole the Mischief Leap.
07:40 When they put it there, the Chinese told us that they will use it as a fisherman's shelter.
07:47 But they didn't leave. Then during the time of President Joseph Estrada,
07:54 and of course upon the advice of the Secretary of National Defense, Orly Mercado, we prevented it.
08:02 So we put it there, we beat the ship.
08:05 Actually, not only in the Iung-ing Shoal, we also put it in the Scarborough Shoal.
08:10 We put two in order to prevent the Chinese.
08:14 So the Chinese's game plan was to wait for us to break it.
08:19 When it breaks, we will go in.
08:23 Let's go back to the time of President Rodrigo Duterte.
08:28 The Gentleman's Agreement was part of his appeasement policy in China.
08:33 His calculation is that if we move away from our confrontational policy in China,
08:40 tensions in the South China Sea will be relaxed and of course, we will receive a huge Chinese investment,
08:49 especially in infrastructure.
08:51 If you remember, when President Rodrigo Duterte went to Beijing in October 2016,
08:58 he said that we have 24 billion dollars.
09:04 Who will not adopt an appeasement policy if you will be facing such a huge amount of money?
09:10 But we know that the money did not go in and of course, the harassment of China continued.
09:16 So that's part of the Gentleman's Agreement.
09:20 Supposedly, I will maintain my status there.
09:23 We will not bring any construction material, only food.
09:28 Of course, we will not be harassed by China.
09:31 But there are issues that are coming out, especially Associate Justice Antonio Carpio.
09:37 He said that first of all, the Yuenging Shoal should not be included in the Gentleman's Agreement because the situation of freeze-napped has happened.
09:47 In 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Declaration of the Code of Conduct.
09:56 So the situation should be frozen.
09:59 So our ship is already there in the Yuenging Shoal, and we should continue our resupply there and not be harassed by China.
10:06 But when we entered the Gentleman's Agreement, we compromised the situation in the declaration.
10:14 Second, Associate Justice Carpio said that in 2016, he declared that the water around the Yuenging Shoal is an international water source.
10:24 But China's position is that by asking permission from the Chinese, we acknowledge that they own the water in the Yuenging Shoal.
10:34 Can you explain? The problem here is that the resupply is because our troops are there, the Coast Guard personnel.
10:42 They need food and other supplies.
10:45 The construction or refurbishing of the ships that are there is prohibited. Is it like that?
10:52 Yes. But President Rodrigo Duterte was also put in danger as commander-in-chief.
10:59 If you are commander-in-chief, your obligation is to ensure the comfort of your soldiers.
11:08 By agreeing to do that, that they will not put construction material, imagine the situation of our marines on board,
11:17 you are not only fixing their quarters. In a way, it's a derelict of duty on the part of the former president because you are neglecting your soldiers.
11:28 But in reality, there is no written agreement.
11:31 I don't have. It's a Gentleman's Agreement.
11:35 How can our President Duterte be put in danger? Why did China believe? There's no paper, no written agreement. It's just a verbal power.
11:46 Actually, Chinese will be good at this. If you look at the Confucius culture, Japanese and Koreans, they will not agree on paper.
11:57 It's a Gentleman's Agreement by word.
12:00 When it comes to the president, if we can say, he was not really denialated because it's in our Constitution that the president is the architect of Philippine foreign policy.
12:11 And of course, as the president, you are the commander-in-chief, you are the country's top diplomat.
12:16 It would be better if we ask him to explain. What is your motive?
12:21 It would be better if there is a call in either House of Congress or Senate for an investigation.
12:29 And not only in the Gentleman's Agreement, there might be more agreements under the Gentleman's Agreement.
12:37 I will give you an example, ma'am. In 2018, I delivered a speech to the Armed Forces and Coast Guard.
12:46 I conveyed to them the concern of the Japanese Embassy.
12:52 If you remember, Japan gave us 12 Coast Guard vessels.
12:59 That was the time when the agreement was signed by former President Binigno Aquino III.
13:06 So the Japanese are expecting us to use our Coast Guard vessels in the West Philippines and South China Sea.
13:13 But where will they deploy them? They will deploy them in Bentham Rise, Burakay, except in the South China Sea.
13:26 I asked the Coast Guard. The Coast Guard said, I remember, that they have instructions in Malacanang that we cannot deploy.
13:34 I think it also applies to the Navy, that we cannot deploy ships because the Chinese will be provoked.
13:43 But by doing so, we are not challenging them. We are conveying to them that we accept your threat.
13:51 But Professor Rene, the problem with these agreements, whether it's verbal or not, it's usually a secret.
14:01 There's a problem like the one in the West Philippine Sea, where they are sending supply mission vessels to be sent away.
14:15 How can we clarify if this is a secret? What is the audit of the promises or part of the appeasement policy that President Duterte gave to China?
14:27 It's better if we provide a forum to explain to former President Rodrigo Duterte why he undertook those policies.
14:39 Because when it comes to foreign policy, it's really up to the President. But of course, he's not the President anymore.
14:47 We have to hold him accountable, especially in terms of his actions in foreign policy and probably his other actions as the President of the Philippines.
14:57 But my area of foreign policy, let's provide a venue, a forum where he would have to explain to the Filipino people why he adopted the appeasement policy,
15:09 what we learned from that appeasement policy and what are the other gentlemen's agreements within that appeasement policy.
15:18 You are studying Philippine foreign relations, the United States and other Western nations. But when President Duterte pivoted to China,
15:29 now he's pivoting to the U.S. by President Biden and other countries. What are the implications if Trump wins again in the U.S.?
15:42 You remember that there was an alliance. Everyone was expecting President Bongbong Marcos to continue President Duterte's policy.
15:54 In the early part of President Bongbong Marcos' time, his policy is balance. If we will focus on the economy in China,
16:04 you remember the first one who visited our President was Foreign Minister Wang Yi. He was in Malacanang for a few days.
16:14 I'm sorry, Foreign Minister Wang Yi realized that this is the experience of President Rodrigo Duterte.
16:22 If you push America, China will take you for granted. You should balance it.
16:31 That's why he revitalized our alliance with the U.S. His hope is, I don't know if you remember the saying of Mao Zedong,
16:40 you have to walk on two legs, walking on two legs. But China will have none of this.
16:46 China thinks that we are holding you by the waist and we should hold you by your chest and heart. China would have none of this.
16:55 This really pushed President Marcos into the arms of the Americans. If the Chinese are angry with our President,
17:03 why are you sticking to America, the Chinese should not be blamed but themselves.
17:08 Because they are uncompromising, especially with the incidents.
17:14 I remember when President Marcos visited Beijing, actually his first state visit to Beijing,
17:22 he was asked for two concessions from China that President Xi Jinping did not give.
17:29 That's when he realized that... This is just a confirmation.
17:34 First of all, he was asking because the Chinese are saying joint development.
17:40 He said let's try joint development in the RIB bank.
17:43 President Xi Jinping did not immediately respond, but later the Global Times released an article saying that we will have joint development if the territory is undisputed.
17:57 So this basically defeats the very purpose of joint development because you will have joint development in a disputed territory.
18:05 Second, what our President asked was very simple.
18:11 Let the Filipino fishermen fish in traditional fishing grounds, like in Scarborough Shoal.
18:19 But even though the Chinese did not allow it.
18:22 So when he came back here, he realized that it's hard to make a deal with President Xi Jinping and the Chinese.
18:29 Of course, this eventually pushed him to America.
18:32 When it comes to your question about Donald Trump, many are dividing with the Americans.
18:38 Issue of immigration, issue of economic policy, issue of free trade, issue of culture war.
18:46 But only one is uniting with the Americans, and that's the issue of China.
18:50 There's a consensus with the Americans, even though the Americans are divided with Ukraine or Russia.
18:58 But when it comes to dealing with China, there's a foreign policy consensus.
19:04 China represents the clear and present danger to American interests in the 21st century.
19:10 Let's be clear, because we are a small country.
19:13 The real leading actors in this story are China versus the United States.
19:21 What's it like for us? How will we react if they are two giants fighting each other,
19:28 and we are like a net in the heat and a net in the cold, we can be stuck in the middle.
19:34 Yes. The problem is not the problem, but the reality we face, our geography.
19:40 Let's say we are in a part of the world that is close to China,
19:44 and of course, the US is also operating from the Pacific going into the Indo-Pacific region.
19:49 We have to play it wisely.
19:51 First of all, let's not look at ourselves as victims, but we have to see how we can play the game.
19:59 Because when we go back to the Cold War, there are countries that were trapped in the detachment of the Soviet Union and America,
20:07 but they took advantage. One of them is Japan.
20:10 Japan was able to industrialize primarily, it played with those two countries, and South Korea, Taiwan, and even China.
20:18 They also took advantage of the Soviet Union and of course, the United States during the Cold War.
20:23 So, let's move away from the notion of victimization.
20:27 Let's look at it as an opportunity how we could take advantage of this strategic competition.
20:34 Vietnam and Malaysia are players in this game.
20:38 So, we have to move away from the sense that we might be victimized.
20:43 Rather, we have to see this as an opportunity on how we could harness, take advantage of this ongoing competition.
20:51 All right. Now, it sounds very clear from an academic geopolitical frame that we will benefit from this because there are possibilities,
21:03 like the joint award exercises, trade, technical assistance, aid.
21:09 But in the case of the Philippines, the fisherfolk's right to fish is critical.
21:18 The exploration of natural gas in the area that was contested, what will that do?
21:26 That's why our government adopted, despite the fact that we have an alliance, what we call the archipelagic defense concept.
21:35 Correct.
21:36 Our goal is primarily economic.
21:39 The goal is that every Filipino should have access to the resources that will be used in our exclusive economic zone.
21:48 Of course, the plan is there, but the challenge is implementation.
21:54 And of course, there is national unity.
21:56 All right. You talked about the economic benefits that should be prioritized for the Filipino fishermen.
22:03 China is our biggest source of imports and buyer of exports from the Philippines.
22:11 But the United States and the countries that are on the other side, number two, three, four, five, down the line,
22:18 it will be balanced. The bilateral trade between the Philippines and China is too big.
22:26 That's the reality we face. But the disadvantage is, we can see how China is using trade relations.
22:35 That happened to us in 2012 when China did not accept our bananas and China made it in Australia.
22:43 When the investigation of Australia was conducted regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, China was punished.
22:51 Again, our take is we have to diversify. We have to diversify trade partners.
22:59 If you remember, there was a summit in Camp David by President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Quesida, and President Bongbong Marcos Jr.
23:13 where they added the statement.
23:15 The statement includes diversification of our economic relations. The term they are using is resilient supply chain.
23:23 So we have also to move our economy slowly away from China to other countries.
23:30 One important thing that they are focusing on, especially on strategic minerals, especially nickel.
23:38 We are rich in nickel. It's important to manufacture nickel batteries.
23:46 But what's happening is we are exporting our nickel to China.
23:53 So what we will do is we will have to encourage Filipino businessmen and probably with the assistance of other business partners,
24:02 we will process our nickel here and sell it. Actually, we will not sell it, but we will build factories to produce lithium batteries.
24:14 That's part of our link. We have been doing this since we were young, industrialization.
24:22 Okay. Professor Rene, when politics and defense and security issues cross over to the economy, okay, bilateral trade,
24:30 we said diversification. But in reality, there are a lot of investments in infrastructure,
24:36 there is a lot of exposure in grants made by China in the Philippines.
24:41 What will you do there? And these are state-owned enterprises of China.
24:47 It's not China that's investing in our infrastructure, it's Japan.
24:50 Because of the 24 billion promised by China, only a few projects were fulfilled.
24:56 You will remember when we were young in the Chaco River, the Chaco River irrigation project.
25:02 You will remember that. It was a dam, it was even called Makling Dulag.
25:06 Second, the Kaliwa Dam, that was the only one that was built.
25:11 But the big infrastructure projects there are actually Japan.
25:16 The North Luzon, the computer rail system from Central Luzon to Mepo, Manila, and especially the subway.
25:26 So when it comes to infrastructure, it's Japan that is basically number one.
25:31 China is exposed also to a lot of, not just infrastructure, but also investment or contracts in civil works projects, right?
25:40 It's also moving away. It's almost gone. In fact, one of the disappointments of President Bong Mor Marcos Jr.
25:49 is the four rail projects that China should fund.
25:53 In Mindanao, actually from Central Luzon to Mepo, Manila, and from Mepo, Manila to Bicol,
26:04 and the rail system that would connect Clark and Subic. We signed the contract with Chinese contractors.
26:11 The money never came from Beijing.
26:14 Now our problem is between China and the U.S., it's like a time immemorial.
26:21 It's geopolitics, like a duopoly of control over power in the world.
26:29 But there are a lot of theater of conflict now, the U.S. in particular, in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Iran, Myanmar is still a problem.
26:42 How do we put the Philippines on the map as a priority if the U.S. is so involved in all these problems?
26:50 Again, it's a matter of playing the game. How we play the game, how we keep our cards close to our chest.
26:57 There's no simple solution. There's no silver bullet cases.
27:02 We have to muddle through and sometimes we have to rely on pure sheer luck.
27:06 This is a very complicated world that we cannot control all the variables.
27:13 I think as an academic, my obligation is we have to educate our people regarding how important the world around us is to every Filipino.
27:26 And of course, also make them, like the issue of the gentleman's agreement, how we have to basically encourage our people to make sure that our leaders are accountable.
27:40 Especially when it comes to the issue of foreign policy.
27:44 Because when it comes to the issue of foreign policy, only a few people are involved in it.
27:49 I'm teaching this in a classical way, when it comes to the structure of foreign policy, the structure is very elitist.
27:56 Only a few people make decisions.
28:00 When President Xi Jinping and President Duterte made the gentleman's agreement, only two people knew about it.
28:06 But how many citizens of the two countries?
28:10 President Xi Jinping represents 1.2 billion Chinese, President Duterte represents 110 million Filipinos, but they never informed their citizens.
28:23 So the destiny or the fate of their citizens is only dependent on the two individuals.
28:32 In the Philippines, in Thailand, Indonesia and most everywhere else, one of the unique things China did is the cultural offensive.
28:41 Yes, charm offensive.
28:44 They are charm patrol. Their ambassadors are writing columns in national newspapers.
28:52 There are many exchange programs, students, academics, civil servants, there are training programs on ICT for government personnel.
29:03 We also have the Association for Philippines-China Understanding, Confucius Institute in other countries.
29:11 How is this? Because there is goodwill hunting that China has done over the last few decades.
29:18 Meanwhile, the US has been stagnant since the time of human rights, corruption, concerns in these countries.
29:27 So now, the US is returning to these places while China's charm offensive is already working.
29:36 Actually, yes. Although China is very active in its charm offensive in Southeast Asia,
29:42 based on the ASEAN-wide survey conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,
29:49 the ISIS annual survey of Southeast Asia,
29:53 the second regional survey conducted by the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia,
30:00 what comes out actually despite China's effort of charm offensive, the most popular country is Japan.
30:07 There is still disgust in China despite China's charm offensive.
30:12 Because ordinary Southeast Asians see that yes, China is very active in the field of culture,
30:19 but especially in Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos, they see how China is holding their economy.
30:28 Almost all countries have a diaspora. We have a population of Chinese, our Chinese-Filipino citizens,
30:38 and they have a respected name and they are individuals in different industries, sectors,
30:45 and it seems that they have a big role in the economy.
30:49 What should be their role or what is their view on this issue?
30:53 I remember my history course with former professor Renato Constantino.
31:01 We will go back to the past and revisit it.
31:04 If you look at our history, the Chinese that we call,
31:09 they have developed nationalism that is focused on the Philippines, not on China.
31:16 If we look at our history, the illustrators like Cerizal Lopez Haina, they are Chinese,
31:25 but they don't see themselves as Chinese, but as Filipino.
31:32 So that's what I see when we call the Chinese community there,
31:36 and especially me, I teach at the De La Salle University, the largest university for Chinese.
31:43 They have developed nationalism and already consider themselves as Filipinos.
31:50 That's why they have a different term for the Chinese from the mainland.
31:55 It's not automatic that the Chinese see themselves as Chinese.
32:02 They see themselves as Filipinos.
32:04 That's why I have confidence in the Filipino-Chinese community because there are many.
32:10 Not all, but many are already looking at the Philippines as their country, not China.
32:16 We should give them the same fatwa.
32:19 Let's go back to Bali-Katan. 16,000 troops, 14 countries, and three components.
32:27 First is the field exercises.
32:29 But it seems that the field exercises are more advanced because they will use real equipment
32:36 and they will really expand the operations in the field and air.
32:43 Second is the command and control, including cybercrime training, cyber technology training,
32:53 and third is humanitarian assistance.
32:55 These are their civic works.
32:58 What is the message here? It's like a charm offensive.
33:08 I will go back to our 18-year modernization program.
33:13 At the time of President Bongbong Marcos Jr., we are now in the third horizon, but there was a change.
33:22 The third horizon should have been done for 8 years, but they did it for 10 to 15 years.
33:26 So my point is that it is really expensive because it is not just acquiring equipment,
33:33 but the maintenance, training, and mindset of our soldiers is more expensive.
33:42 Because for so many years, their mindset was focused on conducting operations against the NPA,
33:50 the Abu Sayyaf, but now it's a different ballgame.
33:53 But what is the plan there? You're saying that the third component is being stretched.
33:59 It's 8 to 15 years, so it will end in 2040.
34:03 Our problem now is what is the real plan for the maintenance, training, and mindset.
34:13 We are being replaced by the chief of staff almost every day.
34:18 We are being replaced by the director general. They all have a great pet project that they want to legacy.
34:25 What about the continuity?
34:27 The first goal of the CADCEE is to think of the Philippines as being round, the archipelago.
34:33 Our comprehensive power reaches our exclusive economic zone.
34:38 Imagine that it's an egg, we have controlled our maritime borders.
34:44 Every Filipino, whether they are a farmer, a businessman, or a coast guard,
34:50 we can cooperate within our exclusive economic zone.
34:53 We are not being harassed.
34:55 That is the challenge that you are raising, what we call national consensus.
35:00 Especially now, we are a democracy. Elections are happening, changes are happening every now and then.
35:05 But this is a reality that we have to face.
35:08 Again, I think as an academic and as a citizen,
35:16 the mere fact that we have an external challenge is actually in a way an opportunity for us to put our house into order.
35:23 Will that be a sustainable project? What is the success rate?
35:27 Because we've seen what they are doing, component one and two.
35:30 That is our obligation to the future generations of Filipinos.
35:35 As a teacher, that is my obligation to educate our youth.
35:42 Because they are the future generations.
35:48 Whatever mistakes we make, they should correct it.
35:51 Whatever we started, they should continue.
35:54 But we cannot control their decisions.
35:58 The work is big, the need for funds is big, but internally, there is still a lot of confusion that there is still corruption.
36:07 Or there is still a spending within the armed forces.
36:11 You know the stories of platform studies that are custom fit to a particular supplier.
36:18 Or it is not interoperable with the things we already have.
36:22 Or there is a quota, the high positions.
36:29 How is that if it is a secret?
36:33 That's why this is very important, it is a very active civil society.
36:39 It has to be nationwide, it's a societal.
36:43 No matter what, we are a democracy, we have media, we have civil society that could at least balance each other.
36:51 What we really need in the next 8 to 15 years, what are the purposes of these purchases, training, maintenance budget?
37:03 Because as of now, you know that our budget deficit is big.
37:08 Our income is big and our tax sources are decreasing, our tax revenue collection.
37:15 That's why industrialization of our economy is important.
37:19 We can achieve the goal of the CADSEO if the economy also becomes developed and industrialized.
37:27 All right. Now let's go to the second component, command and control.
37:31 What will happen there?
37:32 It means rapid response, interaction, engagement with our allies. Is that how it is?
37:38 That's how it is. CADSEO is also part of it. We have to rely on our PT, ally and security partners.
37:44 But will that involve also the common platform for exchange of information?
37:51 That's probably included. That's also included. There are a lot of things to be done.
37:57 But the problem is there is a fund that needs command and control. That's a rollout, whatever the project and activities.
38:07 There are a lot of things to do. And there is restructuring of armed forces to shift the armed forces away from an army-centric to one that is for sky service.
38:20 We need to strengthen that, especially the naval forces and of course our air force, navy, and communication system.
38:29 And again, the issue here is not just acquiring equipment, but also maintenance.
38:36 You will also develop certain industries that have to support the armed forces.
38:43 It will also trigger a degree of industrialization.
38:47 Because as you also modernize the armed forces, you also have to build certain manufacturing and servicing facilities
38:54 that could ensure that the equipment is of course ready for possible combat use.
38:59 There are a lot of things. It's really putting our house into order.
39:02 It sounds so good if the idea level and targets can be laid neatly.
39:11 Let's go to the third component, the humanitarian assistance. This is like the charm patrol, charm offensive.
39:17 Of course, that's the charm. That's what we call it. We remember that it's civil action during the Vietnam War until the 60s.
39:26 Civil action. That's a part of the component.
39:29 What are they doing actually?
39:31 Usually, they are constructing streets, roads, certain projects in their unit.
39:42 There are medical action teams that go there and provide medical care, even veterinary services to animals.
39:50 But if the target is in the West Philippines, we might be talking about the same communities being served or the same provinces that are covered.
39:59 Usually, they are in Palawan, Batanes.
40:03 Because the nature of the Balikatan exercise is away from the center, so they go to the West Philippines, South China Sea.
40:11 We've learned from history that sometimes, the problem is your allies could also be your possible enemies, especially the cultural impact.
40:22 For example, the commercial sex workers, there are a lot of them. Or the tourism facilities that cater to them.
40:32 How about the social cost of this renewed relationship?
40:37 I'm not saying that it's all entirely on the bad side, but every relationship like this and gender, there's some social cost.
40:47 We're not looking at the prospect of a permanent base.
40:52 I remember the issue when we were young, the presence of two big military bases.
40:59 I don't think that will happen now because EDCA, their presence is only temporary.
41:04 It's always rotating. I don't see it happening, but of course, we simply don't know.
41:11 These are what we call externalities that we cannot simply control or we cannot simply anticipate.
41:20 Because if things get more testy, is it possible for you to have permanent stationing?
41:27 Because it's like the concern of people, we're opening more areas for transshipment, fueling, or jump off, jump in point.
41:38 I will not discount that. Of course, it will depend on how the Philippines and the United States assess the external plight or external environment.
41:47 When we get Commodore Terriela and USEC Malaya, another shift in policy is to tell the people what's happening in the West Philippine Sea.
42:01 Every day, there's a briefing. Every day, there are notices on what China has done, what our Coast Guard and troops have experienced.
42:12 How far will that go? Because at some point, people could just shut out.
42:18 Your story is repetitive. There's no narrative that moves except for incidents. Is that right? How far can they...
42:28 I think we're not yet reaching the saturation point. At certain point, people will become insensitive, but I think we have not reached that level.
42:40 All right. Okay. But in your opinion, was that a good move?
42:46 I think it's a good move. In a way, it's a backlash to the policy of appeasing China.
42:54 But there are many issues on the side like the coral reef. China said it will investigate, but there's no result.
43:02 So we're bundling it all up that the enemy is China. But every little thing is that China is at fault.
43:11 It's possible, for example, extractives industries, nickel, mining. There are many Filipino investors and beneficial owners of these companies.
43:22 So what's happening is we're having a national awakening that might, I'm not saying it's leading to, but it might lead to a sort of national xenophobia.
43:34 Correct.
43:35 Hopefully, the government should take control of the narrative and at the same time, I think China should also ensure that it will not be put in this way.
43:48 Because China in a way is also providing us the ammunition for this incidence. If China will be more responsive and more in a way, more nuanced approach, not hardline approach on the issue of West Philippines, South China Sea, then we won't have this reaction.
44:08 At the end of the day, China is a big country. China is for say seen as the source of civilization. Actually, China has greater responsibility to assure the smaller countries in Southeast Asia that expansion coercion is not really my goal.
44:26 All right. Okay. Let's make it clear. The point of critique is the Chinese Communist Party, the government of China, the people of China, and the other issues.
44:38 Our friends. Yeah.
44:40 How should people differentiate between the people of China and the government of China and what's happening in the West Philippines?
44:49 The people-to-people relation is really important. But the problem is, just like why the Pogos are being targeted, they are placed in enclaves.
44:59 Correct.
45:00 They don't really interact with the ordinary Filipinos. The ordinary Filipinos are also like that.
45:05 Now Professor Rene, what are the flashpoints that people should watch between now and of course, the election in May 2025. What should they look for or reference in the judgment if the situation in the West Philippines is getting better or worse?
45:25 The supply mission in Yuning and their Chinese behavior in our other land features that we are occupying, the hope here.
45:37 Of course, also the other major flashpoint that we are not discussing and we are also affected is Taiwan.
45:42 We are always focused on the South China Sea, but there is also a higher tension there, although we will say that we don't want to know about it because supposedly, it's an issue regarding China and Taiwan.
45:56 But let's think about it, we have 200,000 Filipinos there and it's very close to our country.
46:03 Well, what I can say is that there is a Chinese saying or Chinese curse, "May you live in an interesting time."
46:13 You mentioned what's happening around the world, maybe we can conclude that we are in a very interesting time.
46:19 Interesting and dangerous times?
46:23 I'll just say interesting.
46:26 Professor Rene, thank you very much for the information, insight and analysis of the issues.
46:34 I hope that the next generation will be better than the curses. Good day, Professor Rene de Castro.
46:44 Hi Malou, nice to see you again.
46:46 Thank you.
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