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00:00 Will there still be home field advantage if sports have no fans?
00:03 For more on that, I'm joined by our senior writer, John Wertheim.
00:07 Now, John, a lot of people asking that question,
00:09 but you actually have some evidence to give us an answer
00:12 based on Italian soccer and Swedish economics.
00:15 Yeah, a lot of this comes from a book I wrote several years ago
00:19 with a friend of mine, Toby Vosk, with scorecasting.
00:22 And what we found was that home field advantage, absolutely true.
00:26 It's not one of these sports myths.
00:28 It exists in virtually all sports all over the world, throughout history.
00:32 The home team wins, on average, more games than the road team.
00:36 And then the question becomes why.
00:37 And one of the things we looked at was,
00:39 there was a soccer game about 10 years ago,
00:42 and there was a riot after the game.
00:44 After that, the Italian Serie B League said,
00:46 "You know what? If your stadium's not up to code,
00:48 you're going to have to play in front of no fans."
00:50 And what did we find?
00:51 When games were played in front of no fans,
00:53 the home field advantage went away.
00:56 And you know why?
00:56 It's because the officiating changed.
00:59 And there were fewer penalties against the road team.
01:02 The closer calls evened out.
01:04 Ironically enough, the way that the athlete played,
01:07 so shots on goal and all of the GPS,
01:12 the positioning on the pitch, that didn't change at all.
01:14 So the athletes didn't change what they did,
01:16 whether there were fans or not.
01:18 But the officiating changed a lot.
01:19 And with that, the home pitch advantage went down.
01:22 So when we have these games coming up during COVID,
01:25 where there won't be any fans in the stands,
01:27 look for the calls to really even out,
01:28 whether that's penalties, whether that's fouls in basketball,
01:31 whether that's balls and strikes.
01:32 And with that, look for the home field,
01:35 home court advantage to go away as well.
01:38 - Yeah, I mean, that subconscious reaction, basically,
01:40 is what you're talking about with the officials, right?
01:42 Knowing if they make one call, there might be cheers,
01:44 and they make another, there might be jeers,
01:47 even if they're not doing that purposefully.
01:49 So we've seen that the home field advantage
01:51 decline in recent years.
01:52 What you're saying is expect it to be none at all.
01:55 This is just a coin flip, no matter who is listed
01:58 as the home team when it comes to any advantages.
02:01 - Yeah, I think so.
02:02 And why has it declined in recent years?
02:04 Well, one reason is there has been replay.
02:06 There have been reviewable calls and penalties
02:08 and close calls in the NBA at the latter stages of the game.
02:12 So yeah, it's been a rough time anyway
02:14 for home field, home pitch advantage.
02:16 At one point, halfway through the NFL season last year,
02:18 the road team had won more games.
02:19 We're coming off a World Series
02:21 where for the first time ever, seven games,
02:24 all of them won by the road team.
02:25 So already this advantage was in a bit of a decline,
02:28 and it's really gonna be accelerated.
02:30 You're absolutely right.
02:31 I mean, I think we're basically gonna have coin flips.
02:32 But again, look at the penalties,
02:35 look at the fouls called blocks versus charges.
02:37 You're absolutely right.
02:38 I mean, a lot of this is because of social pressure.
02:40 It's not corruption.
02:42 Nobody's saying there's a conspiracy theory here,
02:44 but referees and officials are human,
02:46 and that human element is gonna be taken out
02:48 when there isn't that social pressure
02:50 that comes with fans.
02:51 - Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
02:55 But some of the advantages some of the teams,
02:56 particularly in the NBA, have worked for may be for not.
03:00 John, appreciate your time as always.
03:02 - You got it.
03:03 [BLANK_AUDIO]