Our latest Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast episode evaluates the current 2024 NFL Draft Quarterbacks and Aidan O’Connell.
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00:00Hi everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter, your Sports Illustrated Beat Writer covering the
00:06Las Vegas Raiders and the host of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:11It's very, very good to be with you today.
00:12I'm sorry the podcast is getting out a little bit late, but I really appreciate all of you.
00:17I'm grateful for you.
00:19I want to dig right in today.
00:22We're going to be talking quarterbacks.
00:26I got what I think may be one of the best emails I've ever gotten from one of the listeners,
00:33and I'm going to read it, and then I'm going to tell you how some NFL executives evaluated
00:38the question that the person asked.
00:40It was just brilliant.
00:42And then we're going to look at the quarterback situation in totality, some things that some
00:48people have represented that I've said that are not truthful, and I want to put everything
00:53into context, but today's entire podcast is going to be quarterback specific.
00:58I want to give a big shout out.
01:01I got a text this morning from a Jimmy Tober, T-O-B-E-R, and this is what Jimmy says to
01:08me.
01:09Hi Hondo, long time fan located in the Niagara region of Canada.
01:18Can I ask a question?
01:20If A-O-4 was in the draft this year, where would he place among all of the others quarterback
01:29class?
01:30I think it's an important point that I haven't heard discussed as of yet.
01:37If he would be rated third or fourth, where would he be expected to be picked when re-picking?
01:47Thank you.
01:48This is a little bit more, again, this is from Jimmy Tober.
01:53I was just getting on the airplane when Jimmy sent this, so I sent it out to four executives
02:01and I asked them, if what you know about Aiden O'Connell, including last year, you knew now
02:11and he was coming out, how would you evaluate him in this draft?
02:19Now I want to say a couple of things before I answer Jimmy's question, because I think
02:23it's important.
02:25I said last year, before the season was over, Brian Hoyer and Jimmy Garoppolo would not
02:31be back.
02:34That was no secret.
02:36I said they should sign a veteran and get a rookie.
02:39That's no secret.
02:40I have said that and maintained it all along.
02:43I have also said, if they feel that there is a foundational quarterback in which they
02:51have no reservations, health, off the field, whatever, you go get that guy.
02:58You go get him.
03:01I stand by that.
03:03There have been some people that said, well, if they pick Panics, boy, Hondo's going to
03:06be upset because he keeps telling everybody what his drafters tell him.
03:11I'm giving you information.
03:12I'm void of opinion here.
03:16But I've also been very warning.
03:18If you don't feel like you have a generational franchise quarterback, you don't take a risk.
03:25Remember, my job is to present all the information and then allow you, the fan, have the privilege
03:31of saying, oh, this is a generational foundational guy.
03:34Go get him.
03:35Okay, that's cool.
03:36I don't care if you feel like it's Milton.
03:38I don't care if you feel like it's Rattler.
03:40I don't care if you feel like it's Jaden Daniels, whomever you think it is.
03:44Great.
03:45You're entitled to that opinion.
03:47And I don't minimize it.
03:50My job is to present to you, this is what the people that I respect are telling me.
03:55Here's where the evaluations are.
03:57And then you make the opinion.
03:58You make the judgment.
04:00I like Michael Panics.
04:03He is a great kid.
04:06Great kid.
04:07And he's a great quarterback.
04:09I've also pointed out, which is legitimate, if he didn't have all of his injuries, he'd
04:13be a candidate for the number one overall quarterback in this class.
04:18But four season-ending injuries, both shoulders, both knees, is a huge concern.
04:24Now if the Raiders say, nah, we're good with it, great.
04:27I have no problem with that.
04:28I'm not going to be critical of that pick unless it doesn't work.
04:34Then you've got to go back and say, okay, this was the warning signs.
04:38The Raiders ignored that.
04:39And it worked for them or didn't.
04:41Either they're going to get all the praise or all the blame.
04:45Remember last year when Josh McDaniel signed Jimmy Garoppolo.
04:48I said, this does not appear to be a wise pick when talking to people around the NFL.
04:53But they deserve, if this is their guy and they're confident and they put their future
04:58in them, they deserve that.
05:00You can go back and watch those podcasts.
05:02I said that numerous times.
05:04It didn't work.
05:05They got the blame.
05:06They're not here.
05:07Now, when I got off the plane, I had heard from three of the four guys I sent it to.
05:12And then moments ago, just heard from the four.
05:14So these are four NFL executives who I trust.
05:22They're men that I know.
05:24And they're men that have a proven track record, some better than others, but they all are
05:28proven at the quarterback position.
05:31Here is the question that I sent them.
05:34Had one of my listeners today asked me, where would Aiden O'Connell rate in this class if
05:42you were drafting today?
05:44Please include all information that you saw from last year.
05:49Okay?
05:50Four different guys.
05:51Here is the first.
05:53This is a great question.
05:54I agree with you, Hondo.
05:56Whoever asked it, you should let them know.
05:59I think it was a great question.
06:01So there you go, Jimmy.
06:04I liked Aiden O'Connell last year.
06:06I liked him better the year before when we had a first round grade on him.
06:12But I understood last year, he didn't have the talent around him.
06:15Purdue had a harder schedule.
06:17The death of his brother.
06:18There were a lot of things.
06:21After what I saw last year, I would have Aiden O'Connell worthy of a top 10 pick this year.
06:31I understand there were some things that he didn't do.
06:36But I've heard you use the analogy before, a quarter horse would blow away a thoroughbred
06:42in a quarter mile race.
06:44But a thoroughbred would destroy a quarter horse in a mile and a half race.
06:49It's two different horses for two different lengths.
06:53A lot of people would be critical of Aiden O'Connell for several things he didn't do
06:57last year.
06:59And I would agree he didn't do them.
07:02But what I would say is this.
07:05They could not revamp the playbook.
07:08They couldn't go out and add talent to what they wanted to do, even though it was clear
07:12they were changing the scheme.
07:15He did what was asked.
07:18No matter how you cut the tomato, football is about winning and losing.
07:25I don't remember Al Davis saying, just lose sexy or just win ugly.
07:33Al's motto was just win baby.
07:36He went three and one against the AFC down the west, eight touchdowns, no interceptions.
07:45Last five games, nine touchdowns, one interception.
07:49You can clearly point to games where the offense was unproductive.
07:54No one seems to mention the changing scheme, injured players, staff, et cetera.
08:02Everyone played into it, including there were some mistakes by Devante and other players.
08:08The point is he was three and one against the AFC west.
08:15You saw what he did, which was exactly what he was asked.
08:20He did it in a playoff atmosphere, and he did it with the bullets and shrapnel going
08:28off around him.
08:30I have him as a clear top 10, but to be safe, top 15 for sure.
08:37That's the first one.
08:40Here's the second one.
08:42That is a fantastic question based on what I saw last year and understanding the dynamics
08:49of what was going around with him with the Raiders.
08:54You know how much I loved him in college.
08:57I saw nothing last year that would make me say he can't be a QB one.
09:04There are still things I need to see, but all of the quarterbacks in this draft have
09:11questions and issues as well, and none of them have done it in the pros.
09:17Aiden has.
09:19If I was the Raiders sitting at 13 this year and Aiden O'Connell got to me, that's a no-brainer.
09:27You make that pick.
09:29That's another one.
09:31Here comes another.
09:35That question to me is very logical.
09:39I like to live in a logic-based question and answering atmosphere.
09:45To me, it would be very clear.
09:49First-round talent.
09:51There may be one guy, possibly two in this draft, that I would take ahead of him, but
09:58he could be one, two, or three.
10:04And here's the last one.
10:07Great question.
10:08To me, he would be the second-best quarterback on my board this year.
10:14There you go.
10:15Now, that's coming from people who are executives, who are planning for the draft, and we're
10:33successful.
10:35Again, I have told you all along.
10:41I am not a cheerleader for Aiden O'Connell, but I'm also not a hater.
10:46That's not my job.
10:48My job is to present to you information.
10:52There are a lot of people around the league that think the Raiders are zeroing in on a
10:56couple of guys that they could potentially pick.
11:00There are also a lot of guys that say, man, there's some reservations there.
11:03It's going to be a home run or a strikeout.
11:09And so, whatever they do, I'm going to be, okay, great.
11:15Great.
11:16Whatever they do.
11:18If they say I'm going to pick Byron Murphy, the defensive tackle from Texas, to be our
11:23quarterback, okay.
11:24You've got 20 games.
11:25If it works out great, if it doesn't, be just like with Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo.
11:33I don't think you can evaluate a quarterback fully within that period, unless he plays
11:37all 20.
11:40But the point that I'm making is, whatever the Raiders do, whatever they do, they're
11:48putting their careers on the line.
11:50I'm not.
11:51And you're not.
11:52You're not.
11:53Whoever they pick is their choice.
11:56Whoever they pick is their decision.
12:03You may go back and say, I called it this, or I called it that.
12:08Fine.
12:09But unless you keep all the things called, then you saying you called it on one thing
12:14is irrelevant.
12:16I used to laugh when I used to do Raider Nation radio.
12:20People would call in, I'm never rooting for this team again until Derek Carr is gone.
12:25Ever.
12:27I'm done.
12:29But they still would watch and root and still complain about Derek.
12:33But what is it?
12:35You can't call it on one thing and then point out everything that you missed it on.
12:39That's what I love about the digital age.
12:41I have no problem being accountable for what I predicted or said.
12:47That's why I'm constantly reminding you about what my predictions are.
12:51I said last year, I thought the Raiders would go nine and eight, they went eight and nine.
12:55I was off by one.
12:58And the year before, I was very bad.
13:00The previous year, I was right on the money.
13:03The year before, I was on the money.
13:05And the year before that, I was off by one.
13:09Right in that sweet spot.
13:12I don't have a problem being held accountable.
13:15But I need you to understand, I'm not rooting for anyone in this.
13:19I think the Raiders, and I said it, go get a veteran, go get a rookie, let everyone compete.
13:26I don't think there's enough to just give the job to Aiden.
13:31Plus, you got to have more than one quarterback in the modern NFL.
13:36But I think Aiden has earned the right to go into these camps as one full fair competition
13:43and let them beat them out.
13:45Now, I for one, think that Aiden, his whole career, high school, college, last year in
13:52the pros, every time he's been counted out, he's proved people wrong.
13:58Okay?
13:59Now, it's no secret, I have a friendship with Kirk Cousins.
14:03I've known Kirk and his family a long time.
14:05Kirk did it in Holland, Michigan.
14:09He did it at Michigan State.
14:11He did it at Washington.
14:12Went in the same draft.
14:13They picked Robert Griffin in the first round, they picked Kirk later.
14:17He's done it everywhere he's gone.
14:18I like guys that like to compete.
14:21I like guys that aren't afraid to compete.
14:24Aiden O'Connell made it really clear.
14:28Hey, I might have to compete anyway, so I don't really care who they bring in.
14:33This is about me keeping the job, not about them beating me.
14:36I love that.
14:39But I've also said, they need to go get that rookie.
14:41They need to go get that veteran.
14:42And I've also said, I've never said anything different, it's got to be a competition.
14:49Is there a guy that if I could move up, I would, but it's not my call.
14:56Is there a guy that I would select at 13, if he dropped, yeah.
15:03And well, whatever they do, it isn't a pro or an anti.
15:10This is where the media gets into it, and they need to keep that out of it.
15:14My job is to give you information.
15:16It's my job to present to you what successful drafters have said, so then if it works out,
15:23you could say, wow, okay, Telesco and Pierce are among the very good quarterback drafters,
15:29because a lot of people thought they were making a mistake and it worked out.
15:32Then guess what?
15:33Then their credibility with quarterbacks goes way up.
15:37And if they fail, you could say, okay, they don't have a good track record with quarterbacks.
15:41And if they fail, they're probably not going to be here.
15:45That's just the reality.
15:47I hope Tom Telesco and Antonio Pierce are here for 25 years.
15:51I hope I'm here too.
15:53Again, it's not rooting for or against, it's presenting the accumulation of information.
16:02I thought Jimmy's question was really good.
16:05So let's talk about the quarterback class.
16:08Okay, I told you when the season was over, the Raiders inquired about trades.
16:13That's why it was no secret.
16:14I told you in February and late January, February, really.
16:20So it was no secret.
16:21Those who listen to this podcast and follow our reporting at si.com forward slash NFL
16:25forward slash Raiders, you already knew this, no secret.
16:30You already knew it.
16:33And they knew the cost.
16:34And I told you for them to go to 13 to one was going to cost three ones and three twos
16:38at the time that the pick was available, it's not available anymore.
16:41And I told you prior to the cut to the combine, the Raiders wanted to make that move.
16:46They had to go to one and they had to do it now because it probably wasn't going to be
16:49available.
16:50And that's exactly how it played out.
16:52I've told you all along, I've heard that the, that the commanders would only move if somebody
16:59did something stupid, but they did not want to move.
17:02That has played out.
17:03I told you the same thing about the Patriots.
17:06Okay.
17:08I believe if the draft were to go today, it would be Caleb, Jaden, JJ.
17:14That's how I believe the draft will go.
17:17Now, could be a little bit of a difference with JJ, but that's how I believe the draft's
17:23going to go.
17:25So now the question is, what about Drake May?
17:32Arizona has been very emphatic, emphatic when people have called them that the pick's not
17:39available right now.
17:42I have a feeling on draft night, pending on who called, that could change.
17:50If they flipped with a New York Giants and then they thought, okay, we flip with the
17:58Giants.
18:00They move up, take JJ or Drake May and the Bolts take the tight end Bowers or whomever.
18:10Or let's say they take Marvin Harrison.
18:12Okay.
18:13If they like neighbors as much as Harrison, and I'm going to tell you this real quick.
18:18I am hearing a bunch of people tell me around the NFL that it's probably 60-40 among the
18:27league on whether it's Harrison or neighbors as the number one wide receiver.
18:32Now to me, I've seen a ton of Marvin.
18:37I've seen a ton.
18:39So to me, it's really close.
18:42To me, there are some red flags with Marvin, not character, like being a bad guy, just
18:47a couple of concerns that I would have, but I haven't seen as much neighbors.
18:52So to me, I'm 50-50 on it.
18:53I'm not trying to be a politician either.
19:01I'm literally 50-50.
19:04Now I want to show you something.
19:09So if they can say, well, we can move to six and still get the quarterback we want, I could
19:16see them doing that.
19:18I don't know how much farther they would be able to, they would be willing to move Arizona
19:24unless somebody is doing something stupid.
19:29If somebody's doing something stupid, well, God bless you then.
19:34Now I want to talk about, so where do the quarterbacks go?
19:42The quarterback people that I trust don't think Bo Nix is a first-round quarterback.
19:49I think that he's probably going to go in the first round.
19:54I'm just showing you what they think.
19:57Again, every quarterback draft evaluator that I like has Penix high, but he gets docked
20:05because of the injuries.
20:07I had one guy tell me, depending on the system you run, it doesn't even matter.
20:13Think about that.
20:14Depending on the system you run, it doesn't matter.
20:17He thinks Penix is exponentially better than Nix, exponentially.
20:22Those are his words.
20:25Anyways, I just think that's something to keep in the back of your head.
20:37Who's next?
20:38You got Jayden, Caleb, Drake, JJ, Bo and Penix, I think there's a good chance they're going
20:47in the first round.
20:49Okay?
20:50And again, wherever you think they should go is great.
20:54I'm not giving you Hondo opinion, I'm giving you the opinion of the others.
20:58So when you look at the quarterback situation and how everything can fall, then you have
21:05to ask yourself, okay, do the Raiders sit at 13 and hope somebody drops to them a quarterback
21:11that they like?
21:13Or if they're convinced, okay, we can't get to the top three, but we love Penix, great.
21:20Where do you got to go to get him?
21:21Seriously, where do you got to go to get him?
21:25You don't really know.
21:27So if he's your guy, you're willing to overpay because it's not overpaying.
21:34It's just the dynamics.
21:36That's all.
21:37And so I just wanted to answer Jimmy's question, I wanted to give it to you.
21:42Again, it's not a pro-Aiden, it's not an anti-Aiden.
21:46It's just what is the sentiment in the league?
21:50And I thought that was pretty interesting.
21:53There was a lot he didn't do, but he wasn't asked to do it.
21:59He didn't have all the practices, they were trying to change the scheme.
22:02And remember, I've already shared with you about how practice during the week isn't like
22:06you think.
22:09You come in on Monday, it's literally treatment.
22:15And you get there Wednesday, then you start to put the game plan in.
22:20You practice Wednesday and a little bit on Thursday, and then a walkthrough on Friday.
22:25And I mean, it's not even really a practice, literally not, it's just a walkthrough.
22:31There's just not a lot of time to change that stuff.
22:34Those are all legitimate things.
22:36Now if you don't think that Aiden's the guy, I don't care.
22:42And I don't mean that arrogantly, like I'm sitting here, oh, I know more than, no, I
22:46have no problem with that.
22:48The people I trust saw enough to say, wow, three and one against the AFC West.
22:53Look at what he did over the last five games.
22:58Several of them talk about those wins and things he did do.
23:04And it's six to one half dozen to the other.
23:09But I wanted to address quarterbacks today.
23:10I think it's going to be a fascinating draft.
23:13I am sitting here today as a 53-year-old man, and I don't know that I've ever been more
23:20fascinated by an NFL draft.
23:23Now tomorrow's podcast, we're going to have a lot for you, including I am going to give
23:32you a name that's rising that I think you're going to be fascinated about.
23:40It's a guy that we've talked to you about, but he's a guy that's rising among a lot of
23:46people.
23:47And don't miss tomorrow's podcast.
23:49It's going to be all draft.
23:51Again, I wanted to address that.
23:52I thought Jimmy's question was fantastic.
23:55Apologize for the lateness of the podcast.
23:57I hope you understand it was a travel day.
23:59We appreciate you.
24:01We're grateful for you.
24:02Please remember, go to HondoSR on IG and at HondoCarpenter on X, formerly known as Twitter,
24:10and make SI.com forward slash NFL forward slash Raiders the place you go to read all
24:14of our articles.
24:15I hope you guys have a wonderful day.
24:17God bless you.
24:18Thanks for joining us today right here on the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
24:22Thank you.